In among the hubbub of the South Australian election, DemosAU has unleashed one of its occasional multi-level regression and post-stratification polls, designed to project seat outcomes based on their demographic characteristics. Its projection is (deep breath) for Labor to win 77 to 86 seats, One Nation to win 46 to 55, the Coalition to win nine to 17 (including zero to two for the Nationals), the Greens to win zero to three, and two to six to go to others. This is based on vote shares of Labor 29%, One Nation 27%, Coalition 21% and Greens 12%. The surveying was conducted from Janury 13 to March 3 from a sample of 8484.
The filthy mullahs got their comeuppance thanks’ be to Allah…
These MRP seat polls are not making much sense, this far out of the 2028 federal election
One nation primary vote at the 2025 federal election was 6.6%
if one nation primary in the opinion polling is around 26%
The majority of the so called hypothetical dubious swing to one nation is coming
from the the federal lib/nats combined primary vote 11%
One nation is competing against the federal lib/nats
26% is not going to gain more seat 43 seats, considering lib/nats at the 2025 federal election – 43 seats with a combined primary vote of 31.8%
I bet a schooner ON don’t win more seats than the Coalition.
Demos are click bait & do a disservice to Democracy by giving the mad woman with Orange Hair credibility
NYT..
Hegseth Invokes Divine Purpose to Justify Military Might
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has imbued U.S. military actions with a Christian moral underpinning that suggests they are divinely sanctioned.
The Rapture is an eschatological (end-times) concept held by some Christians, particularly those of American evangelicalism, consisting of an event when all dead Christian believers will be resurrected and, joined with Christians who are still alive, together will rise “in the clouds, to meet the Lord in the air
If there was a god Trump’s would be assassin wouldn’t have missed
From previous Open thread
Cowards, we will remember: Trump slams Nato over lack of support in Iran war
Donald Trump slammed Nato allies as “cowards” for not backing the US-Israeli war against Iran, saying the alliance is a “paper tiger” without the US.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/donald-trump-slams-nato-cowards-lack-support-us-iran-israel-war-2884962-2026-03-20
From previous Open thread
Trump stunned by intelligence claim that Mojtaba Khamenei may be gay: Report
According to a report by the New York Post, US intelligence suggested Mojtaba may have had a long-term relationship with a man who served as his childhood tutor. The news outlet said the claim was revealed to it by two intelligence community officials and a person close to the White House.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/trump-stunned-by-intelligence-claim-that-iran-new-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei-may-be-gay-says-report-2882957-2026-03-17?utm_source=Taboola&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=recirculation
From previous Open thread
India Today News
On Thursday, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Japan and Canada pledged in a joint statement to join “appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.” However, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz indicated that such efforts would depend on an end to active combat.
French President Emmanuel Macron said after a European Union summit in Brussels that defending international law and promoting de-escalation was “the best we can do,” adding, We are not party to the conflict and therefore France will never take part in operations to open or liberate the Strait of Hormuz in the current context.”
Chuck died after news broke that he suffered a medical emergency and was taken to hospital, according to TMZ.
Christian God should punish the likes of Trump and Hegseth.
Trump is almost 80 years of age and got away with all heinous deeds. We
We will see what happens to Hegseth.
People on PB and elsewhere criticise Iranian Mullahs for imposing their values and will on the general Iranian public. What is the difference between Trump and Hegseth and Iranian Mullahs?
I think Trump and Hegseth worse than Iranian Mullahs.
Polling 6 weeks prior to an election should be banned …for the sake of Democracy.. … please discuss
Are we supposed to know who Chuck is?
Ven says:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 6:17 am
It would appear the EU have told Trump & the US go fuck yourselves.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/pete-hegseth-police-report-assault-trump-cabinet-b2651139.html
Do You say that because you think people are influenced by polling in how they vote or it will cause unnecessary social unrest?
If people are so fickle that they can be influenced by polling and change their behaviour, then those kind of people are weak.
Ven says:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 6:32 am
Precisely … as in the reason the media were encouraged to not mention case of suicide as it encouraged copy cat acts..
In the case of giving ON an “air of credibility” it encourages voters to copy others acts of insanity.
