Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March (open thread)

Polling breakdowns find One Nation leading the primary vote in Queensland, and recording remarkably consistent support among a range of demographic categories.

The Australian has published the quarterly Newspoll aggregate for January to March, providing breakdowns from substantial samples for at least the larger of the mainland states along with various demographic categories (UPDATE: Full tables here). The national One Nation vote over this period was 25% compared with 14% for the previous quarter, so naturally there are radical movements across the board. Labor’s national vote was 32% across the quarter, with the Coalition running third on 20%.

The most striking result is that One Nation leads on the primary vote in Queensland with 30%, compared with 27% for Labor and 23% for the Coalition, which is consistent with what the BludgerTrack breakdown for Queensland was already showing. One Nation’s gains come about equally at the expense of Labor and the Coalition in the three largest states, but more so at the Coalition’s expense in Western Australia and South Australia, the small-sample result in the latter case reducing the Coalition to 13%.

Breakdowns by age show Labor dropping by between four and seven points among each of the three cohorts with the exception of 65-plus, where they have only dropped a point, with the result that Labor’s vote share ranges only from 30% to 33% across the four. Conversely, the drop in Coalition support ranges only from five to seven points, leaving intact a clear progression from 14% among 18-to-34 to 26% among 65-plus. One Nation is at 27% or 28% among all cohorts except 18-to-34, where it records 19%. The Greens have been hardly touched by the convulsion, maintaining their characteristic pattern of 26% support among 18-to-34 to 3% among 65-plus.

The only significant gender gap remains higher support for the Greens among women than men, at 14% and 10% respectively, balanced by 30% and 34% support for Labor rather than a distinction between left and right. Support for One Nation is remarkably even across the four income cohorts, ranging only from 23% among those on $150,000 or more to 29% among those on $50,000 or less. One Nation even records 19% among non-English speakers, as compared with 29% who speak only English at home. The party leads among Christians with 31%, compared with 28% for Labor and 24% for the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

830 thoughts on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 17
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  1. Not surprised Australia’s version of Alabama (the state, not the troll shitposter) prefer the empty slogans of One Nation. It’s where it started and was given life by John Howard afterall.

  3. sprocket_says:
    Monday, April 6, 2026 at 6:00 am
    The Leader of the Free World with a measured, sober post to kick off our day…

    I look forward with trepidation for Iran and rest of the world for the day and time Monday, 6th of April @10:35(New York time)(that is when this threat matures, which is 12:35 am Sydney time). 🙁

  4. And the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament responded….

    The Middle East will “burn” because of the U.S. and Israeli campaign against Iran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, said Sunday in a post on X following President Trump’s threats to attack Iranian infrastructure.

    “Your reckless moves are dragging the United States into a living hell for every single family, and our whole region is going to burn because you insist on following Netanyahu’s commands,” he said in reference to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, adding that “you won’t gain anything through war crimes.” Ghalibaf said the only viable path forward lies in respecting the rights of the Iranian people and stepping back from further escalation.

    WSJ

  5. Al Jazeera

    US satellite firm Planet Labs announces blackout on war on Iran images
    Company says move amid US-Israel war on Iran comes after a request from the US government.

    https://www-aljazeera-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/4/5/us-satellite-firm-planet-labs-announces-blackout-on-war-on-iran-images?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17754063745939&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fnews%2F2026%2F4%2F5%2Fus-satellite-firm-planet-labs-announces-blackout-on-war-on-iran-images

  6. MTG responds:

    Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene@FmrRepMTG
    ·
    6h
    On Easter morning, this is what President Trump posted.
    Everyone in his administration that claims to be a Christian needs to fall on their knees and beg forgiveness from God and stop worshipping the President and intervene in Trump’s madness.
    I know all of you and him and he has gone insane, and all of you are complicit.
    I’m not defending Iran but let’s be honest about all of this.
    The Strait is closed because the US and Israel started the unprovoked war against Iran based on the same nuclear lies they’ve been telling for decades, that any moment Iran would develop a nuclear weapon.
    You know who has nuclear weapons?
    Israel.
    They are more than capable of defending themselves without the US having to fight their wars, kill innocent people and children, and pay for it.
    Trump threatening to bomb power plants and bridges hurts the Iranian people, the very people Trump claimed he was freeing.
    On Easter, of all days, we as Christians should be reminded that the son of God died and rose from the grave so that we can be forgiven once and for all of our sins. Jesus commanded us to love one another and forgive one another. Even our enemies.
    Our President is not a Christian and his words and actions should not be supported by Christians.
    Christians in the administration should be pursuing peace. Urging the President to make peace.
    Not escalating war that is hurting people.
    This NOT what we promised the American people when they overwhelmingly voted in 2024, I know, I was there more than most.
    This is not making America great again, this is evil.

