The Sydney Morning Herald reports the regular bi-monthly Resolve Strategic result on New South Wales state voting intention (available in the print edition, but not yet online that I can see) has Labor up three points to 32%, the Coalition up one to 26%, One Nation down one to 22% and the Greens steady on 10%. Chris Minns holds a 38-18 lead over Kellie Sloane on preferred premier, little changed from the previous result of 38-17. The poll was compiled from New South Wales responses out of the pollster’s last two national surveys, with an overall sample of 1000.
We’re now well inside a year out from the next election, and preselection news is starting to accumulate:
• Lachlan Leeming of The Australian reports that Mark Buttigieg is likely to lose his position on Labor’s Legislative Council ticket to Unions NSW secretary Mark Morey, having lost favour with the Right after the Electrical Trades Union detached itself from the faction. Buttigieg was the last of the seven members elected from the Labor ticket in 2019. Another Right faction MLC, Greg Donnelly, is “mooted by some colleagues as likely to retire”, but his position is in the domain of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. Left faction MLC Peter Primrose is also expected to retire, his likely successor being Asren Pugh, “a former councillor at Byron Shire who is set to benefit from the Left’s rules that one of their candidates be from regional NSW”. The report further says the male dominance of the ticket could put pressure on male MPs in the lower house.
• The Nationals upper house preselection in March returned the party’s three incumbents, Sarah Mitchell, Nichole Overall and Wes Fang, to the second, fifth and eighth positions mandated to the party on the joint Coalition ticket. However, the eighth position seems a highly dubious prospect in the current electoral environment, such that the result raises doubts about the future of Fang, who has a strong social media following and support base on the right. The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports Fang may have been the victim of a lack of tactical adroitness by Young Nationals members whose enthusiasm for unsuccessful newcomer Angus Webber helped Overall take the fifth position at Fang’s expense. It further reports “strong rumours” that Fang is considering defecting to One Nation, noting he is “old friends” with Barnaby Joyce and has “removed Nationals branding from some of his social media posts”. Former Nationals leader and Bathurst MP Paul Toole has also confirmed being approached by One Nation.
• In a review article on One Nation in the Sydney Morning Herald in late March, “political strategists” identified a threat to the Nationals in seven of their 11 seats — Upper Hunter, Tamworth, Dubbo, Bathurst, Oxley, Coffs Harbour and Clarence — together with Liberal-held Goulburn. Conservative vote-splitting — a particularly live issue under New South Wales’ system of optional preferential voting — “may even lead to Labor picking up more metro seats”. The most vulnerable Labor-held seats are said to be Cessnock, Camden and Penrith. Lachlan Leeming of The Australian reports One Nation’s upper house ticket is likely to be led by Stuart Bonds, who has twice achieved strong results in the federal seat for Hunter.
• Michael McGowan of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Sue Higginson, who filled David Shoebridge’s vacancy when he was elected to the Senate in 2022, will lead the Greens’ upper house ticket at the next election. Higginson won 51% from a party membership vote held last month, ahead of 24% for the other incumbent seeking re-election, Abigail Boyd, who retains the second position from which she was elected in 2019.
• Mark Hodges, first-term Liberal member for Castle Hill, lost a preselection vote in late February to The Hills Shire mayor Peter Gangemi. Linda Silmalis of the Sunday Telegraph reports Hodges was eliminated in the first round, with Gangemi prevailing in the second over fellow factional conservative Thomas Ryan, senior manager of polling firm Freshwater Strategy. A conservative factional source links Hodges’ defeat to the weakening of the centre right faction and its figurehead, federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke.
• Former deputy police commissioner Mick Willing has been preselected as the Liberal candidate for Camden, which Sally Quinnell gained for Labor in 2023 (and which, as noted, is a potential target for One Nation). Wendy Lindsay will seek a comeback in East Hills, which she held from 2019 until Kylie Wilkinson gained it for Labor in 2023. Lindsay has served Revesby ward on Canterbury-Bankstown City Council since 2024.
• Linda Silmalis of the Sunday Telegraph reports Phil Longley, whose father Jim Longley held the seat from 1986 to 1996, has “apparently nominated” for Liberal preselection in Pittwater. Longley is director of government relations at the Workers Insurance Association of New South Wales and a former policy adviser to Jason Falinski, the then federal member for Mackellar. His sister, Claire Longley, ran for preselection in the seat before the last election but was defeated by Rory Amon, an outcome that was criticised by then deputy Liberal leader Matt Kean. Independent Jacqui Scruby fell narrowly short of defeating Amon at the election, then gained the seat at the by-election held in October 2024 after Amon was charged with child sex offences.
