The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor up a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 20%, One Nation down two to 25% and the Greens steady on 13%. Labor holds two-party leads of 55-45 over both the Coalition and One Nation. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 39% and down two on disapproval to 55%, while Angus Taylor improves not inconsiderably with a four-point increase in approval to 38% and a three-point drop in disapproval to 39%. Albanese leads 44-36 on preferred prime minister, out from 43-37. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1500.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up half a point to 30.5%, the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 24%, One Nation down two to 21.5%, and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 12%. In Labor-versus-Coalition terms, the poll finds Labor leading 56-44 based on previous election and 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (the latter measure has on average had Labor a point higher since the last election). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1411.
Roy Morgan also had an SMS poll recording an 83-17 split in favour of the government’s decision to cut fuel excise on petrol and diesel, although there was a 64-36 split against the government on satisfaction of its management of the shortage. Respondents were also invited to provide open-ended responses as to who they blamed and why, which you can read about in very great detail in an accompanying report. This poll was conducted March 26 to April 1 from a sample of 2514.
A poll I missed last Thursday was a RedBridge Group/Accent Research “super-poll” of 5563 respondents in the Financial Review. It was slightly dated in having been conducted from March 6 to 19, and did not feature a national headline result, its raison d’etre being breakdowns with significant samples. I will add the results later today from the four largest states and by age, gender, language, housing tenure and past vote to the BludgerTrack poll data archive, and stick here to the bits it’s unable to accommodate. Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group has published a cross-tabulation for generation by financial stress to illustrate the point that stressed older voters are voting One Nation while their younger equivalents are voting Greens, a point he elaborated on in an accompanying analysis piece.
My own favourite cross-tabulation is age-by-gender, which offers a too-rare look at one of the most striking electoral phenomena of our time, namely the pronounced gender gap that has developed among young voters. Among “Gen-Z” men, Labor is on 39%, the Coalition 12%, One Nation 19% and the Greens 24%; among women, Labor is on 26%, the Coalition 14%, One Nation 11% and the Greens 38%. The pattern is reflected in lesser degree among “millennials”, the result for men being Labor 36%, Coalition 16%, One Nation 26% and Greens 13%, and for women Labor 28%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 27% and Greens 15%. For “Gen-X” men, Labor is on 32%, the Coalition 18%, One Nation 35% and the Greens 6%; for women, Labor 29%, the Coalition 21%, One Nation 31% and Greens 9%. Among “baby boomer” men, Labor is on 27%, the Coalition 30%, One Nation 31% and the Greens 4%; among women, Labor 33%, the Coalition 24%, One Nation 32% and the Greens 3%.
The poll also asked four questions of the 491 respondents who said they would vote One Nation. Seventy per cent agreed their choice was a “tactic to make the major parties listen to ordinary Australians”, with only 18% disagreeing. However, 65% felt it “important to elect qualified leaders, even if we don’t always agree with them”, with 14% disagreeing. Fifty-four per cent felt “almost anything is better than the way things are going now, I just want to vote for change”, with 24% disagreeing.
The Australia Institute has an unrelated YouGov poll (hat-tip to Nadia in comments), conducted March 12 to 19 from a sample of 1502, as part of its campaign for a gas exports tax but encompassing voting intention. The result includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know” component, with the rest being Labor 26%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 24% and Greens 12%. The full report features breakdowns by state, age and gender. It also finds 60% agreeing that Australia exports too much gas, with only 10% disagreeing.
Horseshoes are meant to be lucky lol
Yes and no in terms of politics though. While both the left and right agree the system is broken, but not necessarily how or why, we have different solutions
Time to get ready for work, enjoy your day folks
p.s. looking forward to seeing a Victorian thread based on the poll yesterday, awesome having Nadia back
I don’t know if anyone else agrees but I think the following pretty much sums up the state of the world since January 2025.
https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=Road+to+Nowhere&mid=701B7FC6033F004CEE24701B7FC6033F004CEE24&FORM=VIRE
Morning all. I was just about o post the article Griff posted about Israel continuing to strike Lebanon. This is blatantly unwarranted; Hezbollah was not striking Israel at the time.
Israel is, as feared, seeking to undermine the truce. It obviously suits them to have USA still fighting Iran.
Like the Ukraine war, there may not be peace in the middle east either as long as the USA keeps backing the aggressor.
Israel’s foreign policy is strongly against Australia’s national interest now. We are net economic losers from the Persian Gulf impasse continuing.
