Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Two new federal polls showing only modest movement over the last fortnight, both with One Nation keeping their nose in front of Labor on the primary vote.

Two new federal polls, plus the detritus of a third:

• The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor steady on 26%, One Nation down one to 28%, the Coalition up one to 21% and the Greens steady on 13%. Labor holds 52-48 respondent-allocated two-party preferred leads over both the Coalition and One Nation, which are respectively unchanged and in from 53-47. Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 35% and steady on 60% disapproval, while Angus Taylor is down one to 37% and up four to 47%. Albanese holds a 48-41 lead over Pauline Hanson, out from 47-41. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to yesterday from a sample of 1492.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up two to 28%, One Nation steady on 29.5%, the Coalition down half a point to 17% and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 14%. Labor leads the Coalition 54.5-45.5 on both measures of two-party preferred, where the previous poll had them leading 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 54-46 using previous election flows. Labor leads One Nation 53-47 on a respondent-allocated two-party measure, in from 53.5-46.5.

• Nine Newspapers provides further results from the Resolve Strategic poll suggesting strong support for the various policies announced by Angus Taylor, including 42% in favour of linking immigration to completed house builds, with 18% opposed, and 42% in favour of scrapping the capital gains tax and negative gearing changes, with 17% opposed. Jim Chalmers has a 34% approval rating, steady on a month ago, with 39% disapproval, down one.

Also some non-poll related electorally relevant news:

Sarah Ison of The Australian reported on June 8 that questions surrounded the eligibility of Western Australian One Nation Senator Tyron Whitten to sit in parliament. At issue is whether his shares in a family civil construction company that has a contract with a firm working on the Snowy Hydro 2.0 project falls foul of Section 44(v), which disqualifies those who hold “direct or indirect pecuniary interest in any agreement with the Public Service of the Commonwealth”. Matters for judgement identified by constitutional law expert Anne Twomey include whether the family firm qualifies for the exemption for “an incorporated company consisting of more than twenty‑five persons”; whether Snowy Hydro 2.0, which has a legal existence separate from the Commonwealth, counts as “the Public Service of the Commonwealth”; and, for the Senate’s judgement, whether Whitten had failed to properly disclose the matter.

• Two vacancies loom in Tasmanian Senate seats held by the Liberal Party, most imminently in the case of Shadow Home Affairs Minister Jonathan Duniam, who announced on Sunday he will leave politics once work on the Coalition’s immigration policy had been finalised. Wendy Askew also announced last week that she will not stand at the next election, and will thus retire when her term ends in mid-2028. The ABC reported Brad Stansfield, newspaper publisher, managing director of polling firm EMRS and former chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman, will seek preselection, presumably suggesting he will be in the running to fill Duniam’s casual vacancy. Stansfield boasted support from Jeremy Rockliff, Peter Gutwein and Peta Credlin as well as Hodgman. Sue Bailey of The Mercury further reported former state Education Minister Sarah Courtney, who served in parliament from 2014 to 2022, was “also believed to be considering”.

• Yet another disturbance to the Senate’s Tasmanian contingent unfolded on May 14 when Tammy Tyrell joined Labor, increasing its representation in the chamber to 30 seats out of 76. Tyrell was elected for the Jacqui Lambie Network in 2022, broke with the party in March 2024, and established her own Tammy Tyrell for Tasmania party in September 2024. Jack Quail of The Australian reports Tyrrell will sit with Labor’s Right faction, meaning she will have to overcome colleague Helen Polley to score a winnable spot on the Senate ticket at the 2028 election.

• I made a lengthy appearance with Tim Lester on the Seven Network’s The Issue podcast to discuss you-know-what, which I’m told was quite good.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,242 thoughts on “Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. Jeez, you’re are up late, William. It seems the 2PP vote is becoming an asymptote at about 50-51%, despite the One Nation vote slowly rising and the ALP vote slowly falling. As the shift to One Nation increasingly shifts from Coalition voters to ALP voters, perhaps the preference flows slowly start to favour the ALP, as former ALP voters maintain the ALP as their number 2?

