Federal polls: YouGov, Roy Morgan, RedBridge Group (open thread)

Two polls apiece from YouGov and Roy Morgan, plus a big one from RedBridge Group.

The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov has Labor up a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 20%, One Nation down two to 25% and the Greens steady on 13%. Labor holds two-party leads of 55-45 over both the Coalition and One Nation. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 39% and down two on disapproval to 55%, while Angus Taylor improves not inconsiderably with a four-point increase in approval to 38% and a three-point drop in disapproval to 39%. Albanese leads 44-36 on preferred prime minister, out from 43-37. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to this Tuesday from a sample of 1500.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up half a point to 30.5%, the Coalition up one-and-a-half to 24%, One Nation down two to 21.5%, and the Greens down one-and-a-half to 12%. In Labor-versus-Coalition terms, the poll finds Labor leading 56-44 based on previous election and 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences (the latter measure has on average had Labor a point higher since the last election). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1411.

Roy Morgan also had an SMS poll recording an 83-17 split in favour of the government’s decision to cut fuel excise on petrol and diesel, although there was a 64-36 split against the government on satisfaction of its management of the shortage. Respondents were also invited to provide open-ended responses as to who they blamed and why, which you can read about in very great detail in an accompanying report. This poll was conducted March 26 to April 1 from a sample of 2514.

A poll I missed last Thursday was a RedBridge Group/Accent Research “super-poll” of 5563 respondents in the Financial Review. It was slightly dated in having been conducted from March 6 to 19, and did not feature a national headline result, its raison d’etre being breakdowns with significant samples. I will add the results later today from the four largest states and by age, gender, language, housing tenure and past vote to the BludgerTrack poll data archive, and stick here to the bits it’s unable to accommodate. Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group has published a cross-tabulation for generation by financial stress to illustrate the point that stressed older voters are voting One Nation while their younger equivalents are voting Greens, a point he elaborated on in an accompanying analysis piece.

My own favourite cross-tabulation is age-by-gender, which offers a too-rare look at one of the most striking electoral phenomena of our time, namely the pronounced gender gap that has developed among young voters. Among “Gen-Z” men, Labor is on 39%, the Coalition 12%, One Nation 19% and the Greens 24%; among women, Labor is on 26%, the Coalition 14%, One Nation 11% and the Greens 38%. The pattern is reflected in lesser degree among “millennials”, the result for men being Labor 36%, Coalition 16%, One Nation 26% and Greens 13%, and for women Labor 28%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 27% and Greens 15%. For “Gen-X” men, Labor is on 32%, the Coalition 18%, One Nation 35% and the Greens 6%; for women, Labor 29%, the Coalition 21%, One Nation 31% and Greens 9%. Among “baby boomer” men, Labor is on 27%, the Coalition 30%, One Nation 31% and the Greens 4%; among women, Labor 33%, the Coalition 24%, One Nation 32% and the Greens 3%.

The poll also asked four questions of the 491 respondents who said they would vote One Nation. Seventy per cent agreed their choice was a “tactic to make the major parties listen to ordinary Australians”, with only 18% disagreeing. However, 65% felt it “important to elect qualified leaders, even if we don’t always agree with them”, with 14% disagreeing. Fifty-four per cent felt “almost anything is better than the way things are going now, I just want to vote for change”, with 24% disagreeing.

The Australia Institute has an unrelated YouGov poll (hat-tip to Nadia in comments), conducted March 12 to 19 from a sample of 1502, as part of its campaign for a gas exports tax but encompassing voting intention. The result includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know” component, with the rest being Labor 26%, Coalition 19%, One Nation 24% and Greens 12%. The full report features breakdowns by state, age and gender. It also finds 60% agreeing that Australia exports too much gas, with only 10% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,327 thoughts on “Federal polls: YouGov, Roy Morgan, RedBridge Group (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 27
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  1. It’s a strange feeling, going to bed knowing there’s a nonzero chance that WW3 will have started when I wake up.

    America, you have less than 6 hours to remove Trump from office.

  2. DPR on the last thread – cheers for that. I thought there might be some kind of hard-coded rule for the two main territories; I’ll have to look up the stuff about the islands sometime. (Not that Norfolk Island is at any risk of suddenly gaining 60k people, but it’s interesting.)

