Click here for full display of South Australian election results.
Saturday night
A batch of postals in Narungga broke 21-18 in favour of One Nation over Liberal, putting their lead at 47 – which is significant because it may well conclude the count (notwithstanding that a solitary vote at the Moonta booth got shifted from One Nation to Labor, for one reason or another). The deadline for late arrival of postals was the close of business yesterday, and full preference distributions will apparently begin in some cases on Monday. SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: The Kadina EVC tally has been revised to remove 21 votes from One Nation, reducing their lead to 26, which together with the Moonta change suggests we may not be done with rechecking. Heysen’s small number of Electoral Visitor/Mobile Declaration Votes increased the Liberal lead over Labor from 264 to 288, but there remain uncounted vote categories in that case. Nothing worth noting changed in Morphett, and we’re closing in on a week since a new vote got added to the count in MacKillop.
Friday night
ECSA’s preference throw between One Nation and Labor finally swung into action in Hammond today, and it can now be confirmed as One Nation’s second seat, with the two parties evenly placed on the primary vote and One Nation getting about 60% of preferences. Yesterday I registered surprise that the number of “polling day declaration votes” was as high as 1698 – I’m not told this was very likely a data entry error and these votes belong in a different category (polling day absent ordinary votes would be my guess).
With all sorts of new vote types added to the count, One Nation’s lead over Liberal in Narungga today was cut from 147 to 46, almost entirely as a result of a 159-57 break in electoral visitor/mobile declaration votes. I imagine that doesn’t leave much: probably only one last batch of postals. Each of the three batches of these has slightly favoured the Liberals, in slightly dimishing degree: 512-457 on Wednesday, 598-572 on Thursday and 220-214 today.
Similarly, various categories of vote were added in Morphett, suggesting that loose ends are now being tied up and we are near a final result, leaving the trailing candidate hoping for some sort of anomaly turning up in the full preference distribution. In this case it’s Liberal member Stephen Patterson, whose deficit against Labor candidate Toby Priest narrowed today from 293 to 259.
The Liberal lead over Labor in Heysen is out from 156 to 254 after they got the better of a 1054-1010 split in early voting absents broke 1054-1010 and 250-186 from a second batch of postals. That probably sees off any chance of a Labor win, and my system is the only thing extant that’s allowing for the possibility of preferences allowing the Greens to overhaul first Labor and then Liberal.
A curiosity of the past week has been the lack of any progress in the count for MacKillop, which my system rates an almost but not quite certain One Nation win over the Liberals. Nothing has been added since the polling booths and early voting centre counts were completed, which was probably on Sunday or Monday.
My system has uncalled Light, where Labor’s win probability fell fractionally below the 99% threshold after postals 1016-939 in favour of One Nation. Labor leads by 538 votes though, and by this stage of the cuont my system is allowing for more outstanding votes than we are actually likely to get.
Thursday night
Disappointingly, there is still no sign of the Labor-versus-One Nation count that could settle the issue as to which of the two will win Hammond. There were around 3000 postals and “polling day declaration votes” (which turn out not to be what I thought they were, since otherwise there would not have been 1698 of them) and they leave the two almost dead level on first preferences. It can thus be inferred that whoever gets the most preferences will very likely win the seat. The only other regional seat with a Labor-versus-One Nation two-candidate count is Ngadjuri, and in that case One Nation is getting about 60% of them. The main difference between the two is that 10.0% of the vote in Hammond has gone to Airlie Keen, whose how-to-vote card had Liberal second, One Nation sixth and Labor second last. So it seems unlikely that the preference flow here will be radically different from Ngadjuri, which makes me confident in my system’s assessment that One Nation will very likely win the seat.
The Liberal lead over Labor on the two-candidate count in Heysen increased from 54 to 156 after the first batch of postals broke 911-576 to Liberal and the first batch of absents broke 928-704 to Labor. The Greens did poorly on postals, as always, and causing their deficit against Labor on first preferences to increase from 0.9% to 1.6%, which they will need to close on preferences, three quarters of which will be from One Nation, to make the final count against the Liberals. The most proximate useful example I can find from the federal election is the seat of Adelaide, where the Greens got 20.2% of preferences when One Nation was excluded (this included One Nation’s 4.02% primary vote and another 1.76% they picked up on preferences) and Labor got 17.64%. It is for this sort of reason that my three-candidate estimates are giving the Greens an even money chance of closing the gap, but things may be very different in the context of a greatly increased One Nation vote. Whether they would be better placed than Labor to defeat the Liberals at the final count is another open question. I would also reiterate my point about ECSA persisting with a Liberal-Labor two-candidate count and the likelihood that they have made an informed decision in doing so.
