The Herald Sun has a Freshwater Strategy poll of state voting intention in Victoria that has Labor sinking four points from the last such poll in March to 23%, the Coalition down three to 27%, and One Nation up five to 25%. The report does not provide a result for the Greens, but the Coalition is credited with a 53-47 two-party preferred.
Jess Wilson’s lead over Jacinta Allan as preferred premier has blown out from 47-31 to 49-25, an unusually wide lead for an Opposition Leader over an incumbent. Allan’s net approval rating is down from minus 32 to minus 37, while Wilson’s is down from plus 18 to plus 15. Sixty-two per cent favoured dumping Allan before the November election, including 39% among Labor voters. The poll was conducted between Friday and today from a sample of 1034 – there are a few missing threads, so hopefully we will be hearing more from the print edition or directly from the pollster. I believe we will also see a Resolve Strategic bi-monthly state poll result from Nine Newspapers next week.
Other Victorian electoral news:
• A bill to re-establish a campaign finance regime was passed last week, after the relevant parts of the Electoral Act were struck down wholesale by the High Court in April. The bill restores various aspects of the old system, though not the one that prompted the court ruling, namely the exemption of the major parties’ investment funds from a $4950 cap on political donations over a four-year electoral cycle. It increases the cap to $7500, and also increases annual “administrative expenditure” funding (as distinct from the public election funding based on how many votes a party or candidate receives) from a maximum $1.775 million to $2.765 million. The donation cap is doubled for new candidates and parties and set at a transitional $10,000 for the current cycle. The Greens argued the donation cap down from $10,000 in agreeing to a deal with Labor that froze out the Coalition, who wanted it much higher. The Liberals are particularly aggrieved because the High Court ruling has cut them off from a major source of their funding.
• Merri-bek councillor Katerine Theodosis is Labor’s candidate to succeed the retiring Danny Pearson in Essendon. The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reported in late April that Theodosis was assured of the backing of the national executive after winning the support of the Right faction Australian Workers Union, and that the resulting fait accompli was inflaming resentment among local members already aggrieved by the circumstances in which Jo Briskey succeeded Bill Shorten in the federal seat of Maribyrnong. Pearson appeared to associate himself with Daniel White, a former staffer to Bill Shorten and rival aspirant for the AWU’s support.
• Labor’s new candidate for South Barwon is Rebecca Thistleton, a former Australian Financial Review journalist and state government media adviser who ran unsuccessfully in Melbourne in 2022. The seat’s incumbent is Darren Cheeseman, who was required to resign from the Labor party room in April 2024. Elsewhere, the difficult task of defending a 0.4% margin in Pakenham upon the retirement of Emma Vulin falls to Alessandra Soliven, a 23-year-old Philippines-born former electorate officer and Australian Services Union organiser; and a 0.3% margin in neighbouring Bass will be defended by Chris Buckingham, a gender equity training facilitator with Gippsland Women’s Health, following the retirement of Jordan Crugnale.
• Labor’s candidate for Brunswick is Gabriel Steger, an adviser to federal Cooper MP Ged Kearney, whom the Brunswick Voice reports was preselected unopposed. The seat will be vacated with the retirement of two-term Greens member Tim Read, and as with other Greens-held seats, it will be easier for Labor to win if the Liberals revert to putting the Greens last on their how-to-vote cards, a practice they departed from in 2022.
• The Liberal candidate for Ashwood is former Monash councillor Theo Zographos, who was cast aside in favour of the late Katie Allen as the party’s candidate for the federal seat of Chisholm after Allan’s former seat of Higgins was abolished. Other Liberal candidates for Labor-held seats include Paul Byrnes, a public service legal officer and former staffer to Matthew Bach and Mary Wooldridge, in Eltham; Clare Fitzmaurice, policy adviser to federal MP Anne Webster, in Monbulk; Bass Coast mayor Rochelle Halstead in Bass; David Kitchen, finance manager for a food processing company, in Bayswater; Steve Martin, an engineering manager who ran for the federal seat of Indi in 2019, in Benambra; and Max Williams, owner of a boutique communications consultancy, in Rowville.
