Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

Two new federal polls are both little changed on last time, with one recording an improved view of relations with China.

The monthly poll from Essential Research has Labor down a point to 30%, the Coalition steady on 24%, One Nation up a point to 25% (overtaking the Coalition for the first time in this series) and the Greens up a point to 11%, with a further 5% undecided. The Coalition continues to have its nose ahead of Labor on this pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has the Coalition up two to 49% and Labor up one to 47%, with the balance undecided. Anthony Albanese is up two on approval to 41% and steady at 51% disapproval, while Angus Taylor is down one on approval to 34% and up one on disapproval to 34%.

Further questions find 26% approving and 42% disapproving of the US and Israeli military action on Iran, with 34% approving and 26% disapproving of Australia’s response. Twenty-one per cent said they would support sending troops if requested by the US and Israel with 50% opposed; 32% supported and 35% opposed the government’s actual policy of sending weapons and equipment to countries like the United Arab Emirates; and 37% said they would support and 31% oppose offering refuge to displaced civilians.

Questions on international relationships find sentiment towards China softening considerably as compared with 2021: where 12% then felt Australia should get closer to China “in terms of diplomatic and trade relationships” compared with 51% for “become less close”, the respective numbers are now 21% and 26%. For the United States, “get closer” is down from 32% to 21% and “become less” close up from 14% to 34%. The Guardian’s report says the sample was 1067, and the field work dates were presumably last Wednesday to Monday.

The sometimes volatile weekly series from Roy Morgan is little changed this week, with Labor down half-a-point to 30%, the Coalition down half-a-point to 23%, One Nation up one to 22.5% and the Greens up half-a-point to 14%. Labor holds two-party preferred leads over the Coalition of 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, in from 55.5-44.5 last week, and 54-46 on previous election preferences, in from 54.5-45.5 The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1587.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 thoughts on “Federal polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 29
1 2 29
  1. From the previous thread. UAE just left OPEC.

    They want to produce more oil than OPEC allows. My read is that they can see the end of oil and want to bank the cash.

    When a cartel breaks apart there’s an awful lot of price fluctuation as the new market equilibrium is sought.

  2. G says:
    Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 10:59 pm

    Alright. Deep breath. First public draft.

    I made this.

    Elections Australia
    https://electionsaustralia.org/
    For a single, rigorous, transparent and innovative Australian election management body.

    ———
    I have feedback but wanted to wait until you’re online. My days are pretty busy at the moment so I might not get to PB for several days.

    So maybe if you could give a quick explanatory note on your aims and the Web tool you’re using that’d be a good start.

  3. Cartoons Europe

    Matt

    Chapatte

    Kal

    Moreton Morland

    Andy Bunday: @bundaycartoons on #KeirStarmer #MorganMcSweeney #McSweeney #Mandelson #EpsteinFiles

    Patrick Blower

    Ben Jennings

    Guy Venables

    Jonsey

    Banx

    Tom Gauld

  4. The Liberacefication of the Oval Office seems to be getting more intense. How anyone can think this is tasteful is beyond me.

  5. Mostly Interestedsays:
    Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 6:22 am
    From the previous thread. UAE just left OPEC.

    They want to produce more oil than OPEC allows. My read is that they can see the end of oil and want to bank the cash.

    When a cartel breaks apart there’s an awful lot of price fluctuation as the new market equilibrium is sought.

    This long-time US ally turns to Russia, China after no help on Iran war fallout
    Despite the heavy economic wounds inflicted by the American-Israeli war against Iran, the Trump administration has offered no meaningful support to one of its oldest partners in Asia.

    https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/thailand-turns-russia-china-after-us-offers-no-help-on-iran-war-fallout-2902918-2026-04-28

    Struggling under the weight of skyrocketing fuel prices and fertiliser shortages triggered by the Iran war, Thailand is doing what any pragmatic nation would: looking for help wherever it can find it. The Donald Trump administration just offered little more than advice to “buy American oil,” Bangkok is now reaching out to Washington’s arch rivals, Russia and China.

    In an interview with The Washington Post, Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow laid bare his government’s growing disillusionment: despite the heavy economic wounds inflicted by the American-Israeli war against Iran, the Trump administration has offered no meaningful support to one of its oldest partners in Asia.
    Instead of outstretched hands from its traditional ally, Bangkok is now actively seeking help from Moscow and Beijing to keep its economy afloat amid soaring fuel prices, fertiliser shortages, and stranded vessels.

