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Click here for full display of Nepean by-election results
End of evening. Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh has a 13.5% margin over independent Tracee Hutchison, assuming the latter does indeed make the final count over One Nation’s Darren Hercus, which my system projects her as doing by 30.8% to 28.3% based on preference estimates. Marsh’s final margin over Hercus would likely be very similar. How pleased the Liberals should be about this depends on your starting assumptions: the party would have been appalled if told about such a result a year ago, but in the more immediate time frame would be greatly relieved. It suggests One Nation’s competitiveness in November should be limited to deep rural seats, and shortens the odds on the Coalition translating what seems at present to be a slender polling lead into a parliamentary majority.
10.35pm. The 14,000 vote block of early votes that came in on the primary vote about two hours ago are now in on TCP, which I suspect wraps things up for the evening.
9.45pm. Postals, which were heavily favourable to Liberal, have reported on the TCP, which has blown out the Liberal margin over Hutchison from 9.0% to 13.4%.
9.15pm. The last and largest election day booth, Rosebud, has reported on the primary vote, and I’m less certain now that Tracee Hutchison will get ahead of One Nation on preferences, that latter’s first preference lead now being at 24.7% to 21.3%. The outcome at the final count, to be clear, will be a Liberal win either way.
8.55pm. The latest ten-minute update had TCP results from Dromana Beach and the earlier batch of early votes.
8.47pm. A huge chunk of early votes — nearly 14,000 — just reported on the primary vote. This presumably included the voting centre in Rosebud, which presumably did a lot of business, because it’s substantially lifted the One Nation vote compared with the 2645 votes from the first early voting batch. The Liberal vote has dipped below 40%, and One Nation has a primary vote lead over Tracee Hutchison that looks big enough to be maintained, but not enough to stop them being overtaken when Greens preferences are distributed.
8.26pm. We’ve now got 5531 postal votes plus a primary vote result from Red Hill. The Liberals have topped 50% of the primary vote on the postals, and done well enough in Red Hill. One Nation’s Darren Hercus has now edged ahead of Tracee Hutchison on first preferences, though Greens preferences should push the latter ahead of the former, while Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh is sitting pretty on over 40%.
8.16pm. Five booths have just landed on the primary vote, including strong results for One Nation at Dromana Beach, Rosebud West and Tootgarook and weak ones at Sorrento and Shoreham. The gap between Tracee Hutchison and One Nation has as expected narrowed, now at 23.8% to 21.2%, but Hutchison seems assured to remain ahead on Greens preferences (in which case, hats off to the VEC for picking the right candidates for its two-candidate count). Either way, the 36.6% Liberal primary vote looks insurmountable.
8.06pm. My results system, which is more aggressive than it used to be, is now projecting a win for the Liberals after a very strong result for them on early votes: 45.5% out of 2645 added, compared with just 16.4% for One Nation, who have fallen below 20%. I should add a note of caution though: these early votes are likely either or both of the two voting centres from the Sorrento end, and the polling booths too under-represent what are likely to be the strongest areas for One Nation. Even so, we’re at a point in the count where One Nation would have to be doing a lot better than the current raw primary vote numbers (Liberal 37.8%, independent 25.0%, One Nation 19.8%) if they were going to be competitive, and it’s clear from the two-candidate count that Hutchison will not be competitive in the final count.
7.56pm. The regular ten-minute update brings only two further TCP results, which only serve to confirm that Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh will prevail comfortably in a two-candidate count against Hutchison. The alternative possibility is that Hutchison will land third and Marsh will go up against One Nation, in which case it’s no easier to see how Marsh loses.
7.47pm. The small Boneo booth, with 388 votes, has reported at the modest end for One Nation with 19.1%. Two booths are in on the two-candidate the VEC is conducting between Liberal and Tracee Hutchison, which may prove to have been the right candidate pairing after all. They are breaking nearly 60-40 in favour of Liberal, suggesting they are heading for a comfortable win unless One Nation has a surge in store from somewhere or other.
