In among the hubbub of the South Australian election, DemosAU has unleashed one of its occasional multi-level regression and post-stratification polls, designed to project seat outcomes based on their demographic characteristics. Its projection is (deep breath) for Labor to win 77 to 86 seats, One Nation to win 46 to 55, the Coalition to win nine to 17 (including zero to two for the Nationals), the Greens to win zero to three, and two to six to go to others. This is based on vote shares of Labor 29%, One Nation 27%, Coalition 21% and Greens 12%. The surveying was conducted from Janury 13 to March 3 from a sample of 8484.
SLsays:
Tuesday, March 24, 2026 at 8:50 pm
Confessionssays:
Tuesday, March 24, 2026 at 8:39 pm
So I’m seeing ads for this during MAFS. Is the mining sector sensing something coming on the horizon from the government and are making a preemptive strike?
https://thatsmining.com.au/
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They don’t represent the gas industry – Australian Energy Producers (until recently known as APPEA) do and have been active lately trying to sway public opinion with possible new taxes and a gas reservation scheme in the works.
These are its members: https://minerals.org.au/membership-and-benefits/our-members/
Maybe Gina is feeling unappreciated?
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Because whoever made the drop from the Prime Minister’s office was being clumsy – far better just to have said nothing on resources taxes and stonewalled until budget night proper. There was already enough red meat for various lobbies to complain about on negative gearing, CGT, and EV novated leases for pre-budget speculation.
Besides, they probably haven’t even worked out the model yet, considering this past week alone there have been ideas thrown about from the unions (25% on exports), One Nation (levy at the production stage), Ken Henry (ACCUs on exports) or the Superpower institute (some other non-accu carbon tax on exports).
Given that the earliest speculation included coal in the mix, it might even be a Qld style sliding price scale levy.
Labor will have to deal with Senator David Pocock soon.
Perhaps the Max C-M treatment.
Labor can’t keep shitting on the ‘voters wot got them there’.
EV’s yesterday. Mining taxes tomorrow.
Oh well.
SL @ 7:59 pm
How amusing that they think we still have 10 years.
Sorry, but not under this government.
@Alabama
But Big Gina would rather employ immigrants happy to work for $2 a day than Aussie workers demanding $100K+ per year in the mines.
How does that factor in?
Is Ursula Von der woke still in oz.
Get her out of here.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-24/fossil-fuel-climate-disinformation-threatens-australia/106490840
Your government already knew this. They have a secret report that told them. They just didn’t want to tell you.
Thanks, Albo.
ALABAMA
Workers vote for their jobs first is something the right forgets when attacking its own workforce.
@Player One at 9:25pm
Christ, you’re faster locking on to blaming Labor for everything bad than the IDF with its “targets”.
Given the history of the far right, their voter base will often vote for them in-spite of the risk to their own jobs…
ALP 29 ON 27 Coalition 19 Greens 13 Ind/Other 12
One Nation is quickly closing the gap on Labor, with exclusive polling showing Pauline Hanson’s party is just two points from becoming the most popular political party.
The Sky News Pulse / YouGov poll revealed One Nation lifted its primary vote to 27 while Labor’s fell a single point to 29.
Senator Hanson’s party is better placed to take on Labor than the Coalition in a two-party-preferred contest after preference flows, in One Nation’s strongest 2PP result yet.
Labor still commands a lead of 53-47 against One Nation, while the Coalition lags behind the government 54-46.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/pauline-hansons-one-nation-surges-against-labor-in-latest-sky-news-pulse-poll/news-story/6582c87b585bc0554347f6cf870a9bb8
Bizzcan,
Anyone with a pulse know’s there has been a leak from either the PM’s office or from treasury.
Landlord of the year – remember, the workers, united, will never be defeated.
They know who their real enemy is.
Ha ha.
Timely poll drop holdenhillbilly.
Labor down, O.N. up. You couldn’t have timed that one better.
Can’t be long before O.N. overtakes Labor on the primary.
Ta ta.
Kirskdale @ 9:33 pm
You think there is some benefit to be had by blaming previous governments? Other than political gain? Really?