    A LONG-STANDING ALLY FEELS OVERLOOKED
    Sihasak admitted that the US is likely to recognise the collateral damage inflicted on countries like Thailand, which depends heavily on stable Middle Eastern energy routes. Yet, he noted, there has been no proactive engagement. “They haven’t come out to talk to us about how they can help. They haven’t approached us directly saying, ‘Oh, we understand that you have to endure the impact, and we can help you out,'” he told The WaPo.

    The sole gesture from the Trump administration, according to the minister, came in the form of a suggestion during a prime-time address: countries facing fuel shortages should simply purchase American oil and gas, with the US President emphasising that the United States has “plenty” to offer. For a nation already under pressure due to soaring global prices and logistical bottlenecks, this advice felt more like a commercial pitch than the supportive hand of an ally.

    Slowly but surely US allies stopped believing in US.
    Everything Trump touches dies.

  6. Fess, may just be me but looking at the decoration (loosely speaking) of the Oval Office reminds me of the state of some peoples Tattoos these days.

  7. World News & Politics Patrol:

    UAE announces it will leave Opec: https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/04/28/uae-announces-it-will-leave-opec/

    US ambassador to Ukraine to step down over differences with Trump: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-ambassador-ukraine-step-down-over-differences-with-trump-ft-reports-2026-04-28/

    Ukraine says it shot down 33,000 Russian drones in March, a monthly record: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-drone-attacks-oil-06edbc9666fe0681fa0930affc475e9b

    Greece to ban anonymity on social media: https://www.euractiv.com/news/greece-to-ban-anonymity-on-social-media/

    Block people with anxiety and ADHD from claiming benefits, says Tony Blair: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/28/block-people-with-anxiety-adhd-claiming-benefits-tony-blair/

    CBS News’s 60 Minutes cut out large portions of its interview with President Trump in which he rambled about his ballroom, how hot his Secret Service agents are, and how the No Kings protests are just like the Ku Klux Klan: https://newrepublic.com/post/209590/trump-rants-edited-out-60-minutes-interview-cbs-shooting

    Trump slams Merz, Germany after chancellor’s Iran ‘humiliation’ remarks: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5853795-merz-criticizes-us-iran-strategy/

    King Charles: The hidden messages in his speech to Congress: https://www.politico.eu/article/king-charles-us-congress-speech-hidden-messages/

    Democrats Introduce Bill To More Than Triple The Minimum Wage: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/house-democrats-25-minimum-wage_n_69f0b51ce4b0093689a9cb3d

    Trump Hit by Devastating Poll as Voters Say They’re Getting Poorer: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-hit-by-devastating-poll-as-voters-say-theyre-getting-poorer/

    Senate Republican on Trump ballroom push: ‘We have $39 trillion of debt’: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5852331-rick-scott-trump-ballroom-national-debt/amp/

    ICE Agent Who Shot Dead Unarmed Mom Quietly Reassigned as FBI Probe Stalls: https://www.thedailybeast.com/ice-agent-jonathan-ross-who-shot-dead-umarmed-mom-renee-good-quietly-reassigned-as-fbi-probe-stalls/

    Secret Service agent who took bullet in Trump assassination attempt may have been hit by ‘friendly fire’: https://news.sky.com/story/secret-service-agent-who-took-bullet-in-trump-assassination-bid-may-have-been-hit-by-friendly-fire-13537624

    US to issue passports featuring Trump’s picture to commemorate America’s 250th anniversary: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/28/politics/us-trump-passport

    US agents raid 22 Minnesota sites in social-welfare fraud probe: https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-agents-raid-22-minnesota-sites-social-welfare-fraud-probe-2026-04-28/

    General Motors says it expects $500 million tariff refund after SCOTUS ruling: https://abcnews.com/Business/general-motors-expects-500-million-tariff-refund-after/story?id=132447958

    Oil giant BP announces huge rise in profits in first results since Iran war: https://news.sky.com/story/oil-giant-bp-announces-huge-rise-in-profits-in-first-results-since-iran-war-13537444

  8. King Charles gave OHFUCKUS a big tick today!

    Oh, and the Cooker’s hero Desi Freeman had a lot of Kiddie Pics on his devices. Nice bloke!