    The (enrolled) population of the NT was probably below 0.5 quotas for a few decades of its existence, especially before 1984 / 1949 expansion when quotas were larger. I wonder when it went above that mark.

  7. TACO incoming….

    ET33 minutes ago
    Tyler PagerWhite House reporter

    President Trump has been made aware of Pakistan’s request to extend his deadline by two weeks, said Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary. “A response will come,” she said in a statement.

    Shirin Hakim
    April 7, 2026, 3:46 p.m. ET34 minutes ago
    Shirin Hakim

    Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan called on President Trump to extend his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by two weeks, saying diplomatic efforts to end the war are “progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future.” He called on all warring parties to observe a two-week cease-fire to allow for negotiations, in a message on X, and asked Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz during that the same period as a goodwill gesture.

    Pakistan has positioned itself as a key intermediary in the efforts to end the war, facilitating talks and relaying proposals between Iran and the United States.

    NYT

  8. Remember the Liberation Day Trump Tariffs? And how they would bring back manufacturing, increase revenue and correct the balance of trade?

    Perhaps Trump and Lutnick didn’t think this one through either..

    As President Trump’s stiff tariffs on China went into effect, a curious thing happened to the metal containers carrying Chinese goods to the United States.

    The average value of the products in a 20-foot container plunged nearly 40 percent from January 2025 to February 2026, according to data compiled by ImportGenius, a trade data provider. Yet the average value of a container headed to the United States from elsewhere in the world remained relatively flat.

    The reason? Experts say companies most likely began finding ways to reduce the value of the goods they were sending to the United States. Lowering the value of the toys, couches and other products headed for America’s shores meant that companies could also reduce the amount of tariffs they had to pay for those imports.

    Some firms have routed their products through middlemen to take advantage of obscure regulations that can lower a product’s value. In other cases, firms hire Chinese shippers that illegally reduce the value of the import. Because tariffs are charged as a percentage of that value, that, in turn, cuts how much is owed.

    Ryan Petersen, the chief executive of Flexport, a supply chain management company, said that kind of fraud was hard to detect, because the price of goods could be subjective. But it is an easy way to lower a tariff bill. If companies declare that their shipment is worth $50,000 rather than $100,000, “you just cut your tariff bill in half,” he said.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/tariffs-trade-import-fraud.html

  9. This reminds me of the DDP some used to pay to get goods through Customs in places like Indonesia – which the locals termed Pungli… short for Pungutan Liar, or illegal levy. Otherwise known as bribing.

    Katie, who declined to give her last name out of fear of punishment by the Trump administration, said the decision to change how she was importing Chinese materials for her small company in Florida came down to survival.

    She found herself facing a $190,000 tariff bill last year on imports of gifts and stationery made of paper, ceramics, textiles and glass. She said that cost would have crippled her company, which has a staff of six and about $3 million in annual sales.

    Then the Chinese factories that she relied on for goods reached out and offered to handle shipping, tariff payments and delivery to her U.S. warehouse, all for one flat fee. That fee would not change even if Mr. Trump raised or lowered tariffs, as he was prone to do.

    The Chinese factory called the service “DDP,” a term meaning “delivered duty paid.” On one recent shipment of cotton throw pillows, valued at $9,504, the Chinese manufacturer offered a $3,058 flat rate, including tariffs. If Katie had imported the product herself, the total would have been $4,563.

    Katie does not know how much the Chinese factory pays in tariffs, because she does not see the paperwork. She was somewhat concerned about the practice being aboveboard, but she said she was not legally in possession of the products until after they cleared customs.

  10. Sprocket
    According to Trump, now 3 1/2 hours to go, when “A whole civilisation will die tonight”

    Who cares What Pakistan PM says, Iran has suspended all indirect contacts and negotiations indefinitely
    Read yesterday late night posts.

