The monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers joins most others in showing One Nation leading on the primary vote in its latest monthly result, with a five-point surge placing them at 29%. Labor is down one to 28%, the Coalition are down three to 20% (16% among women, equal with the Greens), and the Greens are steady on 12%.
Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up one to 35%, while his poor and very poor rating is down one to 55%. Angus Taylor is respectively up one to 38% and up three to 32%. This pollster has been unusual in having Angus Taylor leading Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister and does so again now, though the margin has narrowed from 33-30 to 32-31. A three-way preferred prime minister question, asked for the first time, suggests most of those favouring Taylor over Albanese in fact prefer Pauline Hanson to either: she is at 33% compared with 29% for Albanese and 16% for Taylor.
The poll again inquired about the three main contentious budget measures, finding 33% in favour of the negative gearing changes (down two on last month) with 26% opposed (up five); 31% in favour of the capital gains tax measures (down five) and 31% opposed (up 10); and 29% in favour of the changes to taxing of family trusts (down five) and 34% opposed (up 11). The poll was conducted Monday to Saturday from a sample of 1801.
Asha says:
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 8:32 pm
The evidence is the opinion polls. Outside of an actual election, they are the only thing reliable way to get an idea of the public mood.
——————————————
Before the 2025 federal election , there were 3 federal by elections , the opinion polls were showing swing against Labor and swings to federal liberal party.
In each of the Victorian by-elections Labor contested Swings were to Labor and against Liberal party ,
In the Qld by election in the Safe LNP seat, swing to the federal Lnp and Labor primary vote was very close to the 2022 federal election primary.
And yet the narrative from the opinion polling didn’t change , there was still this mysterious swing to the federal lib/nats , even though recent real time voting didn’t show it .
ACT Greens apparently electing their new leader at present, it’ll be interesting to see where they land
Bring on the YouGov poll
So, in keeping interest rates on hold it seems Australia has gone against the international trend.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/16/business/japan-interest-rates-war.html
Peaking FAR too soon, she is.
I think the Pauline appeal is because, love her or hate her, what you see is what you get as a perception in people’s minds. That probably why the fire the liar campaign will likely get some traction.
An exciting field of four possibles. I reckon they will go for Jo Clay. Or maybe Crash Braddock.
Asha
Yes you are right , opinion polling is the guide ,
the only real time evidence so far after the 2025 federal election is the farrar by-election that one nation is getting the swing from federal liberal party.
Aorta get a plane to fly over the stadium with ‘Pauline has never told a lie. Ever.’
Speaking of terminal:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JSdLNJW0ct4
Scott says:
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 8:47 pm
Asha
Yes you are right , opinion polling is the guide ,
the only real time evidence so far after the 2025 federal election is the farrar by-election that one nation is getting the swing from federal liberal party.
==========
Farrer is difficult because Labor sat that one out.
HBG – about 15 minutes away.
@davidwh at 8:46pm
Then why does she seem to be so aggressively secretive and only does interviews with media that is known to be friendly and sympathetic to her?
If anyone in Labor tried shit like that then they’d be guillotined.
Labor 26% on the last YouGov (2 weeks ago).
I’m tipping they’ll jump up a tic, maybe a point.
davidwh says:
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 8:46 pm
I think the Pauline appeal is because, love her or hate her, what you see is what you get as a perception in people’s minds. That probably why the fire the liar campaign will likely get some traction.
===============
Just hit $4.4 a couple of minutes ago.
It will probably tick up again tomorrow arvo – after the Press Council thing – just depends if the journo’s go hard or soft. If they go “hard” on her, it will probably tick up to $5m.
nadia says:
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 8:50 pm
Scott says:
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 8:47 pm
Farrer is difficult because Labor sat that one out.
—————————————-
Another thing the National party had a candidate running as well , The One Nation candidate primary vote of 39%+ did fall short of Sussan Ley primary vote 43%+ at the 2025 federal election.
Scott says:
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 8:58 pm
nadia says:
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 8:50 pm
Scott says:
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 8:47 pm
Farrer is difficult because Labor sat that one out.
—————————————-
Another thing the National party had a candidate running as well , The One Nation candidate primary vote of 39%+ did fall short of Sussan Ley primary vote 43%+ at the 2025 federal election.
========
True, but Sussan Ley wasn’t dealing with a O.N. candidate in 2025.
BB
Perhaps a more honest slogan for Pauline might be:
“Help Gina avoid paying tax!
Vote One Nation.”
Latest YouGov
* ON 28 (-1)
* ALP 26 (nc)
* LNP 21 (+1)
* GRN 13 (nc)
* Oth/Ind 12 (nc)
Where’s that being published, Nadia? That’s, what, 6 polls now showing ON ahead of the ALP. Agreed with others saying Albanese, and the government more broadly, are starting to look rattled.
nadia says:
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 8:59 pm
True, but Sussan Ley wasn’t dealing with a O.N. candidate in 2025.