  7. “ The party leads among Christians with 31%, compared with 28% for Labor and 24% for the Coalition.”

    I’m pretty sure Hanson was not the leader “jesus” had in mind. I’m not seeing her driving out the bankers or feeding the masses. Something has gone astray. After all, he was a refugee.

    It is a feature of White Nation that they have no actual policies, just vague notions. How have we got to this point. Well done Dutton on legitimising these buffoons.

  10. Confessionssays:
    Monday, April 6, 2026 at 6:26 am
    MTG responds:

    Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene@FmrRepMTG
    ·
    6h
    On Easter morning, this is what President Trump posted.
    Everyone in his administration that claims to be a Christian needs to fall on their knees and beg forgiveness from God and stop worshipping the President and intervene in Trump’s madness.

    I know all of you and him and he has gone insane, and all of you are complicit.
    I’m not defending Iran but let’s be honest about all of this.
    The Strait is closed because the US and Israel started the unprovoked war against Iran based on the same nuclear lies they’ve been telling for decades, that any moment Iran would develop a nuclear weapon.
    You know who has nuclear weapons?
    Israel.
    They are more than capable of defending themselves without the US having to fight their wars, kill innocent people and children, and pay for it.
    Trump threatening to bomb power plants and bridges hurts the Iranian people, the very people Trump claimed he was freeing.
    On Easter, of all days, we as Christians should be reminded that the son of God died and rose from the grave so that we can be forgiven once and for all of our sins. Jesus commanded us to love one another and forgive one another. Even our enemies.
    Our President is not a Christian and his words and actions should not be supported by Christians.
    Christians in the administration should be pursuing peace. Urging the President to make peace.
    Not escalating war that is hurting people.
    This NOT what we promised the American people when they overwhelmingly voted in 2024, I know, I was there more than most.
    This is not making America great again, this is evil.

    It is as if the fog has lifted from the brain of MTG and she has seen the light after Jesus had blessed her on Easter.
    This is what happens when you leave a cult. Clarity of thought returns.

  12. Trump, Stephen Miller, Hegseth, Trump’s Cabinet, Netanyahu and his Cabinet Putin are evil personified along with US Republicans.

  13. If the world has any guts they will impose sanctions on US and Israel. Since they don’t have guts to impose sanctions on US, they should atleast impose severe sanctions on Israel.

  15. Omar Comin’says:
    Monday, April 6, 2026 at 6:47 am
    The stuff in those files must be pretty bad.

    Omar
    Are you referring to Epstein files?

  16. You have to wonder at US ingenuity sometimes….

    The drones can dart across fields at 100 miles an hour, punch through windows and bowl over assailants.

    The sleek, black machines aren’t destined for battlefields in Ukraine or skies above the Middle East. Instead, they will hurtle through the hallways of high schools in Florida and Georgia.

    Mithril Defense is deploying fleets of drones—called “Black Arrows”—for schools as part of state-funded programs to increase security and reduce gun violence.

    The machines can screech, flash strobe lights and shoot pepper gel to deter assailants—while operated by pilots at the company’s headquarters in Austin, Texas.

    Executives from Mithril and law-enforcement officials said the drones could reduce student casualties by reaching attackers faster than police or school-resource officers.

    “It’s revolutionary,” said Volusia County Sheriff’s Office Capt. Todd Smith, who oversees safety and security for the county’s schools in Florida. The drones are expected to be installed in Deltona High School on Monday and be ready for use this fall. “This is the future.”

    https://www.wsj.com/business/a-startup-is-supplying-drones-to-high-schools-to-stop-mass-shootings-a7800ade?mod=mhp

  17. The words and thoughts that came out of MTG should have come out US Congress Democratic leaders like Schumer and Jeffries.

  18. sprocket_says:
    Monday, April 6, 2026 at 6:55 am
    You have to wonder at US ingenuity sometimes….

    The drones can dart across fields at 100 miles an hour, punch through windows and bowl over assailants.

    The sleek, black machines aren’t destined for battlefields in Ukraine or skies above the Middle East. Instead, they will hurtle through the hallways of high schools in Florida and Georgia.
    ……….

