The Australian has published the quarterly Newspoll aggregate for January to March, providing breakdowns from substantial samples for at least the larger of the mainland states along with various demographic categories (UPDATE: Full tables here). The national One Nation vote over this period was 25% compared with 14% for the previous quarter, so naturally there are radical movements across the board. Labor’s national vote was 32% across the quarter, with the Coalition running third on 20%.
The most striking result is that One Nation leads on the primary vote in Queensland with 30%, compared with 27% for Labor and 23% for the Coalition, which is consistent with what the BludgerTrack breakdown for Queensland was already showing. One Nation’s gains come about equally at the expense of Labor and the Coalition in the three largest states, but more so at the Coalition’s expense in Western Australia and South Australia, the small-sample result in the latter case reducing the Coalition to 13%.
Breakdowns by age show Labor dropping by between four and seven points among each of the three cohorts with the exception of 65-plus, where they have only dropped a point, with the result that Labor’s vote share ranges only from 30% to 33% across the four. Conversely, the drop in Coalition support ranges only from five to seven points, leaving intact a clear progression from 14% among 18-to-34 to 26% among 65-plus. One Nation is at 27% or 28% among all cohorts except 18-to-34, where it records 19%. The Greens have been hardly touched by the convulsion, maintaining their characteristic pattern of 26% support among 18-to-34 to 3% among 65-plus.
The only significant gender gap remains higher support for the Greens among women than men, at 14% and 10% respectively, balanced by 30% and 34% support for Labor rather than a distinction between left and right. Support for One Nation is remarkably even across the four income cohorts, ranging only from 23% among those on $150,000 or more to 29% among those on $50,000 or less. One Nation even records 19% among non-English speakers, as compared with 29% who speak only English at home. The party leads among Christians with 31%, compared with 28% for Labor and 24% for the Coalition.
And supposedly from the most powerful leader in the world
I generally think the reporting by the Courier Mail is misleading and biased. One Nation is strongest in the regions. That’s where most of the LNP seats in Queensland are based. Yes, One Nation may get strong support in Labor seats of Blair and Forde. But to not acknowledge the elephant in the room, that One Nation polls the strongest in LNP heartland of Rural and Regional Queensland is certainly a deliberate attempt to put the Murdoch spin on it. They make a vague mention of the coalition facing pressure later in the article, but it’s still pretty piss weak.
“The rise of the right-wing party could have significant consequences in Queensland, where Labor captured 12 of the state’s 30 federal seats at the last election, including several previously held by the LNP.
On current polling trends, a number of those gains would be at risk at the next election, with electorates such as Dickson, Petrie, Bonner, Forde and Leichhardt potentially vulnerable.
Other seats including Blair, which covers Ipswich and surrounding regional areas, are also expected to become key targets for One Nation as the party attempts to translate its growing vote share into parliamentary representation.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/queensland-voters-abandon-major-parties-as-one-nation-takes-shock-poll-lead/news-story/0bcb2830bbf263d3b18ca83893f97379
Do you have a stockpile of Brut from the ’80s in your bunker, pp?
SL says:
“Australia’s diesel stocks have increased every year that the Albo govt has been in power. In 2022 they were 1799.9ML, this year they are 2406.9ML
This was possible because they built new storage.”
———————-
I’ll guess that this project will get another guernsey in the May budget.
Q-Anon…whee…
https://x.com/PokerPolitics/status/2040465554910179395
It’s said that during Ronald Reagan’s second term, as dementia took hold, Nancy stepped up and effectively became the executive authority for the administration. Fortuitously, a robust bureaucracy kept the country functioning. Ronald’s favourite job became scooping leaves out of the swimming pool and the Secret Service kept the pool full of leaves to keep the Pres happy.
Sadly, there is no fallback – of either a supportive spouse or a robust bureaucracy – to keep the demented Donald Trump in check as he deteriorates.
And the world suffers the consequences.
Re Socrates @8:46.
Israel was never our ally except by association – “the ally of my ally is my ally”. They certainly don’t spend much time thinking about Australia. There’s no particular reason why they should, of course. They focus on their own interests and matters closer to home.
We have traditionally regarded Israel as a friend, although that’s becoming much harder lately.
Our diesel storage capacity has increased by almost 50% in the last four years due to the Boosting Australia’s Diesel Storage Program (BADSP). It’s a pretty safe bet that this program, or something similar will be renewed soon. Ideally, this would be done with a view to transitioning to biodiesel and fueling gas-fired power generators (GPGs).
The graph below is a forecast of the gas required by the southern states (NSW, Vic, SA and Tas):
https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/gas/gas-forecasting-and-planning/gas-statement-of-opportunities-gsoo
There’s a lot of uncertainty associated with the exact quantities of gas required as it depends on the weather, changes in demand due to electrification and changes in supply as new generators enter and old ones exit.
