YouGov: Labor 27, One Nation 27, Coalition 20 (open thread)

The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll defies recent suggestions of a dip in One Nation support, finding the party equal with Labor for the first time.

The latest fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov records One Nation level with Labor in this series for the first time, with Labor dipping three points to 27% and One Nation matching them with a two-point gain. The Coalition is steady on 20% and the Greens up one to 14%. Labor holds two-party leads of 52-48 over the Coalition (in from 54-46) and 53-47 over One Nation (steady). Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 38% and up two on disapproval to 57%, and holds leads on preferred prime minister of 44-39 over Angus Taylor and 50-39 over Pauline Hanson. Angus Taylor is steady at 38% approval and up four on disapproval to 43%. The poll was conducted April 14 to 21 from a sample of 1501.

Michelle Grattan of The Conversation reports on a uComms poll conducted for the campaign of independent Farrer by-election candidate Michelle Milthorpe, which has Milthorpe and One Nation candidate David Farley all but tied on the primary vote, at 30.0% and 30.9% respectively, with 7.9% reported as undecided. However, Farley would presumably get the better of preferences from the Liberals on 16.1% and the Nationals on 7.1%. The remainder includes 3.8% for the Greens and 1.2% for Family First. The poll was conducted April 9 and 10 from a sample of 1116.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,435 thoughts on “YouGov: Labor 27, One Nation 27, Coalition 20 (open thread)”

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  3. SL says:
    Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 5:25 pm

    Very few EV batteries will ever need replacing (unless they’re an old Nissan Leaf):
    https://electrek.co/2026/02/18/most-ev-batteries-outlast-their-cars-real-world-data-shows/

    Article provides data to 12 years. 80% seems to be where the consensus is at. More than enough for a city run about. To match an ICE car, EV needs to go 11 to 15 years.

    Lasting to third owner is looking good.

    The industry to deal with battery service and replacement is starting.

    https://infinitev.au/

  4. SL

    Thanks re Leaf batteries. Hopefully there will be enough of us around in future to make a replacement battery economic to produce.

    Sprocket

    Yes exactly HiMARS is far cheaper than B21. This was Sam Roggaveen’s point – that long range strike is far more expensive.

  6. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 6:07 pm

    SL @ #2352 Tuesday, April 28th, 2026 – 6:02 pm

    Timmy?

    In a shambolic media conference, shadow treasurer Tim Wilson accidentally claimed the coalition policy would cost $80 billion before consulting with an advisor and correcting himself.

    https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/coalition-fuel-fix-misfires-over-start-up-funding-doubt/ar-AA21PQQJ

    This the thing with Wilson, his mouth often gets ahead of his brain.

    Apparently not all that difficult.

  8. Does a quote for 6.66 kw Solar power system and 23.4 kwk battery system of $13200 ok?

    I have an existing system with battery, which will be linked to the new system after during installation of new system.
    However, the existing hybrid inverter and battery, which were installed in 2024, will be dismantled.


  9. Ven says:
    Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 6:15 pm

    Does a quote for 6.66 kw Solar power system and 23.4 kwk battery system of $13200 ok?

    Ask for details of solar panel, inverter and batteries used. Look up reviews and recalls for products. Ask for reviews of install from previous customers.

  12. frednksays:
    Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 6:21 pm
    Ven, how big is your old system? What brand.

    3.25 kw Solar and 6 kWh battery
    Battery and Inverter: LG brand

  17. I’m not sure of the utility of resurrecting details of mass killings or bombings. I heard a woman today speak about the day she was shot in the back, and of the trauma of losing her daughter at Port Arthur. She is still very traumatised. I doubt rehashing her tragedy 30 years later has done her much good.

  18. It will be very disappointing if the Royal Commission on Antisemitism and Social Cohesion does not address the behavior of the Australian Israel lobby.

    You mean broadly praise it?

    It would be very inconsistent with other Australian instruments of power if anything negative is concluded in relation to Israel or its supporters. It seems much more likely to determine any criticism of Israel and its supporters is antisemitism that must be silenced.

    Even the absolutely ridiculous and deeply idiotic bothsidesing of a genocide is probably in the firing line as antisemitism.

    One side is fighting to get its land back the otherside is committing an ongoing genocide and ethnic cleansing and some people bothsides it. Insane.

  19. If you’re a political leader I’m guessing these are 2 of the 3 worst words you never want to be associated with and would go to great lengths to avoid putting yourself anywhere near those words. But not Trump.

