I have two poll results to relate, plus a plug for a reupholstered BludgerTrack, where you will now find distinct series under “leadership ratings” for the Sussan Ley and Angus Taylor eras, if eras isn’t too big a word (which it is).
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor up three points to 30%, the Coalition down three to 22.5%, One Nation steady on 23.5% and the Greens steady on 13.5%. Labor’s two-party lead is out from 52.5-47.5 to 56.5-43.5 on previous election preferences, and from 51-49 to 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1562.
• I missed the latest monthly Essential Research poll last week due to preoccupation with the South Australian election. It had Labor up a point to 31%, the Coalition down two to 24%, One Nation up two to 24% (reaching parity with the Coalition for the first time in this series) and the Greens down a point to 10%. The 2PP+ measure shifted from 48-47 in favour of the Coalition to 47-46, these two being the only two-party poll results of any sort since the May 2025 election to have the Coalition ahead. Anthony Albanese was down three on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 51%, while Angus Taylor recorded an above-par debut of 35% approval and 33% disapproval. Further questions focused on foreign affairs, including findings that 26% supported and 42% opposed to the US-Israeli military action against Iran, and 34% supported and 26% opposed Australia’s response. The poll was conducted March 18 to 23 from a sample of 1008.
So Australians support Albanese government response to US-Israel war on Iran is in positive territory to a very difficult situation.
So Australians support Albanese government …
Voters instinctively rally to safety in wartime. Whether this endures will depend on the war, on the responses of the Government and their opponents, and on the economic and strategic fallout from the war.
In my opinion, if the war is much-prolonged – if the economic and strategic consequences become as formidable as seems likely – then attitudes to the conflict and to the antagonists will also change. The US has very clearly committed itself to a course that it cannot see through to completion. The US and Israel started the war but they are not in position to bring it to an end. This discretion is in Iranian hands. They appear to be intent on knocking the US to its knees. They have the tools to do this.
The US has also implicitly pitted itself against China, who are going to be the beneficiaries of the already-commenced US retreat from the Gulf. That first retreat of the US will soon enough also include Europe and may very well also include this country. If Australia wants to buy oil it will either have to agree to Iranian terms or to US terms. Who in their right mind would trust the US? Like every other oil-importing country, we may have to ditch our ties with the US in order to run our economy.
The US is not going to be able to occupy and subdue a country of 90 million or so. In the absence of invasion and conquest – something China will not permit and the Iranians will resist – Iran and its allies will choke the life out of the transnational US-centric economy. As this develops the flow of capital into the US will certainly dry up…and at that point its fundamental insolvency will become apparent to everyone. This is already in progress.
From the guardian blog – https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/apr/02/middle-east-crisis-live-trump-prime-time-address-white-house-iran-war-israel-strait-hormuz#top-of-blog
The guy is going to care so much, knowing he was already marked for death. He will become a shiite martyr. Israel’s leadership face the same if they leave their country.
The US population is sick of supporting murderous Israeli campaigns, the end of their support is not too far away. Hitching yourself to Trump will have repercussions
subgeometer says:
Friday, April 3, 2026 at 1:03 am
No-one is hitched to Trump. The problem for erstwhile allies of the US is to disentangle themselves from the floundering – the flailing – hegemon. The US has revealed itself as a corrupt, rogue state run by criminals and cowards. They have led the US into an irrevocable strategic and economic failure. The more the US struggles the worse will their fate become.
Every country that has been aligned with – acted in support of or as a client of – the US is going to be choked. To release the chokehold countries will have first to disengage from the US. Along with others, we in this country will also be forced to choose. This will be difficult for Australia. We have depended for our safety on the US since Pearl Harbour…for more than 80 years. We are very much conditioned by our lack of independence…by our servility to Imperial strength. But choice is being forced upon us as we watch.
Very late on, but in the previous thread BW and newyboy were extolling the virtues of artillery in the war in Ukraine, noting that it had caused 70-80% of casualties there.
Like so many “fun facts” you hear, its probably true, but useless for learning any lessons.
The better question is what is causing the majority of casualties *now*? And the answer to that is drones. Both sides had lots of artillery at the beginning of the war (as befits a centuries old weapons system), and zero drones. It took 3 years to pivot to new conditions (which is a typical lag during a hot war), to develop new technology, new supply chains, new tactics etc. So for the first three years, overwhelmingly, artillery was doing the killing. But now they have had the necessary time, for the last year, drones have ruled and are currently causing 70%+ of all casualties.
Failing to address this pivot is to make the oft-repeated mistake of “preparing to fight the last war”. One could use the same mistaken line of reasoning to conclude at the end of WW1 that heavy artillery and heavy machineguns ruled (they did cause 80-90% of WW1 combat casualties), and that tanks and aircraft weren’t much of a thing. Of course, the former existed en masse on day one, and the latter took years of development.