  12. What is difference between “River to sea” death threat by Terrorist organisations and Israel government in ME and “A whole civilisation will die tonight” threat?
    Nothing.
    But Trump is saying that he will wipe out a civilisation on Tuesday night 8 pm NYT, which is imminent. Trump has become Terrorist-in-Chief

  13. Hegseth said:
    “No stupid rules of engagement”
    “No more woke wars”
    “We negotiate with bombs”
    Trump said
    “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”

    My BP has gone up. Couldn’t sleep yesterday night properly.
    I hate Trump and Hegseth

  15. World News & Politics Patrol:

    Pakistan proposes 2-week Iran ceasefire ahead of Trump deadline: https://www.axios.com/2026/04/07/iran-us-ceasefire-pakistan-two-weeks

    Australia in Energy Security Deal With China, as War Rages in Iran: https://www.asiafinancial.com/australia-in-energy-security-deal-with-china-as-war-rages-in-iran

    Iran cuts all diplomatic channels with US ahead of Trump’s Strait of Hormuz deadline: https://www.firstpost.com/world/iran-cuts-all-diplomatic-channels-with-us-ahead-of-trumps-strait-of-hormuz-deadline-13997645.html

    Pope Leo calls Trump’s threat against Iran ‘truly unacceptable’: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pope-leo-calls-trumps-threat-against-iran-truly-unacceptable-2026-04-07/

    Trump says ‘a whole civilization will die tonight’ if Iran does not make a deal: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-a-whole-civilization-will-die-tonight-if-iran-does-not-make-deal-2026-04-07/

    US and Israel hit Iran’s Kharg oil hub and key infrastructure, including bridges and missile sites; Iran warned it could target regional energy assets, while reports described casualties, power outages and expanding attacks across multiple cities: https://www.ynetnews.com/article/ol076ejw1

    “Putin’s mouse”: leaked phone call reveals lengths Orbán was willing to go to help Russia: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/04/07/8029092/

    China and Russia veto UN resolution on protecting Hormuz shipping: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-vetoes-un-resolution-protecting-hormuz-shipping-2026-04-07/

    Starmer risks Trump’s wrath as PM ‘refuses to let US use UK bases’ for strikes on Iran’s infrastructure: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/iran-war-starmer-trump-uk-bases-raf-fairford-diego-garcia-b2952977.html

    JD Vance Learns in Real Time Trump Left Him Out of Iran Attack Plans: https://newrepublic.com/post/208724/jd-vance-donald-trump-iran-attack

    Retired Army general says US may need ‘Nuremberg’ like trials for Trump’s ‘illegal orders’ in Iran war: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-iran-nuremberg-trials-b2953171.html

    Majority want Congress to impeach Trump now: https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/survey-majority-want-congress-to-impeach-trump-now/

    Republicans Call for Trump Impeachment After Wild Iran Death Threat: https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-call-for-trump-impeachment-after-wild-iran-death-threat/

    DeSantis signs Florida law to label groups as terrorists and expel student supporters: https://apnews.com/article/desantis-florida-terrorist-groups-free-speech-0b5dfb47052a17168919a3ce3c80dead

    US soldier trying to halt wife’s deportation after she was detained on Louisiana military base: https://apnews.com/article/ice-immigration-military-spouse-deport-59ce5951fb284f95b836d0b07d6b0718

    Wireless festival cancelled after Kanye West banned from entering UK: https://www.theguardian.com/music/2026/apr/07/home-office-bans-kanye-west-from-entering-uk-wireless-festival

    Vatican aid convoy to southern Lebanese town forced back by bombardment: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/vatican-aid-convoy-southern-lebanese-town-forced-back-by-bombardment-2026-04-07/

  17. Will US Military follow Trump orders of illegal destruction of ‘whole civilisation’?
    If US military does that, the are no different to IDF.

  18. Labor has dropped references to its 82 per cent renewables target in a preliminary draft of the ­national policy platform it will take to the next election due in 2028, but is vowing to use wind and solar power to bring down electricity prices and reindustrialise Australia while blaming coal for grid unreliability.
    Labor sources are playing down the omission of its goal of 82 per cent by 2030 in the draft, declaring the party remained committed to the target and it was covered in a broader reference to “ambitious and achievable 2030 and 2035 targets”.
    An initial draft of Labor’s ­platform would tie a third-term Albanese government to “urgently” grow the manufacturing base by addressing high energy prices and “poor-quality trade agreements”, while backing Australia as a potential producer of electric cars. “Australia urgently needs a strong, growing and diverse manufacturing industry to tackle supply chain interruptions,” says the preliminary draft platform. “Labor will work to create a ­future for Australia’s industrial capacity in strategically important areas.”
    The draft platform hardens Labor’s language towards China compared with what was taken to the last election, while there was more emphasis placed on the ­importance of Australia’s role as a middle power.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/renewable-target-missing-from-alp-draft-national-platform/news-story/c88b0ce87b343972825172d28ee6ddc4?amp

  19. Politico: A senior Gulf official said that their country had “no idea” what Trump was thinking.
    “It could be a tactic to try to get Iran to accept what is on the table, the deal that Pakistan has brought to them. But we don’t have any visibility into the plan, if there is a plan,” the person said.