In Morphett, Labor candidate Toby Priest’s lead over Liberal incumbent Stephen Patterson increased today from 34 to 293 after a second batch of polling day absents broke 592-459 and a first batch of early voting absents broke 553-427. To close the gap, Patterson will need outstanding two-thirds of postals to split about 57-43 in his favour, as compared with the 53-47 he got from the first batch, and to break even on whatever else remains oustanding.
A second batch of postals in Narungga behaved similarly to the first in breaking 598-572 in favour of Liberal over One Nation, reducing the latter’s lead from 173 to 147. However, the Liberals now have less runway in terms of postals, each of the two batches having accounted for about a third of what’s likely to be the total, and federal precedent suggests absents are more likely to favour One Nation.
Wednesday night
Counting today progressed for the first time (at least out of seats I’ve been watching closely) beyond election day and pre-poll voting. Antony Green relates that ECSA will shortly begin a Labor-versus-independent count in Kavel and a One Nation-versus-Labor count in Hammond “after testing how preferences are flowing from third and fourth placed candidates”, which in both cases is consistent with the conclusions of my system’s preference estimates. At some point tomorrow, my projections in these seats will flip from using these speculative estimates to ones based on the fresh two-candidate counts. As things stand, my system rates it likely but not certain that independent Matt Schultz will prevail in Kavel and Robert Rylance of One Nation will do so in Hammond. UPDATE: Having thought about that more carefully, ECSA is essentially telling us Matt Schultz is going to win in Kavel – his issue was whether he survived to the final count, which ECSA plainly thinks he will. The progress of late counting in these seats has not been of particular interest, as the flow of preferences is almost certainly the black box that holds the secret of the results.
After my system spent the days after the election calling Narungga for One Nation candidate Chantelle Thomas, it is now clear that the result will in fact be extremely close between Thomas and Liberal candidate Tania Stock, as per the consistent view of the ABC. The two-candidate count has caught up with the first preference count and Thomas leads 173. Stock made up 55 on the first batch of postals, which should account for about a third of them. In conventional contests, late-arriving postals tend to be better for Labor then earlier ones, but I cannot offer a view on what pattern they follow between Liberal and One Nation, if any. The biggest categories of vote that remain entirely uncounted are absents and out-of-district early votes, on which One Nation tends to do better than the Liberals, although this can vary according to local circumstance. So the best I can offer is the reliable stand-by that you’d rather be ahead than behind.
Today’s counting in Morphett turned a four-vote lead for Liberal member Stephen Patterson to a 34-vote lead for Labor candidate Toby Priest, with postals favouring Patterson 512-452, absents favouring Priest 225-158, and Priest gaining a net 29 votes on rechecking of pre-polls. The good news for Patterson is that there should be another 2000 or so postals to come, though as noted, the first batch is typically the best for Liberal candidates. Rechecking Heysen today cut the Liberal lead over Labor in the two-candidate count from 69 to 54, but there are as yet no non-ordinary vote types. So far as my results system is concerned, the bigger question is whether the Greens can overtake Labor and make the final count. The projection in my system giving the edge to the Greens is based on fairly careful observation of historic precedents, but it seems to be a minority view. It could be significant that there has been no suggestion from ECSA that they are considering pulling their Liberal-Labor count, as they may well know something about how preferences are actually flowing that I don’t.
Tuesday night
I’ve made two significant changes to my results system: widened its error margins so it will be more conservative in calling seats, and made estimated preference splits between Liberal and One Nation more favourable to the former, which no brings my estimates closer into line with the ABC’s. These factors have as much weight as the progress of today’s counting in the update that follows.
The fresh One Nation-versus-Liberal preference count in Narungga, which so far encompasses 10 of its 33 booths, had a lot to do with my decision to wind back my estimates of One Nation preference flows: I formerly had One Nation leading 55-45 based on estimates, but applying real-world preference data winds it back to 51.2-47.8. Unlike the ABC’s, my system is still calling the seat for One Nation, but I’m slightly nervous about this. One Nation has been downgraded from winner to strong favourite in MacKillop, which is due to the aforementioned changes to my system rather than the One Nation-Liberal two-candidate count, of which we are yet to see any results.
For the same reason, my One Nation win probability in Hammond, which was not quite being called before, has been dialled back slightly while remaining over 90%. This is one of four seats where there is no indication of a fresh two-candidate count: ECSA advised yesterday that in these seats it was “analysing where certain preferences may flow to be in a position to make a call”, though in the case of Hammond it’s difficult to say how the final count could be anything other than One Nation versus Labor.
