The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor up a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 20%, One Nation down two to 25% and the Greens steady on 13%. Labor holds two-party leads of 55-45 over both the Coalition and One Nation. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 39% and down two on disapproval to 55%, while Angus Taylor improves not inconsiderably with a four-point increase in approval to 38% and a three-point drop in disapproval to 39%. Albanese leads 44-36 on preferred prime minister, out from 43-37. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1500.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up half a point to 30.5%, the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 24%, One Nation down two to 21.5%, and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 12%. In Labor-versus-Coalition terms, the poll finds Labor leading 56-44 based on previous election and 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (the latter measure has on average had Labor a point higher since the last election). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1411.
Roy Morgan also had an SMS poll recording an 83-17 split in favour of the government’s decision to cut fuel excise on petrol and diesel, although there was a 64-36 split against the government on satisfaction of its management of the shortage. Respondents were also invited to provide open-ended responses as to who they blamed and why, which you can read about in very great detail in an accompanying report. This poll was conducted March 26 to April 1 from a sample of 2514.
A poll I missed last Thursday was a RedBridge Group/Accent Research “super-poll” of 5563 respondents in the Financial Review. It was slightly dated in having been conducted from March 6 to 19, and did not feature a national headline result, its raison d’etre being breakdowns with significant samples. I will add the results later today from the four largest states and by age, gender, language, housing tenure and past vote to the BludgerTrack poll data archive, and stick here to the bits it’s unable to accommodate. Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group has published a cross-tabulation for generation by financial stress to illustrate the point that stressed older voters are voting One Nation while their younger equivalents are voting Greens, a point he elaborated on in an accompanying analysis piece.
My own favourite cross-tabulation is age-by-gender, which offers a too-rare look at one of the most striking electoral phenomena of our time, namely the pronounced gender gap that has developed among young voters. Among “Gen-Z” men, Labor is on 39%, the Coalition 12%, One Nation 19% and the Greens 24%; among women, Labor is on 26%, the Coalition 14%, One Nation 11% and the Greens 38%. The pattern is reflected in lesser degree among “millennials”, the result for men being Labor 36%, Coalition 16%, One Nation 26% and Greens 13%, and for women Labor 28%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 27% and Greens 15%. For “Gen-X” men, Labor is on 32%, the Coalition 18%, One Nation 35% and the Greens 6%; for women, Labor 29%, the Coalition 21%, One Nation 31% and Greens 9%. Among “baby boomer” men, Labor is on 27%, the Coalition 30%, One Nation 31% and the Greens 4%; among women, Labor 33%, the Coalition 24%, One Nation 32% and the Greens 3%.
The poll also asked four questions of the 491 respondents who said they would vote One Nation. Seventy per cent agreed their choice was a “tactic to make the major parties listen to ordinary Australians”, with only 18% disagreeing. However, 65% felt it “important to elect qualified leaders, even if we don’t always agree with them”, with 14% disagreeing. Fifty-four per cent felt “almost anything is better than the way things are going now, I just want to vote for change”, with 24% disagreeing.
The Australia Institute has an unrelated YouGov poll (hat-tip to Nadia in comments), conducted March 12 to 19 from a sample of 1502, as part of its campaign for a gas exports tax but encompassing voting intention. The result includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know” component, with the rest being Labor 26%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 24% and Greens 12%. The full report features breakdowns by state, age and gender. It also finds 60% agreeing that Australia exports too much gas, with only 10% disagreeing.
SP bookies and oil refineries: two national resources we’ve lost that got a PB mention this week.
God knows what we’ll do if the nation ever needs someone who can do mental arithmetic.
Kirsdarke:
Cheers. Looks very promising then.
How strong are Hungary’s democratic institutions, anyway? Any chance Orban could pull a Maduro and remain in power after losing the election, or would he have no choice but to step down?
Ashasays:
Friday, April 10, 2026 at 9:12 pm
Kirsdarke:
Cheers. Looks very promising then.
How strong are Hungary’s democratic institutions, anyway? Any chance Orban could pull a Maduro and remain in power after losing the election, or would he have no choice but to step down?
================================================
Hungary would lose EU membership if the EU was convinced that had happened.
What’s fascinating about this election in Hungary is that Orban’s opposition pretty much fully amalgamated into the Tisza Party so they have a chance to finally defeat him as a united front.
