The Australian has published the quarterly Newspoll aggregate for January to March, providing breakdowns from substantial samples for at least the larger of the mainland states along with various demographic categories (UPDATE: Full tables here). The national One Nation vote over this period was 25% compared with 14% for the previous quarter, so naturally there are radical movements across the board. Labor’s national vote was 32% across the quarter, with the Coalition running third on 20%.
The most striking result is that One Nation leads on the primary vote in Queensland with 30%, compared with 27% for Labor and 23% for the Coalition, which is consistent with what the BludgerTrack breakdown for Queensland was already showing. One Nation’s gains come about equally at the expense of Labor and the Coalition in the three largest states, but more so at the Coalition’s expense in Western Australia and South Australia, the small-sample result in the latter case reducing the Coalition to 13%.
Breakdowns by age show Labor dropping by between four and seven points among each of the three cohorts with the exception of 65-plus, where they have only dropped a point, with the result that Labor’s vote share ranges only from 30% to 33% across the four. Conversely, the drop in Coalition support ranges only from five to seven points, leaving intact a clear progression from 14% among 18-to-34 to 26% among 65-plus. One Nation is at 27% or 28% among all cohorts except 18-to-34, where it records 19%. The Greens have been hardly touched by the convulsion, maintaining their characteristic pattern of 26% support among 18-to-34 to 3% among 65-plus.
The only significant gender gap remains higher support for the Greens among women than men, at 14% and 10% respectively, balanced by 30% and 34% support for Labor rather than a distinction between left and right. Support for One Nation is remarkably even across the four income cohorts, ranging only from 23% among those on $150,000 or more to 29% among those on $50,000 or less. One Nation even records 19% among non-English speakers, as compared with 29% who speak only English at home. The party leads among Christians with 31%, compared with 28% for Labor and 24% for the Coalition.
Confessions says:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 8:07 pm
…..but he at least isn’t demented and suffering cognitive decline.
Are you sure, he is a christian after all, anything is possible
This video talks about AUKUS piller two from a Hawks point of view.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_YSE1TpqjY
Slightly annoying that there doesn’t seem to be any polling released in April for Hungary, given it’s less than a week until their next election.
Either they have one of those laws in which polling is banned outside of the week before polling day or they’re saving it all up for the few days before to see who’s right.
Sceptic:
I detest JD Vance. He’s changed his name several times, his origin story the same, has vacillated on Trump depending on what suits his ambitions, and is now claiming attachment to a catholic church that doesn’t know him.
Perhaps the next best alternative needs to wait until after the midterms (cough, cough) when the Democrats take control of Congress again and can start bringing on investigations and deep dives into everything.
Spectator Index: BREAKING: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announces all restraint in targeting will be ending and it will strike infrastructure in a way that could deprive US and regional countries of oil and gas resources for years.
Mehr News Agency, Iran’s state-run news organisation, reported on Tuesday that a large explosion was heard on Kharg Island, the Islamic Republic’s oil hub located in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the agency did not identify the explosion’s source.
“The American-Zionist enemy has carried out several attacks on Kharg Island, and several explosions have also been heard on the island,” the outlet wrote on Telegram.
Roughly around the same time, BBC Persia correspondent Farzad Seifikaran took to X to write that “Iranian media reported several large explosions on Kharg Island as a result of an Israeli attack.” The reports came hours before US President Donald Trump’s deadline for the country to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. https://breakingthenews.net/Article/Iranian-media-reports-explosion-on-Kharg-Island/66020371
Do not laugh at my bunker ….
Taco yeah right!Photos it’s on fire!
https://metro.co.uk/2026/04/07/several-large-explosions-heard-kharg-island-hours-trump-deadline-27883811/
William Bowesays:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 6:58 pm
Timmy, I observe that your brain rot is a recent development, and was not at all evident when you showed up here (or at least your account did) about a year or ago, or even I believe quite a lot more recently.
=============================================
So you mean he is new? I just thought he was another incarnation of Gympie/Badthinker etc. I don’t like the idea there are to many out there like him I guess.
pied piper
You could stand up and look out of it if you were 6ft 5.