The progress of today’s check count in the one conventional in-doubt seat, Morphett, offers a useful case study of the savings provision in action. Changes to the various candidate’s primary vote tallies were in no case greater than five, but on the two-candidate preferred count, Labor and Liberal were both up by about the same amount – 83 and 79 votes respectively. It would explain a lot if most of these were saved one-only One Nation votes, divided evenly between the two main contenders as per the party’s registered tickets.
Rechecking today in Heysen offered little insight into the key question of whether Labor or the Greens will make the final count against Liberal member Josh Teague, and what chance the Greens will have of prevailing if it’s them who make it. If they don’t, the two-candidate count tells us Teague holds a narrow lead over Labor that I would think likely to survive late counting. We are similarly none the wiser in Kavel, where the result depends on an order of candidate exclusion, such that minor changes in the various candidates’ first preference shares offer little insight into the like result.
The fresh Labor-versus-One Nation preference count in Light has removed that seat from the doubtful column, with Labor headed for a clear win with help from a strong flow of Liberal preferences. Casey Briggs of the ABC relates that ECSA has done “an indicative preference throw in the early voting centre in Finniss to identify if Lou Nicholson will be overtaken by Labor”. This found that she gained rather than lost votes relative to Labor on preferences, which eliminate any suggestion that Labor might thwart her. So I’ll be removing those two seats from my watch list.
Monday night
Since most of the doubtful seats are so for the want of an appropriate preference count rather than because we know for a fact that they are close, today’s rechecking and gap-filling did not tell us anything terribly momentous. The one case that might have been an exception is the conventional Labor-versus-Liberal contest of Morphett, but all we saw there today were minor changes to the existing count from rechecking.
ECSA has now scrubbed the results of 33 redundant two-candidate preferred counts as it moves into the check count phase, most or perhaps all of which it ceased updating after election night. As well as rechecked primary votes, we are now seeing fresh two-candidate counts with appropriate candidate pairings, only 14 of which are unchanged from those used on election night. Most importantly, this means we will soon be seeing Liberal-versus-One Nation results in Narungga and Light and an independent-versus-One Nation count in Stuart, though by my and the ABC’s system called the latter for Geoff Brock today after he received 59.2% of first preferences out of the 6134 added from the Port Pirie early voting centre. So far though, fresh TCP count figures have only appeared in a handful of booths in seats where the winner is not in doubt. There are four exceptions where new counts will not be conducted as it remains unclear as to who the two leading candidates will be, each involving in-doubt seats: Finniss, Hammond, Kavel and Ngadjuri (though my system is calling the first of these for the independent, a situation I explained at length in yesterday’s update).
I posted a fairly detailed comment in this post’s discussion thread on the question of savings provisions, which has generated some further commentary involving Antony Green among others. This will cause One Nation votes that numbered one only box to remain in the count with their preferences allocated as per a ticket pre-registered by the party. The provision is obviously not specific to One Nation, but is particularly salient in their case as quite a few of their voters apparently voted in this fashion after misinterpreting the how-to-vote card. This will result in votes that are currently being excluded from two-candidate counts to be admitted during the check counts, but as I explain in the comment, I don’t expect this to amount to much. Nor do I buy the idea that One Nation has perpetrated some great outrage by making use of the provision, as argued by both major parties and an editorial in The Advertiser this morning.
If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you might care to note my commentary piece in today’s edition.
Sunday night
There are eight seats whose late counting I’ve identified as worth following, though it’s more possible that seats that are currently off the radar will be on it if fresh two-candidate counts and other quirks of late counting throw up surprises. In a lot of these cases the incremental back and forth of late counting will actually be beside the point: what are really needed are two-candidate counts for the appropriate candidate pairs, and the Electoral Commission is holding off making announcements on that score until the counting of early voting centres, of which four are still to report first preferences after counting on Sunday, are concluded. No new votes were added today in Heysen and Light, and only 46 remote mobile booth votes were added in Stuart, so there is nothing on those below.
Morphett. My system was calling this for Labor on the night (not sure about the ABC’s), but that changed today when the seat’s early voting centre, which added 6861 votes to the 8998 votes cast on election day, recorded only a 1.6% swing to Labor compared with 7.7% for the election day votes. I should stress here that the historic data for early voting centres that is used as the basis for such calculations is imprecise, because results for early voting centres were not actually published in 2022 – they were bundled together with postals, absente and everything else as “declaration votes”, and I and my ABC equivalent had to find a way to estimate how they all broke down. In any case, Liberal incumbent Stephen Patterson now leads Labor candidate Toby Priest by 12 votes. I would usually expect postals to cause late counting to favour the Liberals, but that’s by no means certain.
