Federal polls: Newspoll, RedBridge Group, Fox & Hedgehog (open thread)

New federal polls reach variable conclusions as to exactly how badly the Coalition is doing relative to One Nation.

Three new polls of federal voting intention:

• The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor down a point to 31%, the Coalition up one to 21%, One Nation down one to 26% and the Greens up one to 12%. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 39% and up two on disapproval to 57%, while Angus Taylor is down two to 35% and up one to 42%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 45-37 to 44-36. As with other recent Newspoll results showing One Nation leading the Coalition, no two-party preferred result is provided. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1232.

• The monthly RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll for the Financial Review sets new records for One Nation, up a point to 29%, and the Coalition, down two to 17%, with Labor steady on 32% and the Greens up one to 13%. Labor holds two-party leads over both One Nation and the Coalition of 53-47, respectively in from 54-46 and steady. Anthony Albanese’s favourable rating is down three to 29% and his unfavourable rating is up one to 46%; Angus Taylor is steady on 19% and up two to 22% (24% had not heard of him, only one point down on a month ago); and Pauline Hanson is up two to 38% and up three to 43%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese down a point to 33%, Taylor up four to 14% and Hanson steady on 23%. The poll finds 61% holding Donald Trump most responsible for rising petrol prices compared with 14% for Anthony Albanese and 16% for neither. It was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1003.

• The monthly Fox & Hedgehog poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor steady on 30%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation down two to 23% and the Greens up one to 13%. The pollster’s three-party preferred measure has Labor up two to 46%, the Coalition steady on 27% and One Nation down two to 27%. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition is unchanged at 51-49, and its lead over One Nation is out from 53-47 to 56-44. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 49%, Angus Taylor is down two to 24% and up one to 24%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 40-35 to 39-35. The government’s handling of the fuel crisis is rated good by 18% and poor by 57%, but 55% hold disruption from war in the Middle East as the factor most responsible compared with 24% for the federal government and 15% for stations and suppliers. The full release has regular personal ratings on a range of political figures other than the two leaders. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1810.

The Australia Institute also has polls from three teal seats conducted as part of its campaign for a gas exports tax. When a forced-response follow-up for the initially undecided is included, the results are as follows:

• In Kooyong, independent Monique Ryan 29.7%, Liberals 34.8%; One Nation 13.4%; Labor 12.8% and Greens 5.7%. A respondent-allocated two-candidate preferred result has Ryan and the Liberals at 50-50. The poll was conducted March 17 and 18 from a sample of 1184.

• In Mackellar, independent Sophie Scamps 31.4%, Liberal 25.0%, One Nation 21.7%, Labor 14.7%, Greens 4.7%, with Scamps holding a 56.7-43.3 two-party lead over the Liberals. The poll was conducted March 17 to 19 from a sample of 1046.

• In Wentworth, independent Allegra Spender 30.6%, Liberal 25.7%, One Nation 16.3%, Labor 16.4%, Greens 7.9%, with Spender holding a 59.4-40.6 two-party lead over the Liberals. The poll was conducted March 17 to 19 from a sample of 1190.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,230 thoughts on “Federal polls: Newspoll, RedBridge Group, Fox & Hedgehog (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 45
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  1. Teals + Greens = 18% of the federal vote. At some point the Labor Party will need to show them the due deference they are willing to show One Nation.

  6. FFS

    You’re right; cause as brilliant the result was for the ALP, the last election is irrelevant in terms of the next election.

    Howard was given full power, and then lost power and his own seat at the next election.

    I hope there are some massive accomplishments in the next two years, as there’s no guarantee of time in office beyond that for the ALP

  7. The RedBridge poll has a finding that 15% approve and 70% disapprove of Donald Trump. I’m not sure if I’m allowed to share the full document, but the breakdowns are interesting: there is surprisingly little variation by region, education and age cohort. Only by gender (9% and 78% among women, 23% and 62% among men) and, most of all, voting intention (36% and 40% among One Nation voters).

