The monthly DemosAU federal poll for Capital Brief has One Nation gaining two points to yet another new peak of 30%, with Labor up a point to 27%, the Coalition suffering a devastating five-point knock to fall to 18%, and the Greens steady on 13%. The pollster produces an estimated seats outcome from its polls based that makes use of data from its detailed quarterly MRP polling, and it has Labor on 71 to 81 seats, One Nation on 54 to 63, the Coalition on four to 11, the Greens on zero to four and others on four to eight. Respondents were also asked how they would vote with Tony Abbott leading the Coalition, with hardly little difference to the result.
Leader ratings record a deterioration for all three: Anthony Albanese is down one on positive to 26%, down one on neutral to 25% and up two on negative to 49%; Angus Taylor is down six to 22%, up five to 50% and up one to 28%; and Pauline Hanson is down two to 37%, down two to 23% and up four to 40%. A three-way preferred prime minister result has Albanese up a point to 35%, Taylor down four to 19% and Hanson up one to 28%.
Questions about the budget measures were again posed, recording a deterioration in support for all three: support for the negative gearing measures down two to 32% with opposition up two 31%; support for changes to capital gains tax discounts is up one to 29% with opposition up four to 33%; and support for the maximum 30% tax rate on family trusts is down three to 24% with opposition up seven to 41%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1497.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll also has One Nation smashing another series record with a two point gain to 31.5%, with Labor down one to 27%, the Coalition up half to 17.5% and the Greens down half to 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead over One Nation narrows from 53-47 to 51-49, while its leads over the Coalition are in from 54.5-45.5 to 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 54.5-45.5 to 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1575.
No idea who this character is. A perspective regarding starmer
This Tweet from zei-squirrel.
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Keir Starmer began his ascent as a Zionist sleeper cell agent of the Israel lobby. His job was to stay in Corbyn’s cabinet and sabotage it from within, and he was very successful through pushing the “second referendum” poison pill ahead of 2019 (and then never talking about remain again). But the job was not yet finished, Corbyn remained popular among the Labour mass base. So he put himself forward as a candidate for leader to replace Corbyn as a orthodox Corbynite. Some may be cynical, like that damn squirrel on twitter, but I know what to do to ease peoples’ minds: I will make 10 firm concrete socialist left pledges, from nationalization to abolishing tuition fees, and I will put my signature underneath each of them and vow to be a “competent” version of Corbyn that will win the election and implement the same policy platform. Owen Jones, the dumb fucking idiot hack he is and has always been, was bedazzled and rallied to his side.
Exactly as I and some others said he would do, he immediately began ripping up the “ten pledges” he made and that he was elected on. And then he began waging an all-out total war on the entire socialist left in the party, including Corbyn himself who was expelled for “anti-Semitism”, meaning for Starmer’s Israel lobby masters. And he revealed what he always already was, a neocon neoliberal Blairite Zionist Israel First scumfuck degenerate war criminal. Owen Jones himself “swung behind him”, and demanded “anyone with progressive sympathies” to do the same. Great political analysis again from our epic based radical leftist permanent Guardian sinecured hero, just like when he published a book shortly before the Gaza genocide saying that Zionism and Israel are Holy and Sacrosanct causes that the entire left, “anyone with progressive sympathies”, must support because otherwise you’re an evil anti-Semite who denies the “Jewish right to self-determination”, one of his many Zionist derangements. Thank God he was able to make millions off the genocide media grift.
Returning to Keir Starmer, he of course gleefully backed the genocide when it began, he instituted the most fascist censorship laws in modern British history in service of his Israeli Zionist Jewish supremacist masters, he gave them whatever they wanted without even a moment’s hesitation, because that’s the lowlife degenerate slave he is and has always been since his early epic pseudo-radical Trot days in Oxford.
This is not a deserving end for him, and all those who supported him. No, it’s far from it. A fitting end is being arrested and charged and judged in accordance with the Nuremberg principles that hanged Julius Streicher and co.
HBG has caused me to reflect on the similarities and differences between the UK and Australia.