Narungga. My system is calling this for One Nation’s Chantelle Thomas, while the ABC’s projects a tight race between Thomas and Liberal candidate Tania Stock. As of a few minutes ago, this was because my system had Stock falling out of the preference count before independent incumbent Fraser Ellis, which I now recognise was mistaken because it failed to factor in that Labor had Ellis last on its how-to-vote cards. It now does so for a different reason, which is that the ABC’s estimate of how preference will split between Thomas and Stock are a lot more favourable to Stock than mine are. No doubt the ABC expects a higher adherence of Ellis voters to the how-to-vote card, which has Stock second. Only a fresh TCP count will tell.
Finniss. I’m reasonably comfortable with my system’s prediction of independent Lou Nicholson as the winner here, but it needs watching because the seat is something of a special case so far as my results system is concerned. This is because it’s a three-candidate model and here we have a result that may be decided by who finishes third and fourth. The leaders on the primary vote are Liberal incumbent David Basham on 27.0% and One Nation’s Greg Powell on 22.0%, followed by Nicholson on 19.3% and Labor on 17.3%. The latter gap narrowed today with the addition of the seat’s early voting centre, from 20.5% to 17.7% yesterday to 19.3% to 18.0%, and independents don’t usually do well on postals, none of which have been counted yet. However, the main factor here is likely to be preferences, notably from the Greens on 6.4% and independent Bron Lewis on 4.3%, and I still think it likely these will keep Nicholson ahead. The Greens’ how-to-vote card had Nicholson second, and she got more than twice as many preferences from the Greens as Labor did in 2022. Preferences from independents tend to favour each other, barring strong ideological differences that don’t appear to apply in this case. If she does remain ahead of Labor, she will surely get enough of their preferences to move to One Nation and make the final count against the Liberals. Having looked at this carefully for the first time, I now believe I’m short-changing Nicholson on One Nation preferences — I have splitting 60-40 in favour of Liberal, when they went 78-22 the other way in 2022, albeit that this was with One Nation running a how-to-vote card than favoured her rather than an open ticket as per this time. Even with the 60-40 flow, I’m still getting Nicholson defeating the Liberal by 53.8-46.2 at the final count.
Hammond. The addition of the seat’s early voting centre didn’t fundamentally change the situation here, which is One Nation will win at the final count over Labor unless my preference estimates are substantially awry, which we won’t know about without a fresh TCP count.
Ngadjuri. I’ve been calling this for One Nation’s David Paton all along, but the ABC only did so today after a weak result for Liberal member Penny Pratt from the Two Wells early voting centre caused her to fall behind Labor in its preference projection, which my system was doing because it was estimating weaker preference flows to Liberal. This has caused it to be the first seat projected by the ABC as a One Nation win, and I’ll be having no more to say about it unless late counting turns up some manner of surprise.
UPDATE: It’s been noted that I missed Kavel, where my system swung yesterday from favouring Labor to independent Matt Schultz, presumably because the latter had a strong result at the Mount Barker early voting centre. Ultimately though, this is one that’s going to require a full distribution of preferences before we can really be sure of anything. I’ll discuss the situation in greater detail in tonight’s update.
Morphett looks intriguing. I imagine Postals will go in the Libs favour with absents going in Labor’s favour, but the big question is what happens to absent pre-polls? These are likely to be more favourable to Labor due to the electorates geography. Fascinating stuff
I wonder if the ON supporters in this photo (probably anti immigration and anti Muslim the lot of them),
realise that the thing they’re doing with their finger is exactly the same thing Muslim terrorists do? 😆
James O’Brien’s show is worth a moment of your time as Reform Scotland shows how ‘vetting’ candidates produces interesting candidates.
Can’t see ON being any better.
https://youtu.be/y4CyvQUCGuA?si=W_7kuhXXDQ9FEKm7
People here were speaking about the ON winner in Nagduri wanting to change the name of the electorate back to Frome. So will the successful ON candidate in Narungga also come out with the same bleat? To which I can only add, Mary MacKillop must be turning in her grave. She was such an inclusive figure.
Also, the one thing I’m noticing about ON photos is it’s very hard to spot a dark-skinned person.
C@t, someone said that the member concerned will find being identified in the House by the name of the electorate, very difficult.
I’ve always (as a very fair-skinned person) found the desire to get a tan, to be quite ironic given the bronzed Aussie shtick that there appears to be in this country.
Revolutionary Quisling,
The Member for Nagduri will only be exposing his bigoted inclinations by doing that. Which will send a loud and clear message to the rest of Australia that if you vote ON, that’s what you get. Hopefully Victorians and the voters of Farrer get that message.
