Federal polls: YouGov, Roy Morgan, RedBridge Group (open thread)

Two polls apiece from YouGov and Roy Morgan, plus a big one from RedBridge Group.

The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor up a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 20%, One Nation down two to 25% and the Greens steady on 13%. Labor holds two-party leads of 55-45 over both the Coalition and One Nation. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 39% and down two on disapproval to 55%, while Angus Taylor improves not inconsiderably with a four-point increase in approval to 38% and a three-point drop in disapproval to 39%. Albanese leads 44-36 on preferred prime minister, out from 43-37. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1500.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up half a point to 30.5%, the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 24%, One Nation down two to 21.5%, and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 12%. In Labor-versus-Coalition terms, the poll finds Labor leading 56-44 based on previous election and 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (the latter measure has on average had Labor a point higher since the last election). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1411.

Roy Morgan also had an SMS poll recording an 83-17 split in favour of the government’s decision to cut fuel excise on petrol and diesel, although there was a 64-36 split against the government on satisfaction of its management of the shortage. Respondents were also invited to provide open-ended responses as to who they blamed and why, which you can read about in very great detail in an accompanying report. This poll was conducted March 26 to April 1 from a sample of 2514.

A poll I missed last Thursday was a RedBridge Group/Accent Research “super-poll” of 5563 respondents in the Financial Review. It was slightly dated in having been conducted from March 6 to 19, and did not feature a national headline result, its raison d’etre being breakdowns with significant samples. I will add the results later today from the four largest states and by age, gender, language, housing tenure and past vote to the BludgerTrack poll data archive, and stick here to the bits it’s unable to accommodate. Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group has published a cross-tabulation for generation by financial stress to illustrate the point that stressed older voters are voting One Nation while their younger equivalents are voting Greens, a point he elaborated on in an accompanying analysis piece.

My own favourite cross-tabulation is age-by-gender, which offers a too-rare look at one of the most striking electoral phenomena of our time, namely the pronounced gender gap that has developed among young voters. Among “Gen-Z” men, Labor is on 39%, the Coalition 12%, One Nation 19% and the Greens 24%; among women, Labor is on 26%, the Coalition 14%, One Nation 11% and the Greens 38%. The pattern is reflected in lesser degree among “millennials”, the result for men being Labor 36%, Coalition 16%, One Nation 26% and Greens 13%, and for women Labor 28%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 27% and Greens 15%. For “Gen-X” men, Labor is on 32%, the Coalition 18%, One Nation 35% and the Greens 6%; for women, Labor 29%, the Coalition 21%, One Nation 31% and Greens 9%. Among “baby boomer” men, Labor is on 27%, the Coalition 30%, One Nation 31% and the Greens 4%; among women, Labor 33%, the Coalition 24%, One Nation 32% and the Greens 3%.

The poll also asked four questions of the 491 respondents who said they would vote One Nation. Seventy per cent agreed their choice was a “tactic to make the major parties listen to ordinary Australians”, with only 18% disagreeing. However, 65% felt it “important to elect qualified leaders, even if we don’t always agree with them”, with 14% disagreeing. Fifty-four per cent felt “almost anything is better than the way things are going now, I just want to vote for change”, with 24% disagreeing.

The Australia Institute has an unrelated YouGov poll (hat-tip to Nadia in comments), conducted March 12 to 19 from a sample of 1502, as part of its campaign for a gas exports tax but encompassing voting intention. The result includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know” component, with the rest being Labor 26%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 24% and Greens 12%. The full report features breakdowns by state, age and gender. It also finds 60% agreeing that Australia exports too much gas, with only 10% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,327 thoughts on “Federal polls: YouGov, Roy Morgan, RedBridge Group (open thread)”

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  1. BRS, the one who was sensationally found by a court to have committed war crimes

    The DPP should spare us the sanctimonious BS

  2. Senate Republicans@SenateGOP 5h
    Iran would be wise to take President Trump at his word.
    They can choose the easy way or the hard way.
    —————————————–
    Well they are the experts at taking Trump the easy way. Just bend over the knee.

  3. Shellbell says:
    Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 8:40 am
    The Commonwealth DPP may have to issue a serious warning given all sides are going full throttle on BRS.

