The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor up a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 20%, One Nation down two to 25% and the Greens steady on 13%. Labor holds two-party leads of 55-45 over both the Coalition and One Nation. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 39% and down two on disapproval to 55%, while Angus Taylor improves not inconsiderably with a four-point increase in approval to 38% and a three-point drop in disapproval to 39%. Albanese leads 44-36 on preferred prime minister, out from 43-37. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1500.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up half a point to 30.5%, the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 24%, One Nation down two to 21.5%, and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 12%. In Labor-versus-Coalition terms, the poll finds Labor leading 56-44 based on previous election and 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (the latter measure has on average had Labor a point higher since the last election). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1411.
Roy Morgan also had an SMS poll recording an 83-17 split in favour of the government’s decision to cut fuel excise on petrol and diesel, although there was a 64-36 split against the government on satisfaction of its management of the shortage. Respondents were also invited to provide open-ended responses as to who they blamed and why, which you can read about in very great detail in an accompanying report. This poll was conducted March 26 to April 1 from a sample of 2514.
A poll I missed last Thursday was a RedBridge Group/Accent Research “super-poll” of 5563 respondents in the Financial Review. It was slightly dated in having been conducted from March 6 to 19, and did not feature a national headline result, its raison d’etre being breakdowns with significant samples. I will add the results later today from the four largest states and by age, gender, language, housing tenure and past vote to the BludgerTrack poll data archive, and stick here to the bits it’s unable to accommodate. Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group has published a cross-tabulation for generation by financial stress to illustrate the point that stressed older voters are voting One Nation while their younger equivalents are voting Greens, a point he elaborated on in an accompanying analysis piece.
My own favourite cross-tabulation is age-by-gender, which offers a too-rare look at one of the most striking electoral phenomena of our time, namely the pronounced gender gap that has developed among young voters. Among “Gen-Z” men, Labor is on 39%, the Coalition 12%, One Nation 19% and the Greens 24%; among women, Labor is on 26%, the Coalition 14%, One Nation 11% and the Greens 38%. The pattern is reflected in lesser degree among “millennials”, the result for men being Labor 36%, Coalition 16%, One Nation 26% and Greens 13%, and for women Labor 28%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 27% and Greens 15%. For “Gen-X” men, Labor is on 32%, the Coalition 18%, One Nation 35% and the Greens 6%; for women, Labor 29%, the Coalition 21%, One Nation 31% and Greens 9%. Among “baby boomer” men, Labor is on 27%, the Coalition 30%, One Nation 31% and the Greens 4%; among women, Labor 33%, the Coalition 24%, One Nation 32% and the Greens 3%.
The poll also asked four questions of the 491 respondents who said they would vote One Nation. Seventy per cent agreed their choice was a “tactic to make the major parties listen to ordinary Australians”, with only 18% disagreeing. However, 65% felt it “important to elect qualified leaders, even if we don’t always agree with them”, with 14% disagreeing. Fifty-four per cent felt “almost anything is better than the way things are going now, I just want to vote for change”, with 24% disagreeing.
The Australia Institute has an unrelated YouGov poll (hat-tip to Nadia in comments), conducted March 12 to 19 from a sample of 1502, as part of its campaign for a gas exports tax but encompassing voting intention. The result includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know” component, with the rest being Labor 26%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 24% and Greens 12%. The full report features breakdowns by state, age and gender. It also finds 60% agreeing that Australia exports too much gas, with only 10% disagreeing.
Greater Sydney has 33 local councils. Ten or twelve would be plenty.
There was a partially successful attempt to amalgamate council areas in the 2010s by the Coalition Government (there used to be 44), but it was resisted and ultimately abandoned. As a result we have a mix of large councils like Blacktown (population over 400,000) and tiny nimby councils a few km across and populations of a several tens of thousands.
Re population, Sydney is bigger if you add Central Coast, but ABS measures by Significant Urban Area (2025) – 1 Melbourne Vic 5,245,182 6.9% 2.8%
2 Sydney NSW 5,143,256 5.9% 2.0%
Hard Being Greensays:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 5:56 pm
Outside looking in something needs to change with the NDIS but I’d much prefer we talked about the net cost i.e. how many people have been able to go back to work etc?
Either way, bringing the management of the scheme in-house cuts out a layer of profit takers. It would be a big call though, and take time to rebuild
Just cutting dollars from the budget allocation isn’t the answer
________________________
That’s a fair take, it’s just that it’s not Greens policy. JSJ and Teal Monique Ryan have close relationships with the private sector providers who use the narrative of patient choice to stonewall change. If people are unhappy about the NDIS structure, these are the two who are fighting change.