Regardless of the uncertainty, what the graph illustrates is that despite significant investments in new supply, storage and pipeline infrastructure to increase the flows southward from Qld along the South West Qld Pipeline (SWQP), there is not going to be enough gas to meet peak demand from 2029 onwards.
The peaks shown above only occur for a couple of hours on a handful of days each year. Basically, on the coldest of evenings when people are cranking up their heaters and electricity supplies are short because of still conditions and coal generators not being available.
There are some small diesel generators in the southern states that are called upon when supply is tight, the operative word being small. They are not used often because they are expensive and often polluting (like trucks).
However, some GPGs can run on diesel and those that currently can’t, can be modified to do so. In order to do this, and raze those peaks in the graph above, they will need access to large quantities of diesel. Thus, if extra diesel storages are to be built, they should be located with GPGs. That way, in addition to increasing our diesel transport resilience we reduce the need for investment in new gas supplies, storage and pipeline infrastructure – the costs of which are passed onto consumers.
Kronomex says:
” Q-Anon…whee… https://x.com/PokerPolitics/status/2040465554910179395”
————————
I see that a person named Poker and Politics posted that stuff on X. I think our very own pp has a nom de plume.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-election-before-the-election-how-nepean-could-shape-the-state-20260323-p5rptu.html
archive version (no paywall): https://archive.is/QXO5j
Voters in the Mornington Peninsula state seat of Nepean are preparing for their first of two visits to the polls in seven months, in what looms as a complicated three-way by-election race. (2 May is the date)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-06/vic-moira-deeming-wins-preselection/106534018
Victorian Liberal MP Moira Deeming has secured top spot on the party’s upper-house ticket for the Western Metropolitan Region after a chaotic preselection battle.
Mrs Deeming secured preselection after the other candidates withdrew from the running.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/06-04-2026/every-political-party-is-in-opposition-now
Incumbency, once one of the greatest advantages in politics, is now a curse. A hot potato no one wants to handle. New Zealand’s last election was defined by voters blaming the incumbent government for high cost of living caused by global trends, and its next election will likely be defined by voters blaming a different incumbent government for high cost of living caused by global trends.
This is a major risk for New Zealand’s political parties, many of whom are incumbents or who are at risk of becoming incumbents soon. So, in a cunning tactical move, every one of them has pivoted to being in opposition.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/theres-another-big-reason-trump-is-stuck-in-the-gulf
There’s Another Big Reason Trump Is Stuck in the Gulf
Mohammad bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, is telling Trump he can’t stop now. He has to finish the Iranian regime off.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-06/iran-strait-of-hormuz-maritime-tollbooths/106532804
No doubt this has already been discussed by early risers, but if, as Kohler suggests, we’re entering a world of tolled shipping lanes and consequently free passage for shipping is dead, then what happens to the contested waters of the South China Sea? Australia has been involved in that place before.
They were posted here several weeks and there was discussion of the policies. Gina would be ecstatic to get them. Ditto some other miners and some of the overseas investors in our corporate ag sector.
The rest of Australia would be ratfucked.
Ven says:
Monday, April 6, 2026 at 9:10 am
Could it be Donnie was trying to channel Roy Cohn and got the Beetrooter instead?
Luigi Smith:
Poker and Politics digs through the Q-Anon sphere and posts the more, frankly, crazed lunacy on Lowdown (and I expect other sites). Could you see our PP wouldn’t doing anything like that?
https://tonyortega.org/lowdown/
Will Pauline’s Bestie, Demented Donny, push the button? He would be sorely tempted. His manic disinhibition if growing by the day.
The Greens Plan to have NO NAVY at all would be just the ticket, eh, Peg?
The Greens have a plan for Australia’s defence: destroy it.
LR
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-06/iran-strait-of-hormuz-maritime-tollbooths/106532804
I agree it is not in Australia’s interest for those treaties to be ignored. The trouble is that the USA under Trump itself withdrew from UNCLOS earlier this year.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2026/01/07/donald-trump-united-nations-treaties-clmate-change-treaty/88073225007/
The USA no longer recognises most of the “rules based order”.
So Iran figures “why not”?
sprocket_ @6:55
https://www.wsj.com/business/a-startup-is-supplying-drones-to-high-schools-to-stop-mass-shootings-a7800ade?mod=mhp
Ugh. Always treating the symptoms and blind to the disease. And hackers exist. Some hackers are children. Some hackers are angry. Can you imagine where a school principal would allow these machines to patrol their school because that’s the safer option? It’s just nuts. The only bit they got right is that it’s revolutionary.
Re Political Nightwatchman @9:11
Nothing in a NewsCorp publication is credible on its own, at least nothing with political or economic implications. Maybe the Sports section is OK, I wouldn’t know.
