The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor up a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 20%, One Nation down two to 25% and the Greens steady on 13%. Labor holds two-party leads of 55-45 over both the Coalition and One Nation. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 39% and down two on disapproval to 55%, while Angus Taylor improves not inconsiderably with a four-point increase in approval to 38% and a three-point drop in disapproval to 39%. Albanese leads 44-36 on preferred prime minister, out from 43-37. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1500.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up half a point to 30.5%, the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 24%, One Nation down two to 21.5%, and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 12%. In Labor-versus-Coalition terms, the poll finds Labor leading 56-44 based on previous election and 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (the latter measure has on average had Labor a point higher since the last election). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1411.
Roy Morgan also had an SMS poll recording an 83-17 split in favour of the government’s decision to cut fuel excise on petrol and diesel, although there was a 64-36 split against the government on satisfaction of its management of the shortage. Respondents were also invited to provide open-ended responses as to who they blamed and why, which you can read about in very great detail in an accompanying report. This poll was conducted March 26 to April 1 from a sample of 2514.
A poll I missed last Thursday was a RedBridge Group/Accent Research “super-poll” of 5563 respondents in the Financial Review. It was slightly dated in having been conducted from March 6 to 19, and did not feature a national headline result, its raison d’etre being breakdowns with significant samples. I will add the results later today from the four largest states and by age, gender, language, housing tenure and past vote to the BludgerTrack poll data archive, and stick here to the bits it’s unable to accommodate. Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group has published a cross-tabulation for generation by financial stress to illustrate the point that stressed older voters are voting One Nation while their younger equivalents are voting Greens, a point he elaborated on in an accompanying analysis piece.
My own favourite cross-tabulation is age-by-gender, which offers a too-rare look at one of the most striking electoral phenomena of our time, namely the pronounced gender gap that has developed among young voters. Among “Gen-Z” men, Labor is on 39%, the Coalition 12%, One Nation 19% and the Greens 24%; among women, Labor is on 26%, the Coalition 14%, One Nation 11% and the Greens 38%. The pattern is reflected in lesser degree among “millennials”, the result for men being Labor 36%, Coalition 16%, One Nation 26% and Greens 13%, and for women Labor 28%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 27% and Greens 15%. For “Gen-X” men, Labor is on 32%, the Coalition 18%, One Nation 35% and the Greens 6%; for women, Labor 29%, the Coalition 21%, One Nation 31% and Greens 9%. Among “baby boomer” men, Labor is on 27%, the Coalition 30%, One Nation 31% and the Greens 4%; among women, Labor 33%, the Coalition 24%, One Nation 32% and the Greens 3%.
The poll also asked four questions of the 491 respondents who said they would vote One Nation. Seventy per cent agreed their choice was a “tactic to make the major parties listen to ordinary Australians”, with only 18% disagreeing. However, 65% felt it “important to elect qualified leaders, even if we don’t always agree with them”, with 14% disagreeing. Fifty-four per cent felt “almost anything is better than the way things are going now, I just want to vote for change”, with 24% disagreeing.
The Australia Institute has an unrelated YouGov poll (hat-tip to Nadia in comments), conducted March 12 to 19 from a sample of 1502, as part of its campaign for a gas exports tax but encompassing voting intention. The result includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know” component, with the rest being Labor 26%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 24% and Greens 12%. The full report features breakdowns by state, age and gender. It also finds 60% agreeing that Australia exports too much gas, with only 10% disagreeing.
The Russian Academy of Sciences has proposed a plan to divide the Moon so that Russia gets its own “sovereign territories”.
