The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor up a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 20%, One Nation down two to 25% and the Greens steady on 13%. Labor holds two-party leads of 55-45 over both the Coalition and One Nation. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 39% and down two on disapproval to 55%, while Angus Taylor improves not inconsiderably with a four-point increase in approval to 38% and a three-point drop in disapproval to 39%. Albanese leads 44-36 on preferred prime minister, out from 43-37. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1500.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up half a point to 30.5%, the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 24%, One Nation down two to 21.5%, and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 12%. In Labor-versus-Coalition terms, the poll finds Labor leading 56-44 based on previous election and 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (the latter measure has on average had Labor a point higher since the last election). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1411.
Roy Morgan also had an SMS poll recording an 83-17 split in favour of the government’s decision to cut fuel excise on petrol and diesel, although there was a 64-36 split against the government on satisfaction of its management of the shortage. Respondents were also invited to provide open-ended responses as to who they blamed and why, which you can read about in very great detail in an accompanying report. This poll was conducted March 26 to April 1 from a sample of 2514.
A poll I missed last Thursday was a RedBridge Group/Accent Research “super-poll” of 5563 respondents in the Financial Review. It was slightly dated in having been conducted from March 6 to 19, and did not feature a national headline result, its raison d’etre being breakdowns with significant samples. I will add the results later today from the four largest states and by age, gender, language, housing tenure and past vote to the BludgerTrack poll data archive, and stick here to the bits it’s unable to accommodate. Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group has published a cross-tabulation for generation by financial stress to illustrate the point that stressed older voters are voting One Nation while their younger equivalents are voting Greens, a point he elaborated on in an accompanying analysis piece.
My own favourite cross-tabulation is age-by-gender, which offers a too-rare look at one of the most striking electoral phenomena of our time, namely the pronounced gender gap that has developed among young voters. Among “Gen-Z” men, Labor is on 39%, the Coalition 12%, One Nation 19% and the Greens 24%; among women, Labor is on 26%, the Coalition 14%, One Nation 11% and the Greens 38%. The pattern is reflected in lesser degree among “millennials”, the result for men being Labor 36%, Coalition 16%, One Nation 26% and Greens 13%, and for women Labor 28%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 27% and Greens 15%. For “Gen-X” men, Labor is on 32%, the Coalition 18%, One Nation 35% and the Greens 6%; for women, Labor 29%, the Coalition 21%, One Nation 31% and Greens 9%. Among “baby boomer” men, Labor is on 27%, the Coalition 30%, One Nation 31% and the Greens 4%; among women, Labor 33%, the Coalition 24%, One Nation 32% and the Greens 3%.
The poll also asked four questions of the 491 respondents who said they would vote One Nation. Seventy per cent agreed their choice was a “tactic to make the major parties listen to ordinary Australians”, with only 18% disagreeing. However, 65% felt it “important to elect qualified leaders, even if we don’t always agree with them”, with 14% disagreeing. Fifty-four per cent felt “almost anything is better than the way things are going now, I just want to vote for change”, with 24% disagreeing.
The Australia Institute has an unrelated YouGov poll (hat-tip to Nadia in comments), conducted March 12 to 19 from a sample of 1502, as part of its campaign for a gas exports tax but encompassing voting intention. The result includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know” component, with the rest being Labor 26%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 24% and Greens 12%. The full report features breakdowns by state, age and gender. It also finds 60% agreeing that Australia exports too much gas, with only 10% disagreeing.
Tankies are armoured against reality.
Sal Mercogliano is not impressed with the ceasefire and its effect on the SoH: “Where are the ships?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-Lanu_I9AY
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 5:28 pm
That would be ‘agora’…
– – – – – – – – – – – – –
I think Griff was going for the plural, which would be correct for “one of the most diverse Xs”.
But agora is Greek not Latin, and it should be genitive plural – “one of the most diverse agorōn”.
I’ll see myself out…
From the set of polls in this week’s and last week’s blog posts (April 3rd), can anyone explain why Labor has been somewhat improving in it’s primary vote and to an extent, the 2pp vote as well? (The 2pp on previous election preferences for Labors was slightly better last week than this week’s, hence why I said 2pp improved to an extent)
I would assume it could be incumbency during a crisis and backlash against Trump, but neither explanations feels like it fully explains these results.
Idk if this “trend” will become a new trajectory for polling or if this is just another aberration which coincidentally repeated itself for a 2nd week in a row. If this somehow happens again next week my interest in this conundrum will be piqued.
Thank you. Haha. Hung by my own pedant. Pedants rush in where angels fear to tread.
