Two further additions to the post-election budget polling pile (perhaps shortly to be joined by Essential Research). The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov finds Labor down two points to 28%, the Coalition up two to 23%, One Nation up one to 25% and the Greens down one to 13%. Labor has two-party leads of 52-48 against the Coalition and 53-47 against One Nation, which are in from 54-46 and 57-43 last time (the latter seemingly being an aberration, the previous result having been 54-46).
Anthony Albanese’s leads as preferred prime minister are in from 45-36 to 41-38 against Angus Taylor and from 54-35 to 50-38 against Pauline Hanson. Approval and disapproval ratings are not yet available, but we are told Anthony Albanese has gone from a net minus 14 to minus 19 (UPDATE: Albanese is down two on approval to 37% and up two on disapproval to 56%; Angus Taylor is down two to 36% and steady on 42%). The poll finds 9% expecting the budget will leave them better off and 44% worse off, with 47% for about the same. Thirty-one per cent agreed the negative gearing and capital gains tax changes would help first homebuyers, with 38% disagreeing and 31% unsure. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Monday, from a sample of around 1500 (UPDATE: 1504, to be precise). I will have further detail later today.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down a point to 29.5%, the Coalition down one to 24%, One Nation up two-and-a-half to 24.5% and the Greens steady on 11.5%. Labor leads 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences, out from 53.5-46.5, and 52.5-47.5 on previous election preference flows, in from 53.5-46.5. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1668.
The reign of King Donald I will be long remembered in the field of self-dealing…
WSJ
Network 10’s free-to-air channels will be pulled from televisions in SA’s Limestone Coast, Riverland and NSW’s Riverina. WIN Television provides television services to 29 regional markets across Australia. It signs major deals with free-to-air networks in order to broadcast them within those regions.
However, TV Blackbox reports that thousands of Australian residents are set to no longer be able to access Network 10 with those in Riverland and Mount Gambier regions of South Australia, along with the Griffith market in New South Wales affected.
https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/network-10-set-to-go-off-air-for-thousands-of-australians-after-win-deal-ends-next-month/news-story/fdadfb9bf2b72cbffa227095415d889c
It looks to me like there’s still a lot of “never One Nation” voters out there, trying to interpret these allocated preferences.
Listening to Kos Samaras on the latest Curtin’s Call, he has a Redbridge poll coming out this week in the AFR, which will cement current trends.
He hints at the results for the Liberal Party as ‘the Enola Gay’
https://youtu.be/MXTZFF_h6HM?si=Mc2bsN2yIaQdpzNe
You posted the old SkyNewsYouGov Pulse poll. The new SkyNews YouGov Pulse poll has Labor on 28% (down 2%), One Nation on 25% (up 1%), Coalition on 23% (up 2%), Greens on 13% (down 1%), Independents 5% (no change) and Others 6% (no change). Why did you do that?
Some Cartoons
Rowe
Katauskas
Christopher Downes The Mercury
Rod Emmerson NZ Herald
The rise of One Nation as a “political thingie” has certainly shown itself to be well entrenched with secure footings to house the rather large number of disaffected voters looking for emergency “political housing” in a time of great change.
The aging red headed diva, together with her recently acquired 1950’s consort have collected an interesting ensemble to provide a variety of themes and sub plots for both the always greedy media and the voters in dire need of entertainment.
Where this all “ends up”, the unknown, is much of the appeal I suspect.
(Caveat Emptor!)