While we both speak English and a large proportion (if not the majority) of the population comes from a similar cultural background, there are many differences. Britain has the class system which still persists. The best Australia can muster is to boast about convict heritage. And Empire. Britain is an ex-Empire. While Australia had moments, we don’t have a faded sense of vainglory that causes people to stubbornly reject progress. As a multicultural society, we have many different pasts.
These differences are why I think we should be alright in Australia. Just an opinion. That and the best electoral system and process in the world 🙂
Howard Stutz
@howardstutz
When you’ve lost Miriam…
Columnist in Adelson’s Israel Hayom rips Trump as a failure.
Adelson has donated more than $100M to Trump
You could have been the greatest president of all, but you failed
From israelhayom.com
3:05 AM · Jun 21, 2026
52.1K
Views
https://x.com/howardstutz/status/2068530627243332056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2068530627243332056%7Ctwgr%5E9cd311aa04ce5ec0f25b5adefa49cbe4ebd40ad6%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2026%2F6%2F22%2F800058727%2Fcommunity%2Fabbr%2F
You could have been the greatest president of all, but you failed
Mr. President, you have gravely harmed the human interests of the enlightened world, and you may be remembered forever as the president who brought about America’s humiliation. You betrayed us, the Israelis. And in a single moment, the contempt you once faced suddenly seems so justified and logical. Danny Zaken writes to the US president.
https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/06/18/you-could-have-been-the-greatest-president-of-all-but-you-failed/
Victoria says:
Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 9:11 am
That is toxic dribble.
Sky says:
Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 8:57 am
(looks at the PV bludgertrack at the bottom of the page)
….. I’m not seeing this supposed bleeding of primary votes from the ALP on the left due to the “abandonment of their base”. They’re burning political capital this term, sure, no question about that. But I think it’s fair to say it’s not on the Left flank. The UK comparison falls flat at the first hurdle
________
But our media tells us that the demise of the Coalition is Australia’s problem!
SpaceX down 16% today. $154.60. Heading towards the issue price fast. Lots of people are going to get burnt by this. Elon is just another con artist with a cult following.
SpaceX shares have dropped 16% today from ~$176 to ~$154.
This is the third successive day of price drops.
Geez, are we really going down the anti zionist = anti semite path again ?
Faiman,
Great minds think alike.
Imo Angus Taylor has always been a National in disguise. He has nothing in common with people in the cities.
Alina said she would bend over backwards for Vlad…
Keir was your archetypal vacuous centrist.
Very ok with literal actual genocide.
Hated the centre, centre left with an unhinged viciousness.
Thought he was better than everyone else, above politics.
Actually was useless, with no f*cking clue.
I think there’s a few parallels with Starmer and Albo. Both have abandoned their left base.
Albo is fast approaching lame duck territory that finished Starmer.
“Poor” Angus has little in common with most everyone, excluding Barnaby,and his friend from university in UK and his contacts with the fresh meat contacts(contracts).
So I guess no “Righteous Among The Nations” award for Donald, eh?
KB’s 2PP estimate for the Morgan poll placed Labor behind ON. This continual uptick seems so irrational and contrary to the laws of gravity. I really struggle to understand how we’ve gotten here so soon after an election where a key takeaway was that the libs went too far the right!
Rex:
I would argue that there are lots of reasons for being critical of Israel, particularly under Netanyahu in recent years.
However, there are people on the political left in some western nations – Britain more than any other – who are obsessively anti-Israel beyond all proportion. I don’t believe they are purely driven by anti-semitism: anti-Americanism also as a great deal to do with it. But their attitudes are way over the top given how many things there are in this world that people can rightly get upset about (eg, what’s happening in Ukraine, Sudan, other parts of Africa, etc.)
And these people seem to feel no shame about the anti-semitism of their forebears over many generations which generated horrors such as the Spanish Inquisition, the pogroms and the Final Solution.
Proportionate anti-Zionism is one thing. But you must know in your heart that, for many on the far left of Western politics, it goes way beyond that.
From the Guardian:
__________________
Jonathan Freedland has an excellent account of where it all went wrong for Keir Starmer. Here is an extract.