Russia’s space science program will ultimately allow Moscow to establish control over lunar territories, Sergei Chernyshev, vice president of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said at a presidium meeting dedicated to space exploration, Russian news outlet RBC reported on Tuesday. The Lunar program will provide new knowledge and technologies for lunar exploration. And ultimately, it will help establish sovereign Russian territories on the lunar surface,” he was quoted as saying by RBC. However, during the same event, Chernyshev also announced further delays to Russia’s lunar program, with the country’s next mission, Luna-26, now postponed to 2028, a year later than previously planned.
https://tvpworld.com/92518436/ras-moscow-to-establish-sovereign-russian-territories-on-the-moon
United States President Donald Trump vowed on Wednesday to impose tariffs on all goods from countries that sell any weapons to Iran with “no exemptions.” “A Country supplying Military Weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions!” Trump wrote in apost on Truth Social.
https://breakingthenews.net/Article/Trump-to-tariff-countries-selling-weapons-to-Iran/66029294
UAE is where the wedgetails is at.
I wonder what the SAS is doing, propping up the ruling family?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_Aw9t6uc9m8
@Holdenhillbilly at 9:46pm
Well, Russia has yet to successfully land a spacecraft on the moon. Last one they attempted that I saw in a documentary was some guy swearing while their craft crash-landed into it and was destroyed. Thankfully without anyone on board.
It’s good to see the Greens take the fight to Labor. They need to take a populist approach, not a reformist approach. Populism is working for the UK Greens and it can work here.
@Kirsdarke
You sure? The Soviets did the first soft landing on the moon with Luna9 in 1966.
Nicholas @ #405 Wednesday, April 8th, 2026 – 10:13 pm
Well they started that way 40 years or so ago but sadly were captured by the inner city elites. And this resulted in Max.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 9:49 pm
United States President Donald Trump vowed on Wednesday to impose tariffs on all goods from countries that sell any weapons to Iran with “no exemptions.” “A Country supplying Military Weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50%, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions!” Trump wrote in apost on Truth Social.
https://breakingthenews.net/Article/Trump-to-tariff-countries-selling-weapons-to-Iran/66029294
___________________
Ahh good, more Tariff threats, situation normal again at the White House
Soviet’s landed many a probe, rover, impactor on the moon. The Russian Federation has had one unintentional crash.
China and India have working rovers on the moon.
So Russian claims are up there with ‘we’ll be in Kiev by Christmas’.
You know, a funny story I picked up a few months ago from someone on Reddit.
If you post something correct, you are unlikely to get people to interact with you. But if you post something incorrect, you get many people eager to correct you and paint the whole picture more clearly.
That said, I did not know that the Soviets successfully landed Luna 9 on the moon in 1966, so thank you for telling me that.
– AP
Trump’s bluff was called, and he went to water. Even a cursory knowledge of history would show him that
bombing the shit out of a country rarely works – eg, North Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya & Syria. I suspect Netanyahu will be hopping mad and will do his best to end the ceasefire.
Trump vows to ‘dig up’ Iran’s uranium as Vance welcomes ‘fragile truce’
More complete shite from Trump.
Frednk
Until 2 years ago an Australian general was the longstanding head of the UAE presidential guard. Now he is the head of their military college. Australians have been propping up their ruling family for quite a while
“We sing the death song, kids,
Because we’ve got no future.”
100Israeli strikes in 10 minutes just now in Lebanon.
How’s that going for you hezbollah?
No more Iran bombing for a while so can concentrate on Hezbollah.
Pegasus says:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 9:19 pm
Griff, I am happy for you that you have a discredited political theory to grasp onto to misrepresent any views I might have, even If I have not expressed such a view you imply. It is obvious to any impartial observor that the issues I am passionate about are poles apart from ON views and policies.
______________
Seriously? Where are people voting elsewhere? Take a look at the polls, Pegasus. Take a look at the SA election. Take a look at reality and then reflect on your words below:
“The establishment parties will do whatever it takes to maintain BAU and the status quo. As the trend in their declining vote share indicates, an increasing number of voters are seeing the light and voting elsewhere.”
