Two late results from South Australia make it four out of four polls from the last week of the campaign with One Nation ahead of the Liberals:
• Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll has the Liberals on 16% of the primary vote, their consolation being that this is two points higher than the Newspoll result from the start of the campaign. Labor is down four to 40%, One Nation down two to 22% and the Greens steady on 12%, and others up four to 10%. Peter Malinauskas is down two on approval to 65% and up four on disapproval to 31%, while Ashton Hurn is respectively up four to 43% and steady on 35%, for all the good the improvement seems to have done for the Liberals. Malinauskas leads 64-22 on preferred premier, in from 67-19. Newspoll’s policy appears to be not to provide two-party numbers when One Nation is running second. The poll was conducted last Thursday to this Wednesday from a sample of 1048.
• A DemosAU/Ace Strategies poll for InDaily has Labor at 37%, significantly moderating the 43% recorded in its last poll four weeks ago, with One Nation up four to 23%, the Liberals down one to 17% and the Greens down one to 11%. Peter Malinauskas records personal ratings of 49% positive, 31% neutral and 20% negative, while Ashton Hurn is respectively at 21%, 58% and 21%, and Cory Bernardi is at 20%, 44% and 36%. Malinauskas leads Hurn 56-21 on preferred premier. Like Newspoll, the poll was conducted last Thursday to this Wednesday, the sample in this case being 1242.
Three of this week’s four polls have broken down their results by inner metropolitan, outer metropolitan and regional, as detailed on the table below, and the story they tell is consistent enough that no more need be added to my earlier analysis of the Fox & Hedgehog result, which concluded that Labor could potentially sweep the board in Adelaide, Bragg being the most likely Liberal hold-out. The situation in the regions is a good deal harder to read, with One Nation needing to overcome Labor preferences and a number of strong independents to make anything out of its commanding primary vote. The report by David Penberthy in The Australian accompanying the Newspoll result rates its strongest chances as Narungga, Hammond, Flinders and Ngadjuri.
| ALP | LIB | ON | GRN | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inner Metro | |||||
| Fox & Hedgehog | 45 | 19 | 15 | 13 | 8 |
| YouGov | 42 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 8 |
| DemosAU | 44 | 19 | 15 | 13 | 9 |
| Outer Metro | |||||
| Fox & Hedgehog | 44 | 12 | 20 | 11 | 13 |
| YouGov | 45 | 17 | 21 | 10 | 7 |
| DemosAU | 38 | 15 | 24 | 10 | 13 |
| Regional | |||||
| Fox & Hedgehog | 22 | 25 | 28 | 8 | 17 |
| YouGov | 24 | 21 | 27 | 13 | 15 |
| DemosAU | 23 | 15 | 39 | 9 | 14 |
UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): One last poll comes from Resolve Strategic, which it describes as “experimental” on the grounds that respondents were met with an interactive AI voice. Their caution is no doubt informed by the fact that the poll has an even higher One Nation vote than everyone else, at 28%, with Labor coming in well below par on 32%, the Liberals about evens at 18% and the Greens on 10%. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 1112.
There was an error in the text in the Rob Harris article when they posted it, its 32 not 31 for ALP, the text now reads…
“A new experimental AI poll, conducted by Resolve Political Monitor on March 16, underscores the scale of the challenge. The survey of 1112 registered voters – involving a phone interview between respondents and an AI voice – has 32 per cent giving Labor their first preference, with One Nation on 28 per cent, the Liberals trailing on 18 per cent, the Greens on 10 per cent and others 11 per cent. It has a margin of error of 2.9 per cent.”
Thanks Spence for explaining. 🙂
One Nation has had to dump a candidate the night before the election for being on sex charges in the UK.
That might help reduce ON vote a bit. Well you’d like to think it would.
Some are saying McBride is a chance despite being on home detention for DV
Considering how much Gina and Pauline love rapist Trump, they might make Aoi Baxter their new leader in SA!
I’m surprised they let a guy with a Japanese name run for one nation.
“”I had hoped his ship had sunk on the way back to Australia,” the manager said.”
Ouch.
That AI poll is a real worry.
It might be a lot closer than everyone is thinking.
The media have been talking about a Labor landslide, but this might move votes to ON as people might be more of a “well if it’s a win for Labor, my vote for ON won’t matter”
Worse situation would be a lib wipe out and left with ON as opp.
I did speculate yesterday that Mali’s subdued ‘confrontation’ with Pauline might have been down to his knowledge of a poll revealing ON gaining ground . Maybe, but in any event I hope ON gets 3 LC seats.