The other thing is that is unconstitutional for the Federal government to “nationalise” the heath system (doctors especially), so they’d have to be hired at current commercial rates, likely invalidating and potential savings on margins (which I don’t think it’s the actual problem, the issue is gold plating of services for individuals).
The only people who I’m aware of doing an independent, non partisan take on the NDIS is the Grattan institute.
https://grattan.edu.au/report/saving-the-ndis/
P1, Albo’s to blame for high petrol prices, riiiiight….
No one I know on the Central Coast think they live in Sydney…
Kirsdarke says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 6:30 pm
@nadia
Yeah, I’m keeping an eye on Victorian polling numbers as well. I do think Labor is in trouble here, and the only reason they’re competitive for November is that their opposition is such an omnishamble.
Things should be more clear after the Nepean by-election on 2 May, whether a Liberal, Teal or One Nation candidate wins it.
===========
Kirs,
I don’t think the Victorian ALP gov’t is going to lose. It may be a minority gov’t with the Greens, but going by how the One Nation vote “poleaxed” the Lib vote in Adelaide, I think the VicLibs are going to struggle. Look at WB’s “results map” for Adelaide. A complete wipe out of the Libs.
Link: https://www.pollbludger.net/sa2026/Results/Map.htm?
What One Nation appears to be doing, is pushing the Libs out at the 3CP stage.
The Lib vote then get’s preferenced, and it look’s like it’s splitting about 66-34 in favour of the ONP.
The “left vote” consolidates around “left” aligned candidates. So it might begin with a bit of Cannabis, a bit of Animals, and a bit of Socialism (or Marxism), but the vote finds it’s way to the Greens and then Labor when we get to the bitter end.
The point I’m making is that the “left aligned” vote is more disciplined, whereas the “right aligned” vote sprays around like an unsterilised male cat.
I also don’t think the “one nation” figures in Victoria are quite right. I would take about 4% off the published primaries. I left the state about 16 years ago, but it is “not One Nation turf” from memory.
Anyway, as of Thurs 9-Apr, I will put myself down for a Labor minority win in Vic come November, with a couple of Greens to prop the Labor gov’t up. Reason for this – is the relatively high Green primary in Victoria.
I know you’re not impressed with the Preferred Premier figures or net/sat figures etc, (which is fair enough) but those figures are “chardonnay numbers’. It’s the 2PP which counts.
Hopefully we may have a Redbridge Victoria poll over the weekend, and possibly a Vic Newspoll soon’ish (Bit wishful, but I hope).
The Lib pre-selection debacle, and the follow up “slag fest” involving Jess Wilson, Mr Gourisetty, Philip Davis, Jeff Kennett, Tom Elliott (3AW radio) & Peta Credlin – should confirm in most Victorian’s minds that this “political outfit” has not got their shXt together.
It’s a circus clown show. It’s actually embarassing.
The gift which keeps on giving as some here say!!!!!
Mostly Interested says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 7:10 pm
P1, Albo’s to blame for high petrol prices, riiiiight….
中华人民共和国
Wasn’t that long ago that P1 wanted “price signals” to be sent to battling Australian families. Different line, different day.
It is a weird world.
Will the negotiations go ahead despite the fact that the provisional cease fire is as dead as VLCC traffic through the SoH?
Will Kushner, Witkoff and Vance still hie themselves off to the talks?
And what of Shehbaz Sharif? Both Netanyahu and Trump have branded him an out-and-out liar. How do negotiations work when the main go-between has been given the public lie?
So many questions. So few answers.
Thanks Upnorth. Good to see you drop by every so often.
I thought the temperature was around 100F in Jan, but I see it’s ticked up a bit of recent.
I think things here went up a notch after Bondi.
“things” were quite relaxed during mid/late 2025, and then the temp went up.
My personal read.
nadia says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 7:23 pm
Thanks Upnorth. Good to see you drop by every so often.
I thought the temperature was around 100F in Jan, but I see it’s ticked up a bit of recent.
I think things here went up a notch after Bondi.
“things” were quite relaxed during mid/late 2025, and then the temp went up.
My personal read.
中华人民共和国
Agree mate. Ok I’m off for a Water Fight and a Cold Beer. 38 in Bangkok today. Be safe one and all.
One nation is doing the yards for the libs provided Young Angus stands up.
Lot easier for libs to get one nation votes then pinch labors.
Inflation tidal wave about to hit Australia and the bond market today is pricing in three interest rate rises this year that’s on top of the past two in two months.
