The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor up a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 20%, One Nation down two to 25% and the Greens steady on 13%. Labor holds two-party leads of 55-45 over both the Coalition and One Nation. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 39% and down two on disapproval to 55%, while Angus Taylor improves not inconsiderably with a four-point increase in approval to 38% and a three-point drop in disapproval to 39%. Albanese leads 44-36 on preferred prime minister, out from 43-37. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1500.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up half a point to 30.5%, the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 24%, One Nation down two to 21.5%, and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 12%. In Labor-versus-Coalition terms, the poll finds Labor leading 56-44 based on previous election and 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (the latter measure has on average had Labor a point higher since the last election). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1411.
Roy Morgan also had an SMS poll recording an 83-17 split in favour of the government’s decision to cut fuel excise on petrol and diesel, although there was a 64-36 split against the government on satisfaction of its management of the shortage. Respondents were also invited to provide open-ended responses as to who they blamed and why, which you can read about in very great detail in an accompanying report. This poll was conducted March 26 to April 1 from a sample of 2514.
A poll I missed last Thursday was a RedBridge Group/Accent Research “super-poll” of 5563 respondents in the Financial Review. It was slightly dated in having been conducted from March 6 to 19, and did not feature a national headline result, its raison d’etre being breakdowns with significant samples. I will add the results later today from the four largest states and by age, gender, language, housing tenure and past vote to the BludgerTrack poll data archive, and stick here to the bits it’s unable to accommodate. Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group has published a cross-tabulation for generation by financial stress to illustrate the point that stressed older voters are voting One Nation while their younger equivalents are voting Greens, a point he elaborated on in an accompanying analysis piece.
My own favourite cross-tabulation is age-by-gender, which offers a too-rare look at one of the most striking electoral phenomena of our time, namely the pronounced gender gap that has developed among young voters. Among “Gen-Z” men, Labor is on 39%, the Coalition 12%, One Nation 19% and the Greens 24%; among women, Labor is on 26%, the Coalition 14%, One Nation 11% and the Greens 38%. The pattern is reflected in lesser degree among “millennials”, the result for men being Labor 36%, Coalition 16%, One Nation 26% and Greens 13%, and for women Labor 28%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 27% and Greens 15%. For “Gen-X” men, Labor is on 32%, the Coalition 18%, One Nation 35% and the Greens 6%; for women, Labor 29%, the Coalition 21%, One Nation 31% and Greens 9%. Among “baby boomer” men, Labor is on 27%, the Coalition 30%, One Nation 31% and the Greens 4%; among women, Labor 33%, the Coalition 24%, One Nation 32% and the Greens 3%.
The poll also asked four questions of the 491 respondents who said they would vote One Nation. Seventy per cent agreed their choice was a “tactic to make the major parties listen to ordinary Australians”, with only 18% disagreeing. However, 65% felt it “important to elect qualified leaders, even if we don’t always agree with them”, with 14% disagreeing. Fifty-four per cent felt “almost anything is better than the way things are going now, I just want to vote for change”, with 24% disagreeing.
The Australia Institute has an unrelated YouGov poll (hat-tip to Nadia in comments), conducted March 12 to 19 from a sample of 1502, as part of its campaign for a gas exports tax but encompassing voting intention. The result includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know” component, with the rest being Labor 26%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 24% and Greens 12%. The full report features breakdowns by state, age and gender. It also finds 60% agreeing that Australia exports too much gas, with only 10% disagreeing.
Kirsdarkesays:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 7:42 pm
@Nath
Nuclear magic.
_________________
The book/movie Z for Zacharia featured a mountain valley that was sealed off from a world destroyed by nuclear fallout but I don’t think that’s based on science.
That poll Pied referenced relates to the Fed Voting intention out of Vic.
{Comparison figures with a fortnight ago}
* ON 26 (+6)
* ALP 25 (-5)
* LNP 21 (-4)
* GRN 16 (+2) – quite a high vote for the Greens in the 2nd largest state.
* Others 12 (+1)
Link: https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/one-nation-becomes-most-popular-party-in-victoria-after-taking-lead-in-queensland-sky-news-pulse/news-story/e3f3c251ff7b38813a8e8b30d15cd5e1
YouGov is bringing a poll out every fortnight, and whilst this is good I suppose, they might end up like Roy Morgan where the primaries are bouncing around like a beach ball.
See what happens in 2 weeks time.