  8. Stupid Albo why hasn’t he pulled the “make fuel cheap” lever. What a jerk.

    Okay but did he really need to clap like a trained seal while Donny was pulling the “make fuel expensive” lever?

  12. 2028 federal election ,
    With the swing against the federal lib/nats and possibility of one nation being mainly a threat taking primary votes from the lib/nats in the 42 seats , Lib/nats current hold

    Federal labor government could once again be making history .

    By increasing its majority into 3rd term, and 2 federal elections in a row, the possibility of retaining the seats they hold and gaining more , to be the first federal government to reach 100 seats or more in the house of reps

  13. FFS says:
    Monday, March 30, 2026 at 12:27 am
    That’s the thing about politics. The last election is irrelevant.

    _________

    You may want to reconsider this statement. The last election is the most important election in politics. It is the one that decides the government of the day!

  14. William Bowe says:
    Monday, March 30, 2026 at 2:03 am
    The RedBridge poll has a finding that 15% approve and 70% disapprove of Donald Trump. I’m not sure if I’m allowed to share the full document, but the breakdowns are interesting: there is surprisingly little variation by region, education and age cohort. Only by gender (9% and 78% among women, 23% and 62% among men) and, most of all, voting intention (36% and 40% among One Nation voters).

    __________

    Very interesting and somewhat unnerving. I would have expected greater sociodemographic variation.

  16. The Australian Electoral Commission will mount an intensive voter education blitz ahead of the Farrer byelection, warning a “congested” information environment and rising misinformation could undermine confidence in Australia’s preferential voting system.

    The move comes amid a spike in informal voting in parts of the country and a political push from minor parties and conservatives to overhaul how preferences are allocated.

    NSW – where preferential voting is optional at a state level – recorded the highest informality rate at the last federal election, at 8.06 per cent – a slight increase on the previous poll. The seat of Farrer, which includes regional towns and cities including Albury, Deniliquin and Griffith, sat even higher at 9.03 per cent. Officials fear the byelection could see that climb further if a crowded field produces an unwieldy ballot paper.

    An AEC spokesperson said the commission was stepping up efforts to ensure voters understood how to cast a valid ballot and how preferences flow under the system, saying there was a “clear and increasing” requirement to provide information about how Australia’s preferential voting system works for federal House of Representatives contests.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/aec-launches-blitz-to-save-farrer-from-the-informal-bin-20260327-p5zj7f.html

  17. Scott, tongue in cheek, your optimistic election posts are starting to feel like the Keys to Power. Useful right up until they were not 🙂

  18. William Bowe says:
    Monday, March 30, 2026 at 2:03 am
    Trump supporters

    36% and 40% among One Nation voters

    As I keep saying ON are made up of the 30% of Australians that are outright idiots.. The same 30% that exists everywhere. They have always been amongst us, the sooner pollsters ( just lump them in other) & MSM stop giving them the time of day the better

  19. MI

    At the last election, Scott’s predictions topped the board.

    Who knows? Perhaps steadiness and reliability will trump the clown with a flamethrower on the next election day

  21. Mostly Interested says:
    Monday, March 30, 2026 at 6:56 am
    Scott, tongue in cheek, your optimistic election posts are starting to feel like the Keys to Power. Useful right up until they were not

    __________

    Scott may have plugged in an increase in the number of seats for his prediction 😉

  22. Abc and Redbridge showing some bias? Surely not Kos salad once had ties with labor yes ?
    Abc, they declared the first one nation seat win in SA miles later than anyone else.
    One nation is the Trump proxy in Australia,me thinks some of these pollsters need to ask different people and survey larger samples.Laziness or bias?

    Some balance to this war…..

    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tanvi-ratna-one-war-trump-breaking-middle-easts-old-power-structure

  23. pied piper says:
    Monday, March 30, 2026 at 7:12 am

    Abc and Redbridge showing some bias? Surely not Kos salad once had ties with labor yes ?
    Abc well they declared the first one nation seat win in SA miles later than anyone else.
    One nation is the Trump proxy in Australia,me thinks some of these pollsters need to ask different people and survey larger samples.