As far as your second comment, it’s interesting to see that ON’s Whiteness test extends to being accepting of swarthy Italian-Australians like Bernardi. White to Dark White is acceptable. 😉
My fears for a strong ON performance in Victoria have significantly grown now. The ON vote in outer Adelaide has been significant. The western suburbs of Melbourne are p!ssed at Labor and saw massive swings (8-15%) against it in 2022, but they hate the Libs. Real worried that ON will be the ‘natural choice’ like it was in Adelaide seats like Taylor, Elizabeth, Ngadjuri and Light- ironically their biggest threat could be the Greens or Vic Socialists!!
Well Ngadjuri has been called by the ABC for One Nation. I wonder when the call in Hammond will be? I’m just happy that it ended up being a Labor landslide so that common sense will remain in government hands.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-malinauskas-mandate-how-the-sa-premier-became-the-nation-s-most-formidable-politician-20260322-p5rmdl.html
He is most popular politician in Australia. He could be a ‘moderate’ Liberal Premier if he is a liberal politician. Pete Credlin has favourable view of him. You can understand how he cuts across the divide. The advantage he has Labor team on his side and hence liked on the Labor side.
I would love to know what the ON count is for second preference votes. You might think that 22% first preference votes would translate into more seats, but maybe many people just used their first prefs as a protest vote, and other voters couldn’t bring themselves to give ON their 2nd preference which ON would need to actually win seats.
Knowing the record of ON members who stay with ON in parliament; if I were Labor today, I would rush through legislation stating that if a sitting MP changes parties mid term, an automatic bi-election is called.
No Kavel on your doubtful list?
So probably 4 ON and 6 Lib. I just didn’t believe the polls and underestimated ON.
This will give them a financial boost as well with the allocation for first prefs.
Anne Rushton says ( the stock standard Liberal message after an electoral defeat) that the Party hasnt been getting the message across…
Ffs, the message has been clearly and precisely made- this is a Party that is enmeshed in factionalism, power struggles, fundamentalist religious and regressive policies, bigotry and racism and, absolutely paramount in its imagery, misogony. The selection of female leaders in SA and Victoria tell more about the absolute deficit of leadership potential there than belief that a woman can turn it all around. It stinks of tokenism.
And Australian voters( and contemporary SA voters) read that message very clearly.
The removal of Ley by the power – hungry men of the Right- yet another leadership challenge by the Party part- time PM Abbott once described as “the adults in the room” after Gillards defeat yet again reveals the nature of those factions- they do not give a shit about the people who vote- its all about power, influence and leather seats in parliament.
And all Anne Rushton can do is trot out the same miserable comments after yet another defeat.
She , as a woman , betrays the values of women she pretends to represent in her Party.
One last point.
It is also abundantly clear that the Liberals chose criticism, ridicule and mockery as political choices over thought-out, clear- cut and contemporary policies that Australians regard as obligatory to the political discourse in our country.
No, Rushton, the message has been clearly made- and voters in SA know it. And Pauline knows it too.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-malinauskas-mandate-how-the-sa-premier-became-the-nation-s-most-formidable-politician-20260322-p5rmdl.html
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He is popular. No doubt. And leads his team well (noting that this is easier when the team is doing well). But there are signs this isnt all roses and I wouldnt be saying he is formidable. The Liberal Party were a shambles for 4 years. Not just in leadership changes but in a clear and well publicised internal schism that was still evident in the days leading up to the election. Add to that what was happening in the Party federally recently. Yet the ALP primary vote dipped (slightly) and only gained 2.9pts (atm) 2PP v Liberals.
His schtick of ‘I am a good guy, just trying to do what is best’ (which is mostly genuine imo) ‘so dont ask me hard questions’ unravelled in the few glitches he has had to face this term. tbh, I am not sure how he will stand up to anything sustained. In that metric, Albanese has the track record (and Dan Andrews).
I have a feeling that this result was entirely due to the popularity of Peter Malinauskas. If you replicate the types of swings in the outer suburbs and regional areas to the Jacinta Allen Labor government in Victoria it would have produced a Coalition minority government with support from One Nation.
The rise in support for One Nation in rural and blue collar areas were due to those voters being outraged over the Adelaide Writers’ Week saga. 😛
For what it’s worth. (MY MARKET)
LIVE ODDS
HEYSEN: LIB: $1.20 v GRN: $7 v ALP: $11
KAVEL: IND: $1.10 v LIB: $9 v ALP: $12
LIGHT: ALP $1.06 v ON: $15
MACKILLOP: LIB: $1.65 v ON: $2.10
MORPHETT: LIB: $1.55 v ALP: $2.40
NARUNGGA: LIB: $1.80 v ON: $1.90
STUART: IND: $1.03 v ON: $26
The ABC and ON definitely see Narungga differently, so I’m a bit each way on that one.