I do hope that poll’s not accurate but I cannot dismiss it outright. While I can’t vouch for AI polling (whatever that entails), I have no reason yet to dismiss its results (the method is untested). We’ll find out tomorrow.
That said, I will not be shocked if the numbers look like that or even worse. The last week has been a dream run for One Nation. Fuel prices and shortages are causing more anxiety that feeds populists and they’ve gotten so much legitimacy, with puff pieces about how they’re sticking up for the little guy and Labor people already softening on them. Hanson is being portrayed as a confident national leader coming to visit, while Albanese and Taylor are both (understandably) absent.
Again, I don’t really know (nobody does) and hopefully tomorrow night isn’t as bad as it could be but I am going to be anxious tomorrow.
Oh and even if Labor still win government with a huge HoA majority (which that’s what most here on this site will solely focus on), I’ll also be biting my nails over the LC vote, especially if the primaries in that poll are accurate (remembering that parties often have even lower primaries in the LC vote.)
SA Voter at 6.37 pm
“Worse situation would be a lib wipe out and left with ON as opp.”
Why is that worse? For about a generation the SA Libs have been infested by RW nutters, which has led to their current mess.
If Ms Hurn is relying on Labor voters to get her above third, when her primary vote was 51.5% in 2022, then she is a no hoper who deserves to lose.
Remember that the Hanson cult underperforms polling, except for the 1998 Qld election. The reason is that much of its polling support is like froth and bubble, based on a disgruntled protest response without considering the available local candidates.
This time the Hanson cult has huge resources due to Barnaby’s rich list, and an easy run from the media. If they can’t win a lower house seat, then they will have flopped.
Country seats are loyal to members who are locals, which is why crims like Troy Bell and Fraser Ellis kept getting re-elected. If Ashton Hurn loses her seat based in the tight-knit Barossa Valley where her family have been well known in sport and local government for generations, then the Liberal party may as well disestablish itself in SA.
I have a fear that when people say that One Nation will win no seats at all that it’s going to be like the Trump 2016 election where they end up with somewhere inbetween 3 and 5 seats. The biggest thing to do to combat the far-right is to not underestimate their level of support.
If one nation are polling 20%, it shows that 1/5 of the electorate are complete drongos; nothing new about that. (yes, I have a mirror 🙂 ) and that number won’t get too many seats. With the current obsession re: one nation, no one has looked at the young, progressive people coming through in Labor’s ranks. Gender balance, diversity and track records out there in their Communities already. And a tip of the hat to the Labor retirees also. The Government will be returned and the media, (bless ’em) will tell us it’s not all good news for Labor. Cheers!
The Sloan Zone’s latest on the election tomorrow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgSC3BHwhok
Same worry for me SAvoter. 🙁
Nothing is done till it is done.
Same concerns here.
Remember, PHON is the biggest threat to our democracy.
From what I’ve seen and heard, the ON phenomenon isn’t going away, if anything, it’s getting stronger. The health minister email blunder might be starting to hurt Labor, plus anger at oil prices, interest rate rises etc. There was an article earlier this week about the Premier trying to get the GP transferred to Adelaide after the Bahrain and Saudi ones were cancelled because of the war in Iran. I mean, 20% of the world’s oil supply is cut and all he can think about is a car race?! Not sure how that went down in voter land but seems really out of touch to me, when people are worrying whether they’ll be able to fill their car and get to work.
“When the war in Iran broke out and we saw the events that were unfolding, it struck me as pretty obvious that that would represent a major challenge for F1 to race their scheduled events in Bahrain and Saudia Arabia,” the Premier told reporters this morning.
https://www.indailysa.com.au/news/just-in/2026/03/18/premier-reveals-sa-push-for-middle-east-f1-events
Spence at:
Friday, March 20, 2026 at 3:48 pm
PLEASE do not tell Dr D that they are not correct to assert that someone should vote for the candidate they actually prefer in a compulsory preferential system . You have a theory. Fine. But it is not more than a theory. Voting for someone other than you preferred candidate in a preferential system is IRRATIONAL
Your theory contains 1 x “normally”, a “could”, and “if” and a preference flow assumption. One or more of these things may not occur. Then your theory doesn’t come to pass
And your theory is for what?? Denying the will of the voters? How very democratic of you.
JUST VOTE FOR YORU PREFERRED CANBIDATE AND FORGET ABOUT STRATEGIC VOTING. THE ONLY PEOPLE ENCOURING YOU TO VOTE STRAEGICALLY ARE THOSE THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM YOU DOING DO. SO DON’T DO IT.
