| Projected 3CP | Projected 2CP | Win Probability |
Click here for full display of Nepean by-election results
End of evening. Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh has a 13.5% margin over independent Tracee Hutchison, assuming the latter does indeed make the final count over One Nation’s Darren Hercus, which my system projects her as doing by 30.8% to 28.3% based on preference estimates. Marsh’s final margin over Hercus would likely be very similar. How pleased the Liberals should be about this depends on your starting assumptions: the party would have been appalled if told about such a result a year ago, but in the more immediate time frame would be greatly relieved. It suggests One Nation’s competitiveness in November should be limited to deep rural seats, and shortens the odds on the Coalition translating what seems at present to be a slender polling lead into a parliamentary majority.
10.35pm. The 14,000 vote block of early votes that came in on the primary vote about two hours ago are now in on TCP, which I suspect wraps things up for the evening.
9.45pm. Postals, which were heavily favourable to Liberal, have reported on the TCP, which has blown out the Liberal margin over Hutchison from 9.0% to 13.4%.
9.15pm. The last and largest election day booth, Rosebud, has reported on the primary vote, and I’m less certain now that Tracee Hutchison will get ahead of One Nation on preferences, that latter’s first preference lead now being at 24.7% to 21.3%. The outcome at the final count, to be clear, will be a Liberal win either way.
8.55pm. The latest ten-minute update had TCP results from Dromana Beach and the earlier batch of early votes.
8.47pm. A huge chunk of early votes — nearly 14,000 — just reported on the primary vote. This presumably included the voting centre in Rosebud, which presumably did a lot of business, because it’s substantially lifted the One Nation vote compared with the 2645 votes from the first early voting batch. The Liberal vote has dipped below 40%, and One Nation has a primary vote lead over Tracee Hutchison that looks big enough to be maintained, but not enough to stop them being overtaken when Greens preferences are distributed.
8.26pm. We’ve now got 5531 postal votes plus a primary vote result from Red Hill. The Liberals have topped 50% of the primary vote on the postals, and done well enough in Red Hill. One Nation’s Darren Hercus has now edged ahead of Tracee Hutchison on first preferences, though Greens preferences should push the latter ahead of the former, while Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh is sitting pretty on over 40%.
8.16pm. Five booths have just landed on the primary vote, including strong results for One Nation at Dromana Beach, Rosebud West and Tootgarook and weak ones at Sorrento and Shoreham. The gap between Tracee Hutchison and One Nation has as expected narrowed, now at 23.8% to 21.2%, but Hutchison seems assured to remain ahead on Greens preferences (in which case, hats off to the VEC for picking the right candidates for its two-candidate count). Either way, the 36.6% Liberal primary vote looks insurmountable.
8.06pm. My results system, which is more aggressive than it used to be, is now projecting a win for the Liberals after a very strong result for them on early votes: 45.5% out of 2645 added, compared with just 16.4% for One Nation, who have fallen below 20%. I should add a note of caution though: these early votes are likely either or both of the two voting centres from the Sorrento end, and the polling booths too under-represent what are likely to be the strongest areas for One Nation. Even so, we’re at a point in the count where One Nation would have to be doing a lot better than the current raw primary vote numbers (Liberal 37.8%, independent 25.0%, One Nation 19.8%) if they were going to be competitive, and it’s clear from the two-candidate count that Hutchison will not be competitive in the final count.
7.56pm. The regular ten-minute update brings only two further TCP results, which only serve to confirm that Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh will prevail comfortably in a two-candidate count against Hutchison. The alternative possibility is that Hutchison will land third and Marsh will go up against One Nation, in which case it’s no easier to see how Marsh loses.
7.47pm. The small Boneo booth, with 388 votes, has reported at the modest end for One Nation with 19.1%. Two booths are in on the two-candidate the VEC is conducting between Liberal and Tracee Hutchison, which may prove to have been the right candidate pairing after all. They are breaking nearly 60-40 in favour of Liberal, suggesting they are heading for a comfortable win unless One Nation has a surge in store from somewhere or other.
7.37pm. The Dromana and Flinders booths are now in on the primary vote, and the former is as anticipated better for One Nation, who have edged out the Liberals there by 29.5% to 29.1%. Flinders on the other hand has stayed loyal to Liberal, with One Nation not even making double figures. My system is writing off One Nation’s chances of making the final count, but I’m less confident about that than I normally would be because One Nation didn’t run here in 2022, meaning there is no historic data for them. Some strong results for One Nation in the Rosebud booths could change things, but they would have to be particularly good for them. The other unknown is how early votes are behaving.
7:25pm. A third booth, Waterfall Gully, is in on the primary vote. This is a better area for One Nation, who have polled 27.2% there compared with 20.6% in the first two booths. Even here though the gap is narrow, with Hutchison on 23.7% and set to benefit from the 12.9% vote for the Greens. Unless One Nation do quite a bit better around Rosebud and Dromana, they will finish third and their preferences decide the result, presumably in favour of the Liberals.