Ven
SMH
Chuck Norris, martial arts master and actor, dies at 86
The headline claims he was was a “ cultural ikon”, he wasn’t .
https://www.thedailybeast.com/obsessed/how-chuck-norris-went-so-maga-people-thought-he-was-an-insurrectionist/
How Chuck Norris Went So MAGA People Thought He Was an Insurrectionist
CN just another idiot
World News & Politics Patrol:
Putin offers to stop sharing intel with Iran if US cuts off Ukraine: https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-offers-stop-intel-iran-condition-us-cuts-off-ukraine/
Trump calls NATO “cowards” over lack of support in Iran war: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-calls-nato-cowards-over-lack-support-iran-war-2026-03-20/
Ukrainian FPV Drone Downs $16M Russian Ka-52 Helicopter: https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukrainian-fpv-drone-downs-16m-russian-ka-52-helicopter-near-pokrovsk-video-17089
Ukraine Slams Costly US Tactics: Millions Spent to Down Cheap Drones: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/72300
Switzerland halts weapons exports to US due to Iran war, citing neutrality: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/switzerland-halts-weapons-exports-us-due-iran-war-citing-neutrality-2026-03-20/
US to deploy thousands of additional troops to the Middle East: https://www.reuters.com/world/us-deploy-thousands-additional-troops-middle-east-officials-say-2026-03-20/
U.S. says Cuba is prohibited from taking Russian oil as two tankers head to island: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/20/cuba-crisis-fuel-tankers-russia-oil-gas-energy-us-trump.html
Which Iranian Air Defense System Targeted F-35 and Why russia Was Clearly Involved: https://en.defence-ua.com/news/which_iranian_air_defense_system_targeted_f_35_and_why_russia_was_clearly_involved-17891.html
Trump Team Changed a Report to Hide How Bad DOGE Made Things: https://newrepublic.com/post/208020/donald-trump-changed-report-doge-social-security
Trump admits Dems will win Congress & presidency unless he’s allowed to disenfranchise voters: https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/03/admits-dems-will-win-congress-presidency-unless-hes-allowed-to-disenfranchise-voters/
MAGA has been swooning over a beautiful Army soldier and her pro-Trump message. She is AI: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/maga-ai-us-soldier-instagram-account-trump-b2942600.html
‘Multiple waves’ of unauthorized drones recently spotted over strategic US Air Force base: https://abcnews.com/International/multiple-waves-unauthorized-drones-spotted-strategic-us-air/story?id=131245527
GOP Senate candidate on rising gas prices: ‘Maybe you take one less trip to Starbucks’: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5792145-michele-tafoya-senate-candidate-gas-prices-iran-war/
Global oil price stuck in triple digits. Goldman Sachs says it may stay there for years: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hnk
US responsible for deadly missile strike on Iran school, preliminary inquiry says: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/11/iran-war-missile-strike-elementary-school
Morning all. As I said on the other thread, the USA has shown no intention of sending ground forces into Iran, or using ships to convoy tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. They do not have sufficient forces present (troops and ships) to do either. Now the EU nations plus Canada and Japan have said the same.
Contrary to Trump’s nonsense post on Truth Social, this is because the Iran war is far from over, Iran remains difficult to invade and the Strait remains difficult to protect tankers in. So there seems no prospect of the oil blockade ending.
We are at an impasse and it is one that is damaging the world economy.
I never liked Chuck Norris.
I also don’t like Steven Seagal.
HH DP
Switzerland has shown that they are not COWARDS. They stood up to Trump bullying. 🙂
At least MRP’s are more interesting than The Keys or whatever they’re called
It’ll be interesting to see where One Nation preferences go both today and more generally. If they are genuinely an anti-major / “uni-party” vote I wonder if the Greens will get more than expected?
Noting I’d feel a little dirty winning seats off them
We live in interesting times
News overnight that US boots on the ground are getting closer and Israel is bombing Syria suggests 3 weeks of the illegal war is just the beginning
While I am on the topic of defense failures, the UK end of the AUKUS deal remains as problematic as ever. The recent early return of HMS Anson to UK confirms that UK does not have enough working submarines nor the capacity to build them any faster.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/the-weakest-link-australias-submarine-hopes-depend-on-the-uk-but-britannia-no-longer-rules-the-waves?CMP=aus_bsky
Critical aspects of AUKUS like UK investment in higher sub building production remain future promises rather than funded realities. The design is still not complete. There is no announced timeline for when it will be completed.
