The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor up a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 20%, One Nation down two to 25% and the Greens steady on 13%. Labor holds two-party leads of 55-45 over both the Coalition and One Nation. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 39% and down two on disapproval to 55%, while Angus Taylor improves not inconsiderably with a four-point increase in approval to 38% and a three-point drop in disapproval to 39%. Albanese leads 44-36 on preferred prime minister, out from 43-37. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1500.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up half a point to 30.5%, the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 24%, One Nation down two to 21.5%, and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 12%. In Labor-versus-Coalition terms, the poll finds Labor leading 56-44 based on previous election and 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (the latter measure has on average had Labor a point higher since the last election). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1411.
Roy Morgan also had an SMS poll recording an 83-17 split in favour of the government’s decision to cut fuel excise on petrol and diesel, although there was a 64-36 split against the government on satisfaction of its management of the shortage. Respondents were also invited to provide open-ended responses as to who they blamed and why, which you can read about in very great detail in an accompanying report. This poll was conducted March 26 to April 1 from a sample of 2514.
A poll I missed last Thursday was a RedBridge Group/Accent Research “super-poll” of 5563 respondents in the Financial Review. It was slightly dated in having been conducted from March 6 to 19, and did not feature a national headline result, its raison d’etre being breakdowns with significant samples. I will add the results later today from the four largest states and by age, gender, language, housing tenure and past vote to the BludgerTrack poll data archive, and stick here to the bits it’s unable to accommodate. Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group has published a cross-tabulation for generation by financial stress to illustrate the point that stressed older voters are voting One Nation while their younger equivalents are voting Greens, a point he elaborated on in an accompanying analysis piece.
My own favourite cross-tabulation is age-by-gender, which offers a too-rare look at one of the most striking electoral phenomena of our time, namely the pronounced gender gap that has developed among young voters. Among “Gen-Z” men, Labor is on 39%, the Coalition 12%, One Nation 19% and the Greens 24%; among women, Labor is on 26%, the Coalition 14%, One Nation 11% and the Greens 38%. The pattern is reflected in lesser degree among “millennials”, the result for men being Labor 36%, Coalition 16%, One Nation 26% and Greens 13%, and for women Labor 28%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 27% and Greens 15%. For “Gen-X” men, Labor is on 32%, the Coalition 18%, One Nation 35% and the Greens 6%; for women, Labor 29%, the Coalition 21%, One Nation 31% and Greens 9%. Among “baby boomer” men, Labor is on 27%, the Coalition 30%, One Nation 31% and the Greens 4%; among women, Labor 33%, the Coalition 24%, One Nation 32% and the Greens 3%.
The poll also asked four questions of the 491 respondents who said they would vote One Nation. Seventy per cent agreed their choice was a “tactic to make the major parties listen to ordinary Australians”, with only 18% disagreeing. However, 65% felt it “important to elect qualified leaders, even if we don’t always agree with them”, with 14% disagreeing. Fifty-four per cent felt “almost anything is better than the way things are going now, I just want to vote for change”, with 24% disagreeing.
The Australia Institute has an unrelated YouGov poll (hat-tip to Nadia in comments), conducted March 12 to 19 from a sample of 1502, as part of its campaign for a gas exports tax but encompassing voting intention. The result includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know” component, with the rest being Labor 26%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 24% and Greens 12%. The full report features breakdowns by state, age and gender. It also finds 60% agreeing that Australia exports too much gas, with only 10% disagreeing.
There’s an old jingle from a 1980s Tasmanian TV ad.
Ask anyone from there and they can sing it and repeat the phone number 40 years later; Tasmanian carpet cleaning a top job every time, Tasmanian carpet cleaning 236689.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oaN-SEXrSMM
Player Onesays:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 9:22 pm
He spent all March saying the Government must ration fuel. If they had he would have been the first to blame them for a non-necessary measure now I expect. P1 is the most dishonest of critics.
====================================
Projection, thy embodiment is “Entropy”.
————————————–
Are you claiming you didn’t go on all through March demanding the Government start rationing fuel?
or
Are you claiming if the Government did ration fuel and it turned out uncalled for, you wouldn’t be the first to bag them on here for it?
nadia says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 7:45 pm
TPOF – good to see you back here.
I enjoy reading your material here, as I’m sure most here do.
Thanks you for coming back.
OK, footy time.
__________________________________________
Thanks for your kind words Nadia.
