The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two points to 27.5%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation up one to 25.5% and the Greens up two to 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences is in from 54-46 to 53-47. A Labor-versus-One Nation result has the former leading 53.5-46.5 – I believe we may be getting this in future instead of the Labor-versus-Coalition result based on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from 1613.
Also just out is the monthly Essential Research poll, which has Labor down a point to 29%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation (who have either improved or held steady in every monthly result from this series since March last year) up three to 28% and the Greens steady on 11%, with the undecided component down a point to 4%. The pollster’s respondent-allocated 2PP+ measure, which has been weaker for Labor than other pollster’s two-party measures, has Labor in front for the first time since December, the 48-47 result (the balance being undecided) comparing with 49-47 to the Coalition last month. However, personal ratings for Anthony Albanese are his worst yet from this series, his approval down four to 37% and disapproval up three to 54%, and the regular national mood result has a two-point drop in “right direction” to 28% and a four-point increase in “wrong track” to 58%, the worst result since Labor came to power.
Twenty-five per cent expressed approval of the budget with 39% disapproving and 24% neutral, which is at the better end of comparable results in post-budget polling. As in other such polling, responses to its most contentious measures was more positive: winding back negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount on property was supported by 33% and opposed by 27%, with 26% neutral; and tax changes on shares and investments were supported by 32% and opposed by 29%, with 26% neutral. However, only 26% supported the changes on trusts, with 38% opposed. Twenty-eight per cent thought the housing system would be more fair for young people, 30% thought less fair and 22% felt it would make no difference.
The immigration policies announced by Angus Taylor in his budget reply speech found strong support, with 58% in favour of capping immigration to the number of new house builds and 14% opposing, and 57% in favour of limiting welfare to Australian citizens, with 19% opposed. The report in The Guardian relates that the sample size was 1027; it was conducted, I assume, from last Wednesday to this Monday. The full report should be on the pollster’s website later today.
It is hilarious how the politically left do not get it.
They are going wah wah wah hanson this, that and the other, totally ignoring why people are flocking there. They think albanese and labor or the greens are the bestest of the best and have always been the best and always will be the best. Essentially so blinded by zealotry they will not just accept that Australia has been heading down the wrong path for a long, long, long time, under crap local, state and federal government’s.
I am many others do not give two shits what greens, labor, liberals,nationals say any more. They were all instrumental in heading down this path.
Miskal
Increased supply would cut property prices and every property crash has seen increase in forced selling and more supply.
“Increased supply would cut property prices and every property crash has seen increase in forced selling and more supply.”
Which means first mover advantage is in play for those sitting on now slightly less shiny property portfolios
Even less reason for people to sit on them
I think this Redbridge poll is a pretty accurate ‘now cast’ of the zeitgeist.
Rather than put shite on Kos, how about actually read/listen to what he is saying and try some basic comprehension skills.
Albo/Labor is on the nose 3 weeks after the budget because of an industrial strength scare and loathing campaign being run by the United Anti-Labor Party in circumstances where it is pretty clear that most folk who are baying the loudest have next to NFI about what the changes actually mean (anyone copped a load of “Hughsey’s” social media recently, FFS) and the changes wont actually take effect until a period starting next year and ending up after the election (this is particularly dumb politics by Jim to leave the government hanging in the breeze on this issue for the next two years) and – worse – are not accompanyied by a big fat tax bribe to make more palatable. Maybe that tax bribe is coming next year, but IMO the savings measures should have been linked with each other as a historic ‘grand bargain’ by the introduction of a “middle class” 25% tax bracket (from $45,001 to whatever cap the budget can sustain), plus a cutting of the top marginal tax rate (which would take most of the sting out of the abolition of the 50% CGT deduction by itself).
Anyhoo, i digress. What is clear from an examination of the breakdown of this poll are the voting trends that Kos has been talking about for several years now:
ON now owns ‘the bush’ and regional Australia, and will – on current polling simply wipe out the NP and the united LNP in Queensland.
Howvere, this white nativist movement has polarised support in the bush and burbs to older, less educated and white-anglo voters.
