Click here for full display of South Australian election results.
I’m otherwise engaged this evening, so won’t be offering anything in the way of live commentary, but hopefully the Poll Bludger live results system will tell you everything you need to know. As well as the main landing platform linked to above there is also a map display that will colour in as results are reported to reflect who the system deems to be ahead or to have won, respectively indicated with a lighter or darker shade.
Each individual seat page comes with projections (which start from assumptions about who the three leading candidates will be, which in some cases I may have to change on the fly if I find time) and results at swings at booth level, displayed in both tabular and mapped form (for the latter, click the “active” button at the bottom of the page). As always, I’m crossing my fingers hoping this will all work okay. I have made life harder for myself by implementing a new method for determining win probabilities, which would ideally have been rolled out at a less complicated election. Hopefully its errors will be on the side of caution – a may implement some rather crude fudges on the fly to make it so if that doesn’t seem to be what’s happening.
This will be a landmark election night so far as the Electoral Commission of South Australia’s reporting of the results is concerned, as early voting centres will be counted on the night for the first time (though experience suggest some of them will handle too many votes for them to finish the job before the close of business). What were formerly reported in one line as “declaration votes” will now be reported at an appropriate level of complexity – early voting centres no longer count as declaration votes, and will be reported on a location by location basis, and the rest will for the first time be reported separately as postals, absents and the best. This complicated matters for those of us who need to produce datasets of previous election results to match against those that will be reported tonight for swing calculation purposes, but is undoubtedly a welcome development in the long run.
An added layer of challenge lies in the fact that the ECSA offers no indication as to which candidates it has selected for the notional two-candidate preferred counts, which are usually provided to the media on a confidential basis. A couple of seat pages are in fact not working as they should be because one of my tables says one thing about who the candidates will be another one says another, but I believe I’ve geared things so it will correct itself when the appropriate candidates can be identified. If however individual seat results pages continue to misfire, the likeliest explanation (though my no means the only one possible) will have something to do with this issue. In an ideal world I would be free to patch things together, but as it stands I will be otherwise engaged, so it’s a question of fingers crossed.
Naturally all of this involved a vast amount of unpaid work, so if you believe that situation should be rectified, your donations are gratefully received through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the site and the bottom of each post.
Is Aoi / Trent Baxter an English migrant, or an Aussie who was over there on holiday? Working in a pub there and having businesses set up here suggests the latter.
@Diogenes even I laughed at that.
Labor could have, should have played ultra positive and stayed away from some of the stunts they did.
They have a great story to sell, but messed up at time.
D F M
‘Shows initiative’.
Did the Labor guy say he doesn’t think Heysen would be Labor vs Liberal?
Do we know when the SA Legislative Council gets counted? I can’t see it on William’s otherwise excellent tracker
Been in bed with gastro all day. Still dragged myself to the polling place, hand sanitizer in pocket, to cast my vote this morning. Alas no sausage present, although I was in no condition to eat anyway.
My gastric distress is an appropriate metaphor for my feelings about even a minor orange wave.
Will the Liberals regret not going ‘further to the right’ as actively encouraged by the Sky News talking heads over the last few years.
I tip Labor to win 36 seats and the Liberals to win 8. But the One Nation vote will be unpredictable.
HBG: it’d be a dark night for the Libs if they come third in a seat they’ve never lost before. Lib/Grn 2cp maybe, but the recent internal dramas in the Greens haven’t done them any favours.
Bird of paradox says:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 7:03 pm
Is Aoi / Trent Baxter an English migrant, or an Aussie who was over there on holiday? Working in a pub there and having businesses set up here suggests the latter.
____________________
Aussie i think, went to the UK, bignoted himself, got into a spot of bother and self deported.
Liberals got 4th place (of nine) on my ballot today. I suppose at least it wasn’t 3rd this time. I miss when I could ethically put them last or second-to-last (when the one odd far right/fundy party is on the ballot.)
“Is Aoi / Trent Baxter an English migrant, or an Aussie who was over there on holiday? Working in a pub there and having businesses set up here suggests the latter.”
He’s from the South Coast of NSW, and lived in Queanbeyan for a while. So I suspect he was on a holiday. He’s definitely not from South Australia, another Pauline Parachute Candidate.
Any election where the focus is all on the opposition saving the furniture is not a good omen for changing government.
BoP, maybe he thinks Labor will come 3rd? There are lots of right wing minors whose preferences should favour the Liberals
Peter Malinauskas is Labor’s best leader by a country mile.
Ashton Hurn hold her seat.
Watching how many vote for the guy who saw a witch enter a church before melting.
