Three new polls of federal voting intention:
• The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor down a point to 31%, the Coalition up one to 21%, One Nation down one to 26% and the Greens up one to 12%. Anthony Albanese is down one on approval to 39% and up two on disapproval to 57%, while Angus Taylor is down two to 35% and up one to 42%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 45-37 to 44-36. As with other recent Newspoll results showing One Nation leading the Coalition, no two-party preferred result is provided. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1232.
• The monthly RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll for the Financial Review sets new records for One Nation, up a point to 29%, and the Coalition, down two to 17%, with Labor steady on 32% and the Greens up one to 13%. Labor holds two-party leads over both One Nation and the Coalition of 53-47, respectively in from 54-46 and steady. Anthony Albanese’s favourable rating is down three to 29% and his unfavourable rating is up one to 46%; Angus Taylor is steady on 19% and up two to 22% (24% had not heard of him, only one point down on a month ago); and Pauline Hanson is up two to 38% and up three to 43%. A three-way preferred prime minister question has Albanese down a point to 33%, Taylor up four to 14% and Hanson steady on 23%. The poll finds 61% holding Donald Trump most responsible for rising petrol prices compared with 14% for Anthony Albanese and 16% for neither. It was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1003.
• The monthly Fox & Hedgehog poll for the News Corp tabloids has Labor steady on 30%, the Coalition down one to 23%, One Nation down two to 23% and the Greens up one to 13%. The pollster’s three-party preferred measure has Labor up two to 46%, the Coalition steady on 27% and One Nation down two to 27%. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition is unchanged at 51-49, and its lead over One Nation is out from 53-47 to 56-44. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 30% and up two on disapproval to 49%, Angus Taylor is down two to 24% and up one to 24%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 40-35 to 39-35. The government’s handling of the fuel crisis is rated good by 18% and poor by 57%, but 55% hold disruption from war in the Middle East as the factor most responsible compared with 24% for the federal government and 15% for stations and suppliers. The full release has regular personal ratings on a range of political figures other than the two leaders. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1810.
The Australia Institute also has polls from three teal seats conducted as part of its campaign for a gas exports tax. When a forced-response follow-up for the initially undecided is included, the results are as follows:
• In Kooyong, independent Monique Ryan 29.7%, Liberals 34.8%; One Nation 13.4%; Labor 12.8% and Greens 5.7%. A respondent-allocated two-candidate preferred result has Ryan and the Liberals at 50-50. The poll was conducted March 17 and 18 from a sample of 1184.
• In Mackellar, independent Sophie Scamps 31.4%, Liberal 25.0%, One Nation 21.7%, Labor 14.7%, Greens 4.7%, with Scamps holding a 56.7-43.3 two-party lead over the Liberals. The poll was conducted March 17 to 19 from a sample of 1046.
• In Wentworth, independent Allegra Spender 30.6%, Liberal 25.7%, One Nation 16.3%, Labor 16.4%, Greens 7.9%, with Spender holding a 59.4-40.6 two-party lead over the Liberals. The poll was conducted March 17 to 19 from a sample of 1190.
I dont know Omar; all I know is that Labor at the election had a first pref vote of 34.56%, and less then a year later its now between 32 high or 27 low, and 2pp 55.22% to between 54 and 51 percent.
And again, thats being helped by drop kick oppositions on the right cannibalising themselves; if interest rates reach the 6 by June/July, then if we take the average mortgage of $694,000 to $736,000 then mortgage owners are going to be forking 500 plus extra into their repayments monthly, not even getting started on flow on effects for food and other necessities.
The poll finds 61% holding Donald Trump most responsible for rising petrol prices compared with 14% for Anthony Albanese and 16% for neither. It was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1003.
Unlike that shit from Sky News After Dark pulse poll or whatever they call it blaming Albo instead.
Good to see the Greens on the up as the party of peace.
Stupid Albo why hasn’t he pulled the “make fuel cheap” lever. What a jerk.
AFR: Mining giant Rio Tinto has launched legal action against the US government’s illegal tariff regime at the same time as it tries to secure political support in Washington, DC for a new copper mine in Arizona. Rio told the US Court of International Trade on March 20 that it wanted a refund for the extra monies paid over the past year, following February’s Supreme Court ruling against the validity of President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs.
Those 3 Teal seat poll are an interesting footnote to tonight’s poll dump. In all three:
Liberal down 10%
Teal IND down 6%
ON up approx 15%
ALP up 2-3%
Checking in on another international poll, wow, Mark Carney’s Liberals in Canada have opened up a big lead against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives over March.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_46th_Canadian_federal_election
Looking at the numbers above, specifically change since last poll a month ago:
Let’s see:
* Coalition +1, One Nation -1. Net change Right 0.
* Labor -1, Green +1. Net change Centre-Left 0.
Presumably no net change for Someone Else.
Margin of error (rounded) 3%.
In summary, no change. In particular, the War seems to have had no effect on Australian Federal voting intentions so far.
