Federal polls: Morgan and Essential Research (open thread)

A lift for Labor in the latest Roy Morgan poll, which probably says more about the series’ variability than the impact of recent events.

I have two poll results to relate, plus a plug for a reupholstered BludgerTrack, where you will now find distinct series under “leadership ratings” for the Sussan Ley and Angus Taylor eras, if eras isn’t too big a word (which it is).

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up three points to 30%, the Coalition down three to 22.5%, One Nation steady on 23.5% and the Greens steady on 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead is out from 52.5-47.5 to 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences, and from 51-49 to 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1562.

• I missed the latest monthly Essential Research poll last week due to preoccupation with the South Australian election. It had Labor up a point to 31%, the Coalition down two to 24%, One Nation up two to 24% (reaching parity with the Coalition for the first time in this series) and the Greens down a point to 10%. The 2PP+ measure shifted from 48-47 in favour of the Coalition to 47-46, these two being the only two-party poll results of any sort since the May 2025 election to have the Coalition ahead. Anthony Albanese was down three on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 51%, while Angus Taylor recorded an above-par debut of 35% approval and 33% disapproval. Further questions focused on foreign affairs, including findings that 26% supported and 42% opposed to the US-Israeli military action against Iran, and 34% supported and 26% opposed Australia’s response. The poll was conducted March 18 to 23 from a sample of 1008.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,123 thoughts on “Federal polls: Morgan and Essential Research (open thread)”

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  1. @Ven

    Where are they getting this much money and munitions and soldiers to kill so many tens of thousands of people and at the same time keeping their economy going into tailspin?

    Probably from the administration run by nihilists and death cult evangelicals who want to bring forward the end times so their fanatical supporters can be raptured into heaven.

  2. As of now, over 3000 Iranians are killed by US-ISRAEL carpet bombing.
    I ask on day of Easter, What is their sin?
    Why are sinners like Trump, Hegseth and Netanyahu are not punished by their gods?

  3. “ The Albonator says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 3:11 pm
    Has Upnorth given us his twice yearly homily on the evils of the ‘Odious daylight saving’ yet?….I always look forward to that….long may it continue….tho in SA we love it”

    Those of us who live on the shores of the Indian Ocean experience a permanent, year-round 20 minutes of daylight savings. That’s quite enough for most of us. I would prefer it if daylight were added to the mornings rather than to the afternoons. Perhaps we should appeal for the restoration of that 20 minutes by making the time difference between WST and EST 2 1/2 hours.

  4. Kirsdarkesays:
    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 5:51 pm
    @Ven

    Where are they getting this much money and munitions and soldiers to kill so many tens of thousands of people and at the same time keeping their economy going into tailspin?

    Probably from the administration run by nihilists and death cult evangelicals who want to bring forward the end times so their fanatical supporters can be raptured into heaven.

    Kirsdarke
    1971; India-Pak war was for 14 days.
    After 1971 Indo-Pak war, where India won the war (clear-cut win, where Pakistani army and leadership surrendered (that is another story) and liberated Bangladesh, Indian inflation went upto around 22%, Indira Gandhi became deeply unpopular within 1 year( Immediately after Indo-Pak war, Indian PM was extremely popular). There was huge social unrest. Indian PM Indira Gandhi imposed internal emergency across India to quell that emergency, where all constitutional rights were suspended. It was for about 18 months. Lot of horrible things happened because of Congress party thugs during that time (but that is another story)

  5. Ven says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 5:48 pm
    Upnorth
    We never heard your take on illegal Iran war and how it is impacting the countries you travelled and reside.
    中华人民共和国
    I jumped on via VPN the other week whilst in Inner Mongolia. The usual remarks from my Chinese hosts about Trump being mad in the head. But China very little impact. Fuel prices haven’t moved and there are no shortages. I was told they haven’t yet touched their strategic reserves. Also as I noted the other week, the proliferation of Electric Vehicles and solar and wind generation are everywhere.

    In Thailand the Government has pulled a fuel subsidy. Prices, especially diesel, well and truly up. Many Servos have no fuel and there is a fear that this years’ Rice Crop will be damaged. Lots of people on the poverty line will find things even tougher. Thailand relies heavily on LNG for Electricity Generation. Most is produced locally so electricity price rises not

    In Indonesia, Coal exports have been restricted to save fuel for local use. I didn’t notice any major impacts at the pump price of supply wise as Indonesia is fairly self sufficient.