    “I am not a crook,” Richard M. Nixon.

    Donald Trump: “Hold my beer.”

    “I’m not a rapist. I didn’t rape anybody.” — Donald J. Trump to Norah O’Donnell on 60 Minutes

    “Oh, do you think he was referring to you?” O’Donnell asked, before Trump continued.

    “I’m not a pedophile. Excuse me. Excuse me. I’m not a pedophile. You read that c— from some sick person? I got associated with stuff that has nothing to do with me. I was totally exonerated. Your friends on the other side of the plate are the ones that were involved with, let’s say, Epstein or other things… You shouldn’t be reading that on 60 Minutes. You’re a disgrace. But go ahead. Let’s finish the interview… You’re disgraceful.” — Trump, answering a question he was not asked.

    https://charliesykes.substack.com/p/i-am-not-a-rapist-i-am-not-a-pedophile

  20. Mavissays:
    Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 6:43 pm
    I’m not sure of the utility of resurrecting details of mass killings or bombings. I heard a woman today speak about the day she was shot in the back, and of the trauma of losing her daughter at Port Arthur. She is still very traumatised. I doubt rehashing her tragedy 30 years later has done her much good.

    100%

  22. Adelaide writers’ week sacrificed to save city’s prestigious arts festival, documents show

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2026/apr/28/adelaide-writers-week-2026-cancelled-to-save-festival

    “Adelaide writers’ week was sacrificed to save the 2026 Adelaide festival, an event that ploughs more than $60m into South Australia’s economy each year, documents show.

    After the 8 January announcement by the Adelaide festival board that controversial Palestinian Australian academic Randa Abdel-Fattah had been dumped from the AWW program, it wasn’t just fellow Australian and international guest writers and academics who began pulling out in droves.
    :::
    While SA premier Peter Malinauskas has publicly denied his office exerted undue pressure on the festival’s independence, the FoI documents suggest his 2 January letter to the board was the primary catalyst for the crisis.”

  23. Angus Taylor’s latest brainfart…

    Double Australias fuel storage capacity .. would cost.. wait for it

    Claude AI..
    Cost Estimates for Doubling Fuel Storage

    The Australian government estimates that reaching 90 days of fuel storage (closer to a full doubling from the current 30-day baseline) would cost approximately $20 billion.

  24. Confessions says:
    Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 6:07 pm

    Princess Timmy suffers from chronic BeSureBrainisinGearBeforeEngagingMouthitis.

  25. Scepticsays:
    Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 7:10 pm
    Angus Taylor’s latest brainfart…

    Double Australias fuel storage capacity .. would cost.. wait for it

    Claude AI..
    Cost Estimates for Doubling Fuel Storage

    The Australian government estimates that reaching 90 days of fuel storage (closer to a full doubling from the current 30-day baseline) would cost approximately $20 billion.
    ======================================

    Who is his adviser, P1?

  27. Ven…. I think you-can do better .”

    Theres lots of deals as battery suppliers trying to off load supply before rebate runs out.

    Sunsolar have 30 kw battery for 6400*

    I got 10.2 kw solar for $4200 then got 26.6 kw battery for 6800 with a 5 kw inverter and they left my original 1.5 up on the roof and connected it to the 10.2 new system…..just after I got my 26.6 kw battery a company was offering 39.9kw for the same price of 6800
    I got mine of an instagram ad…….go on instagram and search for battery and solar deals

  28. Got around to reading more of Tom Uren’s autobiography at last today, covering his time in Timor in 1942. He states that the only time in the war where he went into a full panic was when he ran about a hundred yards over flat uncovered land during a Japanese air attack, he writes that he would never do something like that again.

    The next chapter covers his time on the Burma-Thailand Railway, and I somewhat dread reading how bad that got. Probably something to go over tomorrow.

  29. I would suggest any rorts err renewable energy freebies etc be completed before the budget as labor has a massive deficit that’s getting worse by the day.They will be hopefully be scrapping stupid subsidies.

  31. You get what you pay for, Ven. The following podcast is long, boring and self-serving but their key message is valid:

    But installing a battery involves more than plugging in a piece of hardware. How it’s installed is just as important, as well as having an installer who’ll be around to fix any problems.