  20. Max Chandler-Mather has been resurrected… and the Greens certainly could benefit from some fresh policies.

    Greens firebrand Max Chandler-Mather is promising to recharge left-wing politics in Australia, taking the reins of the party’s think tank with the mission of building a populist movement that can replace Labor and rival a surging One Nation.
    ………
    He will relaunch the Greens Institute as its new executive director on Wednesday – the policy think tank that is the minor party’s answer to the Labor Party’s Chifley Research Centre or the Liberal-aligned Menzies Research Centre, which help inform party policy ideas.

    It will have two priorities. The first is to “dismantle key pillars of neoliberalism”, which he describes as the privatisation of key services and industries that have turned aged care and childcare over to profit-driven providers.

    The second is to lay out a “transformative vision of 21st century progressive economic populism” which is likely to focus on centralised public services, more public housing and a shorter working week.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/max-chandler-mather-is-back-to-lead-a-greens-think-tank-can-he-fire-up-a-left-wing-movement-20260407-p5zlw8.html

  21. Senate Republicans@SenateGOP
    ·
    5h
    Iran would be wise to take President Trump at his word.

    They can choose the easy way or the hard way.

    No help there then.

  22. Confessionssays:
    Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 7:12 am
    Senate Republicans@SenateGOP
    ·
    5h
    Iran would be wise to take President Trump at his word.

    They can choose the easy way or the hard way.

    No help there then.

    Senate Republicans “They can choose the easy way or the hard way.”

    Do what Senate Republicans are saying is that they agree with Trump’s
    “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”
    threat.
    LET THAT SINK IN.

  27. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 7:03 am

    Labor has dropped references to its 82 per cent renewables target in a preliminary draft of the ­national policy platform it will take to the next election due in 2028, but is vowing to use wind and solar power to bring down electricity prices and reindustrialise Australia while blaming coal for grid unreliability.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/renewable-target-missing-from-alp-draft-national-platform/news-story/c88b0ce87b343972825172d28ee6ddc4?amp or https://archive.is/7UGPN
    _______________

    Thanks, Hh.

    I’m sure most people don’t need me to tell them that the Oz is more interested in pushing their own agenda than reporting truthfully. For example, at the end of the first paragraph:

    … blaming coal for grid unreliability

    When you read further down, it says:

    Labor acknowledges that ­ageing, unreliable coal-fired power stations are driving up ­prices every time they break down, and that Australia’s fleet of coal power stations is becoming more unreliable and increasingly costly to operate

    There is quite a difference between a subset of generators becoming more unreliable and a whole grid being unreliable. The latter is something the Murdoch media have pushing for years (they blame it on renewables) even though we have one of the most reliable grids in the world.

    Meanwhile, there is a new April record for (1/2 hourly) renewable penetration: 72.3% (up 1.0%).
    https://www.aemo.com.au/Energy-systems/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-NEM/Data-Dashboard-NEM

  28. Is it the end of the world as we know it? Or will Trump TACO again?

    I don’t see any way there isn’t massive fallout across the region and around the world if Trump follows through

    Closer to home, Gen Z females are obviously the smartest cohort of all, we should learn from them imo

    Interesting that 2 people from the opposite side of the political spectrum are calling for the end of neoliberalism today, Max from the left and Matt Canavan at the NPC from the right

    Chris Bowen on AM earlier re looking for oil in Queensland, it has to stack up economically and in terms of engineering. I think you missed an E dude

  29. e.g.w. says:
    Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 10:13 pm

    Entropysays:
    Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 9:18 pm
    “These days they are somewhere to the right of the Fraser coalition government.”