BWestie
A guess:
A significant number of those polled seem to have formed the conclusion that Labor was a competent government during a crisis and that the decisions being made by the Labor Government were working, all things considered.
Outside looking in something needs to change with the NDIS but I’d much prefer we talked about the net cost i.e. how many people have been able to go back to work etc?
Either way, bringing the management of the scheme in-house cuts out a layer of profit takers. It would be a big call though, and take time to rebuild
Just cutting dollars from the budget allocation isn’t the answer
About the only positive thing I can think of to say about the latest bout of Trump’s (and Middle Eastern) insanity is Mercogliano.
I have followed him for some time. He has not disappointed.
@Bludgeoned Westie at 5:52pm
Yeah, probably a result of the Iran War and continued Coalition-One Nation infighting. Albo’s Labor government appears to be holding things steady here, so the downturn in polls starting from the shock of the Bondi Beach massacre in December appears to have stopped for the moment.
DPR of CBR
But the Romans built their own agoras in various places, including one in Athens itself (which is called, you’ll be astonished to learn, the Roman Agora). Perhaps the plural of Roman Agora would be Roman Agorae.
I thought there were some good points in Hatcher’s commentary just an hour ago. Sobering.
https://youtu.be/lYfA7djQM94?si=1Xaogn0u_gxyV3Xy
It’s red letter day: haven’t see hide nor hair of Awkward Angus on
“getting the fuel out there” all day. He missed the “Airbus Albo” opportunity as well. I suspect that someone in his office was squealing “No Angus!! No!! No!! No!!” very loudly.
Not much from ON either, but I think they’re busy obsessing about BRS. There’s a message there somewhere.
newy boy at 4:12pm
> I believe that even a non-Trump USA would probably attack Mexico to stop that happening.
I believe you are correct.
> However, that does not make such an attack right.
Of course it doesn’t. It does however rather limit the moral right of the US and its supporters to criticise other nations for doing the very things their nation would do in a similar situation. THAT is the point.
If we as Australians want to criticise Russia (deservedly) for its imperialism, we should not be shacking up geopolitically with imperialist powers that are just as bad (USA). Glass houses and stone-throwing and all that.
Awkward Angus and pp were saying they want a fuel scoreboard or something. Grattan has this:
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-taylor-and-canavan-are-chalk-and-cheese-and-thats-a-problem-for-taylor-279766
For a moment I misread “agora” as “angora” and thought of the delightful fluffy angora rabbit.
*Agorae Romanae.
Blugeoned Westie
I think it’s a bit like the situation in the US. Few people are really happy with the incumbents – either government or opposition – but the alternatives currently look even worse.
I expect things will bounce around quite a lot before settling. But where they will settle is anyone’s guess. No Notion might get their act together. Or the Greens might. Stranger things have happened.
My own guess would be that just like a dog on the furniture, the bipartisan parties are going to continue to shed no matter what else they do, and as a result we are going to see a lot more Independents. Personally, I see that as a very good thing.
Bludgeoned Westie at 5.52pm.
Labor is sitting at 29.6% on BT, which was updated yesterday.
We have another National poll due on Sunday evening, as well as the weekly Roy Morgan next Monday.
The ALP primary is not looking glamourous in QLD & VIC, although the Green vote in Vic seems to be on the rise. The Green vote in Vic, may be propping up the National ALP vote, given Victoria is our 2nd largest state. (In simple speak, polls out of Victoria outrank polls in QLD).
The Labor Primary sank below 30% on BT in early Feb. I accept a couple of recent polls have shown the Labor primary at 29-32 %, but the BT computer says otherwise.
{Code speak: I’m not going to argue with a computer}.
Dutchman Mark Rutte, NATO chief, is siding with Trump wrt the fight between NATO allies and Trump.
– SMH
For personal reasons, I hope he doesn’t send this one:
https://www.navy.gov.au/capabilities/ships-boats-and-submarines/hmas-stuart-iii
Sorry, to clarify, Victoria does not outrank QLD, but given Victoria is 1.5 times the size of QLD (population wise), the polling out of Victoria needs to be taken very seriously.
The You Gov (Federal vote intention out of Victoria) poll, which was dropped this morning by Pied Piper, needs to be monitored. It’s one poll, but it had the Greens sitting at 16%. This is a significant number.
It’s significant because Victoria accounts for about 26% of Australia’s population. Not 1 or 3 %, but 26%.
ie: a quarter of the country
meher babasays:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 5:58 pm
But the Romans built their own agoras in various places, including one in Athens itself (which is called, you’ll be astonished to learn, the Roman Agora). Perhaps the plural of Roman Agora would be Roman Agorae.
