UK Makerfield by-election live

Can Andy Burnham win today’s by-election to become an MP? Also: further results from Californian and other international elections.

Live Commentary

12:23pm Tuesday Starmer has announced he will resign as Labour leader and PM once a new leader is chosen. Streeting won’t contest the Labour leadership. Nominations for the leadership open on July 9 and close a week later. Unless someone other than Burnham can win 81 signatures from Labour MPs, Burnham will become the next UK PM on July 16 or 17.

9:55am With 99.9% counted in today’s Colombian presidential runoff election, populist right-winger Espriella defeated left-winger Cepeda by 49.65-48.70, with the remaining votes invalid. The margin of under 1% for Espriella was less than polls predicted (4-8 point Espriella margins in polls taken after the first round result).

9:39am Monday According to media reports, Starmer is expected to set out a timetable for his resignation tonight AEST. This will probably allow Burnham to become Labour leader and PM without a contest. Wes Streeting would also like to be Labour leader, but can he get the 81 required signatures?

4:22pm A by-election for Greater Manchester Mayor will be required by August 6 after the mayoralty became vacant following Burnham’s win.

4:07pm To challenge for the Labour leadership, a candidate needs at least 20% of Labour MPs (81 Labour MPs in the current UK parliament). They need MPs to sign a petition, so supporters of a challenger can’t remain anonymous. The incumbent leader doesn’t need to meet this threshold. A membership ballot is then held by post, with the winner decided by preferential voting.

12:15pm Burnham (Labour) CRUSHES Reform in Makerfield by 20.3 points, far more than what any poll said. He got 54.8% of the vote, a clear majority.

11:23am The Tory who won Aberdeen South was elected to the Scottish Parliament on May 7, and will need to resign his seat there. But there won’t be a by-election as he was a list MP. His seat will be taken by the next Tory on the list.

11:19am The BBC says Labour is unofficially claiming victory in Makerfield with 54% of the vote.

11:02am The SNP have easily HELD Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. Labour was a close second in 2024, but their vote has collapsed.

10:57am The Tories have GAINED Aberdeen South from the SNP. Unionist supporters consolidated behind the Tories, who were narrowly third in 2024, as Labour’s vote collapsed.

10:44am The BBC says senior Labour MP Louise Haigh has said she is “quietly confident” that Labour has won the Makerfield by-election.

10:33am The BBC says Labour people are more optimistic about Makerfield.

10:10am Turnout in Makerfield was 58.8%, up 6.3% from the turnout in this seat at the 2024 general election. It’s very unusual for turnout to be higher at a by-election than the general.

9:50am The BBC live blog says that, according to party sources, the Tories are likely to gain Aberdeen South from the SNP at one of today’s by-elections.

9:45am Friday While we wait for the UK by-election results, there’s been more counting in the California 14 special election that occurred Tuesday. With 95% counted, Dems Wahab (with 42.8%) and Hernandez (with 16.8%) advance to the August 18 runoff. Overall, Dems beat Reps by 51.1 points, a 15.7-point swing to the Dems on margin compared with the 2024 presidential results in that seat.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 7am AEST Friday for a UK parliamentary by-election in Makerfield. This by-election was caused by the May 14 resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons to allow Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to run. If Burnham becomes an MP, he is expected to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.

At the 2024 general election, Labour defeated the populist right Reform in Makerfield by 45.2-31.8 with 10.9% for the Conservatives, 6.8% Liberal Democrats and 4.4% Greens. But at the May local elections, Reform won 50% in the eight wards within Makerfield.

Four recent Makerfield polls have Burnham leading Reform by 5-12 points, with Restore (another populist right party) on 5-8%. In the Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls, Reform leads with 27.4%, followed by Labour at 19.5%, the Conservatives 18.6%, the Greens 13.0%, the Lib Dems 12.3% and Restore 2.8%. The Greens have slid from a high of 15.9% in late March.

There will be two other parliamentary by-elections today, both caused by the resignation of Scottish National Party MPs after their elections to the Scottish parliament on May 7. In 2024, the SNP won Aberdeen South by 32.8-24.7 over Labour with 24.4% Conservatives, 6.9% Reform, 6.3% Lib Dems and 3.5% Greens. The SNP won Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by 35.3-33.4 over Labour with 15.5% Conservatives, 8.6% Reform and 5.1% Lib Dems.

