The latest instalment in the occasional EMRS poll series on Tasmanian state voting intention is the second to include One Nation as a response option, and it records a five-point increase in their support to 19%, with Liberal down four to 25%, Labor up one to 24% and the Greens down one to 14%. This would seem to raise the prospect of future elections being contests between Liberal-One Nation and Labor-Greens blocs, with the present result being a moderate lead for the former.
Personal ratings for the three leaders are little changed, though Jeremy Rockliff’s 44-25 lead over Labor’s Josh Willie reverses a slump in the last poll, when it narrowed to 40-26 from 50-24 in the poll last August. Rockliff’s favourable rating is down one to 34% with unfavourable up two to 38%; Willie is down one to 21% and steady on 17%; and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff is steady on 23% and down one to 28%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1000.
This post also offers an occasion to do something I too often neglect to do, which is to follow up the results of the periodic upper house elections after election night, which produced two fairly close results. In Huon south of Hobart, independent challenger Clare Glade-Wright unseated independent incumbent Dean Harriss by a margin of 2.5%, chasing down a 30.8% to 27.4% deficit on preferences from Labor (16.7%), the Greens (15.0%) and two independents (5.4% to 4.7%). In the Launceston region seat of Rosevears, Liberal incumbent Jo Palmer’s 42.4% to 25.1% primary lead was enough to hold out against Labor’s Ben McKinnon: the 16.0% vote of independent Susan Monson appeared only moderately favourable to Labor while the Greens’ 16.4% split as Greens preferences typically do, giving Palmer enough leakage to prevail by a 2.8% margin.
One Nation doing their thing all over the country it seems
State based poll but will they help flip any of the seats federally? They’d win a Senate seat off a number like this, I think Pauline’s daughter Lee will top the ticket
On a state basis, Labor even further away from governing unless they change their approach?
Just wondering if Rockliff will be looking at pulling the trigger on an early election, given he has a 44-25 rating against the “opposition leader”.
At the moment, he has an agreement with the Greens.
From his POV, it might be easier dealing with O.N.
HBG – The Tasmanian Labor party was placed under National administration in 2022 due to poor election results and internal disputes which damaged the party.
I believe they are now back “out of administration”.
I think if Rockliff makes Tasmanian voters go to the polls for the third time in as many years, he will be punished for it.
Honestly, grand coalition looking more and more realistic if this continues.
Nadia I think Rockliff is quite moderate, can’t imagine him working with One Nation
I think it would be extremely unlikely Jeremy Rockliff would want to call an early election based on this poll, given the collapse in the primary vote of the Tasmanian Liberals. Especially given Tasmanian Labor were seen to be punished for triggering the last election early.
HBG – I’d think Rockliff would be “smelling the political breeze” in Tasmania.
He currently has an alliance with the Greens in the Tas lower house, because the Tas Green’s despise Tas Labor. Anyone with a pulse know’s this “relationship” won’t last.
If I was Rockliff, I’d be looking for any excuse to pull an election. Any trivial issue will do (ie: the Greens blocking funding for a round-a-bout somewhere, or some sort of “save the bird’s” issue in NW Tasmania. That’ll do.)
Given Lambie is no longer a thing in Tasmania (Gosh, even Tyrell worked that out & has jumped ship accordingly, to save her Senate spot), Rockcliff can see the “remnant right” vote is coalescing around O.N.
If I was him, I’d be looking at a new election. He know’s the Green relationship won’t last long.
I think you’ve got it backwards Nadia, Tas Labor hate the Greens, they’d be government now if they didn’t
We’ll see how it plays out but I think you’ve got a bad read on this one
I think though H.B.G., it’s a stretch on your behalf to think that Rockliff would prefer to be backed up by the Greens in Parliament, instead of One Nation. We’ll see.
Nadia,
Heck no Rockliff won’t go.
Don’t just look at the headline numbers – break it down seat by seat. Look at that one Liberal seat in Denison, and one in Franklin, and two in Lyons and Braddon, and one maybe two in Bass.