We’re talking about Moderates, Liberals, Socialists, Greens, all of them are running dead so that Orban’s Fidesz can be defeated by Tisza.
It’s like in Dragonball Z when Goku charges a Spirit Bomb to defeat the great evil.
Among those of us who finished school before home smart phones, home computers and calculators, many are good at mental arithmetic and memorising stuff like phone numbers.
Kirsdarke:
God, I hope it works out better for Tisza than the Spirit Bomb usually did for Goku.
TPOF wasn’t a saint but there was a great deal of hypocrisy in people shouting him down while moaning about being silenced (they were not silenced) or false claiming they were being accused of anti Semitism just for criticising Israel, often pre-emptively before anyone said a word.
In the immediate aftermath of the Bondi attacks there was some really terrible stuff said here that permanently reduced my opinion of various commentators who happily weighed in about “the Jewish community” as a monolith despite many warnings on the subject, and pretty much treated a terrible tragedy as if the only thing that mattered was how it affected their ability to advocate against Israel and fuck the safety and security of Jewish Australians. I wasn’t really around for a couple of weeks because I got sick of responding to it. So I’m not really surprised that after that TPOF got a bit further radicalised against certain commenters here who really ought to do some self examination for once in their lives instead of being self satisfied that they drove someone off who probably agreed with them about 95% of things and even about Netanyahu.
There’s always the Dungeons & Dragons players.
Folk of a certain age can still remember their first six-digit phone number. Sadly, not much call for that now.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 7:20 am
Trump has just announced a 50% tariff on countries that sell goods to Iran.
Russia and China sell goods to Iran.
This language is entirely misleading. Tariffs are not imposed on “countries”. They are imposed on US buyers of goods imported into the US from the designated exporting countries.
The indirect effect of these measures is to shrink the extra-territorial US economy – that is, the productive capacity located outside the US that is aimed at serving US consumption and that is paid for with US currency.
Trump is taxing US consumers and shrinking a component of the US economy. He is adding to the costs of war and the magnitude of defeat in this Asian war.
@Luigi
Much as I wish that talent was going to at least be in demand in the event we are reduced to a post apocalyptic society, there’s probably a mountain of solar powered pocket calculators out there somewhere to keep it obsolete.
Arrest staged.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUDtCgSBivY
Luigi:
I can remember two phone numbers. The old home landline number from when I was kid (I remember when they switched from six to eight digits too), and the mobile number I’ve had for most of my adult life. I think I used to have a few of my friends’ landlines memorised back in the days when landlines were still a thing, but they were long ago lost to the ether.
I have a friend with an ability to remember mobile numbers that just astonishes me. Mine, her husband’s, both her parents’, at least a couple of friends, she can rattle them all off just like that. She’s just as astonished that I can’t remember any phone numbers besides my own.
Steve: having shorter phone numbers back then helped. Outside the big cities before the late 90s, they were only six digits and the first two were a town prefix, so if you were ringing someone in the same town you only had four digits to remember. (The catch was living near an area code boundary – suddenly you’re dialling something like 09 574 xxxx for a town half an hour’s drive away.) Now with mobiles, it’s 04 and then eight digits – I can’t remember the last time I bothered to memorise one.
Is it just me or is the media coverage of the Iran war the worst in living memory for actual information?
I am not old enough for Vietnam, but from Gulf War 1 onwards there was plenty of information available about the facts of the war. Not every little thing as you’d expect given the operational secrecy needs of armies in wartime, but a pretty good idea of what was going on. Even in Ukraine we have a pretty reasonable idea of where the front it, what’s been destroyed or not, and who’s attacking where.
I am not convinced any media source has published anything more informative and reliable than the parties’ duelling twitter feeds and press conferences, none of which is remotely trustworthy. It’s all he said she said reporting and opinion pieces.
I get that it’s hard to get reliable sources within Iranian borders to look at stuff but honestly. We got 5 times better reporting on what was going on within IS territory.
Re phone numbers, I only remember the days of 7 digits. I still like to look out for increasingly rare instances of spotting old signage that still has the 7 digit phone number. I don’t go digging in 20,000 year old rock layers for signage with the 6 digit numbers I’m afraid but well done to those who do still remember, and congratulations on your telegram from King Charles.