Don’t get me wrong – “the answer” is not to forget about artillery and just do drones. There is no one right answer, because every conflict is situationally dependent – who is the aggressor, what is the tactical/operational/strategic environment, force ratios etc etc determine the right mix of systems. So artillery remains important (and the upscaling of European shell production might yet be the decisive “thumb on the scale” in Ukraine’s war for survival). But using stats that cover the whole war, but which ignore developments and lessons learned during that war, are likely to lead to wrong conclusions for future planning.
Good post DPR – “god of modern war” no more
DPR,
The correct answer is “both”.
State of the art – for both sides – in Ukraine is the drone tells the artillery where you are, and then the artillery hits you.
Basically, aerial spotting out to 10km behind the line of contact used to be a rare and precious thing for a ground army. Now it costs a couple of thousand bucks worth of cheap electronics and fiber optic cable – roughly the cost of the artillery barrage, if you’re using cheap ammo.
Trump fires Attorney General Pam Bondi. Todd Blanche is now acting Attorney General.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-pam-bondi-attorney-general/
Noem’s gone, now Bondi. How long before Hegseth gets the boot? Donnie’s starting to fall apart big time. Can repugs build up the courage to slough off the curse of Trump? Ah well, at least he has his tiny one-man band of PP to try and back him up.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-fires-pam-bondi-as-us-attorney-general-20260403-p5zl44.html
https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2026/Apr/Near-700-GW-Surge-in-2025-Proves-Renewable-Energy-Resilience
There’s a graphical summary of the report here:
https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2026/Mar/IRENA_DAT_RE_capacity_highlights_2026.pdf
If you’re looking for a stat for avoided oil use due to global EV uptake, there is this:
https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-energy-security-fall-out-from-fossil-fuel-fragility-to-electric-independence/
Noting DPR’s comment that we should not be fighting the last war, and this comment, both are in my view, exactly right.
Australia needs to develop a complete drone ecosystem: people who can design and innovate around drones, complete internal supply chains for all the parts, a complete manufacturing industry around drones, and drones integrated tactically and strategically in defense doctrine. Ditto missiles.
Australia is making good but limited progress. Positives are the loyal wingman, the manufacture and supply of small drones to Ukraine, and the development of submarine drones. We need, IMO, to do a lot more. Given our good relations with Ukraine, and given Ukraine has live experience of setting up and deploying a drone ecosystem, we have an obvious and willing partner in all of the above.
It is a truism that integration is an absolute bedrock for fighting battles. The modern battlefield integrates reconnaisance platforms, comms, drones, missiles, artillery, manned and unmanned platforms, tanks, and logistics, including medical support. As for land, so for sea and air.
What we don’t need is a Greens Defence Policy that is a national suicide note combined with the Greens nasty party political habit of white anting any and all practical defence initiatives.
.. Paul Krugman .. gotta love him declares the US has lost another war to add to the last 6 it’s lost… about time the US congress admitted they have pissed human potential up against the wall for too long with the massive waste of Human Resources.
I note the manoshere gets a mention..
https://youtu.be/RTy9VNZTtN8
Ps..I hope Aukus gets sunk in the crossfire
Joh Bonkers Bananas would be bursting with pride as the current sickening excuse of a gubmint continues to wreak havoc in Queensland.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/here-we-joh-again-queenslands-new-speech-bans-and-police-powers,20886
There are still commentators in Australia who don’t get it that Trump is a demented, disinhibited and malignant narcissist.
Yesterday we had Paul Daley writing an article urging Albanese to stick it Trump.
Today’s Guardian podcast has a question about Albanese being ‘soft’ on Trump.
Various commentators and the Greens are extolling Spain’s sticking it to Trump. These same people are routinely silent about Spain losing $30 billion in trade as a direct consequences. That is a lot of spanish lives ruined right there. And for what? Trump’s behaviour has not changed a single bit because of Spain’s interventions. It is not how malignant narcissists work.
They also extol the virtues of Carney’s approach to shirtfronting Trump. Canada’s unemployment rate is 6.8%. The same people who praise Carney are dead silent about the consequences.
Malignant actually means malignant. Trump is increasingly vengeful. Not less vengeful. Not the same vengeful. Increasingly vengeful.
As his narcissism is increasingly threatened and as his dementia is increasing his disinhibitions, Trump is becoming increasingly dangerous. Not less dangerous. More dangerous.
As Noem and Bondi have discovered. And, I am afraid, as Iran is about to discover.
A few hours wasted on PB yesterday because of this.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/life/entertainment/movies/2026/04/02/bond-jessie-buckley?
I was not extolling the virtues of artillery but noting the fact that it is causing three quarters of all casualties. I think artillery is a terrible weapon and its consequences are horrific. I would be very happy for Australian never to have to use artillery ever again.