But news content requires corroboration from more trustworthy outlets, or at least from a variety of non-Murdoch sources, before being accepted. Everything that has political implications is selected or ignored, and if selected, spun via headlines, emphasis and loaded words, to support a corporate political agenda. NewsCorp outlets may claim balance, but facts and commentary that do not support the agenda, if reported at all, are invariably found towards the end of the article, which many / most readers won’t see.
I read that article. It reminded me of W. Somerset Maugham’s observation that while Britain countered the German invasion of France with armies, tanks and bombers, the French met them with companies of philosophers and artists.
Those are not the words of a man in full possession of his faculties.
————————————
Steady on, this is an artist at work getting a deal.
I bang on about it. So why not more? This is the same Trump. This is what people voted for. Yes, less inhibited – but that’s what you get when you give someone total power and fealty and surround him with toadies – and anyone with eyes open and a brain could see how he would behave as Potus. This is a feature of the Trump program, not a symptom of a medical condition.
I don’t discount some level of dementia. But his behaviour is easily explained without it.
At a point in history where our social/government/press offerings are awash with foul language it is amusing to see outlets such as the BBC, ABC, Financial Times and others are like blushing debutants when they use, as an introduction to Trump’s latest outburst, the lead in ….”In an expletive ladened/filled (and similar)….” to relate the item.
Obviously, PB and its contributors are made sterner stuff – able to both read and repeat – such offerings as they are reported to have been said by Trump.
Strange, strange world we live in Master Jack
You can open a pdf of the Newspoll quarterly summary table from this link, no paywall. Lots of detail.
https://origin.theaustralian.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/newspoll5april2026.pdf
The french suffered five times as many military deaths as did Australia in World War 2.
The french were bled white during World War 1 and never fully recovered.
In terms of military preparation the heavy involvement of far left parties in attempts at demilitarization during the inter war period (see today’s Greens) led to an army that was ill prepared.
Not sure ON is taking votes equally from both Parties in the bigger states. Labor is down all of 2% since the election and it won’t be in the seats that count generally. Very odd seat here and there maybe but nothing at affects anything. Labor’s vote in Qld in down 4%, bet that’s mostly rural, LNP 14%. Not so equal.
As for ON ahead in Qld, well know me down with a feather. That is generally LNP heartland as it mostly rural. If ON cannibalise the LNP vote there, of course they’ll jump over Labor. Media make it out as something sensational.
Jacob P.
You are one of few that have come here to actually suggest that ON has policies – which is a good sign. On the other hand merely to say ON has policies and it is only a matter of reading them to see their virtue or otherwise.
Your example …along the lines of ON being counter to “importing masses of foreigners” is a good place to start. The criticism looks so valid in the sweep of this statement yet, as more detailed information shows, the average level of immigration is not much higher than it has been for at least a decade.
The conclusion that immigration (‘obviously’) “drives up competition for houses” is facile – there being many other factors – some dating back to Covid – which helps explain the tight housing situation.
Question is, will that ON vote translate into seats. Didn’t in SA. They have their cult but most of the rest of the country can’t stand them so they get a soft preference flow.
There are some very big false assumptions being touted by those who argue that Australia does not need a defence force because no-one will invade it.
1. That the ONLY possible military scenario that affects Australian national interests is a full scale country-to-country invasion.
2. That the lack of a credible defence force has zero material impact on what happens in peace time in the region.
3. That a practical defence force can just be switched on and off, as needed. A realistic lead time to build an effective national defence force (and associated economic infrastructure) would be at least a quarter of a century. IMO, given the extremely rapid pace of events, and given the massive impacts of climate change, we are simply not in a position to predict what our defence needs will be in 2050.
such offerings as they are reported to have been said by Trump
————————————
This. I mentioned it yesterday. The media shouldn’t simplify anything posted from a Trump account as ‘Trump says….’. Especially in light of the occasional downtimes we have been seeing and the need by an over proud Trunp and over sensitive administration to counter suggestions he may be undergoing medical treatment – even for things benign.
What?
Is Trump sick?
I do hope Pauline and Jacob send him a get well soon card.
Socrates @ #67 Monday, April 6th, 2026 – 9:47 am
True. I was actually thinking, so China figures “why not”? Territorial limits will expand/contract to become whatever you can defend.
One of Zeihan’s more interesting predictions a couple of years ago was that world trade would be increasingly constrained by local and regional constraints on shipping.
His general point was that the US had guaranteed global freedom of shipping post WW2 but that it no longer had either the means or the national will to keep doing it.
I can’t remember if he coupled the above observations with the development of missiles and drones and the increasing threat of land-based weapons to navies more generally.
I’ve seen people mention blocking contributors here before. How might that be done?
BW, Socrates: The genie has escaped.
And the rules based order was always an Amercian fiction because they didn’t like any laws that applied to them, so the rules based order is just the bits of international law that the US choosed to impose on others, even when it didn’t apply to the US.