GoW the greens recently called for the government to override the independent reserve bank on interest rates, but it doesn’t seem to have produced a surge for them. Perhaps instead of focusing on causing blackouts and extremely high energy prices they should concentrate on vilifying immigrants and calling vaccines the work of the devil – then they could get a big surge like one nation.
Pretty close alignment with the Demos AU MRP poll seat forecasts, though Demos AU has the IND vote a bit lower and Liberal a bit higher
Oh that’s interesting, that Sky News video I linked earlier about the reaction to Moira Deeming losing preselection has been taken down, made private.
Methinks the situation among the Victorian Liberals might be particularly sensitive at this moment.
The poll is not good for ALP. My worry is that are straight out getting around 45% PV.
As I’m sure you know perfectly well, the one and only reason Nadia left this forum was C@tmomma.
@Ven at 10:06pm
Well, there’s still 2 years to go until the next election, so we’ll see how things play out.
I will be worried for Labor if they fall into the 20’s and One Nation rises to the 30’s and stay that way by this time next year though.
Hanson approval rating:
Approve 41%
Disapprove 36%
Neutral/Unsure 22%
Never Heard Of 1%
(source: Fox & Hedgehog poll)
Big Gina’s dollars making dividends I see.
What does this refer to? I can’t find anything from the YouGov poll on petrol prices.
Are there any equivalent polling figures for Hanson over the last 10 or 20 years?
Ven @
One interpretation of the poll voting intention is:
* Centre+left: 31+12 = 43
* Right: 21+26 = 47
The worry would be if the Coalition and One Nation tightly exchanged preferences, in which case they would have the game sown up. That hasn’t been happening so far. One Nation votes are a pretty undisciplined lot.
So the Teals drive in the stake, then One Nation sets the Coalition on fire.
Now that both the Liberals and Nationals are minority parties, the question is where will the Liberals and Nationals preference?
WB
It’s in the Fin article text relating to the Redbridge poll
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/one-nation-nears-labor-as-coalition-vote-hits-record-low-20260329-p5zjmk
@Griff at 10:30pm
Running estimate is that Liberals will preference One Nation against Labor by about 60-40, while Nationals would preference One Nation vs Labor by about 85-15.
Might have to wait until the Victorian state election to see if that plays true though.
A bit of a federal poll boost after a lopsided South Australian election. Pretty much to be expected. I wonder how long this bump will last for.
Thanks Omar, but I was referring to the YouGov Sky News Pulse poll.
Sorry WB…I should learn to read the post
Considering the plethora of domestic and international political issues, the CoL, wealth inequality, housing affordability, the wars, technological changes, energy sources and self serving media the efforts of Labor and Mr Albanese seem to be appreciated by a solid block of voters.
The ON polling is mindboggling in its growth and somewhat worrying considering its leaders, the general nature and non specific policy paradigms and the anonymity of its unselected candidates..
The LNP coalition, the Liberals Party and the Nationals did the hard work themselves to find themselves in their predicament.
The Greens and the assortment of Teals are niche elements. Both will deny this probably but the numbers are remarkably similar for both in some respects.
Thanks to all the statistics stuff and explanations from the numbers mob.
It’s still a long way to the next election.
I was a bit unclear.
Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 10:33 pm
@Griff at 10:30pm
Running estimate is that Liberals will preference One Nation against Labor by about 60-40, while Nationals would preference One Nation vs Labor by about 85-15.
Might have to wait until the Victorian state election to see if that plays true though.
___________
All eyes on Farrer now. Will the Liberals and Nationals put out HTV advice with Independent or One Nation first?
WB – right, but if I had the ability to read and contextualise information like a normal person I would have immediately realised that you were not saying that you hadn’t seen something you had just posted only half an hour beforehand.
Anyway I’ve overthought this – thanks for the main post.
Kirsdarke
I’m not surprised. Carney’s Davos speech back in January attracted a lot of praise among political analysts. But since then he has travelled to sign a lot of trade and security deals for Canada, which matter in the wake of Trump’s tariffs. Even better, Trump’s subsequent actions, like attacking Iran, have proven Carney right.
William, watch the embedded video from the 55 second mark for more on petrol in the SkyNews YouGov poll.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/pauline-hansons-one-nation-surges-against-labor-in-latest-sky-news-pulse-poll/news-story/6582c87b585bc0554347f6cf870a9bb8
Also, see the methodology statement.
https://yougov.com/about/methodology/australian-polling-council
https://d3nnbamw3dez3b.cloudfront.net/documents/Sky_News_SkyPulse_24_03_26_Polling_Council_Methodology_Statement.pdf
Edit, after the 24 March post, there was this on 25 March
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/young-moneycrunched-millennials-rush-to-one-nation-as-coalitions-woes-continue-sky-news-pulse/news-story/e5a09ec9c4874edb3389c7633272be4f
Borewar scribbled,”Those arguing for free everything inevitably are those who always use free everything.”
Stated like a true Tory. And just what would all those free things be? idiot!
Liberal Stephen Patterson, who was MP of Morphett in SA Parliament, played football for Collingwood and Norwood. As per ABC, Morphett, which was held by Libs for 46 years, is won by SA Labor.