Steve777:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 8:21 pm
While that’s right & is arguably persuasive, Roberts-Smith was awarded the VC for Australia, not the British gong, with the result that we are in uncharted waters.
pied pipersays:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 8:32 pm
Explosions heard on kharg island.
Breaking.
Vic libs WTF?
__________________
Vic libs civil war spilling out that far?
FFS pee pee those 2 AFR articles you posted links for (paywalled by the way) both state that the extra costs in transport and housing are being caused by the Middle East war.
Wasn’t that started by your orange poo poo hero?
You should retreat to your bunker and stay there.
Interesting poll. Very few people seem to be happy about AI.
For anyone wondering why 1.33 quotas is the tipping point for the territories to two seats instead of one but can’t follow the harmonic mean Wikipedia page, here’s my attempt at an explanation.
If you divide four thirds by two seats, you get two thirds per seat, which is one third from a full quota.
If you divide four thirds by 1 seat, you get four thirds, which is also one third from a full quota (but above rather than below).
Thus any more than four thirds will get you two seats that are closer to a quota than one seat.
Steve777:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 8:21 pm
– – – – – – – – – – – –
Good point, well made. I note that despite vastly more Military Crosses being awarded, only four have been revoked, and two of those were for falsified recommendations, not transgressions of the recipient.
I guess Britain doesn’t revoke Honours and Awards these days. Oh, except for a certain Order of the Garter 😉
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/coalition-locked-in-third-place-behind-labor-and-one-nation-for-sixth-consecutive-poll-sky-news-yougov-pulse/news-story/c8b3eb9a2e8d80c8e1af656f19694212
Latest YouGov, via skynews.
Guessing we have a new thread in the wee hours. Lotsa polls!
Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 6:45 pm
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/04/07/opyh-a07.html
……………………………………………..
And of course, they and the Greens despise Labor for being the only effective left wing, working class party in Australian history.
====================================================
I don’t think too many folk still subscribe to the fantasy that Labor is a left wing party.
These days they are somewhere to the right of the Fraser coalition government.
“These days they are somewhere to the right of the Fraser coalition government.”
Frasers coalition Government got rid of universal health cover. Not even the LNP would try and do that today (not openly anyway).
Oho, nice catch, Nadia for the YouGov poll.
Primary votes,
Labor: 30% (+1)
One Nation: 25% (-2)
Coalition: 20% (+1)
Greens: 13% (=)
Independent: 6% (=)
Other: 7% (+1)
Two Party Preferred,
Labor: 55% (+1)
Coalition: 45% (-1)
Also with the other party,
Labor: 55% (+2)
One Nation: 45% (-2)
I think they need to start doing 2PP Labor/ON.
The Opposition won 31.8 per cent of the primary vote at the federal election last year.
Liberals carried 20.7 per cent of that figure, Nationals 3.8 per cent and the LNP 7.1 per cent.
Now, the Liberals account for 14 per cent of the Coalition’s combined 20 per cent. The Nationals account two per cent and the LNP four per cent!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Trust Hanson to get involved. She’s most likely chasing the Army vote in Townsville’s Lavarack Barracks:
Pauline Hanson
@PaulineHansonOz
I remain steadfast in my support of Ben Roberts-Smith despite news of his arrest today.
Ben, his immediate and broader defence family need the Australian people’s support right now and I will not abandon him like so many other politicians.
Ben was disgracefully arrested in front of his twin 15 year old girls.
He will be held in jail for 7 days. He gets just one bail application. If that application fails, they can hold him for 2 years.
AFP and OSI have spent $300 million dollars over 10 years to get to this point.
@Confessions at 9:22pm
They did do the 2pp Labor/ON poll, I didn’t read the whole article and have edited it into my previous post.
30 generals have refused, 12 fired.
Is this what is happening?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/I23mtn-578E
Hi nadia welcome back.
Some thoughts from your Sky News link.
The government has faced criticism for its handling of public spending, social cohesion, inflation, and fuel supply in the past few months.