However, as I posted earlier, I have no intention of posting further here except to the extent that other posters feeling it necessary to ignite a flame war against me personally. I find it much calmer that way, as I continue to lurk (and exercise an inordinate amount of scrolling) in order to get a handful of useful links, information and insights.
TPOFsays:
However, as I posted earlier, I have no intention of posting further here except to the extent that other posters feeling it necessary to ignite a flame war against me personally.
____________________________________
We get it. You’re here for the shit fights and abuse only. Message received. You are like a coiled spring, always lurking and ready to pop out with your unique brand of invective and general nastiness. Salut.
William Bowe says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 8:53 pm
TPOF – good to see you back here.
I enjoy reading your material here, as I’m sure most here do.
I really do hesitate to bag Nadia, because it really is great to have her back. But if ever you’re the subject of a comment like this from her, it’s an almost certain sign that there’s something seriously wrong with you.
_________________________________________________
William. I’m curious as to what this means. It reads as if you are having a go at Nadia but that doesn’t make sense. Given I was the subject of her kind comment, and taking into account, my subsequent response (to which this query will, I hope, be the only exception) I wouldn’t mind a bit further elucidation.
TPOF, William was shit posting about Nadia’s shit posting. Nath says it clearly.
TPOF
I found that thinking too much about it lead to troubling conclusions, so I stopped thinking about it.
nath says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 9:43 pm
TPOFsays:
We get it. You’re here for the shit fights and abuse only. Message received. You are like a coiled spring, always lurking and ready to pop out with your unique brand of invective and general nastiness. Salut.
_____________________________________________________
Sorry Nath. You are yesterday’s gadfly. A mere leftover exoskeleton of your former self.
Mostly Interested says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 9:46 pm
TPOF, William was shit posting about Nadia’s shit posting. Nath says it clearly.
___________________________________________________
Clearly I’m making all sorts of temporary exceptions tonight. But I’d rather William explain than someone else with yet someone else’s interpretation.
Yeah William, explain yourself to TPOF or else.
TPOF, you are the latest in a long line of appalling commenters who have had effusions of soft-headed praise showered upon them by the otherwise exemplary Nadia. Very often this happens just after I’ve banned them. So if you sensed you were being disrespected, I’m glad to have been able to clarify the matter.
For a high profile by-election like the Farrer by-election the fact that there is only 1 poll for it is quite shocking.
Mostly Interestedsays:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 9:26 pm
There’s an old jingle from a 1980s Tasmanian TV ad.
______________________
That’s an annoying ad but nothing like the DOORS, DOORS, GET YOUR DOORS ad which ran in the 90s and which captured the imagination of Stephen K Amos.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/XjyXrh-VBCU
Typical Republican mess.
Swing state Republicans created a fake election problem — then bungled the solution.
https://www.alternet.org/fulton-county-elections-2676691424/?u=fd42ad96af079e77584618d14d8fb6f31d3d23c70a7a059dd5da36af2e3150b6&utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Apr.9.2026_11.43am
Nath:
Its been like twenty years since Amos did that bit, and it never fails to crack me up.
yeah, his wild dog fighting days are over.
Russia’s actions in international relations are not uniquely evil. In fact, there are plenty of other nations that are worse, including nations that Russia’s critics align themselves with or make excuses for. So spare us the overweening moral pique about Russia. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is best understood through a realist international relations lens. Morality doesn’t explain much in international relations.
Hard Being Green says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 8:27 pm
Bizzcan it’s not Greens policy yet, could change but even if it doesn’t I still think it’s worth exploring
Note I’m not talking nationalising the health system or the NDIS, just the provision of the services rather than having contractors doing it e.g. do the job of those who organise the carers etc and make the carers public servants
_________________________________________
I would hope to see some actual Greens policy in this space at some point – despite being an establishment party with staffers and unlimited access to the Parliamentary Budget Office, they have shown a real timidness when it comes to reform.
As for cost breakdown, as far as I’m aware the “contractors” (as some call them) are the local coordinators – this is only 2.5% of the overall spend ($1.7 billion out of $65 billion annualized). At some point we need to see some policy courage to pick which other parts see savings (either lower specialist wages, or fewer participants)
https://www.ndis.gov.au/publications/quarterly-reports
Even if that is entirely in-sourced with no additional public servants, well that component “only” increased by $150 million over the past year, compared to an overall increase of about $8 billion. The local coordinators are such a small part of the overall cost increase story its barely worth mentioning
omfg nicholas
“meat’s back on the menu boys”
Ashasays:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 10:03 pm
Nath:
Its been like twenty years since Amos did that bit, and it never fails to crack me up.