    While most batteries are of a high standard, the Clean Energy Regulator recently found more than 60% of installations are substandard.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/switchedon-podcast-why-are-some-home-batteries-so-cheap/

    While the second point is true, it is mostly minor things like not applying safety stickers. For the first point, using Solar Quotes (as Pi said) seems to be the best way to get a quality service:
    https://www.solarquotes.com.au/

  33. The first liquefied natural gas shipment since the war in the Middle East began two months ago appears to have traversed the Strait of Hormuz to exit the Persian Gulf.
    The Mubaraz — which loaded a cargo from Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s Das Island facility in the United Arab Emirates around early March — is now passing the southern tip of India, according to ship-tracking data. The tanker had been idling inside the gulf, but stopped sending a signal around March 31, before re-appearing west of India on April 27, the data show.

  34. Pedant alert.

    A kW is a rate, how fast the power is delivered.
    A kWh is a total, how much total power is available, or was used, or is needed.

    Battery descriptions use both: They charge/discharge in kW, and store in kWh.

    If you’re old, like me, you’ll remember worrying about the wattage of a light bulb, because it got brighter the bigger the number was in front of the W. A bright bulb was 100W. Dim bulbs were low wattage. 🙂

    nuff said.

  38. Trump is desperate for a way out of Iran but because he’s given so many tells to Iran (including multiple boys who cried wolves) over the past 2 months, needs an exit strategy to save face.

    Iran can see they’ve got him by the balls and are just squeezing. They don’t care about global economic instability, US midterms or Trump’s polling at home. They aren’t going to give up their trump card (no pun intended) of the Strait of Hormuz.

    Where does this leave everyone else? Up shit creek and with no end in sight to this madness.

  39. James Paterson on 7:30 has an assumption that we would use military force to prevent Taiwan’s return to China.
    Very worrying, indeed.

  40. Voters are starting to trust Democrats more on the economy, offering a potential opening for the party to regain ground on kitchen-table issues ahead of November’s midterms.
    For the first time since 2010, Americans say they trust Democrats more than Republicans — 52 percent to 48 percent — to handle the economy, according to the latest Fox News poll.
    The last time Democrats held the upper hand was in May 2010, when 44 percent said they trusted Democrats and 41 percent favored Republicans, ending an 8-year stretch in which voters preferred Democrats on the issue.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5851905-democrats-gain-trust-economy/

  41. “James Paterson on 7:30 has an assumption that we would use military force to prevent Taiwan’s return to China.”
    What, even if they voted to end the civil war and rejoin the mainland?

  42. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 8:32 pm
    James Paterson on 7:30 has an assumption that we would use military force to prevent Taiwan’s return to China.
    Very worrying, indeed.
    ______________________
    The Gods favor the bold.

  43. Late Risersays:
    Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 8:08 pm
    Pedant alert.

    A kW is a rate, how fast the power is delivered.
    A kWh is a total, how much total power is available, or was used, or is needed.
    ========================================

    To be even more pedant. kW is power while KWh is energy. Making kW the rate are which energy is delivered (not power). While kWh is energy the amount of power delivered over a period of time E=Pt.

  45. Threatening our closest allies and neighbors is unlikely to end well …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-28/penny-wong-visits-japan-to-discuss-australia-fuel-supply/106615724

    “We are reliable suppliers. We want to continue to be reliable suppliers,” Senator Wong told the ABC.

    “And to do that, we need to have diesel, we need to have jet fuel, we need to have petrol, and we need to have fertiliser too.”

    She denied that Australia was using its energy exports as a cudgel with major fuel exporters in the region, saying her argument was both an assertion of “partnership” and an “assertion of the reality”.

    “Nice little gas resale business you have there … pity if something should happen to it …” says Penny.

    But sure, this is entirely normal. Nothing to worry about.

  46. Re Oakshott @8:32.

    James Paterson on 7:30 has an assumption that we would use military force to prevent Taiwan’s return to China.

    And if the Coalition were in power at the time, we would be joining the fight about 3 nanoseconds after the USA.

    Prime Minister Hastie, dd/mm/203y:

    “It is my melancholy duty to inform you officially that in consequence of a persistence by China in her invasion of Taiwan, the USA has declared war upon her and that, as a result, Australia is also at war.”

  49. Player Onesays:
    Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 9:19 pm
    Entropy

    Who is his adviser, P1?

    No, that would be the IEA.
    ==============================

    So the fossil fuel lobby you and Angus both support.

  50. At this stage, the US has almost got to start bombing Iran again. They are out of other cards to play. They keep blundering badly. And they might get lucky and the Iranian regime might fall apart.

    I actually suspect that the regime will only fall apart about 6 months after the war finishes as they will struggle to get the economy going and they won’t be able to keep the dissent under control.

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