• There have been recent retirement announcements from Tim Bull of the Nationals after 16 years as member for Gippsland East, and Gary Maas of Labor after eight years in Narre Warren South.
• The Australian’s Victoria Ink column reports Merri-bek councillor and former mayor Oscar Yildiz, who polled 23.5% as an independent in Pascoe Vale in 2018, is “preparing to launch an independent bid for Essendon”.
• One Nation is yet to announce any candidates, but has declared itself intent on contesting every seat.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of Victorian politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
53-47 to Labor I don’t think so..
A post of mine from a previous thread:
“Jacinta Allan needs to resign as Premier and clear the decks for a strong male leader who actually looks like he’s up for 1) the job and 2) the fight. They should immediately institute a ban on bail and automatic denial of any parole for the next 6 months, and tell the Police Commissioner to crack down on gang violence & deliver results or he can expect to find another job.
Victoria’s Labor members heavily lean female (particularly in the safest seats), and most of the men are four eyed nerds.
Get Paul Edbrook on the tren and preworkout, get John Lister a proper hair-cut, grow a beard, make him deputy and get some energy into the Party.”
Here’s something that would make Vic Labor change their mind about GTV tomorrow: getting 8 seats out of 40 in the upper house. Yes, it is actually possible. Eight regions, quota = 16.67% for each. If their statewide vote is in the 20s they’re not getting two quotas off the bat in too many regions, so they’re only guaranted one seat… now add microparty shenanigans. The nightmare scenario is 1.8 quotas turning into one seat – just like what happened to the Greens in 2018, only with an extra quota. Labor didn’t mind that because they got to deal with a liquorice allsort crossbench instead of the Greens, but it can bite them too.
Yes, I read that wrong. Fixed.
Copying myself from the other thread:
That Qld poll from earlier today was LNP 34, ALP 25, ON 24 with a 2pp of 58-42. The Vic one has the Libs a fair bit lower, so it should have a Lib 2pp in the 53-55 range (this is very handwavey).
Not that the concept of uniform 2pp swing means much these days, but the Vic pendulum has a couple of dozen seats in the ALP 6-10% range. Assuming uniform swing, they could hold on to government while losing 49-51, but dial it up to 45-55 and it suddenly becomes worse than 1992. This poll seems to be in the middle of that range, so it’s hard to pick. I’d call it bad, but not apocalyptic. (That missing Green vote will help a bit.)
Bit of a ropey guess at 2pp in Vic: ALP = 23 + 7/25 (ON) + 17/25 (Grn/other) = 47% vs Lib. Actually not terrible, considering they’re coming third. Alternative 2pp vs ON is probably a bit better for them due to Green prefs being even more anti-ON than anti-Lib, although considering how much the SA pendulum got reorganised it’s hard to say what seats would flip.
The Hun is presenting this poll as “get rid of Jacinta Allan or face a wipeout”. Presumably if she is replaced, Murdoch media, Nine Entertainment and Seven will then attack the new premier just as violently?
(edited to get quoted text correct)
The report does not provide a result for the Greens, but Labor is credited with a 53-47 two-party lead over the Coalition, though this would not avail them in seats where they ran third.
Not strictly true. You can have three way races, were the third on primary can win. The shortcut (preferences to top two candidates) only works if the distribution of the third candidate makes the distribution of the others irrelevant. These context do exist, they are ones that takes days as full distribution is required.
One nation, No candidates, no policy and they have the highest primary vote?
It’s dangerous to ignore poles however..
1) There is no history to know how the preferences will flow. It might me 53% to Labor, it might not be.
2) Without knowledge of how the vote is distributed it all means nothing.
Could easily be another SA result, one nation takes the country, Labor the city, the Liberals the scraps.
The Victorian Labor Government has transformed Melbourne. This is where the seats are.
We will see. The Herald Sun and Age are going to be disappointed if their campaign fails.
It’s too late to change leader, this polling isn’t surprising, Victoria has since 1970s had a habit of swinging against a government without any real movement in seat numbers at one election before dumping the government at the next election.
LL is scared of Labor dumping Allan.
Interesting.
Ghost Of Whitlam
Who’s scared of dumping Allan?