HH DP
There you go. Only a AI bot can be aTrump messenger. 🙂
Vale Chuck Norris. Your spirit lives on in my two cats Chuck and Norris, and more recently my two new pet parrots, Brexit and Trump.
As per MSNOW, over 2000 people in 14 countries are killed due to Iran war.
Peter Hartcher quotes Ken Henry in this article abaout the perfect timing for the Labor government to take decisive action.
“Here’s another such opportunity,” he tells me. One simple example, he says, is to impose a federal tax on fossil fuel exports. It could raise $40 billion a year in revenue and push local gas prices lower. A similar effort to tax mining profits helped destroy the Rudd government but, says Henry, it “should be child’s play now”.
Why? “Because people are experiencing the pain of rising energy prices and seeing the energy companies taking billions in superprofits. When Kevin Rudd tried to tax mining superprofits in 2010, people weren’t experiencing high fuel costs, and they believed the narrative that the mining industry was underwriting Australian prosperity. They don’t believe that today.”
He’s not wrong!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-not-the-crisis-the-pm-wants-but-it-s-the-opportunity-he-needs-20260320-p5quim.html
Regarding who’ll come out on top in the world economy I was going make the same point.
However the same can be said of the US. The southern border migrations are actually keeping their population growth above water, but probably not forever.
The biggest difference is that the US isn’t automating as fast as China. China is putting more into national level infrastructure.
Both are investing heavily in AI. US is doing the rolled gold version, whilst China is doing a budget version. Results seem to be similar.
Access to natural resources is similar, if slightly differently distributed. China is adjusting its lack of carbon based petrochemicals via renewables.
Most world economic systems are keyed into the US structures. China is setting up a parallel payment system.
I’d say they’ll battle along as equals for a good 50-80 years at least. At which point the planets human demographics, climate change impacts, and energy sources will determine the outcome.
I’ll put my money on China in 2100, but I reckon we’ll be in a highly regionalised world at that point. But probably the balance will have moved off the new world and back to the Eurasian continent.
I’ll be 127 by then and looking forwards to the NYE party.
And Hartcher nicely sums us One Nation – “One Nation is not a problem-solving party. It’s a protest party. It appeals to anger and it sells blame. Hanson originally wanted to victimise Asians, then Indigenous Australians, lately Muslims. It has no solutions, only scapegoats.
Chuck Norris has been said to have died, of course Chuck is so tough he just took over Deaths job and was last seen riding into the sunset on Harley Davidson with a scythe
Why should US ‘Allies’ support US in US-Israel illegal war?
When a Japanese reporter, accompanying Japanese PM to her WhiteHouse visit, asked Trump why he did not inform Japan in advance about Iran war, Trump said it was a ‘surprise’ attack and went on to say Japanese know about surprise attack citing Pearl Harbour attack when Japanese PM was beside him.
That is how he keeps humiliating US allies and another is my @6:14 am post.
Vale Chuck Norris. He was a great force for force.
If Chuck Norris were alive in Iran now, things would turn out as well as the Vietnam War did.
Mostly Interested: by 2100, China will have perhaps less than 700 million people, of which a very high proportion will be geriatrics who can no longer work. The US will still have a population close to today’s maybe a little more, due to migration and conservatives having more children. There is no way China can win an economic showdown.
America “seems” behind on infrastructure because its people don’t want their taxes wasted on vanity projects like bullet trains and light rail. The Chinese don’t have a choice: in a communist country real tax rates are north of 90%.
Despite what we think about Elon Musk, it seems the about to launch Tesla Semi might be the right solution at the right time..
…..
https://www.wsj.com/business/logistics/truckers-tesla-fans-semi-b0a66e6e?st=zuWqPi&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
The first real test of the polling surge for ON, and the MRP extrapolated translation to seats about to be tested tonight…
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2026/03/20/the-recession-we-didnt-have-talk-about
Hahaha
“I already talked about the semi, so I mean timing wise I am guessing that we will probably reach scale production on the semi in about 2 years, maybe 18 months, but probably about 2 years.” – Musk, 2018
“It’s time to go all out and bring the Tesla Semi to volume production” – Musk, 2020
“Tesla 500 mile range Semi Truck starts shipping this year” – Musk, 2022
“We’re tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla Semi in North America” – Musk, 2022
…
Ven says:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 7:02 am
The US announces 10,000% tariff on Swiss Watches
SA will be a show case for preferential voting. For the SA voters in many seats your second preference will probably be more important than your primary vote.