World News & Politics Patrol:
NATO’s newest member Sweden announces $4 billion defense investment: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/nato-sweden-saab-billion-defense-investment-rheinmetall.html
Iran demands Big Tech pay fees for undersea Internet cables in Strait of Hormuz: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/05/iran-demands-big-tech-pay-fees-for-undersea-internet-cables-in-strait-of-hormuz/
WHO concerned about ‘scale and speed’ of Ebola outbreak, with 131 now dead: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/who-congo-ebola-numbers-rise-9.7203737
NATO capable of “razing Russian bases to the ground” in Kaliningrad – Lithuanian FM: https://english.nv.ua/nation/lithuanian-fm-says-nato-can-destroy-russian-military-bases-in-kaliningrad-if-necessary-50609058.html
Xi Jinping Told Donald Trump That Vladimir Putin Might Regret The Ukraine Invasion: https://www.news18.com/amp/world/xi-jinping-told-donald-trump-that-vladimir-putin-might-regret-the-ukraine-invasion-report-ws-l-10099097.html
Russians Pull Money From Bank Deposits for First Time Since 2022 Mobilization Panic: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/05/18/russians-pull-money-from-bank-deposits-for-first-time-since-2022-mobilization-panic-a92784
Russians covertly trained by China return to fight in Ukraine: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russians-covertly-trained-by-china-return-fight-ukraine-sources-say-2026-05-19/
Southampton kicked out of Championship playoff final and docked four points for spying: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2026/may/19/southampton-kicked-out-of-championship-playoff-final-docked-four-points-for-spying
SIXTH newly elected Green councillor quits leaving Londoners with £120,000 by-elections bill: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/green-party-councillors-quit-election-costs-b1282285.html
30-year US Treasury yield hits highest level in 19 years: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/19/business/30-year-treasury-yield-bond-record
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) is requesting an “urgent” classified briefing from the acting director of the country’s top cyber agency after a recent leak of internal agency credentials was exposed: https://www.axios.com/2026/05/19/congress-cisa-briefing-credentials-leak
Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets: https://www.npr.org/2026/05/19/nx-s1-5821265/minnesota-ban-prediction-markets
Trump Given Sweeping Tax Amnesty in Secret Deal: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-given-sweeping-tax-amnesty-in-secret-deal/
Trump’s Own Handpicked Lawyer Quits Treasury in Disgust at Massive $1.8B Grift: https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-treasury-lawyer-quits-in-disgust-over-donald-trumps-massive-18b-theft/?user_emailA=6a8868547d95e872900a2f460cac80f6&user_emailB=fcffbc4fb3a146e271cd0bd1c5fcdcdaab6f7e022d331505e7cdb0e3c52d2e6f&lctg=69d541bb9d870f20a3067267
Trump Calls High Gas Prices ‘Peanuts’ as Economic Approval Rating Plunges: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-joe-biden-gas-prices-11968147
Hegseth campaigns for congressional race, breaking with Pentagon neutrality: https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/05/19/hegseth-campaigns-for-congressional-race-breaking-with-pentagon-neutrality/
Auto industry braces for motor oil shortage: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/19/business/motor-oil-shortage-prices-iran
Federal agents can’t make arrests in N.Y. immigration courts, judge rules: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/federal-agents-cant-make-arrests-ny-immigration-courts-judge-rules-rcna345860
NAACP urges Black athletes, fans to boycott Southern US universities over voting rights: https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/naacp-urges-black-athletes-fans-boycott-southern-us-universities-over-voting-2026-05-19/
This far out of from the federal election ,the current 2pp for federal lib/nats is overestimated by 7+% by opinion polling.
2025 federal election
The federal lib/nat combined primary vote 31.82% = 44.78% 2pp
even with the high one nation primary , with federal lib/nats combined primary vote around 24% , 2pp would not be near 45-47%, more likely struggling to 40%
Hi All, first time posting here. William has posted incorrect results from the SkyNewsPulse YouGov poll released last night.
The correct results are Labor on 28% (down 2%), One Nation 25% (up 1%), Coalition 23% (up 2%), Greens 13% (down 1%), Independents 5% (same) and Others 6% (same).
Holdenhillbilly @ 6:32a
I wonder if they’ll notice
Is the SMH astroturfing again?
https://apple.news/AHKREEzERT6uiiMvabxH0XA
Forty under 40: Millennial entrepreneurs unite against Albanese’s tax overhaul
The only thing growing faster than the artificial-intelligence industry may be Americans’ negative feelings about it—as former Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt saw on Friday. Delivering a commencement address at the University of Arizona, Schmidt told students the “technological transformation” wrought by artificial intelligence will be “larger, faster and more consequential than what came before.” Like some other graduation speakers mentioning AI, Schmidt was met with a chorus of boos.