    Across the region Thermal and Coking Coal prices up.

    As to the war. Upnorth has no time for any of the political leaders who are engaged in this conflict. From Bibi to Donnie and the hard line Clerics of Iran. It’s hard to decide who is worse.

    As for the people in the middle – as always – it’s for them that I maintain my hope for a swift end to this and the many other conflicts the world is currently facing.

    Hope that helps cobber and trust your knees are on the mend mate.

  6. Vile Shlomo says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 5:49 pm

    I am talking about the Forever War in which Israel, Iran, Heshbollah, Hamas and the Houthis have all made genocidal vision statements which all of them, within their means, try to implement

    Regardless of whatever vague “vision statements” you want to attribute to them…

    There is no ‘regardless’ about it.

    It is what they attribute to themselves.

    That is what it is all about.

    Iran and its proxies want to ethnically cleanse the jews from the River to the Sea and Israel has, since 1948, been ethnically cleansing the arabs and the muslims from the river to the sea.

    Both get to claim that the other is an existential threat. The bad behaviours of both sides ensure that the other side IS an existential threat.

    It is a perpetual motion machine fueled by hatred.

  7. Some detailed info on the air man’s rescue.
    US destroyed 2 of their C-130 planes rather than leave them intact.

    He climbed a ridge. That is where the story turns. When the F-15E was hit on Friday morning, both crew members ejected over the mountains of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province in southwestern Iran. The pilot was located first and extracted by HH-60 rescue helicopters within hours, under small arms fire that wounded crew aboard the recovery aircraft. The weapons systems officer landed deeper in hostile terrain. He was alone on the ground in a country where state television was broadcasting a bounty for his capture and Basij militia were flooding the mountain roads below.

    According to reports now confirmed by Fox News citing two senior US officials, the WSO used his SERE training, the survival, evasion, resistance, and escape doctrine drilled into every American combat aircrew. He moved on foot through rugged terrain. He climbed to an elevated ridge near the city of Dehdasht. He activated his encrypted emergency beacon. And he waited.

    The beacon was the thread. Everything that followed pulled on it.

    US Joint Special Operations Command launched a night extraction package. Reports indicate Delta Force operators and Pararescuemen from the 24th Special Tactics Squadron inserted via helicopters from the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, the Night Stalkers, the unit that flew the Bin Laden raid. A-10 Warthogs from the 355th Wing provided close air support, running gun passes on IRGC and Basij convoys advancing toward the WSO’s position. HC-130J tankers kept the package airborne. Multiple aircraft were dispatched to establish a temporary fire zone around Dehdasht, a no-entry perimeter enforced with precision strikes on a telecommunications tower and approaching vehicles. Iranian local officials reported at least four killed and several wounded from the strikes.

    Then the operation went sideways. According to reports corroborated by Fox News’s confirmation that US forces destroyed “aircraft which have sensitive equipment,” two C-130 transports landed at a remote forward arming and refuelling point inside Iran to support the extraction. Both became stuck. Rather than allow the aircraft and their classified systems to fall into IRGC hands, American forces destroyed both planes on the ground. The deliberate destruction of two US military aircraft inside Iran to deny equipment to the enemy is the detail that separates a clean extraction from an operation that nearly failed before it succeeded.

    Additional transports arrived under A-10 cover. The Delta operators and Pararescuemen who were now themselves stranded at the destroyed landing zone loaded the WSO and extracted under ongoing fire. Fox News reported that the WSO “and the members of the rescue team are all safely out of Iran.” Zero American casualties.

    Desert One in 1980 ended when a helicopter collided with a C-130 on a remote Iranian airstrip, killing eight Americans before the mission reached Tehran. Forty-six years later, C-130s were destroyed on Iranian soil again. This time the destruction was deliberate. This time the team got out. This time the man they came for came with them.

    The operation confirms two truths that cannot be separated. American special operations forces can penetrate, fight inside, and extract from Iran. And the war that was supposed to be over required the most elite soldiers in the US military to fight a ground battle in Iranian mountains to recover one man from a country with no air defences. Both statements are true. The rescue proves American capability. The need for the rescue proves Iranian capability. And the 48-hour countdown is still running.