The LC still is interesting. Right now it’s looking like 4 Labor 3 One Nation 2 Liberal 1 Green with the 11th spot still too hard to call but probably Labor #5 or Green #2 (much more likely the former) but there’s still a lot of postals which will most likely skew the count a bit more conservatively. Probably not enough to get a One Nation #4 or Liberal #3. The former requiring preferences to get its 3rd seat and the latter having a tiny overhang – even if they’re boosted by postals, the overhang probably still won’t be enough to get them elected. However, there’s a big pool of preferences there and, with the postals yet to be added to the mix, there’s an outside chance of something funky happening there. However, if forced to make a prediction at this point, I’d say the spot will go to Labor #5.
9 seats still undecided according to the ABC including 1 that leans Labor, 2 that lean independent, 1 that leans One Nation, and 5 seats that are just too close to call.
Thomas Brian Mutter @10:10.
The general adage is that the harder you work the luckier you get.
Mali has a few traits that annoy me and frustrate his party and his staff, and he gets some calls wrong.
But being lazy is not one of them.
He’s popular. He works hard to lift the state. Of course he’s popular.
That the northern suburbs feel left behind is a blight on his leadership, but one where he can and will focus his government’s attention.
The narrative is different in SA. No-one expected a result different to the one we saw.
Most of the media reporting is about the staggering success of ON. The party that might get 4 seats. Meanwhile the Labor government was returned with an increased already very healthy margin.
The Libs might get 5. ON might get 4. In a 17 seat parliament that would mean something. In a 47 seat parliament it is an indictment on them.
In Victoria we have been hearing since 2003 that the next election will result in minority Labor government……
ON will blow the place up here too. The ALP (probably not with Jacinta at the helm) will be returned comfortably. But all we will hear in the media is how well ON and the Libs did. Ho hum. Welcome to the inherent bias of the establishment media.
There has still not been a skerrick of discussion on what the Liberal Party’s policies are – late alone a scintilla of discussion of White Nation’s policies other than we hate everybody else.
MABWM
No one in the Victorian Labor Party thinks they winning comfortably.
So could Mali make the transition to federal? He’s pretty young (45 or so). I can’t see him wanting more than 8 years as premier.
Don Farrell would dearly love for him to be SAs first PM. I wouldn’t rule it out.
@Diogenes I would then probably worry about the 2030 election then because if they can’t find a leader with as much charisma, and as much popularity as Malinauskas then we could see a situation like in New South Wales where the far-right and far-left extremists will take advantage of that situation very quickly with a moderately tolerated premier.
Any thoughts on gambling legislation and gambling advertising ?
There are 3 electorates, which I predict for One Nation in 2026 SA State Election =
LIGHT, NARUGGA and NGADJURI. Obviously this depends on actual results of voter preferences, but it will be interesting to see where One Nation SA voters put their 2, 3 and 4 etc. on green ballot in the 47 electorates, or just a “1” only, where the “savings provision” should apply and then these particular One Nation ballot votes are counted separately.
Possibly 3 seats in LC (definitely 2 won) for One Nation.
HAMMOND ‘appears’ likely win for One Nation except my workings (based on 67.9% of votes counted and preferences shown on published HTVs displayed on ECSA website), has the win going to the existing LIB MP, Adrian Pederick. The Independent candidate, Airlie Keen (who had a HTV) put her no. 2 for Liberals. That pushes Liberals above One Nation, Robert Roylance. As One Nation had no HTV, and all minors excluded after Keen goes out, this leaves One Nation 3rd. Many One Nation voters would have preferenced Liberals over Labor as 2nd. Obviously it’s tight though, plus the “savings provision” may impact further in HAMMOND.
The general reality is that intergenerational wealth transfer will determine “the luckier you get”.
The general reality is that the universal superannuation scheme in Australia has made the majority of the population “the luckier you get”.
The the general reality is you can still work hard to become “the luckier you get”.
The general reality is that one’s status is determined by “the luckier you get”.
The general reality is that the state of politics in Australia particularly the emergence of ON, is that plenty of Australians are dissatisfied with their status.
They need to be told to be correct when they buy their tickets in “the lucky country”.
It’s interesting to note that plenty of migrants understand how it all works!
@goll Did it as odds but probably should of done % chance.
@Patrick Bateman – thanks for your courteous and rational reply re development/over-development in Adelaide in the other thread. Some good points there.
