With two days to go, The Advertiser has a YouGov South Australian state poll with result almost identical to both the last such poll a month ago, and Fox & Hedgehog’s result earlier this week. Labor is at 38%, up a point on the previous YouGov poll, with One Nation steady on 22%, Liberal down one to 19% and the Greens down one to 12%. Labor is credited with two-party leads of 59-41 over both One Nation and Liberal, which is in from 60-40 last time in the former case and unchanged in the latter.
Peter Malinauskas records an approval rating of 63%, down one, and a disapproval rating of 30%, up two. Ashton Hurn is up two on both measures, to 42% approval and 35% disapproval. Malinauskas’s lead as preferred premier is in from 63-20 to 62-23. The poll was conducted March 9 to 17 from a sample of 1265.
UPDATE: YouGov has a full release with lots of further detail, including regional breakdowns, and there is also now a DemosAU/Ace Strategies poll for InDaily that’s even worse for the Liberals than the others (Labor 37%, One Nation 23%, Liberal 17%, Greens 11%), both of which will be covered in a post I’ll have up this evening.
Saturday is one of those days I look forward to. An Election Day! Though I fear the counting and results festival may be over too quickly.
Looking forward to the redhead crowing like a rooster if ON win a seat or two. 😆
One thing I will point out though. Everyone talks about the doolally candidates she picks who cause the wheels to fall off after they’re elected. Well, from my observations, both in my own electorate and reading the bios of some of her candidates in the SA election, she has taken that fault on-board and rectified it by choosing ex-military to be her candidates. They are all about discipline. They would also be the basis for an Authoritarian government. 🙁
C@tmomma, Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 6:39 am:
C@t, that is an interesting observation. However, I think that Andrew Hastie (for the Liberals) is a bit of a counter example. I don’t know how disciplined he is in private life, but he sure isn’t a self-disciplined party member in terms of falling in behind the leader of the day.
“C@t, that is an interesting observation. However, I think that Andrew Hastie (for the Liberals) is a bit of a counter example. I don’t know how disciplined he is in private life, but he sure isn’t a self-disciplined party member in terms of falling in behind the leader of the day.”
@newy boy
Andrew Hastie was a disciplined MP who toe the party line for 10 years previously though. He only started going MAGA when he thought it was the best chance of getting the leadership. Before that there wasn’t a pattern of behaviour being undisciplined and I never seriously believed his reasons for resigning from the frontbench other then to undermine Sussan Ley.
I wonder how SA voters feel hearing Malinauskas saying he’s happy to work with Pauline and One Nation while leading a centrist Labor government, I’ll work with anyone from the far right to the far left
Gives One Nation more legitimacy than they deserve imo. I hope it doesn’t increase their vote
Comments were on AM this morning
@ Hard Being Green
I wonder if Mali is playing political mind games by saying he’d work with One Nation? What it does is yes give them legitimacy but also shuts out the Liberals and makes One Nation seem like a valid opposition. This in turn divides the right wing vote even further. It will probs drive the Libs wild to hear him talk up ON like this.
It’s One Nation though, playing politics with them featuring is risky more broadly imo
To be fair he did give them a little whack as well saying he had worked with Sarah Game until she left the party like all their people do, or similar
Another 70,260 early votes yesterday with the total now 274, 735.
A tale of two early voting booths: Walking home past the booth in Bragg complete with 5 Liberal, 3 Labor, 1 Green and 1 Jing Lee how to vote card volunteers and about 40 A-Frames with various corflutes and messaging. Friend went to vote in Florey and sent a picture of the booth with 1 Labor banner, 1 Labor A-Frame and a volunteer and a One Nation A-Frame with no volunteer.
@Notahorse He (Malinauskas) knows that a “cordon sanitaire” method of dealing with One Nation is not going to work in the long term as it’s only going to embolden them in the near future. Plus he also works with the Greens as well so it’s not like he has no history of needing the extremist vote to get some legislation passed.
C@t
Yes I noticed that as well. One of their guys sort of disappeared and withdrew but they said it was sickness.
With more people voting for them, they have better candidates. The only nutter was one of Antics Liberals and be really was a loon. He’d seen witches melt.
I saw what Mali said to Pauline. That’s just standard professional behaviour.
I am not saying this lightly. But the election on coming Saturday is one of the most significant elections of this country.