  8. hack says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 6:00 pm
    “ The Albonator says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 3:11 pm
    Has Upnorth given us his twice yearly homily on the evils of the ‘Odious daylight saving’ yet?….I always look forward to that….long may it continue….tho in SA we love it”

    Those of us who live on the shores of the Indian Ocean experience a permanent, year-round 20 minutes of daylight savings. That’s quite enough for most of us. I would prefer it if daylight were added to the mornings rather than to the afternoons. Perhaps we should appeal for the restoration of that 20 minutes by making the time difference between WST and EST 2 1/2 hours.
    中华人民共和国
    This is true. The quicker the sun goes down in the afternoon the better. It’s too bloody hot.

  9. Ven says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 5:51 pm

    As of now, over 3000 Iranians are killed by US-ISRAEL carpet bombing.

    False statement.

    The US and Israel are NOT engaged in carpet bombing.

  10. The ABC could have simply prerecorded Insiders on Thursday so David Speers and co could still have their long weekend while still giving us a weekly wrap.

    I know prerecording as opposed to live would be far from ideal as it wouldn’t be completely up-to-date but that’s alright as a one off for Easter.

    There was the same amount of political insight on today’s Insiders as on a normal Sunday

  11. “Regardless of whatever vague “vision statements” you want to attribute”.
    The Hamas charter is not a “vague vision statement”. It explicitly refers to genocide of all Jews, and for the domination of Islam across the world.

    “Our struggle against the Jews is very great and very serious.”
    “The Day of Judgement will not come about until Moslems fight the Jews (killing the Jews), when the Jew will hide behind stones and trees. The stones and trees will say O Moslems, O Abdulla, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him.”
    “Israel, Judaism and Jews challenge Islam and the Moslem people. May the cowards never sleep.”
    “Islamic groupings all over the Arab world should also do the same, since all of these are the best-equipped for the future role in the fight with the warmongering Jews.”
    “Peace and quiet would not be possible except under the wing of Islam.”

  12. Iran and its proxies want to ethnically cleanse the jews from the River to the Sea and Israel has, since 1948, been ethnically cleansing the arabs and the muslims from the river to the sea.

    It’s not even true, unless your definition of “ethnic cleansing” is that you don’t get to keep the home you stole from the family that’s been living as refugees since they were ethnically cleansed by you.

  13. Did you see Hayley Francis report on Channel 9 News regarding farming community suffering in Australia because of surge in fossil fuels due to illegal Iran war?
    Although Albanese government is not mentioned literally, It was critical of the situation they are in.

  14. Ven hopefully that farming community won’t switch from supporting Labor to supporting deplorables, like Geoff provost did.

  15. Vensays:
    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 5:40 pm

    “which were not needed if Iran war did not happen”

    __________________

    I’m pretty sure that all the economic reform and sovereign capability stuff that has been announced, or at least hinted to, were:

    – not only should be proceeding anyway even in the absence of the war;
    – not only should have been done during the last crisis (COVID)
    – not only should have been done during the crisis before that (GFC)
    – but are a reversal of course on a bunch of policies that should never have happened dating back to at least Hawke and Keating.

    At least during my short time being aware of politics I can think of 3 crisis wasted, and least there are some overtures not to waste this one.

  16. Ven:

    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 5:51 pm

    ‘Why are sinners like Trump, Hegseth and Netanyahu are not punished by their gods?’

    ‘I will take revenge; I will pay them back, says the Lord…’ Don’t let evil conquer you, but conquer evil by doing good.” (Rom. 12:17-19, 21, NLT).’

  17. I get the feeling that my comment from earlier in the afternoon has conjured up the spirit of Upnorth. I did feel the ground move and shake a little around lunchtime….but put that down to last nights Vindaloo. Its good to have you back, however briefly, and while enjoying the benefits of said odious practice of moving clocks while watching the early seasons exploits of the AFL Also on the other thread watching the late counting of South Australias’ Upper House, all this must have awakened said Northern spirit to bring wrath on these vile Southern practices

  18. Upnorth
    My knees have improved a lot. Currently, I am walking without walking stick at home albeit slowly. The saga started on October 23rd, 2025, when I replaced my right knee. After almost 4 months, I got my left knee replaced on February 17th.
    A lot of physiotherapy during these 5 1/2 months.

  19. Ghost Of Whitlam says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 6:12 pm

    There is plenty more where that came from. On both sides.