China routinely ignores anything like a global order. It is ignoring Philippines sovereign rights as we post. There is nothing new in this pattern of China’s behavour.
Taiwan survives not because China is delicately observing some rules. It is because China is not yet satisfied with the risk/reward calculus of taking Taiwan by force. The principle is in place. The exact implementation plan is uncertain.
‘Might is right’ is far from new. 100% of successful submarine commanders in World War 2 were war criminals.
When Hegseth ostentatiously threw out the US ROE he was effectively inviting Iran and its proxies to do their worst. Consistent with Hegseth’s approach, Iran would have been within its rights to murder any captured US service personnel.
Scruffy @ #81 Monday, April 6th, 2026 – 10:25 am
You’re probably out of luck. I use C+ (aka “PB Comments Plugin”.), which has a blocking feature. But it hasn’t been available in the Google Store for some time.
Late Riser
Yep. I know that analogies are usually fairly useless but my considerable degree of personal dread arises from a sort of personal apprehension that we are experiencing elements of the zeitgeist of the 1930’s.
BW. Most days I can think about other things, but I feel it too.
Pegasus @ #43 Monday, April 6th, 2026 – 8:43 am
Deeming! What can you say, but what a party.
The situation with Iran stymying Donnie at every turn (plus most of the rest of the world basically giving him the two finger salute) is starting to crack the manly man tough guy shield he’s surrounded himself with all his life to protect his fragile glass ego. Weakness more than anything is terrifying to him and so he uses anger and rage to try and buttress the shielding surrounding his inner cringing little Trump.
My escape is the bush. I do a lot of environmental weeding, planting and recording. I usually take a cuppa and a home-baked bikkie with me. Smoko sitting on a log in the bush after a hard morning’s weeding is wonderful.
@Late Riser
Bugger. Thank you though.
K
The personal risk is narcissistic collapse. The global risk is what he might do to avoid it.
Reagan trusted people around him. Trump doesn’t trust anyone.
He demands 100% submission but if you do that, he doesn’t respect you. It is the Trump paradox.
We’re not in the bush, but there’s a satisfaction when bones hurt and you’re smiling because of it, at peace, and alone in the moment.
Socrates.
This is standard ouroboros leftist ‘thinking’.
“Likewise on immigration and the housing crisis. I am a civil engineer. There is a shortage of qualified tradies and builders in the building industry. The Abbott – Morrison era cuts to TAFE were disastrous. We have needed to import builders and engineers from overseas, like it or not.”
So tell us, Mr Civil Engineer. Why do we need to keep building so many houses? Are the old ones falling over? Or are we importing too many people who need houses?
The answer to the housing problem is the most obvious thing in the world. Deep down, you know what the answer is – but you think the answer is racist. So instead, your solution is to keep importing more people, who need more housing.
Lets just build over all of our remaining fertile land. Let’s bulldoze the wilderness to build more houses. Let’s cram everyone into Meriton dogboxes in the sky. Anything, absolutely anything must be done but solve the actual cause of the problem.
This is why the left is losing and One Nation is winning. The left is utterly insane and that’s why the left is dying. It’s not happening fast enough for my liking, but it is happening. Believe it or not, I’m actually left leaning, but the leftist western world bubble has gone crazy and is denying reality and has replaced it with wishful thinking and virtue signalling. Please wake up. The world needs a sane left to balance out the right. Please don’t be insane.
Socrates
It’s a tricky one in the sense that without the protection of the USA we are unable to defend ourselves. I don’t support the war, but perhaps we could have at least made a gesture of assisting? I have heard our navy could not do anything useful. Is this not an indictment of our political class? For a country surrounded by water, an effective navy should be at the top of the list of military priorities.
As I understand it, the problem with the mass immigration is we are not getting in the skilled people we need. It makes sense to import labour that can help fill skills shortages, but that’s not what we are getting. It’s common knowledge how to rort our system in India, and they act accordingly by doing a semester of study, before pivoting to work to send money home. This does not help Australia.
A Trumpy haiku:
It’s been a long weekend.
Hegseth needs to sack more generals.
Distraction wanes; Cuba beckons.
Why Reform UK Are Now Losing and the Greens Are on the Rise
You wouldn’t know it from reading most British newspapers, or watching the BBC, but Reform are now losing the next general election.
In the last six months alone, the party’s poll ratings have dropped by an average of seven points, with support for the other major parties steadily climbing.
Meanwhile, the Green Party, who were previously judged to be so insignificant that the BBC’s flagship Sunday politics programme didn’t even bother to interview Zack Polanski when he became leader, or led his first party conference, is now in second place in the polls.
And while Reform still maintain a lead, that lead is now shrinking month-on-month.
https://www.adambienkov.co.uk/p/crossover-why-reform-uk-are-now-losing