That Vic federal poll from Nadia, last page:
Compared to last election (ALP 34 Lib 32 Grn 13.5 ON 6) that’s swings of ALP -9 Lib -11 Grn +2.5 ON +20 (bloody hell). Having a lazy eye of the pendulum…
Marginal Labor: Menzies, Deakin, Aston and Chisholm would be Lib gains on ON prefs. McEwen: ON gain with the Libs coming third. Wills and Melbourne will be in deep trouble from the Greens. Bendigo is an outlier from last time, and if Labor couldn’t lose Calwell last year they’re not doing it now.
Less marginal Labor: Dunkley, Hawke, Corangamite. Libs would come third in the first two and ON would give it a damn good shake (let’s just say they’ll win one or the other); Corangamite is closer to a tie for second, which is probably good for Labor there. Meanwhile the Greens make Fraser and Cooper marginal.
Macnamara: an unpickable four-way mess. Labor would probably hold it, but it’s one of those wild situations where who comes fourth matters.
Marginal Lib: Goldstein, Flinders and Wannon are Lib/Ind margins so who knows – Casey and Monash almost were too. La Trobe is literally the only Lib seat in Vic which didn’t have a serious independent chance – Jason “GMO” Wood should hold on for another term doing nothing much. Maybe ON have a chance in Monash?
Safe Nat: Nicholls got taken close by an independent in 2022, so maaaybe One Nation have a chance. Mallee and Gippsland require an earthquake.
So that’d be ALP 19 (-8), Lib 10 (+4), Nat 3 (-), ON 2 (+2), Grn 2 (+2). Libs off life support, Labor still have half the seats. Less catastrophic than Qld.
——-
A couple of things I noticed on the side: Hotham is Labor’s safest seat in Vic, which surprised me – it was marginal not that long ago (partly thanks to redistribution). Clare O’Neil has had a swing to her at every election since 2016.
On the Lib/Nat side, all six Lib seats have 2pp margin 4% or less, while all three Nat seats are out past 14%. Two very different clusters.
SL, a couple of pages back:
That was Liam Bartlett. Maybe I wasn’t paying attention, but I don’t remember him being that much of a fuckwit back in the day. (He’s been on radio and TV in Perth for decades.) I guess he’s turning into a grumpy old man, Sky News style.
What a pathetic gaslighter that Fox News host Hegseth is
Iran is now putting the brakes on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Traffic halted after attacks by Israel on Lebanon, Iranian news agency says.
Of course Netanyahu blew up the ceasefire. Didn’t even take him 24 hours. Pathetic warmongering bastard needs to be dropped like a rock, but he won’t be.
pied piper says:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 10:45 pm
Oil is no longer going to be priced in USD. This is likely to spread to other commodities.
This is another example of the dissolution of the extra-continental US economy. That is, US economy – measured globally – is undergoing liquidation.
This arises in part because of Trump’s idiotic tariff policies; and now it follows the defeat of the US in the Gulf.
The US is being hollowed out. It is shrinking. It is becoming an orphaned failed Hegemon.
Not a day too soon. The Republicans have made America a hologram.
Some Cartoons
Rowe
Mark David
Golding
Megan Herbert
Rod Emmerson NZ Herald
Seems like a good summary of the EU trade deal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRJxzd1jwoA
Cartoons Europe
Dave Brown
Christian Adams
Rebecca Hendin
Martin Rowson
Le Monde Cartooning for Peace. Maarten Wolterink (Netherlands)
Del Rosso
Truant
Peter Schrank
Steve Camley
Guy Venables
Martyn Turner
Morten Morland
Matt
Chapatte
“Orbán, his masters’ voices.”