Ross Gittens in the SMH
Strange things have been happening in Australia while I’ve been off for a few months, taking it easy and having fun in a hospital bed. The most obvious is that we remain terribly unhappy about the cost of living, with the Iran war’s effect on petrol prices giving our money worries an almighty boost.
I read that consumer confidence is at its lowest since we started measuring it.
Sorry, but I’m not too worried about the cost of living. Strangely, it’s a sign of how well we’re doing. If you follow the polling on what people regard as our biggest problems, you’ll know that living costs are always high on the list.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cost-of-living-we-should-be-more-concerned-about-something-else-20260407-p5zlxx.html
Remember when some Laborites whined how Max C-M’s won Griffith in 2022 on the back of Liberal preferences….
——–
“This is how the Greens lost Griffith in 2025 – the swing to Labor made it a contest between Labor and the Greens, and Labor won on Liberal preferences. In the seat of Brisbane, the Greens didn’t make the final two and Labor won with Greens voter preferences.”
https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2025/jun/02/what-went-wrong-for-the-greens-in-the-australian-election#:~:text=The%20Greens%20lost%20three%20seats,their%20former%20leader%20Adam%20Bandt.
————–
Of course there is no whinging from the same Laborites that Labor won Griffith on the back of Liberal preferences in 2025.
Entropysays:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 6:56 pm
What would Mat “let’s frack all the farms” Caravan know about true energy independence?
__________________
You overestimate Canavan. This is how he thinks we should be extracting oil from shale:
https://mattcanavan.com.au/courier-mail-green-ideology-a-luxury-we-can-no-longer-afford/
BT has just been updated, and yes that Green vote seems to be gaining a bit of traction in Vic.
(I can’t even think who the Green leader is down there). Did Zac Polanski drop by for a visit?
Sitting at 14.2% in Vic, whereas in the other states it ranges 10-11 %.
We should have the Federal Resolve Poll this Sunday evening, and some Vic & QLD state voting intention data a couple of days later.
The Fed Green vote in Victoria last time (on Resolve) was actually sitting at 15%, so will be interesting to see if this jumps up a notch or so.
Demosau & Fox have recently dropped polls, so probably late April for them.
Spectre Strategy haven’t dropped a poll for a while, their last being on 20-Nov.
I’m guessing Newspoll is due to next drop on Sunday 19-Apr
“Genocide Grants.” Government awards millions to F-35 suppliers
https://michaelwest.com.au/genocide-grants-government-awards-millions-to-f-35-suppliers/
“The Federal Government has awarded $78 million in grants to Australian companies that make parts for F-35 fighter jets used by the IDF in the Gaza genocide. Stephanie Tran investigates.”
One wonders whether a truly conservative state government in Victoria, no longer pandering to the needs of low skill and system abusing migrants, will change the demographic issues of chronic illness, obesity and crime over the next fifty years.
I doubt it. The Roma people of Eastern Europe whose forebears hail from the same geographical ballpark have not integrated in a millennium and have no proclivity for leaving Europe even if they are not accepted by the mainstream.
I think I will move to Queensland in short order… or even better, Alabama.
The US military has produced half a million JDAM kits. They have effectively unlimited weaponry in a regional conflict like this one was. With aerial superiority (above short ceiling manpad range) they don’t need nukes to inflict crippling damage that could rip a country into pieces with civil unrest, by targeting water production, sewage, garbage, railways, bridges, fuel supply
Bye, Timmy.
Max lost because he was a blow hard.
Victoria key update:
Definitely True 7
Probably True 0
Probably False 2
Definitely False 5
7 false keys for opposition 2PP win.
True. But there are commensurate problems. The US has a POTUS whose attention span is childlike. The US will not risk a ground war with Iran. The US cannot stop Iran from trashing the Gulf’s oil and gas plants. The US cannot force open the SoH.
So they are doing M.A.D.
USA key update:
Definitely True 5
Probably True 2
Probably False 2
Definitely False 5
7 false keys for opposition popular vote win.
Boerwar.. why are you being snippy? Id like to contribute. Im not now, and never have thrown out rude or overly partisan statements. I have my centre-left leanings. Ive been part of this blog since… atleast 2007 when it was hosted elsewhere. I dont want a stall or soapbox. I simply want to contribute. But if contributing means I have to be snippy, ill amend my manner too it.
Don’t you worry about a thing.
If Peg and her Greens become the government they will destroy the RAAF, the RAN and the Army.
Just like that.
We will all be holy.