Ben Carroll is probably not happy with that small +2% primary vote if he takes over. If it was +4% or more it’d make more sense for him to move, but for a +2% it’s probably just not worth it
Still no Greens number?
I wonder why they didn’t publish it?
I can’t imagine changing leader will save Labor, especially if they go with a mediocre male. Pick the best person for the job if you’re going to do it imo
Not that it’s over yet, Labor has a decent lead in the seat count and One Nation is bound to come up with some dodgy candidates
Hopefully it lands on a minority Labor government with the Greens holding the balance of power
And they should definitely fix GVT’s before the election
She needs to go. Been saying it for a while now.
The MSM get Labor campaign continues and gathers steam.
The ON vote will drop once some scrutiny is applied. They are not serious people. We all love an angry mob, but will people actually vote for one.
The most primary votes for a party with no candidates and no policies! That’s a parked vote if ever I saw one.
Nonetheless these numbers are dire.
And no published vote for the Greens? That is a choice, and given it’s a Murdoch rag, a highly suspicious one!
Right. Off to work. Ciaou.
@Ghost of Whitlam
Yeah look even I am starting to think the whole government comes across soft and female centric.
Jess Wilson’s lead over Jacinta Allan as preferred premier has blown out from 47-31 to 49-25, an unusually wide lead for an Opposition Leader over an incumbent.
_______________________
Thats a massive lead for an Opposition Leader.
Lol Taylormade,
Jess Wilson will be lucky to hold onto her seat, if there is a swing against her
What it is showing if opinion polling is accurate
One nation is likely to gain a lot of of the liberal party 18 seats and national party 9 seats
Replacing Allan now is going to make very little difference, largely because there is no stand out in the wings. The voters will see it for what it is, a desperate move. After three terms they are carrying way too much baggage.
Based on these numbers, and I suspect they will get worse Labour at best will hold government by a seat or maybe 2. Although I think the most likely scenario is a Coalition win or perhaps a coalition/ON government – depressing
On the plus side if the coalition do win they will mess it up, I guess that’s not really a plus.
Greens vote is 14%, going by the article at the bottom of page 8 in today’s Herald Sun titled…
“Big Call coming for ALP HQ…..”
To quote paragraph 4 –
“Even if Labor were to receive every single Greens vote through preferences the combined tally of 37% leaves it well short of being in a winning position.”
ie: 37-23 = 14
Thanks Nadia
14 is a solid number for the Greens. Apparently the LNP is putting us last so see if that impacts things. I’m guessing One Nation will do the same
Noting that still leaves 11 with Others that doesn’t include One Nation anymore so I expect will lean left. That could get Labor into the mid 40’s. Still a pretty ordinary number though
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan vows to ‘see it through’ despite party discontent
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-09/vic-jacinta-allan-leadership-future-victoria/106775374
“Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan has brushed off questions about her leadership amid discontent from within her party, wheeling out the classic phrase: “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.”
An opinion poll published by News Corp this week reported a majority of voters believe it’s time for her to be replaced as Victoria Labor leader.
The Freshwater Strategy poll said that was also the opinion of 39 per cent of Labor voters.
The ABC understands some Labor MPs are becoming increasingly frustrated with the premier’s performance and are questioning her judgement, particularly over her handling of the CFMEU corruption scandal.”
Soulds like they are going to have to blast her out.
Maybe when she reaches a minus 50 approval rating.
On one hand this doesn’t sound good for Labor.
On the other hand, it seems pretty similar to the media narrative in the lead up to each of the last few elections, where apparently Labor were going to lose.due to Andrews’ unpopularity, he was going to lose his seat, etc. And we know how that turned out each time.
2022 Victorian State Election
Labor 57 seats , Lib/nats 28 seats
Freshwater opinion poll show
7% swing against Lib/nats combined primary vote (2022 Victorian Election) , puts the Liberal Party vote Below / equal Labor party Primary vote .
Lib/nats combined primary vote 4% ahead of labor
If there is a swing to one nation , who will likely take seats off the lib/nats ,
Labor has 8 seats with 2pp 54/46 or below
Lib/nats have 9 seats with 2pp 54/46 or below
makes it harder for lib/nats
Hopefully Victoria isn’t headed for a LNP/One Nation government, you’d be much better off with a Greens/Labor one
I’d be surprised if Tony Abbott’s comments today about right wing parties preferencing each other don’t apply down there as well
Although surely that’s a step too far for some Liberal, and potentially some One Nation, voters
Where are Teals?