    Instead there is a good probability that Trump and his Cabinet will use these drones against his opponents.

  19. It has been a policy of Western democracies that a country as a whole should suffer if they did not like the leaders and their actions of that country.
    That is the reason they imposed sanctions and tariffs on various countries.
    Why can’t we apply that policy to Israel and US? Since we don’t have guts to that against US, we should do that against atleast Israel.

  20. If you understand the word ‘PROJECTION’, then you can understand a lot of actions since a long time.
    That is, if I can think and do such actions, the others can also think and do like that. It doesn’t matter whether others think and act like that.

    Trump and his minions are experts in that. They project everything on others.

  21. Let’s hope that Trump is the very last democratic leader who is elected despite having obvious symptoms of dementia.

  22. Labor supporters upset Irans losing as they hate Israel and do not want it to exist.

    Iran is a terrorist regime and Trump has zero obligation to Australia given the failure of the fed labor gov for four long years to boost fuel reserves and also labor has blown out inflation for four years, forcing interest rate rises 15 times and has no buffer now to war inflation.
    They are current federal labor government own goals not anyone else’s.
    More interest rate rises coming and One nation says Thankyou labor.Own goals.
    The more labor bags Trump the more votes go to One nation his proxy.

    Young Angus needs to come out with a very low visa/ immigration intake and sell it and fast!
    Winter is coming for Australia.

  25. Le Monde Chimes in with:

    Why is Donald Trump so mean?

    By shamelessly flouting democratic norms and flaunting his amorality, brutality and bad faith, the American president restores pride to his humiliated electoral base, unsettles his opponents, and subverts the rules of the political game.

    Read free here: https://archive.is/SCYSh

  26. Bernie Sanders on ‘X’
    it “dangerous and mentally unbalanced”.
    He said on X: “One month after starting the war in Iran, this is the statement of the President of the United States on Easter Sunday. These are the ravings of a dangerous and mentally unbalanced individual. Congress has got to act NOW. End this war.

  27. It’s an election year in Israel and the discourse is sounding a lot like the US 2024 elections. Will Israelis heed the warning that Americans failed to do?

    Addressing political activists at a gathering of his Yesh Atid party in Tel Aviv, Lapid warned that “if we don’t save the country now, in two years, there will be nothing left to save. The window of opportunity will close.”

    Israelis currently are presented with two choices: “a successful, sophisticated, world-renowned first-world country, with liberal values ​​and love for Jewish tradition and a strong sense of community, or a violent and backward third-world country, which turns Judaism into racism and wants to eliminate our democracy,” he stated.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/lapid-if-netanyahu-wins-the-next-election-it-will-be-the-end-of-zionism/

  28. Trump mean?

    Hmmm secured his borders from crims and murderers flooding in.
    Ended the fentanyl disaster in US.
    lowest homicide rate in 100 years and crime rates down.
    Dealt with narco states that survived on misery.
    15 trillion of investment secured.
    Dealing with biggest terrorist out fit on the planet.
    Mean err go see a shrink!
    They will diagnose Trump derangement syndrome.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15707335/australia-building-cost-hike-prices-albanese.html

    Inflation and interest rates …..

    Mean is fed labor gov that have driven hundreds of thousands of Aussies into rental poverty and homelessness and do not care as they continue to bring in large numbers.
    Electricity prices up 37% .Labor meanies and what about those labor gov mean girls?

  29. Hey pied piper, if you just ignore the reason for all those interst rate rises (covid pandemic and all the money to stimulate the economic, then straight into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) then yeah sure it’s labor’s fault.

  31. Some comments here unfairly say One Nation has no policies. If you could trouble yourselves to open their website, you’d see them right there. It’s always venom against Pauline and One Nation’s supporters. Never engagement with their arguments.

    Let’s start with the argument that importing masses of foreigners into Australia in the middle of a housing crisis drives up competition for housing, and thus prices. That’s a no brainer, surely? Even the geniuses in the government must admit this, hence their phony promises to bring immigration levels down.

    Regarding the war. I used to like some of Trump’s policies despite his chaotic personal style. This, however, has turned me off him completely. I think of the poor Iranian civilians who suffer through this. At least someone (MTG) is sparing a thought for them.