    They may need to move any trial to Darwin, Hobart, Norfolk Island or….. Canberra.

    __________

    A novel use for the Canberra bubble? 🙂

  4. Rex Douglas, Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 8:43 am:

    I find it pretty disturbing that Gina Rinehart and Pauline Hanson would question efforts to have an alleged war criminal face a trial.

    In effect it is giving the greenlight to war crimes, which is extreme and outrageous.

    Both should be condemned for such views.

    100% with you on this one, Rex. Along with the hideous greenlight for war crimes which you mention, it smacks of a Trumpian push to destroy the rule of law and to replace it with the state reward of supporters and punishment of opponents.

  5. Thank God for TACO Tuesday!

    Trump agrees to suspend bombing of Iran for two weeks:

    Donald Trump has announced that he will suspend his threatened bombing of Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges for two weeks.

    In a post on Truth Social he says that it is conditional on Iran reopening the strait of Hormuz calling it a double sided ceasefire. He goes on to say that he has received a workable ceasefire proposal from Iran.

    “The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/apr/07/iran-war-live-updates-trump-hormuz-threats-deadline-strikes-middle-east-conflict

    Re-set your doomsday clocks, everyone.

    Notice, though, that again Trump rationalises his backdown with a false claim of ‘military victory’. Which, of course, is mutually exclusive with any need to ‘end Iranian civilisation’ that he had been threatening right up until a quarter of an hour ago.

  6. Trump delays Iran deadline by 2 weeks.
    ———————————
    So TV. So WWE.
    He is loving the attention. And the power. The power to make a threat for Armageddon and the power to put it off. Everyone focussed on him.
    DoG help us all.

  7. Confessionssays:
    Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 7:12 am
    Senate Republicans@SenateGOP
    ·
    5h
    Iran would be wise to take President Trump at his word.

    They can choose the easy way or the hard way.

    That tweet didn’t age well.

  8. Lawyers

    “The evidence comes from laboratory experiments, mock jury simulations, and some real-world observational studies.”

    I’m with the Mavis AI answer here. Everything about psychology tells us it is impossible to tell humans to ignore pre-trial publicity. The anchoring effect is very strong. The only fair trial he gets is from jurors who haven’t followed his case. There should be plenty of them. Including me.

    And isn’t it nice to wake up to Trump threatening genocide against the Iranian people.

  9. Team Katichsays:
    Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 8:49 am
    Trump delays Iran deadline by 2 weeks.
    ———————————
    So TV. So WWE.
    He is loving the attention. And the power. The power to make a threat for Armageddon and the power to put it off. Everyone focussed on him.
    DoG help us all.

    And at the same time some insiders in Trump regime is making a lot of money on Wall Street.

  10. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 7:07 am
    Max Chandler-Mather has been resurrected… and the Greens certainly could benefit from some fresh policies.

    Greens firebrand Max Chandler-Mather is promising to recharge left-wing politics in Australia, taking the reins of the party’s think tank with the mission of building a populist movement that can replace Labor and rival a surging One Nation.
    ………
    He will relaunch the Greens Institute as its new executive director on Wednesday – the policy think tank that is the minor party’s answer to the Labor Party’s Chifley Research Centre or the Liberal-aligned Menzies Research Centre, which help inform party policy ideas.

    It will have two priorities. The first is to “dismantle key pillars of neoliberalism”, which he describes as the privatisation of key services and industries that have turned aged care and childcare over to profit-driven providers.

    The second is to lay out a “transformative vision of 21st century progressive economic populism” which is likely to focus on centralised public services, more public housing and a shorter working week.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/max-chandler-mather-is-back-to-lead-a-greens-think-tank-can-he-fire-up-a-left-wing-movement-20260407-p5zlw8.html

    Two very good priorities.

    Traditional socially-minded Labor voters would be attracted to both.

  11. Two weeks! Bloody hell; We’re in store for some other Epstein Distraction.

    My heart goes out to Cuba.

    As an alternative, riffing on the distraction of Artemis II, perhaps Spacex could bring us MAFS In Space – Season 1.

  12. newy boysays:
    Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 8:49 am
    Thank God for TACO Tuesday!

