One of the year’s most consequential elections is being held overnight Australian time in Hungary, where Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party are fighting to remain in power after 16 years in office. His rival is Péter Magyar of the Tisza party, a former government insider who held senior roles in state-owned companies but broke with Fidesz two years ago amid a scandal over presidential pardons. Both contenders are identified with the political right, but Magyar’s promise of a reorientation toward a pro-NATO and European Union line stands in contrast to Orbán, whose regime has been distinguished in recent years by indulgence towards Vladimir Putin and his war on Ukraine, together with an wide-ranging illiberalism that has won the favour of the Donald Trump and a visit from J.D. Vance this week to endorse his campaign.
The manifestations of the latter include a skewing of electoral laws in Fidesz’s favour, including by allowing ethnic Hungarians in neighbouring countries to vote and letting them do so by post, of which at least 90% are cast for Fidesz, boosting them by a couple of percentage points in terms of national vote share. The Economist’s modelling suggests Tisza would need to outpoll Fidesz by 4.3% to have a better than even chance of securing a parliamentary majority, whereas Fidesz would need to trail by more than 2.0% to be a better than even chance of going into minority. The changes to the constitution, electoral rules, the judiciary and media regulation overseen by Orbán’s regime have required a two-thirds majority.
This post is going live just as polls close at 3am eastern Australian time, and the broad outline of the result seems likely to be clear by the time most of you read this. Polling has been radically variable depending on whether the pollster in question has been aligned with Fidesz: according to tracking conducted by The Economist, such polling has had Fidesz and its allies six or seven points ahead, whereas opposition-aligned or neutral polling has given Tisza a double-digit lead. What is already clear at the time of writing is that turnout is well up on 2022: 38% had voted as of 11am local time, with polls closing at 7pm, as compared with 26% at the same point in 2022.
> whose regime has been distinguished in recent years by indulgence towards Vladimir Putin
‘regime’, ‘indulgence’
An election analyst should strive to write objectively about an election, not use loaded words.
Btw, Philip Pilkington on X (https://x.com/philippilk) is one good account to follow on the Hungarian election, particularly on some of the funny antics regarding polling and reporting that have been going on.
Looks to me like this like Philip Pilkington bats for one specific side of Hungarian politics.
https://www.hungarianconservative.com/articles/author/philip-pilkington/
And “indulgence” towards Putin is if anything overly bowdlerised. On any objective view Orban has been downright friendly to Putin.
In any event, we’ll soon see what’s happened one way or another. High turnout. Early counting seems to be looking good for Tisza, certainly not like the polls’ large underestimate of Orban in 2022 has been repeated at any rate.
Per the Guardian –
Official results here:
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026
Arky, ‘friendly’ would have been fine (and a much better choice than ‘indulgence’)
Regarding William’s usage of ‘regime,’ I wonder if he has ever described the Australian government with that word? If not then why one word for the elected government of Australia and another for the elected government of Hungary?
William Bowe says:
Monday, April 13, 2026 at 4:49 am
Official results here:
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026
_______
Thanks. Surprised that they provided an English option.
How do the list mandates work? Seems bizarre that fewer votes lead to more seats.
Philip Pilkington spent the day gloating about favourable trends he felt about to divine for Orban in turnout data.
ajm says:
Monday, April 13, 2026 at 5:03 am
How do the list mandates work? Seems bizarre that fewer votes lead to more seats.
_____________
I found this article helpful: https://electoral-reform.org.uk/how-do-elections-work-in-hungary/
RT reports Orban has conceded defeat.
https://x.com/RT_com/status/2043407527438672121
Official projection has tipped over to a Tisza super-majority with a bit over half the vote counted (though that’s very far from confirmed).
https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026
Orban’s Foreign Minister has been sprung passing EU classified material to Russia.
And Viktor himself continues to block $90b Euros of aid to Ukraine, to help Putins illegal war.
‘Indulgence’ is too euphemistic imho
Griff @ #8 Monday, April 13th, 2026 – 5:10 am
Really bizarre! Sort of like adding apples and oranges too get pears!
To be clear, this “good account” was not referring to the Fidesz-aligned polling that had them six to seven points ahead.
Wow!
Orban has just conceded defeat! Perhaps there is hope for democracy yet.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260412-live-hungary-parliamentary-elections-orb%C3%A1n
Snap William!
You’re being quite voluble William. Perhaps you’d now like to provide a rationale for your use of the word ‘regime’ above?
I am, getting notifications from all sorts of news services (France 24, BBC, Guardian), saying that Victor Orban has conceded defeat, and rung to congratulate Peter Magyar on his victory.
I am so relieved that democracy in Hungary is taking its course.
