Federal polls: Morgan and Essential Research (open thread)

A lift for Labor in the latest Roy Morgan poll, which probably says more about the series’ variability than the impact of recent events.

I have two poll results to relate, plus a plug for a reupholstered BludgerTrack, where you will now find distinct series under “leadership ratings” for the Sussan Ley and Angus Taylor eras, if eras isn’t too big a word (which it is).

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up three points to 30%, the Coalition down three to 22.5%, One Nation steady on 23.5% and the Greens steady on 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead is out from 52.5-47.5 to 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences, and from 51-49 to 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1562.

• I missed the latest monthly Essential Research poll last week due to preoccupation with the South Australian election. It had Labor up a point to 31%, the Coalition down two to 24%, One Nation up two to 24% (reaching parity with the Coalition for the first time in this series) and the Greens down a point to 10%. The 2PP+ measure shifted from 48-47 in favour of the Coalition to 47-46, these two being the only two-party poll results of any sort since the May 2025 election to have the Coalition ahead. Anthony Albanese was down three on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 51%, while Angus Taylor recorded an above-par debut of 35% approval and 33% disapproval. Further questions focused on foreign affairs, including findings that 26% supported and 42% opposed to the US-Israeli military action against Iran, and 34% supported and 26% opposed Australia’s response. The poll was conducted March 18 to 23 from a sample of 1008.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,123 thoughts on “Federal polls: Morgan and Essential Research (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 23
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  1. Winning!

    FOR HALF a century the Middle East’s petro-monarchies have cast themselves as reliable suppliers of low-cost petroleum. The third Gulf war, now in its fifth week, has shattered that image. With the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, 15% of the world’s oil cannot reach its customers. All Gulf states have slashed output and seen export proceeds plunge.

    All bar one. As its tankers keep plying the strait (see chart 1), Iran is now earning nearly twice as much from oil sales each day as it did before American and Israeli bombs started falling on February 28th. It may be pummelled on the battlefield, but the regime is winning the energy war.

    https://archive.is/z2wVi

  2. Sprocket
    But what he should have said was:
    “Australia supports the United Nations Charter and the rule of international law. We call on the United States and Israel to cease this illegal act of war and join 1xx other nations in calling for the Security Council to meet in emergency session”

  3. Trump: U.S. will bomb Iran “back to stone ages”…

    He’s working his way back, starting with the concrete age, then the brick age, etc, and evetually he’ll get to the stone age (which meant the time where they were belting each other over the head with stones tied to sticks) and then declare victory. I know I skipped over an age or three two but I haven’t had coffee yet.

  5. Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Friday, April 3, 2026 at 9:02 am
    U.S. will bomb Iran “back to stone ages”, where they belong, over next 2-3 weeks
    So much for liberating the under trodden people of Iran from their despotic yoke.
    Is there any greater crime than destroying a people, virtually on a whim (or on Bibi’s instructions)

    According to Trump, once Trump bombs and sends the Iran to ‘stone age’, the SOH will open naturally.

    To be frank, I don’t know much about Iran topography. But we have seen what happens when US goes to war in Middle East and that is horrible and ugly.
    I expect that to happen if Iran is bombed to ‘stone age’.

  7. Another health event from Trump to back up his shitshow speech from the other day (night). If ever there was a time the 25th amendment needed invoking surely it’s now.

    Trump was speaking at an Easter function at the White House on Wednesday (US time), when he described a phone call he made to Macron to seek French support for the war.

    “And I call up France, Macron, whose wife treats him extremely badly,” he said, as the audience laughed. “Still recovering from the right to the jaw,” he added.

    “And I said: ‘Emmanuel, we’d love to have some help in the Gulf, even though we’re setting records and knocking out bad people and knocking out ballistic missiles. We’d love to have some help. If you could, could you please send ships immediately?’”

    Trump said Macron replied: “No, no, no, we cannot do that, Donald. We can do that after the war is won.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/treated-badly-trump-sparks-furore-as-he-mocks-macron-s-marriage-20260403-p5zl40.html

  13. goll in the event that William Bowe reads the comments, I am sure he will be thrilled to learn that I agree with his view on Morgan being quite noisy.

  14. Now that Hegseth has fired the Army Chief of Staff General Randy George, it is obvious that he should personally take US troops into battle. This is a no brainer as Hegseth has declared that his god will absolutely protect the US troops against the heathen Iranians and destroy them (back to the Stone Age as Trump so eloquently said). Surely Hegseth has absolutely nothing to fear as he leads his army into battle?

