The Australian has published the quarterly Newspoll aggregate for January to March, providing breakdowns from substantial samples for at least the larger of the mainland states along with various demographic categories (UPDATE: Full tables here). The national One Nation vote over this period was 25% compared with 14% for the previous quarter, so naturally there are radical movements across the board. Labor’s national vote was 32% across the quarter, with the Coalition running third on 20%.
The most striking result is that One Nation leads on the primary vote in Queensland with 30%, compared with 27% for Labor and 23% for the Coalition, which is consistent with what the BludgerTrack breakdown for Queensland was already showing. One Nation’s gains come about equally at the expense of Labor and the Coalition in the three largest states, but more so at the Coalition’s expense in Western Australia and South Australia, the small-sample result in the latter case reducing the Coalition to 13%.
Breakdowns by age show Labor dropping by between four and seven points among each of the three cohorts with the exception of 65-plus, where they have only dropped a point, with the result that Labor’s vote share ranges only from 30% to 33% across the four. Conversely, the drop in Coalition support ranges only from five to seven points, leaving intact a clear progression from 14% among 18-to-34 to 26% among 65-plus. One Nation is at 27% or 28% among all cohorts except 18-to-34, where it records 19%. The Greens have been hardly touched by the convulsion, maintaining their characteristic pattern of 26% support among 18-to-34 to 3% among 65-plus.
The only significant gender gap remains higher support for the Greens among women than men, at 14% and 10% respectively, balanced by 30% and 34% support for Labor rather than a distinction between left and right. Support for One Nation is remarkably even across the four income cohorts, ranging only from 23% among those on $150,000 or more to 29% among those on $50,000 or less. One Nation even records 19% among non-English speakers, as compared with 29% who speak only English at home. The party leads among Christians with 31%, compared with 28% for Labor and 24% for the Coalition.
Thanks Grimee. Much appreciated
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/us/politics/hegseth-religious-tone.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
Hegseth would probably defend BRS.
But in any case, the linking of nationalistic phrasing with religious virtue is very Scomo.
I think the links between real faith and Trump and Hegseth are probably identical to the links between real faith and the Iranian supreme council.
Non-existent.
Just a great tool of power hungry arseholes around the world and across history.
Kirsdarke @ #668 Tuesday, April 7th, 2026 – 6:09 pm
Thanks. It’s a convention rather than a rule. That’s fine.
Welcome back Nadia
It’s interesting that Morgan has pretty consistently had the LNP ahead of ON, other than 1 poll I think
nadia @ #672 Tuesday, April 7th, 2026 – 6:14 pm
Hah. That’s even better. (Sorry Kirsdarke.) It’s because Mr Green says. The logic makes sense.
I just saw Donald Trump saying every bridge in Iran will be decimated. Presumably the Corps of Engineers will be charged with reducing their lengths by ten per cent. They’ll have their work cut out for them doing it all in the one day, especially if the Iranians aren’t keen on the idea.
Re Nadia @5:00 PM.
Exclude the “don’t knows” by dividing the numbers by 0.92
==> Labor 28, ON 26, LNP 21, Green 12, Other (incl. rounding error) 13.
Luigi Smith @ #677 Tuesday, April 7th, 2026 – 6:20 pm
They’ve gone a LOT further. Without getting out my calculator, they gone several thousand TIMES further. The moon is a longish way off.
The Pope calls BS on claims that God supports the US-Israeli side in this war.
Timmy says:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 6:54 pm
The Left is now secretly hoping the lunar orbit mission fails, just so that the Trump Administration gets negative publicity.
They are hoping that the brightest and best get lost in space and their families are consigned to a lifetime of trauma and bereavement.
Such lovely, benevolent people thr Left are.
_______________________________________
It’s the MAGA right who are hoping for a failure, then they can gut NASA and blame the DEI Astronauts for the failure. Not sure how Trump will react when they get home and visit the white house, i mean there is a woman driving the capsule, a black guy sitting at the front and a Canadian just along for the ride.
Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 6:45 pm
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/04/07/opyh-a07.html
“To prevent it being filled by the far-right, it is necessary to build a socialist movement of the working class, against Labor, the entire political establishment and their capitalist program of war and austerity.”