One test of your theory about the ongoing significance of artillery would be whether either of the Russian or Ukrainian military commanders would consider withdrawing their artillery from the battlefields.
Your general comments about the increasing significance of drones and missiles is, of course, 100% correct.
Time to dig out my copy of
for it’s annual viewing on Saturday night.
Trump’s attempt to change the US electoral system is DOA…
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/in-bad-news-for-trump-judge-who-blocked-his-last-anti-voting-order-will-hear-challenge-to-new-one/
Donald Trump has ordered a 100 per cent tariff on pharmaceuticals manufactured outside the United States, a move that could have a big impact on Australia. Australia exported $US1.32bn of pharmaceuticals to the US in 2025, United Nations COMTRADE data shows.
The US Supreme Court ruled in February the President’s sweeping ‘liberation day’ tariffs were illegal, however the pharmaceuticals levy has been enacted under different legislation.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/donald-trump-slaps-100-tariff-on-pharmaceuticals-hitting-australian-industry-hard/news-story/703b31296d9824ca6feca6342610afa6
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/02/hegseth-ousts-army-general-randy-george/
Isn’t there a war going on? Jeez these people are just hopeless!
And Bondi’s gone too.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/02/trump-fires-bondi-doj/
Although Blanche isn’t anywhere near better.
Long piece on Denis Richardson in the SMH today – he has a message for those who want to break ties with Trump’s USA…
https://www.smh.com.au/national/my-chat-with-dennis-richardson-was-very-relaxed-suddenly-his-laid-back-tone-vanished-20260331-p5zkbw.html
And Gabbard could be next, if Hegseth doesn’t go first. Although I’m sure Trump will want to confer with Putin first before nominating another DNI.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/02/trump-tulsi-gabbard-intelligence-chief
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/us/politics/trump-fires-bondi-attorney-general.html?smid=url-share
For many however, this will forever be Bondi’s legacy:
https://www.facebook.com/lisandravazquezphoto/videos/pam-bondi-fired/1835154190491268/?wtsid=rdr_0oegDyZVGzSYf9KRR
World News & Politics Patrol:
Trump: U.S. will bomb Iran “back to stone ages” over next 2-3 weeks: https://www.axios.com/2026/04/02/trump-bomb-iran-stone-ages-power-plants
‘Be serious… don’t speak every day’: Macron criticises Trump approach to Iran war: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevk0e4ykwko
Macron says it is unrealistic to open Hormuz Strait by force: https://www.reuters.com/world/macron-says-it-is-unrealistic-open-hormuz-strait-by-force-2026-04-02/
Iran to allow safe passage of Philippine ships, fuel supply through Strait of Hormuz, says Manila: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-allow-safe-passage-philippine-ships-fuel-supply-through-strait-hormuz-says-2026-04-02/
Austria denies US use of airspace for Iran military operations: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/austria-denied-us-access-its-airspace-gulf-military-operations-reports-newspaper-2026-04-02/
Trump threatened Europe over Strait of Hormuz, with weapons for Ukraine as bargaining chip, FT reports: https://kyivindependent.com/trump-threatened-to-halt-weapons-to-ukraine-unless-europe-helped-open-strait-of-hormuz-ft-reports/
Hegseth ousts Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hegseth-ousts-army-chief-of-staff-gen-randy-george/#amp_tfFrom2025124saoh17751625946274referrerhttps3A2F2Fwwwgooglecomampsharehttps3A2F2Fwwwcbsnewscom2Fnews2Fhegseth-ousts-army-chief-of-staff-gen-randy-george2F
Trump ousts Pam Bondi as attorney general in major shakeup: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/pam-bondi-fired-news-trump-b2951084.html
The White House posted and then rushed to delete an hour-long recording of an event with President Donald Trump that captured him lashing out at the Supreme Court after justices signaled expressed skepticism about his birthright citizenship case: https://www.thedailybeast.com/white-house-scrambles-to-wipe-trump-easter-meltdown-supreme-court-justices-footage/
Trump says it’s ‘not possible’ for the U.S. to pay for Medicaid, Medicare and day care: ‘We’re fighting wars’: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-not-possible-us-pay-medicaid-medicare-daycare-re-fighting-w-rcna266381
Kristi Noem husband’s cross-dressing was ‘an open secret in DC’: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/kristi-noem-husband-white-house-secret-b2950834.html
Colorado court throws out election denier Tina Peters’ 9-year sentence for tampering with election equipment: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/colorado-court-throws-election-denier-tina-peters-sentence-trump-rcna266421
Trump’s Pentagon Is Undercounting Troop Casualties in Middle East: https://newrepublic.com/post/208551/pentagon-iran-troop-casualties-donald-trump
Trump Is Doing Structural Damage to American Intelligence: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-is-doing-structural-damage-american-intelligence-cia
Charges filed against bounty hunters who drew ‘replica firearms’ at anti-ICE protesters: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/04/01/charges-filed-against-bounty-hunters-who-drew-replica-firearms-at-antiice-protesters
TikTok pulls Israeli ultranationalist’s account for breach of hate speech rules: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/02/tiktok-israeli-ultranationalist-account-west-bank-settlers
Ukraine is gaining territory. This is a good description of what is going on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ot_48WaZjpk
Hegseth fires Top Army General
Pete Hegseth asks US Army chief Randy George to step down, retire immediately
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has asked Army Chief of Staff Randy George to step down and retire immediately. The reason for the move remains unclear, but it comes amid a broader reshuffle of top military leadership.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/us-news/story/us-defense-secretary-pete-hegseth-asks-army-chief-randy-george-to-step-down-retire-immediately-reuters-2890943-2026-04-03
U.S. will bomb Iran “back to stone ages”, where they belong, over next 2-3 weeks
So much for liberating the under trodden people of Iran from their despotic yoke.