In one poll after another in recent weeks, respondents have overwhelmingly voiced concerns about AI, a challenge to claims by industry executives that their technology would gain popularity by improving people’s lives. Consumers resent energy-price jumps exacerbated by the spread of data centers. Workers fear widespread job losses. Parents worry about AI undermining education and harming children’s mental health. In recent months, the wave of anger has brought protests, swayed election results and spurred isolated acts of violence.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-american-rebellion-against-ai-is-gaining-steam-94b72529
I hope the government gets it’s messaging sorted out re the tax changes and doesn’t cave in to the scare campaign
I’m not saying it’s easy to explain but Andrew Charlton struggled a bit on RN Breakfast this morning, didn’t help that he got Sally’s name wrong
Newspoll still the outlier with Labor on 31 but pretty much all the moves were with the various MOE’s
Scott starting to sound a little like Iraq’s spokesman during the war lol
HBG, not sure if you were on this site prior to the last election, but a few people sledged Scott as you just did.
History proved Scott was on the money regarding Labor’s thumping win.
Gunners!!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlW4mzzmoes
Sprocket_ @6.40(ish)
Nick and Cos both confirm that the LNP just doesn’t like modern Australia.
Says it all for me!
I also think that their comments about alienating a major sector of the (potential) voting public is seismic.
https://youtu.be/MXTZFF_h6HM
How is this degree and extent of corruption ever going to be undone?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/19/blanche-faces-capitol-hill-grilling-18b-anti-weaponization-fund/
“Consumers resent energy-price jumps exacerbated by the spread of data centers.”
Graphics cards, RAM, and storage costs have also blown out due to AI data centres. Bad news for PC builders/buyers and gamers.
Lynchpin I’m well aware Scott nailed the last election, and I got it very wrong, you can only rely on past glories for so long though
Fess, listened to HCR yesterday and some good points regarding Fraud and how the Trump admin will use projection to cast the Dems as fraudulent while themselves being fraudulent on an atomic scale.
https://youtu.be/Uastx4a6zGU?si=y0KpEu3SssW7boTT
I see that the obsequious slimy little toad Blanche has given El Presidente what he’s been after for years.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5885763-irs-trump-tax-returns-settlement-agreement/
Alternate headline: “Forty get rich quick merchants complain about having to pay their fair share of tax”
Re Hard Being Green @7:31.
An anti-disinformation campaign should have been a critical part of the rollout of the tax changes. It appears that Labor has neglected this crucial planning once again.
There was a new battery charge record set in SA yesterday:
https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.sa1.battery_charging.power.interval.high?datetime=2026-05-19T14_15_00&offset=10_00&focus=1779164100000
This was a 25% increase on the previous record set on Jan 31.
HBG/Jaeger
I’ll be predicting over 100 in 2028 but I have a feeling I won’t be getting clear air like last time. It’s one thing to get it wrong one time but quite another to blow it when you have literally dozens of entries.
Spare a thought for the poor ill treated white South Africans as they have become “refugees” and have moved to the Whiter than White States of ‘merica.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/19/us-government-increase-white-south-africa-refugees
Worth a look if you’re near the Museum of Contemporary Art, Sydney.
‘I can use it, I can abuse it’: Tony Albert spent decades collecting racist ‘Aboriginalia’. Now he wants to turn yours into art
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/ng-interactive/2026/may/20/tony-albert-not-a-souvenir-mca-museum-contemporary-art-aboriginalia-into-art
Well, I suppose a man’s gotta sleep.
Do you think that looking at this polling that Winston Peters is a political opportunist? He seems to talk big, but the fact is that even if New Zealand First gets 15% of the vote, the biggest party in a potential coalition will still be either Labour, or National, and it’s not even close.
So very Green !
Labor have at least a fair number of glories in the glory box!
Twitter handle JohnnyAGI sums up the MAGA crowd
————-+++
They loved Marjorie Taylor Greene, now they hate her.
They loved Thomas Massie, now they hate him.
They loved Lauren Boebert, now they hate her.
They made fun of Biden for nodding off (“Sleepy Joe), now they ignore Trump outright falling asleep.
They put “I Did That” Biden stickers on high gas prices, now they ignore gas prices being even higher.
They bragged about Trump being the no wars President, now they support war.
They bashed Biden for sending money to Ukraine, now they ignore Trump sending money to both Ukraine and Israel.
They demanded the Epstein files, now they bash anyone asking for the Epstein files.
To be a MAGA is to be a slave.
Not physically, but mentally.