7:17pm. We have primary booth results in from Blairgowrie and Rye, both at the weak end of the electorate for One Nation, who trail Tracee Hutchison for second by 24.0% to 20.6%. My system is presently projecting that order will remain after preferences, but it’s doing so with no historic sense of the spread of One Nation support. No doubt correctly, it’s projecting the Liberals as more likely to win than Hutchison after the distribution of One Nation preferences.
6:10pm. It appears from the Victorian Electoral Commission results page that the indicative two-candidate preferred count will be between Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh and independent Tracee Hutchison, and not One Nation candidate Darren Hercus as I would have assumed.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Victorian state by-election for Nepean. I will also be following the count for the Tasmanian upper house seats of Huon and Rosevears as updates on the dedicated post. The Victorian Electoral Commission advises we should not expect results until “approximately 7:30pm”. Counting of early and postal votes will take place this evening, as well as election day votes. Results will be updated every 10 minutes. The VEC does not break out its early voting results by location (it will rectify this at the general election in November), so the substantial number of votes that appear under “Early” will be a mixed bag of result Rosebud and Dromana, where One Nation is likely to poll well, and Blairgowrie, where they should be relatively weak.
> Are you still awaiting those pre-poll, absentee and postal votes?
Only that I grew up on the peninsula and I reckon that if any part is going to go to ON it is the bit back of Rosebud. More so than Sorrento or Blairgowrie lol
Nepean is not natural One Nation territory. The demographics of Nepean is a bit like how the inner Eastern suburbs looked in the 1990s; pre-the influx of Asians which has changed how seats like Hawthorn, Box Hill, etc vote. The type of place where a “wet” used to win.
MKroger: ON can’t win Napean.
Lukem – Yes, the further east on the bay coast the more middle class the areas become (as opposed to Richy rich land).
Looks like a comfortable Liberal retain. As it should be, of course. Will wait to see the final numbers for an idea of what kind of inroads ON has made to the Liberal vote and what this could mean for the state election, but at least it isn’t looking like the ON vote is exceeding the polling (as it didn’t in SA).
Nothing to do with the count but it’s irritating me so I’m going to ask…
Does anybody know how to pronounce the Greens’ candidate’s given name?
Big Green numbers in Rye is interesting.
Rosebud West/Tootgarook should be PHON’s best booths.
ON never in it. Lazy media hype based on the supposed feels and vox pops. Pauline can’t even string a coherent sentence together.
@AM
I believe it’s an alternative Irish spelling of “Shannon”.
Thanks, Expat.
Conroy and Kroger on Sky. Hard to determine who I dislike more..
Libs win!
William’s system has called it, an easy Liberal retain
Looking forward to seeing what the final preference flows are, 60ish% One Nation to Liberal?
Hanson’s call for the Liberals to get out of the gutter seems to have worked.
😆
William has One Nation back below 20%, looks like the only part of my prediction that’s right so far lol
Quite a few Labor voters must have voted Liberal
Well well, Pauline not going as well as certain people want.
I guess Big Gina’s going to have Darren Hercus thrown into the Sarlacc Pit for failing her.
Ben resorting to Simpsons references lol
Rosebud West and Tootgarook were indeed both better for One Nation
It will be interesting to see how postals go. If One Nation does poorly on those, that could be change things in Farrer.
Also expect a fairly low turnout here. There has been far less publicity than a normal election.
Looks like major party early vote mojo works again. A lot of inertia to overcome for indies and flavour-of-the-month 3rdies.
If Dromana and Rosebud West have voted strongly for ON (~29% at time of writing) that suggests to me that outer suburban voters from Frankston all the way round to Werribee are listening… a bit of a worry for the Libs tbh
Apologies for ever doubting you, William!
One Nation has just overtaken the Teal on primaries.
Interesting that One Nation beat Hutchison quite easily on Postal votes
Green vote is down to 10% which is a bit disappointing
Large vote count just dropped in. Leading candidate picked up many votes. 2nd and 3rd candidates getting very squished against the other.
Liberals got 51% of the Primary vote on Postal votes.
And in breaking News – The Libs have retained a notionally safe seat against an empty chair!
(Thank Dog, ON choked. Democracy lives to fight another day.)
Jacinta Allen would be quietly happy seeing the Liberal Party only picking up a 1% TPP swing, will be bigger if PHON finish 2nd.
Libs will be happy to get 40% of the primary vote, Jess Wilson has something to celebrate
Holy vote count.
VEC just showed formal votes counted at just over 30000 from 16000. approx.
If you want more proof that Sky After Darkers are all con-artists look at the results on the Western Port side of the district. Shoreham is (I think) the closest booth to Somers (just outside the district) where Andrew Bolt moved. It voted 60:40 in favour of the independent and also soundly rejected ON. He spent a life time hacking into greenies and promoting big business, mining and racism but for his retirement picked an extremely environmental community-minded area.