  15. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Friday, April 3, 2026 at 8:07 am
    Donald Trump has ordered a 100 per cent tariff on pharmaceuticals manufactured outside the United States, a move that could have a big impact on Australia. Australia exported $US1.32bn of pharmaceuticals to the US in 2025, United Nations COMTRADE data shows.
    The US Supreme Court ruled in February the President’s sweeping ‘liberation day’ tariffs were illegal, however the pharmaceuticals levy has been enacted under different legislation.
    https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/donald-trump-slaps-100-tariff-on-pharmaceuticals-hitting-australian-industry-hard/news-story/703b31296d9824ca6feca6342610afa6

    HH
    How can he do it especially after SCOTUS ruled that unilateral imposition of Tariffs by Trump without US Congress is illegal?

  17. Confessionssays:
    Friday, April 3, 2026 at 8:26 am
    The firing of Ms. Bondi, 60,

    Bondi looks young for her age. Does she use……?

  21. Oh yes he does have a plan.

    For the ignorant .
    Iran is out of money it needs the straits open as it has started to do… https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/iran-war-oman-hormuz-strait.html
    Trump knows the longer the war goes the poorer the regime gets and like China dictators need to keep the economy and jobs going or they are overthrown.

    So he waits for Iran to either back down economically or on the battlefield either way Russia is not acting.
    Cuba is next and trump uses Ukraine to keep Russia onside.
    USA does not need oil has enough to trade to other countries .
    Sad news on the above is Albo will be spared as Iran will open up its oil or its regime with its impoverished people will be in trouble and threaten the regime.
    Winning!
    Meanwhile the progressive left loser trio go backwards economically,aus,Uk and Canada.
    Trump does not care neither should he about those countries own goals.
    Meanwhile Israel and USA bomb the crap out of Iranian military.All good.
    Keeps the military match fit ,may get some army in to keep them battle hardened.

  24. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup HH. The multi-nation phone hookup over night sounded good but I see no evidence of a plan emerge. So the Gulf war goes on and the SOH remains blocked.

    Meanwhile countries like the Philippines are negotiating deals for their ships with Iran.

    Earlier today Israel (or USA?) bombed a highway bridge in Tehran. This was entirely civilian infrastructure with no military use, other than relieving traffic congestion in Tehran. That is a war crime.

  25. Omar Comin’ says:
    Friday, April 3, 2026 at 9:44 am
    goll in the event that William Bowe reads the comments, I am sure he will be thrilled to learn that I agree with his view on Morgan being quite noisy.

    __________

    Of course he does! Bilbo the omnipotent!

    I also expressed how bouncy Morgan was. I don’t mind that actually.

  28. Vile Shlomosays:
    Friday, April 3, 2026 at 9:04 am
    Various commentators and the Greens are extolling Spain’s sticking it to Trump. These same people are routinely silent about Spain losing $30 billion in trade as a direct consequences.

    Spain is in a customs union with the EU so that’s not how it works. But of course sometimes there’s a price to be paid for defending the common interests of all humanity. Nobody thought Albo would close Pine Gap, but it was still a surprise to see him cheering on this world historical clusterfuck the day it launched – try to think of a more embarrassing

    There are many more embarassing moments in Australian history involving L-NP politicians.

  29. https://prospect.org/2026/04/02/opening-of-trumps-box-iran-war-strait-hormuz/

    The Opening of Trump’s Box
    Iran has put a tollgate across the Strait of Hormuz. This fundamentally changes the global economy.
    by David Dayen April 2, 2026

    President Trump’s address to the nation on—I want to say Iran?—provided no real information on when his war of choice would end, outside of the kind of assurance you get from a plumber doing work on your house that it will all wrap up in about two weeks.

    But even if Trump announced the immediate cessation of hostilities and drove to the Pentagon to pull back the bombers personally, the implications of his decision to attack Iran are already determined, and eventually the investors wishcasting that everything will soon go back to normal will figure that out. This war has been an elaborate, destructive way to teach Iran a lesson, and unfortunately for the U.S., Israel, and the world, that lesson has been: Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz.

    This is new information to Iran. The country had not been monetizing its geographic good fortune of having 20 percent of the world’s oil, 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas, and one-third of the world’s nitrogen-based fertilizer pass near its shoreline. Closing the strait was always an implied threat that would result from aggressive action against the nation or its leadership, something known to everyone in the world except Donald Trump, it appears. But the threat was typically closure, and what’s emerging is something quite different. Iran has slowly realized that, unbelievably, it can actually get away with throwing a tollgate across the strait. Thanks to Trump and Israel, Iran has gained immense economic and diplomatic leverage.