______________________
How good is it?
His bit about his interaction in a Queensland fruit and veg shop is hilarious. He could do an Australian accent like few others.
Back when the Melbourne Comedy Festival was actually funny.
William Bowe says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 9:53 pm
TPOF, you are the latest in a long line of appalling commenters who have had effusions of soft-headed praise showered upon them by the otherwise exemplary Nadia. Very often this happens just after I’ve banned them. So if you sensed you were being disrespected, I’m glad to have been able to clarify the matter.
__________________________________________________
Thank you for the clarification William. In the circumstances you are welcome to the gratuitous vile unprovoked personal attacks on me by the likes of Yabba, Bushfire Bill and the pathetic “once was a warrior” Nath. To your great personal delight, no doubt, I will absolutely cease to post here. The shitheads you tolerate can do their worst.
“yeah, his wild dog fighting days are over.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEuw2mgLRuQ
yawn
I recall I was on a date at an over night movie marathon in the 90s, movie 2, Once were Warriors, movie 3: Bad Boy Bubby.
Dont do that, it doesnt leave a good impression.
Omar Comin’ says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 10:04 pm
Sorry Nath. You are yesterday’s gadfly. A mere leftover exoskeleton of your former self.
yeah, his wild dog fighting days are over.
中华人民共和国
There is a cock fight scheduled In Kanchanaburi over the weekend in conjunction with Thai New Year.
Personally I won’t go and object to animals fighting animals for human enjoyment. But it’s legalised here and integrated into Thai culture.
Now that Nath’s Gadfly and wild dog fighting days have passed (like sands through the hourglass), perhaps being a cock could arise?
Mostly Interestedsays:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 10:12 pm
I recall I was on a date at an over night movie marathon in the 90s, movie 2, Once were Warriors, movie 3: Bad Boy Bubby.
________
Two great movies. I don’t think it’s just me getting old, I can’t be mistaken in thinking that people can’t make great movies anymore.
nath @ #813 Thursday, April 9th, 2026 – 9:58 pm
Yes but watching the Tasmanian Carpet Cleaning advert didnt make people post highly scripted pieces about brown people not being able to tell the time.
Bludgeoned Westie, last page:
All those tiny western suburbs councils need to get merged – have a look at the shape of Nedlands on a map, it’s a mockery of the word “local”. It’s also broke (~20k residents, somehow $27m in debt) and just got dissolved for complete inability to run itself, so now surrounding councils like Claremont have a non-nimby reason to not want a merger – it’d cost them a lot of money. There’s a new council as of last week – let’s see how that goes.
Back when Colin Barnett was premier, it was pressure from those councils that made him lose interest in mergers (as well as the Nats with their dozens of one-town wheatbelt councils). The mayors of Cottesloe and Nedlands ran against him and Bill Marmion in a state election, and got about 10%. Funny thing is, with one or two big merged councils, it’d be much easier for local mayors or councillors to actually win Lib seats like they do on the north shore of Sydney – they’d have a higher profile. In the end, the only merger that happened was Geraldton with the surrounding shire of Greenough (makes plenty of sense), and then that with Mullewa 100 km east (makes… less sense).
I’d like to see Perth, Vincent and the SE end of Stirling merged. It’s weird that you can drive up Beaufort St from Northbridge to Inglewood and pass through four different council areas in about 10 min, but the Astor in Mt Lawley is in the same one as Scarborough beach (again, how is this “local”?). Vincent was part of Perth before Richard Court split them in the 90s – wind back the clock.
Elsewhere in Perth, some councils actually need to shrink. Wanneroo had Joondalup split off it in the 90s, and now could use another split – all those new-ish suburbs from Clarkson up to Yanchep could easily make up a new one. Swan is also massive, and weirdly split between Midland, Ellenbrook, and a few suburbs like Lockridge and Beechboro that don’t fit with either (shift them to Bassendean council if you think that one’s too small). As for whatever’s going on with the boundary between Swan and Mundaring zig-zagging along random streets in Bellevue and Midvale (seriously, look at a map of it), how is this a hard fix? A lot of the outer suburban councils have had the same boundaries ever since they were called “road boards” back in the 60s, and don’t make much sense with modern suburban growth.
TPOF sorry to hear this but entirely understandable. Hope you too come back. FWIW, the moderator is a very strange character imo.