I think many of us were worried the Orban would not accept a defeat. But he has, and I think this is a great victory for democracy.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/01/going-with-the-flow/
Douglas and Milko says:
Monday, April 13, 2026 at 5:36 am
I am, getting notifications from all sorts of news services (France 24, BBC, Guardian), saying that Victor Orban has conceded defeat, and rung to congratulate Peter Magyar on his victory.
I am so relieved that democracy in Hungary is taking its course.
I think many of us were worried the Orban would not accept a defeat. But he has, and I think this is a great victory for democracy.
_________
I admit to nerves. To the point of waking early to watch.
The supermajority is currently looking good as well.
Nice to wake up to good news for a change, well on this front at any rate
Reuters
Wonderful news. I hope Putin doesn’t try anything.
With near 80% of the vote in…
“This is the sweetest Viktor-y of all.”
#ETTD
Donald Trump’s comment:
‘Viktor Orban? Hardly knew him..’
This is fantastic news and again, as we’ve seen in other countries’ elections (including our own), voters do not like Trump and do not want him getting involved in their politics.
Yes indeed Fess. Even the far right parties in Europe are trying to distance themselves from DJT: definitely Farage, Meloni to some extent and even AfD a little bit.
And he’s getting more toxic by the hour. It will be interesting to see how Republicans who aren’t in deep blue constituencies campaign in the mid-terms. There could be a vicious circle for Trump in which he blows up at some of these people and thereby makes himself even more unpopular.
All good, except what’s happening to the global economy. 🙁
Phew!
Some Bludgers don’t like losing, it seems. Well done Hungary!
meher baba:
What is also good is that Orban’s defeat is so evident he can’t get away with trying to pretend it’s close or rigged.
And Vance is 0 from 2 over the weekend!
What fantastic news. To quote The Lord of the Rings, “Hope has been rekindled”…..The beacon of democracy burns in Hungary today…..take that Putin and your lapdog Trump!!!
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/12/world/europe/hungary-election-orban-magyar.html
Orban’s reaction to the turnout:
Good outcome. I see it looks like Tisza has the 2/3 it needs to unpick some of Orban’s “reforms”, so even better than just a simple win.
William, thank you for writing this blog post, and also for the link to the live results.
You are absolutely correct to describe this election as “one of the year’s most consequential”. The outgoing PM, Orbán, was an absolute ally of Putin and enemy of Ukraine. He was also an enemy of liberal democracy. This aligned perfectly to his alliance with Putin and enmity towards Ukraine. Ukraine as a state independent of Russia stands for the pursuit of liberalism, democracy and opposition to corruption. Putin could and can never tolerate the successful independence of such a state on his border run by fellow Slavs. It would give his own abject subjects ideas which would threaten his own rule, illiberal and autocratic as it is.
Orbán was using his position as a wielder of an EU and NATO veto to help Putin and harm Ukraine. He was doing so in a cynical manner to try to extort material gains for Hungary, but even when no such gains were available at the time, he wielded the veto anyway, to help Putin and harm Ukraine. This was especially obvious in his stubborn veto over the €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine and to the 20th sanctions package. In short, the EU ultimately concluded that Orbán could not actually be reasoned with over Russia and Ukraine – not even at the cynical level of being ‘bought off’.
The incoming PM, Péter Magyar, may not be as pro-Ukrainian as, say, Polish PM Donald Tusk, but at least he will prove reasonable in exercising Hungary’s veto. He will not stand in the way if, say, the rest of the EU wants to help Ukraine and is not asking Hungary to stump up for anything. This alone will be a great boon to Ukraine at this time. I don’t think Ukrainians are expecting a massive turnaround in the Hungarian government’s support for them in their existential struggle for survival, but they will by looking forward to Hungary stepping out of the way of other EU countries trying to help.
Anyway, sorry for the long post, William. I very much appreciate this thread you’ve written here.
Having a bit of .a buffer on a 2/3 majority for Tisza should allow for a full return to democratic structures. Always room for fallout from the no doubt mixed views of the Tisza MPs.
William Bowe,Monday, April 13, 2026 at 5:17 am:
As of a moment ago, 96.89% of votes are counted and the official projection is now up to 138 seats for Tisza (up from 137 fifteen minuts ago). This is above the 133 seats minimum for a supermajority and climbing.
A supermajority was always the real target for Tisza. This is needed for Tisza to change the Fundamental Law (ie, Constitution) or any of the Cardinal Laws (governing electoral rules, judicial appointments, media regulations, the powers of the central bank and such like) without the agreement of the Fidesz opposition. And this is needed because Fidesz spent the last 16 years stacking these institutions with personnel and rules design to boost themselves and quash their opponents. All this will ned to be undone by Tisza and this will be the most urgent task the incoming government will tackle.