If an election were held today, Labor would comfortably defeat the official Coalition, the data shows.
On a two-party-preferred basis Labor holds a 55–45 lead over the Coalition, up one percentage point, and commands the same margin against One Nation, up two per cent.
Confected criticism from the Murdoch gutter media and the MSM which the voters haven’t bought.
2PP looks strong for Labor and they would win an election easily.
It would seem my view is not new. Rights for the natives.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/6cIE0G56448
Kirs:
I see. Thanks.
I think Hanson should be whipped with a prosthetic boot should BRS be found guilty.
e.g.w.says:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 9:15 pm
Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 6:45 pm
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/04/07/opyh-a07.html
……………………………………………..
And of course, they and the Greens despise Labor for being the only effective left wing, working class party in Australian history.
====================================================
I don’t think too many folk still subscribe to the fantasy that Labor is a left wing party.
These days they are somewhere to the right of the Fraser coalition government.
__________________
I think you are looking the wrong place if you were hoping for pro-greens content at the WSWS:
“Australian Greens’ phony posturing against Iran war”
“Notwithstanding its occasional “left” rhetoric, the Greens is a capitalist party, committed to the parliamentary order and to the defence of capitalism and Australian imperialism. The Greens’ record on war has been either to divert opposition back behind the political establishment, or to openly support imperialist operations.”
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/03/16/sfvd-m16.html
“Australian Greens back Royal Commission witch-hunting opposition to Gaza genocide”
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/01/14/tgbc-j14.html
I can’t imagine what Hanson is thinking,defending BRS. Is there a pro-BRS vote out there that people don’t know about?
What if he is found guilty and convicted? Will she continue to stand by him? Honestly, the parliament needs less of these Boomer types who are slowly losing their mental acuity.
That’s not really the message coming from the polling.
There’s a cohort of Australians voters that are intent on elevating the policy free, racists and oddballs to a heavenly platform that satisfies the cohort’s unhappiness with an increasingly changing world.
They are real and vote while demonstrating a flaw in the concept of universal suffrage.
Morrison had their love once upon a time while Dutton was largely unloved.
The Englishman, Abbott was also fondly regarded once!
Pauline’s mob attracts the Australian version of America’s hillbillys.
A British version put Boris in charge and Australia’s Qld had the “all the way with JBP!
The world including some Americans never imagined the character now often referred to as the “Mango Mussolini ” to evolve into the irrational nutcase that he’s become.
The concept referred to as “midterms ” has taken on a heightened relevance.
Pauline’s followers are like a roll of linoleum in a 1950’s household, very shallow and good at hiding the “flaws”.
Fox News reports that dozens of targets were bombed by the US on Kharg Island.
Railways have been targeted in different parts of Iran.
Good to see you back, nadia. Always nice to see a Bludgers return after sabbatical.
Ven, Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 8:38 pm:
Ven, that is very true.
Not a surprise that One Nation’s shine is coming off a little. The more they are in spotlight, the more their flaws are able to be spotted.
The hugging of Trump is also not going to help things when he seems to leading the world into chaos.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/04/legislative-council-2026-rosevears.html
Legislative Council 2026: Rosevears
A Tasmanian upper house seat that probably won’t be very close this year.
Entropysays:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 9:18 pm
“These days they are somewhere to the right of the Fraser coalition government.”
Frasers coalition Government got rid of universal health cover. Not even the LNP would try and do that today (not openly anyway).
=========================================================
Agreed, but a party’s position on the left/right continuum is not determined by a single arbitrarily selected policy.
Have a look at Labor’s position on:
Attack on Iran;
New coal mines and gas fields;
Gambling advertising;
Minimal taxation of multinationals and resource companies;
Lickspittle to USA (if not Trump personally);
Support for genocidal Israel;
Making sure the NACC is toothless and ineffective;
No real protections for whistle blowers;
More restrictions on right to information (reduced transparency);
Attacks on civil liberties and personal freedoms;
AUKUS (FFS);
Massive uncontrolled immigration.
These are just a few off the top of my head and Labor are pursuing a hard right wing agenda on all of them!
