Live Commentary
12:23pm Tuesday Starmer has announced he will resign as Labour leader and PM once a new leader is chosen. Streeting won’t contest the Labour leadership. Nominations for the leadership open on July 9 and close a week later. Unless someone other than Burnham can win 81 signatures from Labour MPs, Burnham will become the next UK PM on July 16 or 17.
9:55am With 99.9% counted in today’s Colombian presidential runoff election, populist right-winger Espriella defeated left-winger Cepeda by 49.65-48.70, with the remaining votes invalid. The margin of under 1% for Espriella was less than polls predicted (4-8 point Espriella margins in polls taken after the first round result).
9:39am Monday According to media reports, Starmer is expected to set out a timetable for his resignation tonight AEST. This will probably allow Burnham to become Labour leader and PM without a contest. Wes Streeting would also like to be Labour leader, but can he get the 81 required signatures?
4:22pm A by-election for Greater Manchester Mayor will be required by August 6 after the mayoralty became vacant following Burnham’s win.
4:07pm To challenge for the Labour leadership, a candidate needs at least 20% of Labour MPs (81 Labour MPs in the current UK parliament). They need MPs to sign a petition, so supporters of a challenger can’t remain anonymous. The incumbent leader doesn’t need to meet this threshold. A membership ballot is then held by post, with the winner decided by preferential voting.
12:15pm Burnham (Labour) CRUSHES Reform in Makerfield by 20.3 points, far more than what any poll said. He got 54.8% of the vote, a clear majority.
11:23am The Tory who won Aberdeen South was elected to the Scottish Parliament on May 7, and will need to resign his seat there. But there won’t be a by-election as he was a list MP. His seat will be taken by the next Tory on the list.
11:19am The BBC says Labour is unofficially claiming victory in Makerfield with 54% of the vote.
11:02am The SNP have easily HELD Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. Labour was a close second in 2024, but their vote has collapsed.
10:57am The Tories have GAINED Aberdeen South from the SNP. Unionist supporters consolidated behind the Tories, who were narrowly third in 2024, as Labour’s vote collapsed.
10:44am The BBC says senior Labour MP Louise Haigh has said she is “quietly confident” that Labour has won the Makerfield by-election.
10:33am The BBC says Labour people are more optimistic about Makerfield.
10:10am Turnout in Makerfield was 58.8%, up 6.3% from the turnout in this seat at the 2024 general election. It’s very unusual for turnout to be higher at a by-election than the general.
9:50am The BBC live blog says that, according to party sources, the Tories are likely to gain Aberdeen South from the SNP at one of today’s by-elections.
9:45am Friday While we wait for the UK by-election results, there’s been more counting in the California 14 special election that occurred Tuesday. With 95% counted, Dems Wahab (with 42.8%) and Hernandez (with 16.8%) advance to the August 18 runoff. Overall, Dems beat Reps by 51.1 points, a 15.7-point swing to the Dems on margin compared with the 2024 presidential results in that seat.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.
Polls close at 7am AEST Friday for a UK parliamentary by-election in Makerfield. This by-election was caused by the May 14 resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons to allow Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to run. If Burnham becomes an MP, he is expected to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.
At the 2024 general election, Labour defeated the populist right Reform in Makerfield by 45.2-31.8 with 10.9% for the Conservatives, 6.8% Liberal Democrats and 4.4% Greens. But at the May local elections, Reform won 50% in the eight wards within Makerfield.
Four recent Makerfield polls have Burnham leading Reform by 5-12 points, with Restore (another populist right party) on 5-8%. In the Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls, Reform leads with 27.4%, followed by Labour at 19.5%, the Conservatives 18.6%, the Greens 13.0%, the Lib Dems 12.3% and Restore 2.8%. The Greens have slid from a high of 15.9% in late March.
There will be two other parliamentary by-elections today, both caused by the resignation of Scottish National Party MPs after their elections to the Scottish parliament on May 7. In 2024, the SNP won Aberdeen South by 32.8-24.7 over Labour with 24.4% Conservatives, 6.9% Reform, 6.3% Lib Dems and 3.5% Greens. The SNP won Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by 35.3-33.4 over Labour with 15.5% Conservatives, 8.6% Reform and 5.1% Lib Dems.
US: further California results
In near-final results from the June 2 California jungle primary, Democrat Becerra (with 28.1%) and Republican Hilton (with 24.7%) advanced to the November gubernatorial election, with Democrat Steyer missing out with 22.8%. For Los Angeles mayor, incumbent Bass (with 34.3%) and left-wing challenger Raman (with 29.0%) advanced, with right-wing challenger Pratt missing with 25.5%.