They stand for nothing.
We’re up against people who stand for nothing.
And with the most misplaced confidence you’ve ever seen, they try to tell us whats-what.
We shouldn’t even acknowledge these people.
The Trump supporters that remain are mentally too far gone.
I don’t even want to argue with them anymore.
Nadia, thanks for all your excellent information from the YouGov poll. Important to see the real detail without the headline spin.
HBG, Difficult, Miscal and Pegasus
HH DP
Your UK Greens political party politicians are a joke.
Their Australian cousins are not much better. They want to block MG CGT changes of Albanese government. They find it is ‘easy being Liberal’
Tim Dunlop – The once and future egalitarian nation of Australia
https://thepoint.com.au/opinions/260519-the-once-and-future-egalitarian-nation-of-australia
“There is a deeper discontent in Australian society than the version One Nation is currently exploiting. What we might call an egalitarian anger exists too, a sometimes inchoate sense that the economic transformation of the last fifty-odd years has created such a concentration of wealth that the “fair go” we once saw as defining has gone forever. People might not frame it in terms of “neoliberalism” or “financialisaton”, but they can see in their rents and their debts and their kids’ prospects that the game is rigged in favour of people who aren’t them.
:::
Historically, a Labor government would ask questions like: why is housing supply dependent on private developers’ profit calculations? Why do we accept that shelter—a basic human necessity—should be allocated through a market that systematically favours those with existing capital? Why do we not tax adequately the super profits firms are making on resources we all own? Why are we spilling billions into a scheme as dubious as AUKUS while pushing people off the NDIS? The fact that such questions are largely ignored, or rendered beyond the pale, tells you how far the definitional boundary of “Labor” has shifted. It also tells you the extent to which our understanding of what is politically possible has been narrowed to something like “what the market will tolerate”.
A clever bit of jamming by the Russians:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/19/russian-jamming-blamed-nato-jet-downs-ukrainian-drone-estonia
Little Timmy has launched a ‘Stand With Small’ campaign.
When you have hundreds of councillors you will get a handful who don’t work out Ven, or even more as Reform is finding out
Enjoy your day folks
Whinging, whining and snarking is all the go. Apparently. I came across a book called ‘Victorian Primitive’ by Miles Lewis. It mainly consisted of what life was like for Victorians in the early days. By golly life was tough, hard, brutal and short.
Australians now have the largest housing footprint in the world.
Australians have ready access to a vastly better medical care.
Australians now have extensive support as we age.
Australians now have extensive support for child care.
Australians now have extensive support if they have a disability.
Public transport is infinitely better.
Australians are much, much less likely to get injured or to die on the job.
Vaccinations for all sorts of infectious diseases and conditions is far more readily available.
We have cleaner air than then.
More of the nation is sewered.
More of the roads are sealed.
More of the sewage is treated properly.
Our beaches are cleaner.
More people are on higher quality mains water.
Our per capita wealth is higher now.
The average educational attainment is higher now.
Food quality, quantity and variety are all much, much better now.
Domestic violence was rife but was not talked about.
Prejudice against gays was rife.
Oh. And we are living ten years longer.
But here is a Bludger Paradox: The more we have the more we whinge. Hanson and Waters have made political careers out of whinging.
I support the wealth transfer of the latest budget. It will cost us a lot of money. But I support it. What I would like to see is less whinging, whining and snarking and more appreciation of the good things in life.
Haven’t heard much from Angus Taylor , about any lib/nats energy policy which were supposed to be imminent in announcing them, that was about 3 weeks ago.
Lotto extension was in the works months before laws allowed it
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/lotto-extension-was-in-the-works-months-before-laws-allowed-it-20260519-p5zysy.html
“A secret plan to award the state’s lottery operator a multi-decade licence extension was hatched by the state government at least six months before the law was changed to allow the deal to go through.
:::
Under these new laws, the Victorian government has since awarded TLC a 40-year extension without a public tender process in return for an upfront premium payment of more than $1.1 billion.
::
Under the agreement, which is not yet public, the government also agreed to no “adverse” outcomes, which means the tax rate for lotteries will not be increased any further.”
Today morning I woke up with thoughts of MAGA people.
