The first of three by-elections in as many weeks will be held on Saturday for the Mornington Peninsula state seat of Nepean, where former deputy leader Sam Groth has called time on his brief parliamentary career rather than wait it out until the November election. This puts the Victorian Liberals under pressure from One Nation, with Labor declining to field a candidate in a seat where they fell 6.4% short at the 2022 election. As detailed in my by-election guide, the respective candidates are Mornington Peninsula Shire mayor Anthony Marsh for the Liberals and civil engineer Darren Hercus for One Nation. There has been no published polling that I’m aware of, but a report in the Herald Sun points to concern in the Liberal camp based on “the feelings on pre-poll” and “shit on the liver … about having to vote twice in 12 months”.
Both campaigns have faced internal difficulties, with the Herald Sun reporting concerns about the number of Liberal volunteers willing to come forward after local members were shut out of the preselection process. The Age reported the One Nation campaign committee “collapsed” in late February when two of its members resigned from the party, claiming state president Warren Pickering had advised Hercus to use a personal bank account to accept campaign donations, which would have violated the legal requirement for donations to go through a specified account. Pickering denied any such conversation took place, but The Age then reported a third former party member backing the account of the other two. Hercus said he had no knowledge of how donations were being managed and was paying most of the costs of his campaign on his credit card.
Also in the field of eight candidates is Tracee Hutchison, who has been endorsed by Independents for Mornington Peninsula, whose candidate at the federal election came within 2.3% of unseating the Liberals in Flinders after polling 21.2% of the primary vote. Rounding out the ballot paper are candidates from Legalise Cannabis, Libertarian Party (once the Liberal Democrats), Affordable Housing Now – Sustainable Australia (until recently just Sustainable Australia) and End Mass Migration (whose former status as the Companions and Pets Party might well raise eyebrows). The Libertarians have a how-to-vote card advising a second preference for One Nation and a third for Liberal, but the others have open tickets.
Nepean does not exactly fit the profile of the four South Australian seats One Nation won in March, which were distinctly more rural in character, but its demographics are not without promise for the party. By far its outstanding characteristic is that 23.8% of the population was aged 70 and over at the time of the last census, its closest rival on this count being Gippsland East on 20.3%. This is a cohort that has been running four points above average for One Nation in federal polling since the start of this year.
Analysis of the South Australian result reveals an even more reliable indicator of One Nation support is share of the adult population who finished year 12 or equivalent. The simple model 0.543 – 0.555x, where x is the percentage of residents aged over 18 who finished high school, explained 83% of the variation in One Nation support in South Australia. When applied to the relevant figure for Nepean, which ranks 71st out of the state’s 88 seats for educational attainment, this too suggests One Nation should punch about four points above its usual weight in a seat like Nepean.
The map below illustrates the variability on this score within an electorate where the median house price approaches $3 million around Portsea but barely cracks $800,000 further along the bayside. Applying the data at the suburban level to the educational qualifications model suggests One Nation could expect its vote share in the latter area to be twice as high, a point reflected in the the meagre 2% vote shares One Nation recorded around Portsea and Sorrento at the 2025 federal election.
How this translates in a context where Labor isn’t fielding a candidate, never mind enjoying the ascendancy it did at the South Australian election, is harder to say. Up for grabs is its 32.6% vote from 2022, when support for Victorian Labor was ten points higher than its current polling. While betting markets have the Liberals as short-priced favourites, it is within the realms of possibility that the homeless Labor vote will consolidate behind Tracee Hutchison while the One Nation exodus reduces the Liberals to third, a fate that became all too familiar to their candidates in South Australia. The likely result in that scenario would be a One Nation win on preferences from the Liberals, whose how-to-vote card has Hercus above Hutchison.
Good backgrounder.
My fear is older Labor voters leaning to ON with a primary or 2nd preference vote.
Shame on Labor for dodging this election and shame on Libs for preferencing ON above Hutchison.
“Affordable Housing Now (until recently Sustainable Australia) and End Mass Migration (whose former status as the Companions and Pets Party might well raise eyebrows)”
It occurs to me that one of the best things a group like GetUp could do, with their still large mailing lists and ability to generate visibility, is some amusing and memorable education about these microparties trying to farm votes with dodgy names (another example obviously being the proposal from the far right in Victoria to register a Free Palestine party that is just a front to direct preferences to One Nation).
If anyone has an in with GetUp, can I humbly request passing the idea along?
My favourite microparty name was Better Future for Our Children. They won a NSW Legislative Council seat in 1995 and hung on for nearly 8 years.
Kos Samaras has a post that echoes some of the above points:
https://x.com/KosSamaras/status/2049614537641623796
The liberal ads in this area pointing out that the ON candidate is wanting to privatise the Rosebud hospital should dampen the ON vote. Why the candidate said that without any prospect of attaining government demonstrates the amateur hour that is ON.