……Perhaps there was a time when voters would have given a newly elected PM a few years to turn things around, but those days are long gone. The electorate is impatient now, demanding almost instant results. That process has been intensified and accelerated by social media, which does not merely put the worst possible gloss on the actions and motives of those in its sights, but distorts public figures out of all recognition. Labour canvassers for the May elections were shocked to find voters who were not just disappointed in Starmer but harboured a visceral loathing for him – who saw him in almost demonic terms. They were reacting to an invention untethered to reality, but one pushed and promoted by Elon Musk and his X platform especially.
Given all that he faced, historians might be impressed with what Starmer achieved. In his resignation speech, he highlighted his transformation of the Labour party, the fall in NHS waiting lists and the lifting of half a million children out of poverty, along with a raft of workers’ and renters’ rights that, say Starmer’s advocates, sits at the centre of a record of progressive accomplishment that bears comparison to the first two years of the 1945 government. They also credit Starmer with boosting Britain’s standing on the world stage, the canny statecraft that kept Donald Trump’s US engaged on Ukraine and which kept the UK out of Trump’s doomed war with Iran – a decision that takes its place alongside that of Starmer’s hero, Harold Wilson, to abstain from the war in Vietnam. At all this, say Starmer’s friends, he was brilliantly adept. But, sighs one, “This is not an age of substance, it’s an age of sheen – and he was just not very good at that.”
________________________
In places it was definitely questionable, but at least it showed an understanding that genocide is wrong, a bar many many others have failed to meet.
When you’ve lost Miriam…
Columnist in Adelson’s Israel Hayom rips Trump as a failure……..
You could have been the greatest president of all, but you failed
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I have been late to watching Homeland. Watched the first 4 seasons now over the last few months. I was intrigued by the idea of having contacts in the IRGC and the concept of doing deals with brutal adversaries.
It has occurred to me that Vance may well be one of the most consequential VPs of all if he can bring Iran in from the cold (in fact, Vance and Pence the two most consequential of all – imagine that). Obama wasn’t allowed to do this by the very political party that Vance represents. But, you know, it was only the ALP that was going to be able to do the economic reforms that for so long were anathema to the party base.
I know, I know. ‘Vance bringing peace to the ME’ & ‘Iran’s regime cooling its regional destabilisation’ must mean I am cooked. Or simply that the mornings coffee isnt up to the task. Or it is a seniors moment come early.
As you were.
What a giant of an imagination.
yabba
I think it’s a little unfair to blame the electorate. It was Starmer’s own party that wasn’t prepared to give him time to turn things around and which has grasped in desperation for someone who wasn’t even in Parliament.
Ven 9:16am
I am in no way a Trump fan, but that story about US Israel supporters being angry at Trump is laughable. They should be much more angry at Netanyahu. He caused this mess.
By all reports I have read Netanyahu convinced Trump to join Israel in attacking Iran. The initial strikes targeting was based on Israeli intelligence. The whole Iran war looks like a plan cooked up by Netanyahu to distract Iran and the world while Israel launched an invasion of Lebanon.
BB
It doesn’t take much imagination to see a bunch of middle class white people turning out each weekend to protest against Israel, none of whom have lifted a finger to protest against Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Most of these people no doubt had parents or grandparents who used to refer to Jewish people in sneering tones as “the Yids” or “the Chosen Race.”
QED in my view. Anti-semitism is a horrendous mind virus that has affected the consciousness of western people for many, many centuries. Only a fool would believe that there’s no risk of their being infected by it.
Boerwar, Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 8:48 am
Using them up that way leaves Russia at the mercy of the remaining nuclear powers, for the rest of time. If Putin ordered Russia’s functioning nuclear arsenal to be wasted in that way, he’d be eliminated as Russian ruler immediately, from within.
B. S. Fairmansays:
Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 9:31 am
The really annoying thing about this one is that, even though I would never be stupid enough to buy into a Musk company myself, the scale of the issue may have seen some industry super funds, including mine, do just that.
This morning I looked at the latest BludgerTrack and then read the comments here about how Labor under Albo is the best thing since sliced bread and is guaranteed to romp home again at the next election. No worries!
While both of these could easily be wrong, I can’t see how they can both be correct.
Which I guess means that many here apparently think it is BludgerTrack that is wrong.