    Trump agrees to suspend bombing of Iran for two weeks:

    Donald Trump has announced that he will suspend his threatened bombing of Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges for two weeks.

    In a post on Truth Social he says that it is conditional on Iran reopening the strait of Hormuz calling it a double sided ceasefire. He goes on to say that he has received a workable ceasefire proposal from Iran.

    “The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/apr/07/iran-war-live-updates-trump-hormuz-threats-deadline-strikes-middle-east-conflict

    Re-set your doomsday clocks, everyone.

    Notice, though, that again Trump rationalises his backdown with a false claim of ‘military victory’. Which, of course, is mutually exclusive with any need to ‘end Iranian civilisation’ that he had been threatening right up until a quarter of an hour ago.

    HH DP
    Iran cuts all diplomatic channels with US ahead of Trump’s Strait of Hormuz deadline: https://www.firstpost.com/world/iran-cuts-all-diplomatic-channels-with-us-ahead-of-trumps-strait-of-hormuz-deadline-13997645.html

    Whom to believe newyboy. What if Iran doesn’t ‘open’ SOH?

  13. In effect it is giving the greenlight to war crimes, which is extreme and outrageous.

    Is it really?

    Haven’t we given genoicde a green light for years now?

    After giving genocide and ethnic cleansing and green light, wouldn’t it be a little absurd to get worked up about a couple of civilian murders?

    I do not support civilian murder so perhaps if we started opposing genocide as well.

  14. It looks like Trump has agreed to Iran’s 10 point terms during this ceasefire. That includes the Straits of Hormuz “toll booth” of $2 million per ship.

  15. World held hostage by reliance on fossil fuels, Christiana Figueres warns – and climate health impacts are ‘mother of all injustices’

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/ng-interactive/2026/apr/08/world-held-hostage-reliance-fossil-fuels-health-christiana-figueres

    “Christiana Figueres, an international climate negotiator who helped deliver the Paris agreement signed in 2016, made the comments as she was announced on Wednesday as co-chair of a Lancet Commission examining how sea-level rise is reshaping health, wellbeing and inequality.

    Lancet Commissions are international collaborations that analyse major global health issues and influence policy. This commission will examine legal frameworks to hold countries accountable for the health harms of sea-level rise. It will report by September 2027.

    While the timing of the announcement – amid the US-Israel war on Iran – is coincidental, Figueres said the fuel crisis was “dramatic proof” of the global dependence on fossil fuels that is driving geopolitical instability and the health impacts the commission will examine.
    :::
    A landmark advisory opinion published in 2025 by the international court of justice (ICJ) found that countries have a legal obligation prevent harm to the climate, and that failing to do so could result in them paying compensation and making other forms of restitution.

    Though non-binding, Figueres said the finding would boost the number of climate litigation cases and lead to groundbreaking claims.

    “Just the fact that the ICJ came out with an unequivocal opinion is already a crucial first step in terms of legal consequences,” she said.”

  16. Oh no. Moir is sick and in hospital.
    I hadn’t realised that his daily emails had stopped 🙁
    And TACO eh!
    I wonder how long til Wiles pulls the plug.
    The look on her face at times. She knows he’s batshit crazy but I guess P25 and the lure of power is too great.

  17. With respect to Ben Roberts Smith.

    Without going into too much detail.
    Nick McKenzie of The Age is probably one of the last bona fide investigative journalists. Who in doing so, on many occasions put himself and his family in danger.

  18. “He is loving the attention. And the power. The power to make a threat for Armageddon and the power to put it off. Everyone focussed on him.
    DoG help us all. ”

    TACO yes … but better than the alternative. 🙁

    Its definitely in US interests to have a ceasefire, and Iranian interests.

    I am dubious that the Israelis wont keep up strikes on Iran though?? If everyone has time to take a breath in the Gulf, the “hot war” in the region is Lebanon, and that comes under more scrutiny.

    And, Trump needs to be able to point to WINNING!!!! ahead of US elections this year.

  19. Has climate policy-making gone completely off the rails?

    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/04/has-climate-policymaking-gone-completely-off-the-rails/

    “Planning to “adapt” to 3°C of warming risks normalising catastrophic outcomes – and avoiding the urgent task of deep, immediate decarbonisation.

