A RedBridge Group/Accent Research MRP poll for the Financial Review, based on 6015 responses from April 29 to May 14, has a median seat prediction of 76 seats for Labor, 53 for One Nation, 12 for the Coalition (ten for Liberal, two for Country Liberal – which is to say they are forecast to gain the two Northern Territory seats for Labor), eight for independents, one for Bob Katter and none for the Greens. The first preferences numbers this is based on are Labor 31%, One Nation 28%, Coalition 21% and Greens 11% – a more current field work period would presumably have produced a worse result for Labor. For those new to the multi-level regression with post-stratification concept, the Financial Review explains it “analyses how traits such as age, gender and religion estimate opinions nationwide … then takes those insights and combines them with census data to reconstruct a picture of the area”.
Sixty-two seats out of 150 are rated a better than even chance of changing hands based on the poll’s numbers, which have One Nation gaining all 16 Coalition-held seats in Queensland, all nine of the Nationals’ other seats, 12 seats from the non-Queensland Liberals (mostly regional, but also including urban fringe seats of Lindsay, La Trobe, Casey and Canning) and 16 seats from Labor (nearly all their regional seats, several on metropolitan fringes and two in northern Brisbane). Labor are projected to gain Ryan, Fowler and Mayo from the cross-bench, and Liberal to gain three seats in Melbourne from Labor and Bradfield from teal independent Nicolette Boele.
There is also a conventional federal poll from DemosAU that matches the pollster’s previous result from last month as Labor’s worst since the election, with Labor steady on 26%, the Coalition steady on 23%, the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation up two to 28% – the first primary vote lead recorded by the latter in a regular polling series. The pollster provides a seat projection based on the results that has Labor within a range of 65 to 74, falling short of a majority even at the top end, with One Nation from 47 to 58, the Coalition from 16 to 28, the Greens from one to five and others from two to six.
Respondents were also asked how they would vote if Pauline Hanson retired, it being noted that she is 71, with results of Labor 28%, Coalition 27%, One Nation 21% and Greens 14%. A three-way preferred prime minister result has Anthony Albanese down a point to 34%, Pauline Hanson up three to 27% and Angus Taylor up one to 23%. Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings are up one on positive to 27%, up one on negative to 47%, with 26% neutral; Angus Taylor is up three on positive to 28%, and down one negative to 27%, with neutral at 47%; and Pauline Hanson is up five to 39%, and down three to 36%, with 25% neutral.
The budget was rated generally bad by 43% and generally good by 23%, with 27% agreeing and 36% disagreeing it would make Australia fairer; 28% agreeing and 39% disagreeing it would help long-term housing affordability; 44% agreeing and 17% disagreeing the tax changes would hurt the economy; and 53% agreeing and 16% disagreeing they would make life harder for the average Australian. Nonetheless, 34% approved of the negative gearing measures with 29% disapproving, 28% approved and 29% disapproved of the capital gains tax discount changes, and 27% approved and 34% disapproved of the maximum 30% tax rate on income from trusts. The poll was conducted last Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1502. Extensive breakdowns are available in the full report.
MABWMsays:
Tuesday, May 26, 2026 at 9:42 pm
I had and exchange with a One Nationist who told me that only descendants of the first fleet were true Australians.
_______________________
1790 for me.
subgeometersays:
Tuesday, May 26, 2026 at 10:08 pm
Togs is Qld specific? – I don’t think so. More likely its part of common inheritance of the RL ex-colonies.
======================================
It has nothing to do with being a “kiss me hug me” colony. All AFL states use the term too.
Google AI Slop
“Early 18th Century: “Togeman” was shortened to “tog” and pluralized to “togs,” evolving into general British slang for all types of clothing or “garments”.
Early 20th Century (Australia & New Zealand): The general meaning of clothing faded in Britain, but in Australia and New Zealand, the term was adopted exclusively to describe swimwear.
1918: The first written evidence of “togs” used in a swimming context appeared in a military magazine for Australian and New Zealand armed forces.”
nath at 7.23 pm
“Anyway I don’t mind bogan accents.”
Even bogans who were stupid enough to vote for ProMo Morrison should not face a woeful maze if they need welfare support. Labor finally sees it:
‘The Albanese government has flagged a major overhaul of Australia’s employment system, with minister Amanda Rishworth on Wednesday expected to outline plans to ease Centrelink’s much-maligned mutual obligations regime.
Rishworth is expected to tell the National Press Club that mutual obligation requirements were not helping Australians find work in a system that was “ill-equipped” and wasting the time of people who use welfare.
In a scathing assessment, Rishworth will say unemployed people are “languishing” with insufficient help. She will claim the current system incentivises job providers to place applicants in jobs which may be unsuitable. Mutual obligations are also simply taking up too much time for providers and applicants, and could be replaced with a fairer system, she will say.’