Fuel dashboard from the failing federal labor gov, when do we want it? Now!
https://www.news.com.au/finance/culture/inside-parliament/need-certainty-anthony-albanese-under-pressure-over-national-fuel-dashboard/news-story/3556ab946dc64277e829841792fa00a4
4 years in government labor has done nothing on fuel reserves now begging Singapore noodles for help today.
USA does not sell out democracy to terrorists, btw weak Australia and Europe will.
Hard Being Green says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 7:57 am
Horseshoes are meant to be lucky lol
Yes and no in terms of politics though. While both the left and right agree the system is broken, but not necessarily how or why, we have different solutions
Time to get ready for work, enjoy your day folks
p.s. looking forward to seeing a Victorian thread based on the poll yesterday, awesome having Nadia back
_________
Have a good day as well!
Personally I look around and also back through history, and I see far worse systems. I haven’t seen a better one. We definitely can improve our system – keen to have more of a Scandinavian flavor. But our system is certainly not broken, and I am very suspicious of the agenda of those that promote that it is.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-09/prime-minister-anthony-albanese-singapore-fuel-talks/106542828
In short:
The prime minister will hold talks with his Singaporean counterpart as the international fuel crisis continues.
Anthony Albanese is flying to Singapore on Thursday after the the Iran War highlighted Australia’s fuel supply vulnerabilities.
What’s next?
It’s part of an ongoing effort by the government to meet with and speak to regional partners to shore up fuel stores.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-mp-marilyn-gladu-crosses-floor-to-liberals-9.7156167
In Canada, the Liberals have picked up another Conservative floor-crosser, bringing them one seat closer to a possible majority government after Monday’s byelections
The US under Trump the Unpredictable might suddenly decide to apply pressure to Netanyahu. It has levers: funding and munitions.
Israel has a highly favourable trade deal with european nations. (Partly thus negotiated by way of Holocaust reparations).
One third of Israel’s trade is with the EU. The EU could exert considerable real world pressure on Netanyahu.
Other than that, I can’t think of anything that would cause Netanyahu to give his bloodlust a breather.
Albanese’s tactic with Trump has always been don’t buy-in and don’t bite back. Why has that changed?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/09/trump-albanese-tactics-changed-foreign-policy
“Rather, it strikes as the prime minister reacting to the Australian public’s resentment of Trump and the war in Iran, which is directly responsible for the spiralling petrol and diesel prices that motorists are paying at the bowser.
It is, as is so often the case with Albanese, a political calculation.”
World News & Politics Patrol:
U.S. has violated ceasefire agreement, Iran parliamentary speaker says: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/ceasefire-iran-war-lebanon.html
‘If Israel Attacks Lebanon…’: Iran Threatens To Withdraw From Ceasefire, Hormuz Traffic Halted: https://www.news18.com/world/iran-halts-hormuz-traffic-threat-withdraw-ceasefire-israel-attacks-lebanon-pakistan-west-asia-10022482.html
Iran says US violated deal framework, calls talks unreasonable: https://abcnews4.com/news/nation-world/iran-says-us-violated-deal-framework-calls-talks-unreasonable-agreement-truce-lebanon-ceasefire-war-conflict-bombing-airstrikes-attacks-operation-epic-fury-president-donald-trump-israeli-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-israel-united-states
Bombshell Report Reveals Trump Was Begging for Iran to Join Ceasefire: https://newrepublic.com/post/208815/trump-asked-iran-ceasefire
Sánchez to Trump: Spain won’t ‘applaud those who set the world on fire just because they then show up with a bucket’: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/08/spain-pm-sanchez-trump-iran-war-ceasefire-middle-east-crisis.html
At least 182 killed as Israel strikes central Beirut after saying Iran truce doesn’t apply there: https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/mideast-conflict/article/scores-killed-as-israel-strikes-central-beirut-after-saying-iran-ceasefire-doesnt-apply-there/
Germany accuses JD Vance of hypocrisy over claim that EU meddled in Hungary’s election: https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-rebuke-jd-vance-claim-eu-interferes-hungary-election/
Trump threatens 50% tariffs on countries supplying Iran with weapons: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-announces-50-tariffs-nations-supplying-iran-with-weapons-2026-04-08/
Trump administration signals it is mulling NATO withdrawal after Iran war: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/trump-administration-says-it-is-mulling-nato-withdrawal-after-iran-war
Italy summons Israeli ambassador after shots fired at UN in Lebanon: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/italy-summons-israeli-ambassador-after-shots-fired-at-un-in-lebanon
A hacker has allegedly breached one of China’s supercomputers and is attempting to sell a trove of stolen data : https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/08/china/china-supercomputer-hackers-hnk-intl
Billionaire returning to UK from Hong Kong to donate millions to Reform: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ben-delo-billionaire-reform-donation-farage-crypto-b2953845.html
Teens accused of bombing attempt at Mamdani home openly discussed plans to kill: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/08/gracie-mansion-bomb-attempt-mamdani
‘Ketamine Queen’ Jasveen Sangha jailed for 15 years over death of Matthew Perry: https://news.sky.com/story/ketamine-queen-jasveen-sangha-jailed-for-15-years-over-death-of-matthew-perry-13529344
ICE agents shoot man in car in northern California: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/07/ice-agents-shooting-california
pied piper says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 8:12 am
…
USA does not sell out democracy to terrorists
…]
You mean Trump’s ICE in the US?
