The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two points to 27.5%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation up one to 25.5% and the Greens up two to 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences is in from 54-46 to 53-47. A Labor-versus-One Nation result has the former leading 53.5-46.5 – I believe we may be getting this in future instead of the Labor-versus-Coalition result based on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from 1613.
Also just out is the monthly Essential Research poll, which has Labor down a point to 29%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation (who have either improved or held steady in every monthly result from this series since March last year) up three to 28% and the Greens steady on 11%, with the undecided component down a point to 4%. The pollster’s respondent-allocated 2PP+ measure, which has been weaker for Labor than other pollster’s two-party measures, has Labor in front for the first time since December, the 48-47 result (the balance being undecided) comparing with 49-47 to the Coalition last month. However, personal ratings for Anthony Albanese are his worst yet from this series, his approval down four to 37% and disapproval up three to 54%, and the regular national mood result has a two-point drop in “right direction” to 28% and a four-point increase in “wrong track” to 58%, the worst result since Labor came to power.
Twenty-five per cent expressed approval of the budget with 39% disapproving and 24% neutral, which is at the better end of comparable results in post-budget polling. As in other such polling, responses to its most contentious measures was more positive: winding back negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount on property was supported by 33% and opposed by 27%, with 26% neutral; and tax changes on shares and investments were supported by 32% and opposed by 29%, with 26% neutral. However, only 26% supported the changes on trusts, with 38% opposed. Twenty-eight per cent thought the housing system would be more fair for young people, 30% thought less fair and 22% felt it would make no difference.
The immigration policies announced by Angus Taylor in his budget reply speech found strong support, with 58% in favour of capping immigration to the number of new house builds and 14% opposing, and 57% in favour of limiting welfare to Australian citizens, with 19% opposed. The report in The Guardian relates that the sample size was 1027; it was conducted, I assume, from last Wednesday to this Monday. The full report should be on the pollster’s website later today.
The next campaign will be interesting – will Labor go negative? I’m imagining a lot of the ON candidates will have a ton of skeletons in their closets that could take up all the air time
Miskal I’m not going to name one country because there’s many you have to remember this is compulsory voting like and we don’t do first pass the post also we got two years also why are people panicking two years out from an election if this was a month maybe but you don’t know what could happen in two years I don’t know what could happen two years maybe one nation implodes maybe they’ll get a bunch of seats in parliament and bunch of people becomes independent you have to remember it’s Pauline one nation not Australia’s one nation it’s her way in the highway and well for a lot of people it’s the highway
Pretty easy to tell a pollster you’re going to vote One Nation 2 years before an election.
Miskal do you realize that anyone could have defeated Labor in 2013 seriously like Labour’s only got themselves to blame for that 6 years of government also Scott Morrison let’s be honest a was the devil you know rather than the devil you don’t know election and look how quickly he lost popularity the problem Pauline Hanson has she does not want Power cuz she has to get responsibilities the reason she can attack the government is at the moment no one’s asking her the hard questions and when it comes but when it comes election time well it’d be like Peter 2025 everyone the liberals were gonna win it last year and look what happened I’m not saying don’t be careful I’m just saying don’t panic
‘It’s Pauline one nation not Australia’s one nation it’s her way in the highway and well for a lot of people it’s the highway’.
I read that as, Highway to Hell, AC/DC style!
Bonzasays:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 10:55 pm
The next campaign will be interesting – will Labor go negative? I’m imagining a lot of the ON candidates will have a ton of skeletons in their closets that could take up all the air time
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As the vast majority of ON winnable seats are against the LNP and not Labor. I think Labor, in these majority of cases, can probably sit back and eat the popcorn. As the LNP tries to defend their seat against the ON candidate by bringing out the dirt file.
QR, quick question – which media outlets are going to ask hanson and her ilk these “hard questions”?
Hanson has banned the ABC from her PCs. Its just Trump 101 all over again. If I was Labor I would just attack ON and Hanson of being Trumpists and MAGAlike and keep giving of examples why. Plenty of ammo there.
Miskals ABC The Age Sydney Herald you know you can’t just go to your safe safe spaces like a certain Peter did but that’s problem if she wants to be like let’s say the opposition because I don’t think she has his chance government next turn it’s a big responsibility for her you can’t just keep whining Muslims and s*** because well the people who are get angry that would probably end up dying so can I ask you a question do you think one nation has a chance next election because I really doubt they do. Steve Davis well that ain’t good for because well that didn’t work out great for Peter she can’t keep preaching to the choir
I doubt the One Nation juggernaut is going away anytime soon and will likely last until the next election. At the risk of being labelled a racist I think a big part of this is a reaction by many Australians against feeling they don’t somehow belong in our country or if they do it’s only under sufferance.
Another big part is a feeling that the major parties no longer really represent a great many Australians so people are turning to alternatives. An “up yours establishment” reaction.
The Coalition have to take a fair amount of blame due to their self indulgent self destruction when the Nats decided to end the coalition twice in a short period of time.
Then there is the ongoing move of the Liberals further to the right which began under Dutton but has intensified in recent months. I can’t see the Liberals being a major party in the future if they abandon the middle ground.
So many factors impacting on the current ON explosion and none of them are simple.