Peter Malisnaukus is probably the most popular leader in Australia right now. How he can keep PHON under check is probably the most important thing about this election.
The maths, the Diogenes, the Wat Tyler of the world may not like Peter Malisnaukus or what his government has done. Fair enough. The most important thing of Australian political class is to serve the Australian people.
But all of above people had to accept that to keep PHON not only under control but also destroy it is one of the most important thing the political class needs to do.
Notahorse
I don’t agree with your assessment. I do not want PHON to be the main opposition in any state assey or federal parliament. Never. That should not be acceptable to Labor party. Period.
TBM
True!
I don’t know why I am being targeted by that comment. I have made my personal feelings on Malinauskas known in the past but I have never claimed he isn’t popular or skilled, nor have I suggested he needs to be defeated. In fact, in these threads, most of my personal view has been that the rise of One Nation is the real threat in this election that needs to be fought. That’s where my anxiety lies. That and the post-election make-up of the LC might be something where legislation needs to go through someone on the hard right to get up.
Agree with Wat Tyler
My dislike of the Shoppie as a Labor nominee for Premier doesn’t mean I don’t want him to win against the field that is out there.
One Nation is extremely dangerous. I’m hopeful the unsung heroes will be a range of independents who are under the radar at the moment but pull prefs from everywhere.
I’m hoping as well the overhyped One Nation do not deliver as we saw with Reform UK and their recent by-election losses.
I find it absolutely hilarious that of all the things that could and would make South Australia relevant on the nationwide scale as far as elections are concerned, it was the timing of the rise of One Nation that did it. Nothing else. Just pure timing and circumstances that make South Australia the talk of the town across the nation.
Here’s Malinauskas reassuring the Shooter’s Association that he won’t restrict gun laws in SA, despite Bondi and the national agreement.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/18/gun-lobby-assured-south-australian-government-had-no-plan-to-tighten-firearm-laws-despite-state-agreeing-to-federal-crackdown
No wonder he’d be happy to work with Pauline. If ON hold the balance of power in the LC we’re in for an authoritarian government.
Typo/ autocorrect guys
“The maths, the Diogenes” Should read “The naths,vrhe Diogenes”
I’m the same as Wat and Corleone.
I’d caution Ven to think about why ON is so popular and it’s partly because the people don’t trust the political parties and Lib and Lab here aren’t very trustworthy. It’s all spin and very little genuine vision.
Mali is highly competent.
Wat “That’s where my anxiety lies. That and the post-election make-up of the LC might be something where legislation needs to go through someone on the hard right to get up.”
The left got 5/11 in 2018, 6/11 in 2022 and they’ll get 6/11 this time.
The current LC is 11/22 left and it will increase to 12/22. It’ll be the first time there’s been a left majority.
Looking at polling, it’s not impossible that the ALP only win 4 seats and the Greens 1, with 5 going between Liberals and One Nation, and the final one going to someone like Family First. That is the kind of scenario I dread. While it’s probably not the most likely scenario, it’s not an implausible one either. Until I see results reassuring me that is not the case, it will sit in the back of my mind. There’s always a degree of unpredictability when it comes to upper house results.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-19/some-first-nations-south-australians-to-vote-twice-this-weekend/106464282
In what has been described as a potential first for South Australia, some residents are preparing to vote in two separate elections on Saturday.
As well as voting in the state election, about 30,000 First Nations South Australians are also eligible to vote in the second SA Voice to Parliament election.
The Electoral Commission will count the Voice election results on March 30.
@Leroy This is part of the big picture in terms of the reason why Labor will be re-elected in a landslide. The Liberals just can’t help themselves when it comes to focusing on bullshit culture wars instead of actually enacting policies that actually effect people in a positive way like what the Labor party under Peter Malinauskas has been doing for the last 4 years.
A breakdown of the primary vote by region showed One Nation leading the Liberals in regional and rural SA – with One Nation pulling 39 per cent of the vote compared to the Liberal’s 15 per cent.
Hasanakos said the regional/rural breakdown “may be too flattering for One Nation” and that the big question on Saturday night would be how many votes the party, headed by Queenslander Pauline Hanson, netted overall.
He said the surge in One Nation support could see the Liberals, as earlier polls indicated, being at risk of being replaced as the official opposition.