How does the author expect to build this when the far-left is so fragmented that the three “largest” groups can’t stand being in the same room as each other and the Greens Political Party is extremely bourgeois, filled with white university educated trust fund kids from the rich side of town?
Oscar’s Socialist Equality Party despises the Socialist Alliance and Alternative for not being far-left enough. Then Socialist Alliance and Socialist Alternative both despise each other, causing the umbrella group Victorian Socialists grouping to split apart in 2020. And both of the SA groups despise the SEP because the SEP is from NSW.
And of course, they and the Greens despise Labor for being the only effective left wing, working class party in Australian history.
____________________
As far as I can tell, WSWS is proper Leninist “the Soviet union did nothing wrong” types, so someone quoting them here is in support would be about the same as someone quoting Zero Hedge to support a RW political point.
They do have a useful resource for those with that particular lean:
https://www.wsws.org/en/special/pages/introducing-socialismai.html
Speaking of which, “New Media” has gone bizarro as of late – Crikey has gone out and endorsed Andrew Hastie, Michal West Media almost exclusively writes about Israel these days, and Independent Australia looks like it’s down to the same 5 writers recycling the same material week in week out. Macrobusiness seems to have picked up a few extra writers (I think pp is one of them?) I guess showing where the money is flowing on the “alternative” media coverage these days.
@Late Riser at 7:24pm
No need to apologise, in this world the establishment of correct facts through discussion where people might know more than others is something to be appreciated.
Also cheers for Nadia for explaining further.
Ben Roberts-Smith denied bail; Will spend Tuesday night in custody at Silverwater Correction Complex before appearing before a bail division court on Wednesday according to the Age.
Re Bystander @5:55.
Federal Parliament sitting dates 2026:
https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/resource/download/parliamentary-sitting-calendar-2026.pdf
Next sitting in Budget week, 12 May.
In NSW, although a magistrate can hear a show cause application for bail by an alleged murderer and, on rare occasions, grant it, the decision can be stayed until a Supreme Court judge hears it. It appears that Roberts-Smith will spend the night in Silverwater prison (in a single cell) and will probably apply for bail tomorrow.
Fess:
Thanks. I’ve been around, just not posting very much.
There’s not much going on to get very enthused about ATM. The global situation is dreadful, the appalling One Nation party is flourishing, and I’m fearful that the Albanese Government might be about to make a serious misjudgement with a package of tax changes in the forthcoming budget. (Although I am hoping that the package is far more brilliant both in policy and political terms than anything I can envisage, and promise to be the first person to jump on here and praise it if that’s how it turns out.)
Hey Ram.
Kirsdarkesays:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 7:31 pm
@Late Riser at 7:24pm
No need to apologise, in this world the establishment of correct facts through discussion where people might know more than others is something to be appreciated.
Also cheers for Nadia for explaining further.
– – – – – – – – – – – – –
The Electoral Act requires only the the Territories have at least one seat. The AEC explains that the population quotas are based on harmonic means rather than arithmetic means (I’m unsure of whether this is convention or legislated). It has the effect of rounding up at 1.3333, 2.4, and at .5 for every number greater than 3.
Harmonic means are based on the ratios of musical notes where each octave doubles in frequency, and you are dividing up octaves based on multiple of square roots, rather than simple fractions. Wikipedia has more for the harmonically curious.
Late Riser says:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 7:26 pm
Luigi Smith @ #677 Tuesday, April 7th, 2026 – 6:20 pm
Artemis II is getting a lot of publicity. Good on them, but I suspect it’s not NASA’s first poo-management problem. We’re just being told about this one.
Apart from going a little bit further into space, how different is it to Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, and SpaceX’s Crew Dragon tourist space trips?
They’ve gone a LOT further. Without getting out my calculator, they gone several thousand TIMES further. The moon is a longish way off.
_____________________
Well a pretty big difference given that Virgin and Bezoz’s efforts were only sub orbital flights and SpaceX is low earth orbit. It takes quite a bit of effort to go beyond earth orbit and then back again. Main purpose is to test the ship and crew for the long distance. Artemis I did that as well but unmanned. Next mission will be to test the lunar landers in low earth orbit and rendezvous and docking. I guess, this mission is a mix of Apollo 7/8, similar time frame, test the CSM and do a trip found the moon instead of 0 days around earth.