    This means that the outcome of the war is immaterial from an economic standpoint. There will now be a permanently higher cost to shipping in one of the world’s most important choke points, as a new middleman enters the picture. This will make oil, gas, fertilizer, and a host of other products either derived from or relying on these commodities permanently more expensive. This price level increase changes the calculations of entire economies and heightens the need for an energy transition. That could be hopeful for the planet as green technologies become even more urgently necessary. But in the short term, it leads to mass suffering, resource wars, and geopolitical chaos. Pandora and her box had nothing on Trump.

  30. So, let me get this straight. Pete “we negotiate with bombs which is totally different to how terrorists negotiate oh just trust me on that one” Hegseth has, mid-war, sacked his chief of staff while amassing troops in the Gulf.

    Obviously the most likely possibilities are that either the CoS is being blamed for the failures of the war so far, or is not prosecuting Hegseth’s orders because they are illegal or impossible.

    While many would no doubt point to “boots on the ground” as the issue, I am not so sure. I would expect the CoS to fulfill those tasks to the best of their abilities.

    If the issue instead is what they are choosing to bomb and which type of bomb to use, then things could get really grim.

  31. Waleed Aly:
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-petrol-price-cut-is-derided-as-dumb-populism-but-it-goes-deeper-than-you-think-20260402-p5zkty.html

    _____________________

    Aly talks at length of “signals” of the fuel excise cut, yet ignore 90% of the press club speach outlining reorienting of macroeconomic policy away from comparative advantage trade specialisation to broad based re-industrialization.

    I genuinely don’t get the point of Aly’s article if he so obviously misses the big picture.

  32. sprocket_says:
    Friday, April 3, 2026 at 9:37 am
    goll – my comment

    Essential should drop their useless 2PP+ measure

    It does seem a strange outcome at this time!

  34. Err also Iran today has also started charging for tankers to go through.

    Why ? Because they need the money !
    Their bargaining chip with USA is useless so oil will be flowing quickly or regime is in trouble by its impoverished people.
    Winning!
    Iran took one look at Trumps speech yesterday and realised they are stuffed hence today’s actions on opening up the strait.

  35. ‘Australia deploys SAS troops to the Middle East.

    Australia has reportedly deployed SAS troops to the Middle East. According to the Daily Telegraph, 90 Special Air Service personnel will be based at the Al Minhad Air Base near Dubai in the event of war in the region escalating further. It is understood that the troops will not be involved in any US attacks but will instead focus on emergency rescues of diplomats in the region. Defence Minister Richard Marles was asked on Sky News yesterday if Australia was sending any more military assets to the region. Anthony Albanese is maintaining his stance that Australia will not aid in offensive combat in the conflict.’

    – Sky News from a DT article.

    That’s what Menzies said in ’62 when 30 observers were sent to Vietnam. The rest is history.

  36. Sprocket

    While Trump’s America may be increasingly erratic and self-interested, Richardson says China’s rise means we need to hug Washington as close as possible and keep it engaged in our region. The key, he says, is to “not allow emotion to get in the way of it”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/my-chat-with-dennis-richardson-was-very-relaxed-suddenly-his-laid-back-tone-vanished-20260331-p5zkbw.html

    I have two concerns about Richardson’s view, and many other defenders of the US alliance.

    First, there seems to be a failure of imagination on the part of ANZUS/AUKUS defenders. They cannot envision a world in which USA is not our close ally. Yet this is a possibility we must at least plan for. What if USA walks away from its treaties? That is a real risk under Trump and Vance. We ought to at least plan for it.

    Second, there is a tendency of US alliance defenders to call critics emotional or unrealistic. Yet isn’t the opposite the case? They don’t acknowledge that they have spent their entire careers working closely with US military and intelligence. They no doubt have many friends in the US government. It is the world they are used to. Letting go of it is hard for them, and threatens the relevance of their own knowledge.

    I’m sure Richardson knows a lot about defense and intelligence; far more than I. Yet I am troubled that many of his counterparts in other NATO and NATO allied countries are speaking quite differently about USA now. Either they are wrong, or Richardson and co are wrong.

  38. https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-a-future-plan-on-fuel-should-be-central-to-albanese-governments-reform-agenda-278789
    Grattan on Friday: A future plan on fuel should be central to Albanese government’s reform agenda

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-03/electric-vehicles-rising-in-regions-as-fuel-prices-rise/106515614
    More Australians are switching to electric vehicles as fuel prices rise, including in regional Victoria.
    While uptake is growing, some country drivers say charging infrastructure and lifestyle needs remain a barrier.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-03/one-nation-jason-virgo-australian-sex-party-sa/106516010
    One of the new South Australian One Nation MPs is ex Australian Sex Party, and ex Labor Party. Let’s see how long he lasts in his new party.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/nick-thomas-symonds-britain-eu-point-man-reset-deal-can-be-done-summer/
    Britain’s EU point man says reset deal can be done by summer
    Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds tells POLITICO that rows over youth mobility and tuition fees won’t snag EU-U.K. deal — and confirms plan for alignment will be in May King’s Speech.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/591384/greyhound-racing-to-end-in-august-as-bill-passes
    Greyhound racing in New Zealand to end in August as bill passes, which enables the establishment of a transition agency to oversee the wind‑down of racing and the rehoming of dogs.