I do think the Mail Govt needs to curb those developers who want to fundamentally alter what our city has valued in its built environments/natural environments – that kind of energy after all would be in keeping with the proud Dunstan tradition of Labor which was a bulwark against the kind of urban devastation that occurred in Sydney, for example.
@Thomas Brian Mutter – of course Mali`s popularity helped the election result. He is likeable and pragmatic, if he is committed to something he will do the hard yards to get it done like providing feed to desperate farmers and saving the heritage pub The Crown and Anchor, as two examples. He`s a very good communicator and he`s done his best to revive the hospitality industry after the Covid collapse.
However, he has been rightly criticised for a populist approach at the expense of good sense and principles in some matters. The optics as well as practicalities of splashing around public money to bring Katy Perry to Adelaide were not good.
Labor likes to throw around the term `Elitist` but antics like this for a small number of the population who like to pay hundreds for this kind of event have been rightly criticised. `Only a million or so` was one of the answers given by defenders but that could have spent much more wisely.
Mali`s fondness for environmentally damaging motor sports, one of which is backed by a Saudi cartel with questionable dealings, is another negative for some.
Same wih the development of the unique North Adelaide Golf Course with its old, ecosystem sustaining trees and vegetation as well as habitats for birds and animals right near the heart of our city for a major golf event. Many of those trees will be destroyed and a lot of concrete will be laid including most likely buildings to replace the current venue there which fits in with the environment.
Yet this event could have been hosted at another golf course in the west of Adelaide where the development would have been an asset and the environment affected far less.
A train line goes past that golf course as well as buses and it`s not far from the city. Local businesses would have benefited so much – those in the city already have access to customers for many other events.
The tendency of Mali to dismiss alternatives to his projects that do environmental damage in the form of intense noise and emissions pollution and to unique green spaces and habitats is one of his worst qualities. He can be conceited in the public eye and presents his pet projects as the public good. There`s other examples that could be listed.
The lack of a Liberal opposition was a big factor in this election caning as well as One Nation playing the spoiler role.
The previous Liberal Govt under Stephen Marshall was noted for being fairly moderate and but for Covid would likely have won the 2022 election with a reduced margin. The Covid period has proven to be the nail in the coffin for governments all over the world, not just Australia, who were in power at that time.
The Liberal leadership after that election loss was handed to David Speirs, then member for Black. He`d done well to keep his seat and was an active local member but lacked the debating skills and energy when dealing with the Labor Govt.
His arrest and charges of possession/dealing cocaine went down like a lead balloon with his electorate despite all the claims of support and sympathy for him. There was a big swing to Labor and their candidate captured the seat.
Speirs` failure to take responsibility for his actions and his attacking his former party which had no choice but to remove him as leader also went down like a lead balloon. A party involved in this kind of situation will be adversely affected especially as it had two leaders after Speirs. The current one Ashton Hurn had less than 4 months to get things moving before the state election.
Throw in changing demographics of many of the South Australian seats to add to the advantage of a Government that came to power largely due to its luck in missing out on governing during Covid.
An unstable Opposition lacking credibility, the inability of the Greens here to take House of Rep seats, and the participation of maverick One Nation in addition to a popular and pragmatic Mali Premiership and a managerial style Govt undertaking public infrastructure programs that were in the pipeline before they got elected in 2022.
And there you have the 2026 State Election result.
LIVE CHANCES
Heysen: Liberal 80%, Grn 15%, ALP 5%
Kavel: Independent 90%, Lib 6, Lab 4
Light: Labor 95%, One Nation 5%
MacKillop: Liberal 65%, One Nation 35
Morphett: Liberal 60%, Labor 40%
Narungga: 50/50 Lib v ON
Stuart: Independent 98% v ON 2%
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/data-reveals-low-income-and-education-levels-fuelled-one-nations-sa-election-surge/news-story/94d21a4068b9a5dbd126cb402383b560
One Nation is officially now the party of disadvantage. I think part of their recent success is that they understand this in a way the Coalition have failed to recognise.
Yes, Kavel was an oversight. I’ve added an update on it at the end of the post.
The ABC has now just called Stuart for independent MP Geoff Brock.
Monty
I think AUKUS subs are a huge bonus for any incumbent in the state (state or federal). It gives our kids hope for good tech jobs in the future and it’s a massive amount of money.
Hard to see Labor losing any of their federal seats.
This is like Queensland 1998 all over again.
Dio
Albanese faces economic storm clouds, Labor will be doing well to hold their seats in the face of higher unemployment, higher inflation and higher interest rates.
Me too. Brock got 59.2% of the primary vote at the Port Pirie EVC, which just reported.