Do Australian respondents to opinion polling have the same problem with female leaders as the old media ?
It seems to only affect Labor leaders like Jacinta Allan and Julia Gillard. Carmen Lawrence was savaged by the press. Anastacia Palaszczuk seemed to have escaped it although her opponent was Deb Freckleton (a woman). Once the LNP picked a bloke leader the press attacked Palaszczuk relentlessly.
In Victoria the Liberal leader is Jess Wilson.Her party is floundering in this poll while One Nation surges despite having no leader, no policies and no candidates.
Can any of this poll be taken seriously ???
Victoria is just a classic case of how socialist left wing suicidal empathy fails every time.
This is not the first time Victoria has been a financial disaster. Even the comedy show Fast Forward did a piece in the early 1990’s making a joke of the huge financial mess Victoria was in with Magda Szubanski singing a song as a nun. “How do you solve a problem like Victoria”.
All these places that embrace socialist suicidal empathy always eventually end up the same way. Australia is certainly going down the same path.. Some states faster then others. Victoria always was the most lefty state in Australia, so makes sense it fails first.
I commented on a Vic post a few months back about there being growing discontent amongst myself and other Labor voters I associate with. I was then basically labelled a secret Lib and a misogynist for daring to say that Jacinta was a big part of the problem. I’d consider myself a progressive but IMO Labor’s best bet would be to install Ben Carroll and make a few strategic steps back to the centre before the election campaign kicks into full gear. Not holding my breath though.
Jolly Jumbuck admitting they think empathy is a sin. What a sick, sad world we live in.
As for Jacinta, yeah, I’ll repeat what I said in the open thread, her time to change things around is up.
She was already on her second chance this time last year when she recovered in the polls somewhat after the indignity of almost losing the Werribee by-election in February 2025, but now it looks worse.
If she stays on like Kirner did, this might end up as the Victorian version of the 2012 Queensland election. Kirner was personally popular in the leadup to the 1992 election, but still Labor fell to Kennett about 44-56. On these numbers they’d be reduced to how they were in the Bolte days.
“PM speaks in support of Jacinta Allan
Anthony Albanese is speaking from Bendigo right now, where he has said the Victorian premier, Jacinta Allan, is “absolutely” the best person to lead the state.
Victoria needs a strong premier, they need someone who is a strong advocate.
Premier Allan was one of the first premiers to sign up to ensure that every school in Victoria, public and private, received full and fair funding from the Commonwealth government.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/jun/09/anthony-albanese-labor-one-nation-pauline-hanson-coalition-angus-taylor-ndis-jacinta-allan-victoria-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-6a279d408f08eda85cde6e77#block-6a279d408f08eda85cde6e77
It’s 14% Greens, per Maggie Perry @6NewsAU
Those numbers, while dire for Labor, also make a Coalition majority where they need to pick up 17 seats and not lose any, look incredibly unlikely if they are polling about -7 compared to their 2022 result.
The thing here is obviously that the results are probably wildly different across the electoral map, with One Nation probably running a clear first in the vast majority of seats outside Melbourne (boosting their overall primary) but running third or fourth in most of Melbourne, other than maybe some outer-suburban seats.
That’s bad news for the Coalition because it’s their own seats mostly at risk from One Nation. Just say the Coalition lose even 6 seats to One Nation, it means that to form a majority they will need to gain 23 seats instead of 17, when even 17 is a difficult task when your primary vote has gone backwards.
Basically, the Coalition increasingly look like they’d only be able to form government with One Nation.
All that said, Jacinta has to go. I am hoping that to avoid any sort of “spill” that makes Labor look no better than the Liberals, they get internal polling showing that she’s almost certain to lose her own seat, so she decides to announce her retirement and they hand the reins over.
I think a fresh face from a safe seat is best too. I think Ben Carroll should remain deputy and focus on retaining his own seat, while someone likeable who is relatively unknown and has very little baggage – someone like Steve Dimopolous – becomes the leader.