I blame those who could do something about it now … and instead choose not to do so.
Who do you blame?
One Nation couldn’t even organise a piss up in a brewery let alone a government.
@Player One
I blame the Howard-Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Governments first for entrenching us in this position first, the lobbyists that backed them second, and the voters that fell for it third.
The Gillard government of 2010-13 proved that if you just try to force through major policy changes as the Greens dictate, then all you do is lose. Abbott gleefully repealed almost everything good they achieved.
The problems of Australian politics as they stand need to be solved through a slow-cook strategy, rather than a sauté strategy that the Greens demand – instant, unpopular policies forced on the electorate that can be quickly disposed of at the next election once the opposition takes over.
Oh, but at least being “pure” cleanses the political spirit or whatever.
steve davis @9 47 pm
Barnaby says “hold my beer …”
I admit I have got it wrong.
I thought Alabama was just another isolated, aggressive dork rather than a troubled Fu*&^k wit.
However, in his most recent fly-by (shoot from the lip/hip) it seems he has some mates out in the sticks – having a leaning towards ON – who agree with him.
The day that ON nation ever gets near any influence over the 80% of the population who live in the real world rather than Whingeville will be the day to consider demanding WA leave the Commonwealth.
As he said a night or two ago…..”We are coming” to which the obvious reply is “We’ll be waiting”.
Doubt he would ever loosen his grip on a beer
PHON catching Albanese’s government is ego popping for a man thinking himself a generational leader making Labor the natural party of government.
Kirsdarke @ 9:49 pm
Yup. And that’s Labor’s climate policy in a nutshell.
Did ON win any SA seats in the weekend’s election?
Im sorry, are we all just forgetting another, very important series of events, that helped the LNP get into and stay in power after Gillard?
Implying that the single biggest reason that Labor got lost in the woods for a decade wasnt the very public knife games is wild to me.
But hey, thats also the Greens fault somehow.
Weird how the LNP never seems to fail trying to crash through terrible policy when ever they get a chance, while Labor is scared to even undo Liberal policy “cough the ERF cough”.
Plus of course the hostile media that Labor somehow thinks they can cozy up to, which backfires every. single. time.
And oh look, another poll showing ON starting to eat at Labors right flank. Who could have seen that coming…
@Player One at 9:53pm
Oh for crying out loud, Australian Labor can’t change the world that quickly. The idea is that we set an example of a clean transition that doesn’t hurt the economy.
If we succeed in that, then other, bigger countries will take notice. Heck, China is taking notice and they’re the second worst greenhouse gas emitters, they’re investing so much in renewables it just blows the mind.
If we continue just keeping the momentum slow and steady without being like “Welp, shut off all coal/gas power stations and dismantle them immediately and let’s try to live without reliable energy for a few decades”, we might even get India on board, and if we can serve as an example of a successful transition to renewable energy for the 2 most populous countries in the world, that’ll certainly get other countries on board.
And when/if the USA gets its act together it’ll join in too, unless Trump lives to 100 and breaks the constitution and rules until 2046 as King of America or whatever.
If we keep this up until 2050 then we might actually minimize the effect of climate change, and also our dependence on fossil fuels.
That’s my hope for the future.
“If we succeed in that, then other, bigger countries will take notice. Heck, China is taking notice and they’re the second worst greenhouse gas emitters, they’re investing so much in renewable it just blows the mind.”
Thats a very… interesting interpretation of Chinese actions on energy investment and emission reduction. Also worth noting the difference between total and per capita, and of course sourcing vs generation.
China in no way can be said to be taking the “gradual” approach to re engineering their entire power grid, nor in climate change emission targets and mitigation.
meanwhile, the entirety of Australias emissions reduction is driven by policy designed and implemented by the bloody Abbott government. Labor has made some modifications regarding safeguard, but at its core, Australian climate change is LNP policy, adopted by Labor.
Hell, I remember when friendlyjordies came out with a video mocking the policy; funny how he doesnt seem to have to many issues with it these days.