@Wombat:
I wouldn’t attribute to good management what’s mostly luck. One Nation have been the same beast since they were created, whatever Christopher Pyyyyyne might say. They happened to be sitting in the right spot while the right wing grievance machine mostly made in America spread its tentacles all through the internet, while the Coalition shat their pants and while Clive Clived it up in his attempt to capture the cooker market.
The part about the Coalition is right, though. Decades of being the party of big business and the party of the establishment, they couldn’t adapt to being the party of populist rabble-rousing. They have no cult leader Donald Trump figure who could somehow convince the poor that a billionaire surrounding himself with other billionaires, using his office to enrich himself and playing golf at Mar a Lago all the time, is on their side. And thank fuck for that.
Wow
“ The provision document, which the Electoral Commission of SA keeps secret, outlines a party’s preferences if a voter just writes “one” against a candidate and leaves the rest blank.
Election authorities then consult the document to then allocate preferences.
The commission has set aside those papers to count this week, initially classifying them as informal. Some seats have up to five per cent informal vote, although not all will be eligible”
ON HTV just had 1 next to their candidate. The majors not happy.
Team Katichsays:
Monday, March 23, 2026 at 9:42 am
He is popular. No doubt. And leads his team well (noting that this is easier when the team is doing well).
His schtick of ‘I am a good guy, just trying to do what is best’ (which is mostly genuine imo) ‘so dont ask me hard questions’ unravelled in the few glitches he has had to face this term. tbh, I am not sure how he will stand up to anything sustained. In that metric, Albanese has the track record (and Dan Andrews).
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Using that metric, we can add Annastacia Palaszczuk who sent LNP premier Campbell Newman to the dustbin of history, then fought off her nemesis Gladbags Berejiklian and finally stood up to ‘I don’t hold a hose’ Morrison and closed Queensland’s borders for which she was thanked with her term in office by the people of QLD.
Now that’s what I call a track record.
I had not previously realised that Nick Cater of The Australian could be so amusing…
“Even without One Nation, the Liberals faced humiliation after a term in opposition best described as
colourful. Two Liberal members have received criminal convictions and one has been charged, constraining the opportunity to campaign on crime.”
Landlord of the Year says:
Monday, March 23, 2026 at 12:34 pm
Dio
Albanese faces economic storm clouds, Labor will be doing well to hold their seats in the face of higher unemployment, higher inflation and higher interest rates.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
Maybe !
Maybe not !
With the federal election well over two years away some, none or all of those storm clouds may still be there.
But who would have thought that in this term of government we would have had a Bondi massacre, which the Tories chose to politicise much to their detriment, or a war in the middle east which has
changed the world order.
All this may pass into history over the next two years, along with the passing of the Liberal Party.
Even the by-election in Farrer or the Victorian State one in November will have come and gone this year
leaving yet a year or so to await for the unknowns after that.
98.6
A.I. is the big unknown. Tech over promises and under delivers but if unemployment starts spiking, it isn’t clear how the government plans to handle it.
A few wha wha’s from Sarah Game:
“Obviously, I’m not happy with the campaign because I’m not aware of any policy platforms that we really came out strong on and it would have been different if we’d actually told the people of South Australia a bit more clearly what we were going to do,” the party leader, who sensationally split from One Nation last year over differences with leader Pauline Hanson, said. “I think that’s a real shame because I think we’ll end up with three One Nation members in the upper house – I don’t think they’re going to have very much power. “I think what’s going to happen is that we’re going to end up with an upper house that’s dominated by Labor and very likely the Greens.”
Despite her party’s poor showing, Game, who is the first person in SA to have been elected to the state parliament for One Nation, had no regrets quitting the party, saying, “I wouldn’t feel proud to be a part of that party”. “I tried to change that brand into something I would feel good about and ultimately, the reason I left is, I don’t feel good about being part of it and I don’t feel my kids, ultimately, feel proud of me being part of it, so I’m very glad to be out,” she said.
https://www.indailysa.com.au/news/just-in/2026/03/23/highly-traumatic-game-digs-in-on-one-nation-split
Monty
I agree that Marshall himself was a reasonable person and Premier and I don’t think he can be blamed for the 2022 SA State Liberal loss.
However there was a lot more to it than just covid! Marshall handled covid well, followed the medical advice, and was popular at the time. The problems came later, and from within his own party, with a string of scandals involving Liberal MPs rorting expenses, especially their “living away from home” allowance. There were also two other charged on other matters (stealing, DV). They became a farce.
The fact he allowed the state emergency committee to be chaired by the police commisioner rather than the democratically elected Premier made it look like he wasn’t really in charge.
One of the first things Mali did after he won in 2022 was make the state emergency committee subordinate to the cabinet which is exactly what should’ve been the case.