Banx
Tom Gauld
Jonsey
On a positive note, Iranian civilisation wasn’t wiped out yesterday, looks like the ceasefire is pretty crappy though. Netanyahu was always going to make things harder
Good to hear the Government speaking out more strongly in terms of Lebanon
See how it plays out I guess but it’s not looking promising
Great to see the Greens polling mid terms in Victoria, in what was a pretty crazy looking poll. It’ll be a fascinating election at the end of the year. Nepean by-election is getting closer. Does it go One Nation or Independent? Has to be some chance of either happening imo
Interesting to see Max breaking Labor brains here yesterday. Both parents Labor members, Labor throughout his student days, union staffer after graduating. A prototype Labor MP political path but he saw the light and went Green like so many others from Labor’s left
Some would argue the party moved away from him rather than him moving away from the party, as it did for many of us
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/orange-is-the-new-blue-liberals-take-on-one-nation-with-desperate-flyers-20260407-p5zlxj.html
Infighting has gripped the VIC libs, getting rid of Battin a disaster as predicted.
Hard Being Green says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 6:24 am
On a positive note, Iranian civilisation wasn’t wiped out yesterday, looks like the ceasefire is pretty crappy though. Netanyahu was always going to make things harder
Good to hear the Government speaking out more strongly in terms of Lebanon
See how it plays out I guess but it’s not looking promising
Great to see the Greens polling mid terms in Victoria, in what was a pretty crazy looking poll. It’ll be a fascinating election at the end of the year. Nepean by-election is getting closer. Does it go One Nation or Independent? Has to be some chance of either happening imo
Interesting to see Max breaking Labor brains here yesterday. Both parents Labor members, Labor throughout his student days, union staffer after graduating. A prototype Labor MP political path but he saw the light and went Green like so many others from Labor’s left
Some would argue the party moved away from him rather than him moving away from the party, as it did for many of us
____________
The party or the Australian public? Election results would say the latter.
Reading the stream of the Leavitt presser. Seems a cluster f of a ceasefire “agreement”.
But no one should have expected differently. Trump – disinterested in detail and negotiates via social media, his team of unqualified noddies, Pakistan always have a motive, Iran – still led (or controlled) by despots, Israel, Hezbollah.
This is a direct result of Trumps art of the deal. A zone of twilight, deliberate uncertainty pervades, no hard rules, norms forgotten. No clear cut responsibility or accountability. Nothing in writing. Competence jettisoned for bluster and vibes. It is Trumps happy place. Terrorists, warlords, despots and hardliners also know how to play the game.
We hold our nose and preference Labor Griff. Well most times, can’t see myself even being able to do that in NSW next year, they’ll get an empty square instead at this stage
Hard Being Green says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 6:51 am
We hold our nose and preference Labor Griff. Well most times, can’t see myself even being able to do that in NSW next year, they’ll get an empty square instead at this stage
_________
Again, do you think that the Australian public has shifted right over the past 30 years? I say 30 as I think Howard was influential. While I see it shifting central with Labor winning again, I don’t see it shifting left in the near future. Do you?
Bird of paradoxsays:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 10:58 pm
SL, a couple of pages back:
I probably should have added that a road user charge for EVs, while not ideal, might be necessary to stop the media whinging. They were especially stupid and feral earlier today:
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-sydney-4
That was Liam Bartlett. Maybe I wasn’t paying attention, but I don’t remember him being that much of a fuckwit back in the day. (He’s been on radio and TV in Perth for decades.) I guess he’s turning into a grumpy old man, Sky News style.
_______________________________
Thanks, Bop. I was curious who it was. I hope it’s not the start of some unhinged campaign to blame our lack of the diesel on the sun. Stupid shit like that resonates with way too many people.
Baby Donald throws a tiny fist waving tantrum because CNN beat him to the punch.
https://x.com/patriottakes/status/2041668305124004341
https://www.thewrap.com/media-platforms/journalism/cnn-stands-by-iran-statement-after-trump-brendan-carr-rebuke/
Hard Being Green says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 6:24 am
…
Interesting to see Max breaking Labor brains here yesterday.
…]
Interesting to see the Greens backing Loser Max yesterday.
‘Donny Dementia and the Twenty Fifth’
Nice name for a band?