Honestly for Labor at this point, somebody who is neither a net positive or a net negative because they are mostly unknown, is far better than someone who is actively dragging their vote so significantly.
I say this as someone who actually likes Jacinta Allan and doesn’t understand why she’s so unpopular. But it’s clear that she is significantly dragging the Labor vote down.
Then Labor also just need to announce a few policies that signal a shift in tone & direction, to at least somewhat blunt the whole “fresh start” angle of the Liberals’ campaign. Not that it won’t still be effective after 12 years of Labor (and 23 of the past 27 years), but a change in leader, tone & policy for Labor will at least subdue that a bit. And of course, focusing on the likelihood of the Liberals having to govern with One Nation could also help save some critical Melbourne seats.
On current polling, and with Jacinta Allan as premier, my prediction would be:
– Jacinta loses her seat;
– Neither major party can form a majority;
– LIB/NAT/ONP combine for 44-46 seats while ALP/GRN combine for 42-44 seats
A change of leader to anyone but Jacinta dragging the Labor vote down, would probably at least flip that seat prediction around, and LIB/NAT/ON would more likely fall short of 44 seats.
Fairly good comment, Trent at 5:39pm.
Victorian Labor needs to knife Allan before it is “lights out”. She is much less popular than the Labor brand itself. Therefore, she is a drag on the party. Clearly, she hasn’t worked out as leader. Almost anyone else in the caucus would be a preferred leader at this stage. That might save some furniture (*).
My contacts within the Victorian ALP tell me that their last election campaign was terribly run and they only got away with how bad it was because the Liberals were worse. And from what I hear there is a real sense of doom at the moment – a last days of Rome sort of feeling.
* They will need furniture because if the alternative is a coalition of Liberal, National and a bunch of newby One Nation MPs it will be pure chaos. A comeback in 2032 would not be an impossibility.
@Trent, I agree that Victoria Labor would need have something akin to the change of leadership in Canadian Liberals from Justin Trudeau to Mark Carney by portraying this pathway as ‘a change of government without changing the government itself’.
The thing Labor have going for them is that with an 11 seat majority, 8% pendulum and the collective “right” needing to gain 17 seats compared to the last election, even a result that would be considered a wipeout in most elections (-8% 2PP swing, double digit primary vote swing, and between 16-18 seat losses) would result in a 50/50 chance of them narrowly retaining some of government, and if they lose, the Liberals likely only being able to get over the line in minority with One Nation (and even then probably not much more than 45 seats combined).
That’s why I think even just replacing the leader who is a significant drag on their vote with basically anybody neutral who isn’t a vote drag could be enough to do much more than just save the furniture. Even recovering 2-3% of support could change the outcome.
Even Labor’s dire current polling position would probably only result in LIB, NAT and ON combining for just over 45 seats so it wouldn’t take a whole lot of recovery to change the outcome.
They need to act fast though and with as little damage as possible I think.
Both Jacinta Allan and Steve Miles need to hit the road. With dignity and their status within their parties preserved. For the good of the party. I like both but other voters clearly don’t.
And I think the ALP needs to drop the implicit or explicit links with social justice advocates who keep telling them to go soft on crims. It would not hurt the brand if the party went hard on everything – jail, remand, bail, evidence laws, upping the sentences, more coppers, whatever it needs.
I think a problem with that is that more recently Labor have already gone pretty hard with that stuff, but the fact is that those sort of “tough on crime” measures work politically but actually fail at reducing crime, so they end up kicking the problem down the road as crime continues to rise and next election cycle their only political option is to keep going tougher which is ineffective, it’s a vicious cycle.
I think what they need is the temporary appearance of going tough but to actually also implement some policies that are proven to work at preventing crime and reducing recidivism, so that medium to long term results can be also be achieved.
Hopefully some of the early intervention type policies they have in place concurrently with the more ineffective “adult time” will have a positive effect.
Politically, the problem with the policies that actually work is that they can take a couple of years for the results to really be seen.
Jeff Kennett weighs in on the election. Unpaywalled.