    Frasers coalition Government got rid of universal health cover. Not even the LNP would try and do that today (not openly anyway).
    =========================================================
    Agreed, but a party’s position on the left/right continuum is not determined by a single arbitrarily selected policy.
    Have a look at Labor’s position on:
    Attack on Iran;
    New coal mines and gas fields;
    Gambling advertising;
    Minimal taxation of multinationals and resource companies;
    Lickspittle to USA (if not Trump personally);
    Support for genocidal Israel;
    Making sure the NACC is toothless and ineffective;
    No real protections for whistle blowers;
    More restrictions on right to information (reduced transparency);
    Attacks on civil liberties and personal freedoms;
    AUKUS (FFS);
    Massive uncontrolled immigration.
    These are just a few off the top of my head and Labor are pursuing a hard right wing agenda on all of them!

    e.g.w is another Greens ideologist who does understand how to bring a nation along with progressive reforms.

    Here are some massive left wing agenda items being delivered by Labor right now:

    systemic actions to decarbonize the economy
    NDIS is a massively left wing reform.
    closing the gender pay gap
    2000 indigenous rangers looking after tens of millions of hectares of land
    aged care reform to support the aged betterer

    appointing women to all senior positions

    biggest housing investment in federal government history

    huge improvements in paid parental leave

    huge increases in childcare support

    Support for working from home flexibility

    massive investments in mass transit

    compulsory super

    half the party room women

    bulk billing

    hundreds of free clinics, including specialist clinics for endometriosis

    dirt cheap medicines

    national strategy against domestic violence, plus huge funding therefore

    free schooling to the end of secondary, equalization of payments to public and private school, cut in HECs debts

    intense support for rising real wages, particularly the basic wage
    and so on and so forth

    What e.g.w is really doing is explaining why the Greens are stuck in their low teens. Adults do complexity. They can walk and chew gum. Kiddies like e.g.w and Hanson can do cheap ideological populism. But most aussie voters will never trust either of them to do anything useful.

    BTW, I see that Max the Mouth Almighty has been put in charge of their CFMEU Groupthink Tank and NIMBY opposition to housing developments for the Greens. I do hope he gets his teeth into the Greens insane Lack of National Security and Defence policies – surely the most idiotic policies should come first.

    As for Max being the Greens’ (self-professed) answer to Pauline, pass me a couple of barf bags, one for each of them.

  30. Hard Being Green says:
    Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 7:34 am

    Is it the end of the world as we know it? Or will Trump TACO again?
    …

    Trump, Netanyahu and Khamenei II have already altered the world as we know it. Putin and Xi took the lead. The Three Nasties are pushing it to its logical conclusion.

    Regardless of whether Trump destroys what little is left of the Iranian economy it is becoming increasingly likely that the world is headed for mass famine, if not quite yet mass starvation.

  31. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 7:07 am

    Also from the article: “The Greens’ new leader, Larissa Waters, came into the role after Bandt’s shock defeat by promising a consultative and constructive approach. This has helped Labor pass key legislation such as its Environment Protection Authority and superannuation tax changes.
    Chandler-Mather said the party was not going to achieve change by negotiating with Labor. “Change is only going to happen when we replace those establishment parties,” he said. “We need to be an alternative.””

    Forget progress. This is about gaining power. Into the bin!

  32. A few days for rationing not months….

    https://www.9news.com.au/national/fuel-crisis-experts-send-dire-warning-as-anthony-albanese-travels-to-singapore-to-lock-in-supplies/29c41546-eb81-46f0-b379-e16a9473fef1

    Albo and mr 37% need to tell the real story on labors fuel stuff up no wonder he’s running to Singapore on his Airbus as labor is out of fuel.
    Meanwhile Trump buys more time for his military and trash talking a terrorist regime is good!
    Dem pope and UN defending terrorists as usual.
    This generation needs to sacrifice to get rid of Iran regime.
    Vance is all in.
    Irans head clown is unconscious in a hospital.
    Winning!

  34. Griff @ #31 Wednesday, April 8th, 2026 – 7:50 am

    sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 7:07 am
    “Change is only going to happen when we replace those establishment parties,” he said. “We need to be an alternative.””

    Forget progress. This is about gaining power. Into the bin!

    Some of these clowns don’t like going quietly do they.

  35. Orban, the Mouse that Roared!

    “Viktor Orbán told Putin ‘I am at your service’ in October phone call:
    Transcript reportedly details Hungarian leader offering whatever assistance he can to his Russian counterpart”
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/07/viktor-orban-told-putin-i-am-at-your-service-in-october-phonecall

    On Tuesday, Bloomberg News said it had obtained a Hungarian government transcript of a call that took place between Orbán and Putin on 17 October, in which Orbán reportedly compared the relationship to that of a “mouse” standing ready to help the Russian “lion” as needed.