  32. Deplorables upset America is losing as they hate school children and puppies and do not want them to exist.

    America is a terrorist regime and Australia has zero obligation to them given the failure to think for two seconds about the potential consequences of shoving their **** in a hornets nest and also they are the main characters in Epstein pedo files, forcing a cover-up that is now 15 times dumber than Watergate and killing people on multiple continents.
    One Nation are their Hutt worshipping friends in Australia, Labor thanks them for splitting the deplorables and delivering even bigger election wins for the left. Winning.
    The more the cookers bag Labor the more elections Labor win. Winning

    Young Angus a seat warmer (eww) for the next Lib loser. Will their party make it to spring?

  33. Morning all. Thanks William for the lead in on the Newspoll summary. The trend is undeniable- ON is on the rise, and at least partially at the expense of Labor.

    I find the ON results in Qld especially striking. Yes Qld is where ON/Pauline came from, but it is also where she got caught rorting her party funding, and crashed and burned in parliament with (8 of 11?) MPs defecting in a single term. In short ON proved incapable of governing.

    Pauline / ON can’t solve the fuel crisis. We have no more economically recoverable oil. More utes aren’t a solution. What do voters expect ON to deliver?

  34. Next step is a rush on basics to beat the coming, inflationary price rise tidal wave coming to Australia.
    Me stocked the bunker and bought extra toothpaste and other basics etc .

    Bunker down,unemployment will increase as interest rates slam the economy.Will happen quickly.The tides gone out and Australia has been swimming naked.
    Whats coming is an economic tidal wave.

    Btw easiest way to fix housing is to seriously restrict numbers and boot overstaying visa holders but globalist labor does not do this.It acts and operates in a world that no longer exists.
    One nation says Thankyou.

  35. Jacob Pruden

    Hanson/ON supports Australia intervening in Iran. With what? As I pointed out yesterday, we have one ship that realistically could be sent, which would leave nothing to deploy against any threat that may emerge in our region.
    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/it-is-our-problem-pauline-hanson-has-called-for-australia-to-help-donald-trump-stamp-out-evil-in-iran-conflict/news-story/0a3cca716e38adb23a2a7c76aa2a6d3a

    Likewise on immigration and the housing crisis. I am a civil engineer. There is a shortage of qualified tradies and builders in the building industry. The Abbott – Morrison era cuts to TAFE were disastrous. We have needed to import builders and engineers from overseas, like it or not. In my field now, more than half of all the professional engineers practicing in Australia are foreign born. Without them we wouldn’t be able to do anything.

    How exactly can One Nation hope to fix either problem? (Defense or housing).

  37. This place is entertaining when the comedy writers are posting. I’m not sure which was the better line this morning:

    ‘Deplorables … hate school children and puppies’ or ‘Me stocked the bunker’.

  38. SLsays:
    Monday, April 6, 2026 at 7:42 am
    Australia’s diesel stocks have increased every year that the Albo govt has been in power.
    -> In 2022 they were 1799.9ML, this year they are 2406.9ML
    https://www.energy.gov.au/energy-data/australian-petroleum-statistics

    This was possible because they built new storage:

    https://business.gov.au/grants-and-programs/boosting-australias-diesel-storage-program

    And yet 14% of Autralians individually blame Albanese and 15% Australians blame both Albanese and Trump for so called fossil fuels shortage.
    That is the power of MSM that unfortunately includes Sky after dark, which is beamed for free across regional and rural areas.

  39. Happy to see the value of my EV rise.

    I live in a new subdivision, the hardest workers by far are the tradies from overseas and there’d be no houses here without them. Howard’s efforts to degrade TAFE and privatise VET are still echoing through the country…the money lost to ‘Private Providers’ was damning; so much could have been done with that instead of giving away iPads to new students and then not delivering any training.

  40. I tend not to pay attention to Pauline and therefore had no idea she wants Australia to join Trump and Bibi’s war in Iran.

    That should be amplified.

  41. “The deeper story is this: the two-party system as Australians have known it is not just under pressure at the margins. It is being hollowed out from two different directions by two different generations carrying two different kinds of economic pain, bound together by geography, by financial stress, and by a shared sense that the system was not built for them and has no serious intention of being rebuilt.

    The commentary has spent months talking about One Nation. That focus is not misplaced. But it is incomplete.

    The more consequential disruption may not come from the right at all. It is already here, already voting, and it is twenty-two years old and it’s coming from the Left.”

    https://redbridgeintel.substack.com/p/left-and-right-populism-it-has-arrived

  42. Pauline Hanson wants Australia to join US-Israel team in Iran war.

    Israeli President, Israeli Ambassador, Liberal party and One Nation say that Israel is ally of Australia.
    Provide me one example where Israel helped Australia in anyway. It has always been one-sided love from Australia.

