The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down two points to 27.5%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation up one to 25.5% and the Greens up two to 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences is in from 54-46 to 53-47. A Labor-versus-One Nation result has the former leading 53.5-46.5 – I believe we may be getting this in future instead of the Labor-versus-Coalition result based on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from 1613.
Also just out is the monthly Essential Research poll, which has Labor down a point to 29%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation (who have either improved or held steady in every monthly result from this series since March last year) up three to 28% and the Greens steady on 11%, with the undecided component down a point to 4%. The pollster’s respondent-allocated 2PP+ measure, which has been weaker for Labor than other pollster’s two-party measures, has Labor in front for the first time since December, the 48-47 result (the balance being undecided) comparing with 49-47 to the Coalition last month. However, personal ratings for Anthony Albanese are his worst yet from this series, his approval down four to 37% and disapproval up three to 54%, and the regular national mood result has a two-point drop in “right direction” to 28% and a four-point increase in “wrong track” to 58%, the worst result since Labor came to power.
Twenty-five per cent expressed approval of the budget with 39% disapproving and 24% neutral, which is at the better end of comparable results in post-budget polling. As in other such polling, responses to its most contentious measures was more positive: winding back negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount on property was supported by 33% and opposed by 27%, with 26% neutral; and tax changes on shares and investments were supported by 32% and opposed by 29%, with 26% neutral. However, only 26% supported the changes on trusts, with 38% opposed. Twenty-eight per cent thought the housing system would be more fair for young people, 30% thought less fair and 22% felt it would make no difference.
The immigration policies announced by Angus Taylor in his budget reply speech found strong support, with 58% in favour of capping immigration to the number of new house builds and 14% opposing, and 57% in favour of limiting welfare to Australian citizens, with 19% opposed. The report in The Guardian relates that the sample size was 1027; it was conducted, I assume, from last Wednesday to this Monday. The full report should be on the pollster’s website later today.
Morning bludgers. Perhaps of interest to Socrates and those interetsed in defence matters:
From the previous thread:
“ Andrew_Earlwood says:
Wednesday, May 27, 2026 at 5:23 am
This video illustrates perfectly two basic propositions that illustrate ADF procurement failures perfectly:
https://youtu.be/shxsvvMiceg?is=paSVUUc05eowAZj_
1. It was both stupid and wrong for the Turnbull government to announce the premature retirement of the Tiger Attack/Reconnoissance helicopter in 2016 in favour of buying new Apache Helicopters; and
2. It is doubly stupid and wrong of the current government to persist with these decisions after the lessons of the Ukraine conflict from 2022.
Everybody – even the Americans – are rapidly pivoting away from manned attack helicopters towards an array of drones and autonomous fixed wing and rotary aerial vehicles.
However, the bigger load out and more potent ordinance of current manned attack helicopters does leave a small window of usefulness at least for the next 5, maybe 10 years max. In other words, enough relevance to persist with a current fleet of attack helicopters (ie. the Tigers for the Australian Army or the Vipers and Apaches in service with the US) for their current life cycle, but no more.
Stupidly, the ADF have now committed the Australian Army to a multibillion dollar purchase of a new fleet of 40 year old tech, that is nearly obsolete now, and will be 100% redundant within the first decade of what should be a 30+ year life span!”
Anthony Albanese has ordered the biggest shake-up of the employment services system in 30 years and authorised development of new “fair and proportionate” mutual obligation rules for working-age welfare recipients, amid concerns about rising unemployment across the country.
Employment and Workplace Relations Minister Amanda Rishworth on Wednesday will launch a $312m reform package promising to overhaul an employment services system that costs taxpayers $2bn a year and end the final vestiges of the tougher Coalition-era welfare rules for working-age Australians.
Labor’s four-point reform strategy includes plans for three new “tailored”’ employment service streams and changes to mutual obligation requirements, which currently include set tasks and activities that must be completed to receive working-age income support payments.
https://archive.is/run4N
Labor’s key budget measures on housing and tax have failed to win over Australians, with only a third or fewer voters backing negative gearing and CGT changes – and many holding significant doubts the changes will make things easier for first home buyers, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.