That is going to smash the mortgage belt and with inflation massive we sadly will be lucky to dodge a labor recession.
Singapore noodles today will say to Albo they cannot do much
on fuel.Four years Labor did nothing.
The world largest air forces in 2026
Source: Visual Capitalist
https://share.google/bXbal3yDWJMhUKfvT
@nadia at 7:19pm
My main fear is that this could be a repeat of the 2010 election where John Brumby’s Labor government was leading the whole time up until it didn’t, and it lost.
Jacinta Allan’s government isn’t going very well and she seems to be behaving in the same way as John Brumby did up until his loss. And I voted for the Liberals in the 2010 Victorian state election, much to my regret, only I was young, foolish and disconnected, just I voted by my feelings that Brumby was arrogant and standoffish and Baillieu seemed reasonable and not wanting to match the devilry of the Kennett government of the 90’s.
Allan needs an obvious change of strategy at this moment if she doesn’t want to lose.
Nicholas from earlier on…
I think the cynical pact between Hitler and Stalin to carve up Poland between them (that is the Slavic peoples of a mainly Slavic state) in 1940 refutes your soft-soap “Let’s try to understand Russia’s point of view”.
Most people “get” Russia.
A sour joke which Poles have used to explain their attitude to both of their aggressive neighbours tells of a Polish army officer who is detailed to shot two spies – one from Russia, the other from Germany.
He is asked which one will be shot first: He replies that it will be the German. When as why, he replies it is a matter of putting ‘business before pleasure’.
The obvious acid of this joke is that, to a Pole, after WW2, it would not matter which of the two spies got done away with first………
It is the Russian people who have suffered most at the hands of the Russian governments from the time of Czars until now.
found wrongdoing was done,” he said. “There was some wrongdoing that was found to be credible … part of us moving forward as a country is acknowledging where we’ve done well and done right, and also acknowledging where we’ve gone wrong.”
The West Australian MP, often touted as a possible future leader of the Coalition, said that while “things never go right” at the “pointy end” of combat, the actions of a few did not define the whole.’] – SMH
Witnesses for the prosecution & defence should generally avoid making public statements before the trial. And politicians (eg, Hanson) and people in the public eye (eg, Rinehart) should follow Albanese’s example:
“I have no intention of commenting on a matter that’s clearly before the courts.”
Hastie should have followed Albanese’s lead, though he didn’t post anything to his website that would prejudice a fair trial.
TPOF – good to see you back here.
I enjoy reading your material here, as I’m sure most here do.
Thanks you for coming back.
OK, footy time.
“Agree mate. Ok I’m off for a Water Fight and a Cold Beer”
============
Upnorth, is that a word play on “water rat and sticky fried rice.”
Yes, I remember, but gosh, I couldn’t eat water rat. This is terrible!
Ok enough. 6.05 PM PB time Sunday, we should have a National Resolve Poll via the SMH/Age.
Maybe more chat Sunday evening. Ciao!
Upnorthsays:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 7:20 pm
Mostly Interested says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 7:10 pm
P1, Albo’s to blame for high petrol prices, riiiiight….
中华人民共和国
Wasn’t that long ago that P1 wanted “price signals” to be sent to battling Australian families. Different line, different day.
===========================================
He spent all March saying the Government must ration fuel. If they had he would have been the first to blame them for a non-necessary measure now I expect. P1 is the most dishonest of critics.
I hope these clowns are finished so that serious people like Nadia and I can comment on important issues.
One Nation pledges net negative immigration of 100000 thereby solving the housing crisis in 3 years!
Now the goal is to get the Coalition on board as junior partner in the next government……
Timmysays:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 8:08 pm
One Nation pledges net negative immigration of 100000 thereby solving the housing crisis in 3 years!
=========================================
Deport MAGA supporting creeps to the USA.
Kirsdarkesays:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 7:35 pm
@nadia at 7:19pm
Allan needs an obvious change of strategy at this moment if she doesn’t want to lose.
_______________________
We are broke. There is not much she can do.
Free PT has turned out to be a PR fizzer. People are not thanking the govt. They are whinging about having to stand in the aisle from Lara all the way to Southern Cross.
@Entropy at 8:10pm
On leaky boats. See how they manage the experience.
Timmy, I can see you’ve had input to the ON migration policy. Congrats on that.
The price of fuel is not going to drop in the short term. Diesel is still sky-high in the Asian markets. Petrol is a bit better -high but falling a little. No additional oil has made it out of the Gulf in recent days. Even when it starts it then takes two weeks to get to the Asian refineries, needs to get processed and then it is about two weeks to get to ports in Australia. Things are going to be high until at least mid-May through to early June.