By this poll, the ALP stays about where it is, and the Liberals lose ~5 of their seats to One Nation.
Therefore, rather than deal with the pains of a minority government, if the election goes the way this poll shows … then Rockliff needs to deal with an even more minority government, with fewer Liberals.
Right now, he’s on a good thing. Why would he stuff it up ?
Nadia, not the Greens in alliance with the Libs. It’s Labor. Formally its some independents but informally Labor prop up the Libs all the time. Rockcliff has 3 years left in his current term, there is no election on the horizon
And to quote the movie Poltergeist, they’re here.
Maybe that’s the way forward down there based on these numbers MI, a not so grand coalition. Labor and Liberals getting together, especially as they back each other so often anyways
Budget day, where is Abetz going to find some money?
Premature speculation abounds.
Yes, I agree with the election sceptics. The Liberals have more seats in parliament than they would probably get after an election, and by the sounds of it they have more than one route to get a bill through – as long as they don’t offend anyone too much. If an election were held now, those numbers would point towards coalition rather than minority, and that means the Liberals would be constrained to work with a single partner for the whole term. I can’t say he’d hold on for dear life or run the parliament till the month it expires, but I think he’d prefer to keep going.
It also somewhat depends on who it is that is likely to switch to One Nation and who it is that is likely to switch between the Liberals and Labor: if these are largely discrete groups, it could happen that, in an election campaign where the options seem like Liberal/One Nation vs Labor/Green, Lib/Lab switchers end up switching back to Labor for the first time in a long time, without any enthusiasm, because it might seem like the lower risk. If, on the other hand, Lib/Lab switchers are disproportionately part of the group turning to One Nation at the moment, it might not matter much to the outcome of the election. I imagine a competent party would have that sounded out long before even the voters or the polls do.
And on Rockliff’s side is the fact that One Nation will be untested in the Tasmanian parliament. If other parliaments are a guide, he can probably pull them apart and give himself more flexible parliamentary support. But you wouldn’t want to count that as part of a strategy before the election is called. It’s what you deal with after the results are in.
There’s a good chance the Liberals will, Australia wide, come to an agreement with One Nation to joint action to keep or get Labor out of government. Maybe Tasmania will provide the first clear example.
nadia
Tyrrell didn’t “jump ship.” Lambie chucked her out of her party.
Lambie, by the way, has been out of the political action for quite some time due to ill-health and nobody seems to know if or when she is coming back.
Can I please correct a common misapprehension that I quite often see on PB and in other places.
As HBG pointed out earlier, Tas Labor absolutely loathes the Greens. And that’s not because of the influence of the right faction of the ALP, which is comparatively weak down here. It’s because of the left faction, which is strongly and persistently anti-environment due to its close ties to the industrial unions, particularly the AMWU.
So any dreams anybody from the mainland might have about an ACT-style Labor-Greens coalition (which has collapsed anyway) are delusional. It can work in the ACT, because there aren’t any dirty industries there.
The left faction of the ALP are generally not very pro-environment. Tanya Plib and Dougie Cameron are on the side of the angels, but most of the other ALP figures who have taken a strong interest in the environment (Richo, Bob Carr, Barry Cohen, Chris Bowen, etc.) come from the right side of the party.
Rafiki,
You have it backwards. What the rise of One Nation does is force the Liberal party into fighting for rural and regional seats and distracts attention away from the seats it needs to take off the ALP to form government.
In any case, I’m sceptical at the ability of One Nation to keep hold of it’s elected members – it’s core supporter base are angry, alienated, hate being told what to do and believe in their freedom to do what they want. The odds of tight party discipline are not high.
meher baba says:
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 10:51 am
nadia
Given Lambie is no longer a thing in Tasmania (Gosh, even Tyrell worked that out & has jumped ship accordingly, to save her Senate spot), Rockcliff can see the “remnant right” vote is coalescing around O.N.
Tyrrell didn’t “jump ship.” Lambie chucked her out of her party.