Insiders Sunday, 22 Mar
David Speers joins Paul Sakkal, Clare Armstrong and Greg Brown to discuss the SA Election and One Nation’s support, surging petrol prices and another interest rate rise, the impact of the Middle East War plus economic reform.
GUEST : Chris Bowen – Energy Minister
Yes getting EV semis to market is important. Tesla isn’t alone ..
I assume it’s missing am aerodynamic tweet or 2
pp’s uncle has this article:
https://www.afr.com/politics/one-nation-believes-it-has-already-won-the-south-australian-election-20260318-p5oo16 or https://archive.is/Rv819
-> Sounds like loser talk to me.
Vensays:
Friday, March 20, 2026 at 9:17 pm
It is existential crisis for Iran and Lebanon whether you like it or not.
Some say on PB say that they care about Iran women and girls but it appears they don’t care about Iranian people because they support Iran war.
Shit post. From someone who has dropped the ‘Indian Nice’ façade.
Elon, while high on ketamine, probably has dreams of selling trucks to martians. Meanwhile, electric trucks ended up with half the market share in China, last December.
My HTV session is on early today at the SA poll. See you later bludgers!
Socrates says:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 7:49 am
My HTV session is on early today at the SA poll. See you later bludgers!
________
May you have a democracy sausage of your choice with plentiful condiments!
My vote in India V China V USA actually goes to India.
They also have 1 Billion people but are like the US in that they have a democracy as well. They are also supplying the brain power, cheap IT business model and geostrategic ability to walk both sides of the street with the other great powers to their own advantage. I see this as eventually propelling them past China (who will eventually fall by the wayside as a result of a too rigid One Party State structure that doesn’t allow a thousand flowers to bloom), and America, who are going into a period where their politics has been captured by religious nutjobs, like Iran, and is restrained by an archaic political system which refuses to rectify itself, also due to its capture by the same religious industrial complex.
India is possessed of fine minds who will always put India first(you just have to read Ven’s contributions here to understand that innate mindset), even whilst spreading their diaspora around the world and all that involves and evolves into.
Also, just in general as a way to tackle the decay of democracy and its capture by religious zealots, religious institutions should have been taxed ages ago. They’ve long since used the majority of their funds for good works and instead have fed them into accumulating political and economic power.
Hard Being Green says:
Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 7:02 am
At least MRP’s are more interesting than The Keys or whatever they’re called
It’ll be interesting to see where One Nation preferences go both today and more generally. If they are genuinely an anti-major / “uni-party” vote I wonder if the Greens will get more than expected?
Noting I’d feel a little dirty winning seats off them
We live in interesting times
News overnight that US boots on the ground are getting closer and Israel is bombing Syria suggests 3 weeks of the illegal war is just the beginning
________
Hello #25in25. While I am willing to entertain horseshoe theory, are you suggesting circle theory? 🙂
Based on the kinds of people One Nation is preselecting, just imagine a parliament filled with 46-55 of those MPs.
Hmmmm…. Decisions for South Australians today..
As someone who maintains youthful luxurious golden locks, I admire Chuck Norris for never going grey.
The concept of a parliamentarian being arrested on the floor of parliament on an outstanding warrant, if that is allowed, may be closer to reality if a lot of ONs are elected
And now for something completely different.
Have you had your shingles vaccine? They are free for most people over 65 years but recommended for over 50 years (over 18 years for immunocompromised).
I linked this article late last year on the decreased risk of dementia: https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(25)01256-5
But this research on decreased cardiovascular events is worth paying attention to when the paper comes out: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/03/260319044659.htm
“They examined {American} adults age 50 years or older with atherosclerotic disease between 2018-2025. The analysis included 123,411 people who had received at least one dose of the Shingrix or Zostavax vaccine and an equal number who had not been vaccinated….{Vaccinated participants} were 46% less likely to experience a major adverse cardiac event and 66% less likely to die from any cause {between one month and one year after vaccination}. In addition, their risk of heart attack dropped by 32%, stroke by 25%, and heart failure by 25%.
EDIT: Shingles not singles vaccine 🙂