  2. One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts labelled the United States “the world’s greatest terrorist organisation” in a 2024 interview, in comments that will challenge Pauline Hanson to bring her controversial colleague to heel and raise questions about the party’s fitness to govern.
    Roberts described the US as “globalist parasites since 1913” in an interview with Israeli podcaster Efrat Fenigson in September 2024, when Joe Biden was still president, but his remarks have resurfaced just as One Nation leader Hanson prepares to front the National Press Club in Canberra for the first time on Wednesday.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/global-parasites-since-1913-one-nation-senator-calls-us-world-s-greatest-terrorist-organisation-20260616-p6079x.html

  3. Paul Kelly is on a bit of a roll. Here he says that Trump is no wartime leader.

    “A diminished Donald Trump, scrambling to evacuate his war against Iran, has secured a patched-up interim agreement that cannot disguise his ineptitude as a war leader and points to a likely failure on many of the initial goals when he launched military action against Iran.

    Trump is a weakened president, at home and in the world. The irony of the major triumph in his 60-day ceasefire agreement with Iran is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz – but that is merely a restoration of the status quo before the attack on Iran by Trump and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu.

    The interim agreement, not yet released but to be signed on Friday, is a fragile compromise, with political forces in both Washington and Tehran unhappy with the outcome. Trump’s political salesmanship – casting a messy retreat as a magnificent victory – will be tested to the limit as both sides claim to be winners.”
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary%2Firan-deal-proves-one-thing-trump-is-no-wartime-leader%2Fnews-story%2F8ccd7b1a0cf6d6661418311864093777

  4. World News & Politics Patrol:

    FBI says plot to attack White House UFC event with drones thwarted: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-17/ufc-white-house-drone-bomb/106806038

    Secret Service officials are angered by the FBI director’s early morning social media post that was shared before some suspects were arrested: https://www.ms.now/news/kash-patel-white-house-ufc-attack-secret-service

    Warning shots fired from Russian warship at vessel in English Channel: https://www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/news/national/26200208.warning-shots-fired-russian-warship-vessel-english-channel/

    Moscow’s largest oil refinery halts operations after Ukrainian drone attack: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/06/16/8039654/

    US intel assesses Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz at will from now on: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/16/politics/us-intel-assessment-iran-shut-strait-hormuz

    Iran deal includes $300 billion fund, more than half of which already committed: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/iran-deal-includes-300-billion-fund-more-than-half-which-already-committed-2026-06-16/

    Carry-on bags to be free, EU rules: https://yle.fi/a/74-20231806

    Belarus’ Lukashenko accuses Israel of carrying out ‘Holocaust’ in Gaza: https://www.ynetnews.com/article/b16xj00c11zx

    Trump Team Dumps Bleach in Reflecting Pool to Hide Renovation Failure: https://newrepublic.com/post/211924/donald-trump-bleach-reflecting-pool-renovation-failure

    Trump administration blames Obama after ‘blue’ Reflecting Pool turns green after $14M refurb: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-obama-reflecting-pool-washington-green-b2996395.html

    Taxpayers to pay for half of Trump’s $600 million ballroom: https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/trump-ballroom-cost-taxpayer-security-b2996679.html

    Mississippi Police Officer Shoots and Kills 1-Year-Old Child in Response to Senatobia Shoplifting Call: https://www.mississippifreepress.org/mississippi-police-officer-shoots-and-kills-1-year-old-child-in-response-to-senatobia-shoplifting-call/

  5. Re Senator Malcolm Roberts: his real problem is one of stupidity. He is waging a campaign against the TGA on his Facebook page and has even started maligning the US covid-era health czar Anthony Fauci. He is a cooker magnet of epic proportions. I recommend the comments on his Facebook page to anyone in need of entertainment.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jun/17/one-nation-health-policies-errors-pauline-hanson-ntwnfb

    I am not as alarmed as many over the rise of One Nation. They will end up with significant power out of the next election. We need to accept that fact and work with it. By and large, Hanson can listen to reason and is prepared to negotiate. But she needs to rid her party of cuddly nutters like Roberts. In particular, he needs to not be her health spokesman.

