RedBridge Group/Accent Research have a large-sample Victorian state poll in the Financial Review, showing One Nation overtaking the Coalition since the last such poll in February. The primary votes all but record a three-way tie between Labor, up a point to 26%, One Nation, up three to 27%, and the Coalition, down two to 26%, with the Greens steady on 13%. Two-party results have the Coalition leading Labor 54-46, and Labor leading One Nation 52-48. Jacinta Allan records 17% favourable, 24% neutral and 59% negative (which the Financial Review says are the worst recorded for any leader other than Anna Bligh and John Cain, though on what basis is unclear), and Jess Wilson is on 31% favourable, 51% neutral and 18% unfavourable. Pauline Hanson was thrown in for good measure, recording 37% favourable, 17% neutral and 46% negative. The poll was conducted June 17 to 28 from a sample of 5516.
Further electorally relevant news from Victoria:
• The Liberal Party state executive meets tomorrow to decide whether to remove Moira Deeming as lead upper house candidate for Western Metropolitan. The Age reports a “broad consensus” within the party that she should be dropped, as there would have to be to get the required agreement of 75% of the executive’s roughly 20 members. Deeming’s defeat in an April preselection vote by restaurateur and Indian community figurehead Dinesh Gourisetty prompted a backlash on the right, and she was shortly able to recover the position when Gourisetty was obliged to withdraw. However, last week’s events appear to have damaged Deeming’s prestige. Pauline Hanson bluntly told Melbourne station 3AW today that the party “don’t want her”, and hitherto strong supporter Peta Credlin, who is married to state executive chair Brian Loughnane, “has let it be known that she is now done with Deeming”, according to Chip Le Grand of The Age.
• Sumeyya Ilanbey of the Financial Review reports Labor has written off nine seats, including several where the threat would presumably be from One Nation: Sunbury, Ashwood, Melton, Yan Yean, Glen Waverley, Hastings, Pakenham, Bayswater and Bass. The party is confident of 19 seats and targeting another 26, suggesting it is plotting a bare minimum path to a majority of 45 seats out of 88.
• Kieran Rooney of The Age reported last week that Labor internal research indicated the Nationals seats of Gippsland South, Murray Plains and Gippsland East were likely One Nation wins, with Shepparton, Benambra and Lowan “leaning orange”. Also in the latter category were Berwick, the Melbourne fringe seat held by former Liberal leader Brad Battin, along with Liberal-held Narracan, Warrandyte, Eildon and Rowville. No Labor seats were identified, but One Nation was acknowledged to be “a major problem for both sides of politics”. Liberal sources expressed high hopes for gaining Niddrie and Macedon from Labor.
• Ryan Bourke of the Herald Sun reports One Nation “remains without a frontrunner” after an apparent failure to recruit as candidates Adam Giles, former Northern Territory Chief Minister and now chief executive of Gina Rinehart’s agricultural arm, and Heston Russell, former commando and founder of a party that ran at the last state election as Angry Victorians.
Hard to believe that the Deeming Disaster could get worse for the Victorian Liberals but … Chip Le Grand, who must be on full-time ‘Deeming watch’, reports in The Age :
“ Moira Deeming has launched legal action against the Liberal state president in a bid to prevent the party from disendorsing her as a candidate at November’s state election.
The embattled upper house MP will face the Supreme Court on Friday morning having lodged a case against Brian Loughnane, who took charge of the Victorian branch in May.”
This is beyond a joke – has Deeming ever laid a glove on Labor?
The only people she seems to have damaged in her political career are fellow Liberals.
I hope the Liberals stand firm and disendorse her – she can always run as an Independent if she believes that there is a vast ‘silent majority’ who support her views. And then she may finally see that she truly is beyond the pale for 95% of the electorate.
The looming possibility of a Liberal minority Government holding power with One Nation support distresses me, but if Deeming is in that mix that is a terrible prospect. So I hope at least that enough sanity prevails at Liberal headquarters that they finally force her to go her own way – maybe she can start her own party, as apparently One Nation wisely don’t want her either.
The people at least deserve to know who One Nation would make premier, should they be the main seat holder in a LNP-ON government.