Demonstrating the challenge Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers are facing in selling and explaining the budget, just 25% of the more than 1,000 Australians polled said they backed the budget, while 56% believed the Labor government had fallen short of expectations in the year since the May 2025 election. At the same time, the prime minister’s net approval slumped seven points in a month while One Nation’s primary vote sat just one point behind Labor’s.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/27/guardian-essential-poll-labors-housing-and-tax-changes-fail-to-win-over-voters-as-support-for-one-nation-swells
World News & Politics Patrol:
Trump Summons Entire Cabinet as Iran Deal Crumbles in Front of Him: https://newrepublic.com/post/210887/donald-trump-summons-entire-cabinet-iran-deal
Missing Republican Representative Still Had Time to Trade Stocks: https://newrepublic.com/post/210885/missing-republican-representative-kean-jr-trade-stocks
Democrats are already preparing Trump investigations if they retake the House: https://www.ms.now/news/democrats-preparing-trump-investigations-retake-house
Trump, 79, Transfixed by White House Pillar for Six Minutes: https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-79-transfixed-by-white-house-pillar-for-six-minutes/
US Senator pepper-sprayed by ICE outside immigration detention center: ‘It’s just burning’: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/andy-kim-ice-immigration-pepper-spray-delaney-hall-b2983455.html
Trump’s ‘Joke’ About Dead Soldiers Taints Memorial Day Speech At Arlington: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-not-too-many-donalds-memorial-day-arlington-national-cemeteryy_n_6a15638ae4b062ca52d4e78c/amp
As US stock market hits new highs, 2 of 3 Americans are cutting back on spending, survey shows: https://apnews.com/article/confidence-inflation-economy-4f681cecfa63fe251f5bb12bb4b949c6
Ireland to ban goods from Israeli settlements in West Bank by July: https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/ireland-ban-goods-israeli-settlements-110752611.html
EU to favour European satellite services to prevent Musk’s Starlink expansion: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/05/26/eu-to-favour-european-satellite-services-to-prevent-musks-starlink-expansion
Netherlands blocks U.S. takeover of DigiD operator Solvinity over security concerns: https://nltimes.nl/2026/05/26/netherlands-blocks-us-takeover-digid-operator-solvinity-security-concerns
Iran condemns US strikes as ‘gross violation’ of ceasefire: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g44yl7q70o
US and Israel ‘actively working’ to strip Jordan of Al-Aqsa custodianship: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/palestine-al-aqsa-us-israel-strip-jordan-custodianship-sources-say
‘If Iran gets a bomb it will be Bibi’s’: Trump’s deal outline sparks alarm in Israel: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/25/iran-bomb-trump-deal-sparks-alarm-israel-netanyahu
Suspected Ebola case triggers health alert in Bengaluru: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/karnataka/suspected-ebola-case-triggers-health-alert-in-bengaluru/article71026413.ece
Met Office confirms record for hottest May day broken AGAIN as temperatures hit 35C: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-met-office-confirms-record-37207262
Court of Appeal to decide if teenage rapists’ sentences were unduly lenient: https://news.sky.com/story/sentences-of-teenage-rapists-who-avoided-jail-referred-to-court-of-appeal-13548062
Almost 1,000 migrants cross Channel over bank holiday: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy422k3z83vo
I hope we’re getting genuine reforms to job providers and mutual obligations rather than just tweaks. Bring back the CES imo
SL Chris Bowen claimed we’ve hit 50% renewables, premature? Good to hear if true although there’s a long way to go
Some interesting news from the US overnight with the federal court in Alabama pushing back on the gerrymandering as discriminating against black voters and South Carolina saying it’s too late to make changes there with primaries due to start today I think
Bombers going back to James Hird, a bit like the Liberals electing Abbott as party president. Ridiculous
I don’t agree with much of what Tony Shepherd says, but he is on the money here with a hopefully pending shakeup for Test cricket. Being pushed by India, so will probably get up.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/pink-ball-in-play-to-stop-bad-light-delays-in-tests-this-summer-20260526-p600tb.html
A BIG day in the BIG State of Texas with primaries for Republican Senate nominee, and a slew of Congress seats which have been upended by the gerrymandering.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/26/us/texas-primary-runoff-elections
The most expensive primary race ever…
And where does the money go?
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/26/us/texas-primary-runoff-elections
HBG
He was referring to the last quarter of 2025 – he should be more specific with such claims.
It eased back to 46.5% in Q1 2026 and 44.2% in April.
A country deeply concerned with Ukraine’s fate which is frequently ignored – because it is under the thumb of the sort of puppet Putin wanted – and still wants – installed in Kyiv:
“Ukraine’s victory is crucial for future of Belarus, says Belarusian opposition leader in exile Tsikhanouskaya”
http://pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/05/26/8036529/
Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s imperialist military aggression is on behalf of many, many more people than just their own. The citizens of Belarus, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Finland know this very well.
