Two new federal polls, plus the detritus of a third:
• The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor steady on 26%, One Nation down one to 28%, the Coalition up one to 21% and the Greens steady on 13%. Labor holds 52-48 respondent-allocated two-party preferred leads over both the Coalition and One Nation, which are respectively unchanged and in from 53-47. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 35% and steady on 60% disapproval, while Angus Taylor is down one to 37% and up four to 47%. Albanese holds a 48-41 lead over Pauline Hanson, out from 47-41. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to yesterday from a sample of 1492.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up two to 28%, One Nation steady on 29.5%, the Coalition down half a point to 17% and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 14%. Labor leads the Coalition 54.5-45.5 on both measures of two-party preferred, where the previous poll had them leading 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54-46 using previous election flows. Labor leads One Nation 53-47 on a respondent-allocated two-party measure, in from 53.5-46.5.
• Nine Newspapers provides further results from the Resolve Strategic poll suggesting strong support for the various policies announced by Angus Taylor, including 42% in favour of linking immigration to completed house builds, with 18% opposed, and 42% in favour of scrapping the capital gains tax and negative gearing changes, with 17% opposed. Jim Chalmers has a 34% approval rating, steady on a month ago, with 39% disapproval, down one.
Also some non-poll related electorally relevant news:
• Sarah Ison of The Australian reported on June 8 that questions surrounded the eligibility of Western Australian One Nation Senator Tyron Whitten to sit in parliament. At issue is whether his shares in a family civil construction company that has a contract with a firm working on the Snowy Hydro 2.0 project falls foul of Section 44(v), which disqualifies those who hold “direct or indirect pecuniary interest in any agreement with the Public Service of the Commonwealth”. Matters for judgement identified by constitutional law expert Anne Twomey include whether the family firm qualifies for the exemption for “an incorporated company consisting of more than twenty‑five persons”; whether Snowy Hydro 2.0, which has a legal existence separate from the Commonwealth, counts as “the Public Service of the Commonwealth”; and, for the Senate’s judgement, whether Whitten had failed to properly disclose the matter.
• Two vacancies loom in Tasmanian Senate seats held by the Liberal Party, most imminently in the case of Shadow Home Affairs Minister Jonathan Duniam, who announced on Sunday he will leave politics once work on the Coalition’s immigration policy had been finalised. Wendy Askew also announced last week that she will not stand at the next election, and will thus retire when her term ends in mid-2028. The ABC reported Brad Stansfield, newspaper publisher, managing director of polling firm EMRS and former chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman, will seek preselection, presumably suggesting he will be in the running to fill Duniam’s casual vacancy. Stansfield boasted support from Jeremy Rockliff, Peter Gutwein and Peta Credlin as well as Hodgman. Sue Bailey of The Mercury further reported former state Education Minister Sarah Courtney, who served in parliament from 2014 to 2022, was “also believed to be considering”.
• Yet another disturbance to the Senate’s Tasmanian contingent unfolded on May 14 when Tammy Tyrell joined Labor, increasing its representation in the chamber to 30 seats out of 76. Tyrell was elected for the Jacqui Lambie Network in 2022, broke with the party in March 2024, and established her own Tammy Tyrell for Tasmania party in September 2024. Jack Quail of The Australian reports Tyrrell will sit with Labor’s Right faction, meaning she will have to overcome colleague Helen Polley to score a winnable spot on the Senate ticket at the 2028 election.
• I made a lengthy appearance with Tim Lester on the Seven Network’s The Issue podcast to discuss you-know-what, which I’m told was quite good.
Nigel Farage can frankly go and get fucked, he’s just a Trumpist puppet and nothing more.
Contest things in 2029 when the next election is due, then we’ll see how things go.
frednk you found out my secret identity seriously I use speech to text it’s easier for my for me cuz I’m a s*** typer also crispy wedges I wouldn’t star panicking 2 years out of an election remember when people thought that it was gonna be minority government think I was the only one in a couple others were like no I think it’s more like Labor has more of a chance to get majority
Holdenhillbilly, Monday, June 22, 2026 at 6:58 pm:
That, by itself, is enough to persuade me (against my earlier thoughts) that an early election would be a bad idea for Andy Burnham. At least, until after he has spent some time getting everyone accustomed to him in Number 10 (himself not least!).
Furthermore, I’m sure Farage means an election right now, before Andy get to Number 10. All I can say is, that is a demand with a somewhat short shelf life.
Holden – I would expect nothing less from Farage – he is as bad as Trump in always trying to keep his name in lights. It doesn’t have to happen, so it won’t.
Wes Streeting is the other person often mentioned as a potential candidate. However, he was the only minister less popular than Starmer. I am not sure there is 81 MPs willing to nominate him. As I mentioned in the UK byelection thread; Streeting is the unusual combination of deeply Christian and gay – neither of which by themself would exclude him for the role but combined it might be too much for the Labour membership. But he is also a major centrist and I can hear half of the people here screaming about that.