    Has climate policy-making gone right off the rails? That question pops into my head with increasing frequency these days, most recently when I glanced at a _Guardian_ news headline: ‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3°C of global heating.
    :::
    This drift toward ever-more elaborate and fanciful notions of adaptation occurs because political leaders have lacked the courage to confront what the science actually demands: an emergency-scale mobilisation for deep, immediate decarbonisation and measures to cool the planet. Adaptation has become a surrogate for leadership and a way to appear pragmatic while avoiding the hard tasks.

    This is the ‘adaptation trap’, because in reality the impacts are so significant that the only practical adaptation strategy is to avoid such levels of warming at all cost. Indeed, the European report recognises that there are immutable “hard limits” and “only reducing the rate and magnitude of warming can generally prevent these being reached and breached”. But it does not discuss what those limits might be.”

  20. The ceasefire also includes Lebanon. This is the point most likely to fail. Neither Israel or Hezbollah have much self-control.

    If America has to agree to the 10 point plan of Iran that includes payment for the damages caused in Iran and removal forces from the gulf area. That would be a massive defeat for America.

  21. ‘Gina Rinehart has slammed prosecutors’ pursuit of Ben Roberts-Smith and other SAS veterans, after the Victoria Cross recipient was arrested and charged with multiple war crimes.

    Australian Federal Police are accusing Roberts-Smith – the former soldier and recipient of the Australian military’s highest honour, the Victoria Cross – of five counts of war crime – murder.

    Following his arrest, this masthead asked Rinehart whether she still supported Roberts-Smith. Her answer was an emphatic yes.

    “I don’t understand how it can be justified to spend more than $300 million to try for years to bring SAS veterans, who have served our country, towards criminal proceedings, and most recently the arrest of Ben,” Rinehart said in a statement.’

    – SMH

    Waiting for Nelson to make it a troika. One thing’s for sure, Roberts-Smith will have the funds to hire the best silks.

  22. https://gulfbusiness.com/en/2026/iran/iran-10-point-plan-war-us-israel-trump-hormuz/

    “Iran’s 10-point peace plan

    Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again
    Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire
    End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon
    Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran
    End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies
    Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz
    Iran would impose a $2m fee per ship transiting Hormuz
    Iran would split these fees with Oman
    Iran would establish rules for safe passage through Hormuz
    Iran would use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations”

    Actually, looks mainly do-able to me??

    I would say the sticky ones in that list would be:

    “End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon”

    “End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies”

    The Israeli’s may pull their heads in if the Arab nations threaten Trumps “Abraham Accords” ??

  23. I hope that Trump (or whoever is actually in control) has told Israel to pull its head in.
    ——————————————————–
    Heck. Of course. You think Netanyahu would listen tho? It would have to be a strong threat to Netanyahu and I dont see Trump doing that (for reasons conspiratorial and otherwise).

  24. Iran has folded as it was always going to.

    TACO ?

    Here…..

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_MRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Frenewable-target-missing-from-alp-draft-national-platform%2Fnews-story%2Fc88b0ce87b343972825172d28ee6ddc4&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=ULTRALOW-Segment-2-SCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append

    37% increase in electricity bills, fact is renewables are too expensive to get to 82% in the time frame.China Albos besties are keeping coal use at high levels.Not eradicating it to zero or anywhere near it.

  25. Although it’s doubtful it will happen, increased chatter about it can only be a good thing:

    ‘An eclectic, bipartisan group suddenly calls for removing Trump using the 25th Amendment

    The 25th Amendment talk is back.

    Lawmakers have repeatedly floated the method for removing a president, as laid out in the Constitution, in recent years. And Donald Trump’s Cabinet apparently discussed the option more earnestly than many initially realized after the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack.

    To successfully remove Trump, a majority of his Cabinet and his vice president would have to be supportive. And there are no indications any Cabinet officials are considering it right now, or that Vice President JD Vance would be on board. But Trump’s comment Tuesday morning that a “whole civilization will die tonight” unless Iran makes a deal spurred increasing calls — among a somewhat odd amalgamation of voices — to invoke the amendment.