Supply won’t be as much of an issue as there is a drop in demand and we have been buying from literally anywhere that will supply us.
There’s too many inner city councils and arguably not enough western city councils in Sydney.
Liverpool stretches from Greendale out near Warragamba Dam all the way down to Chipping Norton/Voyager Point. It could take you an hour drive in peak times to get from one end to the other. The section west of the new Airport should be cut off and put into Camden.
Penrith is also too big these days as well. Richmond/Windsor/Kurrajong should be part of a single council area.
Ryde, Hunters Hill, Lane Cove, Willoughby, North Sydney and Mosman should be merged into a single North Harbour LGA. 6 councils for that area is crazy.
The three coastal LGA’s of Woolahra, Waverley and Randwick should merge into a Central Beaches LGA.
Canada Bay Strathfield and Burwood should merge with the Inner West LGA.
George’s River should merge with Canterbury.
Then Bayside should be split in three pieces, with the West side of the Airport into Canterbury, and the other side having Mascot go into Sydney and the eastern side of the M1 going into Randwick.
Victoria says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 2:04 pm
Unfortunately it’s not just the Israeli govt who think it’s within their rights to blow up civilians.
Is it anti semetic to say that Israel is a terrorist state. Asking for a friend?
All the norms since the second world war have been thrown under the bus. I believe Israel being able to chant anti-semetic to cover it’s crimes is one of them.
Time to accept plonking an apartheid state in the middle east was not a smart move.
@Taylormade at 8:13pm
“Urgh”. That’s really all I have to say on the matter.
I mean obviously it’s going to be worse if a Liberal-National-One Nation government wins in November but Allan isn’t exactly offering much incentive to vote for her these days.
Just show up in building zones in a hi-vis vest and a hard hat, look sour and call it a day.
@nadia says: Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 7:19 pm
“Anyway, as of Thurs 9-Apr, I will put myself down for a Labor minority win in Vic come November, with a couple of Greens to prop the Labor gov’t up. Reason for this – is the relatively high Green primary in Victoria.”
~~~~~~~~~~
I remember you bringing up a federal VIC poll from YouGov putting the Green primary vote on 16% and it seems like one of your interpretations of the potential fall outs is that it could potentially lead to a minority government like Gillard. However, the pessimistic side of me can’t see this trend continuing in the long term unless the Greens find their very own charismatic, media savvy, left populist leader similar to Zack Polanski or Zohran Mamdani.
Furthermore, I apologise for asking too many disjointed questions about the Greens. The fact that they got 16% in a Federal intentions poll in VIC is crazy and it’s firing up so many questions in my head because the recent surge left populist forces like the Green Party of England and Wales (and it’s fallout in British politics) has captured my interest in how a similar situation situation could unfold in Australia.
1. What are some seats that the Greens will win and could be competitive in, assuming that the Greens continue to perform well in VIC? I feel like Prahran, Northcote and Footscray would be gained by the Greens. Additionally, I have heard that they’re campaigning a lot in Broadmeadows and Ringwood. Albert Park also looks ripe for the picking too if the Greens manage to keep their momentum.
2. There is the looming threat of Liberal preferences flowing to Labor may stop the Greens in seats like Pascoe Vale, Preston and Richmond. Would an improved primary vote for the Greens help them overcome this curse?
3. Could you see the contempt for Jacinta Allen’s government lead to a Victorian version of the Fanny Bay effect where Green preferences lead to Liberals picking up some seats?
@Steve777 says: Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 6:57 pm
“There was a partially successful attempt to amalgamate council areas in the 2010s by the Coalition Government (there used to be 44), but it was resisted and ultimately abandoned. As a result we have a mix of large councils like Blacktown (population over 400,000) and tiny nimby councils a few km across and populations of a several tens of thousands.”
~~~~
From what I’ve heard, many suburbs and LGAs within Sydney have strong local identities and would be unwilling to give it up. Even in an amalgamated LGA like Inner West where there should be a strong shared identity and community of interest between the former Ashfield, Leichhardt and Marrickville LGAs, the residents have voted to de-merge it. Also, some of the amalgamations seem dubious, like Canterbury-Bankstown, with the former being Inner West and the latter being more Western Sydney.