Or is that holey?
ISAAK
Your meta commentary was, IMO, ill-judged.
Has Timmy been doing some of his home cooking again?
ISAAKsays:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 6:14 pm
Takeaway – this blog when it comes to geopolitical/geostragic matters is –
Similar to the Melbourne cup.. the day every Australian is a horse expert.
________________
Boerwar fancies himself a significant strategic expert and does not appreciate this comment. But it is very accurate 🙂
I see there has been some new “characters” turn up on PB this past few months.
Kirsdarke says:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 7:33 pm
…
Iran is full of mountains as well, and nuclear fallout won’t be as bad for them as it would be for a flat country.
…]
Someone has been on the Dune spice.
Write one hundred times: Good Old Collingwood Forever.
Either way, I reckon this “ceasefire” is meaningless. Both sides will claim victory for a few days, then naughty BiBi will double-tap bomb a hospital or something and we’ll be straight back into it, much like Hormuz.
You can see why the Peg’s Greens’ defence policy is arsey versey: Max lost because he was popular.
You’ve got those US keys very evenly placed Arange – 7 apiece
I’m guessing it’s the Generic Congressional Vote.
You might be on the money as today’s special election for Georgia 14 wasn’t quite the huge swing I expected.
Boerwar: yes. I don’t go to restaurants which employ these kinds of people.
A reminder of how preferences flowed in S.A.
* Greens split about 85-15 to Labor over Liberal
* One Nation splits a little under 7-3 to Liberal over Labour
* Liberal splits about 2-1 to One Nation over Labor.
* Labor splits over 7-3 to Liberal over One Nation
* One Nation splits a bit over 6-4 in favour of Labor over Green
So I can see plenty of 3 & 4 way contests (with independents) in Victoria later this year.
I am not very optimistic but I am not quite as pessimistic as that. Iran would be smart to give Trump a ‘win’, plus a nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize, and to see him wander off onto Cuba or Greenland or the Supreme Court. Whatever swamp needs draining. Whatever.
This would leave Iran with just Netanyahu to deal with.
What have you got against Collingwood supporters?
“I have a simple question for the people angrily defending Ben Roberts-Smith, claiming a war hero is being persecuted by woke civilians judging soldiers in battle from the comfort of their sofas.
Do you think Australian soldiers should be allowed to shoot unarmed prisoners?
Are you fine if our soldiers shoot prisoners in the back? Machinegun a one-legged man who’d surrendered? Murder a handcuffed man already injured after being thrown off a cliff?
What would you say of Nazis who’d (allegedly) done that? Of Islamic State terrorists who’d slaughtered captives?”
Bolt on you know who.
Dio
Thanks. Interesting. Good on him.
IMO ‘Australian values’ took a bit of a tumble in response to B R-S’s arrest.
The Greens Political Party whined for years that “Liberal Preferences to Labor” were the only thing stopping a tidal wave of Green MP’s. That stopped in 2010 when Bandt won from second place using Liberal preferences. Now it’s back, along with conspiracies about redistributions when Bandt lost 5% of his primary to Labor and ended up losing the 2PP by 53 to 47.
In EV news:
+ BYD’s luxury sub-brand Denza Z9 GT which can drive up to 1,036km under CTLC conditions, and recharge from 10% to 70% in 5 minutes is heading to Europe. It sells for US$39,300 in China, so probably ~US$60k in Europe:
https://electrek.co/2026/04/07/byd-ev-5-min-charging-500-miles-range-overseas/
+ Wrt fast charging, Geely says hold my beer, we can do 10-70% in 4min 22s:
https://carnewschina.com/2026/04/07/geely-challenges-byds-flash-charging-10-70-in-4-minutes-22-seconds-and-10-97-in-8-minutes-42-seconds/
+ Meanwhile, in the US they don’t really know how to make cheap EVs:
https://insideevs.com/news/792172/dodge-slate-cheaper-american-evs/
Timmy:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 8:03 pm
If I were you, I’d delay your move to Queensland. Despite Crisafulli being adamant that juvenile crime will be a thing of the past after having enacted “Adult Crime, Adult Time” legislation, the Goldy at least is having a juvenile crime wave. Apparently, before the young commit a crime, they don’t ponder over the sentence they’ll get if they get nabbed. I know it’s hard to believe, but there you go.
