The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor up a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 20%, One Nation down two to 25% and the Greens steady on 13%. Labor holds two-party leads of 55-45 over both the Coalition and One Nation. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 39% and down two on disapproval to 55%, while Angus Taylor improves not inconsiderably with a four-point increase in approval to 38% and a three-point drop in disapproval to 39%. Albanese leads 44-36 on preferred prime minister, out from 43-37. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1500.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up half a point to 30.5%, the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 24%, One Nation down two to 21.5%, and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 12%. In Labor-versus-Coalition terms, the poll finds Labor leading 56-44 based on previous election and 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (the latter measure has on average had Labor a point higher since the last election). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1411.
Roy Morgan also had an SMS poll recording an 83-17 split in favour of the government’s decision to cut fuel excise on petrol and diesel, although there was a 64-36 split against the government on satisfaction of its management of the shortage. Respondents were also invited to provide open-ended responses as to who they blamed and why, which you can read about in very great detail in an accompanying report. This poll was conducted March 26 to April 1 from a sample of 2514.
A poll I missed last Thursday was a RedBridge Group/Accent Research “super-poll” of 5563 respondents in the Financial Review. It was slightly dated in having been conducted from March 6 to 19, and did not feature a national headline result, its raison d’etre being breakdowns with significant samples. I will add the results later today from the four largest states and by age, gender, language, housing tenure and past vote to the BludgerTrack poll data archive, and stick here to the bits it’s unable to accommodate. Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group has published a cross-tabulation for generation by financial stress to illustrate the point that stressed older voters are voting One Nation while their younger equivalents are voting Greens, a point he elaborated on in an accompanying analysis piece.
My own favourite cross-tabulation is age-by-gender, which offers a too-rare look at one of the most striking electoral phenomena of our time, namely the pronounced gender gap that has developed among young voters. Among “Gen-Z” men, Labor is on 39%, the Coalition 12%, One Nation 19% and the Greens 24%; among women, Labor is on 26%, the Coalition 14%, One Nation 11% and the Greens 38%. The pattern is reflected in lesser degree among “millennials”, the result for men being Labor 36%, Coalition 16%, One Nation 26% and Greens 13%, and for women Labor 28%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 27% and Greens 15%. For “Gen-X” men, Labor is on 32%, the Coalition 18%, One Nation 35% and the Greens 6%; for women, Labor 29%, the Coalition 21%, One Nation 31% and Greens 9%. Among “baby boomer” men, Labor is on 27%, the Coalition 30%, One Nation 31% and the Greens 4%; among women, Labor 33%, the Coalition 24%, One Nation 32% and the Greens 3%.
The poll also asked four questions of the 491 respondents who said they would vote One Nation. Seventy per cent agreed their choice was a “tactic to make the major parties listen to ordinary Australians”, with only 18% disagreeing. However, 65% felt it “important to elect qualified leaders, even if we don’t always agree with them”, with 14% disagreeing. Fifty-four per cent felt “almost anything is better than the way things are going now, I just want to vote for change”, with 24% disagreeing.
The Australia Institute has an unrelated YouGov poll (hat-tip to Nadia in comments), conducted March 12 to 19 from a sample of 1502, as part of its campaign for a gas exports tax but encompassing voting intention. The result includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know” component, with the rest being Labor 26%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 24% and Greens 12%. The full report features breakdowns by state, age and gender. It also finds 60% agreeing that Australia exports too much gas, with only 10% disagreeing.
Dr Fumbles McStupidsays:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 12:36 pm
B. S. Fairman says:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 12:31 pm
…………………………………………..
And Russia, selling all that sanction free Oil at record prices
===========================================
Russia can “sell” all the oil they like; not sure how they get paid if they can’t ship it though.
Looks like Ukraine doing an incredible job in destroying/disabling Russian infrastructure in oil extraction, but mainly in preventing oil movement across and out of Russia.
Go the good guys!!!
This is almost a month old; the next update is due in the next week.
Can someone here convince me that this is a bad idea.
As they say in Arabic يخدم عدوّه بلا قصد
MI
Then for the love of your sanity, don’t read the prequels written by the man’s son.
When the SoH was closed, there was a lot of Russian oil afloat with nowhere much to go except, by way of the ‘shadow fleet’ or ‘dark fleet’, to places like China. That oil was at a discount price because of sanctions. It was suddenly on the market at a premium price because it was afloat and it was on the right side of the SoH.
The consequent financial sugar hit was a one-off.
China and Russia have co-operated to build new overland oil conduits with considerable daily capacity. The oil flowing through that pipeline suddenly became more valuable because of the closure of the SoH.
Those flows are continuing but the price will go down.
Ukraine seems to have degraded Russia’s overall oil export capacity by about 40%. (Figures subject to war propaganda needs).
Coincidentally, Russia has the Ukraine electricity grid operating at around 60% of capacity. (Figures subject to war propaganda needs).
Which is presumably why Zelensky has offered a deal to Putin: you leave our grid alone and we will leave your oil exports alone.