  6. Tim Wilson’s investment trust holds shares in a climate advisory firm named Gondwana Carbon, which trades carbon credits under a scheme the Coalition has vowed to scrap. r Wilson has rejected that he should have disclosed those shares, saying the trust which holds them has been declared. MPs are required to notify interests in any shares, including those held indirectly.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-17/tim-wilson-shares-gondwana-climate-trust/106803920

  7. Now here is something to look forward to, as US political tactics inevitably come to our shores…

    Campaign ads featuring AI-generated clips and images are now everywhere, with attack ads that place candidates in a wide variety of compromising and fictitious situations, Axios’ Andrew Solender writes.

    Why it matters: This largely unregulated practice is blurring the line between truth and fiction.
    The latest spot to push the envelope is an attack ad against Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico from a Trump-aligned group called Citizens for Sanity.

    The ad depicts Talarico in a dress singing an abridged version of “Favorite Things” about transgender children.

    Zoom in: Last month’s GOP primary in Kentucky’s 4th district, which Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) lost after being savaged by President Trump, saw widespread AI use by both sides.

    That included a “throuple” ad containing deepfakes of dining, checking into a hotel and holding hands with Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

    Pro-Massie spots used AI to depict an elephant with Trump-like hair and a MAGA cap, and Ed Gallrein, Massie’s challenger, abandoning Trump in a foxhole.

    In Georgia, gubernatorial candidate Brad Raffensperger used AI in multiple ads to depict his GOP primary opponents wildly shooting guns in the air and fighting each other with pugil sticks.

    A new ad from another Georgia gubernatorial candidate, Burt Jones, is entirely AI-generated and portrays his GOP primary runoff opponent, Rick Jackson, shoveling money into a furnace.
    Democrats are also using AI:

    In Texas, Crockett used AI to inflate the crowd size in one of her ads and posted an AI video to social media of herself, Trump and others as babies.

    In New York City, Andrew Cuomo used AI in the mayoral election in an ad that portrayed him performing various jobs, including subway conductor, stockbroker, stagehand, and window washer.

    https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-4ce74ac2-7b36-43aa-8aa5-1604f7d618fa.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top

  8. If true this is insane. Why would anyone willingly visit the US these days?

    The FBI said it thwarted a planned attack on the Ultimate Fighting Championship mixed martial arts event on the White House lawn on the weekend, taking five people into custody, according to court documents.

    The plot involved using explosive-laden drones to strike the north side of the White House with the aim of funnelling attendees toward an exit where snipers planned to open fire on fleeing politicians and others, the FBI alleged in court papers on Tuesday (US time).

    US President Donald Trump attended the event, which was staged without incident on his 80th birthday, along with several senior Republican lawmakers, donors and administration officials to commemorate the 250th anniversary of US independence.

    The five people charged appeared to subscribe to anti-government conspiracy theories and were motivated in part by anger at the handling of investigative files related to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, according to court documents.

    One person charged expressed interest in targeting lawmakers who had received campaign donations from pro-Israel groups, the documents said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/fbi-says-it-thwarted-plot-to-use-explosive-drones-snipers-to-attack-white-house-ufc-event-20260617-p607fz.html

  9. File under No Shit, Sherlock…

    A new report on the media landscape by the Reuters Institute revealed that for the first time, social-media and video platforms like YouTube were the most common sources of news for most people across the world.

    The survey, which polled over 96,000 people in 48 countries, found that 54% of respondents said they had read or watched news on those sorts of platforms over the previous week, compared to 52% who said they watched news on TV and 51% who said they read it on a news website or app. Newspapers and radio trailed distantly behind, with artificial-intelligence chatbots beginning to make their way up the list.

    Both TV and news sites saw drops of 12 percentage points over the past five years, while the cohort that named social media as their primary new source increased.
    …..
    The rise in people getting their news on social media has also coincided with an increase in the number who say they don’t like the news they see and now have “little or no interest in it,” to the point where they have stopped consuming it at all. In 2021, that figure came in at 16%; it now stands at 25%, the survey found.