_______________________________________________________________
Kirsdarke, I like the cut of Chris Murphy’s jib. He is socially progressive and is a prominent critic of Trump. And it has been said that he might run for president in ’28. He’s only 52 and is a good speaker.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MTtkaJvANI
Greens Preferences Flow to Labor – 2010 and 2025 Compared
https://antonygreen.com.au/comparing-greens-preferences-to-labor-2010-and-2025-compared/
“As Greens leader at the 2025 election, Adam Bandt lost his seat at an election where the Greens vote was roughly the same as in 2010. But 15 years had seen the development of differences in the geographic pattern of Greens support, and an increase in preference flows to Labor.
:::
Green preference now flow to Labor at a rate that the Liberal and National parties struggle to achieve between each other in three-cornered contests. In reverse, Labor preferences to the Greens where counted are often about 10% weaker in flow.
::::
When you dig down into the data, in the seven urban seats won by Independents of a ‘teal’ hue in 2025, the Greens polled 7.8% compared to more than double at 17.0% in 2010. That looks like another example of strategic voting to me, Greens supporters switching to support the candidate most likely to defeat the Liberal, or perhaps more likely than a Green to have an impact on environment policy.
The seats where Green support has risen most are gentrified former Labor inner-city seats where Liberal candidates now finish third and the real contest is between Labor and the Greens.
:::
Interestingly, in the small number of seats where Labor preferences are distributed in Liberal-Greens contests, the flow of Labor preferences to the Greens is generally weaker by about 10% than than reverse preference flows.”
Did Peg only just notice that Max lost Griffith on preferences? That’s rather old news.
And no, Labor people didn’t get their back up about Max winning on preferences (I’m sure you can find some isolated example, but not many). Only noting the hypocrisy because the Greens like you harp on it so much whenever Labor stayed ahead of the Greens on Liberal preferences.
As someone who had a front row seat to Adam Bandt’s tanty about right wing preferences when Jennifer Kanis won the state seat of Melbourne for Labor, despite the fact that Bandt himself won on preferences the first time he got elected, I am quite clear that the ground zero hypocrisy on this topic belonged to Adam Bandt. The record supports it.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-22/labor-claims-victory-in-melbourne-by-election/4146382
“We are the lead runners in these seats and parties like the Labor Party are only able to get in to these seats with deals through the likes of Family First,” he told Channel Ten.
(there was no such deal, of course. He was a liar as well as a hypocrite).
Melbourne 2010
https://results.aec.gov.au/15508/website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-228.htm
Bandt second on primary vote to Labor, needed Liberal Party preferences to win. OH NOES!
This is all old news Peg but bringing it up doesn’t actually work for your side. I have the receipts.
Antony Green again…
“Once minor parties were viewed as bit-players in Australian politics, mere preference conduits for the major parties. Today the Greens are important in their own right electorally, and through elected representation play an important role in Australian Parliaments.
Greens support is now high enough to guarantee the election of a Senator from each state at half-Senate elections. Were it not for party defections, the Greens would have a permanent team of 12 Senators in the 76 seat Senate.
As was highlighted by winning four House seats at the 2022 Federal election, the Greens are now competitive in up to a dozen House seats. Despite being reduced to one House seat in 2025, the Greens remain competitive with Labor and the Coalition.
The Greens won their first general election seat in 2010 on Liberal preferences, and would have won more seats since were it not for the Coalition’s decision since 2013 to put Labor candidates ahead of the Greens on how-to-vote preference recommendations.”
———–
A-wishin’ and a-hoping for the demise of the Greens (a political party – who knew) – not going to happen.
The establishment parties will do whatever it takes to maintain BAU and the status quo. As the trend in their declining vote share indicates, an increasing number of voters are seeing the light and voting elsewhere.
Nicholas @ #336 Wednesday, April 8th, 2026 – 7:20 pm
I love my nightly catch up of fiction.
Ha. I think it’s time for Chuck to consider his future. He’s largely been ineffective as Senate Minority Leader
———————————
I agree. But we shouldn’t ignore that he got some of Biden’s big agenda bills through Congress.
He was unfortunately unable to herd the WV cat on electoral reforms.
Pegasus says:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 9:01 pm
Antony Green again…
“Once minor parties were viewed as bit-players in Australian politics, mere preference conduits for the major parties. Today the Greens are important in their own right electorally, and through elected representation play an important role in Australian Parliaments.
Greens support is now high enough to guarantee the election of a Senator from each state at half-Senate elections. Were it not for party defections, the Greens would have a permanent team of 12 Senators in the 76 seat Senate.