Link: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/jeff-kennett-the-signs-a-clear-victorians-will-vote-the-labor-government-out-at-the-november-state-election/news-story/f2016cb59db67936ddf5d692808f1166
Marh says:
Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 7:00 pm
@Trent, I agree that Victoria Labor would need have something akin to the change of leadership in Canadian Liberals from Justin Trudeau to Mark Carney by portraying this pathway as ‘a change of government without changing the government itself’.
===========
Too late Marh. There is no-one within the party who has any calibre, and they can’t get someone from outside because they need to hold a seat in Parliament to be Premier.
19 weeks to go – they’ll have to stick with Prem Allan.
If they want to toss her out mid June and replace her with some “non-entity” such as Steve Dimopoulos, then they can expect a primary with a “1” in front of it later in the year.
I’m thinking Ben Carroll will take over from Jacinta Allan
Trent is MVP in this thread as always.
“I say this as someone who actually likes Jacinta Allan and doesn’t understand why she’s so unpopular. But it’s clear that she is significantly dragging the Labor vote down.”
She’s a chick. Even worse she’s a Labor chick. It really is that simple.
Men, even in 2026, and many women, don’t like a chick in charge. It really is that simple.
It’s fairly obvious that some of the posters here don’t understand the Victorian electorate at all.
For a start both Bendigo and Ballarat seats (and further afield – perhaps even Corio) are Labor seats.
I can count about 7 seats which would go almost directly from Labor to One Nation.
Seats all along the west are ready to fall to the ONP – with only the Wyndham and Point Cook areas holding out due to the disapora.
The East will probably carry over to the Libs.
Labor polling third on PV is panic stations.
I was only aware of the duplication of the western Fwy when Jacinta canned the project lol.
There is a very real prospect on One Nation being the official opposition. And on the state level, it is crazy that One Nation is more popular in Victoria than Queensland.
People here are just deluding themselves.
Trent
I concur with your sentiments
Mabwm
Sadly. There is much truth to what you say.
I wonder what kind of warm hearted intervention you need to stop a 18 year old trying to hack another person to bits in a shopping centre using a machete.
That person already lives in one of the safest countries in the world, one of the most generous welfare safety nets, free public school, free tertiary education, free health care. What more do they need to not be a violent thug?
@Lee, the problem is that many of those seats that could very likely go from ALP to ON are seats that would probably have already been on the list to go to the Coalition (for example, I think the Libs would have already won seats like Ripon, Yan Yean and Melton while the Nats would have had a good shot in Bendigo East and Eureka), so while they would not be direct gains off the Libs, they would still be gaining seats that were probably among the 17 the Libs needed to gain rather than in addition to them.
I do think it’s likely that Labor lose between 15-18 seats in this upcoming election (at least based on current polling with Jacinta Allan dragging their vote down), but even 18 seats changing hands from left to right would only be a slim majority for the “right”.
The 2022 result was a 60-28 split between left & right so the right need a full 17 seats to flip to form government. Which is very possible (even likely on current polling) but I don’t necessarily think ON are winning too many seats that weren’t already on the Coalition’s target list, so I don’t think ON are really expanding the list of seats that might flip to the right too much, they are mostly just making it more likely that the Coalition win in minority rather than majority.
That’s why I think with the large buffer Labor have – needing to lose 17 seats to not be able to at least govern with the Greens – any small change that can salvage 2-3% of the potential swing away could be a game changer, especially if it’s in the right places.
If ON weren’t a factor, right now I’d tip the Libs to pick up a good 16 seats while the Nats probably pick up Bendigo East and Eureka, but ON are a wildcard and could even save Labor two ways:
– Weak preference flows between LIB & ON blunting the 2CP swings in some multicultural outer suburban seats with 8-11% margins;
– Fear of the Libs having to govern with ON saving Labor in some more inner/middle seats on 7-8% margins like Bentleigh and Box Hill
The fact is that Labor are dangerously close to losing government for the first time in ages here, the polling has hit that critical point now. So they need to do something fast and really have nothing to lose.
But looking at the Preferred Premier ratings and the huge negative approval for Allan, it’s clear that she’s unfortunately a huge drag on their vote.
They don’t need a leader who will give them a net positive, they simply need one to neutralise the current negative leader drag, and they will at least be competitive.