The one thing that struck me most about these Cretans is that they want their opponents (whom they consider as enemies) to be completely destroyed and suffer (and die if possible) and in the process even if they are destroyed they are fine with that.
With about 37% of US population being total MAGA, how can one expect US to become a sane country.
Look at Trump, he is getting away with total and open corruption. He is getting away with almost murder. His ICE are literally killing US citizens. How can non-US citizens (who are many in US) except any better.
US is gone
UK is gone
European leaders are in dire Straits and are deeply unpopular.
Australian media and LNP are trying their level best to make Australia another US/ UK.
Added to that Iran war is taking the world economy into recession
Contentious developments receiving fast-tracked approval under affordable housing pathway
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-20/luxury-apartments-greenlit-under-affordable-housing-scheme/106680592
“In short:
Luxury apartment blocks and contentious residential projects are being granted fast-tracked planning approval in Melbourne under a scheme intended to boost affordable housing.
The program allows applicants to make a cash contribution to a social housing fund instead of delivering affordable homes.
ABC analysis of dozens of planning permits suggests some proponents are using this pathway to secure approval for high-end projects in affluent areas.”
HH DP
Yesterday, BSF reported that Japanese term bonds hit hightest level in a long time.
Now US. US Treasury/ Reserve issued treasury bonds like confetti thinking that it will not impact US because US dollar has become ‘default currency’ of the world.
Now, “Treasury chickens are coming home to roost”.
Ven
I noted some Facebook comments about the ON win in Farrer…the glee with which a lot of ON supporters feasted on their perception that the win was causing the ‘Lefties’ to cry was very obvious.
MAGA support relies on this above all to retain their base in the face of everything Trump does to break election promises. Poorleen will try her hardest to achieve the same result.
HH DP
Unbelievable to put it mildly!!!
The media coverage to the tax changes have covered the expected binary of “to much” and “to little”, and the usual champions of tax reform have immediately prioritised call outs for carve outs rather than providing any broad support for the package.
What is very interesting is how the ususal oppositional commentariat (especially on the left) are now forced to write with increasingly narrow summations of what the government does – complaining about “neoliberalism” while ignoring the entire state-owned investment push running through Future Made in Australia; complaining about housing while effectively ignoring the budget last week. Some people here have even made complete fools of themselves making grand sweeping claims about the energy market without the slimmest idea of how it works.
This is why reform is hard.
I am not kidding!
Trump got a deal from the US Justice department, where he, his family and his organisation will not be prosecuted for any pending and/or future cases.
Morning all. Thanks for the cartoon roundup D&M and the international one HH. I love the cartoon by Katauskus poking fun at the hypocritical outrage of the investor class.
On the local news front, it looks like many of the remaining ISIS women and children are now planning a further return to Australia.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-20/more-isis-linked-women-due-back-in-aus/106699182
I think this is a good outcome. The sooner the kids, who are Australian citizens, return the better. The adults would still rather face a fair trial for their alleged crimes in Australia than stay in Syrian camps. This suggests the balance is right.
A few thoughts on the effects that the inflated One Nation vote might be having on 2PP.
Changes in party support since the 2025 election according to Bludgertrack:
One Nation +17.5%
Labor -4.7
Coalition -8.3
Green +0.3
Another number that might be relevant is the right-wing component of “other” – Palmer, Christian Right, Katter, etc. Adding up the numbers, this comes to 5.5% (https://results.aec.gov.au/31496/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-31496-NAT.htm).
So the increase in One Nation support is very close to the drop in support for the two majors since the 2025 election plus the total right-wing minor (excluding One Nation) in that election.
There would be lots of individual decisions, moves in all directions, but the change is consistent with:
– The drop in majors going mostly to One Nation
– One Nation having absorbed most of the remaining Far Right vote.
This would be relevant to trying to determine 2PP. Assuming that:
– the major party defectors to One Nation mostly give their second preference to their old party,
– Preferences of the far right minors split in a similar manner to those of One Nation (3:1 to Coalition in 2025).
– The preferences of the remaining 10.2% “Other” vote (Teals, other independents, centre and left minors, but no far right) mostly favour Labor.
The net effect on 2PP would be fairly small.
This is provided that One Nation doesn’t win more than a handful of seats. If it wins a significant number, that would be a whole new ball game.