    The percentage of those who said they remain “extremely interested” in news fell to 43% from 59% over the same time frame, the survey showed.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-people-now-get-their-news-from-social-media-but-many-say-they-dislike-it-and-are-tuning-out-b5dfb1b2?mod=home_ln

  10. Maybe the UK Navy could do something about the Russian ships hanging about in the English Channel although I’m not sure they have enough boats to do that

    It’s ok though, I’m sure they have the capacity needed to build AUKUS subs…

    What a debacle

    I had a little fall at work on Monday, tripped going up the stairs. Brushed it off rather than trying to deny it in case the security footage, heaven forbid, ever comes out

    Let’s go Queensland, level the series up

  11. Hard Being Green says:
    Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 7:07 am

    Maybe the UK Navy could do something about the Russian ships hanging about in the English Channel although I’m not sure they have enough boats to do that …

    The Greens plan is to have no Australian warships at all. According to the official Greens policy site they are ‘unstrategic’.

    Whatever that means.

  12. Thanks, Hh
    The MOU kicks many of the major cans down the road. The two useful things are that there is a stop to the shooting and that hundreds of ships and thousands of crew trapped in the Gulf should be able to get out before the end of the 60 day negotiation period.

  13. Nearly half of Americans say they don’t consider themselves a part of either major political party, the highest level of partisan independence measured by CNN polling in more than a decade.

    Independents have grown to 47% of the population, rising roughly 10 points since just after President Donald Trump’s first term as president, according to CNN polling. Over the last 20 years, CNN polling found independent identification peaked in 2015 at just a shade higher than it is today: 48% of Americans on average across all CNN polling that year were independents.

    The poll suggests a shift away from Republicans since 2024 among registered voters, another ominous sign for the GOP ahead of the upcoming midterm elections as Trump’s approval ratings have sagged.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/16/politics/cnn-poll-political-parties-independent-democrats-republicans?Date=20260616&Profile=CNN&utm_content=1781604048&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

  14. Holdenhillbilly, Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 6:47 am:

    World News & Politics Patrol:

    Warning shots fired from Russian warship at vessel in English Channel: https://www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/news/national/26200208.warning-shots-fired-russian-warship-vessel-english-channel/

    HH – thank you yet again for the international roundup, particularly this article. The headline says the Russians fired a warning shot at a vessel, but more specifically it was a yacht:

    In Tuesday’s incident a UK-registered yacht alleged that the Russian warship fired warning shots nearby at a distance of approximately 500 yards (457 metres).

    The shots were fired around 20 nautical miles south of the Isle of Wight, outside UK territorial waters and caused no injuries or damage.

    I guess we shouldn’t expect the Russian Navy to go after tougher fish than this, given how many of their vessels have been sunk or damaged in the Black and Baltic Seas by the Ukrainians!

  15. ‘Justice prevailed’: Is the Netherlands shifting its stance on Israel?
    A court case, a Eurovision boycott and Gaza polling prompt Dutch debate over Palestine and Israel ties.

    https://www-aljazeera-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/6/16/justice-prevailed-is-the-netherlands-shifting-its-stance-on-israel?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17816456901627&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fnews%2F2026%2F6%2F16%2Fjustice-prevailed-is-the-netherlands-shifting-its-stance-on-israel

    From courtrooms to cultural boycotts, a series of developments in the Netherlands all point to a Dutch society more sympathetic with the Palestinian cause, even if its government remains broadly supportive of Israel, analysts say.

    The recent acquittal of Amin Abu Rashid, a refugee-turned-humanitarian worker, on accusations of funding Hamas has been a rare win for the pro-Palestine movement in the country. It is also one that pro-Palestinian movements hope will make it more difficult to target activism in the Netherlands against Israel’s actions.

  16. Labor and One Nation are effectively dead even on primaries on BludgerTrack: 28.1 to 27.9. This looked inevitable given the recent run of polls. Two things, though, favour Labor at an election:
    1. Geographical clumping of the ON vote in the relatively fewer seat which make up RARA;
    2. Coalition preferences leaking to Labor more than Greens preference leak to ON.