US: further California results

In near-final results from the June 2 California jungle primary, Democrat Becerra (with 28.1%) and Republican Hilton (with 24.7%) advanced to the November gubernatorial election, with Democrat Steyer missing out with 22.8%. For Los Angeles mayor, incumbent Bass (with 34.3%) and left-wing challenger Raman (with 29.0%) advanced, with right-wing challenger Pratt missing with 25.5%.

At the concurrent federal special election for California 1, Republican Gallagher won 62.1%, avoiding a runoff by winning a majority. Republicans overall defeated Democrats by 27.5 points, a small swing to them from Donald Trump’s 24.9-point margin in this seat over Kamala Harris in 2024.

At Tuesday’s jungle primary federal special election for California 14, with 82% counted, Democrat Wahab has 42.4%, Democrat Hernandez 16.7% and Democrat Singh 13.2%. An August 18 runoff between Wahab and Hernandez will be needed. Overall, Democrats defeated Republicans by 75.1-24.3, a 50.8-point margin. This seat voted for Harris over Trump in 2024 by 65.8-30.4, a 35.4-point margin.

Denmark, Slovenia, Peru and Colombia electoral events

At the March 26 Danish election, the left-wing Red bloc of parties won 86 of the 179 seats and the right-wing Blue bloc 78 seats. With both blocs short of the 90 needed for a majority, the Moderates with 14 seats were the kingmakers. On June 2, a minority government was formed that included the Social Democrats (38 seats), the Green Left (20), the Moderates and the Social Liberals (ten). This was a hold for the Social Democrats.

At the March 22 Slovenian election, the liberal GS won 29 of the 90 seats, the right-wing SDS 28, the Christian NSi nine, the centre-left SD six, the conservative Democrats six, the left-wing Levica five and the anti-vaxxer Resni.ca five. A right-wing government led by the SDS was sworn in on May 22, with right-wing parties winning overall by 48 seats to 40. This was a gain for SDS from GS.

At the June 7 Peruvian presidential runoff election, right-winger Fujimori leads left-winger Sánchez by 50.1-49.9 with 99.4% counted. A Fujimori win would be her first win after three consecutive runoff losses. In the April first round, there was a fragmented field, with Fujimori getting 17.2% and Sánchez 12.04%, just ahead of the populist right Aliaga on 11.91%.

Legislative elections also occurred in April using proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Out of 60 senators, right-wing parties won by 30-23 over left-wing parties with seven for a centrist party. In the Chamber of Deputies, the right and left tied with 56 seats each out of 130 with 18 for centrists.

Incumbent left-wing Colombian President Petro was ineligible to run for a second term. At the May 31 first round election, the populist right Espriella won 43.7% and the left-wing Cepeda 40.9%. The runoff is on Sunday (Monday AEST). Polls have Espriella leading by 4-8 points.

142 thoughts on “UK Makerfield by-election live”

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  1. Labour sources are saying that they expect to win Makerfield with 54% of the vote, Hannah Al-Othman reports. That would be a nine-point increase on their share of the vote at the general election – a big, decisive win.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2026/jun/18/makerfield-byelection-keir-starmer-andy-burnham-robert-kenyon-labour-leadership-reform-aberdeen-arbroath-uk-politics-latest-news-updates#maincontent

    If true, this is a significant overperformance from the polls for Labour’s Andy Burnham (see my post above at 7:44am summarising that polling: 43-49%).

  3. Labour now suggesting that Burnham has won with 54% of the vote, which if true would indicate a big and decisive win. The bigger Burnham’s win, the more momentum he’ll build up in the leadership stakes.

  4. Hugoaugogo, Friday, June 19, 2026 at 11:25 am:
    ———————–

    Note the big overperformance from the polls. A ‘shy Andy’ effect? 😆

  5. Also, if Labour’s Andy Burham got >50% of the vote, any splitting of the far right vote was irrelevant to the outcome.

  6. New boy –

    Ha! It probably speaks more to the difficulties of polling individuals seats, combined with a late breaking of support towards Burnham by the undecided. Either way, if Burnham does end up winning (as now looks certain), it’s a huge fillip to Labour and progressive politics in the UK. Changing the leader doesn’t remove all of their problems, but having a leader with some level of charisma and a solid level of popularity will be a big upgrade. I feel a bit sorry for Starmer – he seems like a decent guy who from this distance has done a reasonable job in shitty circumstances – but he looks like he’s beyond redemption by now.