Barely a day goes by that Chris Bowen doesn’t mention renewables. In addition, the media seem to have largely ignored this from last week:
https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/timayres/media-releases/615-billion-brought-forward-support-business
In effect, the govt is using its net zero policies as fiscal stimulus.
Those of you with an interest in evolving war technology would have noticed that, increasingly, wire netting is being used as protection against FPVs.
Think of chook netting wire strung for many kms above and along side roads going to the front. Users approach the front being channeled like a flock of chooks.
The netting might also be draped around tanks and other military vehicles.
The netting exploits a weakness of drones vis-a-vis missiles and artillery shells.
The latter two are are, by their nature and their velocity and the nature of the construction, unlikely to notice chicken wire on their way through to whatever awaits below.
Drones, as currently designed and operated, are generally intended to destroy their target by touching them and then exploding. Bumping into chicken wire is problematic.
No doubt the Greens posters on Bludger will forward this to Max the CFMEU Think Tankie for his consideration as he reforms the Greens Policy to have No Defence Policy and No National Security Policy except that which might be provided by the UN and by Peace Studies 101.
The CBA have this comparison:
(With further analysis on ABC Business Live.)
Thank you. I see some overlap and some considerable number of underlaps.
Well, yes, I think it’s good …but against that they want to slap a great big new tax on ordinary people transitioning to an EV. Nonsensical.
That’s speculation, Rex. Wait for the budget – it will probably include a road user charge starting in a year or 3.
Australia needs a nuclear deterrent and a large submarine fleet. We should aim for heavily armed neutrality. Our finance, insurance, and real estate sectors have a lot of fat that could be diverted to the military. We could even introduce a draft for financiers and property developers.
Take it up with Max. Apparently he is a really good listener.
SLsays:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 4:31 pm
That’s speculation, Rex. Wait for the budget – it will probably include a road user charge starting in a year or 3.
===================================================
Or plain venilla FUD!
I probably should have added that a road user charge for EVs, while not ideal, might be necessary to stop the media whinging. They were especially stupid and feral earlier today:
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-sydney-4
frednksays:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 3:14 pm
I have a problem with Ben Roberts-Smith’s arrest being so public.
===============================================
Most suspected mass murderers arrest are generally fairly public. Why should he be treated any different?
Nicholas
I imagine a regiment of forensic accountants could be quite vicious.
Personally I think the submarines would be a more effective deterrent.
Rex:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 3:56 pm
If he’s indigent, he’d be eligible for Cth legal aid. If he’s flush with funds, though, he should pay to defend the charges, like anyone else charged with a Cth offence. I tend to think, however, that he’d want the very best legal representation, which I doubt legal aid would cover. He may therefore have to turn to his powerful and monied friends.
The government will pay a high price for this EV tax.
FFS there’s a million other better ways of raising revenue to pay for roads than creating a huge disincentive to transition to an EV.
Can’t believe people just blindly fall in behind Albo on this stupidity.
SL
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/transcripts/press-conference-sydney-4
I have advocated for this a few times lately. Whilst increases in cost are never popular, the current moment is as good a time as the government will ever get to do it, since EVs have a major advantage in being cheaper to run. As long as the charge was no more than what an equivalent weight ICE car would have paid in fuel tax, it is defensible.
If worried about public blowback, the obvious way to sell it is to combine it with an overhaul of tax concessions for vehicles, shifting current benefits for “freight” vehicles including utes(!) to EVs.
If the current free ride of EVs on road maintenance charges continues, as EV numbers increase, it will only get harder to rain in later.
Mavis, I get what you’re saying re BRS.
But I just personally feel that combat veterans can be afforded certain standards above regular citizens.
I wouldn’t be against his legal defence of choice being funded by Govt.
> as EV numbers increase
Hopefully not an issue as the plan is to disincentivize the purchase of EVs
I wanted to highlight another area of boring administrative reform, that is nevertheless necessary. The current situation is neither cheap nor efficient.
I understand that the Federal government is looking at adopting national skill registration schemes for occupations to enable workers to work more efficiently across State boundaries. Electricians and Engineers are among the first occupations proposed. Engineers Australia has made a submission on this.
https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/sites/default/files/2026-04/NCC_MR_Review_Cth_Engineers_Australia.pdf
Good! Current arrangements are hopelessly inconsistent and inefficient. What constitutes safe practice (and the laws of physics) does not change across State borders. All the current setup does is make our labour market less efficient. There are good examples in the EA submission of why the current rules don’t work well.
As an Engineer, I shouldn’t need separate practice registrations in Qld and Victoria.
@Rex Douglas at 4:56pm
Or, maybe if he didn’t want this then he could have made the decision to not commit war crimes?
US crude oil price is down 16%, while Brent crude oil is down 15% after two-week ceasefire.
Rex Douglas, Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 4:29 pm:
Rex, you really like channeling Tony Abbott with that little slogan of his, don’t you? What’s this now: twice in as many days?
The fuel excise raises about $16B.
A 25% levy on gas exports could raise about $17B.