Hasanakos said the most vulnerable regional seats likely to fall to One Nation were seats like Liberal Sam Telfer’s seat of Flinders on the Eyre Peninsula and Liberal Tim Whetstone’s seat of Chaffey in the Riverland, while independents like Lou Nicholson could also see success in unseating Finniss Liberal David Basham on the Fleurieu Peninsula. “The Labor vote has fallen throughout the campaign as One Nation’s momentum has grown and numerous independents and minor parties have thrown their hat in the ring,” he said. The polling indicated 39 per cent of people in the regions would vote One Nation.
https://www.indailysa.com.au/news/just-in/2026/03/19/who-is-voting-one-nation-exclusive-sa-polling-reveals-orange-spots
Penbo has gone
Lab 32
Lib 9
ON 2 (Narungga and Hammond)
Ind 4
It’s funny that the three mentioned above are different. That indicates partly that we just don’t know and also ON have a good chance of up to 5 seats, which is appalling beyond belief.
Are the voting tickets available anywhere? Not the how to vote cards, but the voting tickets lodged with ECSA for the purposes of lower house savings provisions.
I seriously doubt that 26% of centrist voters are actually voting for One Nation.
My election prediction is that Hurn is the sole survivor of the Liberal party. The donkey vote, leadership bonus, favourable preferences and Barossa Valley having a bit more of a small l liberal vote than other rural areas saves her. Otherwise the Liberals are completely wiped out by Labor in Adelaide, credible independents where they’re running, and PHON in the ultra conservative rural seats.
Greens might pick up Heysen if PHON’s savings provisions tickets really are two tickets putting the majors last. I think PHON voters just voting 1 will be surprisingly influential.
Dio
That’s why I don’t want to lock in any prediction, even if just for a bit of fun, there’s just too many unknowns to get a clear picture. As I said on the outset, this election serves as the first case study in the new polling environment. We don’t even know how accurate that polling is (i.e. how shy/loud One Nation support actually is) or how preferences are going to play out or what the 2 candidate races are going to be in many seats. Any attempt at a specific prediction of results would just be throwing ballpark numbers out there.
Also, after seeing how people on here get harassed for making reasonable but incorrect predictions in the past, I have no interest in being harassed and called “out of touch” because I over/under-estimated somebody’s support. That’s kind of taken the fun out of it.
I’m disappointed in the donkey vote order in Schubert. No complaints, them’s the rules but it doesn’t suit my mate Alice.
Thomas Brian Mutter @ #27 Thursday, March 19th, 2026 – 1:20 pm
If they see their One Nation candidate as a voice of reason against the major parties, they could. Don’t assume every self-identified centrist is politically engaged enough to care about party ideologies. Also, centrist at times can mean “I want government services and some government assistance available but I want a culturally conservative country with traditional values and less/no immigration.”
One possibility ( and it’s I only that) is that Malinauskis ia aware of undisclosed polling that, if followed through, suggests that ON will get 3 LC seats and with other non-Labor inclines, be able to reject Labor Bills. Pauline and Cory looked quite chirpy yesterday too.
At my pre-poll many people were openly taking the ON how to vote cards without trying to hide it, more than I’ve ever seen before. There’s no embarrassment about being a ON supporter anymore it seems, so many seats might have a 3-way contest. Latest Demos poll in Indaily has ALP 37%, ON 23%, Liberals 17%, Other 12%, Greens 11%.
Just to bring us back down to earth a little, I also recall anecdotes from 2019 about how voters going into the polling booth were warm and receptive to ALP and Green HTV volunteers but just walked past the Coalition ones and also what large smiles were on the faces of Bill Shorten and other Labor figures in the dying days of that campaign – in particular at the official launch.
A question from someone in NSW, for South Australians. Is there some effect on the emergence of One Notion in your midst reflecting the surge of interstate migration? Which areas are the incomers most settling and is this showing in the results of the surveys?
I doubt that interstate migration explains the rise of ON in SA, quite apart from the fact that ABS data suggests SA still experiences negative interstate migration (SA population growth is coming from overseas migration). Whatever the reasons may be for the ON surge nationally presumably would apply equally to SA. I remain at a loss to explain how suddenly after 30 years as a politician and with no known policy or legislative achievements, Pauline Hanson is now seen by nearly a quarter of the electorate as the “solution”.
Casey Briggs has a good chat about the South Australian election with Patricia Karvellas and Fran Kelly on that weekly podcast thing they regularly do – heard that on Newsradio earlier today!