As was highlighted by winning four House seats at the 2022 Federal election, the Greens are now competitive in up to a dozen House seats. Despite being reduced to one House seat in 2025, the Greens remain competitive with Labor and the Coalition.
The Greens won their first general election seat in 2010 on Liberal preferences, and would have won more seats since were it not for the Coalition’s decision since 2013 to put Labor candidates ahead of the Greens on how-to-vote preference recommendations.”
———–
A-wishin’ and a-hoping for the demise of the Greens (a political party – who knew) – not going to happen.
The establishment parties will do whatever it takes to maintain BAU and the status quo. As the trend in their declining vote share indicates, an increasing number of voters are seeing the light and voting elsewhere.
_______________
You have a curious opinion about One Nation voters. They are seeing the light? Are you manifesting horseshoes? 🙂
Gulf countries report attacks after ‘ceasefire deal:’.
Iran attacked Israel and Israel attacked Iran
The main reason MCM won in 2022 and lost in 2025 is that the first contest was Grn vs Lib (ALP prefs are friendly to the Greens, despite the deranged hysteria from some Labor types on here), while the second was Grn vs ALP (Lib prefs, which are not). Two different games – you’re comparing apples and oranges. In 2022 he was was playing on easy mode and won; in 2025 it flipped to hard mode and he lost – his colleague in Ryan won on a lower vote because she remained on easy mode. It’s the same reason the Greens have never quite managed to win Wills, despite a higher vote.
Swap Green for ON and Labor for Liberal, and you can see the same thing in the SA election last month. Of ON’s four wins, two were ON/Lib contests (hard mode) where they started way ahead but barely scraped in, while two were ON/ALP contests (easy mode) and were much easier wins off a lower primary vote. For Wills, think Chaffey (another ON/Lib contest) – primary vote in the 30s, but they didn’t come close.
As for Bandt: I reckon the moment he lost his seat was when he showed up on stage at a nightclub in a giant toothbrush costume. It was to spruik a policy I agree with, but he looked like one of the Wiggles.
Griff
That is pep talk by Pegasus to Greens political party members. 🙂
Griff, I am happy for you that you have a discredited political theory to grasp onto to misrepresent any views I might have, even If I have not expressed such a view you imply. It is obvious to any impartial observor that the issues I am passionate about are poles apart from ON views and policies.
Mighty Pegasus
The is only one ‘establishment’ party in Australia: the United Anti-Labor Party, of which you are a card carrying member. … no better than Bridget McKenzie. Just waving different pom poms.
Max lost nearly 3% on primary (he likes to gloss over this part) which suggests he wasn’t that popular.
In 2022 Max led on primary, Labor was 3rd behind the Libs, Max wins and deserves to win.
In 2025 Labor led on primary, Labor wins. Now, Labor could still have won on Liberal preferences from 2nd, but it’s important to note that they also led on first preferences. There is absolutely no basis for Max fanboys to pretend there was some kind of theft of the seat or that he didn’t lose popularity and yet here we are again with the complaints. Max lost in 2025 fair and square. He wouldn’t have won under any system his fans could try and claim should have been in place instead of preferential voting.
Also, there was zero other left wing parties and zero Indies in Griffith in 2025 to blame for taking away votes.
And yet you continue to post celebrations of One Nation reducing the “major party vote”.
The Sloan Zone on BR-S
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNFNc4IZCRM
Some extraordinary numbers on housing construction released today.
With my long running concern over the woeful completions rate to meet Australia’s growing population – completions continue to trend lower at the end of 2025, but dwelling commences are surging. This suggests a huge housing backlog building up in the construction sector:
The truly terrifying numbers are in the average construction costs – just focusing on apartments, they jumped almost 20% (about $90k) just in the year to 2024-25. Queensland costs have jumped almost 70% in the last two years, despite average floor area remaining little changed over that time:
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/building-and-construction/building-activity-australia/dec-2025#key-statistics
It gives me great joy to see mighty Pegasus and young Nicholas pump the tyres of Max Hyphen-blather.
Y’all repugnant to ordinary Australians. As popular as a bag of sick.
Keep up the good work. 10 term Labor Government.
Will today’s peace plan hold? Richard J Murphy, British political economist and commentator, doesn’t think so.
https://youtube.com/shorts/1HoTjlHbZgM?si=3bkGPBMQ8kvssL-g (Short ~ 2 mins)
We’ll see in coming days.