Wat: did you get one of Mark Aldridge’s mates on your ballot? Even among One Nation and the two Family Firsts, they’re particularly deserving of last place.
(I really hope nobody saw the name “United Voice”, thought it was the union and voted for them on that basis.)
ABC has annoyed me by putting the Liberal rep on the left of the screen and the Labor rep on the right.
Also tell Casey to move away from the set when he’s talking to the other staff. I can hear him in the background.
BoP I believe so.
Ruston having the guts to show up tonight knowing the Libs are going to get a spanking is actually pretty impressive to me. No attempt to project optimism either, she knows she’s at a wake.
Nice to know that AG is still behind the scenes at the ABC tonight, even if we do not benefit from his wit and charm 🙂
I agree good on Ruston for showing up tonight. Definitely handed the hospital pass for the team.
Oh Alexander Downer is on Sky news coverage – i am sure he has an answer to the things that matter to South Australians
The Sky people seem overjoyed that the Liberals are struggling against One Nation.
William has a hot date tonight?
How many seats for One Nation, zero or one is my call.
Oh the lovely Paul Murry is the man on the spot at One Nation HQ, never seen a bloke more in his element both physically and mentally.
Interesting wardrobe choice- open necked blackshirt, not exactly subtle
Very telling.
Counting and reporting always this slow in SA?
Early Numbers from ALP HQ for a booth in Unley
Labor 33.7 (from 23)
Libs 34.3 (from 60)
Greens 16
ON 9.3
Lots of first time workers at this election, staffing was a nightmare apparently. The $950-1300 for a days work not enough to draw in the required officials. You would think cossie lives would have people champing at the bit for an easy grand. But it’s a long day I suppose.
Expecting a pretty slow initial count as they get things started.
In ABC TV
SA Treasurer said that he got news from Labor HQ for one of the seats, where Lib vote was 60% last election but it is now 34%, Labor is 33% and PHON vote is 7%
8 candidates this time instead of 3 in Unley, that’s a big drop in the Liberal vote though
Very Early Figures!
Chaffey:
LNP 37, ON 33.7, ALP + GRN 19.7, OT 5
2PP: 56 to 43 to ONP
Flinders:
LIB 45.2, ON 31.4, IND 7.8, ALP 5.7, OTH 6
Elizabeth (only 200 votes or less though)
ONP 39.6, ALP 32.4, GRN 13.7, OTH 14
Chaffey
280 votes
Lib 38%
ON 33%
Labor 13%
One Nation on very early figures holding up.
FFS
Elizabeth 1 booth
ON: 39.6%
Labor: 37%
Green: 13%
Baxter on 12% in Adelaide, although that’s only 59 votes but assuming election day votes?
People will vote for anyone or don’t watch the news
The Sky people seem overjoyed that the Liberals are struggling against One Nation.
The disaffection among reactionary voters is obviously very profound. No-one wants to affiliate with the useless and the defeated; with the hopelessly lost cause; with the Blue, the very personification of the irrelevant. Voter affection for No Notion is quite pathetic. It’s rebound attraction and will not last. No Notion are completely empty.
Elizabeth could go to ON.
Just horrible
Oh yeah baby here we go here we go…
Interest rate rise this week a killer Diller!
Dispatched a few early balls to the boundary.
Anyone think Labor directing their preferences to the Liberals in Chaffey will be enough to keep out ON?
Chaffey had a Lib primary above 54% four years ago and a 16 year local member running.
Absolutely disastrous already for them.
0.2% counted
ALP 35.1
LIB 17.1
ON 20.2
At least it’s clear PP has transmitted his virus officially to ONP.
I would advise everyone to wai for a few more results to come in before celebrating / slitting their wrists.
Liberals are being demolished on early figures (which are mostly rural). ALP 35, ON 25, LNP 18, GRN 11.6, OT 10.4.
It could be worse. 25 in mostly rural areas will come down. Liberals paying the price for flirting with racism.
Labor will be rescuing what little Liberals end up in Parliament after tonight.
So far in SA, One Nation is ~20%, which is comprised of ~14% Liberal Party and ~6% Labor Party. This is off the first 4000 votes.
A lot of these small figures would be stuff like hospital votes, yeah?
Libs coming fourth behind ON and Greens on the first figures in Elizabeth, Lee and West Torrens. Ouch.
Giles
On 40%
Labor 29%
Statewide
ALP 32. 3
ON 23.3
LIB 21%
Goddamn, though, One Nation seem to performing very strongly so far. Really early figures, I know, but still…
A 2nd generation Bolkus, Aria Bolkus, is running for Labor tonight.