The CES was disassembled by the Howard government in 1998.
Much has changed since that time.
The private mob that provide job services have entrenched themselves within this space and are highly profitable businesses.
Centrelink does the paperwork and provides the information for job providers.
To return to the old system will be highly contentious for a multitude of reasons.
Labor has enabled enormous progress to be made regarding facilitating renewables as the source of electricity generation.
Labor and Bowen should be acknowledged for the progress.
The Greens shouldn’t be so shy in acknowledging the progress regarding renewables.
The politics within the USA can be accepted as a “basket case” democracy.
Australia’s relationship with the USA needs to be tempered to acknowledge the US political “dog’s breakfast.
It shows four things.
The first is that it is entirely rational not to initiate a war or to join somebody else’s war.
The second is that some leaders are not rational and will STILL initiate wars.
The third is that it is well worthwhile to have a credible defence force.
The fourth is that the Greens are completely delulu when it comes to rational thinking about defence and national security.
newy
Lukashenko does an uncanny impression of a Russian stooge but so far he has managed to keep his people out of this war, more or less.
She’ll find out! https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2026/05/26/dublin-councillor-to-emigrate-to-australia-as-she-cant-afford-to-live-here-any-more/
Workforce participation is at near record levels. Unemployment is persistently at low levels.
Modern comms enables near instant information flows about job availability and worker availability.
Reduce the personal, social, business, taxpayer and economic costs of the normal job/worker churn in that space makes a lot of sense.
We are not sure what the reforms will be yet but I can see plenty of scope.
Good point, IMO.
Thanks SL, I thought it sounded a bit premature. Let’s get 50% for 12 months straight before we claim it imo
Goll, Labor has made good progress on renewables although there is a lot of work still to be done. Unfortunately that’s offset in part by the approval of new coal and gas
I agree it would be hard to unscramble the egg with employment providers but it’s worth trying imo. The system is failing too many people. Although the pain would be eased if Jobseeker was increased to a livable level
Sad to hear the Liberals are trying to fire up the gender culture wars
Political Distemper is a highly contagious disease effecting voters in extremely well off countries like Australia.
It is spread by feral privately owned media organizations and spreads uncontrollably to infected government media outlets.
It can have the effect of severely limiting the intellectual capacity of those effected.
It has caused mayhem in some countries like the USA, almost total confusion in countries like the UK and fear in countries like Russia.
In Australia the most common indication of it is mindless malcontent and the rise of organizations that claim to possess all the elixirs of life and more.
Vale US democracy.
Morning all. Andrew Esrlwood I agree with your points on helicopters this morning and have said the same myself.
Military attack helicopters only survive now over battlefields against lightly armed opponents who lack good anti aircraft weapons. I.e. when it doesn’t matter. They also have a very high operating cost.
I pointed this out a few years ago when Japan dumped their Apache fleet. The only military helicopters that make sense now are transport and ASW helicopters.
This is where reform of the ADF is hard. No more Apaches means no more pilot or maintenance jobs. So the army aviation people fight any reform attempt.
As usual, Trump is in perfect health – he tells us so himself. CNN also has a piece on this charade.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/26/politics/trump-physical-walter-reed-mortality
The employment providers respond to price signals and to what gets counted. IMO one of the systemic problems is that the ’employment providers’ are being tasked with two quite divergent targets.
The first is to manage frictional unemployment. With the internet that should be able to look after itself entirely.
The second target is about enabling people to participate effectively in the labor market who, for one reason or another, are unattractive to employers. That is not about providing employment. That is about social work. It is hugely vastly more complex than the frictional unemployment services. It is also inherently subject to a significant risk of failure. The question for the taxpayer is how much ROI is it reasonable to expect in that space.
A-E and Soc
+1 on the choppers.
The Apache money should be being spent on setting up a complete national military/industrial drone /missile ecology.
Dumb and dumber abounds.
Boerwar
Alternately the Apache money could have been used to increase Redback production back up to intended levels. That would be good for the Geelong economy and allow the army to finally pension off its sixty year old M113s.
The people in the Apache units could be offered switches to transport or Navy ASW roles. Their skills are still valuable.
It is fascinating, as a frog is fascinated by an approaching snake, to watch the difference in time management by the Iranian and US negotiators.
The Iranians consistently signal about taking their time.