Bird of paradox, 20k residents? Those councils are amateurs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_government_areas_of_Tasmania
Trump said
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.”
A POTUS said that. I am still blown away by that statement.
Mostly Interested says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 10:21 pm
Bird of paradox, 20k residents? Those councils are amateurs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_government_areas_of_Tasmania
________________________________________
I bet they can’t beat the council meeting catering for the:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shire_of_Peppermint_Grove
Bird of paradox says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 10:18 pm
All those tiny western suburbs councils need to get merged – have a look at the shape of Nedlands on a map, it’s a mockery of the word “local”
___________________________________________
Yeah but you miss the bigger point – the City of Nedlands is designed to be a containment zone for the country’s most problematic residents (bonus points if people get the layers of that reference).
TPOF
I don’t come here often enough to have a clear idea as to what has led to this. But for what it’s worth I have always seen you as a fair minded and decent contributor to the blog. Obviously there are others who would disagree.
Another poll from Hungary with IDEA from 29 March to 4 April (compared with their last from 28 February to 6 March). Also they’re Independent/Opposition aligned.
Fidesz: 37% (=)
Tisza: 50% (+1)
Our Homeland: 5% (-1)
Others: 8% (=)
Starting to look like if Orban wins from here then Hungarian polling is actually broken.
Those Tassie ones actually seem sensible – apart from the two islands, there’s nothing below 2500 people (and that’s in a much smaller state). WA on the other hand has a loooong list of councils below that, right down to the 108 people of the Shire of Murchison where there isn’t even a town. In NSW and SA, areas like that don’t get to have local government at all.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_government_areas_of_Western_Australia#Non-metropolitan_LGAs
Peppermint Grove is straight up stupid. At no point in history since James Stirling plonked a Union Jack in the ground in 1829 has that suburb ever been enough of its own urban centre, distinct from Mosman Park or Cottesloe (also one-suburb councils), that it warrants its own council. Even in the days of horse and cart (which is when a lot of those wheatbelt councils were established), nope – you can walk across it in half an hour. I don’t understand why it was ever separate.
Looks like I have collected a couple.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 5:28 pm
“That would be ‘agora’… although sometimes I do think bludgers inhabit different universes.”
Response: Yes we do.
https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/english/agora
WeWantPaul says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 5:39 pm
“p.s. not providing the source of the quote is poor citation practice”
I will be sure to consult you on proper blog etiquette when I commence my blog PhD.
Response: I am full up at present, so cannot supervise. But always happy to advise 🙂
Now let’s wade through the rest of the posts.
Bizzcan says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 10:06 pm
Hard Being Green says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 8:27 pm
Bizzcan it’s not Greens policy yet, could change but even if it doesn’t I still think it’s worth exploring
Note I’m not talking nationalising the health system or the NDIS, just the provision of the services rather than having contractors doing it e.g. do the job of those who organise the carers etc and make the carers public servants
_________________________________________
I would hope to see some actual Greens policy in this space at some point – despite being an establishment party with staffers and unlimited access to the Parliamentary Budget Office, they have shown a real timidness when it comes to reform.
As for cost breakdown, as far as I’m aware the “contractors” (as some call them) are the local coordinators – this is only 2.5% of the overall spend ($1.7 billion out of $65 billion annualized). At some point we need to see some policy courage to pick which other parts see savings (either lower specialist wages, or fewer participants)
https://www.ndis.gov.au/publications/quarterly-reports
Even if that is entirely in-sourced with no additional public servants, well that component “only” increased by $150 million over the past year, compared to an overall increase of about $8 billion. The local coordinators are such a small part of the overall cost increase story its barely worth mentioning
___________
This is an important post. As expressed previously, we have a runaway train. The latest, and largest, of several.
DPR of CBR says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 6:19 pm
meher babasays:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 5:58 pm
But the Romans built their own agoras in various places, including one in Athens itself (which is called, you’ll be astonished to learn, the Roman Agora). Perhaps the plural of Roman Agora would be Roman Agorae.
– – – – – – –
Now that is a bit of a linguistic conundrum … the Romans only built “agoras” in the Greek-speaking part of their empire. Elsewhere, the same structures are called forums (or fora if you prefer). So they are clearly just using the pre-existing greek word and sticking their own language’s syntax with it. Latin speakers would use “agorae”, in the same way as we would say “agoras”.