  9. HH DP

    ICE Agent Who Shot Dead Unarmed Mom Quietly Reassigned as FBI Probe Stalls: https://www.thedailybeast.com/ice-agent-jonathan-ross-who-shot-dead-umarmed-mom-renee-good-quietly-reassigned-as-fbi-probe-stalls/

    Secret Service agent who took bullet in Trump assassination attempt may have been hit by ‘friendly fire’: https://news.sky.com/story/secret-service-agent-who-took-bullet-in-trump-assassination-bid-may-have-been-hit-by-friendly-fire-13537624

    No Kidding!!!

  10. This article is a couple of days old, so may have been linked previously. Kos Samaras on our bouncy polls.

    We are not in a normal political period. We are in the middle of a structural realignment and the tools built for normal periods, including the habit of reading each poll as a discrete verdict on the state of political play, are not fit for purpose.

    If you want to understand what One Nation’s vote is doing, you have to stop staring at the weekly numbers and start looking at the shape of the thing beneath them.

    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2026/04/27/polling-politics-realignment

  11. Daily Kos
    Republican Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Katie Britt of Alabama, and Eric Schmitt of Missouri held a news conference on Monday evening at the U.S. Capitol to say they have introduced legislation that would authorize $332 million in taxpayer funds to build the ballroom. Graham said rest of the project’s estimated $400 million cost would come from private donors, and would be used for “buying china and ⁠stuff like that.”

    “I’d like the vote as soon as possible to accelerate what America needs: A secure facility for the president and others to meet in, to have a good time, to ​enjoy themselves without putting the nation at risk,” Graham said Monday.

  12. DPR of CBRsays:
    Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 10:09 pm
    Question for SL on those liquid fuel reserves postings. How often is the average imports figure updated?

    I note our petrol reserves have risen over the last 2 weeks from ~30 days to 44 days (the others have remained relatively static). Is that because the numerator (fuel stored) has increased, or because the denominator (average imports) has decreased because more recent figures are being used in the calculation?
    __________________

    The liquid fuel stock (MSO) statistics get updated weekly (before the war it was monthly, iirc):
    https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/security/australias-fuel-security/minimum-stockholding-obligation/statistics

    Import data is on p. 10 of this monthly publication:
    https://www.energy.gov.au/energy-data/australian-petroleum-statistics

    The minimum stockholding obligation (MSO) numbers are for days of stock at the normal rate of consumption (unlike the separate IEA measure which is currently 49 days of net imports).
    https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/oil-stocks-of-iea-countries

    Thus, for the MSO numbers (shown below), the numerator will be fuel stored and the denominator will be consumption (not imports).

    Date … Gasoline … Kerosene … Diesel
    Feb ………. 39 ……………. 31 ………….. 33
    10/3 ……… 37 ……………. 29 ………….. 30
    17/3 ……… 38 ……………. 30 ………….. 30
    24/3 …….. 39 ……………. 30 ………….. 30
    31/3 ……… 39 ……………. 30 ………….. 29
    7/4 ………. 38 ……………. 28 ………….. 31
    14/4 …….. 46 ……………. 30 ………….. 31
    21/4 …….. 44 ……………. 30 ………….. 33

    I’m guessing petrol stocks have risen in the last two weeks because there has been spot cargoes bought to top up supplies which ordinarily wouldn’t have been bought.

    There’s more data here (I’ve heard Albo enters it himself):
    https://www.pmc.gov.au/domestic-policy/fuel-supply-taskforce/public-information-fuel-supply

  13. The “F*ck your feelings” people suddenly have emotions about harsh rhetoric

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/4/28/800029332/community/the-fck-your-feelings-people-suddenly-have-emotions-about-harsh-rhetoric/

    ICE has had 16 shootings in the last year, killing 4 American Citizens: Renee Good, Alex Pretti, Ruben Ray Martinez and Keith Porter.

    33 people died in ICE custody in 2025 and an additional 17 have died so far this year. That’s 50 people in a year and a half, compared to 67 for all 8 years of Obama’s 2 terms, and 26 deaths for Biden’s 4 years.

    Yes, people are dying.