At the concurrent federal special election for California 1, Republican Gallagher won 62.1%, avoiding a runoff by winning a majority. Republicans overall defeated Democrats by 27.5 points, a small swing to them from Donald Trump’s 24.9-point margin in this seat over Kamala Harris in 2024.
At Tuesday’s jungle primary federal special election for California 14, with 82% counted, Democrat Wahab has 42.4%, Democrat Hernandez 16.7% and Democrat Singh 13.2%. An August 18 runoff between Wahab and Hernandez will be needed. Overall, Democrats defeated Republicans by 75.1-24.3, a 50.8-point margin. This seat voted for Harris over Trump in 2024 by 65.8-30.4, a 35.4-point margin.
Denmark, Slovenia, Peru and Colombia electoral events
At the March 26 Danish election, the left-wing Red bloc of parties won 86 of the 179 seats and the right-wing Blue bloc 78 seats. With both blocs short of the 90 needed for a majority, the Moderates with 14 seats were the kingmakers. On June 2, a minority government was formed that included the Social Democrats (38 seats), the Green Left (20), the Moderates and the Social Liberals (ten). This was a hold for the Social Democrats.
At the March 22 Slovenian election, the liberal GS won 29 of the 90 seats, the right-wing SDS 28, the Christian NSi nine, the centre-left SD six, the conservative Democrats six, the left-wing Levica five and the anti-vaxxer Resni.ca five. A right-wing government led by the SDS was sworn in on May 22, with right-wing parties winning overall by 48 seats to 40. This was a gain for SDS from GS.
At the June 7 Peruvian presidential runoff election, right-winger Fujimori leads left-winger Sánchez by 50.1-49.9 with 99.4% counted. A Fujimori win would be her first win after three consecutive runoff losses. In the April first round, there was a fragmented field, with Fujimori getting 17.2% and Sánchez 12.04%, just ahead of the populist right Aliaga on 11.91%.
Legislative elections also occurred in April using proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Out of 60 senators, right-wing parties won by 30-23 over left-wing parties with seven for a centrist party. In the Chamber of Deputies, the right and left tied with 56 seats each out of 130 with 18 for centrists.
Incumbent left-wing Colombian President Petro was ineligible to run for a second term. At the May 31 first round election, the populist right Espriella won 43.7% and the left-wing Cepeda 40.9%. The runoff is on Sunday (Monday AEST). Polls have Espriella leading by 4-8 points.
This is a very, very consequential by election. It could very well decide not only the occupant of Number 10 for the next three years, but for the next five years after that as well. If Starmer stays in situ, Farage is much more likely in 2029.
Go Andy.
Interesting numbers here about Keir Starmer’s approval ratings sorted by those who voted for which party in 2024.
(More In Common poll for 5-9 June)
Does/will Burnham have the numbers in the event of a spill? I haven’t been following closely
It doesn’t look good that Labour UK doesn’t have a replacement in the party right now. Even in Labour here where there is no threat to Albanese, you could easily imagine quite a few cabinet members taking on the top job.
Anyway, i’m sure it will be close, I am slightly favouring Reform here purely on the belief I have that voters generally don’t like extra elections. I hope that I’m wrong. I don’t really like Burnham, he is good for a UK politician, but he wouldn’t even make the cabinet here. I don’t think he would be a good Prime Minister.
@shiftaling
Well, this Ipsos poll suggests that he does.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/andy-burnham-and-wes-streetings-national-favourability-ratings-fall-ahead-makerfield-election
Favourability among 2024 Labour voters,
Andy Burnham: 48% Favourable, 15% Unfavourable (+33)
Keir Starmer: 42% Favourable, 34% Unfavourable (+8)
And UK Labour goes by a full party membership vote, not just a parliamentary membership vote, so Burnham winning the leadership if he challenges would be likely.
Also some other interesting figures from that poll.
Gordon Brown (UK PM from 2007-2010): 47-19 (+28)
Tony Blair (UK PM from 1997-2007): 30-43 (-13)
Angela Rayner (Deputy PM from 2024-25): 39-27 (+12)
Ed Miliband (Opposition Leader from 2010-2015): 38-25 (+13)
Rachel Reeves (Chancellor): 31-39 (-8)
If Andy Burnham was so popular what was he doing stuck in a (relatively) unimportant role as Mayor of the North?
@Ghost of Whitlam
Probably because he knew that Labour would lose badly under Jeremy Corbyn at some point and bailed at the 2017 election.