• Tamara Smith, who has held the Byron Bay area seat of Ballina for the Greens since 2015, has announced she will not contest the next election.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of New South Wales state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
The ramifications of the “rum rebellion” are never far away in the colony with no particular political party and no individual politician immune to the fact that the harbour is full of a variety boats suitable for confining, exiling or housing any politician deemed to be in need of reminding as to which way the wind blows.
What a bloke-ocracy the Liberal party is! Are there more liberal candidates named Mark than women?
I might need to rethink my strategy of not numbering a box next to Labor, I have a feeling One Nation could do better on the Central Coast than expected, sadly.
See how things play out, I’d definitely be holding my nose if I ended up voting for the very ordinary Minns government
Sad to hear Tamara is pulling the pin, hopefully her replacement can hold the seat
hBG, with all due respect, preferential voting is not just about voting for a party. The benefit is you get to tactically vote AGAINST people. No matter how ordinary the ALP is, it is always preferential to voting for blue or orange Tories, who would dig up their grandmother for profit.
(I’m an active Greens member).
It would be better if we didn’t have it here Mabwm but we have optional preferential voting in NSW
To get the most out of your vote it’s best to number all boxes.
Will Minns government remain minority government based on above Resolve poll numbers? It is likely that can be the case.
There is zero chance of NSW Labor getting a preference from me. I’m very much looking forward to leaving them blank along with the Coalition and One Nation.
The entitled “born to rule” War Parties of the conservative right do not deserve any support from the progressive left. Labor has taken my preference for granted for the last time. Minns can GAGF.
I doubt ON will win Cessnock. For sure they will pick up big swings in Cessnock and Kurri, but the ALP margin is huge, plus the Cameron Park end of the electorate, where all the population growth is, I think will be much less friendly to ON. There will also be relatively few Lib. preferences to distribute.
I think Newcastle is a bigger risk for the ALP, if a strong independent candidate emerges. At the recent Lord Mayor election, an independent won outright with 51%, Greens were second on 17%, ALP 16% and Libs just 9% from memory. Tim Crakanthorp is damaged goods, if he runs again for the ALP, after his undeclared conflict of interest due to his family’s very substantial property holdings in the Broadmeadow redevelopment zone came to light.
Thank you for this instructive insight into how and why particular persons come to be our ‘representatives’. In many instances they don’t, and this particular so with Labor. Their MPs are often beholden to a union
The division in the Liberals, and the very existence of the Teals, is in part at least down to the influence of the businesses in the renewable subsidies industry.
All this should be studied by political scientists.
The post also makes it apparent that ON needs to come to a strategy to avoid conservative vote splitting.
Another minority Labor Government is my tip for the March 2026 election result. The big unknown of course is One Nation, mostly likely more of a problem for the Coalition than Labor. And don’t forget also optional preferential voting in NSW state elections – you only have to put a no 1 on the ballot paper.
Kellie Sloan is a far better communicator than Mark Speakman, but she still has little presence in the Sydney media(other than 2GB giving her a lot of airtime). Chris Minns still commands that space!
“There is zero chance of NSW Labor getting a preference from me.”
Pauline Hanson and One Nation thank you for your service & help for their cause.
I wonder if One Nation will go with a just vote 1 strategy?
OPV and the rise of ON have killed whatever minuscule chance the Coalition had of winning in 2027.
One slight correction, Paul Toole is the member for Bathurst, not Dubbo.
2027 State election election could be extinction event for Nats unless ON explodes in the meantime.
Could I just mention that Minns is an embarassment?
Not too sure why there is such an anti-Minns rhetoric on this site from some. I’ll add that most of the rhetoric here predates his comments about income tax. From memory, someone early this year posted mockingly that he was “the best Lib leader of NSW Labor”.
Regardless, I think this polling is pretty good for him, especially with OPV.
I understand OPV generally benefits the party leading on the primary, which atm is Labor.
He look’s to be on track to majority gov’t in 2027.
Thanks – corrected.
Looks like a Dingbat pile on. Thanks Nads.
Not at all Dingbat. You’re entitled to your opinion, and to an extent your opinion is shared by a lot of the Green’s oriented posters here, as well as some of the Labor posters (more so on the open threads over the past few months).
I’m more surprised at the “anti Minns rhetoric” which I read here, which seems to crop up every so often.
I understand the protest laws in Dec upset some people, but there was flexibility or discretion applied by the NSW Police Commissioner, notably…
* The Iran protest mid Jan was waived through,
* Oz/Invasion Day rallies were allowed, &
* The Mardi Gras went ahead (although that has little to do with Middle Eastern affairs).