Is there any greater crime than destroying a people, virtually on a whim (or on Bibi’s instructions)
Israels talking about bombing states back to the stone age before Trump took that sort of rhetoric. Public opinion will blame Israel for this war. Israeli Journalist Gideon Levy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXUAeFvZ-jY
Spain is in a customs union with the EU so that’s not how it works. But of course sometimes there’s a price to be paid for defending the common interests of all humanity. Nobody thought Albo would close Pine Gap, but it was still a surprise to see him cheering on this world historical clusterfuck the day it launched – try to think of a more embarrassing moment in ALP history
Good riddance. Rick Wilson called her ‘B*tch’
The Iran war was never about freeing women and those under theocratic rule. I have no idea why people ever thought it was.
C@tmomma, where are you?
From the beginning it was an illegal war. It was never ‘moral’ war was as Greg Sheridan said on Insiders.
HH DP
TRUMP WANTS TO FIGHT WARS. HENCE, American government cannot afford Medicaid, Medicare and day care
it was still a surprise to see him cheering on this world historical clusterfuck the day it launched – try to think of a more embarrassing moment in ALP history
Great question – one thought: having the White Australia Policy as the first plank of its platform for the first ten years of its federal existence.
In the current situation, party members who so virulently opposed George W’s illegal invasion of Iraq, did nothing or scrambled to make excuses for the abomination.
Fess
I too think Gabbard is next.
Her or Kash Patel.
Interested if anyone has any further information about the Oz troops in the ME. I posted an AI description last night and so far haven’t found anything to suggest it wasn’t reasonably accurate despite being a ‘spur of the moment’ question to Google.
So what did Australia actually say on 28th February 2026, when the war first started?
Cheerleading? All the way with DJT?
https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/statement-iran#:~:text=28%20February%202026,retain%20power%20is%20without%20legitimacy.
Economically speaking, the strait of Hormuz needs to open in next two weeks, otherwise the global economy is stuffed.
Meanwhile The ramifications of what has occurred with this imbroglio will take years.
Trump stop getting rid of hotties!
CSL will not be affected by pharma its products are in the right category to avoid tariff .
Both those Trump departees did a fantastic job in law and order and lowest homicide rate since 1900 in USA and sealed the borders and smashed drugs in USA.
Did well ladies!
Can you cry on my shoulder?
If he gets rid of sexy Caroline I will go beserk!
Re strait Iran will be crippled if it does not reopen as its economy is a basketcase without all the oil revenues.Trump knows this,and USA in surplus of oil revealed yesterday highest in 3 years.
Winning!
Article from the Weatherzone website – it’s a much better explainer than the usual sensationalist MSM offerings.
Re drones in the ADF: BW has mentioned the RAAF and RAN. The Army also operates a variety of unmanned air vehicles (UAV) and smaller drones.
Infantry battalions are equipped with smaller drones for tactical reconnaissance. There’s a multitude of drones in use, many of them locally made .
The Army’s 20th Regiment at Enoggera is equipped with a variety of UAV, used for intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance (ISTAR). It was formed about 20 years ago and has deployed to East Timor, the Solomon Islands, Iraq and Afghanistan. It’s part of the 16th Aviation Brigade and operates several largish UAV, as well as traditional radar targetting systems.
Trump ordered destruction of east wing so he could build a bunker at cost to taxpayer,
Although he his mad and bad, and he is not long for world. He wants the Trump legacy to continue, and after the Iran imbroglio his whole family including grandchildren have a target on their backs, and Iranians have very long memories.
What is the saying, revenge is a dish best served cold.
RQ
Reddit via ChatGPT
Noem is not actually fired. She is moved into a cushy job, which doesn’t have public profile.
She was called ugly fascist b**ch.
Winning!

Winning!

Iran capitulated overnight needs the oil revenues…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/iran-war-oman-hormuz-strait.html
Trump knows this.
Winning!