Lambie, by the way, has been out of the political action for quite some time due to ill-health and nobody seems to know if or when she is coming back.
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Meher,
Apologies. What I meant with regard to Tyrrell is that she can probably see she won’t retain her seat in her own right, and has “jumped ship” to Labor.
I’m aware she and Lambie parted company several years ago.
Ian Whitchurch says:
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 11:08 am
Rafiki,
You have it backwards. What the rise of One Nation does is force the Liberal party into fighting for rural and regional seats and distracts attention away from the seats it needs to take off the ALP to form government.
In any case, I’m sceptical at the ability of One Nation to keep hold of it’s elected members – it’s core supporter base are angry, alienated, hate being told what to do and believe in their freedom to do what they want. The odds of tight party discipline are not high.
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I think you’re correct with this assessment…and Pauline has already said she doesn’t want ministries because she “doesn’t want to be told how to vote by the Libs”.
Link (to an i/view she did a couple of months back): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScnzwpLfltg
meher baba says:
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 11:02 am
Can I please correct a common misapprehension that I quite often see on PB and in other places.
As HBG pointed out earlier, Tas Labor absolutely loathes the Greens…….
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I understand what you and HBG are saying, but it doesn’t look to me like one way traffic (ie: Labor loathes the Greens, but the Greens don’t loathe Tas Labor).
At the end of the day, the Greens provided support to Prem Rockliff (a Lib).
Appears to me that the Greens in Tas don’t like Labor that much, unless it’s the LOTO they don’t like.
Felix says:
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 at 9:33 am
Yes, I agree with the election sceptics……
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Yep, I probably get a bit caught up with “let’s have an election” type posts.
There is not much in the way of Tas polling. I think Roy Morgan occasionally polls in Tasmania, but yes, one poll does not necessite an early election. As explained above by another poster, Tasmanian’s probably wouldn’t appreciate a third election in as many years given the Lower House appears quite stable atm.
Nadia,
I wouldn’t predict the Lower House is stable when there’s a budget coming up that is going to contain unpopular decisions, and the government has only 14 of 35 votes.
My post above is based simply on the numbers. Neither the Liberals nor ON can form a government, and competing for seats would be expensive, and possibly enable Labor to win seats. If the Lib and ON leaders act on the precept that necessity is the mother of invention, they might work out (1) some elements of a common platform platform that would appeal enough to their respective supporter bases to keep them onside, and (2) avoid splitting their support electorate by electorate.
Of course, there’s reasons why such a project would fail. If Abbott is the Lib party president, it might be dead ab initio. And polling results will influence details of any such project.
Ian Whitchurch,
Thanks. I see the budget is scheduled for this Thurs night, and is billed to contain significant cuts to expenditure. We’ll see what comes of it.
Splitting the vote between PHON and LIBS means a lot less when you have proportional representation. It can even mean gaining extra seats, depending on the relativity of quotas, as per the 2004 senate election (QLD) when the :Libs won 3 and the Nats 1.
Nadia: (above) “At the end of the day, the Greens provided support to Prem Rockliff (a Lib).”
Given the numbers on the floor of parliament, and the lead up behaviour of the state ALP prior to the election (no we won’t form government) the support (for supply) to the Libs was their only rational option. It may be the only time they have been rational. Just as Peter Wellington backing Peter Beattie in 1998 was his only rational option.
The Greens tried to negotiate minority government with Labor but they weren’t willing to give any ground
Noting I’ve heard they weren’t the only ones that wouldn’t shift on things
From memory, the Liberals gave the Greens and Independents a ban on greyhound racing, that they’re struggling to deliver, and inquiry into salmon farming
Tassie Labor seem stuck in a netherworld between permanent opposition and part of the Liberal government they’ve supposed to be opposing – if any outraged Labor folk want to doubt that, here’s a Kevin Bonham article on upper house voting patterns. After the last election, which returned basically the same result as the last one with a shuffled crossbench, they attempted to form a majority government with 10 seats out of 35. While that inexplicably failed to happen, Rockliff threw a few post-election promises into the ring to keep the Greens and independents like Peter George happy (greyhound racing ban and salmon fishing inquiry). That’s how minority government works, and Rockliff has been smart enough to figure it out. Both of those things are still stuck in the upper house – the replacement of Dean Harriss (Lib-flavoured ind) with Clare Glade-Wright (teal-flavoured ind) could help move that along.