    Remember:
    Pauline Hanson opposes your pay rise.
    Pauline Hanson opposes your tax cut.

  17. I think the only good thing about the recent election results is that it shows that right wing populism is a global phenomenon and it’s not just exclusive to America (I mean it’s already been a thing in Europe for a decade and it actually started in Russia with Putin, but most people pick on America because of Trump (and rightfully so)).

  18. People running around claiming the sky is falling, One Nation for a win have competently misinterpreted the situation.

    The Liberal and National vote has collapsed. The question is what do you do when you have concluded the Liberals are a rabble.

    You have spent your life against Labor, if you have got to 2026 this is very ingrained. The Liberals have been a rabble for a long time.

    I’ve been in this position, “children overboard” was the end of me ever voting for Liberals.

    In my case there was no ON, so I had to vote Greens first, and give me second preference to Labor. It’s pretty obvious this is what a large portion of the ex Liberal voters are doing.

    The respondent allocated preferences indicates this is happening.

    My prediction, Labor will increase their majority at the next election, even though some of their current policies piss me off. Not having the balls to face the AUKUS disaster, not declaring Israel a terrorist state for example.

  19. Luigi M @ 6:50am

    Fair bit of the Good tsar, bad boyars in that post. Not sure what makes you think there’s a disconnect between Roberts and Hanson.

  20. Frednk

    I concur with your disappointment with Labor and Aukus and also their kowtowing to Israel.
    Unfortunately it doesn’t matter who is in power here in Australia, these two issues will play out the same way.

  21. Thomas Brian Mutter, Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 8:11 am:
    ——————-

    TBM – you think it’s a good thing that “right wing populism is a global phenomenon and it’s not just exclusive to America”? I assume you mean this as exculpatory for the US, rather than celebratory of right wing populism?

    Also, you are right to point the finger at the ‘Godfather’ of Western right wing authoritarianism: Vladimir Putin, that entrenched rigger of Russia’s elections and meddler in everyone else’s.

  22. I actually admire Trump for facing up to his loss. It took the USA 20 years to face the Afghanistan loss, and 19 years for them to face the Vietnam loss.

    Trump facing up to his failure has resulted in a lot less damage than those two losses.

    Trump promised no long term wars and he has delivered.

  23. I’m not saying it’s good. I’ve been a centre-left supporter my whole life, it just needs to be addressed that it’s global, and not go in a hate rally against countries just because they’re not Australia. That’s incredibly divisive, and not just insulting, but arrogant to the rest of the world.


  24. Victoria says:
    Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 8:26 am

    Frednk

    I concur with your disappointment with Labor and Aukus and also their kowtowing to Israel.
    Unfortunately it doesn’t matter who is in power here in Australia, these two issues will play out the same way.

    On the other side of the ledger, their energy transition efforts have been very very successful. There would be no way I would throw out the baby just to get rid of the bath water.

    It needs to be remembered, Labor managed the energy transition with constant attacks from the Greens and the Liberals.

  25. Confessions

    “If true this is insane. Why would anyone willingly visit the US these days?

    The FBI said it thwarted a planned attack on the Ultimate Fighting Championship mixed martial arts event on the White House lawn on the weekend, taking five people into custody, according to court documents.

    The plot involved using explosive-laden drones to strike the north side of the White House with the aim of funnelling attendees toward an exit where snipers planned to open fire on fleeing politicians and others, the FBI alleged in court papers on Tuesday (US time).

    US President Donald Trump attended the event, which was staged without incident on his 80th birthday, along with several senior Republican lawmakers, donors and administration officials to commemorate the 250th anniversary of US independence.

    The five people charged appeared to subscribe to anti-government conspiracy theories and were motivated in part by anger at the handling of investigative files related to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, according to court documents.

    One person charged expressed interest in targeting lawmakers who had received campaign donations from pro-Israel groups, the documents said.”