  14. Republican Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Katie Britt of Alabama, and Eric Schmitt of Missouri held a news conference on Monday evening at the U.S. Capitol to say they have introduced legislation that would authorize $332 million in taxpayer funds to build the ballroom…

    The myth that the politically right is fiscally responsible is just that a myth. They hate spending on causes and people they don’t like and which doesn’t benefit them or their mates – public health, public education, the unemployed, etc. However, for causes and people they like, which helps them politically, go for it! It’s a joke. “Three Republican Senators walk into a bar…”

  15. It’s too late for Trump to listen to sound advice, but will other US lawmakers (and, in the runup to the midterms this November, potential lawmakers) take notice and do what they can to turn the US ship of state around and point it in the direction of defence rather than offence, law rather than anarchy, and independence rather than genocide?

    “King Charles praises Nato and urges defence of Ukraine in key speech during Trump visit:
    Remarks marking 250th anniversary of American independence tell US lawmakers: ‘The actions of this great nation matter’”
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/apr/28/king-charles-speech-congress

    King Charles has extolled the importance of Britain’s “special relationship” with the United States in a speech to US Congress that made pointed reference to the importance of Nato, the defence of Ukraine and the climate crisis…

    … And he urged “unyielding resolve” in the cause of “Ukraine and her most courageous people” in order to “secure a truly just and lasting peace”.

  16. Revolutionary Quislingsays:
    Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 6:57 am
    Fess, may just be me but looking at the decoration (loosely speaking) of the Oval Office reminds me of the state of some peoples Tattoos these days.

    Another analogy is “Nero fiddles while Rome burns”

  17. The assistance we could give to beleaguered victims of military aggression (such as Ukraine, at the hands of Russia) is only possible because we have a military industry which is sustained by deals such as this:

    “Australia to sell fleet of Bushmasters to Netherlands, locks in commitment to build 268 more for itself”
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-26/netherlands-buys-bushmaster-fleet-australia-commits-to-more/106608000

    Bushmasters have attracted significant international attention after the Australian government gifted more than 100 to Ukraine for use in the war with Russia.

    The government has confirmed that the Bushmasters now scheduled for production were in addition to vehicles already being built to replace those sent to Ukraine.

    “Through this $1.2 billion investment, the Albanese government is sustaining local jobs, strengthening our national defence industry and delivering a capability that protects the lives of Australian Defence Force personnel,” Mr Marles said.

    Ukraine is very glad that we, along with its other allies, have military industries such as this, to be of material assistance to them in their time of need. They’ve developed a formidable defence industry of their own, mind you!

  18. Inflation day is judgement day today for labor shhhhhhhhhhh.

    37% up already under labor and still electricity prices/inflation and interest rates will keep rising look at this ….

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_MRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Frenewable-energy-economy%2Faustralian-energy-regulator-approves-higher-network-charges-to-pay-for-cost-of-poles-and-wires%2Fnews-story%2F2d1d24ef72d9104e51ca17e8385f6c34&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=ULTRALOW-Segment-2-SCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append

    But renewables are cheaper they spew!

    Double digit average increases in two states, more coming.

    The poor and middle class smashed.
    Notice Albo has fled to WA far away from the East Coast today for the dreadful inflation stats coming out.Piker!

  19. Ven, Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 7:39 am:

    US and Israel unleash hell on Iranian people and US allies are slowly but surely decoupling from US alliance.

    That shows how the broader West is still governed by the desire to do the right thing. Pity that most of the Global South hasn’t similarly decoupled itself from Russia over its much more bloody ‘hell’ that it has unleashed on Ukraine.

  20. Good to see that there are protests planned in support of the NDIS on 9 May, hopefully they get big turnouts

    Interesting move from the UAE, the beginning of the end for OPEC? The sooner we become less reliant on oil the better

    Why is our King sucking up to Trump? Time to become a Republic imo

  21. Angus, yesterday and today, is trying to run this line:

    We keep our refineries in the country, we don’t have our refineries exporting fuel which is what (Energy Minister) Chris Bowen had one of them doing (ABC Live)

    He is referring to what the media calls dirty fuel. Between 15/12/25 and early last month a small amount of (high sulfur) fuel was being exported because it didn’t comply with the new fuel standards – those standards have been temporarily relaxed.