Thanks, Hh.
The biter bit.
Labor has quietly established a razor gang to drive budget savings in the national disability insurance scheme, as it works to further rein in costs ahead of next month’s federal budget.
An NDIS Sustainability Taskforce was established within the health department earlier this year, with instructions from the federal government and national cabinet to advise on cost-cutting options for the $52bn program.
Led by the former Treasury official Anthea Long, the taskforce was not publicly announced but began work after the 30 January meeting between Anthony Albanese, state premiers and the health minister, Mark Butler.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/09/ndis-cuts-razor-gang-2026-federal-budget
Petrol at $2.11 on one of the main thoroughfares into Hobart this morning.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 8:23 am
Steve777 says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 7:55 am
Israel is just doing its own thing. The USA could put pressure on them, including a threat to withdraw support, which might rein them in. However, that’s not going to happen….
The US under Trump the Unpredictable might suddenly decide to apply pressure to Netanyahu. It has levers: funding and munitions.
Israel has a highly favourable trade deal with european nations. (Partly thus negotiated by way of Holocaust reparations).
One third of Israel’s trade is with the EU. The EU could exert considerable real world pressure on Netanyahu.
Other than that, I can’t think of anything that would cause Netanyahu to give his bloodlust a breather.
__________
Immunity from prosecution for all crimes past and present would be a key issue. Although it won’t be enough.
This feels vaguely reminiscent of an act by a certain party in the 1930’s…nah, must be imagining it…
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5822914-automatic-registration-military-draft/
Well, they lie about just everything going on with the Iran attack, so why should fudging the figures of US dead and wounded be any different.
https://theintercept.com/2026/04/08/us-military-casualties-wounded-iran-war/
Mostly Interested says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 8:31 am
Petrol at $2.11 on one of the main thoroughfares into Hobart this morning.
___________
Similar to Sydney. We are seeing a decoupling between petrol and diesel prices. Likely due to their use profile. Petrol demand being more elastic. It is the diesel price that has the greater pressure on overall inflation.
I read Ms Hewett’s column, about the road user charge, so you don’t have to:
https://www.afr.com/companies/transport/ev-surge-should-spark-action-on-road-user-charges-20260408-p5zm6w or https://archive.is/hnOH3
As Trump’s Iran rhetoric escalates, Australia turns to the art of diplomatic understatement
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-09/trump-iran-albanese-response/106544288
“When the bombs first started dropping, and Iran’s Supreme Leader was killed within minutes, there was little to no criticism from the Albanese government.
“We support the United States acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” the prime minister declared, “and to prevent Iran from continuing to threaten international peace and security.”
Questions of international law were brushed aside as matters for the US, not Australia.
:::
Then yesterday, the President of the United States went beyond anything a respectable ally could simply ignore.
Trump’s dire threat to wipe out a “whole civilisation” was both “inappropriate” and “extraordinary”, Albanese told Sky News.
:::
Reluctant to directly accuse Trump of creating an almighty mess, Wong was unable to say whether this whole costly exercise, and the global energy shock it caused, has been worth it.
“We have a much more unpredictable United States” under Donald Trump, was all Penny Wong could say. A diplomatic understatement.”
Was it too much to ask Netanyahu? Day after ceasefire with an Iran, maybe hold off a bit in Lebanon rather than escalate?
It’s almost like Netanyahu doesn’t want peace in Iran.
Maybe the Pakistanis should have been negotiating with the big boss instead of Trump?
Kronomex says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 8:32 am
This feels vaguely reminiscent of an act by a certain party in the 1930’s…nah, must be imagining it…
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5822914-automatic-registration-military-draft/
__________
Is the US jealous of events in Germany? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/05/uproar-germany-law-men-up-to-45-military-permission-long-stays-abroad
I am so thankful that our registration at 18 is to vote.