– – – – – – –
Now that is a bit of a linguistic conundrum … the Romans only built “agoras” in the Greek-speaking part of their empire. Elsewhere, the same structures are called forums (or fora if you prefer). So they are clearly just using the pre-existing greek word and sticking their own language’s syntax with it. Latin speakers would use “agorae”, in the same way as we would say “agoras”.
I didn’t interpret Griff as shifting into Latin, but perhaps I was wrong – “errare humanum est” and all that. While the odd Latin tag gets thrown out here, I don’t think anyone going full Latin in this forum would be an aid to comprehension. I’m willing to give it a crack if you are, though. 🙂
Thanks for all the answers to my question about Russia winning against the numbers.
I’m not sure Napoleon’s invasion counts. My understanding is that the numbers are a bit uncertain and fairly evenly matched, with either side possibly having a slight edge.
Ticktock, Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 6:02 pm:
You mistake me. I don’t want Australia merely to criticise Russia for its unprovoked, illegal and unjustified war of imperial conquest of Ukraine. I want Australia to keep materially supporting Ukraine’s resistance to that hideous invasion and occupation by Putin’s imperial Russian Army. As I assume do you as well. I for one will keep advocating for both the criticism of Russia and the support of Ukraine. I certainly will never bow to any suggestion that we ought to leave Ukraine to the cruel subjugation of Russian occupation (with its filtration camps, which have ‘disappeared’ untold numbers of Ukrainian civilians and citizen soldiers, men, women and children alike), just because some other world powers have not been sufficiently criticised to my liking.
Also, do not forget that Iran has been much more of an enabler of Russia’s invasion and occupation of Ukraine than we have been enablers of the US-Israeli attacks (not invasion, and certainly not occupation) on Iran. I take it you have no gripe with the Ukrainians helping out with attacks upon a country which has materially helped Russia attack them! After all, they would have been well within their rights to attack Iran directly themselves.
“Depopulation” through vaccines hey and following the Greens on Tax Policy. Make of it as you will.
Me I’m off for Songkhran. Thai New New – Sawsadee Bi Mi Thai (Happy Thai New Year) Bludgers.
Internal One Nation documents accidentally leaked to MPs across parliament have exposed a number of the populist party’s draft policies across migration, health and energy, such as a proposal to introduce new broad-based taxes on the oil and gas sector.
The Australian understands an email was sent to MPs across the political divide on Thursday morning that contained an access link to what appeared to be a One Nation Senate team internal folder titled “PHON Senate Share”.
As a consequence, draft policies and internal documents were accidentally shared to the government and opposition, including a proposal to abolish the petroleum resource rent tax and replace it with an across-the-board royalty for domestic use and exported oil and gas.
One Nation said the incident was part of a breach that was not the fault of any member of the party or its staff, but instead the Department of Parliamentary Services and IT department.
Members of the party told The Australian that parliamentarians and their staff did not have the power to easily open up access and change permissions in such a way, pointing to how this had not been possible in the past even for sharing folders and documents easily across One Nation offices.
DPS said it was investigating “a potentially inadvertent access issue” but would not comment further “until all circumstances are known”.
“The Department of Parliamentary Services takes its responsibilities seriously in safeguarding the information of parliamentarians held on the parliamentary computing network,” a spokeswoman said.
The document proposing to abolish the PRT, seen by The Australian, also suggests a special investment vehicle that would receive equity from production and in turn spend that income on long-term financial returns.
There has been some momentum in the parliament for a new kind of tax specifically on gas exports since the sector is expected to enjoy windfall profits because of the Middle East war.
Angus Taylor has come out in opposition to the idea, after senior frontbencher Andrew Hastie two weeks ago said the Liberal Party should be open to the idea.
“What I do know is if you whack a tax on something, you get less of it,” the Opposition Leader said in response to Mr Hastie.
“And right now I want to see more crude oil. I want to see more gas. I want to see more houses. And that has to be an imperative for this budget and it has to be an imperative for the government.”
The leaked One Nation “gas tax and joint venture policy” appears to suggest the party should advocate to “abolish the current petroleum resource rent tax and replace it with a royalty levied on the wellhead value of oil and gas extracted in Australia, ensuring stable, predictable revenues for the Australian people from every oil and gas project regardless of export or domestic use”.
It also suggests One Nation should advocate to “introduce a natural resource joint venture scheme, funding exploration expenditure in commonwealth waters in exchange for an equity participation by the commonwealth in any resulting production licences”.
“(One Nation should) hold and manage these equity interests through a commonwealth-controlled special investment vehicle, delivering direct public ownership of resources, long-term financial returns, fuel security, and strategic flexibility while partnering with industry rather than acting as an adversary,” the document said.