7.37pm. The Dromana and Flinders booths are now in on the primary vote, and the former is as anticipated better for One Nation, who have edged out the Liberals there by 29.5% to 29.1%. Flinders on the other hand has stayed loyal to Liberal, with One Nation not even making double figures. My system is writing off One Nation’s chances of making the final count, but I’m less confident about that than I normally would be because One Nation didn’t run here in 2022, meaning there is no historic data for them. Some strong results for One Nation in the Rosebud booths could change things, but they would have to be particularly good for them. The other unknown is how early votes are behaving.
7:25pm. A third booth, Waterfall Gully, is in on the primary vote. This is a better area for One Nation, who have polled 27.2% there compared with 20.6% in the first two booths. Even here though the gap is narrow, with Hutchison on 23.7% and set to benefit from the 12.9% vote for the Greens. Unless One Nation do quite a bit better around Rosebud and Dromana, they will finish third and their preferences decide the result, presumably in favour of the Liberals.
7:17pm. We have primary booth results in from Blairgowrie and Rye, both at the weak end of the electorate for One Nation, who trail Tracee Hutchison for second by 24.0% to 20.6%. My system is presently projecting that order will remain after preferences, but it’s doing so with no historic sense of the spread of One Nation support. No doubt correctly, it’s projecting the Liberals as more likely to win than Hutchison after the distribution of One Nation preferences.
6:10pm. It appears from the Victorian Electoral Commission results page that the indicative two-candidate preferred count will be between Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh and independent Tracee Hutchison, and not One Nation candidate Darren Hercus as I would have assumed.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Victorian state by-election for Nepean. I will also be following the count for the Tasmanian upper house seats of Huon and Rosevears as updates on the dedicated post. The Victorian Electoral Commission advises we should not expect results until “approximately 7:30pm”. Counting of early and postal votes will take place this evening, as well as election day votes. Results will be updated every 10 minutes. The VEC does not break out its early voting results by location (it will rectify this at the general election in November), so the substantial number of votes that appear under “Early” will be a mixed bag of result Rosebud and Dromana, where One Nation is likely to poll well, and Blairgowrie, where they should be relatively weak.
VEC have Lib and Ind in the 2CP
Ohh exciting and skynoos have full live coverage, I have never seen multiple sky reporter live on TV but they all have that very ernest/excited tone like AFL sports reporters.
It is Game On, can the Liberals hold off One Nation?, will the Liberals be ready to take power in November?, what does this mean for One Nation? and a big lot of Testes, ON, Liberals, Jess Wilson…..oh the manufactured TV Drama…….and we will have the fresh young face of M Kroger on the election panel all this before any votes are counted.
Seriously Rex? Ind vs Libs, according the SkyNoos its all ON v Libs, they did say the Greens and and Ind were running but that was it.
Dr
The Sky coverage run a very particular narrative to satisfy their devotees.
I’d sooner stick pins in my eyes than partake in that. 🙂
Low-key think this election is a big a deal as Farrer. Another data point on One Nation. Not just their well noted surge but also first real info on how much of the surge is real nationally. Victoria has traditionally had zero patience for One Nation… if they are getting votes here then it is a big deal. And of course, a big pointer to the upcoming Vic election… and of course, a strong independent candidate
I was hoping 6 News would be covering this one but can’t see a live stream on their YouTube channel
@Rex
It is their breathless excitement of the prospects of One Nation victory that is so over the top, and coming soon Farrier , another test for the Liberals…
One thing that’s coming across is how angry the Liberals are reacting to the ON threat
And this drivel is broadcast free for regional Australians
An Independent victory would be just priceless.
From my observation, the Liberals think they are entitled to disgruntled former labor votes but are worried ON will hoover them up instead. How this will play out with any loss of their own vote will be another thing entirely.
“The commission will proceed with its Lib vs Hutchison count even if it’s clear Hutchison (or the Liberal, for that matter) will come third. In that scenario it would then be up to the commission to decide if it chooses to rethrow those preferences early next week, or if it will wait to conduct a full distribution of preferences.” – Casey Briggs, ABC.
In recent times, disgruntled Labor voters have tended to drift to the Greens, but now it looks like a fair chunk are going the other way. It depends on the reason for their lack of gruntlement, whether they think Labor is too far to the right or too far to the left.