Pegasus says:
Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 8:38 am
As Trump’s Iran rhetoric escalates, Australia turns to the art of diplomatic understatement
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-09/trump-iran-albanese-response/106544288
“When the bombs first started dropping, and Iran’s Supreme Leader was killed within minutes, there was little to no criticism from the Albanese government.
“We support the United States acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” the prime minister declared, “and to prevent Iran from continuing to threaten international peace and security.”
Questions of international law were brushed aside as matters for the US, not Australia.
:::
Then yesterday, the President of the United States went beyond anything a respectable ally could simply ignore.
Trump’s dire threat to wipe out a “whole civilisation” was both “inappropriate” and “extraordinary”, Albanese told Sky News.
:::
Reluctant to directly accuse Trump of creating an almighty mess, Wong was unable to say whether this whole costly exercise, and the global energy shock it caused, has been worth it.
“We have a much more unpredictable United States” under Donald Trump, was all Penny Wong could say. A diplomatic understatement.”
__________
Good article. Particularly this quote:
“In the context and long history of the US-Australia alliance, this was a rare prime ministerial rebuke of a president’s wartime positioning.” 😉
Thanks Holden, Leroy and ors for today’s reports.
Just saying I’m missing c@t’s extensive daily reports.
Sigh
https://petrolspy.com.au/map/graph/brisbane
FWIW A screen shot of petrol 91/E10 prices in Brisbane. I’m not seeing the price rises being discussed here.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/08/petrol-prices-rise-australia-iran-ceasefire-cheaper-fuel
EDIT: added the missing link
In a war with no winners, Netanyahu looks like the biggest loser.
As Iran and US agree fragile ceasefire, Israel’s conflict has turned out to be a bust and, say opponents, ‘a political disaster’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/08/war-with-no-winners-netanyahu-israel-iran-us-ceasefire
What are we all meant to make of the VPOTUS JD Vance brazenly declaring black to be white?
“JD Vance claims US is not interfering in Hungary election:
US vice-president says on visit to Budapest ‘we had to show’ support for Viktor Orbán, as opposition leads polls”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/08/jd-vance-dismisses-claims-us-interfering-hungarian-election-budapest-viktor-orban
What is the messaging strategy here? Why would an administration willingly tell such immediately obvious self-evident lies about its own actions? It clearly does not care whether or not its pronouncements are believed – but why doesn’t it care? How does it help its own grip on power to make itself literally unbelievable?
But, even worse, is the elephant in the room which Vance has studiously avoided criticising: Russian interference in Hungarian politics (including this election) in support of Orban. If Vance is so concerned about foreign interference in Hungary’s election, why his silence on that?
Victoria, Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 8:45 am
Me too. And not just the DR.
As predicted, Netanyahu wants Big Daddy to finish the job in Iran. He knows full well that he’ll never again have the opportunity, certainly not under a Democratic administration.
You want to know how to save billions on the NDIS and keep the same or improve the level of service?
Nationalise it…
Yeah! And it appears Trump is terrified of US body count on foreign soil. Not so on US soil though.
HH thanks for the roundup. EU nations are already protesting Israel’s actions. It will be interesting to see if they take any action. Some like Spain and Italy might. They have little to lose except their refugee intakes.
Boerwar any action against Israel obviously depends on US politics. Kennedy considered it before dying but few since have attempted to. That being said, the actual levers are strong. Israel simply could not maintain the size of its military, let alone its aggressive military posture, without US military aid.
Israel may boast about its defense industries, but could not possibly make enough ammunition to keep doing what it does year after year. Policies like “mowing the grass” with massive barrages of high cost PGMs lobbed at Iran every year would be impossible for any other nations except China and USA.
If I was a Palestinian I would remind US taxpayers how much they give Israel every year.
Peter Hartcher ( an Australian journalist) comparing Trump to Hitler.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqPsVlNG4hY
How long before Netanyahu ( who is currently undermining the cease fire ) gets a gong.
What is the messaging strategy here? Why would an administration willingly tell such immediately obvious self-evident lies about its own actions? It clearly does not care whether or not its pronouncements are believed – but why doesn’t it care? How does it help its own grip on power to make itself literally unbelievable?
————————————————————–
You lost me at the word “strategy”.
The people around Trump live in an otherworld. Their job depends on them keeping the toddler happy. That means tying themselves in knots to keep an sociopathic, low information, lazy fool popular enough while saying the things he wants them to say (which changes rapidly depending on whatever shiny thing catches his attention) and publicly worshipping his every move.
It should be humiliating but I think they have chased their tails for so long they are dizzy to the reality. Many of them would have been chosen for their lack of any dignity or ethics or shame.
