US Georgia 14 federal special election runoff live

Live Commentary

1:53pm Thursday I’ve done an article for The Conversation on the drop in Trump’s US ratings and the November midterm elections.

3:56pm With nearly all votes counted in Wisconsin, Taylor wins by 60.1-39.8, a 21-point swing to Dems from the 2024 pres election. The NYT says Taylor particularly outperformed his benchmarks in suburbs, small towns and rural places, exceeding his benchmarks there by 21-23 points compared with 12 points in big cities.

12:51pm In Wisconsin, with 78% in, the left-wing Taylor leads by 60.2-39.7. The NYT expects Taylor to win by 18 points. This is a gain for the left, so left-wing judges will increase their state Supreme Court majority to 5-2 from 4-3 previously.

12:43pm In Georgia 14, with almost all votes now in, Rep Fuller defeats Dem Harris by 55.9-44.1. While that’s a comfortable hold for the Reps, it’s a 25-point reduction in the Rep margin (from Trump’s 37-point win in 2024 to 12 today). Reps will have a 219-214 lead in the House with two vacancies.

11:51am A very easy win for the left-wing judge Taylor in Wisconsin, who now leads Lazar by 61-39 with 52% in. The NYT estimate is for Taylor’s current 22-point lead to narrow to 17 points when all votes are counted.

11:33am In Wisconsin, with 27% in, the left-wing judge Taylor is leading the right-winger Lazar by 57.4-42.5. The New York Times estimates Taylor will win by 16 points when everything is counted. Trump won Wisconsin by 0.9 points in 2024.

11:22am With two counties (Paulding and Cobb in the southeast) yet to finalise their results, Fuller leads by 57.5-42.5 with 86% in.

11:04am With 76% in, Fuller leads by 55.6-44.4. In the five counties with complete results, there’s a swing to the Dems between 22 and 30 points from the 2024 pres election. Polls in Wisconsin have now closed.

10:42am Fuller doing it easily now, winning by 55.6-44.4 with 67% in. Polk is the second county to fully count its votes, with Fuller winning by 39 points, a 22-point swing to Dems from the 2024 pres election.

10:02am With some results from all counties in Georgia 14 in, Rep Fuller leads by 53-47 with 42% in. I expect him to expand his lead on election day votes.

9:48am The election day votes have been counted in Chattooga county, boosting Fuller’s overall lead to 51.5-48.5. There’s a 25-point shift towards Dems in that county from the 2024 pres election result, but that’s not enough for Harris to pull off an upset.

9:40am With 28% overall reporting still without results from two counties, Fuller has a tiny 50.03-49.97 lead. That’s likely to widen considerably by the final results.

9:34am Harris takes a 52-48 lead on counting in Cobb county (Atlanta suburbs). But with more rural counties still to report and the right skew of election day votes, Fuller is the clear favourite.

9:22am With 10% in, Fuller leads by 55-45. The counties that have reported so far are mostly rural, but election day votes will probably help Fuller.

9:16am With results from two rural counties in, Fuller takes the lead by 62-38 with 3% in.

9:10am In very early results from Georgia 14, Dem Harris has taken a 62-38 lead over Rep Fuller. These results will be from early voting, which skews left in the US.

8:36am There will also be a Wisconsin state Supreme Court election today, with polls closing at 11am AEST.  Left-aligned judges hold a 4-3 majority, and a right-wing judge’s seat is up for election, so the left will retain its majority, but a left win would increase its majority to 5-2.  Chris Taylor is the left’s candidate, while Maria Lazar represents the right.  A mid-March Marquette poll gave Taylor a 30-22 lead with 47% undecided.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 9am AEST today for a federal special election runoff in Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene’s former Georgia 14 seat after she resigned on January 5. At the March 10 jungle primary for this seat, Democrat Shawn Harris (with 37.3%) and Republican Clayton Fuller (with 34.9%) advanced to the runoff. Including other Republican and Democratic candidates, Republicans overall won by 59.7-39.8.

At the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in Georgia 14 by 68.2-31.3, a 36.9-point margin. At the 33 state special elections held so far in 2026, Democrats have performed on average 10.6 points better than the Trump vs Harris margin in those same seats.

Republicans hold a 218-214 House of Representatives majority with two other vacancies. A special election in New Jersey’s 11th will occur on April 16 after Democrat Mikie Sherill was elected NJ governor in November 2025. The Republican member for California’s first died in early January, with the jungle primary to be held on June 2 and a runoff if needed on August 4.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -16.9, down 4.4 points since March 4 to a record low owing to the Iran war. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 5.4 points, with this margin little changed since January. Midterm elections occur this November.

Danish, Slovenian, German and Italian electoral events

Of the 179 Danish seats, 175 are elected in Denmark and two each in Greenland and Faroe Islands by proportional representation with a 2% threshold. At the March 24 election, the centre-left Social Democrats won 38 seats (down 12 since the 2022 election), and their vote share of 21.9% was their lowest since 1903. The two other more conservative former governing parties also lost seats, with the Green Left winning the second most seats with 20 (up five).

Overall, left-wing parties (Red Bloc) won 86 seats and right-wing parties (Blue Bloc) 78 seats, with the Moderates with 14 seats holding the balance of power. Other than a short period near the end of 2025, the Red Bloc had been ahead in the polls since the last election.

Of the 90 Slovenian seats, 88 are elected by PR in eight 11-member electorates with a national 4% threshold. The last two seats go to minorities. At the March 22 election, the governing socially liberal GS won 29 seats (down 12 since 2022), the right-wing SDS 28 (up one), the conservative NSI nine (up one), the centre-left SD six (down one), the centre-right Democrats six (new), the Left five (steady) and the COVID-skeptical Resni.ca five (up five). With 46 seats needed for a majority, the SDS is likely to be the next government.

German elections effectively use PR with a 5% threshold. At the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate state election, the conservative CDU won 39 of the 105 seat (up eight since 2021), the centre-left SPD 32 (down seven), the populist right AfD 24 (up 15) and the Greens ten (steady). The independent FW and pro-business FDP lost their 12 combined seats by falling below the threshold. A CDU/SPD coalition is the only way to get a majority without the AfD.

On March 22-23, a referendum occurred in Italy on judicial reforms. This referendum was backed by Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing government. The referendum was defeated by a 53.2-46.8 margin.

Upcoming Hungarian election and Canadian by-elections

I previously covered next Sunday’s Hungarian election. Polls continue to be contradictory, with those aligned with the populist right governing Fidesz giving Fidesz 5-8 point leads over the conservative and pro-European Tisza, while other polls give Tisza 9-23 point leads.

The centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 House of Commons seats at the 2025 Canadian federal election, three short of a majority. Since then, three Conservatives have defected to the Liberals, but two Liberals in safe seats have resigned and the Terrebonne result was voided by the courts after the Liberals originally defeated the Quebec Bloc by just one vote. By-elections for the two safe Liberal seats and Terrebonne occur next Monday. If the Liberals win all three, they will have a Commons majority.