Confessions says:
Tuesday, March 24, 2026 at 9:59 pm
Did ON win any SA seats in the weekend’s election?
This election was a disaster for ON, only ahead in 2 seats, in one Labor increased its vote, ON took votes off the Liberals.. with ON track record they will loose at least one of their candidates for gaming the system.
Have faith in the preferential voting system.
How many parties that split the Liberal vote are still around today
Player One says:
Tuesday, March 24, 2026 at 9:41 pm
Kirskdale @ 9:33 pm
“Christ, you’re faster locking on to blaming Labor for everything bad than the IDF with its “targets”.”
You think there is some benefit to be had by blaming previous governments? Other than political gain? Really?
I blame those who could do something about it now … and instead choose not to do so.
Who do you blame?
_____________
Ah yes. All that blame you used to throw at the ATM governments when they were in charge. Night after night and all day weekends. Those were the days 😉
Yet another poll showing the mighty ALP in an election winning position
go kick rocks whiny losers
YouGov/Sky News Pulse Poll:
2PP = ALP 53 (-2) ON 47 (+2)
2PP = ALP 54 (-1) LNP 46 (+1)
PV = ALP 29 (-1) ON 27 (+1) LNP 19 (0) GRN 13 (0) OTH 12 (0)
Essential Poll:
2PP = ALP 46 LNP 47 Undecided 7
PV = ALP 31 (+1) ON 24 (+2) LNP 24 (-2) GRN 10 (-1) OTH 11 (0)
YouGov/TAI Poll:
PV = ALP 28 (-7) ON 26 (+20) LNP 21 (-11) GRN 13 (+1) OTH 11 (-3)
Yes, these polls and the developing trend are certainly great for Labor /s
Sceptic @ #1425 Tuesday, March 24th, 2026 – 10:16 pm
So ON polling hasn’t translated into actual seats for the party?
I see from the ABC that ON hasn’t won a single seat off Labor. Which leads me to wonder at all the handwringing….
Scepticsays:
This election was a disaster for ON
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There should be a stupidity tax.
Oh LOL! When Labor was in opposition P1 was in full blame Labor mode for shit the Coalition government was perpetrating.
Honestly, this is why I long ago deemed P1 a troll and not worthy of response or reaction.
^^ Another whinger crushed under the big wheels of the ALP juggernaut
Meth addiction often creates feelings of euphoria.
mew mew mew hope your kitty kat isn’t too sore
nath says:
Tuesday, March 24, 2026 at 10:24 pm
Meth addiction often creates feelings of euphoria.
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And how’s that working out for you, nath? 🙂
ON didnt see seats match their vote because, in part, a lack of preference flows. Good thing thats not going to change at all and wait o no…
NSW Liberal leader Kellie Sloane refuses to rule out One Nation preference deal
Now that ON has demonstrated that it can get votes, it wont be long till certain other parties start doing the maths on votes gained vs reputational loss… we have already seen the old LNP guard in Victoria make that argument, and now NSW is starting to show it as well.
But hey, obviously the situation for SA Labor at a state level is the exact same for Federal Labor /s
I go back to what I’ve been saying for ages now. The Liberals need to rebuild their party into something the mainstream wants to support.
It’s clear the mainstream doesn’t want ON, and it doesn’t want the Greens either. But it isn’t tenable for the mainstream to continue to vote Labor over the longer term.
For now Labor appears to be the party of the metro areas. The Libs need to shake of the Alex Antics and the more hardline reactionaries in their partyroom and start pitching to the centre.
If I was in ON I would be very excited by the SA results.
What happens when the ALP PV is around 30 or perhaps a dash lower? And you’d have to think they will get better results in QLD and NSW.
@Miskal at 10:29pm
NSW has Optional Preferential voting. Preference deals don’t matter as much there. Voters can simply vote “1” One Nation and have their ballot exhaust if they wish and it’d still be counted as a formal vote.
The more complex situation is Victoria which has Full Preferential Voting, just like SA. And Jess Wilson, a supposed “Moderate” would be torn between a preference deal with One Nation which would piss off her fellow Moderates, and declining one, which would piss off her rightwing ratbag faction, which she secured in the first place to defeat Brad Battin as leader.