I would have thought that with American Presidents and Vice Presidents about as popular as a fart in a Mini Minor, Vance’s presence in Hungary will drive votes away from Orbán, not towards him.
It appears Orbán’s only options are to call off the elections, rig the election results, or to claim, à la Trump, a win by the Opposition as election cheating and to refuse to accept them.
newy boy
Agreed.
Do, Iran declares victory and Trump has meltdown because CNN puts up Iran victory statement.
frednk,
There once was a convention that any comparison with Hitler was an automatic loss for your argument. I’m struggling to remember the name we had for it.
Team Katich, Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 9:10 am:
Quite. We should all be shaking our heads at the very thought there is any coherent strategy coming out of the Trump White House on any matter at all. Hence my use of the word in that rhetorical question.
And yet, there is a midterm election coming up in 7 months, in which the Republicans will get smashed if it is anything like free and fair. Which makes me wonder: why aren’t enough other Republicans standing up and putting a stop to this President, whose actions are causing so much damage both at home and abroad, including to American power, hard and soft?
Late Riser, Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 9:18 am:
Godwin’s Law.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/how-trump-took-the-us-to-war-with-iran-20260408-p5zm1q.html
The public sector’s share of the Australian economy is already extremely high by global standards: 40%. There is an argument that there you have one of the main drivers for our moribund productivity rates.
Trump is Netanyahu’s punk.
Hardliners are happy with war. It suits them most of the time…. until domestic unrest threatens their hold on power. The problem is that in the US and to a lesser extent in Israel, the leaders there think they are almighty and can win despite evidence suggesting their grip on domestic power is slipping. They have some past experience to back them on this. Netanyahu is a master at deals to form government. Trump has the cult that keeps on giving – getting him over the line or at least close enough to it for the electoral system to do the rest.
Having said that – the ceasefire between Iran and the US is in both their interests and wasnt surprising. Iran was seriously under the pump – their stockpiles were vanishing and their ability to replenish stretched and perhaps domestic control was next. Even Trump could see he was losing public debate on the war – including in his cult. So an agreement for a short break made sense. But where is the incentive for Israel? A missing piece of the puzzle that a competent administration would have considered.
Conventions are conventions. Godwin’s law has no force of law.
The purpose, if any, seems to be to shut down debate.
If Trump is analagous to Hitler then peeps should be able to argue that case.
My view is that, whatever the similarities, there are some key differences.
Hitler liked his dogs, for example.
Israel is neither am ally nor a strategic partner of Australia.
Leroy’s link about Albanese’s trip to Singapore is probably our most important local news today. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-09/prime-minister-anthony-albanese-singapore-fuel-talks/106542828
The story is that a bilateral support agreement is to be signed. We guarantee LNG to Singapore; they guarantee refined diesel and aviation fuel to us.
I’m waiting for Awkward Angus to appear on the ABC this morning with an “Airbus Albo” story after griping about supply for the last three weeks.
Interesting story on the ABC yesterday about grey nomad focussed tourism in Charleville. Van parks and motels have had a flood of cancellations of bookings because people wrongly think there’s a widespread fuel shortage in the bush. I wonder why they think that? Charleville Council now does a daily website update of every local servos’s fuel stocks in an effort to get the message out that there is no shortage.
And yet, there is a midterm election coming up in 7 months, in which the Republicans will get smashed if it is anything like free and fair.
—————————————
There hasnt been a free and fair election in the US in yonks. At the very least, there is regularly a structural advantage to the Republicans.
Dont look at Trumps approval rating (many of those disapproving of his job performance will still vote for him). Look at the generic congressional polling. Some accurate pollsters show this as very close – close enough for a late change and some shenanigans to get them over the line, maybe in both houses.
And the Democrats have a significant unfavorability problem themselves. Leaving them to rely on the antitrump turnout. Again (ffs).
Boerwar, Thursday, April 9, 2026 at 9:28 am:
BW – indeed. Anyway, the actual original ‘law’ Mike Godwin set out is quite different to the bastardisation usually being invoked in online discussions:
“As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law#:~:text=It%20is%20an%20example%20of%20the%20reductio%20ad%20Hitlerum%20fallacy.
Godwin himself actually opposes the common censorious use of the bastardised version of his ‘law’:
Trump went to war with Iran, not based on US intelligence, but primarily on Israel’s… Now he obviously regrets being duped by Netanyahu.
So the ceasefire lasted 24 hours and stumbles over Israel’s refusal to stop bombing the shit out of Lebanon. Of course, Trump defers to Israel. Quelle surprise.