    “Yesterday our friendship rose to such a high level that I can help in any way,” Orbán reportedly told Putin in the call. “In any matter where I can be of assistance, I am at your service.”

    In an attempt to emphasise his point, Orbán was said to have made reference to one of Aesop’s fables in which a mouse who was earlier shown mercy by a lion goes on to free the same lion when it is netted by hunters. The remark drew a laugh from Putin, the transcript suggested.

    Not a great look for a purported ‘Hungarian nationalist’.

  36. sprocket_says:
    Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 7:07 am

    He will relaunch the Greens Institute as its new executive director on Wednesday – the policy think tank that is the minor party’s answer to the Labor Party’s Chifley Research Centre or the Liberal-aligned Menzies Research Centre, which help inform party policy ideas.

    _____________________

    So Max can’t find a real job and has to engineer a back office party role for himself…

    Anyway, all this is an incredibly bad idea, for a couple of reasons:

    – it adds to an already crowded think tank market. The Chifley and Menzies institutes are already largely unknown and not particularly influential so it risk essentially an exercise as screaming into the void (plus “Greens” institute is not particularly subtle).

    – it puts the Australia Institute in an awkward position, being made up of ex Green’s staffers already they may find themselves intellectually insufficiently “pure” and loose a bit of steam with Greens parliamentary.

    – it risks the unofficial non-aggression pact between the Teals and Greens, noting the teals are the party of “yes, $500 per hour basket weaving therapy is totally legitimate” – it’s the movement of publically funding private practice, and Monique Ryan may have a thing to say about her friends being press-gang’ed like Max wants.

    – “Smash neoliberalism” is an incredibly crowded market also, with Labor running towards state run re-industrialization, Andrew Hastie and the LNP trending that way rhetorically and One Nation broadly industrially nationalistic . It also suggests he can only define himself by what he proposes, something that typically means you’ve already lost the battle (and there is no more ill-defined term like “neoliberalism”).

    – finally, making it ex-polititican run is insufficient plausible deniability. The ACF really fucked itself over hiring Adam Bandt because now anything that organisations says can be legitimately dismissed as partisan talking points. Hence why you have these things run by staffers, not ex-pollies.

    The classic parallel example is Chris Pine’s Blueprint institute, which very quickly fell of the radar as a “think tank” and I believe is now just another government relations consultant.

  37. One US Senator said on TV that Iran is cancer. He did not say Iran regime is cancer.
    Again I repeat Trump that entire civilisation will die tonight (US time)

  38. US military Chief of Staff General Cain is brought from cold (from retirement) superseding many other Generals.
    The country that has most Generals is US.

  39. Canavan’s plan to win back the uneducated is to bag economists they have never heard of:

    “Most of our leaders grew up in the era of the Reagan-Thatcher revolution. Like ageing hippies, they desperately want to return to the elixir of their youth by performing one more economic Woodstock,” he will say.

    “But our times have changed. A microwaved Milton Friedman is not going to solve our economic woes – and it is certainly not going to calm the rightful rage of the Australian people at their political leaders’ incompetence in trashing the promise of the luckiest country in the world.”

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/canavan-declares-war-on-the-liberal-party-s-economic-orthodoxy-20260407-p5zluv or https://archive.is/TEivd

  40. I see that NSW is the state on BludgerTrack that most closely reflects the National one. As goes NSW, so goes the country at the moment, it seems.

  41. Whether Trump goes ahead with his threat to wipe out a civilisation from the face of the earth, the real losers are people like Pauline Hanson, Barnaby Joyce, Bernardi, PP, JJ, NN, Timmy and Alabama, either way.

    BTW, a lot of people say The Irian people are the biggest losers if they are wiped out. Yes, that is true.