Chris Minns has also rightly called out the GST carve-up, which has seen some $3.7b taken from his state (the inland rail project) and diverted to Victoria (The S.R.L.)
Doesn’t seem fair to me, given NSW is larger both in population and geographical size.
To me he is just sticking up for his state.
It just surprises me that there is a cohort on this site who dislike Minns, for reasons I can’t work out.
Minns is definitely disliked by a lot of those who would call themselves progressives, it’s not just about the protest laws, I think also that some resent the Premier for being conservative on some issues. And, he’s disliked because of the perception that he spends too much time with the editor of the Daily Telegraph or with Ben Fordham on 2GB.
Obviously the only issue for some Labor diehards is their right to march up and down Sydney streets, yelling out pro Palestinian slogans.
“Not too sure why there is such an anti-Minns rhetoric on this site from some.”
The right hates that he’s effective and setting himself up for a 15 year dynasty vs the incompetent LNP and racist One Nation.
The far-left hates that he’s effective and setting himself up for a 15 year dynasty vs the irrelevant Greens.
They both hate that Minns doesn’t want Sydney to turn into Melbourne with rent a crowd far right & far left white saviours showing up in the CBD every weekend for whatever flavour of the month whinge they want to use as an excuse to harass bystanders, attack cops and block traffic.
Anti-democratic and unconstitutional protest laws are just part of the mix for me
Although it doesn’t impact me his views of work from home are out-dated
Fits with the struggle public servants had to get pay rises
We have the lowest rate of renewables in the country
Opening new coal and gas
He has dropped the ball on cashless gaming i.e. pokies
The lack of drug law reform, we need pill testing at the very least
The refusal to even consider cutting the price of public transport despite other states doing it
The list goes on….
I sort of agree with Ghost here.
Minns comes across to me as a cautious type, similar to Cook and Malinauskas.
He’s obviously running a NSW First style campaign. I don’t blame him. Any Premier worth his/her salt would be doing this.
A poster upthread at 11.39 am yesterday, pretty much stated he’d exhaust his vote after he’s voted Greens. Ok. So your vote get’s exhausted at 3 or 4CP stage, opening the door for another party to creep up. Is that what you really want?
The Farrer and Nepean by-elections suggested a higher preferencing arrangement between the right wing parties, in comparison to the S.A. election.
For “some on the left” to believe Minns is somehow “bad”, is quite frankly bizarre.
I honestly think that he did what he needed to do after Bondi, to calm things down in Sydney over Summer…. And what he did, quite frankly, worked. Yes, a couple of people were upset that their civil liberties may have been hindered. Well, that’s just tough. These sort of people need to think about bigger picture issues, rather than what they personally want.
Barring any major issue over the next 10 months, I’m sure Prem Minns will be re-elected next year with a majority.
Not living in NSW so take what I say with a grain of salt but Minns government doesn’t seem to be doing all that much? I am not local but politically interested and read a lot and can’t really remember any particular position he has taken apart from protest laws.
I remember Perrottet being way more prominent and ‘active’.
Don’t get me wrong he is a smooth operator, looks good, optics are good and I am confident he is the best option still but doesn’t seem like there is much substance.
Hard Being Green says:
Thursday, May 21, 2026 at 5:19 pm
Anti-democratic and unconstitutional protest laws are just part of the mix for me
Although it doesn’t impact me his views of work from home are out-dated
Fits with the struggle public servants had to get pay rises
We have the lowest rate of renewables in the country
Opening new coal and gas……..
======================
Perhaps H.B.G.
WFH is probably here to stay. I would def support women who can WFH and get the job done, rather than frocking up and wasting time going to the workplace to do the same thing.
As for coal & gas. The Labor Premier in S.A. wants to start “fracking” in the SE corner of his state.
Tonight, the W.A. Premier has suggested he’d allow “gas fracking” in the Kimberley’s.
Link: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/premier-warns-wa-could-be-forced-to-frack-in-the-kimberley-20260521-p5zzei
We haven’t seen much polling from W.A. recently, but it certainly didn’t derail S.A. Labor in their recent election.
Edit: With regard to the NSW coal mines. They were actually approved by the Feds in late 2024, by Minister Plibersek. I’m guessing you’re referring to Boggabri, Narrabri & the Cavel Ridge Horse Pit mines.
“Not living in NSW so take what I say with a grain of salt but Minns government doesn’t seem to be doing all that much”
Most important thing he’s done is introduce the Building Commission NSW. Unlike LNP versions where all they care about is union busting, the BC NSW cares about ensuring the quality of building work, doing this via site visits & inspections to protect against unlicensed work, electrical standard failures and so on. This will be strengthen by a new Building Approvals Act. They also lifted stamp duty concessions.