One Nation already advocates in its policy platform to levy a royalty on production, but the leaked document contains more details than previously stated.
The Greens and independent ACT senator David Pocock have been advocating for a gas tax.
Opposition industry spokesman Mr Hastie has previously said he was “open minded”.
The One Nation document pointed to how Norway had created a sovereign wealth fund with oil and gas revenue, stating “We keep hearing that oil and gas giants are making money hand over fist; let’s not shut them down, let’s make money, too”.
“This is the only plan to get out of debt, secure our fuel supply and build a better Australia,” the document said, noting the policy would give “Australians ownership of their resources”.
Other internal documents include the party’s view on legislation presented to parliament, including an amendment to immunisation that would broaden the definition of vaccines to enable “new and emerging technologies” to be listed in immunisation programs.
Under “core concerns”, One Nation noted: “This bill leaves the door wide open for further depopulation via ‘immunisation’. It would allow toxic injections that do not create an immune response to be added to the immunisation schedule.”
In a subsection of the document labelled “sensitivities/stakeholder concerns”, the phrase “come and get your next weaponised poisonous injection, sponsored and mandated by your government” was listed.
Documents also showed the party was considering shifting its focus from using net overseas migration when designing policies and instead use “arrivals”.
“The NOM is a number built on assumptions that can be subject to significant revisions and does not reflect the true nature of cross-border movements. To the extent possible … we should wean ourselves off using it,” one of the documents in the shared file said.
Members of the party also proposed scrutiny over the New Zealand migration program, noting that while it was “good for our relationship with our close Kiwi brethren in theory”, it risked providing backdoor entry for foreigners into Australia.
“Of New Zealand citizens who migrated to Australia in 2024, 35 per cent were foreign-born,” the One Nation document said.
“It may be worth addressing the NZ issue, potentially by adding a condition that the Australian citizenship fast-track only applies to NZ-born citizens.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/email-breach-reveals-one-nation-plans-for-norwaystyle-gas-and-oil-tax-fund/news-story/6d81d20e5059bba56b213fd7a94678ad?amp
I think we did this last year, but for the Sydney-siders and Melbournian’s who might be wondering which is Australia’s biggest metropolitan city… The winner is…Sydney.
* Sydney 5.638 million
* Melbourne 5.435 million.
The BBC reported that Melbourne had overtaken Sydney a couple of years ago.
Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-65261720
It was a “fake report” from the BBC.
Here is the correct ABS data, issued on 31-Mar
Link: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/latest-release
In simple speak, Sydney remains our largest city, but on current trends Melbourne will overtake Sydney on/around 2030/2031. Whoopee-dooo-dah!
Those were the days …
https://youtu.be/iAfnvyYVVsE?si=Qz8Rl231YtV7s_KO
newy boy at 6:21pm
Yes, you assume correctly – I am in support of this, and in support of deepening ties with nations such as the UK, France, and Germany in order to do it. What I am not in support of is the moral inconsistency of being nationally unable to apply the same standards to certain countries (USA, Israel) when they do the same monstrously imperialist wars of aggression.
In my hypothetical earlier about the US attacking Mexico to remove a Chinese military base that the Mexicans agreed to host, I would also support sending arms to Mexico to fight the Americans. I suspect this would be a minority position, but I believe it is the only morally consistent one.
This is an interesting piece …
https://thepoint.com.au/explainers/260402-the-fuel-crisis-your-questions-answered
So, instead of proper fuel rationing, we get the most iniquitous and inequitable type of fuel rationing imaginable – i.e. the rich get as much fuel as they want, and the poor get shafted.
But not just the poor here in Australia – we are shafting our poorer neighbours as well …
Well done, Albo.
The oyster farmer with the nazi tattoo is shucking it in Maine Senate race…
@nadia
Yeah, I’m keeping an eye on Victorian polling numbers as well. I do think Labor is in trouble here, and the only reason they’re competitive for November is that their opposition is such an omnishamble.
Things should be more clear after the Nepean by-election on 2 May, whether a Liberal, Teal or One Nation candidate wins it.
Footy about to kick off tonight. My tips.
Panthers
Sea Eagles
Bunnies
Sharks
Storm
Eels
Tigers
For AFL:
Crows
Pies
Lions
Demons
Swans
Hawks
Cats
Giants
Power
Should have a Resolve National Poll Sunday around 6PM PB time.
Another Morgan on Monday.
Have a great weekend all.
Edit: “Centre” come back!
Thanks. Grattan is on the money, IMO.
Practically all goods and service in Australia are rationed by price.