Oban was Trump’s inspiration in terms of picking apart and degrading the institutions of democracy. Apparently the theme of the Hungarian election was corruption after the Orban corrupt years.
Perhaps this is the way back for the US to rid itself of the Trump influence. Democrats should start yelling about all the corruption Trump is engaging in, personally enriching himself and his family at the expense of taxpayers.
A landslide to Magyar on the back of high voter turnout. Great news!
Well done Peter Magyar and goodbye Viktor Orban.
As well as being great news for Ukraine and the EU, this might lead to an interesting cleanout of corruption within Hungary as well.
I call Trump US administration as Trump regime.
I call a government, a regime, when it stops to behaving like a government but behaves anti-people junta.
Confession, Monday, April 13, 2026 at 6:37 am:
Confessions, yes, this was a very encouraging element of this result. In Hungary’s case, there is also the element of widespread unease at the Orbán government’s longstanding servility to Putin’s Russia which is not present on the other cases of an anti-‘Trumpist’ swing (eg, our own nation’s rejection of Dutton-Cash ‘Trumpism’).
Let’s take the recent revelations of the outgoing government’s acts of obeisance to Putin. This is the revelation of the previous FM’s treacherous acts of leaking confidential EU discussions straight away with his Russian counterpart, Lavrov, and the leak of Orbán’s lickspittle likening to Putin of Hungary to a mouse at the service of the ‘lion’ which is Russia. Orbán tried to reframe this blatant undermining of Hungary’s own sovereign independence into a matter of ‘eavesdropping’ on Hungarian Government figures. This fell completely flat. It is not hard to see why: a lot of Hungarians would themselves not put it past the Orbán government to do a lot of eavesdropping of its own, on Hungarian citizens, and even to let the Russians to a fair bit of it themselves. It’s hard to be sympathetic towards Government members for being targets of an activity you might very well think they are perpetrating on you themselves.
Anyway, there is no doubt that Trump hitched himself to the wrong horse and also that his intervention, at the very least, did not help Orbán. This says very good things about the Hungarian electorate. Hopefully, that can translate to other electorates across Europe (including the UK).
Fantastic news to wake up to. Hopefully the new Tisza government is able to repair all the damage Fidesz under Orban did to Hungary.
Fess@ 7.48 am
Absolutely! Why don’t they do this? A combination of things IMO.
1.Jeffries and Schumer are about as useful as the proverbial mammaries on a bicycle.
2. Some powerful Dems have plenty of skeletons in their closets. US political corruption and other gross improprieties weren’t invented by DJT.
3. They seem to me to be a little overconfident and relying on the old Napoleonic philosophy of not interfering with your enemies while they are stuffing up.
4. Fundraising is more difficult for them than usual due to businesses all being desperate to suck up to DJT.
IMO it’s dangerous to put too much faith in the Dems. They aren’t much chop these days. Trump will go down in history as having exposed the deep flaws in the US political system: flaws that I very much doubt can be fixed any time soon.
Confessions, Monday, April 13, 2026 at 7:48 am:
Agreed. I’d add that ‘servility to Russia’ played a part as well in this result. US Democrats might consider drawing as much attention as they can to the complete lack of any response by Trump and his team to the assistance Russia gave Iran in targeting US military assets and personnel. They can write a very strong narrative around the question of whose side is Trump really on: American men and women in uniform, or Russian?
newy boy
woooooooooooooooooooooh yeah
Did Trump send Vance to Hungary and to Islamabad to reinforce his Vance the loser meme?
Also those Fidesz-aligned pollsters continually saying that Orban would win are a disgrace to polling and should immediately disband.
Kirsdarke
But those posters were only wrong because “too many people voted”.
Orbán regime flushed, Hard luck Fascist Bastard(s). 😆
Kirsdarke, Monday, April 13, 2026 at 8:09 am:
Kirsdarke – yes, and now they won’t have an IV drip of taxpayer money courtesy of a corrupt Fidesz government, they probably will.
A deeper point is how it shows there was no aspect of Hungarian public discourse that the Fidesz government didn’t want to flood with lies. Most critically, on matters like the demonisation of an entire country which was and is the victim of a violent and unjustified invasion and occupation by a hostile, imperialist neighbour. But even on matters like ‘who is winning’ domestically.
This instinctive reflex to respond to challenges with lies is one of the hallmarks of Putin’s Russia, and the Orbán apple didn’t fall far from the Putin tree.
Omar Comin’, Monday, April 13, 2026 at 8:05 am:
It’s a good day today. There have been many crap ones and there will probably be many more crap ones to come. But today is a good day. 🙂
Honest Bastard, Monday, April 13, 2026 at 4:26 am:
‘Honest’ Bastard – one way of revealing who you are is by who you choose to go into bat for.