Artemis III will be another Apollo 9, LM/CSM test docking and flight in earth orbit and Artemis IV will be Apollo 11 Remake.
Biggest hurdle is actually getting the LMs from Bezos/Musk on time.
What’s the point of blurring out BR-S’s face in the perp walk from the plane?
About as useful as Bruce Lehrmann litigating for a suppression order on his name in his QLD rape trial.
William:
Being the sad man I am, I sometimes enjoy having a reread the old live results threads, and I too have observed that the either the “Timmy” account has been under new management since the start of the year or the man posting under that non-de-plume might needs to book an appointment with a neurologist.
sprocket_says:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 7:42 pm
What’s the point of blurring out BR-S’s face in the perp walk from the plane?
About as useful as Bruce Lehrmann litigating for a suppression order on his name in his QLD rape trial.
– – – – – – – – — – — –
I would have considered it a mercy if the media had blurred Bruce’s ugly moosh during his various legal travails…
Dr Fumbles McStupidsays:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 7:42 pm
Well a pretty big difference given that Virgin and Bezoz’s efforts were only sub orbital flights and SpaceX is low earth orbit. It takes quite a bit of effort to go beyond earth orbit and then back again. Main purpose is to test the ship and crew for the long distance. Artemis I did that as well but unmanned. Next mission will be to test the lunar landers in low earth orbit and rendezvous and docking. I guess, this mission is a mix of Apollo 7/8, similar time frame, test the CSM and do a trip found the moon instead of 0 days around earth.
Artemis III will be another Apollo 9, LM/CSM test docking and flight in earth orbit and Artemis IV will be Apollo 11 Remake.
Biggest hurdle is actually getting the LMs from Bezos/Musk on time.
– – – – – – – – – –
One big and immediate difference is the capsule. The temperatures experienced by a capsule returning from the moon are nearly twice that experienced by one reentering from Low Earth Orbit. This is due to the build up of speed as you return into earths “gravity well”.
Obviously, its a problem we solved 50+ years ago, but it remains that Orion is capable of that and Dragon isn’t.
Welcome back Nadia.
A Morgan where the ALP vote remains unchanged feels unnatural. At least the others all recorded significant bounces in one direction or other in classic Morgan style from poll to poll. It looks about right, though.
We’re about 4 weeks from budget night and the government is stirring.
I don’t think Hanson’s unstinting support of Trump and his stupid war is going down well. The more her voters catch on that that’s what they’d be voting for the worse it is for her.
‘Australian cricket great David Warner has been charged with drink driving after reportedly blowing twice the legal limit on Sunday’ – news.com
A disturbance in the Force…
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/07/tucker-carlson-rips-donald-trump-easter-iran-truth-social-post-00861281?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=bluesky
The question I ask is this. Should the USA be spared the consequences of its vote for hatred, racism and greed by early removal of Trump from the presidency?
Also, there are plenty of domestic maga types in countries around the world, including Australia. They also need to learn the lesson well, or the error will be repeated.
I know that sucks for the rest of us.
Arky they’ve obviously heard our comments about noise and commenced smoothing.
Food inflation wave here shortly
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/blood-from-a-stone-customers-push-back-at-freight-fuel-increases-20260407-p5zlvh
Housing components inflation a disaster coming soon..
https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastructure/house-paint-price-hikes-add-to-home-building-pain-20260407-p5zls4
Bunker stocked.
Thanks DPR of CBR. I’ll take your word for it. An arithmetic mean versus an harmonic mean (the way I remember the mathematics) is kinda-like the difference between adding numbers and multiplying them. You get a linear sequence with the first and a geometric sequence with the other. But it was long ago. I’ll leave it there. Cheers.
meher:
Yeah, I feel all that too, except I haven’t focused on the budget because there’s so much else more important happening in the world.
It’s a very depressing era at present, that’s for sure.
Puff:
There are no lessons the MAGA faithful will learn other than to double down on what is happening.
Meanwhile for the rest of the world, including those in the US suffering under Trump’s war in Iran, a change of president to Vance might be what is needed right now.