  7. When the leadership challenge starts, even if Starmer and nobody other than Burnham stands, they actually still need to run the process. That means the change won’t happen for at least 6 to 8 weeks.

  8. The number of challengers won’t really affect the length of the process, whether it’s two or ten. The only way to shorten the process to just a few weeks is for Starmer to stand down and Burnham to be unopposed.

  11. The Guardian is reporting rumoured vote shares of 54% Labour 35% Reform. If that’s true, it’s a shellacking, and a stonking win for Burnham.

  15. Forget Burnham overperforming the polls. If he gets 54%, that’s 9% higher than Labour got in the 2024 general election. If Labour got even half that swing in other seats around the country, they’re looking at a landslide win which would dwarf even that one.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c3928mlyle8t?page=3

    The caveat: a proportion of that 9% lift in Labour’s vote would have come from Green and LibDem voters voting strategically, which mightn’t happen at the next general election.

  16. Andy Burnham wins! A majority of more than 9000 votes, far bigger than the 2024 result, and a huge endorsement and vindication of the Manchester Mayor. He will be unstoppable now, and we can expect him to be moving into 10 Downing Street in short order.

  19. Burnham elected MP for Makerfield with majority of more than 9,000…

    … Labour won 54% of the vote to Reform UK’s 35%, while Restore Britain secured 7%. Turnout was 58.75% – six points up on the general election, with 45,510 votes cast.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2026/jun/18/makerfield-byelection-keir-starmer-andy-burnham-robert-kenyon-labour-leadership-reform-aberdeen-arbroath-uk-politics-latest-news-updates#top-of-blog

    ANDY!!

  20. Can’t be too many elections in England where both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have lost their deposits.

  22. Its a very solid win for Burnham. Bear in mind that in the recent local elections the Council including Makerfield swung to 50% reform. So Burnham has turned that around and got the Labor vote back to more than the last general election.

    If you were a UK Labour backbencher, Burnham vs Starmer is a one horse race. Burnham will win any leadership contest now. Starmer should leave gracefully.

  23. Andy Burnham wins Makerfield with a bigger % of the vote, of a bigger % turnout, than Labour did in July 2024. This is an emphatic electoral endorsement, especially for a candidate wh has never lived there. My point: Andy’s appeal is not based solely on local cred, and so is likely to be translatable across the country.

  24. Something of interest one of the candidates only got 8 votes.

    That’s 2 fewer than the number of people who signed his nomination papers to get on the ballot.

  25. Sucks that Tactical voting is a reality in UK elections, but it’s beautiful to see how Green and Lib Dem voters rallied around Burnham for the common good this election.

  27. Given the situation it would seem unlikely this result is useful for anything at all projection wise.

    We will get to see, probably, which of the Andy Burnhams rocks up at number 10 and if he can actually govern well, in the eyes of voters.

    Very interesting over two special elections the greens have shown they can win in Labor heartland, reform has failed twice. And the conservatives are over, at least in Labor heartland.

  28. Andy Burnham is already subtly reframing his victory as one of a national, rather than local, scale. He is saying things more often heard from a victorious PM than from a victorious MP :

    Everyone knows that politics isn’t working. Everyone can feel that the country isn’t where it should be. Tonight could, just could, be the turning point.

    From here on, I will give everything I have got to make it so, to ensure the name, Makerfield is forever synonymous with bringing about the change this country needs, bringing back something we’ve lost, hope. A hope for the future…

    … As your member of Parliament, I know people who traditionally vote for the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and perhaps more recently in May for Reform UK have given me their support in this election.

    I will always have respect to them … out of respect for them, I will always take a place first rather than a party first approach.

    And I will focus on problem solving rather than point scoring.

    And I will work hard after this by election to heal the divisions of this campaign and let it be really understood that I will be your MP however you voted.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2026/jun/18/makerfield-byelection-keir-starmer-andy-burnham-robert-kenyon-labour-leadership-reform-aberdeen-arbroath-uk-politics-latest-news-updates#top-of-blog

  30. 4th largest swing to the incumbent governing party at a byelection.
    —————————————-
    Is this a zero change from last election in a Left/Centre vs Right/FarRight?