Turns out that he did. His former seat of Leigh was picked up by the Conservatives under Boris in 2019.
Now it seems he’s on a comeback tour.
Okay then why wasn’t he the leader instead of Corbyn? I’m guessing he wouldn’t have been able to get pinged with the “pro-terrorist” message that Corbyn did.
Seems like they saved the best for “break glass in case of emergency”.
@Ghost of Whitlam
Because UK politics in 2015 was way different to what it is in 2026.
In late 2015 when Labour had just shockingly lost an election despite the polls saying they’d be in with a chance, it was pretty much pure bedlam. David Cameron had just won the Conservatives a Majority government by successfully blaming their Coalition partner the Lib Dems for all the country’s woes through austerity, and the choices were Andy Burnham (lost because he was seen to be too close to Miliband’s losing politics and also Tony Blair), Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall (also-rans) and Jeremy Corbyn (perhaps the pure leftist needed for the party, a Michael Foot 2.0).
Corbyn won the Labour membership vote on the first round with 59.5%. Admittedly he did pretty well in the election in 2017, but this was immediately after the Brexit vote and while negotiations were still in operation and his opponent was also Theresa May, but he then proceeded to screw everything up for Labour in the 2019 election against Boris.
That all makes sense.
Hopefully Burnham wins and then turns it around. Wonder how long Starmer has if it’s a win. I assume there’s a writ that has to be returned first.
Doing well in the 2017 election was the worst possible thing for British Labour. It gave them false confidence in Corbyn when it was really a vote against May calling an early election and the confusion around the Brexit vote.
@Ghost of Whitlam
Since in Britain they pretty much declare the winner of by-elections on the next day (unless it’s really, really close), if Burnham wins tomorrow the challenge would be launched immediately by his supporters in parliament.
If in the likely scenario that he wins Labour leadership, all the necessary paperwork will have been done, since a full party leadership vote would take about 1-2 months and he’d have been sworn in as the MP for Makerfield by then and be in the position to ask King Charles to form a government with himself as Prime Minister.
What’s so good about Burnham? Labour’s talent within their huge majority is so thin they can’t find anyone to replace Starmer?
That he’s not Starmer is pretty much the dealmaker here. Starmer’s at 17% approval and 64% disapproval. Nearly 2/3rds of the country hate him. When a governing party is at that point 2 years after an election in which they win with an overwhelming majority, there’s clearly something wrong with their leader.
And before you bring up Albo, his ratings haven’t been that bad, and he’s come back after difficulties like the Voice Referendum.
Keir meanwhile seems to be unable to come back from anything, he just gets worse and worse.
John Crace puts it into better words than I can.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/17/keir-starmer-denial-labour-leadership-contest-andy-burnham
I recently saw an article about a sea turtle covered in crustaceans etc. I reflected on the current state of the labour party. Starmer The Limpet will take some moving. I think Andy will have to wait.
@Kirsdark
Being declared the winner of a by-election in the wee hours of Friday morning isn’t the same as being an actual MP.
The earliest that could happen is next Monday afternoon which is the first opportunity for him to take the oath and sign the Test Roll.
Anyone putting in letters / signing nomination papers before then is acting prematurely.
I don’t want to see Nigel Farage PM for any number of myriad of reasons but can you imagine the outcry of hubris and jobs for elites if the right parties did a manoeuvre like this.
@ChrisC
That’s not what I said. If Andy Burnham wins tomorrow then the process to challenge the leader would likely be put in motion as soon as possible, since the result of that would take 1-2 months to process with the Labour party’s rules.
Honestly I reckon Starmer’s best move if that happens would be to voluntarily resign and agree to hand things over to Burnham once his paperwork’s in order and he’s been officially sworn back in as an MP.
Of course Starmer would still have the option of trying to anchor himself in place for as long as possible and make it painful for everyone. Or who knows? Maybe that might make Labour more popular if there’s an actual political fight to oust a leader of which 2/3rds of the country hates?
Better Burnham than a Lettuce.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/makerfield-by-election-live-polls-burnham-reform-starmer-b2997865.html
Andy Burnham has been in the wings for a while. He was a cabinet minister under late Blair/ Brown, and was widely seen as one to watch. He ran for leader in both 2010 and 2015, and while I personally would have voted for him both times (especially in 2015), in truth, he probably wasn’t really ready for the top job at that stage. Once Corbyn won against the odds in 2015, he probably figured (correctly, as it turned out) that Labour was set for a period in the wilderness, so he left Westminster, and ran for Mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017 (Mayors of big cities in the UK are similar in stature to some of our smaller state premiers).