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, June 22, 2026 at 6:46 pm
A humiliation for all those who boosted Sir Keir.
Not even two years… then managed out
_______________________
Albanese was a booster.
Trump had him sussed though. “This is not Winston Churchill we are dealing with”
Re smoking, I think that Australia has done a great job in getting smoking rates down from 70-80% in the 1960s to near 10% over recent decades. We’ve got it mostly right, but one important aspect badly wrong:
Right:
We’ve long since banned all forms of tobacco advertising and sponsorship. We’ve banned smoking from pretty much all indoor public spaces and work spaces, including bars and restaurants. Smoking has been pretty much restricted to consenting adults in private. I agree with all of that. Big Tobacco got teenagers who wanted to look cool addicted, who went on to became life-long customers, often with a shortened life.
Wrong
The other thing we’ve done is tax tobacco at punitive levels. I always thought that was a good idea, although with proceeds directed into health rather than consolidated revenue. Be that as it may, it must make young people think very hard before taking up smoking. However, indications are that we’ve gone too far, with a thriving black market having sprung up. It’s a wicked problem, which can’t be solved by cutting the tax back, unless it’s to very low levels. It needs strict enforcement while avoiding corruption and violence. Good luck.
Should we ban tobacco?
No. As with other recreational drugs, as with prohibition in the USA, in fact as with other naughty things that at least a significant minority of the population does and wants to continue, such a ban wouldn’t work and would create more problems than it solves.
Churchill was overrated. The only the first 18 months of his Prime Ministership were critical. The rest of the time he probably did more harm than good.
Telegraph: The US and Iran have established a military hotline to avoid miscommunications, as peace talks continue in Switzerland. Both sides agreed on a path to end the war permanently and are now into technical negotiations, after 18 hours of talks on Sunday.
Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said “major progress” had been made, despite the Iranian delegation walking out in protest against fresh threats from Donald Trump. The US president said on Sunday that he would “blow the s— out of them” and take over their country.
But in a joint statement early this morning, Pakistani and Qatari mediators said the two sides had agreed to a series of measures aimed at reducing tensions.
Like Tony Abbott…
“Albanese was a booster.”
Indeed.
——
“Anthony Albanese has defended UK prime minister Keir Starmer’s struggling leadership, insisting the Labour government has an “absolute resolve” to stand up for democracy and fight far-right forces in Britain.
Albanese called Starmer his “mate” and insisted both Australian Labor and UK Labour could meet key challenges driving some voters to consider populist parties.
:::
“But I what I see here in UK Labour, is the same determination that I know lives in every member of Australian Labor. An absolute resolve to stand together and defend democracy itself.””
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/28/albanese-rallies-behind-starmer-saying-labour-can-fight-back-the-rise-of-populist-right
nath says:
Monday, June 22, 2026 at 6:28 pm
Worst thing when you were young is finding out the girl you liked was a non smoker and you were going to have to be on your best behavior for a while.
Finding a girl who smoked bongs was like winning the lottery.
_________________________
Ha I know exactly the feeling – just avoid the ones who like the bucket bongs.
If you are missing seeing boobs on the internet just use Tor
Taylormade, Monday, June 22, 2026 at 7:09 pm:
Trump is no Churchill either – but he most definitely is a Mussolini:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greco-Italian_War
What do you idiots think Albanese should have said about Starmer? Denounced him as a monster?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-22/sir-keir-starmer-to-resign-as-uk-prime-minister/106667868
____________________________
Finally a good decision and 10 bonus HP for taking the honorable exit in true Cpt Oats style – “i’m going for a walk, I may be some time”
The UK will shortly have its seventh Prime Minister in 10 years after Keir Starmer’s resignation.
Israelis running up impressive polling numbers….
https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-92-of-israelis-believe-iran-emerged-as-winner-after-war-and-deal-with-us/
The really significant thing about Starmer’s resignation is that it means the Larry the Number Ten cat and Chief Mouser has seen off another PM, his sixth. Larry has been the one piece of stability and efficiency in the British government 😀
I too am appalled that the Prime Minister followed the basic rules of diplomacy when talking publicly about the head of government of one of our major allies.
Obviously, he should have been a proper statesman and stuck his nose into the UK’s domestic politics.
If there’s one person whose opinion we can trust on the quality of other world leaders, its Donald fucking Trump.
William Bowesays:
Monday, June 22, 2026 at 7:18 pm
What do you idiots think Albanese should have said about Starmer? Denounced him as a monster?
__________
I’m an idiot, and think Albanese should have said that Sir Keir Starmer is a fopping, fucking imbecile who couldn’t run a stick up a dog’s arse?
How appalling that Australia has a Prime Minister who adheres to diplomatic norms by refusing to trash talk his international counterparts!