Conservative rural side of that electorate me thinks would be disgusted with what happened to Battin and with his replacement L Plater.
If this swings big on sat then libs are gonski with this leader later in the year.
“Affordable Housing Now (until recently Sustainable Australia)”
This isn’t accurate FYI, the party is still called Sustainable Australia Party, they’ve just added ‘Affordable Housing Now’ to the party name on the ballot paper which is now ‘Affordable Housing Now – Sustainable Australia Party’. You might want to edit this here and in the candidate listing on the Farrer By-Election page to make it clear that SAP has not in fact dropped ‘Sustainable Australia’ from its name.
the labor voters may strategically vote liberal to keep ne nation out
May as well move this here from the main thread…
I’ll open up this morning with my thoughts on Nepean, for what they’re worth, following on from reading Antony Green’s comprehensive write up written yesterday
Traditionally a very strong Liberal seat, I can’t see them missing the top two despite resentment over the candidate choice, backlash over losing Groth and the rise of One Nation
There should be enough votes between Labor voters, how many will go via the Greens?and Independent voters to get Hutchison into the top 2
The question is, what happens from there with preferences? You’d think that to get over the line Hutchison would almost need to be leading, I think she can be
I can see One Nation polling towards 20, coming from a mix of Labor and Liberal voters, Greens in the mid teens. Hutchison and the Liberals both around 30, with Hutchison a little in front
A strong preference flow from the Greens, and a weeker than expected One Nation to Liberal flow just gets Hutchison over the line with under 51% of the 2pp
It’ll be interesting to watch how it all unfolds
Probably a Liberal win.
Definitely True 7
Probably True 1
Probably False 1
Definitely False 5
7 false keys for opposition win.
I reckon the Libs will win. I reckon Samaras is getting more than a little carried away about how PHON-loving the population of Rosebud are going to be. Perhaps the voters of Frankston would be a bit that way inclined, but Frankston’s not in the electorate.
Sure, house prices are a bit lower in Rosebud than they are further down the peninsula. But Rosebud isn’t exactly a suburb filled with battlers. My impression is that it’s quite a sought-after area.
Arange: your “keys” predict Darren Hercus is relatively unlikely to become president of the United States. That’s… technically not wrong.
OK, serious post.
As mentioned up top: that 32.6% Labor vote has to go somewhere. If a lot of it goes to Hutchison (possibly via the Greens), she’s got a good chance of making the top two – I’m guessing quite a few of them voted for Ben Smith federally last year, so that’s plausible. Then it depends on how much of a gouge One Nation take from the Libs.
In the SA seat of Finniss (which is geographically and demographically quite similar to Nepean, complete with teal-ish independent), you can actually look at the scenario without Labor quite easily, because they ended up fourth. The 3cp there was Ind 40.4, Lib 32.6, ON 26.9, which was already pretty good for the independent. ON preferences then split pretty evenly – 54.8 Lib, 45.2 Ind. That was without a HTV favouring the Libs, but with a sitting Lib MP, so they cancel out to an extent. Based on that, if Hutchison leads the 3cp I reckon she’ll have a decent chance of winning.
Bird of paradoxsays:
Thursday, April 30, 2026 at 9:04 pm
“Arange: your “keys” predict Darren Hercus is relatively unlikely to become president of the United States. That’s… technically not wrong.”
My keys predict election results pretty much everywhere.
Even if you keep on insisting with 0 proof that they’re useless, you can’t honestly say that they don’t make elections more easy to work out.
You might say that they didn’t work in USA 2024.
That was Lichtman’s keys, not mine.
I don’t think I’ve heard any serious reasons not to use my keys that didn’t involve Allan Lichtman’s keys or the misleading truth that they’re slightly subjective.
Having to use your brain does not automatically mean they’re useless.
Have you ever used the keys?
Have you genuinely tried to understand how to use them?
Hutchison’s campaign does not seem to be noticeable, it’s hard to see how she can win even if there is a pathway to victory from Labor and Green voters and preferences.
@Rex
Labor has a long standing practice of not standing a candidate in by-elections for electorates that they don’t hold.
Coincidentally for this one it works quite well:
Saves money for the “real” election in November;
LNP or ON voters will get itchy and start to question why the promises aren’t being kept, between now and November;
A ON win would destabilise the LNP, possibly unseating Wilson before November;
The ON candidate will be hapless and show how bad a swing to ON would be on a state level;
All politics is local – if Marsh (LNP) gets in, he’ll resign from council and trigger a by-election, which may break the right wing councillor cabal that are neglecting the southern end of the peninsula (not really a Labor concern but handy nonetheless).