Other significant efforts are cap tolls, energy concessions, 15000 conversions of temp teachers to permanent, starting work on the new Rouse Hill Hospital and starting a new state run renewables investment body.
Test
18/100, see WB after class.
Removing the ban on fracking wasn’t mentioned before the election in SA Nadia
Minns forced NSW public servants back to the office
The one that really pissed me off is that he set up a pilot of cashless gaming guaranteed not to work. NSW has 1 poker machine for every 88 people. Billions being lost each year and he is effectively turning a blind eye
One I didn’t mention but highlights why he is a terrible premier imo
“The Ruling: The crisis erupted in late 2025 when the NSW Court of Appeal ruled that the century-old Parliamentary Evidence Act 1901 was invalid. The laws previously allowed parliament to issue certificates forcing the Supreme Court to issue arrest warrants.
The Precedent: The challenge was successfully brought by James Cullen, Premier Chris Minns’s chief of staff, who argued it unconstitutionally co-opted the judiciary. Legislative Council president Benjamin Franklin ultimately decided not to appeal the ruling.
The Impact on Accountability
Political Staffers: The court victory prevented committee attempts to grill senior Minns government staffers regarding controversies like the “Dural caravan plot” and alleged donation laws evasion.
Corporate Snubs: Major tech giants and powerful private entities have subsequently snubbed parliamentary inquiries, including high-profile committee investigations into the controversial data centre industry.
The Current Impasse
The Minns minority government and the crossbench/opposition have been locked in a legislative stalemate. While the upper house passed a bill in March to fix the invalid provisions, it has stalled in the lower house due to a lack of government support. This leaves NSW parliamentary committees largely toothless in their ability to compel testimony. “
Fair enough HBG,
I understood Prem Malinauskas had previously expressed support for a state based expansion of the gas industry.
Here: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Fmining-energy%2Fsouth-australia-premier-peter-malinauskas-tackles-energy-taboos%2Fnews-story%2F2a6a90441366ac6f5f64e592903118e6&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPA-Segment-1-NOSCORE
To quote the article from late 2024…
“In a wake-up call for Labor politicians everywhere, the SA Premier said it was time to stare down “ideologues and NIMBYs” in charting an unashamedly gas-fuelled future.”
However, I accept it wasn’t directly put to voters before the last election (or kept somehwat quiet).
So yes, you are quite correct with that you say.
You can add enabling unlawful police brutality against people protesting genocide to Minns’ long list of transgressions…
Court strikes down Minns Labor Government’s unconstitutional anti-protest laws which caused police violence at Town Hall Sydney
The Court of Appeal has struck down Labor Premier Chris Minns’ post-Bondi anti-protest laws which enabled the NSW Police to extend protest restrictions, the Public Assembly Restriction Declarations (PARD). The challenge was brought by the Blak Caucus and Palestine Action Group.
A PARD was in place during the 9 February protest at Sydney Town Hall against Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s visit to NSW where scenes of police violence went viral on social media. Community leaders are calling for the Police to be removed from involvement with any prosecutions related to the protest, and for the Director of Public Prosecutions to withdraw all current and planned prosecutions.
Greens MP, Solicitor and spokesperson for Justice Sue Higginson said:
“Premier Chris Minns has once again been pulled into line by the courts for inflicting unconstitutional laws on the people of NSW. These unconstitutional laws are the reason that Police felt empowered to commit violence against innocent people at Town Hall,
“This decision will upend the prosecutions of protestors who have been charged as a result of attending the protest. The Police must now extract themselves from this mess, they had no authority to issue the directions under these invalid laws, and any charges resulting from police activity at Town Hall need to be withdrawn,
…
“Instead of progressing evidence-based reform to combat hate and antisemitism in the aftermath of the Bondi Massacre, the Premier chose to foist unrelated and absurdly anti-democratic anti-protest laws on the parliament knowing they would be declared invalid,
“This authoritarian approach to our democracy by Premier Minns has been repeated too often, at a certain point Labor needs to stop trying to subvert our constitution. If this trend of passing bad laws continues, with the community challenging their constitutionality later, NSW is at serious threat of descending to a very dark place,” Ms Higginson said.
https://greens.org.au/nsw/news/media-release/court-strikes-down-minns-labor-governments-unconstitutional-anti-protest
The number of Liberal voters who tell me they like Minns is astounding.
They’re largely a do nothing government whose infrastructure ‘agenda’ is nothing more than finishing the projects the previous government started.
They’re also a house of cards with virtually no talent to speak of underneath Minns.
Once he goes – most likely middle of next term – it will become a proper contest.