I didn’t interpret Griff as shifting into Latin, but perhaps I was wrong – “errare humanum est” and all that. While the odd Latin tag gets thrown out here, I don’t think anyone going full Latin in this forum would be an aid to comprehension. I’m willing to give it a crack if you are, though.
____________
My advice? Never go full Latin 🙂
Mostly Interested at 8.34 pm
“I think a few here were saying a few weeks back that Albo should go early because of the LNP disarray and the ON vote splitting.”
The LNP disarray is currently chronic. It will get worse after the Farrer by-election.
Hastie is expected to make his over-announced tilt at becoming LOTO by November. He might even, by coincidence, do it at a time to compound Lib problems in Victoria.
According to one poll, about 70% of those saying they would vote for the Hanson cult are doing so just to convey grumpiness. However, it’s the Nats’ seats most at risk.
No sane Labor leader would go for a DD in this term, in contrast to the situation in 2010.
Just in case anyone is interested, according to the OED, the entomology of the word “agora” is a borrowing from Latin, which in turn is derived from the Greek.
Meher Baba has it correct.
The plural of agora is listed as “agorae, agoras, unchanged”. So all are acceptable at present. I looked it up prior to posting, as while I have had occasion to use the singular, this is a first for use of the plural form 🙂
I didn’t realise there was enough of a market for Tasmanian made carpets that there had to be a specialist cleaner for them.
Boerwar at 5.55 pm
“A significant number of those polled seem to have formed the conclusion that Labor was a competent government during a crisis and that the decisions being made by the Labor Government were working, all things considered.”
Just replace was with is, and were with are; yet for how long still depends on whether Trump has the sense to restrain Netanyahu’s war crimes. As Albo noted, this crisis has a long tail, like Smaug in The Hobbit (if not the inflation dragon according to D. Rowe).
Late Riser pointed to the key implication with his Brisbane petrol price graph showing the drop in petrol just before Easter, which even the marginal voters will have noted.
agora was like silk road XXV
come to think of it, agora was pretty good, though a lot of people said it was run by the DEA
Mavis at 4.39 pm
“Other than it being a Muslim nation, I couldn’t comprehend why Pakistan’s so interested in a ME ceasefire.”
Apart from the treaty with Saudi Arabia, and border with Iran, just try this from AI:
“As of April 2026, roughly 5 million Pakistani nationals reside in the Persian Gulf, forming one of the largest expatriate communities in the region, primarily working in construction and service sectors in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Recent conflict-related shipping disruptions and volatility in the Gulf have led to significant safety concerns, with thousands returning home and Pakistan arranging repatriation efforts.”
(search for Pakistani nationals in Persian gulf)
Mostly Interestedsays:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 10:12 pm
I recall I was on a date at an over night movie marathon in the 90s, movie 2, Once were Warriors, movie 3: Bad Boy Bubby.
_______________________
Bet you never look at cling wrap the same way after that
Upnorth @ 10:15p
I almost missed your post cobber. How’d that happen…
I had a couple of cocks pass through my hands recently. The chicks were given to me supposedly sexed but that’s how these things go. Thought about coq au vin but the kill cone is not for me, luckily someone took em.
Good to see you back on.
Socrates at 12.53 pm
“What the USA really should have done at the end of the Cold War was fix the United Nations and make it a genuinely representative body, with voting and influence proportional to actual world standing of nations, and a Security Council not nobbled by veto holders.
It failed to do so under Clinton and Dubya Bush, when it had the power to do it.”
Doc Evatt tried to restrict the veto at the San Francisco conference in 1945 and failed.
Gareth Evans tried even harder in 1993-94 to limit the veto by requiring that, in any situation of a humanitarian catastrophe, two veto states would be needed to block a resolution, not one. There was no interest from Clinton in supporting Evans at all.
If the US had been imaginative at that time it could probably have engineered a reform of the Security Council, but Clinton had bugger all interest in non-parochial matters. However, since about 1997 Security Council reform has been regularly discussed and chronically unachievable for various reasons, very poor US diplomacy being only one.
For background here’s a few chapters of a standard text by Thomas Weiss:
https://books.google.com.au/books/about/What_s_Wrong_with_the_United_Nations_and.html?id=jJYhD7gAFYUC&redir_esc=y
Spoils of war: Miners gift mammoth $8.1bn windfall to budget
Jim Chalmers has secured a company tax windfall from soaring commodity prices, with the funds to repair the budget and fund new spending programs.