@AM
Hopefully for the Liberals their voters will remain gruntled or even supergrunteled to maintain their previous PV.
I hope the VEC has got it right and One Nation runs third, in line with my prediction (read guess)
Seeing as we have to wait till 7.30pm, hopefully that means we get a decent lump of votes to kick the night off
One nation volunteer doing his block at the polling place:
https://sh.reddit.com/r/friendlyjordies/comments/1t1i9g4/one_nation_volunteer_abuses_traffic_controller/
So, according to VEC, from a very small vote counted(I don’t know where it came from )
Lib: 33.45
Milthorpe: 23.99%
ON: 20.5%
MKroger is still going on and on non stop on Sky after dark
Click on the link above Ven and you can see where they are from here. One Nation running 3rd after 2 booths at around 20%. You would think Rosebud West would be one of their stronger ones
Hanson is currently the most popular leader in Australia as per net approval ratings. What a travesty.
PHON comes third in Rye, it’s hard to see them making the final two.
Rye and Blairgowrie 20% for one nation time to worry libs.
Rural areas will they swing to on?
Ven says:
Saturday, May 2, 2026 at 7:17 pm
MKroger is still going on and on non stop on Sky after dark
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He started off all right but at the end got to the unhinged bit – describing federal Labor as ‘Hard Left’ and just buying their way into Government, praising K Rudd as being more to the center and of course the Marxist Greens
Pretty good early numbers for ON from Blairgowrie, Rye and Waterfall Gully.
Watch out for the Rosebud booth…
pied piper
They poor results for PHON.
ON has increased to 22.5%
Libs went down to 31.5%
Milthorpe holding up
Ven
Milthorpe isn’t running in Nepean.
Ven I think you’re mistaking Tracee Hutchison for Michelle Milthorpe
Nice to hear about the “week end” of the electorate
Also good to see the independent do well (so far)
Libs man said that since Labor is not contesting, the contest has become very difficult for Libs
So it is Labor’s fault that if Libs don’t win this by-election.
I think Hutchison is from Rosebud, that might help keep the One Nation vote down a bit
Ven, Milthorpe not running. Please check link for the independent name.
I’m calling a Lib win.
My bad. Thanks for the correcting me. 🙂
13% swing already against libs.
Dromana comes in for hometown ON boy
So much for the orange surge.
Hutchinson up to 25.1. Libs at 32.9 and ON at 22.1
Look’s like nearly a 14% swing against the Libs with about 7% counted…..and no Labor candidate sitting. I think this is a disaster result for Jess Wilson.
Flinders rejecting ON 🙂
Ind and Liberal well ahead of PHON in Flinders, the most rural booth in the seat
On Sky
A lot of speculation in UK that there could be a challenge to Starmer soon.
Looks like an Indie win.
It’s a shame Labor isn’t running to give us a more complete picture but such is life
Hard to see One Nation running 2nd from here
Edit I made a mistake earlier it was Rye not Rosebud West
Libs will win (but it was never likely to be anything else).
One Nation seem to be that low 20s thing they do in the polls.
There is no really rural area there. Sure, there are a handful of farms down there being Arthurs Seat but it is mostly goats and wineries….
Our species has evolved to the point of pressing the refresh button.
Post of the night!
Rosebud West I suspect will be v good for ON
I don’t think most people expected Hutchinson to win. However, it is somewhat surprising that she’s performing well and not falling behind One Nation (early on in the count) given media rhetoric and on the ground news saying One Nation’s campaign and support base was greater than expected.
ON is cooked. Fly Now Pay Later Hanson’s looking exactly like a billionaire’s puppet has taken the sting out of them.
refreshing on 3 tabs lol
Kevin reporting the there is a 2CP count in Waterfall Gully, One Nation 61% to the Liberals
LukeMsays:
Saturday, May 2, 2026 at 7:43 pm
Rosebud West I suspect will be v good for ON
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Are you still awaiting those pre-poll, absentee and postal votes?
I think your system has called it really a bit too early at 98.8% William! IND+Green looks about equal to LIB and even though ON will favour LIB, there is about 5% sloshing around with Legalise Cannabis and Sustainable Australia which might be the decider… I wouldn’t rule out the independent at all