————————————————————
There was a one nation candidate at the 2025 federal election seat of Farrar
primary vote was 6.60%.
Thanks Nadia, not much happening there
Combined “majors” still sub 50
“Peaking FAR too soon, she is.”
She’s making a dickload of money while approaching retirement age. It’s probably all going to plan for her
Link: https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/one-nation-leads-primary-vote-as-80-per-cent-of-voters-say-party-ready-to-govern-by-2028-sky-news-pulse-yougov-poll/news-story/0943b53d79d1e4fb27860c4020be7642
One Nation has redrawn the electoral map as it maintains its lead as the number one political party in the country. According to the latest Sky News Pulse / YouGov survey, conducted from June 9 to 16, One Nation has captured 28 per cent of the primary vote, ahead of Labor on 26 per cent.
The Coalition trailed on 21 per cent, with the Greens capturing 13 per cent and independent or other parties at 12 per cent.
Labor led both the Coalition and One Nation on a 52-48 two-party preferred basis among all voters, but this was heavily divided by age.
Seventy per cent of the two-party preferred vote among 18-34 year-olds would go to Labor, while 58 per cent of people aged over 50 had their votes directed to One Nation.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/one-nation-leads-primary-vote-as-80-per-cent-of-voters-say-party-ready-to-govern-by-2028-sky-news-pulse-yougov-poll/news-story/0943b53d79d1e4fb27860c4020be7642
Trollers abound.
nadia says:
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 8:57 pm
davidwh says:
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 8:46 pm
I think the Pauline appeal is because, love her or hate her, what you see is what you get as a perception in people’s minds. That probably why the fire the liar campaign will likely get some traction.
===============
Just hit $4.4 a couple of minutes ago.
It will probably tick up again tomorrow arvo – after the Press Council thing – just depends if the journo’s go hard or soft. If they go “hard” on her, it will probably tick up to $5m.
_____________________________
Pauline has to get the merch shop open – we need the ON flags, hats, shirts, stickers the whole MAGA. Next will be the Pauline steaks, phones, sneakers, Barnaby Bibles, PHONCoins, NFTs and the begging donation emails, just cant use the name Hanson as we already have a Hanson band – mmm Bop
2PP is 52-48 ALP versus either.
Preferred PM Albo 43 v Taylor 38, or Albo 48 v Hanson 41
Quite a contrast to what turned up on Resolve on Sunday night.
Probably not the worst poll for the ALP or Albo, of recent times.
The Wombat
You have to wonder what it will take for some here to get the message.
Or even accept that there is one.
Albo net/sat
Good = 35%
Bad = 60% (similar figure to Newspoll 9 days ago)
So net /sat = minus 25.
Not at JA levels, but not the best.
If one nation primary vote can not get consistently over 30% in the opinion polling and stuck at 28/29%
The federal lib/nats may have a chance of limiting the seats loses to One nation in the 41 seats they currently hold .
Who knows may save Angus Taylor Leadership
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/former-one-nation-mlc-sarah-game-joins-family-first-in-shock-political-move/news-story/5d2aa0814ba741d2c6005f268e1eb4b3
archive version (no paywall): https://archive.is/gl3AX
One Nation turned Independent MLC Sarah Game is making another shock political move, joining the reborn Family First Party as their first representative in state parliament.
The Advertiser can reveal that Ms Game has joined Family First and will be the party’s lead Legislative Council candidate at the next state election in 2030.
Player One says:
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 9:14 pm
You have to wonder what it will take for some here to get the message.
Or even accept that there is one.
———————————
2 more budgets til the 2028 federal election
Who knows where the political landscape will be in 2030, but despite their traditional strength in SA, FF will fail to break through is ON is still a force.
Didn’t Game have her own party in 2025 and during the 2026 election? What made her join Family First?
We get the message. Hanson is going to increase defence spending to 5%, conscript 300,000 eighteen year olds and send the ADF to war in Iran.
She said so.
So that is the message.
Oh and she is going to cut taxes.
So SOMETHING else is going to have to give.
Education?
Medicare?
Free TAFE?
What?
I never thought I’d concede i agree on anything with you Scott, but I still think the ALP will probably win the next election, although it’s a while away and shit is happening fast. What I am even more certain of, though, is the next parliamentary term is going to be complete chaos. And I ain’t a big fan of chaos.
One Nation’s ‘Svengali’ taps Trump’s vibe to mastermind Hanson’s rise
James Ashby has built a Trump-style digital machine that has left Labor, Coalition and Greens strategists flat-footed.
From the Oz
As I said it’s the Trump playbook all the way to the next election.
It rained in Antarctica last week.
It is winter.
The rain melted the ice.
Hanson’s message is that climate science is a fraud.
THAT’s the message.