Prime Minister Pauline Hanson would never behave in such an abysmal manner.
#MAGA
Asha – note that Rex and Taylormade are on a unity ticket in endorsing Trump’s dissing of Keir Starmer. Trump, the Orange Mussolini.
Asha:
Snap 😳
Taylormade
Trump had Starmer sussed though. “This is not Winston Churchill we are dealing with”
Trump said this in a joint press conference with Taoiseach Micheál Martin, whose face showed some surprise but soon recovered to say “ Churchill was a great wartime leader, although in Ireland, it was kind of a different perspective in terms of the War of Independence,”
A few days later in a joint press conference with Takaichi he said “ Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn’t you tell me about Pearl Harbor?”
The fronto-temporal disinhibition is rapidly worsening
Steve, re cigarettes:
Yeah, I agree with that.
After spending a few weeks in Turkey a couple years back, I developed a deep appreciation for our own laws in regards to where a person is allowed to smoke. The whole damn country is basically a giant hotbox.
Well…there’s a reason they feel that way. As Bill Maher put it at the weekend, the US (and you can infer Israel by extension) got everything they wanted except for everything they asked for.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWVtaeqe8e0
Why the fu#$ is there a focus on the leader of executive… we go & vote, we elect a LOCAL member they generally represent a political party with a published policy.
So in theory we vote & elect a government with a mandate to implement its policy… we do NOT vote for the PM.
All Starmer need to do was implement the policy they were elected on & when they found the Tories cooked the books they should have stuck the size 12s right up them.. but no .. they turned to water .
What they need now is a boots & all government
OC:
If only he had found out sooner, he could have stopped it from happening!
Yeah I think be very rude of Anthony to call another leader of a country a dog also apparently we’re getting Vegemite kids
Hanson is going to get rid of vehicle emissions standards.
Oates’ problems were allegedly not confined to frost-bite & hypothermia:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/oct/14/books.artsandhumanities
Free range eggs significantly increase the chances of the spread:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/22/h5n1-bird-flu-australia-wild-birds-wa-poultry-farms-locked-down
I have been disappointed in Starmer as UK PM. However I saw him as weak, not evil. He was not Trump. There was no cause for Albo to do anything other than wish him the best.
Starmer resigns as PM with a time table to elect new Labour leader.
Rishi Sunak is their best PM in the last decade. That says something according to my daughter.
Starmer might have spent most of his time as opposition leader purging the Labour Party of what remains of the working class, its union roots and the socialist left, mainly under the guise of ejecting those who argued that disavowing zionism is not inherently anti-semitic, but other than that, he was a human rights barrister.
Murdoch’s
New York Post editorial
Trump did not just change the post. He changed the sport, the venue and the rules to declare victory
Trump Iran deal is worse than Obama’s.
Oh god are we going to be treated to endless Game of Thrones references of ‘king of the north’ wrt to Burnham.
Honestly the msm is just ridiculous these days.
Starmer put up much less of a resistance than I thought he would. My thought process was that he’ll try to do his hardest to deny Burnham the premiership until September when the inevitable would be that he (Starmer) would lose the leadership contest.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
A few days later in a joint press conference with Takaichi he said “ Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn’t you tell me about Pearl Harbor?”
_______________
I actually found that funny AF.
And with that Wes Streeting has ruled himself out of leadership contest. Looks like Burnham is going to face no other contenders.
Iran has closed SOH after 1st round of talks because of Trump threats before the 1st round of talks started.
This is not so funny:
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/trump-most-controversial-trade-2026-134434581.html
Nadia’s ‘Paddington bear’ has resigned.
Banning tobacco would leave a $10B hole in the budget and cost a shit load enforcing it.
And it wouldn’t work.
How so?
Starmer is a right barrister and a bit of a counsel.
His economic competence and dignified approach to politics when compared to other PMs. He is a true conservative IMO.
Albanese
“But I what I see here in UK Labour, is the same determination that I know lives in every member of Australian Labor. An absolute resolve to stand together and defend democracy itself.”
_______________________
A bit of a misread. He would be hoping the resolve to stand together is a lot stronger for him in Australian Labor for when the time comes.
According to a screen shot I have seen The West Australian is telling its readers that the demise of his mate Starmer means the clock is ticking for Albanese.
It all started when his other mate Trudeau crashed and burned.
You could not make this shit up.
Except they do.
Boerwar says:
Monday, June 22, 2026 at 7:51 pm
Free range eggs significantly increase the chances of the spread:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/22/h5n1-bird-flu-australia-wild-birds-wa-poultry-farms-locked-down
There are a lot of problems with free range eggs. To keep the chooks healthy the use of antibiotics goes through the roof, this increases the risk of antibiotic resistance strains of bacteria, the risk of mass chooks deaths due to crowd panic also increase.
On the plus side, it does increase the tucker supply for the eagles, and I admire eagles.
I only buy cage eggs for my own, and the chooks health.