  39. Fess:

    The Iran war was never about freeing women and those under theocratic rule. I have no idea why people ever thought it was.

    For decent people, at least, I imagine it was a combination of misguided optimism and a desperate hope that some kind of good might come out of this nightmare, as well as general horror at what we were all seeing happening in Iran leading up to the invasion.

  40. Morgan poll bounciness is well known but I agree that at least the bounciness gives me confidence that Morgan isn’t massaging the data to smooth the results. But never rely on an individual Morgan poll as proof of a bounce or drop.

    @GrannyAnny from previous thread – none of that surprises me, the crossover between One Nation voters and the former Liberal voters who most despised lockdowns and vaccine mandates and other COVID policies and most hated immigrants. I think it was always clear the ON surge was led by the most right wing Liberal voters abandoning ship for a more reliable hard right option in the face of Sussan Ley at least pretending she was trying to tack the Liberals to a more moderate position.

    Those voters always existed, Labor and the Greens and Teals have no chance at winning them, and whether they vote for the Coalition or ON doesn’t matter to me. The key is to win over other types of potential ON voters.

  42. My issue with the views of Richardson and his ilk is casting our largest trading partner as our enemy because the US’s economic hegemony is at risk.

    (I’ll wait for BWs listicle, which is usually just a defence of the unequal treaties)

  44. pied pipersays:
    Friday, April 3, 2026 at 9:38 am
    One nation is on the March in both polls!

    Trump proxy doing well.

    It seems that the ON has stalled at a point that’s kept the cookers at bay.
    Trump’s journey is a good learning experience for those willing to learn!

  45. The US is collapsing,having just surpassed $39T in debt and creating global chaos.

    Dennis Richardson sounds like yesterday’s man.

  47. Leroysays:
    Friday, April 3, 2026 at 10:49 am
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-a-future-plan-on-fuel-should-be-central-to-albanese-governments-reform-agenda-278789
    Grattan on Friday: A future plan on fuel should be central to Albanese government’s reform agenda

    _____________________

    And like Aly, Grattan is a moron for not understanding even the basics of what policy changes have happened on fue this past week – for starters:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-31/fuel-purchasing-powers-could-be-used-for-anything-disrupted/106511520

    This is the problem with the media, both mainstream and “new”, all get so hyper specific on issues of special interests yet absolutely none if them truely understand the transformations being made to our economic institutional architecture.

  48. Trumps appointees are so incredibly incompetent for a reason, loyalty. Yet this incompetence halts his long term ability to follow through on his agenda. Here we are a year in and its all collapsing.

    By any read Trump doesn’t want a free and fair mid term election. And as his house of cards falls in on itself all the people who were positioned to implement this are also falling by the wayside.

    It’ll take time to get the hands back on the reins of power with his newer appointees and this means his attempt at destroying democracy in the US is also coming undone.

    Of course this is all his own incompetent fault.

  49. When is Angus going to release ‘Steam cars’ onto the market?
    Is he planning upon a Stanley Steamer led vehicle market recovery?
    This mode of transport was tried and became obsolete in the early 1900s.
    Since when did an Opposition Leader demand a right of reply to any national address from the Prime Minister?
    If the ABC had said, “No way”, then I doubt whether the other broadcast media, except Sky, would have taken up this address.
    I am glad that in our household we watch SBS World News and ignore the rubbish which now passes as ABC News.
    Interesting that the markets are predicting a change in the Opposition Leader before the end of the year.
    As much as I loathe his politics, Hastie is showing up Taylor for the lightweight, policy-free zone that he inhabits.
    This could be the 21st century version of the Howard / Peacock imbroglio.
    Who is leaking the Lieberals talking points to the government?
    First the secret 2025 Election review and now their Parliamentary and Press talking points.
    It was wonderful parliamentary theatre, on wednesday, when the PM answered an Opposition question, quoting verbatim from one of their documents and when Dopey Dan jumped up to raise another vacuous point of order The PM finished his answer with the repost that this was Opposition Policy, authorised by Taylor.
    Is it my impression that Speaker Milton Dick is about to permanently remove Dopey Dan, from the House, if he continues his ‘point of order’ interruptions to every answer being proffered?

  50. PP, do you keep a straight face as you post all that daily bullshit or do you get so hot, bothered and excited that you have to take a lot of cold showers every day to calm down?

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