Looking like One Nation could finish 2nd on primaries after building a bit of a lead on Hutchison, 3rd after Greens preferences
Rosebud must have a lot of votes, they are still to hit
Holy shit. One Nation isn’t even in the count. It’s a Liberal vs Teal contest with the Liberals absolutely demolishing the Teal at this stage in the count.
VEC reporting another 8000 formal votes.
I was hoping that more liberals would have voted for Hutchison but a pretty strong result for Jess Wilson.
Looks like a lot of Labor voters in Rosebud and Dromana have gone to Hanson.
Rosebud hit and One Nation wins it by 50 or so from the Liberals, Huchison a couple of hundred behind
LukeM, it reminds me of Peta Credlin who despises those woke inner city latte sipping Greens communists… but lives in an apartment in the woke inner city latte sipping Adam Bandt electing Division of Melbourne.
Where she lived was awful with her ranting and raving for Murdoch money convincing outer suburbs bogans and rural rednecks that city dwellers are evil, but not awful enough to leave.
Seems like Prue and Trude from Sorrento stuck with the Liberals over Pauline.
I’m sure the $7.46 per first preference vote will provide some comfort for Pauline. Perish the thought that this is why she might be getting involved in this process.
Liberals will be happy getting almost 40% of the primary vote, One Nation will be happy with around 25%, Huchison will be disappointed at just above 20% and the Greens won’t be happy with just under 10%
Labor voters look to have scattered in all directions, except Green
It’ll be interesting to see the analysis in the coming days
LukeMsays:
Saturday, May 2, 2026 at 8:48 pm
If you want more proof that Sky After Darkers are all con-artists look at the results on the Western Port side of the district. Shoreham is (I think) the closest booth to Somers (just outside the district) where Andrew Bolt moved.
_______________________
Clutching at straws there. Who cares where Bolt lives. He is a journalist and commentator.
I would be more concerned with Luba Grigorovitch if I was you.
Represents a Kororoit. A working class electorate in Melbourne’s West but splits her time between a penthouse in south Yarra and a mansion down on the Mornington Peninsula.
That doesn’t worry you at all ?
@Taylormade
You still intend to give it to her and her redshirt volunteers with both barrels?
A 7% swing to the LNP despite all the doomsayers saying the Libs need to be more to the right to starve of ON and more to the left to starve the “Teals” at the same time. Victorians are sick of the incompetence, dishonesty and corruptions of the ALP. The tumbrils are coming for Jacinta and no-one can save her/hers/she political life.
@Paul James Baker – Pauline may save her political life. Time will tell.
>Paul James Baker says:
>Saturday, May 2, 2026 at 10:09 pm
>A 7% swing to the LNP despite all the doomsayers saying the Libs need to be more to the right to starve of ON and more to the left to starve the “Teals” at the same time.
10% swing against them on primaries and we do not have a two party prefered for LNP vs Independent from last time
A by-election in a safe Liberal seat where Labor didn’t stand a candidate is a judgement on Labor? Really?
This contest reminds me of a night where the only footy game on TV is Carlton versus Collingwood, and you don’t like either of them. You sit back knowing that no matter what, you get to see a side you don’t like lose, and secretly hope it is hard fought and there are a few suspensions. In Nepean ON once again blew a chance to win the kind of outer urban seat they have to win to become LOTO.
Something wrong with the Greens if they can’t gain votes when there is no Labor candidate.
A lot of Labor votes seem to have gone to ON and then flowed through to the Libs on preferences. A trend like that in November will doom Labor.
An interesting result in Nepean. The Libs retain the seat, Labor didn’t field a candidate. By – elections frequently go against the Government but no indications of that occurring, despite PPs claims about Labors unpopularity. The Liberal win was reasonably comfortable, but as William says in his summary, somewhat mixed results. ON looks like coming third. Where did the Labor vote go? To the Independent? Final results may tell us.
ON appears to appeal only to rural voters ( lets see what happens in Farrer) and even in an electorate with a fair – sized cohort of older voters, still couldn’t figure in the final mix.
Victorian Labor will be reasonably happy with the result. Liberals? No evidence of anti- Government swings there…
In such a small State with a high percentage of urban voters, the Right appear to have a huge task ahead of them to take Government from the incumbents.
Labor must lift its game, with or without Allan. It will go out of its way to remind voters about the real state of the Liberals, despite the seeming calm in Opposition mood at the moment. There are still undercurrents despite the calm appearance of Jess and her team.
As for The Age and the Hun, where is their campaign against Allan and Labor going?
After Nepean, no evidence of any effects they can claim , despite lots of polling….
Effectively, status quo.
Tracee Hutchison has announced this morning that she’s running again in November.