    Less than two hours before his 8 p.m. deadline for Iran, Trump announced he’d agreed to a two-week ceasefire, conditional on Tehran opening the Strait of Hormuz.

    Democratic lawmakers and right-wing voices had spent the previous 24 hours expressing concerns about just how far the president was willing to take things in the Iran war. His threats to strike power plants and other civilian infrastructure have been decried as war crimes, and some even said they feared the administration’s threats alluded to the potential use of nuclear weapons (which the White House has denied considering).

    It’s mostly Democrats who have called to invoke the amendment — dozens of them, in fact. That includes potential presidential hopefuls like Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker. (Of course, they have little to no power at the moment to initiate removal proceedings.)

    But notably, some conservatives and other recent Trump allies have taken up the call, as well.’

    https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/07/politics/25th-amendment-trump-iran-war

  26. BKsays:
    Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 9:35 am
    The ASX futures have enjoyed a 1.4% TACO bump this morning.

    Some Traders and brokers are making a lot of money on Trump TACOs.

  27. Mavis at 8.39am.

    “The gulf between actual AI performance and AI hype is deep and cavernous”

    I would say it’s mostly fair criticism. AI “learns” by trawling stuff on the Internet.

    Much of the stuff on the Internet was put there by loons and other AI so has a high bullshit component.

    You don’t have to be involved. I have had a couple of issues with Telstra recently. On both occasions as soon as I encountered one of their stupid robots I diverted to their complaints process where you deal with a human. If customers refuse to engage AI, the parasites will stop trying to force it onto us.

  28. US oil futures prices have crashed on the news of the two-week ceasefire and Iran and the possibility of oil again moving through the Strait of Hormuz with Iran approval.

    At 9:30am AEST, West Texas Intermediate crude futures we down around 20% to under $US92/barrel. It had been trading above $US112/barrel earlier this morning.

    (ABC Business Live)

    Let’s hope there’s no TACO on the TACO.

    The Iranians seem to be in a position to get most of what they want. Although, I don’t envy the person who has to consummate the agreement with Trump.

  29. “Like a herd of wildebeest.”

    Which i find very fundamentally disturbing. 🙁 The markets, with Trump volatility in play, are all now oriented to scoffing profits on the short term price jumps. Bad for the world, but Trumps backers with some inside info access will be making a lot out of this.

  30. So as expected Chump has TACO’ed again.

    I note he says Hormuz must be reopened. I doubt that has happened, or if it has, the tolls still apply.

    The big question is, will Israel also stop bombing Iran and Lebanon?

  31. Wholesale Fuel price update – Diesel is now $3.20 a litre (so all the excise cut has been swallowed by price rises) but Petrol remains a more reasonable $2.06 a litre.

  32. We’ll see what happens. Israel seems to have been off doing its own thing. I don’t think that will stop. From what I heard on Newsradio while driving earlier, Trump and the Iranians seem to have very different ideas on what has been agreed.

    We’ll see.

    As a well known PM said about another conflict, there are no good guys here, just baddies. That plus innocent victims, “collaterally damaged” and otherwise.

  33. I was in the Regular Army from 1982 to 1993. I was then in the active and inactive reserves until I was discharged 7 years ago.
    Rules of Engagement are known to all soldiers, as is the law. If Roberts-Smith is guilty of killing civilians then, just like anyone else who commits murder, he should face justice.
    The fact that he was awarded the Victoria Cross does NOT mean he doesn’t get to face justice. He should certainly keep his VC, the bravery he displayed during the specific event when he won the award is undisputed.
    Having said that if he is found guilty of murder then he can proudly wear it on his prison uniform.

  34. SLsays:
    Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 9:47 am
    US oil futures prices have crashed on the news of the two-week ceasefire and Iran and the possibility of oil again moving through the Strait of Hormuz with Iran approval.

    At 9:30am AEST, West Texas Intermediate crude futures we down around 20% to under $US92/barrel. It had been trading above $US112/barrel earlier this morning.

    That is some crash SL. However, the old price shouldn’t be that high in the first place (but that is another story)

    Oil traders and brokers are making a lot of money.

  35. PP
    Get back to you bunker and stay there sucking on dozen eggs. Also, your socks are with you. So there is no need to come out at all.

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