Socrates, Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 8:40 am:
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Thank you, Socrates. I think it is important you (and others) raise the question of the readiness of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, because the Kremlin ruthlessly deploys the merest possibility of their use of it to frighten the West out of acting robustly to remove Russia’s military presence from Ukrainian territory. If it is a completely hollow threat, the West needs to recalculate the actual risk involved in any hypothetical decision to intervene more directly to help tjhe battered Ukrainians repel the Russian invasion and occupation of their country – say, by missile strikes against Russian military positions in Ukraine.
Frankly when England has seen several racist progroms break out in the last two years, terrorising the country and burning down homes and public property, it’s not good enough to have someone like Keir who is sympathetic to the ultra-racists sitting in the chair. I imagine people are rightfully fed up and for as many as there are angry at immigration, there are those who are fed up with the anti-immigration terrorists holding their communities hostage every time a dark-skinned english person commits a crime.
@Player One – BT is a nowcast. It predicts what would happen if an election were to be held now.
It makes no attempt to forecast what will happen at an election held in the future.
People may be taking into account expectations, based on doorknocking campaigns, media coverage of an election campaign, advertising blitzes, any state/Territory elections between now and the election etc.
I don’t think ON can nominate ~175 candidates, and get through 6 weeks of the media asking them policy questions, without crumbling.
Do you?
Player One says:
Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 9:59 am
Which I guess means that many here apparently think it is BludgerTrack that is wrong.
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I say the opinion polling companies are following the same error of assumption/narratives , as the 2025 pre federal election
This comments section:
It’s exactly 10 years since the Brexit referendum.
UK per capita GDP before and after, compared with other G7 countries. (The collective big dip is, of course, covid.)
MB
Well I am firmly against religious based political monocultures.
Basically I support a one state solution of open democracy and multicultural tolerance.
Hopefully after I’m dead there’s smarter people in the Middle East more interested in tolerance than domination.
Kevin Bonham:
Graphics are circulating showing high One Nation support among “Other Language At Home” in the recent #DemosAU poll. This was an error in a graph issued by the pollster. The correct numbers are 33% for English Only and 21% for LOTE.
And I suppose they take their grandkids to the Jewish Museum so they can gloat at dead Jews?
It takes a lot of imagination, MB. You’re just making this up.
In your giant of an imagination, you first invent a new demographic: Russia-supporting “middle class white people”. Then you foist upon them imaginary parents who used “sneering tones” about “Yids”, presumably teaching their children to think likewise?
The fact is that the classic anti-Semite comes from your side of politics, MB, ie. the Right (Nazis, neo-Nazis and all that, remember them?). I’m not saying you’re a Nazi, but look to the Right for your bogeyman, not the Left.
You’re peddling the new line put out by Israel of late that anyone who opposes Israeli foreign, domestic and/or military policy is a closet anti-Semite. I thought we got rid of that bullshit from this place a couple of months back?
There is a Peter Hartcher SMH article on the results of the Lowi survey on international relations and their support in Australia.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/this-is-the-australia-that-pauline-hanson-has-been-waiting-for-a-frightened-country-20260622-p6092n.html
I think the Stephen Dziedzic article in ABC is better.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-22/lowy-institute-poll-shows-record-low-trust-in-united-states/106820772
Both articles point out that Australians have little confidence in USA under Trump, with Trump (21%) now as (un)popular as China’s Xi (20%). It amuses me that Australians have slightly more confidence in Emanual Macron (59%) than Antony Albanese (53%). The Kier Starmer rating (50%) has not aged well.
Despite this, the US alliance, basing of US troops in Australia, and Australia getting nuclear submarines (68%) all remain popular. I wonder what happens when the AUKUS SSNs don’t show up? French SSNs anyone?
There are obvious domestic political implications: Australians do believe the world is less secure, but no longer believe the USA will necessarily protect us. This leaves Australians as an insecure feeling people.
The antisemitism royal commission has effectively shelved the interviews and findings of the three-week independent inquiry of former spy boss Dennis Richardson into the police and security agencies ahead of the Bondi Beach massacre. Royal Commissioner Virginia Bell’s inquiry did not consider the Richardson probe – which was launched immediately after the terror attack and included interviews with security and police heads – as “evidence” the commission could use in its findings.