Probably, nath knows about him. 🙂
Thanks Leroy. YouGov is frustratingly lacking in an Australia-specific website for its polling.
The above should read
The poll is not good for ALP. My worry is that L-NP+ ON are straight out getting around 45% PV.
Yes, the old links I had that started au.yougov have all died, all their Australian stuff is very hidden, but usually still there somewhere.
Vensays:
Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 11:00 pm
Liberal Stephen Patterson, who was MP of Morphett in SA Parliament, played football for Collingwood
__________________________________
Nuggety little rover/goalsneak who played almost 100 games at the greatest club in the land for almost a goal a game. Hard at it but often an ordinary kick.
From the previous thread which was discussing how the Greens hasn’t picked up votes.
I do wonder what it would take for the Greens to move on their economic policies. They dont seem a very pragmatic party, but I guess this is how they keep their existing vote. But the centre right was there for the taking.
Mostly Interestedsays:
Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 11:16 pm
From the previous thread which was discussing how the Greens hasn’t picked up votes.
I do wonder what it would take for the Greens to move on their economic policies. They dont seem a very pragmatic party, but I guess this is how they keep their existing vote. But the centre right was there for the taking.
__________________
People who are centre right would rather drive nails into their feet than vote greens.
Oh yeah, there’s still another partial state election due in a couple of months.
Is there any word if a One Nation candidate wants to have a go at a Tasmanian upper house seat in May?
Based on current polling the key issues seem to be
Where are the ON votes coming from
How many seats can ON finish second or first
Where will the ON preferences go if distributed
It looks on paper that Labor are leading around 53/47 so a comfortable majority
But there are a few unknowns at this stage. Perhaps Victoria and the by election will provide a clue.
Kirsdarke, only 2 divisions are going to the polls in May.
Huon, where I grew up, and Rosevears in the north. Not sure either of those will be very fertile ground for ON. Though I was amused when I heard ON were having their party meetings at the Gand Hotel in Huonville, that place is such a dive.
Huon is the south end of the federal and state seat of Franklin. The same one that just elected multiple Greens and conservation orientated independents. Rosevears takes in Launceston and as an urban area just isn’t ON land.
nath, precisely. Caused in some part because of their dumb economic policies. You can be a true conservationist and still not have dumb economic policies.
Who can balme Ukraine for doing this, to try to at least offset some of the advantage Russia gets from the US/Israel-Iran War in higher oil revenues and diminished arms deliveries to Ukraine? Not to mention Iran’s substantial military support for Russia’s murderous assaults upon Ukraine:
“Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy drums up defence agreements with Gulf states on countering missiles and drones:
Ukraine leader says signs with Qatar and Saudi Arabia, with one to come with the United Arab Emirates, as Iran presses aerial campaign against neighbours. What we know on day 1,495”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/29/ukraine-war-briefing-zelenskyy-drums-up-defence-agreements-with-gulf-states-on-countering-missiles-and-drones
And this is how to stop Russia from profiting from these skyrocketing global fuel prices:
“Russia announces gasoline export ban as Ukrainian strikes hammer oil infrastructure”
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-announces-gasoline-export-ban-as-ukrainian-strikes-hammer-oil-infrastructure/
@Mostly Interested at 11:41pm
Okay, cheers for that info.
Given the article discussed in the previous thread about YouGov methodology, I’m taking any YouGov “One Nation surge” not picked up by other polls with a large grain of salt, although their SA result was very good. Perhaps an imminent election campaign maximises the number of engaged voters filling out the survey vs people having AI fill out the form for money.
From the current mostly-complete SA count, the SA pollsters with one exception were all pretty close on the primaries for all of Labor, ON, Libs and Green, astoundingly good really. Australians don’t realise how amazingly good our pollsters are by international standards. It’s not all 2019.
That one exception is of course Resolve’s experimental AI poll, which overstated ON by 6% or so and understated Labor by about the same amount. Gold Stars for Demos, YouGov, Newspoll and Fox & Hedgehog. Stern talking to for Resolve about letting AI do your homework, no stars. But hey, now we know – gen AI loves the far right. No shock there. That thing knows who are the people least likely to regulate it or be able to find the off switch with both hands.
@nath:
And yet the Teals exist, and clearly cannibalise votes from people who used to vote Greens in “Teal seats”. The people who voted for Julian Burnside as a Greens candidate and then migrated to Monique Ryan.
What are Teals if not Greens with right wing economics?
“orewar scribbled,”Those arguing for free everything inevitably are those who always use free everything.”
Stated like a true Tory. And just what would all those free things be? idiot!”
Amazing how often reactionaries and centrists say exactly the same things. Fully cucked.
On AUKUS, given Andrew Hastie’s retreat from wholehearted support for the US alliance, I wonder if the position of the right wing security nuts is finally shifting?
I caught up with this week old video interview on Channel Seven with former RAAF Deputy AVM John Blackburn. He calls AUKUS a “political stunt” dreamed up by Morrison and Dutton, which is now damaging the ADF due to cuts it requires.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0KHWOmNYMY&t=192s