  20. The Albonator says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 6:25 pm
    I get the feeling that my comment from earlier in the afternoon has conjured up the spirit of Upnorth. I did feel the ground move and shake a little around lunchtime….but put that down to last nights Vindaloo. Its good to have you back, however briefly, and while enjoying the benefits of said odious practice of moving clocks while watching the early seasons exploits of the AFL Also on the other thread watching the late counting of South Australias’ Upper House, all this must have awakened said Northern spirit to bring wrath on these vile Southern practices
    中华人民共和国
    I’ve enjoyed my travels immensely this time. Some friends I haven’t seen for many years. As always too much grog and Tucker but “making memories”. But my age is catching up with me. The Mao Tai lingers and the Double Happiness cigarettes I reluctantly consume stay with me for days. But my Asian friends are generous to a tee.

    Today is Qing Ming where Tombs are swept and ancestors remembered. It was terrific fun to recall “past glories” with my mates.

    I want to try to get to Crow Eater land later this year cobber. Winter won’t worry me. I hope we can meet up with some of the other South Aussie Bludgers. New friends and new adventures. Thanks for looking out for me.

  21. Ven says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 6:30 pm
    Upnorth
    My knees have improved a lot. Currently, I am walking without walking stick at home albeit slowly. The saga started on October 23rd, 2025, when I replaced my right knee. After almost 4 months, I got my left knee replaced on February 17th.
    A lot of physiotherapy during these 5 1/2 months.
    中华人民共和国
    Good luck mate. My Achilles is just about healed 8 months later! Still tender after a long walk but I’m glad I did the op. Keep safe cobber.

  22. Now this is what renewable energy is all about.

    https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02mC996UpvAgGQnVwBCEAXRtYzAiX57ksMjftjtfZyg3GHaLFYzEwavhBoSWNCJLMxl&id=61566914035025

    Australia just completed a 4,000-kilometer renewable energy transmission line — the longest clean energy highway ever built — connecting massive outback solar and wind farms directly to coastal cities that need power most.

    The AustraliaLink transmission corridor carries electricity generated by 10 gigawatts of solar panels and wind turbines installed across the remote Northern Territory directly to Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane using high-voltage direct current technology. HVDC transmission loses only 3% of electricity over the full 4,000-kilometer distance, making it vastly more efficient than traditional AC power lines which would lose over 30% across the same distance. The project required laying 4,000 kilometers of underground and undersea cables crossing some of Australia’s most remote and challenging terrain.

    The remote outback location was chosen deliberately because the Australian interior receives 300 days of full sunshine annually and experiences some of the strongest and most consistent wind resources on Earth, generating electricity at one-third the cost of coal-fired generation in coastal cities. The transmission line delivers baseload equivalent power by combining solar generation during daylight with wind generation overnight, with large-scale battery storage bridging any short gaps.

    Three million Australian homes now receive clean electricity from this corridor, eliminating 18 million tons of coal combustion emissions annually and reducing household electricity bills by an average of 23%.

    Source: Australian Renewable Energy Agency, TransGrid Australia, 2025

    Just I wish they posted a credible link to this post. Either way, the Coalition/One Nation want to either cancel or destroy it.

  23. Upnorth, you are most welcome. I was wading through all these war/trump posts, and your name came to mind. Always enjoy the way you break up some of the stodgy conversations that we sometimes indulge in…..and I was indulging far too freely in our Southern practices that you did come to mind…..and quite magically or coincidentally, here you are.

    Yes, drop a line should u venture into our bleak winterscape….maybe a SA blidgers get together is not out of the question

  24. How serendipitous of Upnorth to make an appearance on the day daylight savings finally ends!

    I personally hate daylight savings, but I recognise that in NSW it is here to stay, so my only plea is that the period is shortened. Starting in October and ending in April is way to long. Perhaps December to February, that being the summer season only seems appropriate to me.

    Welcome back Upnorth!

  25. Upnorthsays:
    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 6:36 pm
    Ven says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 6:30 pm
    Upnorth
    My knees have improved a lot. Currently, I am walking without walking stick at home albeit slowly. The saga started on October 23rd, 2025, when I replaced my right knee. After almost 4 months, I got my left knee replaced on February 17th.
    A lot of physiotherapy during these 5 1/2 months.
    中华人民共和国
    Good luck mate. My Achilles is just about healed 8 months later! Still tender after a long walk but I’m glad I did the op. Keep safe cobber.

    Thanks and same to you Upnorth.