You know what guys maybe I shouldn’t read the the pole bludger anymore I don’t think one nation has a chance in hell but the way some people think going to end up as a one party state with Queen Pauline I’ll talk to you guys tomorrow which makes me not good at all
Quentin Rountreesays:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 11:23 pm
You know what guys maybe I shouldn’t read the the pole bludger anymore I don’t think one nation has a chance in hell but the way some people think going to end up as a one party state with Queen Pauline
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I don’t think that anyone is saying that. On the other hand her campaign does seem to have the momentum of a runaway freight train.
And if this continues I will be forced to get behind ON and help round up bludgers to toil in her open air prisons.
naths yeah she does have Momentum at the moment but the problem is can that Momentum also get seats in the Urban areas people acting this one poll is the election results as a one-party state and we all bow down to Queen Pauline I think people are panicking too much
A great deal of One Nation’s chances of electoral success depends on our friends the Australian mainstream media. Their tolerance will be absolutely necessary. So far they’re delivering.
Let’s see what happens in Victoria.
BSA Bob I think the problem one nation has is at the moment they’re fine with the media friends but the problem is I don’t think they’re going to get like elected a still think it’s Labor the other problem is what happened when Pauline Hanson leaves or dies one nation dies with it
Hanson is $9.50 to be PM after next election.
So really not a groundswell yet.
Diogenes well if you read some Reddit comments in the redbridge polling labour is gonna lose it all because apparently lies like so like get ready in 2028 when we’re all crying when Labor loses apparently for I do wish to see one nation government to see how long they last I’ll give it a year Tops
Thomas Brian Mutter says:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 10:25 pm
Labor is just barely in front of One Nation right now.
The striking feature of that graph is the one nation poll results seem to be all over the place. Must take some creative maths to get it to tick up like that.
We must treat sensationalized opinion polls with a heavy dose of skepticism, particularly when they produce outlier data that artificially inflates and overstates the rise of right-wing populism. It is vital to remember that a poll is merely a static snapshot of a single moment in time an emotional, knee-jerk reaction from a small sample of voters responding to immediate headlines or a fresh piece of news. These figures do not represent deep seated ideological transformations; rather, they capture transient public frustration where people use a phone call or an online survey to vent their anxieties. When political commentary treats these highly volatile fluctuations as an inevitable reality, it distorts the actual democratic landscape and creates a false narrative of where the country stands.
History has repeatedly exposed the dangers of putting too much faith in this kind of commentary. We only need to look back to the 2025 federal election to see exactly how detached from reality the polling consensus can be. Leading up to that vote, media pundits and various polling organizations confidently declared that the government was doomed to failure and that a historic defeat was on the horizon. Yet, despite the widespread narrative that victory was impossible, Labor defied the commentators to secure a record parliamentary majority. This stark contrast serves as a powerful reminder that voters behave much differently in the quiet reflection of the ballot box than they do when answering a reactionary poll, proving that true democratic mandates are built on actual election days, not sensationalized media trends.
Daniel T that makes sense what you said but apparently there’s people on here read it basically saying that um Australian Labor is going to end up like UK labour and the US even though looking back at us polling it was legit 50/50 and also UK labour constantly puts their foot in it I haven’t seen everything done that yet
The problem with the reassuring line that One Nation will eventually have to face scrutiny is that it ‘aint necessarily so. Abbott went years without any real scrutiny from our media friends. Which is why he won. When it all comes down to brass tacks the objective is to keep the ALP out of power.
Bsa bob yeah but the thing with Tony Abbott and I think people forget is that labour between 2007 and 2013 kind of killed themselves you know with the whole um Kevin Gillard Kevin which made it easy for Tony Abbot to attack but he’s the problem you can’t compare someone like Tony Abbott to Pauline like people acting like labours gonna end up extinct like a couple of posters in that Reddit who think you know this is gonna be like USA 2024 even though when you look back at the polling it was 50/50 for most of it
Daniel, do your “sensationalised” (note spelling) polls include the ones that cover the three months before the 2025 election, when the Lib vote crashed? Or were they the non-sensationalised ones?
I don’t think you know what the word “outlier” means. If there are five polls, One Nation got in the mid 20s in four and above 30% in the other, then the outlier is that one last poll; not every one of them just because you didn’t like what they said.
Your whole comment has the smell of AI about it. The American spelling doesn’t help.
B.S. Fairman at 7.20 pm, Confessions at 7.29 pm, Steve777 at 7.33 pm and Kirsdarke at 7.37 pm
The best comment on Bronnie’s polling was a Moir cartoon with umpteen Bronnies busying themselves with self-promotion, and all to nought.
Hanson is reported to be eyeing off Capricornia after M. Landry retires. She could win it only with LNP prefs. Ultimately they will decide on her future.
They will be a pathetic bunch if, having seen Hanson attract many of their erstwhile voters due to their infighting, they then decide not to block her.
And the Sky headline at the moment:-
The Murdoch Media know exactly what their doing!
Who amongst the house ownership cohort hasn’t benefitted from property price increases during the last how many years!
Those benefitting from paying less CGT have Howard to thank.
Australia sufferes from having an overseas vested interest media performing an election campaign for a non existent opposition with blurred policy boundaries and “get Labor” at any price.
The price is a policy free Pauline, an opportunistic ex National, and Australia with many voters believing that they are missing out.
Sky of course will follow up with a piece outlining the tax saving assessment for Pauline, Barnaby, Ashby, Gina, Abbott, Taylor… . . Oh wait!
New thread.