And as I live in Sydney, and I probably know zilch about South Australia, I won’t even dare to make a prediction for Saturday night. However, the One Nation surge seems to be real, backed up by today’s Resolve Poll for NSW in today’s Herald, which shows Hanson’s party now taking as many votes off Labor as they are from the Liberals/Nationals.
Something to watch on Saturday night will be the One Nation vote in safe Labor Adelaide seats, and whether any Adelaide electorates become 2 party contests between the ALP and One Nation.
Electricity prices up 32% says abs,rents through roof,prop prices out of reach of young and migrant crime including terrorism acts rampant.
Why wouldn’t they vote One nation!
The next four years will be bad news in SA if the state labor government is re-elected as debt will be like Victoria’s labor state gov failures…
https://ipa.org.au/read/south-australia-on-victorian-trajectory-debt-set-to-double-in-just-5-years
My prediction:
2PP 60% to Labor.
Seats:
Labor 36
Greens 0
Others 4
One Nation 3
Libs 4
(may change later)
Having seen that the upper house Liberal HTV puts ON ahead of FF (I had assumed it’d be the other way), it looks likely like ON will get 3 seats and FF will miss out. Having said that, Liberals weren’t looking at getting much over 2 quotas anyway.
It still looks most likely that the left parties (Labor, Greens, Animal Justice) combined will get 6 seats unless their overall vote is less than polling suggests.
I see on-line pics with some ON htvs with a full distribution of lower house preferences and some open tickets.
Is there any scheme here or just local candidate choice.
Steven Marshall was a moderate Liberal premier. His attorney-general, Vicki Chapman, was far too progressive for the party “conservatives”. Hence the drift to the unhinged right.
“ I remain at a loss to explain how suddenly after 30 years as a politician and with no known policy or legislative achievements, Pauline Hanson is now seen by nearly a quarter of the electorate as the “solution”.”
100%. I just don’t get it. It is the biggest change in my lifetime in voting in Australia if it’s true.
I noticed that the Labor PV went down 6% in the last month in one poll and it all went to ON and indies.
You watch Mali and Ashton in the debates and I feel quite proud we have two such considered moderate leaders. They would cream most leaders in Australia for professionalism and communication and reason.
Yet ON has a hold. In SA where they have never been a force.
I just don’t get it. It’s as bad as Trump getting through the primaries and winning his first term. I just never contemplated it.
If anyone has a ON HTV in house of assembly with full preferences I’d like to see it.
@Diogenes at 6:19pm
Yeah, I feel the same way.
Is this basically the effect of Big Gina’s funding?
Big Clive tried the same back in 2013 and he hardly got this level of support, like just 1 House seat and a few Senators.
Predict:
Lab 61-39 Lib
Lab 60-40 ON
Lib 54-46 ON (closer than formerly polled, but will anyone even count this?)
No idea on seats, just don’t know it well enough, sorry. But probable that ON win a couple maybe more (Lower House I mean).
I don’t watch much TV or read papers (except online) and I have seen minimal about ON.
I got a ON pamphlet in my Unley letter box today and that’s the first I have seen here.
As I think c@t and I said, we must need to get out more because I just haven’t had anyone talk about ON. They must have some underground campaign that’s very effective.
As someone said above, they have crossed a legitimacy line and now people will support them without feeling embarrassed.
It’s the same as if the Greens crossed a 20% PV and it was pretty ho hum if you voted for them.
One Nation support comes from the areas of the nation with the least immigration and the lowest education. Their support is fuelled by disinformation from the Murdoch rags, hysterical sky news videos and foreign facebook pages pretending to be Australian. In Narungga half the population quit school before finishing year 12. 90% of the population are white. They’re voting against their own interests in order to benefit Gina Rinehart because they’ve been primed to hate people they’ve never met.
The problem is that these people can’t be reasoned with. They’ve stomped their feet, and decided that joining/voting for the racist One Nation is now okay, or that non-whites deserve being hated, and delude themselves that if you just got rid of all the non-whites that their life would improve by magic.
@Ghost of Whitlam
Good points there.
A question remains though, why does this work for Pauline when it didn’t work for Clive?
Probably answered by the fact that Big Gina and Pauline went over to the USA to learn things from MAGA so often in this past decade.