I was chatting with some Greens pamphlet people the other day and they said they are there to funnel to Tracee.
Casey Briggs – In a normal political world, the Liberal Party would be expecting a Nepean by-election win
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-01/nepean-by-election-analysis-casey-briggs/106625012
“Nepean is the oldest electorate in Victoria, with a median age of 53. It has a large number of retirees and one of the lowest workforce participation rates in the state.
While Nepean is not the sort of seat you would expect to elect a One Nation MP, every election and by-election that occurs this year tells us more about who is backing One Nation since its surge in the polls.”
I think erstwhile Labor voters would for the most part vote for Hutchinson ahead of the Liberals ahead of One Nation, yes. There will be some who’d preference One Nation ahead of the Libs though.
As noted above the Labor vote from last time has to go somewhere, and 33.3% is enough to guarantee a place in the final two. That said, word from those I know in Nepean is that the Hutchison campaign is much less visible than the Ben Smith one (not surprising as it’s had much less lead time). If she does too poorly on primaries to make the 3CP then the homeless Labor vote probably ends up with the Greens (either directly or via Hutchison preferences), but it’s hard to see the Greens winning a 2CP contest against either the Liberals or One Nation.
And there is a relatively poor area around Rosebud but it’s fairly concentrated in the west Rosebud/Capel Sound area – I’d expect One Nation would do well there but it’s only one or two booths.
I can’t see the ONP primary vote being any higher than about 31%.
I don’t think it would be easy for ONP to win with that sort of primary vote.
Why in God’s name did the Libs pref ON above the independent? Really? If ON represent an existential crisis to the Libs as many say, then all that does it legitimise it. Are they really so ‘anti-woke’ that a tealish candidate is worse for the Libs than ON?
I’ll have a stab: Comfortable Liberal win.
My prediction is the Liberals win. PHON will do okay in some booths, it’s hard to see them winning enough primaries to get over the line, wanting to privatise the Rosebud hospital was an own goal.
The Labor vote this time would be smaller than last time, mind you, given the swing against the government in the polls. AND this is a byelection, where the anti-government backlash is almost invariably even stronger than at a general election.
@Corleone
Because they’re dumb – slash – because Bev McArthur and co are the powers behind the throne in the VicLibs now and they are resolutely against anything tealish.
Even Matt Canavan understands the threat of ON eating the Coalition vote entirely, but the VicLibs are complete yahoos, and like the SA Libs appear hell-bent on providing the stepladder for ON to take seats off them.
Anyway, in this specific seat I doubt it will change anything, the Libs should make top 2 and win the seat, if they can’t win this one then I don’t know what seats they would still be favourite to hold in the entire state.
I don’t know anything about Napean electorate. However, based on WB and Kos writeup, I think Libs will hold the seat.
I hope the Teal wins and ON not in the top 2, but I don’t think that will happen.
I hope Labor voters solidly vote 1 for Teal, 2 for Green and preference Lib above ON. I would do that if I am residing in Napean electorate.
I snake needs to be completely defanged before it bites anyone with poison.
We have seen and experienced enough of Trump to know how dangerous ON is.
PHON won 4 seats in SA HOR only because SA Libs preferenced PHON.
Very disappointing that Libs and ON got together and preferenced each other here in Nepean. Makes it a very tough fight for our great independent candidate, Tracee Hutchison, I hope she can defy the odds but I suspect some Labor voters will go to Libs rather than Green or Ind. The Libs had well over 20 in blue shirts here today at Rosebud prepoll including Jess Wilson, Mathew Guy, James Patterson, Brad Battin.
Having lived and worked on the Mornington Peninsula, I am happy to provide some intel regarding Nepean.
Essentially Nepean covers the southern end of the Mornington Peninsula from Balnarring on the west across to Mount Martha and then all the way down to Flinders and Portsea. A mix of very wealthy areas, e.g. Portsea to grinding poverty in low s0cio-economic areas such as Tootagrook and Rosebud West…(renamed Capel Sound a few years ago) just a few bus stops north of ‘snooty’ Sorrento and Portsea.
Folks in Flinders hate outsiders but enjoy naturally the economic benefits of cashed up tourists and weekenders. When I worked for the Shire I strongly advocated for increased bus services from Frankston, Hastings and Mornington to ease traffic congestion but was continually met with resistance from the locals… who yet whined and bitched and moaned ab0ut the amount of traffic on weekends.
There is a considerable population of ‘cookers’ and ‘anti-vax’ folk in and around Red Hill between Portsea and Balnarring which caused no end of grief during the darker days of COVID lockdowns which probably would vote ON if not Liberal.
Previous MPs have generally been lazy and disinterested at the State level… biding their time for a potential higher calling in Canberra.