The US side are absolutely chaotic. Dates, times, deadlines and public appraisals of progress and prospects are thrown out, put up, reported and abandoned on an almost daily basis.
There is, nevertheless, a clear theme: Trump wants out soonest.
As noted previously controlling time is a fundamental part of successful negotiations.
Oh. And that approaching snake has many skins: empty global reserve tanks by sometime in July/September, supply chain disruptions involving gas, aluminium, ammonium and helium, inflation, and hunger.
Apaches might be needed in the event of a cooker rebellion
On the subject of culinary matters, I notice that a couple of Desi’s erstwhile mates might be in a spot of boiling water.
Back to politics. Wiliam’s lead in article highlights that the polls are still bad for the budget. The only comfort is that they also remain bad for the Liberals and I still don’t believe One Nation can win all the seats claimed once the distribution of their vote is taken into account.
The budget direction is correct economically and will have major benefits over the next two years, despite the lack of short term sweeteners to buy popularity. The government has to keep explaining this and get the budget passed. The opinion polls reflect a lot of disinformation because most voters do not suffer any loss from the budget, only a small proportion of wealthy investors.
IMO Albo has two choices.
Either redouble efforts to sell the budget and tough it out. (Also calling out the vested interest among the media critics).
Or find some money to offer a sweetener. One obvious choice is to continue the fuel cost support.
An obvious place the money could come from would be the diesel rebate for miners. End it. BHP should face some financial penalty for their behavior too.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/may/27/rein-in-fossil-fuel-tax-concessions-labor-mp-says-bhp-revelations-jerome-laxale
Good to see there will be a Senate inquiry into the slashing of the NDIS although 3 days is no where near long enough
Youth unemployment at over 11% highlights why it’s so important to get employment services right
and
To raise the rate rather than give WATO to high income earners
Off to work, enjoy your day
On the politics of anger: one for Victoria.
https://citynews.com.au/2026/mad-as-hell-and-im-not-going-to-take-this-any-more/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Omar Comin’, Wednesday, May 27, 2026 at 7:52 am:
Incorrect. Russia has utilised, and continues to utilise, Belarusian territory to attack Ukraine. This requires the cooperation of Belarusian personnel. So, the people of Belarus are involved in the invasion of Ukraine, at Lukashenko’s behest. (Hence the correctness of sanctions being imposed upon Belarus.)
This review illustrates why I like photobooks. Good ones are way, way better than mere collections of images.
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2026/may/26/messy-kinky-sex-clubs-dissent-queer-dancefloors
Boerwar, Wednesday, May 27, 2026 at 7:57 am:
————-
BW – see my answer to Omar Comin’ just above.
Tony shows his evangelical christian leanings.. always was a Wally
Tony Blair tells Starmer and rivals: abandon net zero and move closer to Trump
In highly unusual intervention, ex-PM says his party’s ‘almost infinite capacity for self-delusion’ makes it likely to lose next election
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/26/tony-blair-labour-abandon-net-zero-support-donald-trump
The problem is right wing christians are so indoctrinated by the rubbish they read they are of the opinion Dog wouldn’t let man burn the planet unless he wanted them to burn the planet
HBG
The Greens demand that the NDIS grows at a compound rate of 10% per annum.
Clever Greens policies abound.
Sceptic says:
Wednesday, May 27, 2026 at 8:36 am
Blair’s lack of personal irony: an…
‘almost infinite capacity for self-delusion’
Tony Shepard..
Not a very smart idea..
Yes, the red cricket ball behaves differently from the pink cricket ball under the same conditions. The pink ball tends to swing more under lights due to its extra lacquer, while spinners may find it harder to grip compared to the red ball.
Indiatimes Wikipedia
Differences Between Red and Pink Cricket Balls
Swing Characteristics
Red Cricket Ball:
Generally swings less under lights.
Designed for daytime use, primarily in Test matches.
Pink Cricket Ball:
Tends to swing more under artificial lights.
Extra lacquer enhances its visibility and aerodynamic properties.
Grip and Spin
Red Cricket Ball:
Offers better grip for spinners due to its textured surface.
Pink Cricket Ball:
Spinners may find it harder to grip because of its smoother, lacquered surface.
Tony has a track record of not very smart ideas
Sceptic
This from the PM who thought invading Iraq was a good idea 😐
The older he gets, the more Tony Blair sounds like he should have been a Tory.
Hird has signalled that he is up for another stint at coaching Essendon. Third time lucky?
Bombing abounds.