    ‘If true’ is the key part here. People have a convenient way of trying to assassinate Trump when he is under political pressure. This one is great (if you are certain elements of the establishment), you can undermine those who are legitimately aggreived by both issues as they relate to the Files and Isreal by lumping them in the extremist camp.

    P.s. I don’t know how to reply to people here other than copy and paste their comment and refer to them by name. Any tips?

  26. The changes to negative gearing will allow for new housing to be negatively geared, as it will increase housing supply.

    But in a nutshell, the word on the street should be, why should Australians have to subsidise those who are building asset wealth.

    We can’t claim expenses on the home we live in, so why should those who are building wealth through assets have that benefit.

    Taxpayer monies saved with this policy can be used to invest in social housing where rents can be controlled.

  27. Frednk jumps the right way for change i.e. left rather than right. I hope many follow suit

    I won’t get to watch the NPC today but I hope the media does it’s job effectively and tests Pauline on her policies and positions

    Off to work, enjoy your days folks

  28. A new report on the media landscape by the Reuters Institute revealed that for the first time, social-media and video platforms like YouTube were the most common sources of news for most people across the world.

    Conventional Big Media:
    Over-produced, over-corporatized, linear, obsessed with access and form over function, arrogant attitude of presenters, suits, ties, makeup, big hair. Hard to endure watching, and your comments disappear in a morass of corporate red tape that ends up rejecting everything you say.

    YouTube Media:
    T-shirts, un-coiffed hair, no use for makeup, home studios, cheap production values, unrehearsed, edgy, opinionated, irreverent. Easy to watch, and you can comment with a hope of getting a response.

    The latter is easier to watch than the former. You can switch it off, come back later. That’s the perception anyway.

    What worries me is the infiltration of recently sacked Big Media types into the YouTube ranks. They bring back the suits, the “John Williams” intro music, robot cameras, and the “guru” attitude. Even more worrying is that some in the Grunge Media seem to want to emulate them.

    But most worrying of all is the Google (aka YouTube’s owners and proprietors) can switch it off at any time, on any pretext, or no pretext at all, without appeal. This is starting to happen.

  29. On twitter

    ———

    It’s only Tuesday and Trump has f@@ked up a pool for $14 Million, lost a war agreeing to pay Iran $300 Billion, and ballooned his already expensive ballroom budget by another $200 Million.

    Where are the Republicans screaming about “waste, fraud and abuse”?

  30. An interesting perspective on twitter

    —-+++

    Big picture: the capitalist structure of the U.S. economy is based on growth—which makes sense when you’re colonizing & there are plenty of resources.

    There’s not a lot of room for growth left.
    SpaceX & AI attract massive capital because they falsely claim to solve this dilemma.

    SpaceX extends the old colonial vision into space—that’s why there is actual science fiction about “asteroid mining” in the S1. That’s why Musk put a TAM of essentially infinity dollars. He’s appealing to the fears of capitalists who know their system is becoming obsolete and want a “new frontier” for growth.

    The strategy of the AI industry is the opposite—rather than try to grow off the planet, it claims it’s going to remove labor from the economic equation to grow profits. That’s why the chatbot delusion has been so powerful in the financial industry. It heads right to the fear center of billionaires.

    It’s all just the opium of capitalism.

  31. TBM I think were a ways off having cage fights in the opera house with the contestants doing “PENNY WONG IS A MAN” mic drops, so I’ll just carry on with the ‘hate rally’, hope thats ok

  32. Hard Being Green says:
    Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 7:07 am

    Maybe the UK Navy could do something about the Russian ships hanging about in the English Channel although I’m not sure they have enough boats to do that …

    The Greens plan is to have no Australian warships at all. According to the official Greens policy site they are ‘unstrategic’.

    Whatever that means.

    If the UK wanted to deal with a Russian warship in the English channel, the response would be some combination of naval drones, aerial drones and missiles fired from on or above British soil.

    Sending a very expensive ship to deal with a very expensive ship is not a sensible approach.

    But, more realistically, this was just a face saving excercise from Russia and the UK rightfully ignored it. Russia had to respond to the UK seizing a shadow fleet tanker, and they chose a response that didn’t actually harm the UK or its interests.