The problem with this ‘ON on the cusp of government’ narrative is that the vast majority of voters living in the vast majority of seats are NOT of these tribes. In my view – something I’ve been saying for months now – ON could win its tribes by over 80%, thus winning a notional national 2PP vote against labor quite handily, but still – a ON spearheaded United Anti-Labor team will very likely fall far short of winning a majority of the 2CP vote in the vats majority of seats.
Nath opined earlier that “ I think the most important question for the next election is how many Labor seats will fall to ON”; while I do not necessarily agree with Scott’s prediction of “zero”, I think in the 20 or so Labor held seats where I could ON make the 2CP vote against Labor, less than ten are at serious risk. There are probably several Labor ‘surprise gains’ from 2025 that may be at risk of falling to the Liberal rump (ie. Hughes in NSW and Dunkley in Vic) but on the other hand some of the handful of seats the Libs still hold in metro Australia could fall – either to Labor or a Teal like Indi.
Against that, I’m pretty sure that Albo is wiley enough to reset the budget parameters next year to add in sufficient sweeteners to win back quite a few of those swinging voters who seem to have drifted away recently. I suspect that the inflation bubble is likely to burst soon, and that will give Albo some leg room for some middle class tax relief next year.
St this stage I reckon that the national 2PP in 2028 may well be as low as 50/50, but Labor would still be on track to be returned with a large majority.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 9:33 pm
Howvere, this white nativist movement has polarised support in the bush and burbs to older, less educated and white-anglo voters.
——————————————————–
LOL….. less educated, white…
Another one that does not get it. Are you still wondering why the voice failed?
Hey Jolly, you ain’t too Jolly are you fella!
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
where it is pretty clear that most folk who are baying the loudest have next to NFI about what the changes actually mean (anyone copped a load of “Hughsey’s” social media recently, FFS
__________________
Funny isn’t, as a young presenter on The Glass House he seemed as left as they come.
20 years later and with a few million earnt on the radio grind he’s a different man.
Look s like Jolly is triggered by the certifiable fact that ON voters have less qualifications on average.
I get why people think the system sucks and voting elsewhere – I’m another one caught up in the insanity but One Nation would just make things worse.
The teals forming a party makes sense in this environment they can call it “Community Voices of Australia” or something. If people think existing structures are failing they need a constructive and well organised alternative.
“ Another one that does not get it. Are you still wondering why the voice failed?”
You’re a fuckwit with piss poor comprehension skills. Gloating about a headline, but incapable of grasping details.
An ugly mut of a human thingy. I speculate you are actually Senator James McGrath. I can’t wait to see your fat turd of a face on some election panel on election night in 2028 when the Pauline bubble bursts and finally. FINALLY! The penny drops.
And FYI, I called the referendum result about a year before it happened. I told Linda Burney at the time why it was doomed.
I’ll leave this here fyi before I go to sleep
From Google AI
“Only about 5.5% to 7% of Australian taxpayers have incomes high enough to fall into the top marginal tax bracket. The top marginal tax rate is 45% (which climbs to 47% when combined with the 2% Medicare levy), and it only applies to the portion of your income earned above $190,000”
Hardly a priority to cut the top marginal tax rate imo
I’m pleased that Hughesy avoids my social media feeds. I do notice that my (otherwise lovely)cooker brother-in-law in the central west of NSW is sharing lots of Angus Taylor’s Albo ‘arrogant prick’ memes, so that’s obviously resonating in ON friendly climes.
Inflation is going to be around for a while, even if DT amazes and comes to an agreement with Iran, the secondary effects of fuel price rises haven’t really hit yet, and in the absence of the SoH reopening Exxon is claiming the shit will really hit the fan in a few weeks as stockpiles run out
I wonder if William makes allowance in BT to account for only Boomers participation in polling?
Hard Being Green, you are often heading to bed or off to work. IMO feel free to stay away longer.
Jacabinsays:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 9:03 pm
Jolly Jumbuck, showing why the left is in decline.
————————————————
When are you suggesting this decline began?
As the May 2025 election seemed pretty good for them.
“ Hardly a priority to cut the top marginal tax rate imo”
You simply don’t understand how politics works in this country. No wonder you find it so hard to… being green. You have learnt nothing from 2019 it seems.
Always funny when the facts and logic fuck your feelings crowd get angry whenever you point out the facts and logic about the uneducated rural racists that make up one nations support base.
