Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March (open thread)

Polling breakdowns find One Nation leading the primary vote in Queensland, and recording remarkably consistent support among a range of demographic categories.

The Australian has published the quarterly Newspoll aggregate for January to March, providing breakdowns from substantial samples for at least the larger of the mainland states along with various demographic categories (UPDATE: Full tables here). The national One Nation vote over this period was 25% compared with 14% for the previous quarter, so naturally there are radical movements across the board. Labor’s national vote was 32% across the quarter, with the Coalition running third on 20%.

The most striking result is that One Nation leads on the primary vote in Queensland with 30%, compared with 27% for Labor and 23% for the Coalition, which is consistent with what the BludgerTrack breakdown for Queensland was already showing. One Nation’s gains come about equally at the expense of Labor and the Coalition in the three largest states, but more so at the Coalition’s expense in Western Australia and South Australia, the small-sample result in the latter case reducing the Coalition to 13%.

Breakdowns by age show Labor dropping by between four and seven points among each of the three cohorts with the exception of 65-plus, where they have only dropped a point, with the result that Labor’s vote share ranges only from 30% to 33% across the four. Conversely, the drop in Coalition support ranges only from five to seven points, leaving intact a clear progression from 14% among 18-to-34 to 26% among 65-plus. One Nation is at 27% or 28% among all cohorts except 18-to-34, where it records 19%. The Greens have been hardly touched by the convulsion, maintaining their characteristic pattern of 26% support among 18-to-34 to 3% among 65-plus.

The only significant gender gap remains higher support for the Greens among women than men, at 14% and 10% respectively, balanced by 30% and 34% support for Labor rather than a distinction between left and right. Support for One Nation is remarkably even across the four income cohorts, ranging only from 23% among those on $150,000 or more to 29% among those on $50,000 or less. One Nation even records 19% among non-English speakers, as compared with 29% who speak only English at home. The party leads among Christians with 31%, compared with 28% for Labor and 24% for the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

830 thoughts on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: January to March (open thread)”

Comments Page 17 of 17
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  2. Let’s not overlook that the Shia theocracy that control Iran have made it clear, in words and actions, that they are trying to obliterate the age-old civilisation of the Jews in these regions. It’s only now in Israel that that civilisation survives.

  4. In relation to Queensland gaining an extra seat This time, I can’t see it happening.

    The redistribution has already been delayed and at that time Queensland had 30.42 quotas

    As it’s quota is moving in a small range it won’t det to 30.5 when the next figures are released


  6. Timmy says:
    Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 2:23 pm
    ….
    We WON the Vietnam War. We chose the circumstances and timing of when we withdrew without surrendering and blasted the Viet Cong apparatus to a pulp.

    Probable the wrong place to try and rewrite the Vietnam war. There are a few posters older than me, and I am old enough to be in the year that would have had a marble in the barrel if Whitlam hadn’t won ( you probable don’t know what that little lottery was about). Over 520 young Australians lost their life, over 2500 wounded. And for what? It should be a matter we hang our head in silence and regret, it should be above twisted right wing politics, above a cheap jab on a bulletin board.

    To other matters:

    Thank god Albo and Wong has made it clear this is not a USA miss-adventure we are going to get involved in.

    To be honest I am generally pretty tolerant but I currently have the firm view Angus Taylor should just shut up, I find his attempt to undermine efforts to stop the panic over the fuel situation repulsive, really repulsive.

  8. PP likes to moan about housing shortages and immigration.

    There is a paywalled article in the West Australian with this headline;

    “Summit Homes Group imports hundreds of tradies in large scale migration program to boost housing supply”.

    An obvious fix to an ongoing problem caused by conservatives gutting trades training.

  9. A whole civilisation will die tonight: Trump warns Iran as deadline looms
    Trump still held his cards close to his chest, saying the attack might be called off at the last moment depending on the situation, and described tonight as “the most important moment in the long and complex history of the world.”

    https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/whole-civilization-will-die-tonight-dont-want-it-but-it-probably-will-trump-warns-iran-before-deadline-end-2892851-2026-04-07

    I hate Trump and Hegseth.

  10. US hits 50 military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island; Trump deadline hours away
    The US hit 50 military targets on Kharg Island, Iran’s strategic oil hub, just hours before a deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to strike a ceasefire deal ends at 8 pm ET on Tuesday (5:30 am IST on Wednesday). ie 10 am Sydney time

    https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/irans-strategically-important-kharg-island-targetd-with-strikes-local-media-2892765-2026-04-07

  12. Aqualung says:
    Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 10:53 pm

    Probably explains all the sacking of high ranking military this week.
    ____________________

    Well I guess that is a form of “Complete and Total Regime Change” but I highly doubt the ” smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail” in the White House and Pentagon.

    Oh and welcome back Nadia, you have been missed.

  13. The US is a genocidal terrorist rogue state. Anti-imperialists have been saying this for decades.

    Will the world learn the lesson? Doubt it.