I loathe the man, he’s a juvenile, scolding prat but he at least isn’t demented and suffering cognitive decline.
@PTMD at 7:56pm
I reckon the best option would be to educate the next generation.
I’ve heard it said that in 1945, most German adults were like “Hitler did nothing wrong” and they held that until their deaths. It was only until the 1950’s-60’s when the next generation became adults where they reflected on their history as they were taught in the new schools and were like “Gott in himmel, what is wrong with you?!” and were fully prepared to turn their backs on the Third Reich.
Unfortunately education doesn’t seem to be a healthy part of the USA at the moment, so, might take a couple of generations to flush this lot of brainrot down the toilet where it belongs.
Just leaving this here for context. A total of eight personnel, all British, have had their award of a Victoria Cross revoked. In order of revocation:
1861 Valentine Bambrick (1858) – Convicted of assault and theft of a comrade’s medals
1861 Edward St John Daniel (1857) – Convicted of desertion and evading court-martial
1862 James McGuire (1858) – Convicted of stealing a cow
1872 Michael Murphy (1859) – Convicted of theft
1881 Thomas Lane (1861) – Convicted of desertion and theft
1884 Frederick Corbett (1883) – Convicted of embezzlement and theft from an officer
1895 James Collis (1881) – Convicted of bigamy
1908 George Ravenhill (1901) – Convicted of theft
Date of award in brackets.
Not intending to speculate on the allegations, likelihood of a successful prosecution or anything else to do with BR-S, however I’m sure his VC will be a matter of discussion in that regard.
Donald Trump is dangerous and pretty much immovable unless Republican Congress members and Senators turn against him in numbers (impeachment) or the Chamber of Sycophants (aka the Cabinet) vote for Section 25 (unfit for office). Then it’s MAGA all the way down the line of succession starting with the Vice President. At least most possible replacements aren’t mad and senile.
Roberts-Smith’s counsel will no doubt argue that, given the delay in laying charges and the probable time he’ll await before going to trial, he should get bail.
Wife was involved in an event before Easter. She had a friend who didn’t come from SA because she was worried she could not back. Nothing I could say would settle her anxiety.
The press and Liberals campaign to spread panic and encourage hording have been very successful.
Another 14 hrs before Trump bombs Iran to ‘Stone Age’
King George V (Charles’ great grandfather) believed that once awarded, a Victoria Cross shouldn’t be revoked, regardless of the awardee’s subsequent behaviour. That wish seems to have been followed since.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Cross#Forfeited_awards
@Omar Comin’ at 8:23pm
Hahahaha
A total of 9 Apollo missions (8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, and 17) carried humans around the Moon, allowing 24 astronauts to see the far side of the Moon directly, often referred to as the “dark side”.
What criteria are reporters using to say the Artemis II astronauts are the first to see the dark side of the moon? Ignorance or something else?
@frednk at 8:26pm
A gun pressed to their careers unless they shape their reporting to be like “All this is thanks to Presidentrump. Praise be to Presidentrump.”
“Stone ages”.
Explosions heard on kharg island.
Breaking.
Vic libs WTF?
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_MRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnation%2Fpolitics%2Fstate-liberal-mps-want-president-to-resign-after-giant-dummy-spit%2Fnews-story%2F444d2195b457ee4149b128ca13a69d18&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=ULTRALOW-Segment-2-SCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append
Credible reports are saying that the Artemis II astronauts are the first humans to leave low Earth orbit, the first to go around the Moon and the first to see the far side of the Moon directly with their own eyes in over 53 years. Sounds like sloppy reporting on the part of some outlets.
Apollo record distance from earth c 400,200 kms. Artemis 2 new record c 4o6,700 km. Plus 1.6%. Wow!!! No wonder all the media seems to be at maximum hype.
Omar Comin
Post of the day !! I nearly fell off my chair.
Nicholas, Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 6:06 pm:
The UN Charter gives every currently existing state the right to be free from territorial invasion and abridgment of their sovereignty over their territory:
https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/full-text
newyboy
Whether you like it and accept it or not, Trump and Putin are trying their level best for Viktor Orban victory.