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/may/26/labor-to-announce-easing-of-jobseeker-mutual-obligations-requirements-in-major-overhaul-of-employment-system
Dr Doolittle
Richworth has history of overpromising underdelivering.
Dandy:
I’m still not entirely sure what an eshay even is, but I’m pretty certain I was never one.
This was the zeitgeist of my youth: https://youtu.be/-tIloZ_EEvE?si=aBE-xBHBMStuBO1d
Taylormadesays:
Tuesday, May 26, 2026 at 10:23 pm
MABWMsays:
Tuesday, May 26, 2026 at 9:42 pm
I had and exchange with a One Nationist who told me that only descendants of the first fleet were true Australians.
_______________________
1790 for me.
===================================
Would have been earlier but took the long route to avoid African gangs.
This a dam good question.
Will China work it out before destroying it’s empire in Taiwan.
Boerwar will not like this video, he is arguing for the Greens defense policy.
The world’s most powerful armies can’t win wars now, so what happens next?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N3t4lMlUag
subgeometer says:
Tuesday, May 26, 2026 at 10:17 pm
“Never trust a person who wears socks with sandals.”
Even if they have a beard? Like a geologist back in the day
________
My father is very trustworthy. Although he has moved to runners with velcro these days. A true fashionista 🙂
Dr Doolittlesays:
Even bogans who were stupid enough to vote for ProMo Morrison should not face a woeful maze if they need welfare support. Labor finally sees it:
‘The Albanese government has flagged a major overhaul of Australia’s employment system, with minister Amanda Rishworth on Wednesday expected to outline plans to ease Centrelink’s much-maligned mutual obligations regime.
______________________________
Hmm. I have my suspicions about this impending ‘reform’. I suspect it will be a re-branding exercise, maybe easing off on a bit of the punitive aspects but not really doing anything of value. Time will tell.
I did appreciate these absurdities:
Guardian Australia has reported numerous examples of the mutual obligations system being unfair or cruel to users, or forcing people to complete menial tasks. These included people having Centrelink payments suspended while in hospital recovering from brain surgery or recovering from psychosis, and job training courses described as “condescending” where participants had to rate friends and family, describe the role God played role in their life, and discuss pictures of Brad Pitt in a chicken suit.
Unless they get rid of it entirely it’ll be nothing more than a rebrand of the existing mess of privatised scammers abusing the illegal powers the coalition gave them to suspended people and force them into completely useless privatised courses that funnel taxpayer money into their irrelevant courses.
This is what you voted for:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tb_s1ZGTMaM&list=RDBouWH-BlCx4&index=2
frednk says:
Tuesday, May 26, 2026 at 10:41 pm
The world’s most powerful armies can’t win wars now, so what happens next?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N3t4lMlUag
_____________________________________
Ukraine spent every day since 2014 for a war with Russia.
Iran has spent every day since 1979 for a war with the USA.
Taiwan has spent every day since 1949 for a war with mainland China.
I would say this video is probably the most offensive to Ukrainians, Iranians, and Taiwanese.
Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
Tuesday, May 26, 2026 at 10:58 pm
Unless they get rid of it entirely it’ll be nothing more than a rebrand of the existing mess of privatised scammers abusing the illegal powers the coalition gave them to suspended people and force them into completely useless privatised courses that funnel taxpayer money into their irrelevant courses.
____________
Rishworth has already said they will keep the private model and these ‘new streams’ she is talking about already exist.
This is rebranding, for Rishworth. Hill’s report was too scathing to do nothing so a smoke and mirrors job is necessary.
Total Fugazi.
Bizzcan
As it is pointing out Iran and Ukraine are winning, not sure how it is offensive to them, but each to their own interpretation.
frednk says:
Tuesday, May 26, 2026 at 11:03 pm
Bizzcan
As it is pointing out Iran and Ukraine are winning, not sure how it is offensive to them, but each to their own interpretation.
_______________________________________
By implying they were sitting around twiddling their thumbs just waiting to be invaded, rather than the reality of significant military investment that the video seems to decry. It treats those three nations as essentially having no agency in their own defence.
I found his final statement referencing bullying by the senate committee embarrassingly ironic given the subject of questioning included robodebt.
The bloke has had smoke blown up his rear end for so long his massive ego has actually caused his own reputational downfall. He can stew on that for the rest of his days.
Everyone here should watch it. It’s available on YouTube on the Australian parliament channel.
An interesting breakdown on the history, demographics and political culture of the Makerfield seat that has become ground zero for the Labour v Reform battle in UK politics – the seat where Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham will seek to return to Westminster at the by-election next month. In short, it looks like classic Red Wall Reform territory – a very white area of ex-coal mining towns and commuter belt (it’s about halfway between Manchester and Liverpool) that voted Leave in 2016, and in which Reform attracted over 50% of the vote in the recent Council elections – and yet unlike similar northern seats, it has returned exclusively Labour MPs since 1906, including in the “get Brexit done” election of 2019.
https://swingometer.substack.com/p/the-makerfield-by-election-high-risk
frednk says:
Tuesday, May 26, 2026 at 10:41 pm
The world’s most powerful armies can’t win wars now, so what happens next?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N3t4lMlUag
_______________________
There is some selective argument here. Countries have been successfully invaded recently including Chechnya, Georgia, Gaza and the West Bank.