    Bwahahaha

  24. Polling in Russia is fraught with consequences if you are seen to be making the wrong choice.

    However this long write up on 2 recent polls is worth a look for those interested in the subject

    The share of respondents in the VTsIOM poll saying they trust Putin declined to 75%, down from 76.7%, based on figures from state-run pollster VTsIOM. Approval of his job performance slipped to 70.1%, a fall of 1.9 points from the previous week. Both indicators mark their weakest levels since February 20, 2022, just days before Russia launched its invasion.

    Negative sentiment has also edged higher. Around 20.1% of respondents said they explicitly distrust Putin, while 18.3% disapprove of his performance — the highest levels recorded since the conflict began.

    The findings, based on surveys conducted between March 19 and 22, signal a gradual shift in public attitudes as the war enters its fifth year and economic conditions tighten. A separate poll by the independent Levada Center, published on March 3, found that 67% of respondents favour moving towards peace negotiations.

    “Public fatigue is the reason for the ratings stagnation,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, a Moscow-based political analyst. “At the practical level, everyone is simply surviving,” he said, adding that widespread internet outages have added to the discontent.

    https://www.intellinews.com/russians-trust-in-putin-falls-to-lowest-level-since-ukraine-invasion-434253/#google_vignette

  25. William Bowe says:
    Monday, March 30, 2026 at 2:03 am

    The RedBridge poll has a finding that 15% approve and 70% disapprove of Donald Trump. I’m not sure if I’m allowed to share the full document, but the breakdowns are interesting: there is surprisingly little variation by region, education and age cohort. Only by gender (9% and 78% among women, 23% and 62% among men) and, most of all, voting intention (36% and 40% among One Nation voters).

    Rural and regional communities got hit early and hit hard by Trump’s fuel/fertilizer crises. The dots between the SoH closure and Trump are obvious to even low information voters.

  26. The manosphere is turning on Trump. So he’s managed to lose Latinos and now the podcast bros.

    About half an hour into Episode 694 of the Flagrant podcast, and after a lively debate over manscaping methods, Andrew Schulz leaned back into the couch and brought the chin-wag to a screeching halt. “Are you guys, like—do you feel existential anxiety about the war?” he asked his co-hosts. Schulz seemed to be feeling some. “Americans can’t fucking afford health care,” he said later. “They don’t care about what’s happening in Iran!” War hawks have been angling for years for this war, he added. With President Trump, “they found a guy stupid enough to do it.”

    Schulz voted for Trump in 2024, after having him on the podcast—a move that angered a lot of liberals. But the 42-year-old comedian was never what one might call “full MAGA,” and he isn’t explicitly Republican. Instead, Schulz is representative of a not-insignificant slice of Trump’s voting base: nonideological guys who love free speech and are drawn to politicians who seem anti-establishment and, maybe more important, anti-woke. (The podcaster-comedians Joe Rogan, Theo Von, Tim Dillon, and Dave Smith all fit somewhere in this camp.) With their help, Trump pulled off his improbable comeback.

    But a lot has changed since November 2024. Schulz and many of his fellow manosphere commentators seem to feel—by varying degrees—duped by the president they helped elect. Some have been airing those grievances for months, starting with Trump’s handling of the Epstein files and, later, the killing of American citizens at the hands of federal agents in Minneapolis. To Schulz and others like him, a brand-new war in the Middle East is a betrayal so massive, you almost have to laugh. “The only shot you have at a good life right now is to hasten the rapture,” Tim Dillon, another podcaster and comedian, said on a recent show. “The foreign and economic policy of our country currently is the rapture.”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2026/03/iran-war-trump-maga/686571/?gift=zYCTBrO_7y7KHmiTPdBdg_EF_uu09J1ld5VzXfgcuT4

  27. Mostly Interested
    The pressure is on the federal lib/ nats to pick up ground, similar thought bubbles to one nation is not going to do it.

    Also the fed lib/ nats main chance is politically splitting from the propaganda media units who are controlling them , they don’t have the political courage to do that.