Also, after signing a formal agreement with JLN and then watching that fall apart, Rockliff wouldn’t be eager to do anything similar with One Nation. If the current arrangement doesn’t completely collapse, he would want to keep it going as long as possible. Even if an election threw up crazy numbers for One Nation, he might prefer to keep it going rather than deal with them. (That of course assumes Labor remain bloody-mindedly opposed to any possibility of a government which involves parties other than themselves.)
Rough guesses on the numbers for the hell of it (bearing in mind the major redistribution, which makes Franklin less Green and Lyons more suburban):
Bass: Lib 2, ALP 2, Grn 1, ON 1, Razay
Braddon: Lib 2, ALP 2, ON 2, Garland
Clark: ALP 2, Grn 2, Lib 1, ON 1, Johnston
Franklin: Lib 2, ALP 2, Grn 1, ON 1, O’Byrne
Lyons: Lib 2, ALP 2, ON 2, Grn 1
Total: ALP 10 (-), Lib 9 (-5), ON 7 (+7), Grn 5 (-), Ind 4 (-1), SFF 0 (-1).
Assuming all sitting independents run again and win (except Peter George, who apparently won’t go again). For extra spice assume Helen Burnet holds her seat in Clark (instead of a second Green). Just in case the current parliament wasn’t enough of a mess.
Tas Libs have announced a budget deficit of $1.057b next financial year.
1700 jobs in the public sector to be axed.
Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-21/tasmanian-state-budget-2026-cuts-and-debt/106695336
We’ll see how this one goes down.
Extract from the ABC report from Nadia’s link above…
“In 2026-27, the state will record a $596.7 million net operating deficit. When capital expenditure is included, it equates to a $1.057 billion fiscal deficit.
But that is the only operating deficit in the four years projected, with a surplus of $192.3 million projected the following year, increasing to $622 million by 2029-30.”
Fargo61,
The growth assumptions that get you to that surplus are pretty heroic.
Table 1.1 on p9 of the actual Budget paper no 1 projects revenue to go from roughly 9.5b this year to 11.6b in 2029-30. That’s pretty … optimistic …
Table 2.1 on page 24 is assuming the state will grow at 0.75% next financial year, but this will then jump up to 2.25% real growth for no readily explained reason (chart 2.4 has the RBA estimating Australia growing at 1.6% in the same years).
My strong suspicion is if you dropped the real growth rate then the surplus goes in the other direction pretty fast.
Here’s the actual budget paper.
https://www.treasury.tas.gov.au/Documents/2026-27%20Budget%20Paper%20No.%201,%20Budget%20Strategy%20and%20Estimates.PDF
Ian Whitchurch says: Friday, May 22, 2026 at 3:49 pm
“Fargo61, The growth assumptions that get you to that surplus are pretty heroic.”
Thanks Ian,
Those Tasmanian government growth estimates are similar to the federal government budget estimates (page 7 of budget paper number 1) which are 1.75% for 2026-27, 2.25% for 2027-28 and 2.5% thereafter.
Both are probably very optimistic, and are assuming lower inflation and lower unemployment than will probably occur.
Fargo61,
You probably want to check chart 2.8. The footnote says “Source: Actual – National, state and territory population, ABS; Forecasts- Treasury”.
aka For anything forward-looking, they’re Tasmanian numbers.
As well, given ~30% “Own Source Revenue”, I’d be interested if the Federal government knows that to balance the Tasmanian government’s budget by 2029 they’ll need to give the Tasmanian government another *quick maths of 70% of 2.1b* 1.4 billion a year.