Evidently when ALP PV is around 29 they win 53-47 against cooker nation because at that point the NLP is third. Bad luck seethers, wouldn’t wanna be ya.
Nath is PBs best drug supplier.
Omar Comin’says:
Tuesday, March 24, 2026 at 10:43 pm
Evidently when ALP PV is around 29 they win 53-47 against cooker nation because at that point the NLP is third. Bad luck seethers, wouldn’t wanna be ya.
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Yeah, going from nowhere to losing 47-53 to Labor after replacing the Liberals as the main Opposition. Another disaster for ON!
And fence sitter.
Kirsdarke at 10.36 pm
The other Victorian player is the Nats. They are most vulnerable to the Hanson cult. Do they have more sense of their self-interest than the SA Libs?
Seven years ago a Lib apparatchik could claim that Lib preferences are rarely counted. That is not the case currently, as SA showed. Barnett warned the Libs, but they forgot. See:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-21/one-nation-liberals-nationals-preferences-election/10922566
big wheels keep on turning
A perspective on twitter, on what the mango Mussolini is doing.
—++
Let me explain what just happened
5 minutes before the President announced a halt to attacks on Iran… someone placed a $1.5 BILLION bet on stocks going up and dumped $192 million in oil.
5 minutes…
These trades were 4 to 6 times larger than anything else in the entire market. Whoever did this wasn’t guessing. You don’t risk $1.5 billion on a hunch.
There was zero public indication this announcement was coming. No leaks. No press. Nothing. The only people who knew were in the room when the decision was made.
Someone in that room picked up a phone.
And within minutes they made more money than most Americans will earn in a thousand lifetimes. In a single trade. On a war that cost you $4+ a gallon gas and $16 billion in tax dollars.
American citizens funded this war. Politicians are profiting from it.
This is not the first time. Every major announcement from this administration has had massive suspicious trades right before it dropped. Tariff reversals. Policy shifts. War decisions.
This is the most blatant insider trading operation in the history of American politics. It’s not even close. And it’s happening over and over in broad daylight.
You would go to federal prison for trading on a tip from your cousin. These people are front running war decisions with billion dollar bets and nobody will ever ask a single question.
Nobody will be investigated. Nobody will be charged. By tomorrow this will be buried under the next satisfying headline. Just like last time. And the time before that.
The game is rigged. And they’re not even trying to hide it anymore…
I remember when Rudd got into power, and that the LNP would be in the wilderness for at least a decade. I remember how lifelong members (parents included) of Labor laughed when Abbott took over the Liberals; oh he is crazy, and not in touch with the centrist voter.
Remember how quickly the polls turned? And that was before the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd knifefights.
If you think that ON is too extreme for enough voters in the right places to switch to them, then you havnt learned anything from whats happening around the globe, nor how history works.
Again, in a month and a half I suspect the polling will show a very different story of a ON vs Labor head to head, and that the Labor right flight will be at risk.
I mean, its not like theres going to be the escalation of a massive cost of living crisis as the Iran war and consequences continue throughout the global economy, with additional rate rises.
nath at 10.46 pm
Seldom has the gap between capacity and expectations been as big as with the Hanson cult.
The TAB, which used to do deal mainly with horses, has them now as almost favourites for the Farrer by-election.
If Gusgate Taylor and Canavan don’t preference the Hanson cult, it is out of the running.
Hanson is a cult. Lets face it.
It’s kind of funny what people think on here at times, over the top but funny
Goll, banning gambling advertising isn’t about pushing it underground like the bad old days, although more should definitely be done about illegal overseas providers.
Kirsdarke the Greens don’t want to shut down the fossil fuel industry overnight, the first very important steps are to stop it growing and tax it right
Essential hates the Greens, we always poll a few points worse on there
Sadly I think the poll with One Nation ahead of Labor is getting closer although it’s interesting that several polls have the LNP ahead of One Nation again while others go strongly that other way
Bring on Farrer and Nepean for the next electoral tests
Goodnight All