  42. B-52 bombers heading to Iran as Trump’s deadline nears end? Viral video sparks buzz
    Multiple B-52 aircraft were seen departing from RAF Fairford, with others reportedly fueled and positioned on the tarmac before takeoff. The first bomber is believed to have left around three hours ago, according to flight tracking and defense-linked reports.

    https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/us-b-52-bombers-heading-to-iran-as-trumps-deadline-nears-end-viral-video-sparks-buzz-2893009-2026-04-08

  43. Hoping we see another taco today but it feels like he won’t back down, well not fully, this time. Any attack needs to be roundly condemned by world leaders, including ours

    Off to work, enjoy your day

  44. Re the US being the “Evil Empire”: it’s also hard not to see the US and Russia as the new Axis of Evil, with players like Netanyahu’s Israel and Orban’s Hungary as axial satellites.

    It would be nice if Australia could align itself with other “Rule of Law” nations on a different and more powerful axis.

    Anyway, I’ll try and do some gardening before the end of civilisation deadline.

    Interesting word – deadline. The media say it refers to the days of print media when there was a last moment after which the type could not be reset. But that refutes the old cliche of “Stop the presses!”. There was never a true deadline in the print room. Papers could be – and were – pulped after printing if necessary.

    An American academic on NPR says the word seems to emerge during the American Civil War from the Confederate Andersonville military prison, where it was used to designate a line, either actually drawn or simply understood, beyond which if prisoners stepped, they would be shot to death. So really a deathline.

    That seems apt.

    https://www.npr.org/2025/08/09/nx-s1-5494593/what-is-the-origin-of-the-word-deadline-an-exploration-of-its-etymology

  45. An assessment of Russia’s stalled invasion by David Petraeus:

    “Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin ‘no longer has upper hand’ in war, says ex-CIA chief:
    Ukrainian forces are stopping the Russians cold on the front lines, says ex-CIA chief”
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-putin-zelensky-truce-oil-refinery-live-b2945082.html

    Vladimir Putin’s forces have lost the upper hand on the frontline of the Ukraine war, ex-CIA director David Petraeus has said.

    “I think what’s remarkable is that Russia no longer has the upper hand,” Petraeus said in an interview with CBS News.

    “Russia heavily outnumbers Ukraine. It outguns Ukraine. It has an economy 10 or 12 times the size of Ukraine’s. And yet the Ukrainian forces right now are stopping the Russians cold on the front lines,” he said.

    Imagine what Ukrainian forces could have achieved by now if the Trump administration hadn’t cut all US military support to them since January 2025. Or if the EU had unlocked the $230b USD + in frozen Russian assets and given it to Ukraine.

  46. Neo-Luddism or fair criticism?

    ‘The gulf between actual AI performance and AI hype is deep and cavernous, and we have the data to prove it. A recent MIT report found that 95% of AI pilots didn’t increase a company’s profit or productivity. A recent METR report also found that AI coding tools actually slow developers down. Why? Well, generative AI models, even the very latest ones, often get things wrong and “hallucinate”, which requires considerable human oversight to correct. IT consultants Gartner attempted to quantify this and found that AI agents fail to complete office tasks around 70% of the time. Simply put, the amount of human oversight necessary, even for simple tasks, almost always undermines whatever productivity gains are made. In other words, in the vast majority of cases, it is more productive not to use AI than to use AI. Yet despite all the evidence, AI is still being shoehorned in everywhere and being praised as the next industrial revolution. Or is it? Because there is also mounting data that the world is beginning to turn its back on this questionable technology.’

    https://wlockett.medium.com/ai-pullback-has-officially-started-fb6dfa5e4128

  47. The Commonwealth DPP may have to issue a serious warning given all sides are going full throttle on BRS.

    They may need to move any trial to Darwin, Hobart, Norfolk Island or….. Canberra.

  48. Luigi Smith, Wednesday, April 8, 2026 at 8:34 am:

    Re the US being the “Evil Empire”: it’s also hard not to see the US and Russia as the new Axis of Evil, with players like Netanyahu’s Israel and Orban’s Hungary as axial satellites.

    It would be nice if Australia could align itself with other “Rule of Law” nations on a different and more powerful axis.

    I fully agree, LS. Fortunately, polls seem to indicate that Hungarian voters will themselves take care of that ‘axial satellite’ which you mention on Sunday. Fingers crossed! With some further luck, the US Congress might also take care of the Western end of the main Axis as well, but this seems much less likely.

  50. I find it pretty disturbing that Gina Rinehart and Pauline Hanson would question efforts to have an alleged war criminal face a trial.

    In effect it is giving the greenlight to war crimes, which is extreme and outrageous.

    Both should be condemned for such views.

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