Defence has gotten easier but bigger armies can still win. So choice of how much to spend and on what still matters.
Socrates says:
Tuesday, May 26, 2026 at 11:18 pm
frednk says:
Tuesday, May 26, 2026 at 10:41 pm
The world’s most powerful armies can’t win wars now, so what happens next?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N3t4lMlUag
_______________________
There is some selective argument here. Countries have been successfully invaded recently including Chechnya, Georgia, Gaza and the West Bank.
Gaza has been flattened, but has Israel won the war?
Socrates
I agree with your conclusion.
The winner now seems to be the party that can blow shit up on the smallest budget. AUKUS definitely doesn’t fit the bill. Its a billion item that can be destroyed by a $20,000 dollar sea drone.
Rishworth’s overhaul is basically just forcing jobseekers to use A.I. slop until it does their heads in, at which point they move straight from Stream 1 to Stream 3. The real question is how many job cuts there will be at Services Australia as staff get replaced by A.I.?
Survival is winning for the invaded party, just as it was in the days of anti-colonial insurgencies/resistances eg Vietnam. 3 million Vietnamese died and 50000 Americans but (North) Vietnam won
“We reach a certain age where we realize we know less about life then we did when we were seventeen. When I was seventeen, I remember… I believed in life. I trusted life. I believed there were answers to questions. I had… hope.”
Entropy at 9.24 touched on the argument about whether we carry our stuff in a port or a case.
Many years ago we had a banana bender on the payroll who used the word port instead of case like we did.
He only ever won one argument. That was when he pointed out that railway stations had porters, not casers.
For those younger than 70, when we were young people travelled to the big smoke by train, and at the city railway station they had Porters who helped you with your luggage.
Robin Brooks
@robin_j_brooks
It’ll obviously take time for shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to normalize, but don’t fall into the trap of thinking this means oil prices will stay high. Markets are forward-looking, so they’ll price normalization long before it happens…
https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-blockade-of-the-straits-of-hormuz
https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2058903854880596069
Nothing is hardly in the Strait. Its as empty as I have ever seen. https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:57.5/centery:26.4/zoom:9
New thread.
This video illustrates perfectly two basic propositions that illustrate ADF procurement failures perfectly:
https://youtu.be/shxsvvMiceg?is=paSVUUc05eowAZj_
1. It was both stupid and wrong for the Turnbull government to announce the premature retirement of the Tiger Attack/Reconnoissance helicopter in 2016 in favour of buying new Apache Helicopters; and
2. It is doubly stupid and wrong of the current government to persist with these decisions after the lessons of the Ukraine conflict from 2022.
Everybody – even the Americans – are rapidly pivoting away from manned attack helicopters towards an array of drones and autonomous fixed wing and rotary aerial vehicles.
However, the bigger load out and more potent ordinance of current manned attack helicopters does leave a small window of usefulness at least for the next 5, maybe 10 years max. In other words, enough relevance to persist with a current fleet (ie. the Tigers for the Australian Army or the Vipers and Apaches in service with the US for their current life cycle, but no more).
Stupidly, the ADF have now committed the Australian Army to a multibillion dollar purchase of a new fleet of 40 year old tech, that is nearly obsolete now, and will be 100% redundant within the first decade of what should be a 30+ year life span.
Tony shows his evangelical christian leanings.. always was a Wally
Tony Blair tells Starmer and rivals: abandon net zero and move closer to Trump
In highly unusual intervention, ex-PM says his party’s ‘almost infinite capacity for self-delusion’ makes it likely to lose next election
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/26/tony-blair-labour-abandon-net-zero-support-donald-trump
Asha @ #1170 Tuesday, May 26th, 2026 – 9:36 pm
port is a short form of portmanteau, a French word meaning, literally, cloak carrier.
togs are cossies, swimming costumes
Griff @ #1208 Tuesday, May 26th, 2026 – 10:43 pm
Me too, with beard and Citroen.
Man bites dog? This dog shoots back!
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/26/dog-shotgun-nebraska-convenience-store
Seeing Clive Palmer ads on the newspaper this early in the election cycle is crazy considering that technically he announced his retirement from politics in 2025.
Talk about dishonesty.
Togs isn’t Queensland-specific. We said “togs” at primary school in country Victoria in the 1980s also.
We did not say “port” though.
So it will be x numbers of hours of the usual puerile demented fantasies and spiteful petty attacks I expect.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5902574-trump-rally-america-250/