BANG !
https://thepoint.com.au/news/260327-acoss-backs-gas-export-tax-as-momentum-builds-across-parliament
I see that the Greens middle class inner urban rent seekers are out in force.
EVs are cars. They use roads.
Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 4:52 pm
FFS there’s a million other better ways of raising revenue to pay for roads than creating a huge disincentive to transition to an EV.
Can’t believe people just blindly fall in behind Albo on this stupidity.
_________________________________________
Firstly, its Chalmers and the states, not Albo. The states are particularly keen – they can see a big bucket of money coming their way.
Secondly, almost a year ago I was posting that a road user charge should be applied to all vehicles. I stopped because it’s not going to happen.
Thirdly, it’s not a matter of blindly falling in behind the govt. My view is a minority one on this issue -there is no point dwelling on it – that’s democracy. In order to please the masses, stupid things need to be done.
SL
You’re not ‘blind’.
Sorry if I offended you.
e.g.w. says
“I did see that Iran said they would share the revenue from SoH with Oman.
I do not recall seeing that the proposal was a 50/50 share.”
—————-
Yes. That’s not been said.
Whoever is doing the heavy lifting of collecting the tolls would keep the lion’s share, I think.
The SAS are our most well-trained military personnel. They, above all others, have a clear understanding of what is legal and what is not on the battlefield. If one chooses to cross that line, they deserve to face the full force of the law.
Rex:
Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 4:56 pm
Legal Aid has a finite budget. If he wanted a Brett Walker, a Robert Richter, or a Winston Terracini to defend him, their hourly fee would be in the region of $1,500–$2,000. His trial could go for weeks, perhaps longer.
I don’t understand your rationale for this. Why should a former Army corporal be afforded special
treatment? It would set an undesirable and very costly precedent.
No worries, Rex. No offence taken.
Socrates
Is there not a risk that the minimum national standard would be the lowest common denominator? A State government that wished to get out of the race to the bottom and revert to past standards could not do so.
Mavis
I just feel that anyone who has entered the field of combat for this country can be afforded the legal defence of their choice if put on trial for an alleged war crime.
They are innocent until found guilty, afterall.
That’s just how I feel.
There is a massive difference between the quoted Oil price and the price you can actually get oil at. This is because the quoted oil price is the future price for delivery at the end of the month. So Brent is currently being said to be $95 a barrel but to actually buy it today would cost more like $125 a barrel. So there is quite a lot of discussion in the commodity space about the difference between the “Paper” price and the “Physically” price. It is not unusual for there to be a difference but never as large as it is at the moment.
SL
I’ve got a good feeling in my bones re the baggers this week. 😉
30,000 Australians served in Afghanistan.
Something like 29,9950 of them behaved according to the ROE.
The charges are not grey areas relative to the ROE.
BRS was feted by the right and I am absolutely certain he was being lined up by Stokes, Murdoch etc to be installed into an electorate like McPherson in 2025 and rapidly promoted to a position like Deputy Liberal leader to attract far-right types who would be moving to One Nation otherwise.
BRS wore a Crusader cross patch to Afghanistan and has a Crusader Jerusalem cross along with a Spartan tattoo. The LNP and Stokes knew this and they still started the process to bring him into the fold.
Thankfully other members of the ADF stood up for the truth.
Thanks.
Perhaps some of the brass should be appropriately held to account for poor management of personnel…?
Fair enough, Rex.
frednk @ #245 Wednesday, April 8th, 2026 – 3:21 pm
Ah. Thanks for that. Memories are slippery things. Funny, I hadn’t even remembered watching the movie, yet I remembered that line. Time ages one. (Was that the movie with Sting in it?)
Boerwar @ #280 Wednesday, April 8th, 2026 – 5:08 pm
Another potholer
Rex, wrt the Baggers. I don’t share your optimism. I think it’s probably best to abandon hope and look forward to another soul-crushing loss.
‘I wouldn’t be against his legal defence of choice being funded by Govt.’
I would. The prosecutors have decided that there is sufficient evidence to go to trial, and this against a VC winner, someone that NO-ONE in Australia wants to believe is a crimminal.
Given that i think quite a lage ammount was spent on a defamation action he lost and had the finding of:
“ended in a court finding that, on the balance of probabilities, allegations he was responsible for, or complicit in the deaths of four detainees in Afghanistan, were substantially true.”
Well … that kind of points the way to testing the eidence to see if its provable to a crimminal law standard.
And, if he could somehow fund a big defamation case like that, he can fund his own defense.
Fwark ……. defamation is a very chancy area of the law isnt it? Seems to make a lot of trouble for accusers when it makes public things they would rather not be.
This is a pertinent article:
https://thedriven.io/2026/04/08/electric-vehicle-road-fee-would-hit-outer-suburbs-hardest-and-could-throttle-record-adoption/
Chris Jones’ (from the AEVA) btl comment pretty well sums up my thoughts on the issue, apart from the fuel excise bit.
The cut in fuel excise was one of those stupid things govts need to do in order to keep the masses on side, as Emmo explains:
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2026/04/06/energy-crisis-intervention