Miskalsays:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 9:09 pm
Appreciate your commentary here too Miskal!
Thanks nadia!
=============================================
Actually I think Nadia was thanking you for the Muslim demographic stuff. I doubt she cares if you try and teach economic theory 101 to the completely stupid or not. Though I appreciate you willingness to take up the same lost cause as I did.
Andrew_Earlwood at 9.33pm
Albo/Labor is on the nose 3 weeks after the budget because of an industrial strength scare and loathing campaign being run by the United Anti-Labor Party in circumstances where it is pretty clear that most folk who are baying the loudest have next to NFI about what the changes actually mean (anyone copped a load of “Hughsey’s” social media recently, FFS) and the changes wont actually take effect until a period starting next year and ending up after the election (this is particularly dumb politics by Jim to leave the government hanging in the breeze on this issue for the next two years) and – worse – are not accompanyied by a big fat tax bribe to make more palatable. Maybe that tax bribe is coming next year, but IMO the savings measures should have been linked with each other as a historic ‘grand bargain’ by the introduction of a “middle class” 25% tax bracket (from $45,001 to whatever cap the budget can sustain), plus a cutting of the top marginal tax rate (which would take most of the sting out of the abolition of the 50% CGT deduction by itself).
——————
I agree with this part particularly. Slightly peculiar politics from Labor here (though at least for parts of the reforms, I suspect it will be so complicated to legislate it will take some time to develop and workshop the text, such that it couldn’t be ready to go right away).
A risk for Labor in leaving future tax cuts until late this term or possibly even after the next election is that it will invite a campaign that writes itself – a very late term tax cut is easy to write off as a bribe, and one that depends on them being voted back in highlights that they’ve reneged on their pre-election tax policies in both terms – “you couldn’t take them at their word that they wouldn’t change Stage 3, you couldn’t take them at their word that they wouldn’t go after CGT/negative gearing/trusts, why would you trust them now when they say they’ll give you a tax cut if you vote for them again?”
Entropy says:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 10:03 pm
Miskalsays:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 9:09 pm
Appreciate your commentary here too Miskal!
Thanks nadia!
=============================================
Actually I think Nadia was thanking you for the Muslim demographic stuff. I doubt she cares if you try and teach economic theory 101 to the completely stupid or not. Though I appreciate you willingness to take up the same lost cause as I did.
__________
Not nice.
Entropy
Name calling doesn’t make you look smart, Miskal is right if supply increases, my point that you clearly couldn’t understand was if supply fell, by the government’s own admission, they don’t expect property prices to fall.
davidwhsays:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 9:50 pm
I wonder if William makes allowance in BT to account for only Boomers participation in polling
==============================================
I wonder if the poster that made the claim that people on PB post that. Could actually point at one case of a poster on here saying that?
“A risk for Labor in leaving future tax cuts until late this term or possibly even after the next election is that it will invite a campaign that writes itself – a very late term tax cut is easy to write off as a bribe, and one that depends on them being voted back in highlights that they’ve reneged on their pre-election tax policies in both terms – “you couldn’t take them at their word that they wouldn’t change Stage 3, you couldn’t take them at their word that they wouldn’t go after CGT/negative gearing/trusts, why would you trust them now when they say they’ll give you a tax cut if you vote for them again?”
______
Potentially real facepalm stuff isnt it?
I know the high priests in the cult of the Reserve Bank are just itching to jack up rates again and a hint of big tax cuts may well provoke them, but given that the CGT and Neg gearing changes largely wont take effect until 2027-28, I’m not sure there was any real downside in telegraphing tax cut changes to take effect over the same period in this year’s budget.
Andrew_Earlwood at 9.56pm
“ Hardly a priority to cut the top marginal tax rate imo”
You simply don’t understand how politics works in this country. No wonder you find it so hard to… being green. You have learnt nothing from 2019 it seems.
——————-
Do you genuinely think Labor cares about prioritising tax cuts for high income earners though? If they did, they’d not have fiddled with Stage 3, and wouldn’t have gone as hard as they have this budget on higher earners or would have accompanied it with some tax cuts in tandem. It might start to pinch when bracket creep inevitably leads more to be caught by the top bracket, but there’s no indication it’s a priority yet.