It is hard to agree with this analysis. It is a matter of judgement, I suppose.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/08/war-with-no-winners-netanyahu-israel-iran-us-ceasefire
Away from the War for 8 minutes – pictures from Artemis II
https://youtu.be/zfMSCDtmDuU?si=oeddwoVutn6KGCyD
Thieves abound… or do they?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/09/truckie-boss-says-people-are-getting-desperate-as-siphoned-diesel-seen-as-sign-of-dire-crisis
This could get noisy for Labor:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/09/ndis-cuts-razor-gang-2026-federal-budget
Griff in an ideal world, Labor would be leading the population to the left rather than continuing to drift to the right
In some ways the move to the right started pre-Howard in terms of privatisation etc under Hawke and Keating although many of us would dream of having a government like that now
Not that everything falls neatly on a left right spectrum
Left wing populism is just a marketing scam. Pure Anti-labor party propaganda. Max Hyphen-blather, Nicholas Haines and well done Angus. Same. Same.
Trump has just announced a 50% tariff on countries that sell goods to Iran.
Russia and China sell goods to Iran.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 7:17 am
This could get noisy for Labor:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/09/ndis-cuts-razor-gang-2026-federal-budget
___________
Agreed. NDIS costs more than Aged care. It even costs more than Medicare. Our universal safety net. Someone has to fix the situation, but it will take political flak.
Hard Being Green says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 7:20 am
Griff in an ideal world, Labor would be leading the population to the left rather than continuing to drift to the right
In some ways the move to the right started pre-Howard in terms of privatisation etc under Hawke and Keating although many of us would dream of having a government like that now
Not that everything falls neatly on a left right spectrum
_________
I agree with you on privatisation. There was an economic move right before a sociocultural move.
I also agree with you on everything not falling neatly on a left- right spectrum. Don’t tell me you believe in horseshoes as well? 🙂
Worth reposting from TK – Trump thinks he is the smartest person in the room, always. And because he has so much experience in losing due to this flawed thinking, he has well-honed cope mechanisms.
But this only applies post fact, post shit happening. One of the copes is to share the blame – Hegseth, Whitkoff maybe even Stephen Miller – who is next to carry the can for failure?
Bad news out of Lebanon overnight
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-08/hundreds-feared-dead-israeli-strikes-lebanon/106544376
-> One of the projects is New Energy Transport’s Wilton electric truck depot
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-gives-vip-treatment-to-biofuel-electric-truck-projects-20260408-p5zmaf or https://archive.is/QeCmm
Also, NSW has a new daily battery discharge record:
https://openelectricity.org.au/records/au.nem.nsw1.battery_discharging.energy.day.high?datetime=2026-04-08T00_00_00&offset=10_00&focus=1775570400000
SL says
Thanks, Bop. I was curious who it was. I hope it’s not the start of some unhinged campaign to blame our lack of the diesel on the sun. Stupid shit like that resonates with way too many people.
Sky News has this exchange on high rotation, Bartlet worked for an oil company for two years before returning to media, Bowen handled him respectfully (more than he deserved) and I respect Bowen for his pointy end efforts for the renewable pathway.
The fossil brigade are fighting isolated battles and taking what they can from them but to have a major world crisis expose the lunacy of your energy choice, see EVs surging in popularity as well as the battery/solar successes must be ‘frightening’ for them…expect more of same.
Easter weekend ev charging ques were a point of contention but the charging industry has to come to grips with a fuel demand that outside of holidays is satisfied by home charging and only when everyone goes on holiday do they want fast chargers.
Imagine if we all had a diesel producer at home so that we didn’t need to go to a service station most of the time, only on weekends and holidays?
“Trump has just announced a 50% tariff on countries that sell goods to Iran.
Russia and China sell goods to Iran.”
In other news, Trump still doesn’t understand how tariffs work.
Israel is just doing its own thing. The USA could put pressure on them, including a threat to withdraw support, which might rein them in. However, that’s not going to happen.