  28. The Labor Government succeeded in gaining considerable concessions from the EU for farmers in the EU Trade Agreement.

    The NFF responded with a campaign of excoriation.

    Just weeks later the NFF is begging National Cabinet for taxpayer-funded farm fuel and farm fertilizer subsidies. McIntyre might just be wondering whether slagging Labor was really such an excellent idea.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/30/farmers-plead-for-tax-breaks-diesel-guarantees-and-help-buying-fertiliser-as-national-cabinet-meets-on-fuel-crisis

  29. Bizzcan summarised the regional fuel shortage pretty well a couple of days. The independent fuel retailers that failed to lock in long-term contracts are now struggling to access supplies.

    In the last global fuel crisis a similar thing happened with small electricity retailers. Those that hadn’t bothered to hedge their risk by locking in contacts went broke, those who did are still around today.

    That’s the nature of business, I guess. The reckless can prosper for a while but it is those that manage risk prudently who persist.

  30. In what is no surprise after jacking up energy bills by 37% and spending billions on so called cheaper renewables labor has run out of money,as the transition without nukes or lots more gas is too expensive..
    https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/zero-for-15-labor-s-flagship-renewable-scheme-hits-a-standstill-20260318-p5p9g2

    Btw all those lefties saying Trump is taco, have forgotten he is ego driven and will go harder in Iran partly to shove it to them.

  31. You’re lying again, pp. Private industry builds renewables and have never expressed interest in building nuclear in Australia.

  33. Fact check…..

    https://energyfactcheck.com.au/2025/04/22/do-renewable-energy-projects-get-more-government-subsidies-than-other-energy-projects/

    The fairies at the bottom of the garden are paying for fed labors $22 billion taxpayer funded future failing renewables spend, as mentioned in the budget not the taxpayer.
    Inflation anyone?.Meanwhile 37% increase in electricity prices how much higher will this go ?

    ABS inflation stats show increase in elec prices.

  34. Boerwar says:
    Monday, March 30, 2026 at 7:22 am

    The Labor Government succeeded in gaining considerable concessions from the EU for farmers in the EU Trade Agreement.
    ———————-
    What?

    The exports of beef will be significantly less then they were years ago. It is like the 1984 chocolate rations.

    It is a completely stupid trade agreement only a mob of idiots would sign. Oh Labor politicians did sign it.

  35. Did you read the fact check, pp?

    Comparing the industries side-by-side isn’t straightforward, as the contexts and stages of development differ. However, it is safe to say that while the renewable industry does benefit from federal and state mechanisms to build and mature the market, the fossil fuel industry currently receives billions in subsidies.

    The Capacity Investment Scheme you are referring to:

    … does not directly cost the government beyond administrating and regulating it but provides an indirect incentive.

    https://energyfactcheck.com.au/2025/04/22/do-renewable-energy-projects-get-more-government-subsidies-than-other-energy-projects/

    The $22bn scheme you mention is the Future Made In Australia policy, I presume. It has nothing to do with building renewable generation.

  36. pp you think posting a ‘fact check’ that concludes that fossil fuel has received more subsidies than renewables supports the rest of your post? It doesn’t.

  37. When you assume you make an ass out of u and me.

    Fed Labor gov with great fanfare announced it is spending $22 billion on renewables.
    Meanwhile a few million visa holders bought in under labor fed gov are hindering reaching targets.
    The first bills are now coming after labor lifted the elec rebates also paid for by those long suffering fairies at the bottom of that garden not the taxpayer!

    Below.. Abs and Labor gov rebate policy which they implemented over years.

    One nation says Thankyou!

  40. Omar Comin’ says:
    Monday, March 30, 2026 at 7:57 am

    pp you think posting a ‘fact check’ that concludes that fossil fuel has received more subsidies than renewables supports the rest of your post? It doesn’t.
    ——————————–

    LOL fact check. Then you see who runs the website and did the fact check. the heavily biased “clean energy council”

    Yea I believe everything the minerals industry tells me as well. The smoking industry as well.