    It’s like when people give the USA advanced notice that they’re going to target a shed at a US base in the middle east, the USA just moves stuff out of the shed and lets it get blown up. It’s an off-ramp

  33. Jacob writes:

    ‘If true’ is the key part here. People have a convenient way of trying to assassinate Trump when he is under political pressure. This one is great (if you are certain elements of the establishment), you can undermine those who are legitimately aggrieved by both issues as they relate to the Files and Isreal by lumping them in the extremist camp.

    There was talk about the “threat” of a massed drone attack on the White House UFC Circus in the few days before the event. The assumption was that Iran was involved. Now that the Iranians are Our Friends, and we don’t want to stuff up the “deal”, someone else has to be fingered for it.

    Something smells about this one.

    P.s. I don’t know how to reply to people here other than copy and paste their comment and refer to them by name. Any tips?

    Top-and-tail the comment you quote in square brackets. That helps visually distinguish it from your own words.

  34. Victoriasays:
    Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 8:34 am
    The changes to negative gearing will allow for new housing to be negatively geared, as it will increase housing supply.

    But in a nutshell, the word on the street should be, why should Australians have to subsidise those who are building asset wealth.

    We can’t claim expenses on the home we live in, so why should those who are building wealth through assets have that benefit.

    Taxpayer monies saved with this policy can be used to invest in social housing where rents can be controlled.

    ____________________

    Negative gearing and capital gains tax discount, now on new properties only, reduces tax paid on those activities. But in the absence of those two things, the activity itself (new investor construction) is unlikely to occur at all. You go from “reduced tax” to “no tax”.

    This also means the government needs to fill the shortage gap by even more, given that investor covered supply would dry up.

    So to put some rough numbers on it, we are currently 70,000 dwellings short of housing targets, and add another 30,000 knocking off investors (number of investor construction loans per year). So 100,000, multiply by $500,000 (average apartment construction cost) means the government is looking at $50 billion per year to cover the gap.

  35. To refer to a comment, why not just cite the time it was posted? This mode reduces significantly the amount of text on the thread.

  36. With Trump Present, PM Modi’s “Indians Also Lost Their Lives” Remark At G7 SummitPrime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday addressed the deaths of Indian seafarers in a US military strike during an address to G7 leaders, which included US President Donald Trump.

    https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/indians-also-lost-their-lives-pm-modi-flags-sailors-safety-in-front-of-trump-at-g7-summit-11646098?pfrom=home-ndtv_topscroll

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday addressed the deaths of Indian seafarers in a US military strike during an address to G7 leaders, which included US President Donald Trump. The Prime Minister stressed on the human cost of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz while calling for the protection of maritime trade routes.

    “We welcome the progress made in peace efforts in West Asia. This conflict has caused loss of life and property in our friendly countries in the region. Disruptions to maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz have adversely affected the global economy,” the PM said.

    “Several Indian civilians have also lost their lives. The safety of seafarers, who connect nations through global maritime trade, is our responsibility. We must ensure that sea routes remain secure and that seafarers can carry out their work without fear,” he added, speaking during the session on “Forging New Partnerships and Rebuilding International Solidarity” in France’s Evian.

  37. Palantir go crawling on knees crying and gnashing their Cartier designer teeth while holding up thick brown envelopes to Donnie to do something about nasty, horrible France?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/16/france-ai-data-tools-palantir-chapsvision

    Life imitates black comedy:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/15/brazil-rope-jump-bridge-woman-dies

    Frednk says:
    Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 9:29 am

    Looks real enough. Besides Donnie still wants that Nobel Peace Price (failing that maybe another FIFA Peace of Shit Prize?).

  38. A point made was that new/old ON supporters will not be too fussed about policy “glitches” as it were as they think the while system is busted. It isn’t of course, but that is their world view. For this we can thank what is happening in the US and Trump.
    The contradiction of ON not to fussed about “policies” is that its new band of supporters expect ‘their’ policies to be put in place – and if not – well just junk the whole system.
    MAGA has a lot to answer for – and its brothers and sisters in other democracies.
    At the end of the day aiming to ‘reason’ with ON supporters is, essentially, a waste of time and effort.