    This was Josh Wilson’s response yesterday to Angus’ ‘plan’:

    Angus Taylor was trying to claim credit for the fact that we only have two refineries. I mean, if you left a bloke looking after your chicken coop with six chickens in it, and you came back and he wanted you to pat him on the back, because there’s still two chickens there, you’d say, well done, Angus, good job.

    https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/wilson/transcripts/doorstep-beckenham-western-australia

  22. Oakeshott Country says:
    Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 9:30 pm

    GoW
    I think Paterson takes a BW view that the PRC is such a shithole that the Taiwanese will never reach an accord with the mainland
    (Of course there is less urgency to an accord while the US and its sycophants give an unstated guarantee to Taiwan)

    Meanwhile, in the real world, the KMT leader has met with Xi
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0krnz7mmmjo

    I would never refer to China as a ‘shithole’.

    I do believe China is run by a murderous, genocidal regime which actively works against liberal and democratic values at home and abroad, including most recently jailing someone for demonstrating for democracy… in Australia.

    I am profoundly grateful for the magnificent technical and industrial advances China is making with respect to battery technology. These will change the world for the better.

    The Taiwanese have Hong Kong, the Philippines, Vietnam, India and Bhutan to observe as case studies of Chinese domestic and international brutalism. Doubtless the majority of Taiwanese would prefer to remain a real democracy. They know that if they poke the dragon in the eye with a burnt stick they will be punished. So they will probably try to continue to try to make it too hard for China easily to conquer them while at the same time trying not to motivate China so to do.

    As for the recent KMT/China side discussions, China has always reward parties and individuals in Taiwan that favour closer ties and punish parties and individuals that favour independence.

    It is in Taiwan’s interests to maintain good trading relations with China. Every time a Taiwanese leader indicates a yen for independence there are swingeing trade punishments inflicted on Taiwan. You would not want to be a pineapple farmer in Taiwan.

    IMO, the best hope for Taiwan is to struggle along with some sort of BAU.

    One straw in that wind is that China is set to lose 60 million people over the next decade. How this will affect Chinese government behaviours is difficult to predict. But it may demotivate China from military adventurism.

    That said, China is in the process of the largest peace time naval build in world history. It is adding the equivalent of the RAAF to its airforce every year. It has the largest army in the world. And its missile concentrations off the Taiwan Strait are increasing year by year.

    All of which seems to motivate OC to rush to the ramparts to try to personally offend someone who criticizes the worst elements of Chinese governance.

    Go figure.

  23. Hard Being Green says:
    Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 7:45 am

    Interesting move from the UAE, the beginning of the end for OPEC? The sooner we become less reliant on oil the better

    If the NDIS protests work well enough it could well be ON that has the balance of power in the next House. ON will destroy the NDIS altogether. Enjoy!

    You can’t beat a Greens for policy depth.

    OPEC exists to keep the price of oil high by limiting global oil supply. The UAE breaking ranks means more oil will become available which will reduce the price which will reduce the motivation to transition to renewables.

    How is the Greens defence and national security policy review coming along?

  24. New Boy @7.42am
    The ‘Global South’ lap up the smash capitalisation, revolutionary rhetoric of Russia et el.
    It will only de-couple from Russia when the massive inflow of western aid, dries up.
    It is interesting that any major and devastating event which affects ‘The Global South’ – the first call is to where, when and how much will the First World contribute to deal with the event.

  25. Encore -for fed labors governments renewable energy disaster heres more inflation as wind farm policy is failing….

    https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/labor-considers-emergency-support-for-struggling-wind-projects-20260422-p5zq7l

    Private enterprise does not want to know about Wind farms as they do not have the honey pit of taxpayers money to prop up labors renewble inflation disaster.

    No buyers for the power err that’s a flesh wound!

    Zealots on here say a 37% increase in elec prices and more gov renewable spending increases coming are not inflationary!fed gov spending is included in Inflation reading.That will feature today on horror inflation stats coverage.

    No Albo you cannot hide in my bunker today!

  26. The wild ride of 2026 continues unabated.

    Sigh……….

    Meanwhile the dry and glorious conditions in my neck of woods, will finally see some rain on Sunday. And we do need the rain, but the weather has been ever so nice.

  27. Macca RB says:
    Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 7:57 am

    New Boy @7.42am
    The ‘Global South’ lap up the smash capitalisation, revolutionary rhetoric of Russia et el.
    It will only de-couple from Russia when the massive inflow of western aid, dries up.

    Global foreign aid is undergoing a massive contraction ATM.