Soc
One thing the Brits do extremely well is museums.
True facts newy and he’s provided more than just airspace in support of Russia. But still, I felt my observation was worth mentioning.
Re the media stories about AI slop propaganda as the new weapon in the right wing arsenal, surely it’s not beyond the wit of some others to produce images of Albo with FHB victorious at auctions, Monopoly-Man attired caricatures of investors looking dejected to the side? It might be cringe but that might give it a bit of virality anyway
The chilling effect of recent legislation
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/05/the-chilling-effect-of-recent-legislation/
“Freedom of speech and assembly is being curbed by legislation designed to address hate speech. What does this mean for the boycott, divestment and sanctions (BDS) movement?
:::
It is clear that Australia, as with all States members of the UN, have an obligation to support boycotting, divestment and sanctions of the State of Israel until it ends the illegal occupation of Palestine. And yet our government might proscribe the group as a hate group.
Will we see a challenge to the Commonwealth Act? My concern is that we won’t, at least not immediately, if for no other reason than that groups such as BDS do not have the funds to do so. In the meantime the legislation is having its ill-desired effect.”
HH
Thanks for the morning roundup. The effort is appreciated even if the news is depressing.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g44yl7q70o
Iran is correct. This is a blatant breaking of the ceasefire by USA. Iranian and UAE negotiators were actually in Doha trying to reach a deal when the strikes happened.
This is also bad news for the Australian and Asian economies. High oil prices are locked in for months now.
“Data centres leaving energy transition worse off – Greenpeace report
Claims data centres are adding renewables to the grid and aiding decarbonisation have been challenged by a prominent environment group that’s calling for a moratorium on development.
In a comprehensive report, Greenpeace has interrogated the industry’s environmental credentials, accusing it of failing to cover its own emissions with new solar and wind and “heaping massive new load” onto the grid.
It’s also sharply critical of data centre proposals that include onsite gas generation, including a NSW Cloud Carrier project involving a 700-megawatt power plant, and questions the “critical infrastructure” status given “AI is being used for abuse, war and other human rights violations”.
Australia has become the second biggest destination for data centre investments worldwide as tech companies rush to meet demand for AI tools.”
The Point Live 8.10AEST
Not the same as Pre 2025 federal election with the voice referendum
But the budget is becoming a situation where the lib/nats propaganda media units and polling companies, misreading it , federal lib/nats are making no ground as with one nation stuck on a particular primary vote.
Compared to historic political movements, the shift to ON from the Coalition is still on the small end of such matters. You could say this has been about a 15% swing from the Coalition to ON.
An imperfect table but one for comparison.
“How much would a gambling ad ban be worth?
Back in February, when they were before Senate Estimates, it came to light that Department of Communications had modelled just how much a ban on gambling ads would cost TV, radio, online, and outdoor platforms. But they wouldn’t release the figures, citing the conditions of contracted they’d signed to get the data.
This is publicly-funded research, conducted by a government department, used to inform the development of public policy — so surely the public has a right to know what the department found? We filed a freedom of information (FOI) request to see if we could get it.
Two months later we got a response and…no, they won’t give us the information either. While the Department confirmed the existence of 38 relevant documents, they denied access for several reasons, including an exemption granted under the Act for documents that have gone to cabinet. Which means the government must have been aware of these numbers as they made the decision earlier this month to not implement the findings of the parliamentary inquiry into online gambling (aka The Murphy Review).
Although the Albanese Government has announced some restrictions on advertising, they have stopped well short of the full ban recommended by the Murphy Review.
So we can’t say how much gambling ads are worth to the networks. But, if broadcast media is dependent on money from gambling ads for survival, there is a simple fix. A 2% levy on gambling companies would be enough to replace all the money the industry spends on advertising across TV, radio and online. And it would mean we wouldn’t have to put up with hearing about the odds when we’re just trying to watch TV.”
The Point Live 8.05 AEST
I am not so sure about this. CENTO’s justification was that Iran was trying to lay more mines in the SoH. If so, it was Iran that kick started a resumption of kinetics.
What may be of relevance is that Iran did not immediately escalate in response to the US attack.
It is not just the US that is a bad actor in this war so it is not axiomatically true that every bad thing that happens was initiated by the US.
We just do not know.
What is of note is that western MSM has almost universally interpreted this incident as US bad.
Mostly Interested
The collapse of the Liberal Party is still young. I am optimistic it will collapse further. It has collapsed from a 40% PV in the past decade 🙂