@Asha at 9:16pm
Yeah, same. It does look promising though, they have a double-digit lead in the non-government aligned polls and appear to have momentum moving toward them.
I suppose we’ll find out on Monday morning whether or not Orban pulls off something like this.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/XO3ROCrLFXA
@Arky at 9:31pm
Well, it’s what we get when countries elect and support cynical and psychotic liars as their leaders.
Maybe the main mission of the Artemis II rocket is to establish a point to put a giant laser on the moon? Who the heck knows?
‘Publicus poll out for Hungary, covering 7-9 April (compared with the previous one on 27-30 March)
Tisza: 52% (+3)
Fidesz: 39% (-1)
Our Homeland: 5% (-1)
Others: 4% (-2)
This one does cover the period where Vance was simping for Orban over there.’
my memory for Hungarian politics is lacking….and i do know you have enlightened me before….but age and memory are betraying me….who are the good guys again?
Seven digits?
In my parts, at least, we had six until the early-mid nineties and then they added two more at the start.
Shows you what Channel Nine thinks of their journalists if they think AI slop is an improvement on doing their own writing and research and want them to create more AI slop.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2026/04/09/nine-journalists-the-age-sydney-morning-herald-artificial-intelligence-use/
I would be more up in arms about this if it wasn’t Channel Nine. Management might have a point.
I can still do coefficient correlations mentally if I had to
Arky:
I’m mostly surprised its taken them this long to outsource their journalism to LLMs.
NewsCorp got onto it years ago.
@The Albonator at 9:36pm
Fidesz: The Baddies under Putin lackey Viktor Orban.
Tisza: The party that opposes Orban.
Our Homeland: Unapologetic blood-and-soil nazis.
Others: Others.
@Albonator
Orban (Putin’s lackey) is Fidesz.
Tisza is the opposition.
The trouble with the polling over there is it seems every pollster is aligned with a side and their polling says their side is winning. In the past Fidesz has historically outperformed the polling to some extent but I’m not sure the polling had such a clear partisan divide in past cycles either.
The polling collectively underrated Orban so far in 2022 (including pollsters active at this election and considered opposition aligned) that I will basically only believe Orban has lost when I see it in actual election results, not from any Hungarian polling.
Arky – Certainly the Americans have not been as keen on sharing details of their operations as much as they have been in the past. The damage being done in the Gulf states is being supressed by the local governments. Iran is not allowing many journalists into the country, so there is little coverage of what is going on inside the country.
During Gulf War I they were briefing constantly and would hold hour long press conferences daily. Lots of information during that war.
During Iraq, they were more interested in embedding journalists with the forces going into Iraq and controlling what they could say in that way. During occupation, the media control was lost and the briefings dropped off.
The lobby is a political force.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FPZFYahaR4
Asha: in WA, it was 7 digits in Perth (area code 09, and numbers started with 2-5), and 6 digits in the country areas (090, 091, 096 to 099). It got standardised to 08 + 8 digits for the whole state in 1997 or 1998, to the annoyance of country people who didn’t want extra numbers.
I saw a city number with six digits the other week, at a building site on Beaufort St in Mt Lawley – the building next door was getting demolished and an old ad it covered when it went up came back to the sunlight. God knows how long that had been buried.
David:
I’m pretty good at working out what the cost of any given purchase overseas is in Aussie dollars, but apart from that the only maths I can do in my head these days is addition, subtraction, and basic multiplication and division.
I remember the hubbub about phone numbers in the 90’s, mainly because I associate it with this scene from Stargate when it was revealed that it was possible to dial 8 chevrons instead of the usual 7 with a power boost.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z72GiUz2VI8
One of my favourite episodes.
Publicus poll out for Hungary, covering 7-9 April (compared with the previous one on 27-30 March)
Tisza: 52% (+3)
Fidesz: 39% (-1)
Our Homeland: 5% (-1)
Others: 4% (-2)
This one does cover the period where Vance was simping for Orban over there.
thanks Gents…(presumably)
That looks like a pretty clear win for the Opposition, provided that the election is reasonably free and fair.
Hungary has a unicameral Parliament with a complex voting system which looks a bit like Mixed Member Proportional: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Assembly_(Hungary)
There was always 131 241 – Pizza Hut
And who could forget – 1800 123 400 – on everyone’s fridge thanks to John Howard.