Entropy, I assumed nadias comment was broad, and not related to any specific comment from tonight.
Another one that does not get it. Are you still wondering why the voice failed?
———-
Again?
No-one is confused as to why The Voice failed.
Referenda are designed to fail and even if they have bi-partisan support they still usually fail.
The referendum was doomed the moment Dutton decided to oppose it.
Then he aggravated the situation by preferencing ON second that released that genie, aka the cheetah that ate the LNP’s face.
So, … any LNP supporter still thinking The Voice defeat was “a win” for their side is deluded or has already made the leap of shame to One Nation.
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 10:09 pm
Entropy
Name calling doesn’t make you look smart,
===========================================
I called you stupid, it is hardly the worst insult on here. Particularly when you were the one that started using it when you called me stupid earlier. Grow up, if you can’t take what you give in return you shouldn’t be posting it in the first place.
Entropysays:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 7:36 pm
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 7:30 pm
Entropy
If you think the housing market is going in the right direction, can’t help stupid. It’s a buyer’s market with many buyers sitting on the fence hoping prices crash.
Andrew_Earlwood at 10.09pm
Potentially real facepalm stuff isnt it?
I know the high priests in the cult of the Reserve Bank are just itching to jack up rates again and a hint of big tax cuts may well provoke them, but given that the CGT and Neg gearing changes largely wont take effect until 2027-28, I’m not sure there was any real downside in telegraphing tax cut changes to take effect over the same period in this year’s budget.
———————
Yes, I agree. Rolling it all up together would have allowed it to be sold as a package that’s good for everyone, rather than allowing the feeling to fester that lots will be taxed more heavily without any accompanying goodies.
Part of me does wonder if the tax increases and tax cuts not going hand in hand is to allow more flexibility to recalibrate the NG/CGT/trust changes depending on the level of backlash and possibly how the housing market progresses in the short-medium term. Time will tell if there’s anything to that, I suppose.
Entropy
That was payback for you calling me stupid the other day.
Entropy please refer to Jolly Jumbuck post at 9.01pm. I’m not in the habit of making things up.
Labor is just barely in front of One Nation right now.
davidwhsays:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 10:18 pm
Entropy says:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 10:09 pm
davidwhsays:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 9:50 pm
I wonder if William makes allowance in BT to account for only Boomers participation in polling
==============================================
I wonder if the poster that made the claim that people on PB post that. Could actually point at one case of a poster on here saying that?
Entropy please refer to Jolly Jumbuck post at 9.01pm. I’m not in the habit of making things up.
========================================
Sorry, my post is about Jumbuck’s claim. I’m suggesting Jumbuk made up the claim that anyone on PB actually had posted that.
Entropy understand. All good. 🙂
There are numerous generalizations that get thrown around here at times but agree that isn’t one.
Landlord of the Yearsays:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 10:18 pm
Entropy
That was payback for you calling me stupid the other day.
=============================================
I really don’t have a problem with people calling me stupid. It is part of the cut and thrust of debate on here. It is hardly worst abuse you’ll see. I more have problems with people making out calling someone stupid is a major faux pas on here, considering all the rest that gets flung around on here without comment.
On a side note it remains insane to me that ON is out-polling Labor amongst Millennial’s… although I suspect a decent chunk of this is the aforementioned “burn it to the ground” factor
davidwhsays:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 10:30 pm
Entropy understand. All good.
There are numerous generalizations that get thrown around here at times but agree that isn’t one.
======================================
My feeling if anyone tried to post that claim on a polling site. Their head would be eaten off pretty quickly. Which would make it memorable and I certainly don’t remember any such instance.
Bonnie Doon says:
Sunday, May 31, 2026 at 10:17 pm
Rolling it all up together would have allowed it to be sold as a package that’s good for everyone, rather than allowing the feeling to fester that lots will be taxed more heavily without any accompanying goodies.
__________________________________
I don’t think this would have been wise. There is no guarantee that a “complete tax package” would be any more popular: at best it would be the media comparing some low-ball figure around the tax cut against the maximum tax increase from the wealth side (and all becoming muddled); at worst, the cut would be completely ignored and we’d have the same doom cycle anyway.