He’s widely seen to have done a good job, turning around a hitherto declining city, and was rewarded with comfortable re-elections in 2021 & 2025. Burnham is very highly regarded in Manchester as highly competent, and very likeable, with a down-to-Earth relateable everyman kind of vibe. Whether he’d be a good PM is obviously something of an open question, but he’d bring a certain charisma to the job, which would put him ahead of the rather dour Starmer, and he’d also likely be better at the politics of the job. Starmer is a decent and competent leader, but he’s boring as batshit, and, it appears, not especially good at politics.
If Burnham wins in Makerfield, the momentum for him to become leader will soon be unstoppable, and I’d guess that Starmer will announce a timetable for an orderly departure and Burnham will be PM within weeks. There may yet be a ballot, as Wes Streeting has been teasing a run for the last few weeks, but it’s probably more likely that he’ll step aside to allow Burnham to take the prize, perhaps with the consolation prize of a senior ministry.
This is therefore a highly consequential by-election, one of the most so in UK history. Polling suggests that Burnham will indeed win, but as an area it’s fertile ground for Reform (long-standing very white northern Labour seat that voted heavily to Leave), and Burnham, with his high local popularity, is quite possibly the only Labour candidate who could win this by-election .
I guess all will be revealed on Friday morning!
@kersdarke
This is what you wrote –
“if Burnham wins tomorrow the challenge would be launched immediately by his supporters in parliament.”
And that’s what I responded to.
‘immediately’ isn’t the same as ‘soon as possible’.
And there isn’t a simple way for Starmer to resign and to be immediately replaced by Burnham.
That’s not how the party constitution works.
Plus Burnham isn’t going to be the only candidate for the leadership despite the attempts of the press to make it appear that he’s the only one.
Chris –
There is a clear path to a rapid transfer of power. Burnham wins Makerfoeld, Starmer announces a timetable to depart, and Burnham is the only candidate to replace him. All quite plausible, and it could happen within a few weeks. There are several things that could blow out that timetable, of course (Starmer digging in, Streeting and others declaring a run), but there’s definitely a path for it to be faster.
Of course, this is all premised on Burnham wining today.
“What polls have said about likely voting in Makerfield”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2026/jun/18/makerfield-byelection-keir-starmer-andy-burnham-robert-kenyon-labour-leadership-reform-aberdeen-arbroath-uk-politics-latest-news-updates?page=with%3Ablock-6a33b9d88f083b97ede8ac0c#block-6a33b9d88f083b97ede8ac0c
The makings of a ‘Firewall’ in the UK to keep out the far right, to replicate that in France and Germany?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/makerfield-by-election-live-result-burnham-reform-starmer-b2998674.html
How long does the count normally take? I know at general elections there are couple of places that race to see who can do it the quickest.
Won’t be quick with 14 candidates on the Makerfield ballot paper and it will take as long as it takes.
They can’t start sorting into candidate piles and counting those piles until verification has been completed and that depends on how soon all the ballot boxes reach the count centre and have been verified.
I’ve seen an estimate of 3am (UK Time) but I’ve got some string to measure.
The Guardian reporting that turn-out is “very high”, between 60-65%, well above the general election turn-out of 52%. Thank God for compulsory voting! We’d be horrified if turn-out was less than 70%.
A livestream whilst awaiting….
https://www.youtube.com/live/E8HzBGApMXI?si=GluC1ptTdUuUe5UD
Comparing Burnham with Mamdani could be stretch
@Kirsdarke I expect Albo to have a similar kind of breakdown (for all I know there’s published numbers somewhere already to confirm it) as usually the way it works is righties all fall in behind their leader (Hanson in this case) until they don’t, but Labor leaders are invariably dragged from both left and right no matter how well they’re going.
Starmer earned his left dragging more than most though.
Turnout is 58.75%which is up on the 2024 general election.
Announcement of turnout means verification has been completed and the actual counting can take place.
But 31% in Abroath
@BS Fairman
Gods, if you said that in the main thread we wouldn’t be able to move for the Corbyn fans piling in to say how unfairly he was treated and he was totally hugely popular with the public guys and didn’t horribly botch the Labour response to Brexit.
Yes, turn-out lower than rumoured, if still higher than in 2024. Still piss-poor though.
Appallingly low turn-out in the two Scottish by-elections, and what looks like a Tory pick up off the SNP in Aberdeen South.