  39. Voice Endeavour says:
    Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 8:49 am

    Hard Being Green says:
    Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 7:07 am

    Maybe the UK Navy could do something about the Russian ships hanging about in the English Channel although I’m not sure they have enough boats to do that …

    The Greens plan is to have no Australian warships at all. According to the official Greens policy site they are ‘unstrategic’.

    Whatever that means.

    If the UK wanted to deal with a Russian warship in the English channel, the response would be some combination of naval drones, aerial drones and missiles fired from on or above British soil.

    Sending a very expensive ship to deal with a very expensive ship is not a sensible approach.

    But, more realistically, this was just a face saving excercise from Russia and the UK rightfully ignored it. Russia had to respond to the UK seizing a shadow fleet tanker, and they chose a response that didn’t actually harm the UK or its interests.

    It’s like when people give the USA advanced notice that they’re going to target a shed at a US base in the middle east, the USA just moves stuff out of the shed and lets it get blown up. It’s an off-ramp

    Golly, the Greens sure are all for murderously sinking ships when push comes to shove!

    I suppose that they have figured out that with missiles you have only one choice: do nothing or sink the ship by firing the missile. OTOH, with another ship you have a floating presence with all sorts of tactical options. But, according to the Greens, that would be ‘unstrategic’. They don’t actually define ‘unstrategic’ but it applies to everything in the ADF that the Greens intend to destroy.

    The Greens are intent sinking our own ships. Australia does not need defending so the important thing is to sink our ships first. Because the are ‘unstrategic’.

    Heshbollah has drones and missiles. Israel has JSFs, ships along the Lebanon coast, long range 155mm howitzers, and, of course missiles, drones and glide bombs. Guess which side just completely trashed which? Ditto, Hamas in Gaza.

    Ukraine is using the F-16s to deadly effect. How? They can cheaply carry the cheap glide bombs which have the really heavy warheads required to destroy buildings and bunkers. The Ukraine is putting the Abrams tanks to good use as well. Ditto the 155mm heavy artillery. Along with missiles and drones, of course.

    The main lesson which the Greens will ignore because they already know everything? Combined arms is all the go.

    But if your plan is to leave Australia defenceless then sink our own ships, burn our own planes, throw our artillery and tanks into the Tasman, destroy our defence industries, sack 50,000 people, and hey nonny no the Greens are ready to go.

    It is hard to pick between the two poles of defence policy stupidity: the Greens on 1% defence (which is not enough to pay the ADF, let alone buy or maintain missiles and drones) and ON on 5% of GDP for defence.

  40. Sprocket
    You give a lot of importance to the context of the photo.

    PM Modi takes centre stage with Trump, Macron in front row of G7 leaders
    Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s front-row position alongside US President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron in the official G7 leaders’ photograph at Evian underscored India’s growing global influence.

    https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/pm-narendra-modi-g7-summit-front-row-donald-trump-emmanuel-macron-india-global-clout-france-2927984-2026-06-16

  41. nath may need irrefutable evidence but here it is about his icon Musk

    Turns out Musk’s AI bot doesn’t just sexualize kids—it bombs them

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/6/16/800056475/news/trump-musk-grok-bomb-iran/

    Elon Musk’s chatbot Grok, which notoriously espoused pro-Hitler sentiments and produced sexualized images of children, was reportedly used by the Trump administration in its bombing campaign against Iran.

    The disclosure was revealed in a court filing from the Justice Department on Monday. The Trump administration is hoping to help xAI—Musk’s company that owns Grok—dismiss a lawsuit brought by the NAACP.

    The DOJ claimed that the suit would get in the way of xAI’s work helping the military “meet its national security mission and keep pace with adversaries.”

    The filing said that Grok was used as part of Operation Epic Fury, President Donald Trump’s bombing campaign against Iran, and to help the military use munitions against 2,000 targets.

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