And besides, just consider the reactions of the main voices advocating “change” so far. The Teals? Have completely folded now that their constituents are being taxed more – so much for “tax reform”, completely embarrassing watching Spender and Pocock walk back on their reformist rhetoric and demanding carvouts. The Greens? Upon seeing a housing tax plan arguably harsher then theirs, and a financial wealth tax plan indisputably harsher than theirs, immediately came out with their “budget for the 1 % nonsense.
Why muddle an income tax announcement when the vested interests have no interests giving it playtime? There is two more budgets to announce the fun and popular stuff (fuck me, 13 months from the last election and we are already talking about election budgets…).
Lets take a parallel policy that should be getting air time – Gas reservation, a policy that the gas industry is catatonic over, and a plan that even the internet’s biggest ON sprukers love:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/05/omg-albo-is-going-to-crash-gas-prices/
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/05/aussie-boganaires-spew-on-gas-reservation/
You’d think an impending crash in the cost of industrial gas supply might be a bit of a news item, but apparently not.
“. The Greens? Upon seeing a housing tax plan arguably harsher then theirs, and a financial wealth tax plan indisputably harsher than theirs, immediately came out with their “budget for the 1 % nonsense.”
Demonstrably wrong… as already discussed verbatim
The usual suspects reckon Albanese is toast.
In the summer of 24-25 they reckoned he was toast (the polls said so) and a few months later he led Labor to a smashing victory.
The LOTO lost his seat.
I reckon it’s a bit early to be writing him off when his opponents seem to be Taylor and Hanson (for now).
Neither is likely to survive scrutiny in the long term. Taylor is long odds to even keep his job and Hanson … she’s Hanson
Pretty much the way i see it A_E
“Neither is likely to survive scrutiny in the long term. Taylor is long odds to even keep his job and Hanson … she’s Hanson”
Hanson has been in the game since 1994 – thats longer then an entire cohort of voters have existed, and longer then 2 cohorts have (majority) been able to vote.
Its copium to imagine that Hanson is going to be targeted by a (friendly) media and lose all momentum…
Rossmcg it’s weird people acting like we’re an election year like is the polling bad I mean no because honestly I’m surprised the honeymoon lasted this long again like even then labour still leading I mean I do think they need to work on the messaging but think people need to calm down
Bizzcan at 10:38 pm
Perhaps there’s something to what you’ve said – the commentary around the NG/CGT changes has certainly drowned out the fact that there actually is a tax cut in the budget, as piddly as it is. I do think something more substantial on the goodie side this time around would’ve allowed an easier sell though, and for the reasons I mentioned earlier, I think a late term or post-election more substantial tax cut carries its own risk.
Miskal remember when people said the same thing about Peter like that’s the problem Hanson can’t even handle minor criticism also the people already thinking we’re going to end up like the United States is really funny people seem to know how our governments are on
It would be nice for an actual logical reason for One Nation to excel in the polls like this instead of what’s been given so far, which is essentially “Butter up your butts, Labor-Green Lefties, we’re going to rape you.” and that’s essentially the message.
If any tax changes were to take place its better now with 2 years to go to an election. It will prove what people are really like in this country in the end.
Kirsdarke I would also like someone who likes one nation to explain how they’re going to get 76 seats because if all the reporting says it’s true that they’re very popular regionally and how they can keep the momentum up because this won’t last i remember people hyping up that the liberals were going to win last election look how that turned out
QR, name one “modern” country that isnt currently facing the resurgence of the far right.
This isnt just a US pattern, its a post globalisation/end of history pattern, and if you dont think it can happen here then your sorely mistaken.
Hell, its barely been a decade and a half since Abbott toppled Labor which, a few years before, felt they would be in government for at least a generation.
And lets not forget how many people (many here as well) laughed at the idea of Scotty from marketting as PM
Kirsdarke – the best comment I’ve seen on PB ever!! –
“Butter up your butts, Labor-Green Lefties, we’re going to rape you.”
It’s all very silly!
Kirsdarke at 10.47pm
Between cost of living issues and what seems to be growing concerns in some segments of the community around immigration, and then a reformist but presently unpopular budget on top, I would think it’s pretty easy to pinpoint why ON are starting to get some traction. Writing them off as illogical cranks or deviants is not wise, in my opinion. I’m sure that the Government isn’t doing so.