  44. “Bowen was asked about Trump’s remarks, where the president called on Iran to let ship through the strait while threatening further attacks on Iranian infrastructure. Bowen told RN Breakfast this morning:

    Well, for the last 10 years, I haven’t made a habit of commenting on every social media comment of president Trump, and I don’t intend to start now because we’d all keep ourselves very busy. We want to see the strait of Hormuz open.

    When pressed if that level of retort from Trump warranted a comment from the Australian government, Bowen added:

    We are not participants in this war. We didn’t participate in the decision to begin the war, but we are, like many like-minded countries, calling for it to end in the best interest of the people of the Middle East, obviously, but also in the best interest of the world economy.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/apr/06/anthony-albanese-fuel-crisis-angus-taylor-middle-east-labor-liberals-moira-deeming-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-69d2d7888f08764b987ca973#block-69d2d7888f08764b987ca973

  46. Both the United States and Israel misunderstood the nature of the regime and of Iranian society more broadly. For the Shiite theocratic regime, the death of its religio-political leader, just as was the case with Nasrallah in Lebanon, simply added to the Shiite narrative of sacrifice in the face of overwhelming odds. And the 12-day air war with Israel in June 2025 taught the Iranians the need for decentralised control of military assets and reinforced the need to identify capable and ideologically committed subordinates well in advance, to replace those leaders who would inevitably be targeted.

    As we have seen so many times in the recent past in the Middle East, you don’t kill your way to victory. That holds true for individual fighters on the ground as much as it does to senior political and military figures. Leadership decapitation sounds good and holds out the promise of quick success. But measured in the longer term, it rarely provides good outcomes.

    In the case of Iran, what has transpired post-decapitation was readily foreseen by regional experts and many in the intelligence community. But Trump and Netanyahu both believe in their ability to bomb their way to victory, starting with their enemies’ leadership. Both history and the present show us how ill-founded that belief is.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/trump-tried-to-cut-the-head-off-the-iran-snake-but-it-keeps-biting-him-20260405-p5zldi.html

    That’s putting it mildly. Why Republicans aren’t right now having serious conversations about invoking the 25th amendment is beyond me.

  47. Re Sprocket @6:00.

    Those are not the words of a man in full possession of his faculties. Maybe some random drunk in a pub, but someone supposedly in authority, let alone a national leader?

  48. As Iran charges for access to Strait of Hormuz, world faces dangerous new era of maritime tollbooths

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-06/iran-strait-of-hormuz-maritime-tollbooths/106532804

    “Mojtaba Khamenei is not just the next supreme leader, but also an angry, grieving son because not only was his father killed by the United States, but it seems his mother was too.

    Moreover, he lacks the clerical background of an ayatollah, so he depends on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to stay in power. This means it’s likely that the military wing of the Iranian state, and the most hardline element of it, is more in charge than it was before. In effect, Trump may have brought about a military takeover.
    :::
    All that really matters to the global economy is whether, and when, the Strait of Hormuz opens again, and it looks like Iran has not only entrenched its control of the entrance to the Persian Gulf, but it’s also planning to charge users to go through it — that is, set up a maritime tollbooth.

    Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is now charging ships from “friendly countries” a fee to pass through.
    :::
    More broadly, if Iran gets away with ignoring the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea by denying free “transit passage”, other governments and armed groups could follow suit.
    :::
    A 2023 study found that three-quarters of global maritime trade, or $US10 trillion in value, passes through 13 key choke points.

    If the idea of maritime tollbooths catches on, we will be entering a new era of much more expensive, more dangerous global shipping.”

  49. Steve777:

    What’s telling is that all those around Trump felt they couldn’t dissuade him from bleating out that post, or perhaps more likely, that they shouldn’t.

  50. The last two labor interest rate rises in past two months have not even kicked in yet so more coming is a disaster.
    Forgot the Brut yesterday,luckily can stock up cheaply today on deodorant as Aussies are not yet awake to price rises coming.When they do watch the supermarket panic buying across the board.
    Even an end to war this week will not stop other rate rises as inflation is at a stupid 3.7%.

    Shhhhh……

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/apr/03/fish-chips-fuel-crisis-how-far-price-of-classic-meal-soar-australia

    Last paragraph.

    Off to the bunker.

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