She didn’t just buy them a jet: One Nation flies air Gina, wears Gina
If fashion is a language, as German designer Karl Lagerfeld famously observed, then Pauline Hanson’s wardrobe is speaking fluent Gina Rinehart.
My goodness. This discourse on here tonight is incredibly banal.
Albo tripped on a stage. WGAF?
ALP rattled? Horsepooh.
A helicopter flying overhead. Big deal.
A politician accused of lying? Well I never.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 9:25 pm
We get the message………..
……..What?
==========
You forgot to add conscription Boer.
Anyway, the primary for the ALP appears to have bottomed out.
Albo’s net/sat isn’t ideal, but as most know the net/sat or PPM figures don’t elect a gov’t.
Additionally, on YouGov, he’s still ahead of both Taylor & Hanson on the PPM metric.
That will be ignored and the headlines tomorrow will be “Albo needs to resign or whatever”.
GG needs to issue writs.
26% primary is not ideal. It was 28% on both Resolve & Morgan recently, and 30% on Newspoll nine days ago. The next Newspoll might drop the primary down to 29%, but there is “nothing falling of the cliff”.
I think the worst of the post-budget period is over.
Oh, and the word “fire” is a Trump/ Yank expression. “Sacked” Is common parlance here.
Another clue that the Yank Trumpistanians are advising One Nation.
Prime Minister Hanson is going to be a hoot.
That is the message.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-is-using-an-iranian-smuggling-tactic-sneak-oil-out-gulf-2026-06-16/
Exclusive: The US is using an Iranian smuggling tactic to sneak oil out of the Gulf
Apache shot down by Iran on June 9 was involved in ship-to-ship transfer mission
Convoys sail dark with disabled transponders, spacing departures 3,000-4,000 meters apart
At least 92 ships have taken part since early May
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-16/two-men-arrested-by-dezi-freeman-investigators/106804586
Police believe Dezi Freeman crossed into New South Wales during his time on the run after shooting dead two Victorian police officers.
Two men were today arrested by detectives investigating Freeman’s movements after the Porepunkah shootings in August last year.
Police executed seven warrants at properties across Victoria and New South Wales this morning.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-16/michael-tate-funeral-st-marys-cathedral-hobart/106799584
Hundreds of people have gathered to farewell Father Michael Tate, a Catholic priest, law professor and former federal justice minister.
Fr Tate died on June 5, aged 80.
He is being remembered as a generous man whose life was one of “warmth and service to others”.
Nadia, despite it being a widely discussed narrative that the ALP has had stepwise a post-budget fall in support, i don’t think Bludgertrack or other polling averages really show any significant deviation in a trend that’s been there for a year now. It’s very close to a straight line. I see no reason not to extrapolate that fairly straight line decline out into the future. Especially when I look at the international experience of similar recent changes in the electorate across the western world. I look at the polls in the UK and shudder at the chaos i see in those numbers. I’m pretty certain we are just a bit behind, although I do guess it’s more likely the ALP will limp into minority government than any alternative outcome.
Net zero by 2030.
I can’t even contemplate 2027 yet, let alone 2030. We live in truly bizarre times. I don’t think the ALP will end up where UK Labour is, but I’m running out of reasons why they won’t. It just feels impossible.
nadia @ #523 Tuesday, June 16th, 2026 – 8:04 pm
He stepped backwards off a temporary stage. One of his feet into mid air. It was about 400 mm high (two ordinary stairs) There was a curtain there, and no indication, or bar to stop a person doing that. It was simply bad luck that the person to do so was him. He landed on his bum, and immediately got up. In his mind, because that is what happened, he didn’t fall off, he stepped backwards off. Different, you see.
I have hit the ground/floor multiple times, mostly when tackled playing rugby. I don’t think of those as falls. Once when a bookcase I was leaning on fell on me. Broke my back. Very painful, but no lasting damage, except phantom back pains. Not a fall.
Another time, some idiot had laid a single course of bricks across a brick footpath in a public primary school in Marrickville, and neglected to paint them yellow. Nearly invisible, especially when you are opening a snack pack of Jatz and cheese, when walking along quite normally. I hooked my toe and landed straight forward, head first, smashing my glasses into my nose. Two nights in PA. That was a fall.
Albo’s was a mis-step, caused by others’ negligence.
I can only think of one nation that has clearly reversed this trend, and that’s Canada. I really think Mr Albanese needs to copy what the Liberals did in Canada, although I think it still won’t work, because I can’t see a Mark Carney in the Labor ranks, and i think they may have left it too late. They’ve kinda nailed the colours to the mast.
Threaten to get annexed by Donald Trump?
I doubt we will see a Hanson PM however ON will continue to have some impact for a while yet. Hopefully not all the way to 2028.
Personally I think Labor will form the next government in some capacity most likely a majority.
The key question is what happens to the Libs longer term and will any moderates left have any say in the future of the party. Or will a new centre/right party rise from the ashes. There are no Menzies around that I’m aware of.