I’ve also heard of complaints about the failure to bring efficiency and lower reduced services, but Sydneysiders may attest to this better than I could. On an off note, I think Perth could do with amalgamating some councils (cough, Peppermint Grove, Bassendean, East Fremantle…)
Deport far left creeps to the part of Israel currently known as Palestine to the Muslims. I’m sure the people there will have ample enthusiasm for their unique blend of gender theory and toxic misandry.
nadia at 6:08pm
It’s great to have you back – I have so greatly missed your long winded posts telling us all nothing that we could not see with our own eyes by clicking on BludgerTrack, by reading WB’s posts and by logical anticipated of poll releases based on typical schedules.
As to BludgerTrack currently showing the ALP primary at 29.6% (updated yesterday) I have for a couple of weeks now been dropping hints to WB that it would be good to refresh us all on the methods behind the aggregate – but nothing forthcoming yet. I recall a long time ago that he revealed that he implements “house effects” which seem to be more penalising the Labor primary then increasing it, on a logic that Labor typically under performs its polls on election day.
It is clear to anyone running their eye down the raw data of polls since start of Feb that the average of the Labor vote is >30% nationally. The last 7 [polls going back 2 weeks all have the Labor PV starting with a ‘3’, inclduing the well regard Newspoll and Redbridge. Apart from the very bouncy Roy Morgan, only YouGov has had Labor PV <30% (they have gone 29,30,29,30) and the Demos AU had a 29%. Perhaps with its sample size it was very highly weighted.
The Roy Morgan's tat had 27% and 29.5% before 22/3 should by now be heavily outweighed by more recent polls from the same pollster of 30% and 30.5%.
Looking at the trend data – something you can all do on this knowledgeable blog – it would seem that if a could more polls come in with Labor PV at 30% or greater, there should be a sharp uptick very soon
Bizzcan it’s not Greens policy yet, could change but even if it doesn’t I still think it’s worth exploring
Note I’m not talking nationalising the health system or the NDIS, just the provision of the services rather than having contractors doing it e.g. do the job of those who organise the carers etc and make the carers public servants
Wouldn’t be bad bringing more private hospitals into the public system though
I think a few here were saying a few weeks back that Albo should go early because of the LNP disarray and the ON vote splitting.
At the same time I too was watching the Labor PV dip below 30%, thinking to myself, theres no way in hell that would be a good idea.
On the whole, if Jacinta Allan wants to win, she needs to campaign like Dan Andrews did in 2011-2014, not how he did from 2018-2023.
She needs to stake her own claim in politics, not just take up the succession and assume all goes fine and dandy because the Liberals suck so much.
Wanting the NDIS to be a public service ignores the problems identified with the disability sector being government run.
I turn on the TV and inadvertently see the Blues a few points in front, a few minutes late 24 pts down, yep thats about right.
Israel right to exist?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEoIUoH6kZY
What a joke! 🙂
Good to see Nadia back.
I really do hesitate to bag Nadia, because it really is great to have her back. But if ever you’re the subject of a comment like this from her, it’s an almost certain sign that there’s something seriously wrong with you.
Albanese is ATM around 100% intent on using his full term to implement Labor’s agenda.
So it starts ….
https://thewest.com.au/business/retail/major-food-producers-brace-for-prolonged-supply-chain-crisis-as-nervous-consumers-begin-to-stockpile–c-22118183
Responding to ‘Ceasefire’, Netanyahu said “we are on trigger” after smashing Central Beirut with 100 targets in 10 minutes and killing over 250 people.
Democrats are also responsible for this mess.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HO5SClVehBk
I may NDIS in future, who knows but it is a White elephant policy, which was implemented without proper thought by ALP. And then used and bastardised by L-NP for party political purposes.
pied piper says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 8:55 pm
So it starts ….
https://thewest.com.au/business/retail/major-food-producers-brace-for-prolonged-supply-chain-crisis-as-nervous-consumers-begin-to-stockpile–c-22118183
Irrational hording, what is there to be proud of?
Timmysays:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 8:24 pm
Deport far left creeps to the part of Israel currently known as Palestine to the Muslims. I’m sure the people there will have ample enthusiasm for their unique blend of gender theory and toxic misandry.
============================================
Toxic Timmy how is your petrol hoarding going?
Have you started to bottle your farts yet?
This all started just a couple of months ago with a bad experience with a carpet cleaning firm.
Projection, thy embodiment is “Entropy”.
William Bowesays:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 9:17 pm
Deport far left creeps to the part of Israel currently known as Palestine to the Muslims. I’m sure the people there will have ample enthusiasm for their unique blend of gender theory and toxic misandry.
==========================================
This all started just a couple of months ago with a bad experience with a carpet cleaning firm.
========================================
The stains from a burnt cross can be very hard to remove. Probably not best burning it in the living room in the first place though.