    Still an impressive result considering how unpopular the government is.

  31. Starmer is similar to Abbott: a good Opposition Leader, but a poor Prime Minister. Farage will play down Burnham’s victory, but there’s no doubting his expected passage to No. 10 has received a bitter setback. And it goes to show that a credible candidate can make such a big difference. Starmer should do the right thing by his party and resign, and at an appropriate time, Burnham should have him elevated to the peerage. After all, he did have a thumping victory almost two years ago.

  32. Mavis –

    I don’t think it’s fair to compare Starmer to Abbott. Starmer was a much more conciliatory opposition leader, who was able to reunify his party afte tye Cobyrn debacle, and he’s actually had a quiet competence about his Prime Ministership, which, let’s not forget, has come in the middle of a post-Brexit rolling clusterfuck for the UK. What Starmer is poor at is politics, and so he hasn’t been able to turn his big majority into an authoritative force to change anything much. In gentler times, he may well have ended up having a significant premiership, whereas he’ll now probably be remembered for his squandered opportunities. I agree that a peerage would be a just reward for him.

  33. UK Guardian..

    We heard what’s coming next, because Louise Haigh helpfully set it out on the BBC; Starmer will be asked to agree an “orderly and managed” handover. (See 2.05pm.) Any negotiation ultimately depends on who has the power, and who doesn’t, and, in Labour politics, Burnham now looks unstoppable.

    So Starmer should announce his for Burnham and an orderly handover giving Burnham time to get new Labour policy in place..

  34. @Hugoaugogo

    I wouldn’t call Starmer conciliatory at all, his response to the Corbyn debacle was to literally tell everyone who liked Corbyn to get out. The problem Labour is having is that their members listened and aren’t coming back. The great hope for Burnham is that he can be conciliatory to those lost members while towing the Post-New Labour Starmerist line

  35. @Hugoaugogo, the thing is Starmer probably governed at the most ungovernable time which doesn’t work well with Stamer’s modest personality.

  36. Bean – I’m not talking about internal Labour politics, I’m talking about his approach as OL. Starmer wasn’t a wrecker like Abbott was.

  37. @Hugo

    Apologies, that makes sense then.
    Two years in and it seems to me that he wasn’t a wrecker because he largely agreed with everything the Tories were doing. It seems hard to tell the difference between the two governments sometimes, other than that the Tories were clowns but Starmer doesn’t make me laugh. Anyway, I hope they get better soon, it would help us out a lot by stemming the tide of migration from England.

  38. Unlike Sir Kier the tories didn’t misuse terror legislation to arrest hundreds of completely peaceful anti-genocide protesters, in part because they were knowingly complicit in a genocide.

    I was very very critical of Starmer as a complete fraud prior to his becoming PM and he has been much much worse than the appalling I predicted.

  39. The ball’s in Starmer’s court now. Will he resign with dignity or dig in and have to be dragged out in a 2-month leadership challenge?

    His net approval is -47, that’s the political graveyard.

  41. Burnham’s the next British PM, whether Starmer retires gracefully or digs in and demands a leadership contest. That result today in Mackerfield will make Labour MPs and tacticians think that Burnham’s their only hope of stopping a Farage victory in 2028 or 2029.
    How a PM Burnham would govern, that’s an open question – would he be more left wing than Starmer? What would be his approach to defence and foreign affairs?

  43. @Democracy Sausage at 2:20pm

    Best I can find at the moment is this from Wikipedia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Burnham#Political_views

    His 2026 views differ from his previous time in parliament from 2001-17, so I’m going from what it says about those.

    – Burnham has called for “stronger public control” over energy, housing, water and transport and has called for the nationalisation of Thames Water.
    – Burnham’s about the same as Starmer on trans rights and immigration.
    – Burnham wants electoral reform to be put in a manifesto and brought to an election, so no change this term.
    – Burnham wants to focus on revitalising Northern England.

    So roughly about where Starmer is at, but the big hope is that he’s been watching and listening over the past couple of years and play politics better than he did. The key difference is that Burnham would focus on the North, probably a key move to hold off Reform from winning too many seats there.

    My main hope is that he continues one of the few things that Starmer did right, supporting Ukraine.