@B.S. Fairman at 9:58pm
Yes, I remember that. Mainly from the parodies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwBs7cUQ37Y
Not one fridge in Australia was bombed.
Wasn’t Pizza Hut 13 11 66? I vaguely remember an ad jingle.
Heh. “Be alert. Australia needs lerts.”
Oh, and “firteen firteen firty two” for Lube Mobile. Now it’s stuck in your head too. 😛
Those of us who finished high school before PCs can do mental arithmetic. I still find it very useful doing analysis on a spreadsheet to have a rough idea of the answer to expect. It makes finding errors much faster.
As for memorising numbers it’s practice till it becomes a skill. I can remember the six digit phone numbers of most of my friends from (primary) school. I can remember my Visa number (16 digit) within a few weeks of getting a new card.
1300 6555 06 – The Reading and Writing Hotline. Not much use to cookers I’m afraid. Have you ever tried to read and comprehend “there” (sic.) comments??
https://youtu.be/uyV_Q-OQ9cE?si=JH7hVY_lB4CHCgml
Heh, Comedy Inc really was savage about those Steve Liebmann terrorism ads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0iUi_cO-14
God I wish they’d release a DVD boxset one day, they were the true successors to Fast Forward/Full Frontal.
Asha – if an anti-Labor government gets elected a ban on Dungeons and Dragons would be a valid idea for whoever is assigned minister for education ans children.
Also, a net negative migration number is not enough. We need a promise to limit the number of temporary visa holders in this country at any one time. And temporary should mean temporary. When your time’s up without a meaningful reason for permanency, then you go back to where you came from.
Timmy, who I hope for his own sake is just trolling us all:
And here I was thinking Jack Chick had been dead for years. Turns out he moved to Australia and became a One Nation supporter.
If you guys are looking for some other great modern policies that will resonate with contemporary voters, might I suggest adding Hinchcliffe-era Doctor Who, Marilyn Manson, and Pokemon to your ban list?
Lube mobile 13 30 32 was one I can always remember
Pizza Hut was 481 11 11, that jingle I remember!
Wat Tyler says:
Friday, April 10, 2026 at 10:05 pm
Wasn’t Pizza Hut 13 11 66? I vaguely remember an ad jingle.
___________
Just a digit away from the Poisons Info Line: 13 11 26.
There was speculation earlier as to whether TPOF is Jewish. I’m fairly confident that he isn’t. I vaguely remember him saying at one point that although not Jewish himself he had some kind of a connection with the Jewish community that gave him an understanding of their perspective on things. Or something along those lines.
Light hearts and late nights.
I finished high school before PCs. University too. I’ve owned slide rules (plural). I’ve never been good at remembering telephone numbers or doing mental arithmetic. Tedious. I loved it when electronic calculators appeared (in year 12), and when home computers appeared they changed my developing career from white lab-coats (physics) to numerical modelling (mining, nuclear waste), and then in quick succession to information management (environmental), systems design (waste management) and corporate change management (waste, transport, water supply). Then I retired. I’m still crap at adding numbers. I can’t live without a computer of my own. Mobile phones don’t cut it, but they are good at remembering numbers.
The point being, that remembering numbers and adding them up bogs you down and you get lost in the weeds, unable to see the forest let alone the amazing living planet we’re on.
NathanA says:
Friday, April 10, 2026 at 10:50 pm
Pizza Hut was 481 11 11, that jingle I remember!
__________
Dougie? Is that you? 🙂
The Hungarian polling is complicated by some mild gerrymandering, which is estimated to favour Fidesz by 3-5%. So a TPP here of 53-47 points to a solid win, it may not be enough for Tisza to win. I would be happier if the pro-Tisza polling was running a bit stronger.
The other thing to remember is that I’d be a bit reluctant to describe Tisza as “the good guys”. They are still quite right wing, because the Overton window in Hungary is pretty far to one side. They are just a hell of a lot better than the alternative.
Since we’re Friday night shitposting, here’s the sort of ad that could only air (or get made)on a country TV station:
https://youtu.be/pOAYABW4J8g
Aiii! What kind of a man would perform such deeds!
@DPR of CBR at 10:52pm
Yeah, agreed with that, in why I described Tisza as “the party in opposition to Orban” rather than the good guys.
Orban however is definitely a bad guy and Europe would be a better place without him.