  41. Jolly Jumbuck says:
    Monday, March 30, 2026 at 7:56 am

    Boerwar says:
    Monday, March 30, 2026 at 7:22 am

    The Labor Government succeeded in gaining considerable concessions from the EU for farmers in the EU Trade Agreement.
    ———————-
    What?

    The exports of beef will be significantly less then they were years ago.

    Beef up from 4,000 tons to 35,000 tons. Wine, no barriers at all. It goes on and on.

  42. JJ the smoking industry, as distinct from the tobacco industry, is an industry comprised of individuals of the highest integrity, imho.

  43. World News & Politics Patrol:

    Zelenskyy: Russia took satellite images of US air base in Saudi Arabia three times before Iranian strike: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/03/29/8027701/

    European allies say Russia is helping Iran more than the U.S. has acknowledged: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-iran-war-european-allies-intelligence-help/

    Iran ready to face US ground invasion, top lawmaker says: https://caliber.az/en/post/iran-ready-to-face-us-ground-invasion-top-lawmaker-says

    Rift deepens between Iran’s president and Guards chief over war, economy: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603288722

    Key E-3 AWACS Damaged in Iranian Attack on Saudi Air Base: https://www.airandspaceforces.com/key-e-3-awacs-aircraft-damaged-iranian-attack-saudi-air-base/

    Starmer’s popularity boosted by Iran war rift with Trump, poll shows: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/starmer-trump-uk-iran-us-war-poll-b2947803.html

    Cruz, Huckabee criticize Israel for blocking Latin patriarch on Palm Sunday: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5806714-huckabee-cruz-criticize-israel-palm-sunday/

    Pope Leo: God ‘does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war’: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5806337-pope-rejects-war-prayers-iran-palm-sunday/

    No Kings draw estimated 8 million in largest single-day U.S. nonviolent protest: https://kval.com/news/local/no-kings-protests-draw-estimated-8-million-in-largest-single-day-us-demonstrations

    A month into Iran, the GOP’s political reality sinks in: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/29/iran-war-trump-gop-midterms-prices-00849116

    Pakistan hosts regional powers for Iran talks, with focus on Hormuz proposals: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-hosts-regional-powers-iran-talks-with-focus-hormuz-proposals-2026-03-29/

  44. “David Pocock, the Coalition, Greens and crossbench will push the government today for urgent reforms to the aged care home support program, which the group says is leaving older Australians worse off.

    Two thirds of the Senate signed a letter to Labor to for reforms, including restoring human oversight to aged care assessments, and recategorising showering, dressing and continence as clinical care to stop older Australians paying “excessive costs for basic hygiene”.

    Speaking to Sky News, Pocock says that since the government implemented a “no worse off” principle when passing aged care reforms in 2024, older Australians are being price gouged and some are going without essential supports.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2026/mar/30/australia-politics-live-national-cabinet-fuel-prices-oil-crisis-labor-anthony-albanese-chris-bowen-coalition-angus-taylor-ntwnfb?page=with%3Ablock-69c991bf8f08a9060e5eca4f#block-69c991bf8f08a9060e5eca4f

  46. The entire 941 reserve battalion, which includes graduates of Netzah Yehuda, has been suspended from operations following footage showing a CNN correspondent being attacked by soldiers. According to sources involved in the details, this was done to create deterrence among the soldiers. The battalion’s fighters were reportedly shocked by the collective punishment, which they claim came directly as an instruction from the Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir: https://www.ynetnews.com/article/9bovfgn1v

  49. Morning all. Thanks for the morning roundup HH.

    Looking at the mid east news it is hard not to agree with George Brands that Netanyahu has suckered Trump. Having goaded Trump into joining Israel in striking Iran, he has left USA to do all the fighting and defence of Gulf states in the subsequent war. Meanwhile the main effort for the Israeli armed forces has switched to invading southern Lebanon.
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/29/netanyahu-announces-expansion-of-security-buffer-zone-in-south-lebanon

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