“The people at least deserve to know who One Nation would make premier, should they be the main seat holder in a LNP-ON government.”
It doesn’t matter who occupies the seat, the marching orders will be given by Gina Rinehart.
Herald-Sun
“Senator Pauline Hanson has flatly ruled out offering Moira Deeming a One Nation candidacy, reprimanding the politician for a lack of loyalty after she previously agreed to defect before blindsiding One Nation to stay with the Liberals.”
Seems like one Moira Deeming’s few remaining options would be to join Adem Somyurek in the DLP.
If both the Liberals and One Nation cast her out, she has other options, thanks to Group Ticketing Voting not being abolished.
Kirsdarkesays:
Thursday, July 2, 2026 at 11:10 pm
Seems like one Moira Deeming’s few remaining options would be to join Adem Somyurek in the DLP.
________________
Not a bad speculation. I can totally see that happening. But if I was Somyurek I would be terrified of being alone with her in the party room.
Last I heard, Somyurek had left the DLP as of 2024
“But if I was Somyurek I would be terrified of being alone with her in the party room.”
He’ll be fine, Vicpol, IBAC, NACC and ASIO will have bugs everywhere they might be together.
Also, Somyurek announced he was retiring a few months ago.
Maybe should could go back to the DLP on one condition, the name becomes the Deeming Labor Party.
CNsays:
Thursday, July 2, 2026 at 11:21 pm
Last I heard, Somyurek had left the DLP as of 2024
_______
Oh right. Well she might inherit the mantle.
I wonder what the Teals plans are for the Vic Election?
Way things are going we could have seats going all over the place.
The chaos has not yet begun! The Libs are suing each other again…..
ON has no policies and no candidates.
This is just directionless anti-gumment sentiment.
The ALP will hold power after this election.
Are we sure Moira Deeming isn’t actually Jacinta Allan in an elaborate disguise?
MAWBM:
I don’t share your confidence on this one, but – my god- the Liberals sure do seem to be everything they can ensure they remain in opposition.
Man, if Allan does actually pull off a victory in November, the Sky News coverage will be something to behold.
That Age Newspaper Opinion Piece from Jacinta Allan.
What. The. Ever. Living. Fuck.
“I’m deeply sorry for what happened on Big Build projects. This is how we stop it happening again. If the goal is another report, another royal commission will deliver one. If the goal is changing behaviour on worksites, changing the culture is the answer.”
When the pundits write their obituaries on 29 November 2026, today will be the day on which it was agreed that Labor lost the 2026 Victorian election.
I do feel this needs to be said directly to Jacinta Allan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fub4hV0fCKM
My prediction:
Labor will win by as ON and the LNP divide their own seats among themselves. Once the election is actually called and the campaign starts the LONNP will collapse in a heap of steaming excrement.
Jacinta could very well lose her own seat, if she doesn’t retire before the election.
Labor will hang on to the periurban seats we are consistently told they will lose to LONNP candidates. The reason? Those seats are full of first and second generation immigrant POCs who get pretty sick of being told they are the problem.
This is not over yet, regardless of what the MSM keep telling us.
However, whichever party or grouping wins in 2026, will be absolutely trounced next time.
“I’m deeply sorry for what happened on Big Build projects.
____________
I don’t know what she’s talking about. According to many on here, nothing happened and it’s all a beat up.
> Rocket Rocket says:
> Thursday, July 2, 2026 at 10:55 pm
>
> This is beyond a joke – has Deeming ever laid a glove on Labor?
>
No. But she did have them in a headlock.
(Sorry, couldn’t help myself.)
So what exactly has happened ?
The allegations have been relentless.
The allegations are mostly untested and denied.
The allegations are all publicized by a tightly controlled central point.
The result of this latest Deeming/Liberal eruption will in part provide an indication as to where the next election is going.
Sky/Murdoch/nine/age need to make a formal takeover bid for the remains of the Victorian Liberal Party and make decisions regarding candidates for both the Liberals and ON.
What was it again that Dan did that was so awful ?
Jess Wilson has an opportunity to display her leadership credentials by officiating over Moira’s latest tantrums.