Economically Mornington Peninsula is unsustainable apart from some tourism and boutique wine operations. HMAS Cerberus the RAN training base provides some stability along with BlueScope Steel at Hastings. It is fast developing as a ‘commuter’ region to SE suburbs of Melbourne.
Hutchison for the win.
One Nation we ain’t!
Nepean will indicate that fact at the completion of voting.
Sticking with my guess, Hutchison to sneak over the line sparking some soul searching for the Liberals
Massive prepoll turnout over 50% voted already.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-02/victoria-nepean-by-election-mornington-peninsua/106631710
The VEC is actively making it as easy as possible to vote – I didn’t realise you could enrol on the day. What a contrast to what the US Republicans are doing to disenfranchise the “wrong” sort of voters.
I predict that this process will be disallowed should the Coalition return following the general later this year.
I know I am whistling in the wind, Napean voters please don’t ON in large numbers.
If I were in Nepean, I would be doing that. The Teal is the non-Right candidate with the best chance of winning, so Labor voters should go for them first, rather than the Green, who seems to have little or no chance. Green goes second. One Nation has a good chance of winning, so they have to go last, behind the Liberal at second last.
Nepean is a hard seat for One Nation to win. They have to devote their resources to getting out the older generation to vote, and even then they may be less successful than elsewhere because it is mostly better educated older voters out there. They need to focus on areas of lower socioeconomic status which is fairly sparse in those areas. Resentment on tourists and wastage on public spending (eg is there really a need for a public Rosebud hospital or to keep the Stony Point line open) needs to be a big focus.
I wish the Liberals well today.
I hope they utterly trash the Wankers, Whingers and Wreckers Party.
Final key update:
Definitely True 7
Probably True 2
Probably False 0
Definitely False 5
7 false keys for opposition win
Are the Liberals the opposition due to their status in goverment or goverment due to holiding the seat in terms of the keys?
Catprogsays:
Saturday, May 2, 2026 at 11:36 am
“Are the Liberals the opposition due to their status in goverment or goverment due to holiding the seat in terms of the keys?”
The “government”.
So if Labor were running, the “government” would be the opposition and the “opposition” would be the government.
… righto then.
How did the Liberal government of Nepean go in the mid-terms? Did their war against Hastings in 2022 count as a negative key, since they lost the territory of Balnarring?
Antony: https://antonygreen.com.au/2026-nepean-by-election-results/
Nepean District by-election
https://vec.vic.gov.au/voting/current-elections/nepean-by-election
“Missed the enrolment deadline?
What you can do
If you’ve changed your name, you’ll be on the roll with your old name. Please tell our staff your previous name at the voting centre.
If you’ve moved within or out of Nepean District and didn’t update your details in time, you’ll be on the roll under your old address. You must vote or we may send you a fine. Please tell our staff your old address when you get your name marked off at the voting centre. You should update your enrolment details for future elections.
If you moved into Nepean District from another district your name won’t be on the roll. You’re not eligible to vote in this by-election.
If you are enrolling for the first time, and have lived in Nepean District since 20 February this year, you can enrol on the spot in a voting centre. This is called a provisional vote. It will take longer to enrol at a voting centre, so please allow extra time. To provisionally enrol at a voting centre you must bring valid ID. This can be:
your Australian passport, driver licence or learner permit
a council rates notice that has your name and address
a recent electricity, gas or water bill that has your name and address.”
From that ABC article:
“Residents over the age of 18 living in Nepean who have not enrolled are also informed they may enrol and vote on the spot at any voting centre.
“As long as you’re in the queue by 6 o’clock, we will make sure that you’re able to cast your vote,” Mr Bluemmel said.”
So you can only provisionally vote if you are “enrolling for the first time” but if you’ve “moved into Nepean District from another district your name won’t be on the roll. You’re not eligible to vote in this by-election.” That’s a nuanced difference that a lot of people aren’t going to pick up.
I’ll be covering Nepean count alongside Tas LegCo counts here
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/05/legislative-council-2026-huon-and.html
And, that’s it. Let the counting begin!
Bird of paradoxsays:
Saturday, May 2, 2026 at 5:01 pm
”
I don’t think so;
State-wide, there was a swing away from Labor at the exact halfway point of the term.
A 2PP swing to the Libs in Nepean at the exact halfway point of the term would mean a true key
Timmy, no disrespect, but are you from the US? Your last comment seemed to suggest that.
New thread.
So Arange, who is going to win the seat? I’m having trouble following your keys. Which candidate?
Mabwmsays:
Saturday, May 2, 2026 at 6:07 pm
‘So Arange, who is going to win the seat? I’m having trouble following your keys. Which candidate?”
I’d say there’s about an 80% chance of the Liberal candidate winning.
If they don’t, I’m not sure whether the teal or the ONP candidate will win.