  26. We had 10 years of a National government, what did they do in those 10 years to prepare their farming communities?

  27. Kirsdarke your posts link was AI slop generated from the very real Project EnergyConnect and the proposed “Australia-Asia PowerLink” (sending power from Solar generated in the Lake Woods area up to Darwin then Singapore). Then as AI is want to do, mangles that real world information with hallucinations and “prompt engineering” designed to generate click bait.
    https://www.aemo.com.au/initiatives/major-programs/nem-reform-program/nem-reform-program-initiatives/project-energyconnect-market-integration-project
    https://www.transgrid.com.au/projects-innovation/energyconnect/

    So two projects, one where the power is generated in the NT and sent north, was mangled and slopified by AI into being combined with the project on the East Coast, and twisted into AI bullshit.

  28. “Regardless of whatever vague “vision statements” you want to attribute”.

    The Hamas charter is not a “vague vision statement”. It explicitly refers to genocide of all Jews, and for the domination of Islam across the world.

    Important to debunk.

    Firstly, it’s not the current Hamas charter.

    Secondly, at the time the charter was written, Israel was creating Hamas to undermine the PLO (forty years after the Nakba).

    Thirdly, it’s a not an actual call for “genocide of all Jews”. It is a quote from Islamic scripture attributed to the prophet Muhammad. He is describing events of a final battle against the armies of the Antichrist and the return of Jesus at the end of days.

    So can we be done with this fraudulent misrepresentation being used in apologetics for an actual genocide, actually Gaza and Lebanon makes two genocides.

  29. @Ghost of Whitlam

    Thanks for letting me know how this post came into existence. Cripes I hate AI slop.

    I should’ve done some more double-checking, but it was linked by an acquaintance on Facebook who I’ve assumed so far has similar political views to myself, and I personally think it would be awesome if it actually happened.

  30. Confessions says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 6:49 pm
    How serendipitous of Upnorth to make an appearance on the day daylight savings finally ends!

    I personally hate daylight savings, but I recognise that in NSW it is here to stay, so my only plea is that the period is shortened. Starting in October and ending in April is way to long. Perhaps December to February, that being the summer season only seems appropriate to me.

    Welcome back Upnorth!
    中华人民共和国
    Thanks Fess, Ven Albanator. Travel and other matters have made time here rarer than a full XXXX at Lang Park after Queensland beats NSW in the State of Origin.

    Special shout out to Earlwood who I hope is recovering well from several injuries.

    I’m about to board and will try to drop in more. Happy Easter for those of Western Faith (next week for those in the Orthodox tradition).

  31. That extraction sounds nervy. High risk stuff. The talk of Eagle Claw and add some of the failed missions in Afghanistan are worth reflecting on.

    Will the excitement such operations creates encourage the two nutters calling the shots to want more incursions, not just extractions? Or will the near disaster give pause for thought and a search for off ramps? I fear I know the answer.

  32. Gen. George says Army deserves ‘leaders of character’ in farewell letter

    https://thehill-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/thehill.com/policy/defense/5816539-general-george-farewell-letter/amp/?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17753696123981&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fthehill.com%2Fpolicy%2Fdefense%2F5816539-general-george-farewell-letter%2F

    Gen. Randy George, the U.S. Army’s chief of staff ousted by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, on Friday sent a farewell letter saying the Army deserves “leaders of character.”

    George thanked Army officials for their support in an email posted on Reddit’s Army page. An Army official confirmed the email’s legitimacy to The Hill.

    “I know you’ll all continue to stay laser-focused on the mission, continue innovating, and relentlessly cut through the bureaucracy to get our warfighters what they need to win on the modern battlefield,” George wrote.

    “Our soldiers are truly the best in the world –– they deserve tough training and courageous leaders of character,” he continued. “I have no doubt you will all continue to lead with courage, character and grit.”

    George said he looked back on his 38-year career in the Army with “immeasurable pride” and always chose to “‘stay another tour’ because of the selfless people I was blessed to serve alongside.”

  33. Kirsdarke says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 7:12 pm
    Nice to see you back, Upnorth.
    中华人民共和国
    Thanks cobber. How is the reading going??

  34. Newspoll: One Nation on top in Queensland as Labor slides
    Newspoll reveals One Nation now commands more support than Labor or the Coalition in the Sunshine State, as young Australians and women shift away from Anthony Albanese.

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