  44. I recently watched a YouTube video in which Starmer was interviewed (on the topic of the video) and he really came across as somebody who knew what he was talking about but just doesn’t seem to be able to communicate it in a concise or relatable way. Instead he superficially comes across as dithering and a bit aloof. While he is clearly intelligent and qualified to manage a country, he just doesn’t seem to have good political skill. Back when Johnson was PM, I observed this and thought he was lucky when the Tory Government imploded like they did because I didn’t see him leading Labour to an election win otherwise. When they did win in 2024, I thought I’d give him a chance and maybe he’d grow into the role, but he still just lacks a that political skillset.

    Anyway, after the dust settles on this by-election, it’s time to get things moving. I’m agnostic on Burnham, TBH. It has nothing to do with ideology or weird UK Labour factionalism but rather my concern that there seems to be a lot of belief he’s made of teflon and that just being a squeaky clean centrist but from the north this time will make him unstoppable. I mean, obviously I hope he can turn it around and prove my doubts wrong (I know he won’t be the only candidate if there’s a leadership election but I am resigned to the fact that he would most definitely win the race.) I just hope the wrong lessons aren’t learned and they’re back to square one again next year, after the shine comes off of him.

  45. Exactly what sort of Prime Minister Andy Burnham might be is an open question. To a large extent, he’ll be bound by the Labour manifesto, the pre-election policy document that all the major parties put forward, as well as the economic straightjacket that the UK remains in. As Manchester Mayor, he has prioritised the local economy (much improved since he took over), homelessness (markedly down), and public transport (greatly increased bus network). I suspect his signature domestic issue would be reversing the privatisations of the last few decades (privatised water, for example, is a red hot issue in the UK), and possibly voting reform. Internationally, he’d probably follow a similar path to Starmer, trying to triangulate the competing stresses of Trump and Brexit, and continuing to support Ukraine, with perhaps some subtle shifting on Gaza, given he’ll be taking over when the tide of opinion on that front has probably moved a bit (even Trump is criticising Israel these days). In short, there will be a few high profile shifts in policy, but much of what the government does will be little changed. Where he might catch a break is that the economy is slowly improving, and Burnham might get to be the beneficiary of that.

    One thing in his favour is that he’s a big rugby league fan (#1 ticket holder at Leigh; he’s also a diehard Everton fan), which will give him something to talk about with Albo.

    Here’s an overview of his time as Mayor from the Manchester Evening News:
    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/how-good-mayor-andy-burnham-33940580

  46. All of the attention has been on Makersfield. I was not aware until today that there were two by elections in Scotland as well – both seats held by SNP. In Aberdeen South, the Tories have had a fairly comfortable win with over 50% of the vote – albeit on a low turn out. The first time the Tories have won a by election in Scotland since 1973. Labor won in Makersfield but they came fourth in both the Scottish by elections.

  47. Starmer didn’t unify anything. He split the party! He lost them the Gorton by-election.

    “If you don’t like the changes we have made, I say, the door is open, and you can leave.”

    And they left.

  48. Also wow, 54-34% win for Labour over Reform in Makerfield, that’s way above what polls were predicting.

    This by-election is a political earthquake for the UK that can’t be ignored.

    Unfortunately the 2 by-elections in Scotland are pretty much politically irrelevant in comparison.

  49. To me these projected results by the recalcitrant right wingers, denying education and science surely do not represent the broader society, hence this result seeking consistency of the protocols of government

    Within society we seek consistency – as individuals and as businesses

    Within those parameters of consistency we vote – for those representing Capital OR for those representing Labour

    In regards Starmer, to me he is impeded by his education – as a former Crown Prosecutor so dictated to by research and fact – and above the cut and thrust that is the blood sport of politics

    So he has not responded to the current recalcitrant right wingers in a cut and thrust manner of politics

    He presents in a measured way so, if you like, as a Crown Prosecutor presenting his case based on fact

    Being educated over and above the majority he is not cutting thru

    Hence his problem with the electorate

    Some people are just too clever, and I mean that in a most respectful manner so aka Rudd, leaving themselves open to criticism by the recalcitrant right who operate in the gutter of discord and division

  50. Does anyone know when Burnham can get the ball rolling.
    ie: Does he have to wait until he’s sworn in, or can we expect action well before then.

    Apologies, I haven’t read through the full blog, if someone has already covered/clarified this.

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