It will be interesting!
You’d think even One Nation would be able to find a better standard bearer for their Victorian branch than a blow-in from the Northern Territory whose main accomplishment was leading his party to one of the worst electoral defeats in recent history.
Deeming has now launched court action. Case to be heard at 9.30am.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-03/moira-deeming-matthew-guy-victorian-liberal-party-meeting/106870986
Also Pauline says No thank you about her join One Nation as they have Standards.
Headed for a pretty crazy result if these numbers stand up. They could change a bit given there so much weird stuff going on
Big build corruption questions and a very unpopular Premier, Liberal Party chaos, One Nation with no leader or candidates
The obvious answer is everyone should vote Greens, you know it makes sense
As the election date gets closer, it’s going to be interesting to see if that One Nation vote holds up. My guess is that, at least for the Victorian election, the One Nation vote will mostly evaporate. I guess they will win a few rural seats, but that the Coalition will win pretty comfortably.
It’s a very different scenario to in South Australia. In South Australia, a vote for One Nation could always safely be regarded as a protest vote. Whereas in Victoria, a voters could reasonably expect One Nation could actually win the election, and I don’t believe many people really want that, at least at a state level. I think the federal One Nation voters might remain more durable, as much of the electorate will do what they have to do to slash immigration. Even if that means voting in Pauline Hanson.
A celebrity couple appears to be getting married at New York’s MSG. Aunty’s keeping its listeners updated on News Radio. I can’t get enough of it.
Deeming is an out of control problem that was created by certain elements both within and outside the Victorian Liberal Party.
I have some sympathy for Pesutto and Wilson and Guy and some of the others who have struggled to deal with a problem that was not of their own creation. I have zero sympathy for the Liberal Party as a whole. It’s just another symptom of how the former “broad church” of the Libs has become increasingly dominated by one profoundly fundamentalist sect. Things aren’t going to be any better, as is epitomised by the elevation of Tony Abbott to the national presidency.
I suspect that there will be more Deemings in future for the Libs and Nats. Her propensity to go straight to court rather than to accept any ruling by her party’s hierarchy has opened up a path that others will no doubt follow in future.
I think it is truly time to start contemplating the demise of the Libs and their replacement by something else: perhaps whatever it is that Steggall and Spender come up with.
I suspect Labor’s list of One Nation danger seats is a false flag operation to deflect the Nats away from Bendigo East. One Nation might do well but Labor will do so much worse in regional Victoria. Hard to see them not coming third even after Green preferences. They can then deliver those seats to the LNP. With regards to South Gippsland – Danny O’Brien is very visible, very active and very popular – frankly all seems to be a Labor ruse.
Moira Deeming was basically a one issue activist who was endorsed by a major party. Activists do not make good party MPs – they stay hooked on their one issue and can’t see the big, broad picture. And their activism and passion also turns some voters off. The Greens have had this with Lydia Thorpe and Kathleen Maltzahn in the past.
The other side of the coin where activists go into mainstream politics and their passion gets too subsumed. They lose their moral authority and effectiveness on the issue. Peter Garrett is proof of that.
– SMH
Elliott, as the NSW police minister, endorsed strip searches of the young at music events. He said that he would even allow his own children to suffer this indignity. That said, he’s right about Taylor’s leadership being in peril, and not only for the reason he cites.
Nath
Yes it is a beatup. There are regular analyses of building project costs. Public infrastructure projects in Victoria are not an outlier in terms of cost. There are no doubt some problems, but no evidence of a systematic problem.
In my own analyses the worst problems have been in Sydney/NSW road and rail projects and Qld road projects. Both have unit rates much higher than Victoria (up to one third higher in Sydney).
Delivery of the Melbourne Rail Crossing Removal Project was highly efficient. It has been praised by international transport experts.
Victoria does have a debt problem, but it also lacks the mining royalties of Qld, NSW and WA.
That being said, Victoria does have a Moira Deeming problem. 🙂
Watching Maya Joint defeat Alexandra Eala was disappointing. Eala defeated her 3-6, 6-2, 6-0. In sets two & three, Joint made a heap of unforced errors. She was definitely not the player who beat Serena two days earlier. Part of the problem was a very partisan crowd of Filipinos watching the match. Joint’s doubles faults, for instance, were applauded. Apparently, Filipinos adore their sporting heroes, no better evidenced than by Manny Pacquiao.