  16. ticktock @ 11.46.

    agreed.

    Why are we in bed with that nation? AUKUS junkies can fug right off.

    JD Vance was right when he described Drumpf as America’s hitler.

  18. Ven says:
    Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 11:42 pm

    A whole civilisation will die tonight: Trump warns Iran as deadline looms
    Trump still held his cards close to his chest, saying the attack might be called off at the last moment depending on the situation, and described tonight as “the most important moment in the long and complex history of the world.”

    https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/whole-civilization-will-die-tonight-dont-want-it-but-it-probably-will-trump-warns-iran-before-deadline-end-2892851-2026-04-07

    I hate Trump and Hegseth.
    __________________________

    Well it is Taco Tuesday so he will bravely chicken out, again, and “the most important moment in the long and complex history of the world.” Oh FFS and the MAGA/ON lot lap this crap up.

    Hopefully his dementia will quickly advance enough that they can do the old trick on mentally challenged leaders, put him in a ‘new’ oval office, give him papers to sign and have meetings and just go along with his delusions and pretend he is in charge.

  19. mabwm @ 11.54

    AUKUS only exists in the first place because Boris Johnson wanted to get revenge on the French for their perceived hardball negotiations over Brexit. It was always a bad idea, and Australia is not getting those submarines we are paying the better part of half a /trillion/ dollars for. I do support Australia having a submarine capacity, but AUKUS ain’t it – we should have stuck with the French, or made a deal with Germany or Japan for conventionally powered AIP submarines. Very disappointed that Albanese didn’t have the spine to stand up the ASPI cranks on this one.

    Australia must have a truly sovereign Defence capability, rather than relying on the Americans to come and save us.

  22. BREAKING: Iran responds after President Trump says their “entire civilization will die tonight:”
    “All diplomatic channels and indirect talks have been frozen after President Trump’s recent threats,” Iran says.
    Shorter version: Get f…d

  23. Bird of paradoxsays:
    Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 10:14 pm

    (*) The cool thing about using the harmonic mean is wondering what happens if the NT’s population ever drops too low to get even ONE seat. With the arithmetic mean, that’s below 0.5 quotas. With the harmonic mean, H(0,1)=0, so it’s population would have to drop all the way to zero to lose its last seat, so it’s mathematically impossible for the NT to be completely deprived of a seat.
    – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
    While the mathematical aspect is appealing BoP, there is a simpler reason why NT will never be deprived of a single seat – the Electoral Act sect 48(2A) provides that a territory with a population below 0.5 quotas will not have representation, but that is subject to Sect 48 (2B) which specifically prescribes a minimum of 1 seat for ACT and NT.

    Sect 48 goes on to make a variety of call outs for Norfolk, Christmas and Cocos (Keeling) islands (as in what happens if they are not otherwise represented), but I draw the inference from those call-outs that if their population suddenly grew to the point where they exceeded 0.5 quotas, they would qualify to have a member (even though they are not currently self-governing). Absent that 0.5 quota, Norfolk Island is represented by the ACT and the others by NT (although their populations are not counted for determining the quotas for ACT and NT).

  24. Orban, the Mouse that Roared!

    “Viktor Orbán told Putin ‘I am at your service’ in October phone call:
    Transcript reportedly details Hungarian leader offering whatever assistance he can to his Russian counterpart”
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/07/viktor-orban-told-putin-i-am-at-your-service-in-october-phonecall

    On Tuesday, Bloomberg News said it had obtained a Hungarian government transcript of a call that took place between Orbán and Putin on 17 October, in which Orbán reportedly compared the relationship to that of a “mouse” standing ready to help the Russian “lion” as needed.

    “Yesterday our friendship rose to such a high level that I can help in any way,” Orbán reportedly told Putin in the call. “In any matter where I can be of assistance, I am at your service.”

    In an attempt to emphasise his point, Orbán was said to have made reference to one of Aesop’s fables in which a mouse who was earlier shown mercy by a lion goes on to free the same lion when it is netted by hunters. The remark drew a laugh from Putin, the transcript suggested.

    Not a great look for a purported ‘Hungarian nationalist’.

  26. “ Rafiki says:
    Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 10:14 pm
    BRS won’t be convicted unless a unanimous jury (or 11-1, or 10-2, depending on where he’s tried) finds him guilty beyond reasonable doubt. “
    _______

    Commonwealth offences. Will need to be a unanimous verdict regardless of where he’s tried.

  29. Lawyers

    “The evidence comes from laboratory experiments, mock jury simulations, and some real-world observational studies.”

    I’m with the Mavis AI answer here. Everything about psychology tells us it is impossible to tell humans to ignore pre-trial publicity. The anchoring effect is very strong. The only fair trial he gets is from jurors who haven’t followed his case. There should be plenty of them. Including me.

    And isn’t it nice to wake up to Trump threatening genocide against the Iranian people.

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