Posted today, Antony Green’s 2026 South Australian Election Preview
https://antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-south-australian-election-preview/
Kirsdarke at 8.53 pm
Mr Sloan Zone would benefit not only from reading history but also using a dictionary.
Dr Bonham gives a much more accurate description of the likely postcounts – messy. One of the virtues of the English language is that, usually, the simplest word is most precise.
Based on the polls, and without a recalibration for the historical tendency of the Hanson cult to underperform, Dr Bonham has a model suggesting Ms Hurn might be relegated to third, but he is tending to override that with common sense:
“The model says the Liberals could hold Bragg (8.1%) and continues to see Schubert (11.9%) as iffy because of the risk of Ashton Hurn being knocked out in third, though I think with personal vote effects including leader boost she probably survives on its numbers.”
In other words, he says Hurn survives even if the Hanson cult vote mirrors the polls.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/03/south-australia-2026-final-polls-still.html
He also says this, which is doubtful in one respect:
“Prominent indies tend to drain the One Nation vote because a minority of the current wave of support for the party is simply a rejection of the majors, from voters who may not be that ideologically attracted to One Nation but are past the point of caring about the things that used to turn people off said party. (Notably in DemosAU, among voters who consider themselves in the centre, the party is polling 26%).”
He has no way of knowing that what he calls a minority above is not a majority, i.e. of knowing that most of the reported support for the Hanson cult is other than a protest.
In other words, prominent indies would drain support for the cult more than he says.
Looks like Speirs’ drug conviction hasn’t harmed him that much (article behind a paywall)
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/state-election/why-queenslander-pauline-hansons-one-nation-is-poised-for-a-historic-vote-in-south-australias-state-election/news-story/fc0faad2945b2532ac380987fe8b6535
And ON have picked up another vote by someone who thinks she’s good for Indigenous Australians.
‘Mr Fraser says “I usually just draw a penis on the voting form” but this election he’ll be voting One Nation for the first time. “I’ve always liked Pauline, she’s outspoken and she’s always been up for the Australian people and for the Indigenous Australians,” he says.’
High Street. I’m a left voter but I prefer One Nation be wiped out. That means putting ON behind Liberals as both Labor and Greens have done.
Labor needs a 10% swing to win Schubert. That is a very long shot. On the other hand a very likely outcome is Labor One Nation and Liberal getting fairly similar first votes. And if Liberals finish third then ON will win based on observing the flow of Liberal preferences to ON in nearby booth scutinered in the May 2025 Federal Election.
No way is Labor likely to get 40% of Liberal preferences as suggested above.
Saying it in Capitals doesn’t make your analysis better.
Last time in Schubert, the Libs got 51.4% and One Nation got 6.8%. For the Libs to miss the top two, they have to drop below 33.3% – if you think the Libs are copping an 18% swing in their leader’s seat, they’re doomed and tactical voting won’t save them.
Mocking up a 3cp (Lib-ALP-ON) by just adding (ALP,Grn,Ind) and (ON,FF,Nat), you get 51.4-35.8-12.7. If there’s a 20% swing straight from Lib to ON, that becomes 31.4-35.8-32.7, where the Libs come third and ON presumably win on their prefs. If even 2% of that swing goes to Labor instead, ON stay in third. (If more, then Labor’s vote pushes into the 40s and they can think about winning it themselves.)
More accurately the margin in Schubert is nominally 11.9%. But added to that the donkey vote has flipped with Liberals benefiting this time which will add another 1% at least to the Labor task. Any takers?
High street
It wasn’t my comment. Sheesh. I can do without more hate mail!
I have made to comment about HTV or how I voted.
ON will win Schubert before Labor do.
Thank you Bird of paradox – finally a voice of reason in this seas of collective madness that is strategic voting. You have precisely hit upon the greatest flaw in strategic voting. If Labor is a chance of knocking the Liberal candidate out of the top two in any seat- then they have a chance of winning themselves.
Spence – Every time on this blog when I attempt to refute the “logic” of strategic voting, someone explains the “logic” to me again, as if I did not understand it. I get it. I have been posting against it here for around 3 years. But the logic of strategic voting collapses under its own weight in preferential system- that is the point. I am not doing any analysis – EITHER IN CAPITALS OR NOT. You are the only one doing the analysis and it is flawed. But because you believe in it, you can not see the flaws. I am not doing any analysis – just refuting the flawed logic of others.
The Demos AU MRP model forecasts today are very interesting. Basically, because on the very increased ON vote in teal seats, Labor now has a chance of outlasting the Teal and making the top two and the final count – in seats that currently have a 2PP Labor majority. But they might not do that, because people have got into a habit of voting strategically, and have deluded themselves – with the encouragement of partisan actors – that they are the smartest people in the room by doing so
Diogenes – you have done it again. At least twice in the last couple of hours. When we say Dr. D, we mean posts by Dr. Doolitte, not yours.
Read the whole blog before making assumptions…
High St
Soz. It’s because I actually am a doctor! Medical and PhD. I thought it was me.
All good!
The Crows’ loss won’t improve the psyche of many voters.
TT
Don’t handle the ball if someone else isn’t and is overrunning it. ESP if they are a Victorian team.
If ON finish ahead of Libs on first preferences, I will be the first change to the “duopoly” since WW1!!
Another thing that keeps on rattling around in my mind: most polls have Labor in the high 30s, down 1-2% on primary votes since 2022, so even if it’s a mega-landslide like WA 2021 in seat terms, it won’t be complete one-way traffic for them (WA Labor got 60%). There’ll be at least one case of “where the fuck did that independent come from?” somewhere. Maybe the mayor of Port Adelaide? Kieran Snape the ex-Green in Adelaide? David Speirs in Black? Some hyper-local campaign everyone missed?
Also, the Greens. Their vote is static and they don’t look like winning anything except maybe Heysen, but if the Libs are going down in flames there’d have to be a few ALP/Grn margins, surely? I’ll start with West Torrens.
That article seems to be silent on the subject of David Speirs, as far as I can see. Am I missing something?
Oops, wrong link, here is the article on Speirs
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/state-election/disgraced-mp-david-speirs-finds-forgiveness-from-voters-over-drug-conviction/news-story/a0278bb3296109ec89d52fae5bd3a2a4
Thanks for that.
William at 11.29 pm
Spiers’ drug conviction was much more serious than the conviction of Craig Garland, who did better at the 2025 Tassie election than when he first won from the outside lane.
There was TV footage of a very critical voter in a shopping centre directly telling the SA convict that he was and is a disgrace. It is likely that many voters share that view.
My predictions on changing seats from last election:
Labor to sweep Adelaide (6 seats from LIB).
Ngadjuri: Labor
Heysen: Labor
Hammond: Labor
Kavel: IND (Schulz)
Finniss: IND (Nicholson)
Mt Gambier: IND (Fatchen)
Mackillop: IND (McBride retain)
Flinders: IND (Petherick)
No real clue about the last 3 but going to predict because why not.
Total: LAB 38 LIB 2 IND 7
One Nation to get a respectable polling outcome in the high teens but no seats. They could win Chaffey or Flinders but I think that other candidates are more likely to be stronger.
Asha 12.09 am
There is nothing respectable about the Hanson cult, which is a foreign cul-de-sac in SA, foreign because it is basically a rump Qld import+ the racist bits of NSW, WA and ViC, and because it has always had only one theme, which is hatred of the (culturally defined) out-group of foreigners. Of course it is nonsensical gibberish, since First Nations people are included by the cult as cultural foreigners in their ancient lands.
There is much written in some academic circles about the rhetoric of “othering”, which is fabricating fake causes of real and imagined social problems. One doesn’t need to bother with that literature, just look at the Hanson cult as a typical, primitive case.
On polling, a useful comparison is with the Xenophon cult in 2018. It hit similar levels a few months out from the election, although it dropped before polling day. See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_South_Australian_state_election#Opinion_polling
On the eve of that election the Pollbludger aggregate had Mr X on 18%. He got just 14% and no lower house seats. There was a 5% lower vote in the reps than in the council.
See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_South_Australian_state_election
A similar outcome for the Hanson cult is likely, to be overshadowed by the massive Labor win.
The difference from 2018 is that the Hanson cult has had a dream media + funding run.
They will not get the same easy circumstances again. If they win no lower house seats after all the polling and media hype of recent months, that will definitely be a big fail.
SA voters, please don’t let Australia down by voting for PHON.
I know there was early voting and postal voting. But Election day voting is the biggest chunk of voting.
It’s a very lazy analysis of Pauline’s policy standpoint to label her and those who will vote for her as racist. She and her party have long rejected the Net Zero by 2050 cult, and argued for nuclear, coal and gas to power our economy. Given how it’s now obvious that this is the sensible way to go, it’s no surprise ON is ascending.
She has acknowledged that ON won’t form government, and the current objective – as she made clear to Mali – is to be in a position to bargain with a government. That’s why the LC outcome is critical.
So cheer up everyone.
Happy election day folks, it’s going to be fascinating in many ways
I enjoyed Kevin Bonham’s write up, always inciteful. I hope he is right and Ashton Hurn is safe. Ideally any Liberals who do hold on will be more moderate. How do they shake the power and influence of Antic?
Anyways, Kevin included a link to the Australian Election Forecasts Model, which I found to be interesting
Based on it, and all the polling, I won’t make any detailed predictions, I don’t know enough about the lay of the land in SA, but will say that while I’m expecting the Greens to not get a lower house seat I’m hopeful of Heyden and dreaming of Unley
1 in the upper house looks guaranteed, 2 would be awesome
Also hoping One Nation will wipe out but fear they’ll have wins and out poll the Liberals, despite winning less seats. A big night for independents.
Labor will win easily but their primary vote will have a 3 in front of it rather than a 4 leading to a 2PP vote, for what it’s worth, in the 50’s rather than 60’s
Popcorn needed and go the Tillies
There’s another win for ON in prospect. If the % of votes they attract match the % projected by the polls, this will squash the claims that ON’s polling is just fluff and not to be taken seriously. If ON wins in this sense, even the Labor/Greens coalition might adjust their energy policy, or, better still, cause this coalition to split.
Could be happy days ahead!
This election will go a long way to indicate the % of blinkered brains, outdated claptrap and bigotry that exists in SA and the rest of Australia.
The recent memory of the storm ravaged grid infrastructure being the catalyst for the introduction of the greater use of renewables and batteries to keep SA ahead of the game is still fresh.
The lucky country is sometimes beset by its cousin the stupid country.
I believe SA often export its excess electricity!
Headline in The Advertiser today.. “ON THE RUN NATION”. About ON candidate for Adelaide who is on the run from a “sexual touching” charge in UK.
Red dawn sadly labor will win.
One nation has had a lifetime of publicity with this election,so the worse case scenario is even if it struggles today its well positioned federally and elsewhere.
Libs need to be libs or One nation will do it for them.
Whoever thought having a rule saying A frames not to be displayed at polling booths before 8 am needs a new look.
7.30am at booth all parties are setting up A frames etc. Not a problem and no input from booth staff.
These are ON policies
Repealing the state-based Voice to Parliament
Oppose the renaming of places in SA with indigenous names
Ending subsidies for renewable related technologies
Build a coal power plant in Port Augusta
Support farmers in land-use conflicts – from residential encroachment and mining rights
Reduce energy and fuel costs for farmers
Restore live sheep exports
Removal of political and gender ideology from school curriculums
Tougher crime laws for repeat offenders – including support for programs helping at-risk youth
Lower immigration
Fix ambulance ramping
One is “fix ambulance ramping” but no plan on how to do it. They aren’t a serious opposition
I wonder if ON actually want to be the official opposition post-election. This election, where the ALP should have a healthy majority.
The increased scrutiny on their slate of tyro candidates will come at a cost of exposing their lack of experience, and on past evidence, lack of discipline via defections an internal ructions.
It would probably be better for them to lurk in the background and gain experience. The band-wagon effect of showing that a vote for ON can have results has to be measured against blunders that damage the brand nationally.
I doubt the ON machine will muse on such things and the voters of SA might force them to be the opposition, like it or not.
Totally superficial and unimportant question in the scheme of things:
Imagine this hypothetical scenario (that I’m not suggesting will actually happen): Let’s say One Nation do become the new opposition and they start being seen as the default conservative party (not just in SA but in Australia generally), and let’s say that this manages to sustain itself to the point that the Liberals go under (they can’t really win anywhere, their conservative MPs have jumped ship and maybe one or two small Ls stick around as independents while the rest jump ship to another party or try desperately to get a new force going.) Long story short: Liberal Party gone the way of the original UAP, and other non-Labor major parties. One Nation now is the replacement.
In that scenario, do we still assign the colour orange to One Nation on graphs and electorate maps etc. or do they get to be upgraded to blue? I know blue = right and red = left has been traditional but it’s by no means a hard rule and plenty of other countries don’t use that colour scheme. What do you think? (This is important to sort out NOW – not really.)
Antony’s early voting tracking: https://antonygreen.com.au/sa2026-tracking-the-early-vote/
By the end of early voting on Friday 20 19 March, there had been 466,364 early votes cast compared to a final tally of 212,466 in 2022. 35.4% of enrolled voters have already voted at EVCs with one day of early voting to come, compared to a final tally of 16.8% in 2022
The US is the other way around. That was an accident of TV graphics.
I think they stay orange.