It is BAU.
Hardly a blinding insight. But still, if you live only to slag Albanese, any hook will do.
Ticktock, Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 6:26 pm:
My view as well. Personally, I have come to regard Trump’s USA as an enemy of Ukraine, so they have that black mark against them too in my book.
nadia says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 6:23 pm
I think we did this last year, but for the Sydney-siders and Melbournian’s who might be wondering which is Australia’s biggest metropolitan city… The winner is…Sydney.
* Sydney 5.638 million
* Melbourne 5.435 million.
中华人民共和国
Hey Nads. Good to see you again mate.
Not only do Southerners have to put up with the Odious Daylight Saving and the “unrepresentative swill” of Upper Houses, they have more Local Governments than I’ve had hot breakfasts.
FYI
Council and Population
Brisbane City Council
~1.3–1.36 million
City of Sydney
~210k–230k
City of Melbourne
~170k–190k
Hmm… nadia picks hawks to roll dogs. Where there is life there is hope.
The Dogs did the Hawks over in the pre-season and the Dogs have not looked back in the season proper.
Losing their ruck will be a big test…
Boerwar at 6:34pm
For once, I agree with Boerwar.
This is also the basis on which I found it to be reasonable politics, but poor economics for Albanese to cut the fuel excise – the government countermanding a market price signal is an interesting choice for a government that extolls free market economics.
Melbourne v Sydney?
Quality v Quantity.
The Albanese Government does not extol free market economics.
Upnorth, Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 6:35 pm:
Hi Upnorth, great to hear from you again!
Mind you, the stat you give above does give a platform for the likes of a Campbell Newman. Nobody here (NSW) even knows who their Mayor is most of the time.
So. What’s next?
BW – are you doing Jed Bartlet?
newy boy says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 6:38 pm
Upnorth, Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 6:35 pm:
Not only do Southerners have to put up with the Odious Daylight Saving and the “unrepresentative swill” of Upper Houses, they have more Local Governments than I’ve had hot breakfasts.
FYI
Council and Population
Brisbane City Council
~1.3–1.36 million
Hi Upnorth, great to hear from you again!
Mind you, the stat you give above does give a platform for the likes of a Campbell Newman. Nobody here (NSW) even knows who their Mayor is most of the time.
中华人民共和国
Hey cobber. Hope you are well. Keep up the good work.
I’d like counter with 8 year terms for the likes of Mark Latham and Cory Bernardi.
Campbell fortunately only got 3 years as Premier. The residents of Brisbane though were not as enlightened and he fooled them for a few terms.
Andrew Hastie has acknowledged he may be called to testify against one-time special forces comrade Ben Roberts-Smith in his criminal trial. In his first formal statement since the Victoria Cross recipient was charged with five counts of war crime – murder, the Coalition MP urged the public to respect Mr Roberts-Smith’s right to the presumption of innocence.
Mr Hastie, a member of the SAS from 2010-15, was previously called as a witness at the failed defamation action Mr Roberts-Smith launched against Nine Newspapers in 2022. Mr Hastie outlined in his statement, released on Thursday afternoon, how he was one of 21 SAS veterans of the Afghanistan war subpoenaed as a witness in the defamation trial. “As a qualified member of the SAS, I was present on one of the operational missions in 2012 that was examined by the Federal Court,” Mr Hastie said. “I gave testimony under oath, as required by law. “Mr Roberts-Smith is now facing criminal charges in relation to this operational mission, so it is possible that I will be called as a witness to this trial. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/andrew-hastie-says-he-may-be-called-to-testify-against-ben-robertssmith/news-story/b67e9d6452f6bd48eb2ce91792369c86?amp
For what it is worth. My daughter ordered a new BYD electric car today. Salesman told her that their informal sales target was 300 cars per month. Last month they sold over 500 units, this month is on track to beat that number. This is in the ACT. Delivery of her order is expected in mid June.
Upnorth, Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 6:45 pm:
Yeah, you win there. Ugh!
I think the problem here is that most Australians believe that most other Australians are “rich”, just like they are. And if you live in a city – as the vast bulk of Australians do – you could be forgiven for thinking that, because by and large it’s true. But if you live elsewhere – where the actual fuel shortages are, and where the prices tend to be substantially higher – you might think otherwise. But hey, what do such people matter?
Well done, Albo.
The ABS figures for both Greater Melbourne and Greater Sydney include areas that are probably not considered to be part of either city. For example, Gisborne is included in Melbourne and the Central coast is included in Sydney. So it really matters where one draws the line.
But if you are going off the current boundaries, Melbourne will overtake Sydney in 2031.
A tweet that stuck with me today.