  28. The Liberacefication of the Oval Office
    ———————————
    That model plane in the photo – is that the one the Saudis are giving Trump?

  29. Re Confessions @6:39.

    The Liberacefication of the Oval Office seems to be getting more intense. How anyone can think this is tasteful is beyond me.

    The next President, whoever that might be, will surely rip all of that glitter out.

  30. “NDIS protests”?

    https://ubudfamilyexperience.com/ndis-participants/

    “Set amongst the lush rice paddies of Ubud, Empathy School is led by internationally recognised holistic educators, offering a learning experience that weaves together emotional intelligence, cultural awareness, creative expression and outdoor exploration.
    And the best part? Your child’s experience may be fully covered by their NDIS plan.”

    Defending the indefensible…

  31. Double encore…

    Bowen subsidies wealthy on electricity prices via solar rebates,battery and novated leasing taxpayer subsidies whilst screwing lower and middle classes with massive inflationary power bill hikes.
    This causes interest rate rises as well and ironically higher interest rates are making wind power uneconomic as in previous article today.
    A self inflicted crazy labor fed gov policy a negative feedback loop.

    ONE NATION SAYS THANKYOU.

    Btw interest rate rises 15 already under hard labor.

    Jimbob in the budget needs to reintroduce elec rebates to help the poor.Blowing out fed gov budget further.

  32. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 7:54 am
    Hard Being Green says:
    Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 7:45 am

    Interesting move from the UAE, the beginning of the end for OPEC? The sooner we become less reliant on oil the better

    If the NDIS protests work well enough it could well be ON that has the balance of power in the next House. ON will destroy the NDIS altogether. Enjoy!

    You can’t beat a Greens for policy depth.

    OPEC exists to keep the price of oil high by limiting global oil supply. The UAE breaking ranks means more oil will become available which will reduce the price which will reduce the motivation to transition to renewables.

    How is the Greens defence and national security policy review coming along?

    ___________

    It will be sadly ironic if the actions of The Greens contribute to losing the Crown Jewels, aka the Balance of Power, to One Nation.

    I think Larissa Waters is wise to the risk. The two male ex-pollies and their cheer squad, not so much.

  33. Essential poll:

    Labor 30, Coalition 24, One Nation 25, Green 11, undecided 5, Someone Else 5.

    Give 25% of One Nation, 85% of Green, 60% of Someone Else to Labor —> 48.6%.

    Ignore the 5% undecided, so divide the result by 0.95 to get Labor on 51.2%(assumes undecided will split like everyone else). Round to 51%.

    Margin of error is 3% on a sample size of 1,067.

  34. Bizzcan are you suggesting none of the 300,000 potential participants who will lose / won’t get access to the NDIS didn’t require the assistance? Some will argue the fringe cases, others will argue for those who need support

    Greens hitting 11 in Essential is pretty equivalent on them hitting 14 in Morgan. Big results coming in the UK that will hopefully give us a kick along here

    Off to work, have a great day All

  35. When Labor can win 88 seats with 31.1% of the primary vote, that’s when you know that the diversification of parties, and independents are disproportionately killing the conservative side of politics.

  36. Bizzcan says:
    Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 8:17 am
    “NDIS protests”?

    https://ubudfamilyexperience.com/ndis-participants/

    “Set amongst the lush rice paddies of Ubud, Empathy School is led by internationally recognised holistic educators, offering a learning experience that weaves together emotional intelligence, cultural awareness, creative expression and outdoor exploration.
    And the best part? Your child’s experience may be fully covered by their NDIS plan.”

    Defending the indefensible…

    ___________

    I find this sickening. Little difference between this and gold-plating everything in your living room on the public teat.

  37. SLsays:
    Wednesday, April 29, 2026 at 7:24 am

    The liquid fuel stock (MSO) statistics get updated weekly

    – – – – – – – – –
    Thanks for the data, links and corrections (consumption v imports). Very helpful 🙂

  38. Gareth Evans – Recapturing the decency dimension of Australian foreign policy

    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/04/466037-2/

    “To be a good international citizen is, essentially, to be seen to be a decent country – not just wholly inward-looking and self-interested, but a country that others respect, trust, are happy to deal with and want to emulate. One that genuinely cares about poverty, peacekeeping, human rights atrocities, health epidemics, environmental catastrophes, weapons proliferation and other problems afflicting people very often in places far from our own shores, and very often having little or no direct or immediate impact on our own security or prosperity. What the great Australian international relations scholar, Hedley Bull, described as “purposes beyond ourselves”.