Arky – Hence I said it here. 🙂
Corbyn was a case of a major party losing it’s mind and the results for the UK have been extremely bad ever since. The Brexit vote was lost by a tiny margin and if there had been a pro-EU leader of the opposition it could have been stopped. Instead there has been 4 terrible conservative PMs and one duller than a door knob Labour PM. The country has lost standing and is going broke.
Reform backgrounding the media to suggest they’ve lost, but not by a huge amount, about 2,500 votes. With Restore looking like getting about 7% of the vote, it could yet be that Burnham’s victory is down to Lefty voters coalescing behind Labour, while Righty voters split.
Corbyn was a case of a major party losing it’s mind and the results for the UK have been extremely bad ever since.
——————————————————-
“Obama was a case of a major party losing it’s willingness to accomplish big things and the results for the US have been extremely bad ever since.”
I don’t agree with either of those statements but I don’t completely disagree with them either.
Reform backgrounding the media to suggest they’ve lost, but not by a huge amount, about 2,500 votes. With Restore looking like getting about 7% of the vote, it could yet be that Burnham’s victory is down to Lefty voters coalescing behind Labour, while Righty voters split.
———————————————————-
Time for some seat sharing? Greens, Labour, LibDem.
I will get my coat and wait in the car.
You would think that Burnham should win this by a fairly decent margin, considering the Greens are pretty much running dead to clear the way for him, while the crazy far-right whackos from Restore are playing spoilers for the other crazy far-right whackos from Reform.
The problem for Labour if they get rid of Starmer is they will still be the Labour Party – their problems go far beyond just having a hopeless leader. Same can be said of the ALP.
Makerfield apparently borders on Wigan – famous for its Rugby League team and Orwell’s depression era “Road to Wigan Pier”
In short it is bogan central for the UK -in Australian terms traditionally Labor but the sort of seat in which Pauline would have some appeal
Aberdeen South
Tory Gain from SNP
Majority – 6,050 on a turnout of 38%
50% share for them.
First Tory Scottish bye election gain in over 50 years
Funny that the “Starmerites” are complaining about Corbyn again now after the spectacular success of Starmerism…
The complete disillusionment of the Labour rank-and-file that has seen scores of them abandoning the party under Starmer seems to be totally lost on them.
Arbroath & Broughty Ferry
SNP hold
Majority – 5,278
SNP vote share up from ~ 35% to 41%
Turnout 31%
Arbroath & Broughty Ferry
SNP hold
Majority – 5,278
SNP vote share up from ~ 35% to 41%
Turnout 31%
The Guardian
Reform UK ‘very happy’ to come a strong second in Makerfield, says Sarah Pochin
Sarah Pochin, the Reform UK MP, told GB News a bit earlier that her party would be “very happy” to come a strong second in Makerfield.
That is not technically a concession. But it is not what you say if you think you have a chance of winning.
It does seem to strange that MPs would resign to become MSPs, but I guess the SNP is in government in Scotland and a minor player in Westminster. But you generally don’t see politicians go from national parliaments to regional ones.
It’s on already:
“Burnham ally Louise Haigh says Starmer should agreed to ‘orderly and managed transition’ of power”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2026/jun/18/makerfield-byelection-keir-starmer-andy-burnham-robert-kenyon-labour-leadership-reform-aberdeen-arbroath-uk-politics-latest-news-updates#maincontent
This caravan is moving on very quickly. Hope you brought along a hankie to wave it goodbye, Sir Keir!
Yes, I’d guess that the whole leadership thing while cascade pretty quickly now. I wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see Burnham as PM by the end of July.
Difficult, we could also blame Blair. Yeah, lets do that too.
The system is crook. Say what you like about Blair (I do), but he was a substantial leader. The last leader of the UK of any note. Last elected over 20 years ago. Why is that? What sort of people are being attracted to politics now? What sort of people are being promoted by political parties? What sort of people are voters choosing to vote for? Why the F would anyone look at Farage or Johnson and say ‘yeah, I’d like him to represent, lead and govern the people of the UK’? When and why did voting become a way of sticking up your middle finger at something you dont like rather than a duty to elect a leader to responsibly govern, to protect, to progress the whole State?
Within all that, yes, absolutely, ask why leaders and political parties feel unable or unwilling to make good, wholesome, and needed change. The only change that seems to be undertaken is change that denigrates or damages others regardless of the greater good?
The system is crook. The wrong people are taking power and leadership roles. The civil service is a joke. The checks and balances serve only to stymie good change while turning a blind eye to the b@stards and the loonies.
If there is going to be significant political change, a revolution of politics, you dont want the far right to be the ones running it.
So good luck to Burnham. Today, and beyond. He will need it.