Instead, it took the work of the former ASIO chief and leading diplomat as a guide and conducted its own interviews with the same people Mr Richardson interviewed, including former Australian Federal Police commissioner Reece Kershaw.
The interim security report in April did not rely on material Mr Richardson gathered as “evidence” in its findings and recommendations, which included a review of counter-terrorism operations between federal and state police. The decision not to use evidence from Mr Richardson has nullified much of his work and increased the chances of a harsher finding about security preparedness before the Bondi massacre.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/dennis-richardsons-bondi-report-abandoned-as-virginia-bell-reinterviews-exspy-chiefs-subjects/news-story/ccd1050e84bd73daaac06f493e652f47?amp
Guardian: In some breaking news, the Greens say they will support Labor’s negative gearing and capital gains tax changes this fortnight in the Senate, assuring the passage of the government’s contentious bill.
The Greens say in a statement they have also negotiated for the extension of the NDIS inquiry until 14 August, and say they will keep pushing for the government to drop their bill entirely.
Greens treasury spokesperson Nick McKim said: Backing this bill puts an end date on these tax breaks – but Labor’s low ambition means that inequality and the housing crisis will be worse for longer. This enduring housing crisis will be squarely of Labor’s design.
I think we saw bits of this chart yesterday, but it also deserves to be on this thread.
It’s interesting to compare the “Australia” averages with individual indicators that are notable above or below that average.
I think we saw bits of this chart yesterday, but it also deserves to be on this thread.
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Also important to note then that the last line is shown differently in the actual report (where the ON 35 and ALP 21 are the other way around).
From Luigi’s chart, it looks like Labor have some old-fashioned political demolition work to do on One Nation.
Voice Endeavour
A fair comment. I certainly don’t think BludgerTrack indicates that No Notion will win the next election. But many of us here at Poll Bludger (including me) use BludgerTrack as a measure of current voter sentiment. And that sentiment is clearly shifting hard against Labor as well as against the COALition.
And that change in sentiment will be reflected in the result of the next election. It is just that this far out we don’t know by how much. But if I was a Labor MP, I would already be worried.
And although the details differ, the parallels with Starmer and Labour in the UK are interesting. The key takeout is that Milquetoast leaders do not do well when social media takes over from traditional journalism.
The recent stunt at the NPC (including that it could happen there of all places!) actually tells us a lot more than just what was written on the banner.
The Demos chart has now been corrected on the landing webpage of the report with a….
“Note: This table has been updated. An earlier version unfortunately had the incorrect figures in the Other Language at Home row. This has now been corrected. We apologise for any confusion.”
“Chad Saladsays:
Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 9:41 am
KB’s 2PP estimate for the Morgan poll placed Labor behind ON. This continual uptick seems so irrational and contrary to the laws of gravity. I really struggle to understand how we’ve gotten here so soon after an election where a key takeaway was that the libs went too far the right!”
I strongly doubt KB’s 2PP estimate. Morgan’s respondent directed ALP-ON 2-PP is outperforming the Libs by 3 points (51-49 to 24-46). In all likelihood this points to the more recent increase in ONs PV being Labor voters shifting to ON. On the other side, the residual rump of people still saying they will vote Liberal are the ones more likely to preference Labor ahead of ON.
Thus far, ON have done well to exploit economic grievance while having a track record of opposing everything that actually addresses economic disadvantage.
Meanwhile
Tucker Carlson announces he is leaving the Republican Party.
“How could I support a political party that is not loyal to the United States…there is no defending this. I’m out.”
The Overton Window is shifting decisively to the right. The notion that this is the result of a single stunt is entertaining. The true value proposition underlying the shift is that a party funded by a billionaire will fix cost of living by chasing out migrants and bastardizing Aboriginals while suppressing wages
Victoria, Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 10:55 am
Victoria – says someone whose loyalty is to Russia. Ironic.
Pauline Hanson has clarified she would not seek to cut government-funded paid parental leave if One Nation were in power, after opening the door to a wind-back at her National Press Club address last week. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-23/pauline-hanson-paid-parental-leave-support/106815018
Hanson backflips: