The monthly poll from Essential Research has Labor down a point to 30%, the Coalition steady on 24%, One Nation up a point to 25% (overtaking the Coalition for the first time in this series) and the Greens up a point to 11%, with a further 5% undecided. The Coalition continues to have its nose ahead of Labor on this pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has the Coalition up two to 49% and Labor up one to 47%, with the balance undecided. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 41% and steady at 51% disapproval, while Angus Taylor is down one on approval to 34% and up one on disapproval to 34%.
Further questions find 26% approving and 42% disapproving of the US and Israeli military action on Iran, with 34% approving and 26% disapproving of Australia’s response. Twenty-one per cent said they would support sending troops if requested by the US and Israel with 50% opposed; 32% supported and 35% opposed the government’s actual policy of sending weapons and equipment to countries like the United Arab Emirates; and 37% said they would support and 31% oppose offering refuge to displaced civilians.
Questions on international relationships find sentiment towards China softening considerably as compared with 2021: where 12% then felt Australia should get closer to China “in terms of diplomatic and trade relationships” compared with 51% for “become less close”, the respective numbers are now 21% and 26%. For the United States, “get closer” is down from 32% to 21% and “become less” close up from 14% to 34%. The Guardian’s report says the sample was 1067, and the field work dates were presumably last Wednesday to Monday.
The sometimes volatile weekly series from Roy Morgan is little changed this week, with Labor down half-a-point to 30%, the Coalition down half-a-point to 23%, One Nation up one to 22.5% and the Greens up half-a-point to 14%. Labor holds two-party preferred leads over the Coalition of 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, in from 55.5-44.5 last week, and 54-46 on previous election preferences, in from 54.5-45.5 The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1587.
Opinium Poll for the UK covering 29 April – 1 May (compared with their last one on 22-24 April).
https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/voting-intention-29th-april-2026/
Reform: 27% (-1)
Labour: 19% (=)
Conservative: 18% (+1)
Green: 15% (=)
Lib Dems: 12% (=)
Leadership Approval:
Keir Starmer: -44% (=)
Kemi Badenoch: -4% (+2)
Nigel Farage: -17% (+1)
Ed Davey: -2% (+2)
Zack Polanski: -12% (-3)
TM @ 9:25p
Atlas dgaf my man
Kharg Island is not as important as the Americans and the internet thinks. It is only the outlet terminal and the Iranians are able to turn off their oil their neighbours can’t (as they have already had to do that in the past). It will a death trap if the Americans attempt to take it.
Ed Davey is still the most popular party leader in Britain.
B. S. Fairman, what you and I know, doesn’t = what Trump just chooses to do.
Yep, I’m still of the opinion that if the US Marines try to do an Iwo Jima with Kharg Island the Iranians will turn it into an unsinkable firestorm.
Bezos Met Gala in NY is an abomination during these times. The theme slogan is “party like it is 1939”.
Understand that each Met Gala ticket could be anywhere between $100000 and $350000
Oh, they will take the Island. But then they are still ducks for ever short range drone and missile the Iranians have.
I certainly wouldn’t want TM determining holiday leave. That is possibly the shortest break in PB history.
Bludgeoned Westie
Put me down for Milthorpe
I’m on the fence about TM. The prospector aspect is a bit on the nose, particularly for someone who’s afraid to walk the street, but y’know, I’ve been led to believe that this site gets all sorts of characters, so I guess anything’s possible.
Confessionssays:
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 8:43 pm
There is absolutely Not A Chance Hormuz Opens while Iran realises the power they have to keep it closed. They are now in a situation where they can play the long game and just need to wait out Trump for a better deal than he’s offering.
===========================================
At least Nero got to fiddle while Rome burned. Trump just got to be played like a fiddle instead.
The Sloan Zone on the Nepean By-election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsXCZ7NE9XU
This Sloan character seems to be getting popular. Maybe I should start talking on Youtube in “Fairman’s Fair go”.
B. S. Fairmansays:
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 9:51 pm
This Sloan character seems to be getting popular. Maybe I should start talking on Youtube in “Fairman’s Fair go”
=======================================
Probably better than going with “Fairman’s BS”.
Bold assumption Entropy, I could see a youtube channel called “you’re a fucking idiot and so am I” being quite successful in our present idiocracy, if YT would allow it.
Omar Comin’says:
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 8:37 pm
SL children are literally crying in their prams
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/may/03/ai-datacentres-australia-opposition
___________________
I read this article, and got a distinct “wind farm syndrome” vibe from the interviewees – especially that there are numerous chemical, cleaning, and car mechanics businesses already there, and much closer to the school than the proposed data centre would be.
Omar Comin’says:
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 10:00 pm
Bold assumption Entropy, I could see a youtube channel called “you’re a fucking idiot and so am I” being quite successful in out present idiocracy, if YT would allow it.
======================================
You have a point. Have them log in on low expectations then exceed that and dazzle them.
Aye Bizzcan but how can you so coldly and logically cast aside the potential of parasitic data centres to act as a “sacrificial anode” for the anger of those predisposed to such woo? You wish to order their thinking when the path of less resistance is to distract them with something that actually sucks ass
Vensays:
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 9:12 pm
Channeling F.r.i.e.n.d.s,
WE ARE ON A BREAK!
_______________________
Don’t you worry about me Ven.
You just focus on getting your ON and Independent candidates right.
Entropysays:
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 9:39 pm
I certainly wouldn’t want TM determining holiday leave. That is possibly the shortest break in PB history.
_______________________
How’s my apology coming along ?
Did you finally manage to work out what she did wrong.
Trump is Nero and Caligula rolled into one.
Redbrodge
Labor. 31
PHON. 27
LNP. 22
Green. 13
2PP Lab 54 LNP. 46
Lab 55. ON. 45
Thanks Bob Lynch
Yet another poll that appears to show ON hurting the right overall
Herald Sun – Backroom Baz 03/05
Bike boy’ podcast in line for top gongs
When he was involved in a collision with a cyclist in 2013, then Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews would have had no idea people would still be talking about the Blairgowrie bungle more than a decade later.
Yet here we are, the infamous incident the subject of legal proceedings, a multitude of theories about who was driving the car that hit then teen Ryan Meuleman, and a podcast now in its second series. And could it soon be an award-winning podcast? It was recently short-listed in two categories at the 2026 Australian Audio Awards, for both Best Crime Podcast and Best Investigative Journalism Podcast. Watch this space
_______________________
To the person who mentioned Bike Boy this morning. Just thought I would let you know that the podcast is up for a couple of awards.
The only podcast i listen to is ‘Talking Birdies’ with Nick O’Hern and Mark Allen so can’t give an opinion, but it must be pretty good to be short listed.
For the hun to suggest that Andrews had no idea that they’d still be be talking about it more than a decade later is the height of irony, as though they don’t realize that he planned the whole thing and the dozen or so people in their tiny bubble (like nath) don’t realize they’ve been had.
Ven says:
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 9:24 pm
L-NP and ON members of parliament across Australia can have sexual related scandals. It doesn’t matter to Murdoch Press even a lit bit. They sometimes go to lengths to distract from those things. However, even if there is a whiff of a scandal on Labor side, Murdoch Press blows it out of proposition.
There is one poster, who brought to our notice extra marital affair of Shorten when he was minister in Gillard government.
But when it came to numerous scandals of L-NP ministers during ATM period, remained curiously silent.
__________________________________
That’s because Malcolm Turnbull stopped it with the famous Bonking Ban
and don’t forget, what happens in the prayer room stays in the prayer room
Taylormade @ #1372 Sunday, May 3rd, 2026 – 10:17 pm
What does independant mean? Is it similar to independent?
yabba says:
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 10:43 pm
Taylormade @ #1372 Sunday, May 3rd, 2026 – 10:17 pm
Vensays:
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 9:12 pm
Channeling F.r.i.e.n.d.s,
WE ARE ON A BREAK!
_______________________
Don’t you worry about me Ven
You just focus on getting your ON and Independant candidates right.
What does independant mean? Is it similar to independent?
____________________
They are much better than a garden variety independent – they get stuck into the minor irritating interconnected errors in the details
Isn’t that an indepedant?
OMG it’s like three AIs got together to ritualistically murder a joke
Finally. I was wondering when it was going to come out.
Kirsdarke at 9.46 pm
Mr Sloan Zone thinks Farley will win Farrer then unchain himself from Pauline’s grasp.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPH3J61_GV0
But one of his followers, @billydog1954 from Deniliquin, is far from convinced:
“Farley had a meet and greet at a local pub here in Deniliquin a few weeks back and maybe ten people turned up, him being the favorite is just a media beat up ,and I’ve heard he’s on the nose in Albury as well”.
The preferences clip from the Albury debate was replayed on The Two Barries podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3yHTCCcgNE
Mr Cassidy confirmed that the Libs are no hopers in Farrer based on his fieldwork.
Is it unusual that the ABC is showing the same episodes of two shows that was on at the same time yesterday.
On the plus side I have filled in the bits I missed yesterday due to being distracted by the election but it is just, well a bit odd
Taylormadesays:
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 9:25 pm
It has to be processed as a Public Holiday.
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
No it doesn’t.
Anyone who configured their payroll to pay the 27th as a public holiday* is just setting themselves up for problems. There are options other than RDO and public holiday.
Decades ago, the federal Public Service traded off a small increase in daily hours (which added up to the equivalent of five days per year) in return for time off on the three days between Christmas and New Year that aren’t Public Holidays or weekends (or both). These aren’t public holidays, they aren’t RDOs. Different agencies have a variety of names in their enterprise agreements and payroll configuration, usually varieties of “standdown” or “enterprise agreement” days, but one thing they don’t call then is public holidays. The point is, you are only eligible for single time if you have to work them for some reason, not p/h loading.
CFMEU can call them what they like on their RDO calendars, but governments decide what public holidays actually are.
* outside of NSW, ACT and WA, where it was, actually, a Public Holiday, as gazetted by their governments.
Redbrodge
Labor. 31
PHON. 27
LNP. 22
Green. 13
Labor cannot win an election with any legitimacy or mandate, in majority or minority, with PHON and Coalition having 49 percent of the combined primary vote, with both these parties well to the right of Tony Abbott.
Albanese and his pathetic party are going the way of the thylacine, so they deserve as paper tigers of the first order.
If they really cared about democracy, they should be first ones to demand a referendum for proportional representation.
The obsessional hatred of Dan Andrews by the Right and their
influencer organisationsnews outlets is quite bizarre. An obsession obviously not shared by the Victorian people, who kept voting for him.Timmy you stupid bot ass bot, read dem 2pp and weep. As ALABAMA would say if his pathetically weak ass had the guts to show up, “We’re Coming”. Well guess what. Your bitch ass loser poorly educated deplorables are in fact coming, to split the right wing vote and lubricate the wheels of the ALP election winning juggernaut as usual. Eat a bag of dicks. Omar out.
If natural justice prevailed, Dictator Dan should spend the rest of his days in exile on Heard Island under house arrest. It would give him an idea of how people felt during the world record duration of lockdown in Melbourne.
This will go down as very dark period in Victorian history, when ON/LNP take over Victoria this November, the socialist scum will not get their hands on the reins of power again there for over a generation.
Why the whingefest about the Anzac Monday public holiday? I worked it (in WA), and when my pay drops in on Tuesday arvo I’ll have eight hours at penalty rates. Score.
Someone else 7.
I calculate Labor 2PP as about 31+6.5+0+11+4 = 52.5. About one quarter of One Nation preferences go to Labor. Green preferences go solidly to Labor, about 85%. The 7% for Someone Else would mostly be Teal or Teal-like candidates, the One Nation vote having absorbed most of the remaining far right vote, so it’s probably more than the 4/7 that I’ve assumed.
Taylormadesays:
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 10:20 pm
Entropysays:
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 9:39 pm
I certainly wouldn’t want TM determining holiday leave. That is possibly the shortest break in PB history.
_______________________
How’s my apology coming along ?
=====================================
How would I know?
I didn’t even know you were composing one.
Timmysays:
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 11:22 pm
If natural justice prevailed, Dictator Dan should spend the rest of his days in exile on Heard Island under house arrest. It would give him an idea of how people felt during the world record duration of lockdown in Melbourne.
=============================================
People got their say at the election after Covid. It was called “Dan Slide II: Slide Even Harder”.
It was a total rejection of Cooker ideology by the people of Victoria.
@Steve777
That 2PP assumes Liberals finish second. But your remainders – 2% from Green, 3% from others – only brings them level with ON. An ALP v ON 2PP might look quite different.
So….. WFT is this crap from Trump that the Iranians have “not paid a big enough price” ????
This is very seriously deranged shit …… and we have parasites like Poorline and Gina daH Hutt seem to love everything this guys says or does trying to further embed themselves in our politics. If the Indie can take it I would rather the Libs win Farrer … that’s how weird the world is getting. 🙁
Yah … the still bubbling mindless hatred of Dan Andrews by cookers and their ilk is very sad.
I guess the only good thing about One Nation being at 22% of the primary vote is that Labor could lose upwards of 4-5% of their own primary vote and still get a larger majority than in the 1987 election.
TBM you and I are on the same page
@DPR of CBR
Respondent-allocated polls have Labor going even better against One Nation than they do against the Coalition. And that seemed to be the case for the SA Election.
Greens and Independents tend to put ON even lower than the Libs/Nats in preferences. And also there’s a significant amount of Liberal voters that would prefer Labor above ON. Not a majority, but enough. The far-right Libs are already voting for ON first, what’s left of them might not like them that much.
Just a week or so after signing a security agreement with Azerbaijan, President Zelenskyy is visiting its Caucasus neighbour, Armenia:
“Zelensky arrives in Yerevan for European Political Community Summit, his first visit to Armenia”
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-yerevan-for-european-summit-on-his-first-visit-to-armenia/
This is an intriguing development in the Caucasus, if both these countries end up aligning with Ukraine in preference to Russia.
Kirsdarkesays:
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 11:55 pm
@DPR of CBR
Respondent-allocated polls have Labor going even better against One Nation than they do against the Coalition. And that seemed to be the case for the SA Election.
Greens and Independents tend to put ON even lower than the Libs/Nats in preferences.
– – – – – – – – –
Fair play on that, K. I was really just pointing out the “hidden” assumption in Steve777’s maths,