    For those hard-headed cynics who view all this as just boy-scout stuff – optional extras, not the real business of national government – my answer has always been that it is not just a moral imperative to so act. The national interest returns are harder than just warm inner glows. There is a clear “soft power” reputational return. There is a reciprocity benefit: in diplomacy, as in life generally, if I take your problems and interests seriously, you are that much more likely to help me solve and advance mine. And the third return is simply helping get difficult stuff done. On global public goods issues like climate change, where the whole world, including us, ultimately benefits from effective collective action, but where the national costs for many players might seem for a long time to outweigh the benefits, the more states that have a cooperative, collective, good-international-citizenship mindset, the better the chance of success.

    Against the benchmarks that matter most, Australia’s overall record as a good international citizen has been patchy at best, lamentable at worst, and presently not what it could and should be.

    On overseas aid, we have been the worst-performed of any rich-country donor in terms of the decline in our generosity over the last five decades, with a current official development assistance (ODA) commitment of just 0.19 per cent gross national income (GNI), against the OECD target level of 0.7 per cent. Of course we have budgetary stress, but one can’t help but be wistful about the difference that would be made by the diversion to this quintessential soft power enterprise of just a tiny proportion of the eye-watering hundreds of billions being devoted to the wholly misconceived AUKUS submarine project.

    In meeting our responsibilities to refugees and asylum seekers, our record has been at times in the past a very proud one, but in recent years, on both sides of politics since Tampa, little short of shameful. On human rights generally, where what happens at home very much matters abroad – nobody likes a hypocrite – our record remains at best mixed, and is seen as such internationally.

    Neither our Prime Minister nor Foreign Minister are given to making big, visionary conceptual statements, but they could do better than they have done so far in this space. Penny Wong says she doesn’t disagree with the concept of good international citizenship, as specifically embraced by the Hawke-Keating and Rudd-Gillard Labor governments in the past, but prefers to use the language of “constructive internationalism”. That phrase, however, implies little more than a commitment to multilateral institutional process, without any real hint as to the ends to which that process should be directed. Anthony Albanese’s own preferred shtick of “progressive patriotism”, while no doubt undeserving of Samuel Johnson’s famous riposte to a more cynical earlier user of the second p-word, clearly conveys no sense of commitment to any particular international causes or values.”

  39. It’s time to tax gas exports in the national interest

    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/04/a-25-tax-on-gas-exports-is-a-necessary-second-best/

    “Instead, offshore gas is meant to pay the petroleum resource rent tax, but it is poorly designed. Indeed, as recently as 2023, the Treasury wrote that so far no LNG project had ever paid any PRRT; not even in 2022 when gas prices shot up by four or five times, in response to the cutting-off of Russian gas supplies.

    According to the investment advisory firm, Stocks Down Under: “Australia captures less than 30 per cent of profits from its fossil fuel companies, compared to 75-90 per cent in most comparable resource-exporting nations”. Australia Institute research shows that between 2015-16 and 2023-24, the revenue from Australian gas exports has increased more than five times, but Australian government tax revenue from gas exports hardly increased at all.

    Furthermore, because of the impact of the Iran War on gas supplies and prices, the profits from gas sales have risen substantially, so we are missing out on even more tax revenue.
    :::
    Now even more importantly, the ABC reports that the Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, is poised to kill off any move to increase taxes on gas giants in the forthcoming budget. Although the Prime Minister’s own department requested modelling of options to raise more revenue from the industry, the Prime Minister now seems to think, after visiting our energy trading partners and listening to the gas producers, that this is not the time to be hiking taxes on the LNG that Australia is exporting.
    :::
    ndeed, arguably in present circumstances this export tax should be higher, and Albanese should stop being so timid and so readily influenced by self-interested businessmen who are contradicted by the evidence.

    As the former Treasury Secretary and Australia’s leading tax expert, Ken Henry, testified to a Parliamentary Committee: “Just do it, in the national interest, just do it, and stop the crap that the Australian public have put up with for decades now in respect of taxation of Australia’s finite resources.”

Comments Page 1 of 29
1 2 29

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *