South Australian polls: Newspoll and DemosAU

Tomorrow looks set to herald either a new dawn in South Australian politics, or a major failure on the part of the polling industry.

Two late results from South Australia make it four out of four polls from the last week of the campaign with One Nation ahead of the Liberals:

• Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll has the Liberals on 16% of the primary vote, their consolation being that this is two points higher than the Newspoll result from the start of the campaign. Labor is down four to 40%, One Nation down two to 22% and the Greens steady on 12%, and others up four to 10%. Peter Malinauskas is down two on approval to 65% and up four on disapproval to 31%, while Ashton Hurn is respectively up four to 43% and steady on 35%, for all the good the improvement seems to have done for the Liberals. Malinauskas leads 64-22 on preferred premier, in from 67-19. Newspoll’s policy appears to be not to provide two-party numbers when One Nation is running second. The poll was conducted last Thursday to this Wednesday from a sample of 1048.

• A DemosAU/Ace Strategies poll for InDaily has Labor at 37%, significantly moderating the 43% recorded in its last poll four weeks ago, with One Nation up four to 23%, the Liberals down one to 17% and the Greens down one to 11%. Peter Malinauskas records personal ratings of 49% positive, 31% neutral and 20% negative, while Ashton Hurn is respectively at 21%, 58% and 21%, and Cory Bernardi is at 20%, 44% and 36%. Malinauskas leads Hurn 56-21 on preferred premier. Like Newspoll, the poll was conducted last Thursday to this Wednesday, the sample in this case being 1242.

Three of this week’s four polls have broken down their results by inner metropolitan, outer metropolitan and regional, as detailed on the table below, and the story they tell is consistent enough that no more need be added to my earlier analysis of the Fox & Hedgehog result, which concluded that Labor could potentially sweep the board in Adelaide, Bragg being the most likely Liberal hold-out. The situation in the regions is a good deal harder to read, with One Nation needing to overcome Labor preferences and a number of strong independents to make anything out of its commanding primary vote. The report by David Penberthy in The Australian accompanying the Newspoll result rates its strongest chances as Narungga, Hammond, Flinders and Ngadjuri.

ALP LIB ON GRN OTH
Inner Metro
Fox & Hedgehog 45 19 15 13 8
YouGov 42 19 17 14 8
DemosAU 44 19 15 13 9
Outer Metro
Fox & Hedgehog 44 12 20 11 13
YouGov 45 17 21 10 7
DemosAU 38 15 24 10 13
Regional
Fox & Hedgehog 22 25 28 8 17
YouGov 24 21 27 13 15
DemosAU 23 15 39 9 14

UPDATE (Resolve Strategic): One last poll comes from Resolve Strategic, which it describes as “experimental” on the grounds that respondents were met with an interactive AI voice. Their caution is no doubt informed by the fact that the poll has an even higher One Nation vote than everyone else, at 28%, with Labor coming in well below par on 32%, the Liberals about evens at 18% and the Greens on 10%. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 1112.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

149 thoughts on “South Australian polls: Newspoll and DemosAU”

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  1. The regional rural communities, family orientated, rainfall restricted, occupier of semi arid landscapes, owners of marginal business models, export dependent, geopolitical pawns, together with blinkered outlooks are undergoing constant pressure for accommodating all the variables in their life.

    They are insecure and reactionary.

    Their landholdings are a constant burden, worth plenty as an asset, uneconomic conundrums beset with change on many levels.

    ON offers the hand of comfort, hope and the target for hate against change.

    Real estate and superannuation have made many Australians rich beyond their imaginations.

    The rural frailty, the rural foible. and the rural lifestyle are under threat.

    Pauline and her celebrity additions, plus the adaption of a victim mentality, have, after floundering over many years, become the medium of resistance..

    Pauline/Barnaby/Cory and the “white” assortment selection, all built on shonky foundations will remain protected until the “stupid proof fence” surrounding contorted outlooks collapses and the “folk” see a financially better alternative.

    The regional “sea gulls” with the loudest screech get the most promises.

    The early adapters to changing technology and modern algorithms in the bush will emerge as the winners.

    In the meantime the ON “cuckoo” clock will have its moment in the spotlight and may be around for a while longer.

  4. It’ll be interesting to see how it all plays out, there’s some crossover with the polling and some differences. DemosAU much stronger for One Nation in outer metro and regional areas. Hopefully they got it wrong

    I’m a little torn, while I’d love to see One Nation wipe out despite their polling maybe winning a seat or two on Liberal preferences might teach the Liberals more broadly it’s a mistake to preference them

    Fingers crossed the Greens can grab a seat and sneak a couple in the upper house, they are polling a couple of points higher than they got last time around

  5. The margin of error for the regional estimates is pretty high. Samples around 300-350 mean MoE must be around 7%.

    But the average of the various polls should be closer to mark.

  7. Hanson concerned about racism. I kid you not.

    “When we go to Coober Pedy and we talk to the people there, they’re glad that we’re there to talk about their power issues and their water issues and the lack of provision, the racial division that’s happening up there.”

  9. Will the Liberals continue to hold any seats in Adelaide after Saturday? Maybe only Bragg.
    Will One Nation take seats off the Liberals in regional South Australia? Maybe.
    Who will constitute the official opposition after tomorrow night? Maybe it’ll be a combination of a few Liberals, a few independents and 2 or 3 One Nation MPs.

  10. Diogenes @ #7 Friday, March 20th, 2026 – 7:45 am

    Hanson concerned about racism. I kid you not.

    “When we go to Coober Pedy and we talk to the people there, they’re glad that we’re there to talk about their power issues and their water issues and the lack of provision, the racial division that’s happening up there.”

    Classical downwards resentment. The same sentiment that makes people envious of those on welfare.

  12. Coober Pedy is a microcosm. They’re like, tiny South Australians that live underground. I assume that’s what microcosm means.

    Ok I think I’ve used up my comment quota for this thread.

  13. One of my acquaintances is all in on the One Hanson. I asked him
    “What specific policies and intents inspire you?”
    “for a start husband’s collecting centrelink payments for multiple wives and children, that’s a start.”

    I’m yet to find out what data he has to support this comment, whether he thinks this is a state matter, and whether he is for or against it.

  14. Had a tooth out this week so can’t eat crisps or drink alcohol tomorrow night. Why didn’t I check for elections when I made the appointment?

  15. There seems to have been an extraordinary number of opinion polls in this campaign with multiple different pollsters in the field.

  16. Eston – It is always the same BS. Back when I was doing data analysis for the Child Support agency a couple of decades ago, I had to find out how many women there were who were popping out multiple babies from multiple Daddies just to claim child support from them? The numbers with 4 or more cases was in the dozens. So it wasn’t a serious problem.

  17. BS Fairman, yes it’s obviously an issue well below the noise floor when you look at the data.

    A bit like the IQ of PH’s supporters.

    I found it particularly interesting that this non-issue was front of mind for him.

  18. My favourite ON anti renewables is the theory that rain is now not falling on my farm because as the rain clouds move over the solar farms the heat and light from the solar panels is causing the rain clouds to evaporate!

  20. Pauline Hanson also had a go at the Premier’s offensive we-need-migrants-to-wipe-your-bum comments:

    “Who’s going to feed you and bathe you and wipe your bum when you’re 90?” Mr Malinauskas said.

    On Wednesday, Ms Hanson told the premier: “That’s putting people down and I didn’t appreciate that.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-18/pauline-hanson-confronts-sa-premier-as-polling-shows-support/106469984

    The world is topsy turvey

  22. I am really concerned with PHON numbers in inner metro and outer metro areas. They are staggering numbers based on the background of Peter Malisnaukus being the most political leader in the country. They certainly ate into Liberal numbers but a slice of Labor numbers. I am really nervous with petrol and diesel prices rising.
    Come on SA people. Throw PHON into political scrapheap. Penberthy says PHON could win 4 seats. That is really concerning.

  23. That particular exchange was last month. It possibly looked worse if you see more of what he said, because it basically amounted to “We’ll get good jobs for your kids, and immigrants will do the jobs Aussie-born people don’t want to do”.
    It’s a true assessment of the way things stand. My grandma loved the workers at her aged care home, many of whom were fairly recent immigrants. I would not want that job. But the way the premier put it carried the idea that aged care work is beneath regular Australian-born people, so good thing we have immigrants to do those jobs, while kids of Aussies should aspire to build submarines.

  24. Democracy Sausagesays:
    Friday, March 20, 2026 at 8:37 am
    Will the Liberals continue to hold any seats in Adelaide after Saturday? Maybe only Bragg.
    Will One Nation take seats off the Liberals in regional South Australia? Maybe.
    Who will constitute the official opposition after tomorrow night? Maybe it’ll be a combination of a few Liberals, a few independents and 2 or 3 One Nation MPs.

    DS
    I want Liberals to be the main opposition and PHON getting 0 seats. If I am in Ashton Hurn seat, I will vote for her 1, Labor 2. Otherwise, Labor / Independent 1 depending upon the seat, Labor 2 if Independent 1, Greens 2 if Labor 1, Liberals above PHON in every seat.

  25. I think One Nation are filling the gap that the Democrats and SA Best occupied before in SA – an “up yours” to the two major parties. It’s a worry that that ON are far right instead of centre right like the other two, but that doesn’t seem to matter to a lot of people.

    A viable centrist party might fill that role, but that’s where the SA Labor party currently sits. Leaving the Libs squeezed from the Centre by the ALP and on the right by ON.

  27. Pretty sensible Editorial from the Tiser

    They endorse Labor enthusiastically for being centrist, pro business, anti Randa. They point out he failed badly on ramping and hydrogen, and the debt is a looming monster.

    And I agree with this

    “Mrs Hurn deserves commendation for pushing on in the face of insurmountable odds and for the class she has shown.
    She has been indefatigable, even as her federal party melted down, sucking oxygen from her.
    Frankly, her party is unworthy of Mrs Hurn.”

    And they rip Bernardi for wimping out and not running for a lower house seat.

    And this “any vote for One Nation is a protest ”

    Rarely will a News editorial be more in line with PBers.

  28. I just received an election survey by text message from ucomms.com.au

    Question 1: Have you already voted? 1 Yes, 2 No
    Question 2: Who will you vote for tomorrow? List of parties designated by numbers. 1 – 7

  30. That YouGov regional vote difference sticks out like dogs balls, particularly VS Demos.

    At least they aren’t all absolutely herded together, and that difference between YouGov and the other two will be highly consequential (for ON narratives, not the overall outcome) if any of them is spot on or if the truth lies in between them.

  31. Liberals have set up a negative campaign website and text messaging to voters at least in Newland.
    onenationchaos dot com
    My partner didn’t immediately realise at first glance that the text message wasn’t from one nation themselves so I’m sure a few may click through

  32. Dio

    Pretty sensible Editorial from the Tiser

    Yes I would agree. They were generous not mentioning the Writers Week fiasco for Malinauskus.

  33. shiftaling @ #31 Friday, March 20th, 2026 – 1:12 pm

    Liberals have set up a negative campaign website and text messaging to voters at least in Newland.
    onenationchaos dot com
    My partner didn’t immediately realise at first glance that the text message wasn’t from one nation themselves so I’m sure a few may click through

    Interesting. Very “Put Your Family First” there.

  34. In my opinion, when it comes to One Nation’s strategy, Bernardi is there to appeal to the far right weirdos and all the local candidates are there to focus on local grievances and frame their message about being an alternative to the major parties that “speaks commonsense”, appealing to the politically disengaged.

  35. Soc

    “ Yes I would agree. They were generous not mentioning the Writers Week fiasco for Malinauskus.”

    They did mention it. They said he did the right thing and showed integrity. And pissed off his leftward base.

    He’s been very good at keeping the left with him. He’s seen as pro nuclear, very pro development, ripping up trees for LIV, pro gas, covered up algal bloom and is anti free speech. I’m surprised the left aren’t more upset.

  36. Ven at 11.25 am, Diogenes at 12.31 pm

    V: “If I am in Ashton Hurn seat, I will vote for her 1, Labor 2.”

    Please understand preferential voting. The chances of your hypothetical vote counting against the Hanson cult candidate would be exactly the same if you voted 1 Labor, 2 Hurn.

    D: quote from ‘Tiser: “Frankly, her party is unworthy of Mrs Hurn.”

    Hurn supports preferencing the Hanson cult. She is unworthy of J.W. Howard.

  38. Dr D. Not correct. Labor normally poll much less than libs in Schubert but this time it could be close. Between Labor Liberal and ON.
    If ON is in top 2 and Labor finishes ahead of Hurn then ON will win on Lib preferences. If Labor finishes behind Hurn then Hurn will win with Labor preferences.
    Makes sense for Labor voters to vote 1 Hurn.

  39. Spence

    That was Ven, not me.

    I just voted. I’m always amazed at how well all the party volunteers get along. Steve Pallaras was there and the Labor and Lib candidates (they’re both very nice).

    It’s mainly when you get higher up that they get nastier by self selection but this campaign has been pretty clean.

  41. Diogenes. Yes Ven and Dr Doolittle. Both interstate so maybe lacking local info.

    And on poll workers at early voting yesterday – Labor, Liberal, One Nation and Family First

    including candidates apart from Liberal

    having very congenial discussion for a couple of hours late in day.

  42. I posted my 2026 SA election prediction in the wrong thread by mistake. Whoops. Hopefully you all don’t mind the repost…

    Labor starts with 29 seats (including Mawson, Dunstan and Black), LIB with 13 and IND with 5 (including Mackillop and Mount Gambier).

    ALP: 37 Seats (+8)
    LIB: 4 (-9)
    IND: 5 (-)
    ONP: 1 (+1)
    GRN: 0

    Tl;dr explanations
    ALP gains Morialta, Unley, Heysen, Ngadjuri, Hartley, Morphett, Colton and Hammond from LIB. It is possible they could gain Bragg from the Liberals, but it seems like the swings towards Labor in Adelaide may not be enough to wipe out the Liberal’s 8.2% margin. In addition, Labor could miss out on Heysen to the Greens and Hammond to Airlie Keen. Labor’s cap will be 39 seats (+ Bragg and Kavel), I can’t see them winning more than that.

    ONP picks up Chaffey from LIB and potentially win Mackillop, Narungga and Ngadjuri, with Schubert and Flinders on a really good night for them.

    Kregan and Bell’s chosen successors will win Kavel (despite Labor’s heavy campaigning) and Mount Gambier. Lou Nicholson will win Finniss and Nick McBride loses Mackillop to LIB. Meghan Petherick could win Flinders but I put it as LIB retain as I have not heard much from the campaign in that electorate.

  43. From Kevin on Bluesky

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinbonham.bsky.social/post/3mhhlrqrhxc26

    “#ResolvePM SA(state) “experimental AI poll” involving phone interview with AI voice
    ALP 31 L-NP 18 ON 28 GRN 10 others 11. Very different to other polls, see how that goes #saparli

    I’m at work and not in a position to convert that to seats but Labor would still win, ON would become a serious opposition possibly taking some ALP seats and the Liberals might get a seat somewhere.”

    I went looking for the poll and found this (nothing anywhere else). If this is closer to the result, its a big polling upset. If not, it could be an example of a Loud Tory or angry voter bias in the results, similar to who seems to respond more to SMS polls in the case of angry voters.

    https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/federal/the-south-australian-liberals-aren-t-just-staring-down-defeat-they-re-facing-a-wipeout-20260319-p5q2a7.html

    The South Australian Liberals aren’t just staring down defeat. They’re facing a wipeout
    Rob Harris
    March 20, 2026

    “A new experimental AI poll, conducted by Resolve Political Monitor on March 16, underscores the scale of the challenge. The survey of 1112 registered voters – involving a phone interview between respondents and an AI voice – has 32 per cent giving Labor their first preference, with One Nation on 28 per cent, the Liberals trailing on 18 per cent, the Greens on 10 per cent and others 11 per cent. It has a margin of error of 2.9 per cent.”

  44. If the regional numbers are correct then One Nation will have seats in the House of Assembly. Not only that, but the Greens will win Heysen as well. This could be the best election since the 1970s for minor parties in South Australia despite overall being a landslide victory for Labor.

  45. Dio

    They did mention it. They said he did the right thing and showed integrity. And pissed off his leftward base.

    Wow! That is more than “generous”.

  47. On the Resolve AI poll, without knowing how the sampling was one and if it was weighted to match overall demographics as per normal surveys, we don’t know what the poll is worth.

  48. Spencesays:
    Friday, March 20, 2026 at 3:48 pm
    Dr D. Not correct. Labor normally poll much less than libs in Schubert but this time it could be close. Between Labor Liberal and ON.
    If ON is in top 2 and Labor finishes ahead of Hurn then ON will win on Lib preferences. If Labor finishes behind Hurn then Hurn will win with Labor preferences.
    Makes sense for Labor voters to vote 1 Hurn

    ————————————————————

    Right wing preferences leak like a sieve, especially in state elections. You might find Labor get 40+% of Hurn’s preferences in that hypothetical event.

    As Antony Green and others have said they can’t see where ON wins a seat in the Lower House. They will chew into the LNP vote in safe Labor seats but will be cut off by the IND and preferences in rural areas. We might learn that, while obviously important, that primaries aren’t quite as important as we think. Eliminated Parties give preferences. In rural areas ON v LNP, ON will need in the mid 40s primary to be a chance as everyone else will have them near the bottom of their ballot. Same with ON v IND. LNP votes will leak like a sieve but everyone will have ON near the bottom. A couple of predictions were LNP 3-5 seats, IND 4, ON zero.

  49. B. S. Fairmansays:
    Friday, March 20, 2026 at 9:31 am
    Eston – It is always the same BS. Back when I was doing data analysis for the Child Support agency a couple of decades ago

    BSF
    I worked in Child Support agency, Canberra, at the turn of the century, when did you work?

  50. Diogenessays:
    Friday, March 20, 2026 at 3:58 pm
    Spence

    That was Ven, not me.

    Diogenes
    Although you are a doctor, you are still Diogenes to us, who are long PB posters. Dr. Dolittle is Dr. D to us. 🙂

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