I’ll be about the fifteenth person to welcome Nadia back. Always nice to have people who are in it for the numbers. 🙂
Re the NT’s representation: Ante Meridian has it in a nutshell. Here’s some maths anyway…
If the NT is on the borderline between 1 and 2 seats, there’s not really a good way to avoid it being malapportioned, as the number of seats has to be a positive* integer – if it’s right on 1.33 quotas, you’ll either get one seat that’s 33% over quota, or two (0.67 each) that are each 33% under quota – they’re both wrong, but at least they’re equally wrong. With larger states it matters less – say if Qld lands right on 30.5 quotas, and it’s divided equally into either 30 or 31 seats, then each seat is either 1.017 or 0.984 quotas, ie: 1.7% over or 1.6% under. (And of course we agree not to think about Tasmania’s representation.)
The harmonic mean of two consecutive integers, H(n,n+1) is 2n(n+1)/(2n+1). For n=1, that’s 4/3, the current cutoff between 1 and 2 seats for the NT. For larger n, it’s {2.4, 3.43, 4.44, 5.45} and so on – for large n it converges to n+0.5 as you’d expect. Using that formula everywhere instead of just the NT would mainly affect the ACT – they’ve bounced between 2 and 3 seats a few times since the 90s, and doing it that way would make 3 more likely.
(*) The cool thing about using the harmonic mean is wondering what happens if the NT’s population ever drops too low to get even ONE seat. With the arithmetic mean, that’s below 0.5 quotas. With the harmonic mean, H(0,1)=0, so it’s population would have to drop all the way to zero to lose its last seat, so it’s mathematically impossible for the NT to be completely deprived of a seat.
BRS won’t be convicted unless a unanimous jury (or 11-1, or 10-2, depending on where he’s tried) finds him guilty beyond reasonable doubt. Given the composition of today’s juries, there’s a good chance of at least 2 ONP supporters on a jury. Pauline may have created a large problem for the prosecution.
There’s a chance that her comments might least to her being charged with contempt of court. This tactic would I suspect help BRS.
Free BRS now!
One Nation and LNP should promise a pardon immediately
Timmy
Its not Trump country FFS !!
@Timmy at 10:18pm
Okay, wow? You guys don’t even want the process of justice to happen, do you? Just as long as he’s MAGA then he’s immune from the law.
@Timmy: We went into Vietnam with one primary objective: Assist the South Vietnamese Government in defending its territory against North Vietnam. We failed to do so. When we left Vietnam, it was in recognition that the ARVN was hopelessly bad at its job, that the South Vietnamese Government had effectively zero support outside major urban centers (and not much even within them) and that the VC could move troops & equipment around South Vietnam virtually at will. We left because we saw the writing on the wall and decided that keeping our soldiers there would do no more good; best to withdraw them in good order rather than go down fighting on behalf 0f a populace that largely agreed with the enemy.
Do not rewrite that into a victory. Refusing to face reality means that one cannot learn from it. Any conflict teaches lessons; refusing to learn those lessons demeans the losses suffered by the soldiers. On both sides.
@Matt at 10:29pm
Well said, but these ghouls just don’t care about nuances like that. In fact they just tend to sneer at you for caring about such a thing while they continue to worship their God Emperor President Donald J. Trump.
This lunatic needs to be stopped!
From The Guardian
Thanks for sharing that Been There. I saw it on blue sky but couldn’t manage to get the text.
He is certifiably insane.
And no doubt the brain-dead republicans will shrug their shoulders.
So he is planning genocide- what will his legacy be in 50 years?
Been There says:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 10:36 pm
What a fibber. Trump looks a lot older than 47 🙂
Those are the words of a dangerous lunatic.
Here’s a link to the story in the SMH. I no longer have a subscription but I can read it, so maybe others without a subscription can.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-american-people-want-us-to-come-home-trump-hints-at-end-of-war-20260407-p5zlpm.html
No worries Aqualung.
I have to go to bed soon, very early start in the morning.
I’m worried what I’m going to wake up to.