Your summation regarding things Deeming and the the Liberals is very on the mark.
This latest attempt by Deeming to engage the courts will squeeze a little more from the Liberal debacle.
It was a beat up. Now Allan has said sorry it’s become a fact. The ALP will now find it impossible to avoid talking about corruption in construction and the union movement every single day right up to November’s election. It’s a classic Labor cave and own-goal.
Boy, 16, charged with murder over alleged stabbing
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/vic/2026/07/03/craigieburn-murder-charge
Time for useless Jacinta to be flushed away for good
The reason why Victorian Coalition hasn’t been able to fully capitalize on Jacinta is due to Jess Wilson saying she will to distance herself from Pauline Hanson and the party is ‘pro-multicultural’ in attempt to neutralize Labor’s attack for their stance but also angered anti-multicultural Liberal voters given the current environment with Conservatives to oppose multiculturalism. This is probably going to be the same issue for the NSW Liberals.
That should’ve read:
Watching Maya Joint being defeated by Alexandra Eala.
The whole thing is another example of Jacinta Allan getting stuck in crises management mode and never seem to be able to get ahead of events. Does Labor team want to win the election or not?
Agitprop:
I’m confused, did Allan stab the boy?
The way Moira deeming is going you’d think she’s a paid spy for vic labor!
Does anyone actually know the reason why she has taken the libs to the Supreme Court? What ground can she legally prevent her own party from booting her?
From what I’ve heard internally the Libs are confident this won’t be an issue and factored it into their planning of this whole thing but like what is moira angle here?
The Daniel Andrews / Peter Marshall IBAC
Case is back in the news today. The IBAC process is deeply structurally flawed but the whole case is a bad look for the Labor Government as there is an overwhelming sense that people want stuff hidden.
gollsays:
Friday, July 3, 2026 at 1:43 am
So what exactly has happened ?
_______________________
Try this one for starters.
The Age 03/07
Police have launched urgent inquiries into a suspected “inside job” leak from the CFMEU’s Melbourne headquarters to the criminal underworld designed to encourage violent or other reprisals against a former union organiser.
The leak last week, which has also involved the criminal distribution of naked images of a female union member across Big Build and commercial construction sites, is the most serious security breach to face the CFMEU administration.
So some allegations have been made, the police are investigating and you’ve added all the the flowery bits.
You are a worry “headlights”!
(“headlights” being my name for you);
As Wilson states, the boy was stabbed by the record levels of crime.
Deeming has managed to get a two week delay on her disendorsment after the Supreme court set a hearing for the 17th of July. May the farce be with you.
Have the Liberals ever consider just losing her paperwork when it comes to lodging the nominations? It has been known to happen…
So the murder weapon was statistics? I’m confused too.
Vic Lib never fail to surprise.
Deeming wins stay of execution as Liberal Party delays meeting on her future
Moira Deeming will remain a Liberal candidate for this year’s state election – for now – after the party agreed to delay by two weeks moves to disendorse her.
Lawyers for Liberal state president Brian Loughnane provided an undertaking to the Supreme Court on Friday that the party’s state executive would wait until the outcome of Deeming’s legal challenge before taking any further steps.
Deeming’s legal challenge has been set down for a one-day trial on 17 July.
The Age
If Jess Wilson can get rid of Deeming it might prove that she is capable of being Premier. Deeming is harder to move than an SS division.
Ms Wilson did not address the media on Friday, but on Thursday said she would not allow distractions as the Coalition seeks to topple Labor at the November election.
Reminds me of Zig and Zag
There’ll be no trouble.
And remember how that turned out.
Colleen Harkin, former Liberal candidate who defected to One Nation, was on ABC radio this morning touting One Nations education plan. This is apparently a work in progress but superior to the Liberals policy somehow.
There was something about limited the number of NDIS participant children per class to 1. This is going to be extremely difficult to do as there are simply more NDIS students than classes in the state.